Search found 1883 matches

by Sammy_M
Sun Dec 27, 2015 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Powershares FTSE RAFI US 1000 turns 10
Replies: 4
Views: 755

Re: Powershares FTSE RAFI US 1000 turns 10

. The Powershares FTSE RAFI US 1000 (PRF) now has 10 years of live returns since inception on 12/19/2005. 10 yr annualized returns (according to M*) 7.74% = Powershares FTSE RAFI 1000 (PRF) 7.22% = iShares Russell 1000 (IWB) 6.71% = DFA US Large Value (DFLVX) Factor loads: https://www.portfoliovisu...
by Sammy_M
Thu Dec 24, 2015 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: "We Need to Fix the Bond Index"
Replies: 46
Views: 5367

Re: Bogle: "We Need to Fix the Bond Index"

Taylor likes TBM. It is certainly a simple solution. I've never been a fan and never really used it for several reasons: 1) I've got access to the G fund which I find superior for my nominal bond allocation (although it turns out I would have been better off in the F fund/TBM over the period of tim...
by Sammy_M
Tue Dec 22, 2015 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are Bogleheads Buying I-Bonds 2016?
Replies: 87
Views: 19782

Re: Are Bogleheads Buying I-Bonds 2016?

re: I Bonds. They may sound pretty boring however am I correct in stating the following: the effective rate for iBonds purchased now is 1.64% - this seems pretty reasonable considering a 4 yr CD is available at 1.76% on Discover.com Another comparison is 5 yr CDs at 2.25%. 5 year breakeven inflatio...
by Sammy_M
Tue Dec 22, 2015 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are Bogleheads Buying I-Bonds 2016?
Replies: 87
Views: 19782

Re: Are Bogleheads Buying I-Bonds 2016?

I'm going to skip 2015, and I will see what happens with the fixed rate in 2016 and make my decision based on that. I'm sticking with my EE Bond ladder, and will purchase the max allotment in January. Curious as to when (what age) you started buying your EE Bond ladder. Seems a good strategy to sta...
by Sammy_M
Sat Dec 19, 2015 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Motif instead of Precious Metals fund
Replies: 5
Views: 694

Re: Motif instead of Precious Metals fund

Why not move $50K in assets to Merrill Edge and then get 30 free trades per month and skip Motif altogether? Great question/suggestion! I previously thought to qualify for ME you have to have idle cash sitting with BoA/ML. But seriously, why all of this work for 3% of your portfolio? Why not just u...
by Sammy_M
Sat Dec 19, 2015 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Motif instead of Precious Metals fund
Replies: 5
Views: 694

Re: 3% Allocation?

I hold a 3% allocation to precious metal equities. Thus far I have held this in tax advantaged. Does the approach seem sensible to you? Sammy: Holding a 3% allocation in any one fund makes no meaningful difference in a portfolio -- only more cost and complexity--especially if you cut it up into ind...
by Sammy_M
Sat Dec 19, 2015 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Motif instead of Precious Metals fund
Replies: 5
Views: 694

Motif instead of Precious Metals fund

I hold a 3% allocation to precious metal equities. Thus far I have held this in tax advantaged. I'm thinking of freeing up this tax-advantaged space for other investments (like Emerging Markets) by moving to this approach: Construct a Motif of 30 stocks that closely mimics GDX. GDX only has 37 holdi...
by Sammy_M
Fri Dec 18, 2015 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO's 7 year predictions
Replies: 8
Views: 2636

Re: GMO's 7 year predictions

I wanted to resurrect this thread after looking at the current forecasts. US Large -2.1% US Small -0.8% Intl Large 0.0% Intl Small -1.3% Emerging 4.1% US Small is expected to outperform US Large now? Intl Small is expected to underperform US Small? I don't follow the rationale. The changes over 1.5 ...
by Sammy_M
Fri Dec 11, 2015 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR Style Premia Alternative (QSPIX) to close; AQR Style Premia Alternative II to open
Replies: 82
Views: 12997

Re: AQR Style Premia Alternative (QSPIX) to close; AQR Style Premia Alternative II to open

Interesting. I'm currently slightly under my target for QSPIX and was planning to add some QSPNX once the deviation was $2500 (min investment at Fidelity). Looks like I will have to accelerate that purchase with my 2016 IRA contribution and be slightly over target to keep QSPNX available as a rebal...
by Sammy_M
Tue Dec 08, 2015 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Equities Overpriced?
Replies: 58
Views: 7081

Re: Are Equities Overpriced?

Maynard F. Speer wrote:Only in October we had a 'momentum reversal' that should only occur once every 11,000 years through chance
I must have missed that. You're talking October 2015?
by Sammy_M
Sat Dec 05, 2015 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities fund COMT (ishares)
Replies: 14
Views: 1548

Re: Commodities fund COMT (ishares)

lack_ey, that was my understanding too. The popular ETF options on the board seem to have been USCI or DBC. Have these ETFs issued K1s with UBTI (Box 20 showing Code V)? Historically how large of a holding in one of these would be required to receive more than $1000 of such UBTI?
by Sammy_M
Sat Dec 05, 2015 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities fund COMT (ishares)
Replies: 14
Views: 1548

Re: Commodities fund COMT (ishares)

grok87 wrote:cannot he held in tax advantaged accounts
Please explain. Are you talking about this issue? viewtopic.php?t=132458#p1951257
by Sammy_M
Tue Dec 01, 2015 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab Alternatives to these ETFs
Replies: 2
Views: 648

Re: Schwab Alternatives to these ETFs

FNDF or EFV (I prefer the former, Russell Fundamental Developed ex-U.S. Large Company Index)
SCHZ
by Sammy_M
Sun Nov 29, 2015 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70/30 w/Treasuries Only or 60/40 w/Total Bond?
Replies: 23
Views: 4743

Re: Long term bonds and stocks?

A large investment in long term bonds might only make sense with a high allocation to stocks in the first place. dbr: Care to explain? Thank you and best wishes Taylor To quote Larry Swedroe in The Only Guide You'll Ever need for the Right Financial Plan... At equity allocations below 80 %, five-ye...
by Sammy_M
Sat Nov 28, 2015 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Precious Metals Fund (VGPMX)
Replies: 19
Views: 3335

Re: Precious Metals Fund (VGPMX)

What percentage of investors has the discipline to stay the course with an asset capable of withering away for an entire generation before reverting to its mean? ... I wouldn’t even venture a guess, but I’m pretty sure that the answer is not too far above zero. I can tell you the disenchantment tha...
by Sammy_M
Fri Nov 27, 2015 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Collateralized Commodity Futures Funds
Replies: 33
Views: 3244

Re: Collateralized Commodity Futures Funds

well there used to be this http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/weekly-commodity-reports/contango-report/7038-contango-report-lean-hogs-in-steep-backwardation.html but i haven't seen an update published recently. Too bad they stopped doing it. The Hard Assets Investor was showing the current roll retu...
by Sammy_M
Fri Nov 27, 2015 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Collateralized Commodity Futures Funds
Replies: 33
Views: 3244

Re: Collateralized Commodity Futures Funds

What is the best resource to view current levels of contango vs. backwardization for various commodities/commodity indices?
by Sammy_M
Thu Nov 26, 2015 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Collateralized Commodity Futures Funds
Replies: 33
Views: 3244

Re: Collateralized Commodity Futures Funds

Switched to PME, the only asset class that seems to have done worse.

Maybe I'll add back a few percent when there is less contango. http://www.researchaffiliates.com/Asset ... rview.aspx

Image
by Sammy_M
Tue Nov 24, 2015 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you look at momentum when considering whether to rebalance?
Replies: 20
Views: 1764

Re: Do you look at momentum when considering whether to rebalance?

small_index wrote:What asset classes are you rebalancing the most often?
Equities. Of late, emerging markets and precious metal equities (gold miners). All in tax advantaged accounts.
by Sammy_M
Mon Nov 23, 2015 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you look at momentum when considering whether to rebalance?
Replies: 20
Views: 1764

Re: Do you look at momentum when considering whether to rebalance?

I look for cues of change in momentum. I've commented quite a lot about this on the forum. It works for me, but not for RodC. I assume by that you mean buying on Really Bad Days? Interesting parallel thread :- https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=177653&p=2691262#p2687533 precisely...
by Sammy_M
Mon Nov 23, 2015 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you look at momentum when considering whether to rebalance?
Replies: 20
Views: 1764

Do you look at momentum when considering whether to rebalance?

I probably rebalance too often. I loosely follow a 5/25 rebalancing band approach, but at the same time, I am adding new money all along into asset classes that are down. An example of this is that my new contributions have been into PME and emerging markets. I want to buy into these beaten down ass...
by Sammy_M
Sun Nov 22, 2015 7:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The new profitability factor, US and int'l evidence
Replies: 172
Views: 17347

Re: The new profitability factor, US and int'l evidence

Profitability/quality is widely available now. A multi-factor approach is more appealing to me than component funds. I personally use AQR, but there are less expensive alternatives. For example, iShares FactorSelect and Enhanced ETFs https://www.ishares.com/us/strategies/smart-beta#all-smart-beta-et...
by Sammy_M
Tue Nov 17, 2015 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taxes on individual TIPS using tax software
Replies: 18
Views: 2475

Re: Taxes on individual TIPS using tax software

^sorry, that is indeed the one I meant.

Understood that you have to keep track of OID/market discount, but handling it at time of sale or redemption seems simpler, particularly if you are building a ladder with 1 or 2 year rungs.
by Sammy_M
Mon Nov 16, 2015 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Georgia Municipal Bonds
Replies: 18
Views: 3248

Re: Georgia Municipal Bonds

I was going to mention the T.Rowe Price one as well. Duration is 6.3. Around 30% below AA quality. So there is some term and credit risk. I would not buy individual muni bonds. If you're nearing retirement, note that GA is kind to its retirees from an income tax standpoint. You can exempt up to $35K...
by Sammy_M
Sun Nov 15, 2015 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taxes on individual TIPS using tax software
Replies: 18
Views: 2475

Re: Taxes on individual TIPS using tax software

In fact as long as the coupon is at least 0.125%, all Treasury notes and bonds (including TIPS) sold at the initial auction will either sell at par or at a discount less than the de minimis amount. (See this post .) However, if you buy a Treasury bond or note at a re-opening auction, the price can ...
by Sammy_M
Sun Nov 15, 2015 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where expected returns are highest, and should you go there
Replies: 75
Views: 9579

Re: Where expected returns are highest, and should you go there

Sammy, It's mistake to think munis are not taxed. They are taxed, just it's indirect. So say you can buy a 5 year CD at 2% and a 5 year AAA muni at 1.35%. Before even considering any default risk in the yield, the tax rate is 32%. Versus a Treasury at 1.65 the effective tax rate is 18%. That's the ...
by Sammy_M
Sat Nov 14, 2015 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax efficiency of PME
Replies: 5
Views: 660

Re: Tax efficiency of PME

Thanks grabiner. It seems to me that Motif would be a potential solution. This would be among the most sensible uses of their platform that I can envision. Benefits include zero expense ratio. Individual holdings allow a lot of flexibility for tax loss harvesting. While less than 30 securities, all ...
by Sammy_M
Sat Nov 14, 2015 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax efficiency of PME
Replies: 5
Views: 660

Re: Tax efficiency of PME

Is there reason to believe that ETFs (GDX, RING) will do better in this regard?
by Sammy_M
Sat Nov 14, 2015 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [10-Year TIPS Auction, November 19, 2015]
Replies: 9
Views: 1753

Re: TIPS Auction next Thursday

The 5 year auction is coming up next month too. Real yield is now 0.43 on the 2021. Breakeven inflation at around 1.24.
by Sammy_M
Sat Nov 14, 2015 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bridgewater Slashed Emerging Market ETF Holdings By 40%
Replies: 2
Views: 921

Bridgewater Slashed Emerging Market ETF Holdings By 40%

Bridgewater Slashed Emerging Market ETF Holdings (including Vanguard's) By 40%. I've been buying. Makes me wonder.

http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2 ... ing-shows/
by Sammy_M
Sat Nov 14, 2015 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax efficiency of PME
Replies: 5
Views: 660

Tax efficiency of PME

What is the expected tax efficiency of precious metal equities? Based on my research, it seems reasonable to hold these in taxable. 1. High volatility suggests they would be good for tax loss harvesting opportunities. 2. The newer ETFs have lots of carry forward losses. 3. Dividend yields are low. V...
by Sammy_M
Sat Nov 14, 2015 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the heck not market-time TIPS?
Replies: 29
Views: 4094

Re: Why the heck not market-time TIPS?

Is it really dangerous "market timing" to look at what's being offered and make a choice from among those options? For example today I could choose: A 5 year CD at about 2.3% A 5 year treasury at 1.7% A 10 year treasury at 2.3% An I-bond at 0.1%+inflation A 5 year TIPS at 0.5%+inflation A 10 year T...
by Sammy_M
Sat Nov 14, 2015 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where expected returns are highest, and should you go there
Replies: 75
Views: 9579

Re: Where expected returns are highest, and should you go there

Livesoft It's all about PREFERENCES, not absolutes So want most tax efficient assets in taxable and least in tax advantaged. So stocks (at least if passive/tax efficient) in taxable as preference and bonds, REITS, etc. in tax advantaged. Then all else equal international stocks preference in taxabl...
by Sammy_M
Wed Nov 11, 2015 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuations and market timing, and the current CAPE 10
Replies: 88
Views: 11486

Re: Valuations and market timing, and the current CAPE 10

My question is how does this apply to a GLOBAL investor within the equity portion of their allocation. Does one stay static with their domestic and foreign allocation, or perhaps shift based on global valuations vs. historical averages. Global PE10 as well as forecasts from GMO, RA, etc. all suggest...
by Sammy_M
Sun Nov 08, 2015 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the heck not market-time TIPS?
Replies: 29
Views: 4094

Re: Why the heck not market-time TIPS?

Something like this? It is based on Larry's original shifting approach, but I reduced by 0.5% yield per bracket. Yield Allocation Maturity >3% 75-100% 20 years 2-3% 50-75% 15 years 1-2% 25-50% 10 years < 1% 0-25% 5 years The shift is from/to short term high quality. I am using mostly stable value an...
by Sammy_M
Sun Nov 08, 2015 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taxes on individual TIPS using tax software
Replies: 18
Views: 2475

Re: Taxes on individual TIPS using tax software

That's helpful. For others that may be interested... Originally, all debt securities, options, rights, and warrants were to be considered covered securities as of January 1, 2014. Because of the complexity involved in accurately reporting cost basis information for debt instruments, the IRS has divi...
by Sammy_M
Sun Nov 08, 2015 6:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taxes on individual TIPS using tax software
Replies: 18
Views: 2475

Re: Taxes on individual TIPS using tax software

Thanks, that's good news. I was kind of spooked after reading #crunchers comments in this post a while back. What is the significance of the first of the year? A new reg, or just tracking a full year? And what is the relevant date for that? Settlement date on the 5 year auction appears to be the las...
by Sammy_M
Sat Nov 07, 2015 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taxes on individual TIPS using tax software
Replies: 18
Views: 2475

Taxes on individual TIPS using tax software

How difficult is it to do the tax reporting on individual TIPS using tax software like TurboTax, TaxAct, etc? I'm out of tax-advantaged space. I've also bought the max I-Bonds. I prefer an individual TIPS ladder rather than funds, but have not wrestled with tax reporting before. I am thinking of par...
by Sammy_M
Fri Nov 06, 2015 6:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When would you choose an I-bond over a CD? (opinions)
Replies: 15
Views: 2254

Re: When would you choose an I-bond over a CD? (opinions)

So many factors to consider. Do you have other savings, or older I-Bonds, that you could withdraw from if you got in a pinch? (CD early withdraw may be uncertain, but I-bonds is a certain "no" <1 year) Are you investing these funds short-term or long-term (rolling the CD into new ones)? What is your...
by Sammy_M
Thu Oct 29, 2015 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Precious metals mining stocks
Replies: 30
Views: 3567

Re: Precious metals mining stocks

If you buy precious metals stocks to diversify tail risk, then, in reality, you hope never to be rewarded by the precious metals stocks. In comparison to physical gold, I am not certain PME's offers as strong protection for catastrophic risks (geopolitical). However, they do offer exposure to posit...
by Sammy_M
Thu Oct 29, 2015 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Precious metals mining stocks
Replies: 30
Views: 3567

Re: Precious metals mining stocks

See http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/197/preci197.htm Conclusions While the long term return of precious metal bullion is close to the risk free rate the long term return for precious metal equity appears to be similar to that of common stock. Because the correlation of PME returns and other comm...
by Sammy_M
Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bogle: Tough Decade Ahead for Equity Investors"
Replies: 135
Views: 18222

Re: "Bogle: Tough Decade Ahead for Equity Investors"

Doesn't this methodology understate expected returns since it makes no adjustment for buybacks, etc. Yes, this is a good point. Since share buybacks were legally prohibited prior to 1982, stock dividend data before that year is not really comparable to dividend data afterwards. In Mr. Illmanen's de...
by Sammy_M
Fri Oct 23, 2015 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bogle: Tough Decade Ahead for Equity Investors"
Replies: 135
Views: 18222

Re: "Bogle: Tough Decade Ahead for Equity Investors"

For some historical perspective on Mr. Bogle's current asset return forecast, Antti Illmanen (who literally wrote the book, Expected Returns ), has shown expected portfolio returns since 1900 (chart below) — using mostly the same simple methodology as Mr. Bogle. Due to the current high valuations o...
by Sammy_M
Sat Oct 10, 2015 5:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Relative valuation US:EAFE:EM
Replies: 15
Views: 1480

Re: Relative valuation US:EAFE:EM

Thanks for sharing. I like the analogy of buying rental property in Orange County vs. Atlanta.

Here is a related thread with graphs. PE10 on US small caps are even more alarming.

I am personally sticking with my IPS, but am allowing US equities to stay on the low side of my 5/25 rebalance bands.
by Sammy_M
Thu Oct 08, 2015 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Country PE10 Update
Replies: 10
Views: 1294

Re: Country PE10 Update

Below is a country breakdown. Line length represents min and max. Blue dot represents current. I gather this relates to both graphs, i.e. the 10-yr min/max values and the current PE10, but can you help me with what the yellow-orange box with its top/bottom components represents? I looked through th...
by Sammy_M
Thu Oct 08, 2015 6:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Country PE10 Update
Replies: 10
Views: 1294

Country PE10 Update

PE10 Update as of 9/30/15. Source is the RAFI website.
Image

Below is a country breakdown. Line length represents min and max. Blue dot represents current.
Image
by Sammy_M
Wed Oct 07, 2015 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Index that Tracks Companies with no Dividends
Replies: 12
Views: 1462

Re: Index that Tracks Companies with no Dividends

I agree 30 individual stocks is not enough for diversification. However, if you’re using more diversified funds in tax-advantaged, it’s not a bad supplemental approach to achieve tax efficiency in a taxable account. For anyone interested, below I outline specific steps one can follow for what I feel...
by Sammy_M
Tue Oct 06, 2015 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Index that Tracks Companies with no Dividends
Replies: 12
Views: 1462

Re: Index that Tracks Companies with no Dividends

On second thought, I'll design a Motif of 30 stocks. Stay tuned :D
by Sammy_M
Tue Oct 06, 2015 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Index that Tracks Companies with no Dividends
Replies: 12
Views: 1462

Re: Index that Tracks Companies with no Dividends

I'm not aware of any. Before going the route of buying individual stocks, I'd

1. Invest in munis in taxable and put stocks in tax advantaged accounts
2. Go with VTCLX/VTMSX as mentioned above, which still pay dividends but are managed to be tax-efficient