Search found 10873 matches

by nedsaid
Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 553
Views: 60482

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Markets up smartly again today. Hopefully this thread doesn't jinx the rally. :wink: Not yet - we had yet another up day! Yes, we did. So not jinxed yet. On the other hand, when the other thread was changed from freefall to free fall, its power as a contrary indicator was ruined. So instead of bein...
by nedsaid
Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!
Replies: 61
Views: 5685

Re: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!

This has all happened before, the last half of the 1990's comes to mind. Perhaps productivity growth due to technology these companies finally get around to adapting? It could easily be the case that the eps growth in the LCG simply comes down as opposed to SCV doing better. Cliff Assness has made ...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 07, 2019 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett on value investing
Replies: 22
Views: 1904

Re: Warren Buffett on value investing

Aswath Damodaran – Laws of Valuation: Revealing the Myths and Misconceptions (FULL PRESENTATION) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c20_S-QgvsA This is outstanding (in my opinion). Damodaran is fantastic. EVA is a very intriguing approach. i love buffet and his folksy one-line zingers. truly. i also d...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 07, 2019 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows 10 / Office 2019 headache
Replies: 24
Views: 1577

Re: Windows 10 / Office 2019 headache

People have just over a year before the last security update will occur for Windows 7 (January 14, 2020). After that point they will be running at risk. I would suggest updating to windows 10 if your PC can run it, it has been pretty stable for my PCs. Resistance is futile, you will be assimilated!...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 07, 2019 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett on value investing
Replies: 22
Views: 1904

Re: Warren Buffett on value investing

Great summary thanks. I read his blog religiously. I sometimes wonder whether Amazon is a largely a profitless retail business that stumbled into a profit filled new business in cloud computing. The bet everyone is making is that they will either 1) find additional profit filled business (none to d...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 07, 2019 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Test of Warren Buffett's 90:10 Retirement Portfolio
Replies: 33
Views: 4050

Re: A Test of Warren Buffett's 90:10 Retirement Portfolio

I would not recommend a 90% stock/10% treasury allocation for any retiree unless they had very substantial pension and Social Security income. Such a portfolio would simply be too volatile for retirees. Such a portfolio would probably have lost over 40% during the 2008-2009 bear market. If they had...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 07, 2019 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: recent interview w/ Ted Benna - inventor of 401(k)
Replies: 8
Views: 543

Re: recent interview w/ Ted Benna - inventor of 401(k)

It would be very helpful to have an option to annuitize part of all of the balance upon retirement. In effect, pensionizing the 401(k), but that is another discussion. That option exists now, doesn't it? Well, yes. You can take all or a portion of your retirement kitty to an insurance company of yo...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 07, 2019 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett on value investing
Replies: 22
Views: 1904

Re: Warren Buffett on value investing

Aswath Damodaran – Laws of Valuation: Revealing the Myths and Misconceptions (FULL PRESENTATION) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c20_S-QgvsA This is outstanding (in my opinion). Damodaran is fantastic. EVA is a very intriguing approach. i love buffet and his folksy one-line zingers. truly. i also d...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 07, 2019 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 553
Views: 60482

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Markets up smartly again today. Hopefully this thread doesn't jinx the rally. :wink:
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 07, 2019 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Other Portfolios that aren't 3 fund
Replies: 55
Views: 6509

Re: Other Portfolios that aren't 3 fund

How about a 2-fund portfolio? Mix to get your favored stock/bond index: VT : Vanguard World Total Stock Index (equivalent mutual fund VTWSX ) BNDW : Vanguard World Total Bond Index (no equivalent single mutual fund) I don't personally do this (BNDW just came out this month!), but Bill Sharpe might ...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 07, 2019 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!
Replies: 61
Views: 5685

Re: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!

Hi Garland, some time ago Valuethinker posted on this topic and opined that perhaps more permanent changes in the markets and the economy may render the Value premium to an eternal discount. You touched on a couple of the issues above. I also think part of what happened was flight to quality, larger...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 07, 2019 1:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows 10 / Office 2019 headache
Replies: 24
Views: 1577

Re: Windows 10 / Office 2019 headache

People have just over a year before the last security update will occur for Windows 7 (January 14, 2020). After that point they will be running at risk. I would suggest updating to windows 10 if your PC can run it, it has been pretty stable for my PCs. Resistance is futile, you will be assimilated!...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 07, 2019 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: recent interview w/ Ted Benna - inventor of 401(k)
Replies: 8
Views: 543

Re: recent interview w/ Ted Benna - inventor of 401(k)

It would be very helpful to have an option to annuitize part of all of the balance upon retirement. In effect, pensionizing the 401(k), but that is another discussion. Yeah, but he said that he would require annuitization of all but 10%. That strikes me as a terrible idea. The whole idea of retirem...
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 07, 2019 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Test of Warren Buffett's 90:10 Retirement Portfolio
Replies: 33
Views: 4050

Re: A Test of Warren Buffett's 90:10 Retirement Portfolio

I would not recommend a 90% stock/10% treasury allocation for any retiree unless they had very substantial pension and Social Security income. Such a portfolio would simply be too volatile for retirees. Such a portfolio would probably have lost over 40% during the 2008-2009 bear market.
by nedsaid
Mon Jan 07, 2019 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: recent interview w/ Ted Benna - inventor of 401(k)
Replies: 8
Views: 543

Re: recent interview w/ Ted Benna - inventor of 401(k)

It was an interesting interview. I had known the basic story about 401(k)'s for a long time, pretty much a fluke. As I recall, it started as a way for high income managers to shelter some monies from tax. But the idea caught on and as they say, the rest is history. Another thing is that companies re...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 06, 2019 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett on value investing
Replies: 22
Views: 1904

Re: Warren Buffett on value investing

Hence my comments about people literally shopping themselves out of their own jobs, first at Wal-Mart and then at Amazon. Wal-Mart at least made good profits. Amazon made the all-time innovation in corporate finance in that you can keep investing so much back into the business that you don't really...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 06, 2019 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!
Replies: 61
Views: 5685

Re: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!

It's pretty clear what the contrarians are buying: Large-cap growth. And they've been handsomely rewarded for having done so since about 2009 (~ 1.3% CAGR alpha despite slightly less standard deviation vs. total market). I mean, is there even any investor left that ranks as at least casual, that ha...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 06, 2019 6:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows 10 / Office 2019 headache
Replies: 24
Views: 1577

Re: Windows 10 / Office 2019 headache

People have just over a year before the last security update will occur for Windows 7 (January 14, 2020). After that point they will be running at risk. I would suggest updating to windows 10 if your PC can run it, it has been pretty stable for my PCs. Resistance is futile, you will be assimilated!
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 06, 2019 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett on value investing
Replies: 22
Views: 1904

Re: Warren Buffett on value investing

Hence my comments about people literally shopping themselves out of their own jobs, first at Wal-Mart and then at Amazon. Wal-Mart at least made good profits. Amazon made the all-time innovation in corporate finance in that you can keep investing so much back into the business that you don't really...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 06, 2019 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett on value investing
Replies: 22
Views: 1904

Re: Warren Buffett on value investing

His comments about Amazon where interesting. Professor Damodaran said that he no longer thinks of Amazon.com as a retail company but as a disruption platform. It disrupts every business that it gets into. He said it was a difficult company to value partly because it is hard to tell what phase of it...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 06, 2019 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett on value investing
Replies: 22
Views: 1904

Re: Warren Buffett on value investing

The three things you need to know about Corporate Finance: 1) The investing decision (invest in assets that have a return greater than the minimum acceptable hurdle rate), 2) The financing decision (finding the right mix of debt and equity to fund your operations), and 3) the dividend decision (if y...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 06, 2019 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett on value investing
Replies: 22
Views: 1904

Re: Warren Buffett on value investing

Aswath Damodaran – Laws of Valuation: Revealing the Myths and Misconceptions (FULL PRESENTATION) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c20_S-QgvsA This is outstanding (in my opinion). Thank you. I am watching it now. "Valuation can never just be about the numbers. A good valuation always has a story embe...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 06, 2019 2:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Clark Howard looks at new 1040 tax form for 2018
Replies: 28
Views: 3754

Re: Clark Howard looks at new 1040 tax form for 2018

Schedule 1 ends at line 36 while schedule 2 starts at line 38. What happened to line 37? It's almost like it was "retired", similar to a sports team which retires a jersey number of its most famous/skilled athletes. E.g. "Line 37, why, line 37 was so AWESOME!" :D Someone will hang the 1040 Line 37 ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 06, 2019 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Clark Howard looks at new 1040 tax form for 2018
Replies: 28
Views: 3754

Re: Clark Howard looks at new 1040 tax form for 2018

I don't see how anything has been simplified. The total number of lines is about the same. The only difference is that now you need to create more subtotals and carry them from page to page. Not an issue if you're using software, but not a simplification either. It looks like they produced the new ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 06, 2019 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantitative Fund Discussion
Replies: 1
Views: 270

Re: Quantitative Fund Discussion

I listened to a recent podcast featuring Larry Swedroe. He did say that one of his frustrations and a big frustration of his firm was that the assets in the DFA funds were growing and thus the funds were experiencing higher market caps and less Value loading. Sort of reminds me of the criticism of t...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 06, 2019 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett on value investing
Replies: 22
Views: 1904

Re: Warren Buffett on value investing

The problem with valuing companies is that there are things that make a company valuable but that are difficult if not impossible to measure. In other words, intangible assets. Such things as the strength of management, the value of the company brand, the intellectual property, the potential of new ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 06, 2019 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Clark Howard looks at new 1040 tax form for 2018
Replies: 28
Views: 3754

Re: Clark Howard looks at new 1040 tax form for 2018

Well, we have a "simplified 1040" but then added 6 new schedules to do what the old 1040 used to. Sort of like the Paperwork Reduction Act. An oxymoron.
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 06, 2019 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoid rebalancing between risky assets. Let bulls run.
Replies: 33
Views: 2768

Re: Avoid rebalancing between risky assets. Let bulls run.

Reminds me of the Fidelity study brought up here a lot (some say it’s a myth) that found that the portfolios that performed best belonged to to people who forgot they had them (or worse). In other words, paws off the money. What was sadder is that portfolios that sat because of the death of their o...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 06, 2019 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Review my portfolio that shifts based on conditions (am I doing this right?)
Replies: 2
Views: 222

Re: Review my portfolio that shifts based on conditions (am I doing this right?)

Your ideas are pretty good but your problem is that many people on Wall Street agree with you and are trying to do the exact same thing. So we have markets that are very efficient. Not saying there aren't market inefficiencies out there, there are, but it is pretty tough for you and I to exploit the...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 06, 2019 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Review my portfolio that shifts based on conditions (am I doing this right?)
Replies: 2
Views: 222

Re: Review my portfolio that shifts based on conditions (am I doing this right?)

Hi all, Looking for advice on my strategy moving forward. Total noob, looking for people to poke holes in my thinking. Emergency funds: 6 months in high yield savings account Debt: none Tax filing status: Single Tax rate: 21% federal, 5% state Annual income: 70k, expecting high increase in next cou...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 06, 2019 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: No Safety Flags In Investing
Replies: 1
Views: 597

Re: Larry Swedroe: No Safety Flags In Investing

The US Stock Market does tend to rebound after big losses. We recently saw the US Stock market venture briefly into bear market territory (20% down from all-time highs) but has recently recovered some of its losses. My guess is that we have seen the bottom but I don't know. What I do know is that bu...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 06, 2019 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!
Replies: 61
Views: 5685

Re: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!

Mr. Swedroe's Conclusion: "My conclusion is that the most recent 10 years of performance is likely just another of those occasionally occurring but fairly long periods in which the value premium is negative." It is difficult (and expensive) to try to "beat the market." Best wishes. Taylor Meanwhile...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 06, 2019 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A cursory look at valuations
Replies: 19
Views: 1598

Re: A cursory look at valuations

Great charts. Definitely explains the out performance of the 3 Fund investors out there. With LCG having done so well from the bottom in 2009 to now (400% return) no wonder it is has shot out every other portfolio. Good luck. This is what I have been trying to say. US Total Stock Market is heavily ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 06, 2019 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!
Replies: 61
Views: 5685

Re: Bogle on Value tilted portfolios

Bogle strongly advocates passive investing in index funds, but even he expresses a preference towards value. Dave: Can you give a source? In his speech, The Telltale Chart Mr. Bogle stated: In any event, place me squarely in the camp of the contrarians who don't accept the inherent superiority of v...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 06, 2019 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 245
Views: 15558

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

I always find it interesting to note when posts pop up. This post questioning Int'l vs US pops up after a decade of underperformance. Similar threads pop up re Value when it was outperforming. Now everyone thinks the tilt alpha is gone. I recall ~12-14 years ago when Int'l was beating (both VINEX a...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 06, 2019 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A cursory look at valuations
Replies: 19
Views: 1598

Re: A cursory look at valuations

Valuing stocks based solely on P/E makes as much sense as determining you health only by taking your temperature. There are a lot more factors to be considered. Yes!. Like the ever important interest rates, which are at vey low levels. What else you have in mind? Kindly elaborate. H :greedy I mostl...
by nedsaid
Sun Jan 06, 2019 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A cursory look at valuations
Replies: 19
Views: 1598

Re: A cursory look at valuations

Great charts. Definitely explains the out performance of the 3 Fund investors out there. With LCG having done so well from the bottom in 2009 to now (400% return) no wonder it is has shot out every other portfolio. Good luck. This is what I have been trying to say. US Total Stock Market is heavily ...
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably
Replies: 88
Views: 7700

Re: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably

I have always invested across factors. I have always invested across asset classes and sub-asset classes. I have tried to get every kind of diversification possible into my portfolio. Larry, I am with you. The thing is, in 2007, I was the man. It was working. US Value and International Stocks were k...
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: BAM Advisor: Advice on alt funds and allocations
Replies: 54
Views: 2610

Re: BAM Advisor: Advice on alt funds and allocations

Thanks for all of the replies. Very interesting perspectives but I should have known that there would obviously be a strong DIY and DYA (dump your advisor) bias here on BH. What I was hoping for was educated opinions about the use of alt funds, Larry's recommendations, and BAM in general for someon...
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 245
Views: 15558

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

I always find it interesting to note when posts pop up. This post questioning Int'l vs US pops up after a decade of underperformance. Similar threads pop up re Value when it was outperforming. Now everyone thinks the tilt alpha is gone. I recall ~12-14 years ago when Int'l was beating (both VINEX a...
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 245
Views: 15558

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

In another thread on international investing, this question was asked but didn't gain any traction (as of yet). I think it's a great question, perhaps the question , and have my theories but would like others' views as well. Mr. Bogle’s views on capitalism, entrepreneurship, work ethic, transparenc...
by nedsaid
Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: BAM Advisor: Advice on alt funds and allocations
Replies: 54
Views: 2610

Re: BAM Advisor: Advice on alt funds and allocations

My BAM advisor recently recommended adding the following alts to my portfolio. Her reasons for adding these are increased diversification and decreased risk. I know that Larry Swedroe has been promoting these but would like to get reactions here. After these additions, here is my allocation: Equity...
by nedsaid
Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CPA suggesting I don't contribute max to 401k this year?
Replies: 38
Views: 5263

Re: CPA suggesting I don't contribute max to 401k this year?

Your first priority is to make decisions that make economic and lifestyle sense. Do you really want to eat beans and weenies and live like a pauper just to maximize savings and to minimize taxes? Obviously, taxes are a big factor in economic decisions but not the only factor. Pretty much, I tell peo...
by nedsaid
Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 166
Views: 34726

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

I personally have appreciated your detailed reviews of your own portfolio as well Nedsaid. I also am a believer in quantitative methods, specifically quality and value like you have tried to target with your portfolio. I have taken a different view from some other readers though. I still believe th...
by nedsaid
Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10061
Views: 1781898

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

The stock market is dropping again today. But we have been seeing a lot of this, up one day and down the next. Actually the trend today is mostly up since the down open (< 60 points down now). Things can certainly change in the blink of an eye now. Seemed like the market jumped over a hundred point...
by nedsaid
Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10061
Views: 1781898

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

The stock market is dropping again today. But we have been seeing a lot of this, up one day and down the next.
by nedsaid
Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities objectively considered
Replies: 111
Views: 7282

Re: Annuities objectively considered

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:06 am
I'd probably just do my own inflation adjustments by buying additional SPIAs down the road to increase my income.
Can't speak for him obviously, but I would expect that Dr. Wade Pfau would recommend the same thing. He favors the fixed SPIA over the inflation adjusted SPIAs.
by nedsaid
Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 166
Views: 34726

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

Fishing50, thanks for your response. This project is an unusual one, it is a way of providing transparency to anyone who wonders if I know what I am talking about. After all, I have dispensed a lot of advice here. I also saw it as a way of clarifying my own thinking about my own investments. Also wa...
by nedsaid
Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invesco to close two micro cap ETFs
Replies: 20
Views: 1323

Re: Invesco to close two micro cap ETFs

One reason to buy ETFs from a larger ETF provider like iShares or Vanguard. You also want to look for sufficient trading volume to keep anything other than a miniscule premium or discount from developing. Also want to look for ETFs that have lots of dollars invested in them. Lots of the really smal...