Search found 10428 matches

by nedsaid
Sun Nov 04, 2018 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 6890

Re: Is Small Value Still A Winner?

needsaid, Since you mentioned his name can you help me with this idea for my 22 year old son that puts $5500 into a Roth IRA each year. What about the Paul Merriman idea of the 2 fund Target Dated Fund with svc fund for a young person starting to invest. Does this make sense. 90% TDF 10% scv 80% TD...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 04, 2018 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy Unpopular Stocks?
Replies: 9
Views: 1109

Re: Buy Unpopular Stocks?

UpperNwGuy wrote:
Sun Nov 04, 2018 6:14 pm
cheese_breath wrote:
Sun Nov 04, 2018 1:24 pm
Just buy S&P 500 or TSM and you get the popular and unpopular.
^^^^ THIS!
Except that the market over weights the popular stocks. Popular has higher market caps than unpopular. That is why Paul Merriman splits his stock portfolio between Indexes and Value.
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 04, 2018 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Regret
Replies: 114
Views: 12866

Re: Diversification Regret

Perhaps we will be down to the Zero Fund portfolio at the rate we are going. Hi nedsaid - That line catches my attention every time. Well said. It never ceases to amaze me that Bogleheads of all people fall for short termism. If a favorite asset class stops outperforming, forum members just drop it...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 04, 2018 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Regret
Replies: 114
Views: 12866

Re: Diversification Regret

Perhaps we will be down to the Zero Fund portfolio at the rate we are going. Hi nedsaid - That line catches my attention every time. Well said. It never ceases to amaze me that Bogleheads of all people fall for short termism. If a favorite asset class stops outperforming, forum members just drop it...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 04, 2018 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 6890

Re: Market-Weight in U.S. Stocks

... Just over 50% of the market cap of the US Total Stock Market is in just 100 stocks. So you have a pretty strong tilt towards Mega-Caps and Mega-Cap Growth at that. Just 3% of US stock market capitalization is Small Value. Just 9% of stocks are Small-Cap and Micro-Cap. Another 18% are Mid-Cap. S...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 04, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 6890

Re: Is Small Value Still A Winner?

Nedsaid, Agree. Got to admit though, that quality/profitability sort of gives me the heebie jeebies. It seems to push everything in a growthy direction, which then makes me wonder why I’m tilting at all. In fact Larry has said that one positive additional side effect of quality/profitability screen...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 04, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Sometimes, It’s Bonds For the Long Run
Replies: 72
Views: 5916

Re: WSJ: Sometimes, It’s Bonds For the Long Run

William J. Bernstein has also commented on this in his essay, only two centuries of data. Dr. Bernstein went further than this, he said in his book The Three Pillars of Investing a couple of things. First, as societies get wealthier, investment returns decrease. Second, over very, very long periods...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 04, 2018 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 6890

Re: Market-Weight in U.S. Stocks

Diversifying across Value and Growth, Small and Large should give you a less volatile portfolio. You can't get this with a Total Market Index, you need to tilt to get factor diversification. Bogleheads: Sorry, I disagree. Total Stock Market Index Funds ALREADY hold the U.S. market weight in Value, ...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 04, 2018 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy Unpopular Stocks?
Replies: 9
Views: 1109

Re: Buy Unpopular Stocks?

Park, you are on to something here. We pretty much are singing from the same hymn book. Wall Street is an expectations game and low expectations are easier to beat than high expectations. One would expect this to be self-evident but some folks here are pretty fanatical about efficient market theory....
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 04, 2018 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Regret
Replies: 114
Views: 12866

Re: Diversification Regret

Perhaps we will be down to the Zero Fund portfolio at the rate we are going. Hi nedsaid - That line catches my attention every time. Well said. It never ceases to amaze me that Bogleheads of all people fall for short termism. If a favorite asset class stops outperforming, forum members just drop it...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 04, 2018 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 6890

Re: Is Small Value Still A Winner?

I believe all the factors are stronger in small stocks: value stronger in small, momentum stronger in small, profitability stronger in small. People have argued whether or not there is a risk premium associated with size. I believe there is. Whether there is or not though, one could rationally tilt...
by nedsaid
Sun Nov 04, 2018 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 6890

Re: Is Small Value Still A Winner?

Furthermore, it seems logical to not only diversify across asset classes but also across factors. In the old days, we used to call them investment styles. You can't help but notice that Growth and Value take turns outperforming each other. Ditto with Large and Small. Same with US and International....
by nedsaid
Sat Nov 03, 2018 12:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: no dividends in index funds!
Replies: 95
Views: 9247

Re: no dividends in index funds!

I miss the dividends I got from the blue chip powerhouses, such as AT&T , Dominion, Norfolk Southern. Now, will 5 index funds my dividends are puny. I would like to find funds (maybe Wellington) where I could get back to receiving some heavy dividends. Index funds do pay dividends but maybe not as ...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 02, 2018 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen Unconventional Success
Replies: 97
Views: 8487

Re: David Swensen Unconventional Success

It's been chewed over here repeatedly, so I don't know that anyone has much new to say. I will point out, once more, that the book outlines a series of principles for portfolio construction and that the Marketwatch version (known as the reference portfolio in the book) is only one possible applicat...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 02, 2018 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Individual investors should have access to Private Equity"
Replies: 46
Views: 3414

Re: "Individual investors should have access to Private Equity"

Larry Swedroe has a couple of articles on this. Pretty much he says that Small Cap Value is a good substitute for private equity. Found one here: https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-private-equity-no-bargain?nopaging=1 Another one: https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-c...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 02, 2018 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen Unconventional Success
Replies: 97
Views: 8487

Re: David Swensen Unconventional Success

Over long time periods, a two fund portfolio of the S&P 500 and Investment Grade Intermediate Term Bonds should do just fine. It is a very simple but effective portfolio. I for one, would prefer to have broader diversification than this. I want International diversification and own both Internationa...
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 02, 2018 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is an "advanced" investor?
Replies: 34
Views: 2566

Re: What is an "advanced" investor?

Part of my definition of an advanced investor would be emotional control, someone able to resist the greed and fear emotions. Pretty much being able to hold on to your stocks during a discouraging bear market.
by nedsaid
Fri Nov 02, 2018 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Regret
Replies: 114
Views: 12866

Re: Diversification Regret

I am glad someone weighed in on this, reminding Bogleheads that diversification is still important. I have been joking about the "one fund portfolio" or the S&P 500. International isn't doing well in 2018 and neither are bonds. The stock market is up and down, up again and down again, and so forth i...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 01, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen Unconventional Success
Replies: 97
Views: 8487

Re: David Swensen Unconventional Success

I had hoped that Unconventional Success would have been updated since it was published in 2005. The flip side would be perhaps nothing has changed. Well this is a "Stay the Course" forum, or at least it is supposed to be. Probably the best thing is to write one great book and never write another on...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 01, 2018 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 6890

Re: Is Small Value Still A Winner?

Taylor, Mr. Bogle's "Telltale Chart" speech has been pretty effectively debunked. Indeed our own Siamond has done work on this and it contradicts Bogle's assertions. nedsed: I am not smart enough to know whether Mr. Bogle or Siamond is correct. I DO know it probably doesn't matter: "Using past perf...
by nedsaid
Thu Nov 01, 2018 12:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 6890

Re: Bogle: "The Telltale Chart"

Bogleheads: For those of us who believe in the wisdom of Jack Bogle, you will find his opinion about small-value stocks here: The Telltale Chart Best wishes Taylor Taylor, Mr. Bogle's "Telltale Chart" speech has been pretty effectively debunked. Indeed our own Siamond has done work on this and it c...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is market cap weighting a dumb idea?
Replies: 64
Views: 2978

Re: Is market cap weighting a dumb idea?

Market Cap weighting is a good idea because it ensures your portfolio will be tilted towards the largest and most successful companies. This gives the portfolio a bit of a Quality tilt. The top 100 companies by market cap are just over 50% of the Total US Stock Market Index market cap. So Total Mark...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: PRWCX (T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Fund)
Replies: 5
Views: 516

Re: PRWCX (T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Fund)

T. Rowe Price is a firm that I have admired for many years. Paul Merriman, as I recall, is a fan and Larry Swedroe said nice things about them. They have a Value orientation, have a long term outlook, and they have experienced management. Of the active management firms, they and American Funds are p...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 6890

Re: Is Small Value Still A Winner?

I don't know if SCV will repeat it's returns in future years, but I've decided to tilt my portfolio to SCV significantly (40%). I was conflicted about choosing Small Cap Blended or Value, but in the end decided to stick with SCV. My reasoning is simply that if there is indeed a SCV premium I would ...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 6890

Re: Is Small Value Still A Winner?

Are you sure about that? Yes, using portfoliovisualizer. Vanguard's small value fund is not the best. Try IJS. VBR also outperforms VTI though going from 2008-2018 according to their site. If you go from Jan 1008 to today, IJR 10.07%, VBR 9.69%, VTI 9.11% CAGR. If you go from Oct 2008 to today, VTI...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 31, 2018 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7810
Views: 1604808

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

That's right, I am blaming it all on the month of October. Then, by extension, are you also blaming Pope Gregory XIII ? Well, I guess there is a lot of blame to go around. The hedgies, skittish mutual fund managers, the "Soar" thread, Cliff Asness, the month of October, and now I suppose Pope Grego...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 31, 2018 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen Unconventional Success
Replies: 97
Views: 8487

Re: David Swensen Unconventional Success

Nedsaid - I even have International REITs. They have not performed as I thought. On one hand someone would say great compared to U.S. REITs as that’s diversification. On the other hand it has been more complexity, higher costs, less return. Again, my comments about Bogleheads abandoning diversifica...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE: We Bring Bad News To Life!
Replies: 35
Views: 4706

Re: GE: We Bring Bad News To Life!

My guess about GE going wrong is that they lost too many really great people. When you have a program where the bottom 10% of employees get fired every year, this has to have a devastating effect upon morale. Not arguing for lifetime employment or for keeping incompetent employees but my guess is th...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Ignore Politics In Investing
Replies: 7
Views: 847

Re: Larry Swedroe: Ignore Politics In Investing

Pretty much that is what I have done. Ignore politics when it comes to investing and just stay with the plan.
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's Buying General Electric?
Replies: 39
Views: 4573

Re: Who's Buying General Electric?

GE, otherwise known as Our Lady of Perpetual Disappointment, remains a part of my portfolio. I keep GE mainly to have something to write about on the Boglehead's Forum and as a reminder not to buy overhyped stocks. I do like their new CEO, if he can't turn this thing around, no one can. I keep it ar...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a declining bond market a prescient warning of a declining stock market?
Replies: 10
Views: 982

Re: Is a declining bond market a prescient warning of a declining stock market?

No. Historically, stocks and bonds have moved completely independently of each other. Except for 1984-1999. But yes, this is mostly true. Not sure what you mean. Are you asserting positive correlation or negative? The correlation of VFINX and FBNDX (a Fidelity bond fund that goes back to 1984) was ...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7810
Views: 1604808

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I suppose tonight the anchors on Nightly Business Report will attribute two days of strong performance in the stock market to the re-emergence of the "Freefall" thread on the Bogleheads Forum. Probably figures into the algorithms of major hedge funds. :wink: Kidding aside, it has been a relief to se...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a declining bond market a prescient warning of a declining stock market?
Replies: 10
Views: 982

Re: Is a declining bond market a prescient warning of a declining stock market?

nisiprius wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:54 am
No. Historically, stocks and bonds have moved completely independently of each other.
Except for 1984-1999. But yes, this is mostly true.
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen Unconventional Success
Replies: 97
Views: 8487

Re: David Swensen Unconventional Success

Nedsaid - I even have International REITs. They have not performed as I thought. On one hand someone would say great compared to U.S. REITs as that’s diversification. On the other hand it has been more complexity, higher costs, less return. Again, my comments about Bogleheads abandoning diversifica...
by nedsaid
Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen Unconventional Success
Replies: 97
Views: 8487

Re: David Swensen Unconventional Success

Hi nedsaid - I have stayed diversified with International and REITs. I agree that years ago on the forum TIPS, REITs, and International were the rage. I think it is fair to say there are no where near the threads and posts on TIPS and REITs. There have been threads and posts questioning the need fo...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Changing Asset Allocation Based On Market Forecasts - Market Timing?
Replies: 7
Views: 710

Re: Changing Asset Allocation Based On Market Forecasts - Market Timing?

Yes, this is market timing. I would not recommend doing this except during extremes of market valuations and sentiment. These are rare events, perhaps occurring three maybe four times in an investor's lifetime. The great buying opportunities in my lifetime were after the 1973-1974 and the 2008-2009 ...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7810
Views: 1604808

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

My take is that we are still in October and historically October has been a scary month for stock investors. I still have vivid memories of the October 1987 crash during which I lost hundreds of dollars and I saw my financial life flash before my eyes. From the history books, we remember that the bi...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 30, 2018 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Spreading the Risk - World Stock versus S&P 500?
Replies: 11
Views: 1552

Re: Spreading the Risk - World Stock versus S&P 500?

...And, in a related newbie question, why would anyone invest in an index such as the Dow Jones?... I strongly suspect that you are looking at price indexes, not total return indexes. Point #1: very few people do invest in the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA. I only know of one index fund/ETF tha...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 30, 2018 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen Unconventional Success
Replies: 97
Views: 8487

Re: David Swensen Unconventional Success

I am a little surprised at the lack of responses. I would have thought that a thread on David Swensen would have received many more responses. Perhaps the Yale Portfolio is out of favor. It's been chewed over here repeatedly, so I don't know that anyone has much new to say. I will point out, once m...
by nedsaid
Tue Oct 30, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen Unconventional Success
Replies: 97
Views: 8487

Re: David Swensen Unconventional Success

Alas, Valuethinker, I was not a great investor. My Value tilts have caused me to trail the market since the 2008-2009 financial crisis and bear market. I remember crying in my root beer over the 2018 New Year's weekend. Surprisingly, I have done better than a lot of the "lazy" portfolios listed on ...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen Unconventional Success
Replies: 97
Views: 8487

Re: David Swensen Unconventional Success

Was Swenson's out performance statistically significant, or was it just a "thousand monkeys, at a thousand type writers penning a Shakespeare novel" phenomenon? There must be many thousand on people running endowments, just by random chance some will greatly outperform. I don't see how that is much...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I'm 100% stocks
Replies: 149
Views: 17163

Re: Why I'm 100% stocks

Two portfolios over past 10 years: 1. 100% VTI returning 9.8% CAGR 2. 80% VTI + 20% EDV (ultra long duration treasury bonds) One of these returned more *with* less risk, can you guess which one? https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endY...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen Unconventional Success
Replies: 97
Views: 8487

Re: David Swensen Unconventional Success

Alas, Valuethinker, I was not a great investor. My Value tilts have caused me to trail the market since the 2008-2009 financial crisis and bear market. I remember crying in my root beer over the 2018 New Year's weekend. Surprisingly, I have done better than a lot of the "lazy" portfolios listed on M...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Active Managers Fall Short In Emerging Markets
Replies: 2
Views: 311

Re: Larry Swedroe: Active Managers Fall Short In Emerging Markets

I would point out that not all indexes are created equal. There are different Emerging Markets indexes and they are constituted in different ways. Some controversy as to how much China should be weighted in these indexes as China isn't really open or transparent. I have joked that Bogleheads don't s...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7810
Views: 1604808

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

The passive investor takes the prices produced by active investors in aggregate and holds all equities at all times. Active investors don't hold all equities at the individual level, only as a group. They are picking up and dumping holdings, trying to get the better of each other. Some will, some w...
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the Problem with Broker Advice? It's not Advice.
Replies: 16
Views: 2069

Re: What's the Problem with Broker Advice? It's not Advice.

Rick Ferri wrote:
Mon Oct 29, 2018 6:42 am
As long as the conflicts of interest are disclosed, they are not an issue with regulators. But I wonder how many people actually read the fine print.
The bold print giveth, the fine print taketh away.
by nedsaid
Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen Unconventional Success
Replies: 97
Views: 8487

Re: David Swensen Unconventional Success

Was Swenson's out performance statistically significant, or was it just a "thousand monkeys, at a thousand type writers penning a Shakespeare novel" phenomenon? There must be many thousand on people running endowments, just by random chance some will greatly outperform. I don't see how that is much...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 28, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the Problem with Broker Advice? It's not Advice.
Replies: 16
Views: 2069

Re: What's the Problem with Broker Advice? It's not Advice.

Rick, this is interesting. Good to know that "objective" advice isn't always objective.
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 28, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Timber as an alternative - didn't work so well...
Replies: 34
Views: 5457

Re: Timber as an alternative - didn't work so well...

To me, this mainly illustrates not "investing" in what you don't understand. There's a lot of misunderstanding in regard to this area. Untold number of stories where it didn't work out....untold number where it did. I didn't read this article (due to paywall, but have seen several like it). Close p...
by nedsaid
Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Biggest Stock Scams Of All Time"
Replies: 4
Views: 1485

Re: "The Biggest Stock Scams Of All Time"

Bogleheads: This is a short and fascinating article showing the importance of "Diversification." The Biggest Stock Scams Of All Time Best wishes Taylor The article illustrates more the dangers of individual stock investing than it does lack of diversification. That is a story can sound good on the ...