Search found 10886 matches

by nedsaid
Sun Dec 30, 2018 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA says stick to your plan
Replies: 16
Views: 1891

Re: DFA says stick to your plan

This goes to show that Mr. Bogle is human like the rest of us. Actually, his philosophy has been fairly steady over the years, though like many of us has experimented. This also shows that he is less doctrinaire than what many here believe. So "Mr. Stay the Course" is actually "Mr. MOSTLY Stay the ...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 30, 2018 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Algos/HFT and the media hurt the retail investor ?
Replies: 78
Views: 2120

Re: Algos/HFT and the media hurt the retail investor ?

No logical reason for the Dow to fluctuate 1,000 points or more in a day but it happens when the computers go crazy. What? There's a perfectly logical reason. It's the fact that markets change on a percentage basis and "points" have nothing to do with percentages. This is completely predictable. Wh...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 30, 2018 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Algos/HFT and the media hurt the retail investor ?
Replies: 78
Views: 2120

Re: Algos/HFT and the media hurt the retail investor ?

No logical reason for the Dow to fluctuate 1,000 points or more in a day but it happens when the computers go crazy. What? There's a perfectly logical reason. It's the fact that markets change on a percentage basis and "points" have nothing to do with percentages. This is completely predictable. Wh...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 30, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities objectively considered
Replies: 111
Views: 7291

Re: Annuities objectively considered

The problem with what I was offered was that there was no death benefit. So if I bought today and died before age 65, my heirs would get zero. That is part of the deal. If you buy car insurance and don't have an accident you don't get your money back. If you buy homeowners insurance and your house ...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 30, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Algos/HFT and the media hurt the retail investor ?
Replies: 78
Views: 2120

Re: Algos/HFT and the media hurt the retail investor ?

We all want to go to heaven but we don't want to do what it takes to get there. We all want cheap $4.95 brokerage trades, increasing liquidity and market efficiency, lower bid/ask spreads but we blanch at the higher volatility sometimes caused by algorithms and high frequency trading. As for me, I ...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 30, 2018 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities objectively considered
Replies: 111
Views: 7291

Re: Annuities objectively considered

@nedsaid. Fidelity is just not competitive on their SPIA and deferred income annuity. I ran on immediate annuity.com and their rate for a 59 year old getting income at 65 based on 200,000 premium was $1473 per month and if you want return of premium prior to 65 if you pass you reduce it to $1394 pe...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 30, 2018 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is SPIA appropriate for us later on?
Replies: 5
Views: 568

Re: Is SPIA appropriate for us later on?

Larry Swedroe is a good source regarding annuities in retirement. Below is a link to an article that should address your questions. https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-12?nopaging=1 Below is a link to a good article from immediateannuities.com The article is written by Boglehe...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 30, 2018 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Algos/HFT and the media hurt the retail investor ?
Replies: 78
Views: 2120

Re: Algos/HFT and the media hurt the retail investor ?

We all want to go to heaven but we don't want to do what it takes to get there. We all want cheap $4.95 brokerage trades, increasing liquidity and market efficiency, lower bid/ask spreads but we blanch at the higher volatility sometimes caused by algorithms and high frequency trading. As for me, I d...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 30, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities objectively considered
Replies: 111
Views: 7291

Re: Annuities objectively considered

There's one annuity product that's worth buying, and that's a single premium immediate annuity. And that's only because it gets around the ban on tontines. With SPIAs, 100% of the money put into the system gets turned into income that retirees can (and should) spend. Standard investments have the p...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 30, 2018 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Bond Funds
Replies: 101
Views: 4058

Re: Emerging market bonds as part of your equity allocation

I have really enjoyed this thread which is based on a Vanguard white paper on this topic. What I would caution is what I call asset class collector syndrome. I recognize this as I am an asset class collector myself. Pretty much, slicing the pizza into smaller and smaller pieces hoping that somehow i...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 30, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: any reason not to sell my REIT (VNQ)
Replies: 13
Views: 1042

Re: any reason not to sell my REIT (VNQ)

I'm surprised at the responses with so little information provided. Is there a consensus that REITs are unilaterally universally bad? I was just considering buying some. No. The question is not about holding REIT. The question is about holding REIT in a taxable account. REITs are NOT tax-efficient ...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 30, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Stocks Mitigate Secular Bear Markets?
Replies: 43
Views: 3078

Re: Dividend Stocks Mitigate Secular Bear Markets?

Here is a presentation of Jeremy Siegal’s research results making the case for dividend yields, including a lower drawdown in the 1970’s: http://investmentmoats.com/money-management/dividend-investing/what-history-tells-us-about-investing-in-dividend-income-stocks/ Thank you. I have always liked di...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 30, 2018 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA says stick to your plan
Replies: 16
Views: 1891

Re: DFA says stick to your plan

This goes to show that Mr. Bogle is human like the rest of us. Actually, his philosophy has been fairly steady over the years, though like many of us has experimented. This also shows that he is less doctrinaire than what many here believe. So "Mr. Stay the Course" is actually "Mr. MOSTLY Stay the C...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 30, 2018 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard personal advisor service (PAS) for high net worth?
Replies: 70
Views: 6430

Re: Vanguard personal advisor service (PAS) for high net worth?

One of the issues of working with VPAS or any other service for that matter is the differences in the expertise and experience of the people. Some folks are better than others when it comes to financial advice. You got someone less experienced. There is a formula, an algorithm that works behind the...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 30, 2018 12:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QE, massive crash, Dow 3000?
Replies: 39
Views: 5804

Re: QE, massive crash, Dow 3000?

QE is widely misunderstood. Many think of it as buying and selling bonds with the cash flowing directly into and out of the economy. But I've read a couple of articles that by some balance sheet math it can be shown that the money spent on bonds ends up going into bank reserves with the fed. It doe...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 30, 2018 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Bond Funds
Replies: 101
Views: 4058

Re: Emerging market bonds as part of your equity allocation

Today I read an interesting paper from Vanguard research: Emerging-market bonds: a fixed income asset with equity-like returns (and risks) Summary : EM Government Bonds have fairly high (i.e. equity-like) return and risk. Most EM Govt. Bonds are investment grade (~60%) and most have durations less ...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 29, 2018 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Stocks Mitigate Secular Bear Markets?
Replies: 43
Views: 3078

Re: Dividend Stocks Mitigate Secular Bear Markets?

My take is that dividends help during bear markets, particularly when reinvested back into stocks. When a company declares a dividend, money is distributed out of their coffers. This lowers the book value of the company by that amount. If you reinvest the dividends back in the company’s stock, you ...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 29, 2018 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Stocks Mitigate Secular Bear Markets?
Replies: 43
Views: 3078

Re: Dividend Stocks Mitigate Secular Bear Markets?

When I look over the data that I"ve found, my conclusion is that in a tax advantaged account, dividends modestly decrease the impact of secular bear markets and usually modestly decrease the impact of cyclical bear markets. The conventional wisdom seemed to change after the 2008-2009 bear market an...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 29, 2018 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA across multiple accounts or TDF? [Target Date Fund]
Replies: 2
Views: 300

Re: AA across multiple accounts or TDF? [Target Date Fund]

Hi All! Just getting started in the personal finance space, and I appreciate any advice or feedback! I am having a bit of trouble determining the appropriate asset allocation (across multiple accounts) as I plan for my retirement. My current set up is due to wanting to quickly get money invested in...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 29, 2018 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio check-in
Replies: 5
Views: 575

Re: Portfolio check-in

Sorry no one else has responded so far. So bumping the thread hoping others will help you. Having looked at what you are doing, I don't have any quarrel with the big picture. 85% stocks is a good asset allocation for somebody in their thirties but I would recommend to start working your stock ratio ...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 29, 2018 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Customizing The Glidepath
Replies: 13
Views: 1840

Re: Customizing The Glidepath

Dave, I am honored that my "Hitting the Sell Button" thread inspired your thread here. Good to know that people read my stuff. A couple of thoughts here. As I have approached 60, I realize that I did not take the task of de-risking my portfolio seriously enough. My portfolio was 72% stocks before th...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 29, 2018 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?
Replies: 235
Views: 13168

Re: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?

Reasons for owning a Long US Treasury fund are as follows: 1) Over long periods of time, long bonds outperform short bonds. Yes, with more risk. Current yields are still unimpressive, not the kind of thing that makes you want to lock up your money for 20 years+. 2) A Long US Treasury fund is the pe...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 29, 2018 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Stocks Mitigate Secular Bear Markets?
Replies: 43
Views: 3078

Re: Dividend Stocks Mitigate Secular Bear Markets?

No investment strategy works all of the time. The dividend strategy should cushion most but not all bear markets. How is that? You need to back test it and tell us what the SWR is compared to just holding total market:) You can deviate from total market and come up with better performing portfolios...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 29, 2018 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity beating vanguard now? switch to Fidelity?
Replies: 25
Views: 2519

Re: Fidelity beating vanguard now? switch to Fidelity?

Hi I just saw on Fidelity web site that they now have four zero index funds and they listed all their other index funds and ETF having lower expense ratios than corresponding funds and are openly saying they are better than Vanguard. I have most of my investments in vanguard funds at vanguard. Am I...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 29, 2018 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why stay the course? Why not sell all?
Replies: 68
Views: 6812

Re: Why stay the course? Why not sell all?

I want International representation in my portfolio. International Bonds seem to add very little diversification benefits and in my view are entirely optional. I hate that Int'l bonds have been added to the Target Retirement funds. Since Vanguard has hedged for currency in their Total International...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 29, 2018 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Stocks Mitigate Secular Bear Markets?
Replies: 43
Views: 3078

Re: Dividend Stocks Mitigate Secular Bear Markets?

Do dividend stocks mitigate secular bear markets? Maybe. Jeremy Siegel believes this and in one of his books discusses the effects of dividends during the difficult 1970's periods. We should also define a secular bear market as a long stretches of time where the stock market just doesn't advance. Th...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 29, 2018 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why stay the course? Why not sell all?
Replies: 68
Views: 6812

Re: Why stay the course? Why not sell all?

The Bogleheads books mentioned several model portfolios. They include the John Bogle two fund portfolio as mentioned above. The Taylor Larimore 3-fund portfolio is mentioned. Portfolios that include TIPS and REITs are also mentioned, hence the 5 fund portfolio that I discussed above. Are those addi...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 29, 2018 3:27 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: My favorite Boglehead posters
Replies: 142
Views: 8089

Re: My favorite Boglehead posters

Larry Swedroe Anything from Dr. Bernstein. Timmy, his college thread was extremely helpful. He replied back to more than a dozen PMs. Bill Bernstein's work is about the best I have ever seen as it has a timeless quality to it. Nothing faddish about his writings. One of the forum members started thr...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 29, 2018 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why stay the course? Why not sell all?
Replies: 68
Views: 6812

Re: Why stay the course? Why not sell all?

My prediction of the Zero Fund portfolio has come true. US Stocks aren't doing well, International Stocks are down even more, US Bonds are down, and International Bonds are down. 2018 was a tough year, cash had a positive return and that was about the only asset class in the plus column. I have see...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why stay the course? Why not sell all?
Replies: 68
Views: 6812

Re: Why stay the course? Why not sell all?

My prediction of the Zero Fund portfolio has come true. US Stocks aren't doing well, International Stocks are down even more, US Bonds are down, and International Bonds are down. 2018 was a tough year, cash had a positive return and that was about the only asset class in the plus column. I have see...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities objectively considered
Replies: 111
Views: 7291

Re: Annuities objectively considered

I priced an annuity for a 72 year-old woman a few weeks back. A SPIA would have paid her 7.1%, in exchange for her giving up complete and total control of her money. The evil, geeedy, life-sucking, bloodthirsty variable annuity company would have paid her a guaranteed 6.5%, without the need to annu...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Strategic is your Strategic Allocation?
Replies: 16
Views: 1123

Re: How Strategic is your Strategic Allocation?

I have noticed a lot of discussion around what someone's Strategic Allocation (SA) is in many posts. Most often I hear someone talking about rebalancing to their SA periodically to get better long range returns. A question of frequency to rebalance often follows. Not surprisingly many people with m...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?
Replies: 235
Views: 13168

Re: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?

In times of deep crisis though, correlation became negative, LT STRIPS did nicely zig when stocks zagged (go back to the drawdown chart , the blue line is really quite remarkable , two wild parents somehow producing a very quiet child of sorts). Also check the side-to-side comparison of annual retu...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard personal advisor service (PAS) for high net worth?
Replies: 70
Views: 6430

Re: Vanguard personal advisor service (PAS) for high net worth?

Many good points above. I live in Alabama which has a state income tax. For tax avoidance it is better to buy individual muni state bonds rather than a muni bond fund (Vanguard to my knowledge doesn't offer a single state muni bond fund for Alabama). I was just curious regarding other bogleheads wh...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2299
Views: 399849

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

My guess is that I am down 6% to 7% for the year. My asset allocation was about 66% stocks/34% bonds and cash when the correction/mini-bear market hit. Value seems to have been a drag again in 2018 as it was in 2017.
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says It’s Time to Play It Safe]
Replies: 153
Views: 13581

Re: When did Jack become an advocate of timing the market?

https://www.barrons.com/articles/vanguard-founder-jack-bogle-on-the-stock-market-51545950443 Articles like this have me scratching my head. Just seems strange that he would change his tune this late in life. Mr. Bogle has done this before, he cut his stock allocation when he saw stock valuations go...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?
Replies: 235
Views: 13168

Re: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?

That's my rationale as well. Even in the 70s, you are fine with LTT if you just are just trying to diversify a high proportion of stocks (let's say 80%). If the number of stocks to diversify is smaller, ITT become better. I consider the 70s as the worse case scenario and looking at PV I make sure t...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why stay the course? Why not sell all?
Replies: 68
Views: 6812

Re: Why stay the course? Why not sell all?

Let’s say, hypothetically speaking of course, that there is a good chance stocks will fall in the next few weeks/months. Assuming this information to be true, what merits does staying the course have? Wouldn’t it be more sensible to sell all of my funds now (assuming a profit, of course), and rebuy...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What do you do with dividends?
Replies: 51
Views: 4435

Re: What do you do with dividends?

Yes...it's that time of year again. Dividends automagically appear in my Vanguard settlement account. This isn't a "what should I do," post. I know what I do. I sweep any dividend income from my various Vanguard funds (small cap fund, int'l funds, etc.) and this year, I buy the Total Market Fund wi...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?
Replies: 235
Views: 13168

Re: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?

I do not own long term bond funds in my portfolio but there are good reasons why an investor would own such a fund. If you were going to do this, I would recommend a Long US Treasury fund, as there is no question about credit quality. Reasons for owning a Long US Treasury fund are as follows: 1) Ove...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Core-4 Investing is LIVE! It really is this time!
Replies: 141
Views: 13017

Re: Core-4 Investing is LIVE! It really is this time!

...a simple way...There is not one Core-4 portfolio, there are now 6, and each has 4 allocations for a total of 24 portfolios (to start)... Because simple solutions are usually the best. Like Taylor's Three-fund Portfolio, Core-4® Investing takes off the veil of high cost and complexity... It's all...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard personal advisor service (PAS) for high net worth?
Replies: 70
Views: 6430

Re: Vanguard personal advisor service (PAS) for high net worth?

I had a phone meet and great with one of their young financial advisors. I have a couple concerns: He seemed to be inclined to have a strictly Vanguard mutual funds and ETF's approach rather than individual stocks and bonds. Didn't recommend alternatives such as annuities or preferred stocks. Obvio...
by nedsaid
Sat Dec 29, 2018 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10126
Views: 1785947

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Here we are, 2018 is set and done. My AA is down 10% and change. A correction for sure. Nowhere near a deep crisis (so far). Nothing terribly surprising nor overly disturbing, quite frankly, it's just a regular bump in the life of a long-term investor. The only surprise is the fact that each and ev...
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 28, 2018 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to value an ETF
Replies: 8
Views: 595

Re: How to value an ETF

How about Net Asset Value per share?
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 28, 2018 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Artemis Attack on the Bogleheads
Replies: 80
Views: 9169

Re: Artemis Attack on the Bogleheads

One more comment on this. There is an old saying on Wall Street, you don't fight the tape and you don't fight the Fed. The reason I am not jumping up and down and telling everybody to buy stocks now is that it is clear the market wants to go down. The ticker tape is showing lower and lower prices a...
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 28, 2018 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Artemis Attack on the Bogleheads
Replies: 80
Views: 9169

Re: Artemis Attack on the Bogleheads

Active managers did better when most stocks were owned by individuals rather than institutions, more naïve investors were out there to take advantage of. Active managers convinced these individuals that hiring a professional to pick their stocks was better than trying to pick stocks themselves. The...
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 28, 2018 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)
Replies: 248
Views: 20996

Re: Whose buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

I just did....will hit at market close. Money won't be needed for 20+ years, so, why not. Any insight or tips? Do many try to 'wait' for bottom? or buy on the way back up? (whenever that may be) Not market timing, just buying on sale. :moneybag My dry powder is remaining dry. No plans to sell stock...
by nedsaid
Fri Dec 28, 2018 4:51 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: My favorite Boglehead posters
Replies: 142
Views: 8089

Re: My favorite Boglehead posters

I may or may not agree with everything they say, but the following are some my favorite BHs - in no particular order. I enjoy reading their posts. Especially the amount of time and diligence they put in to their response is very much appreciated. Who are your favorites? livesoft Nisiprius Nedsaid w...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 23, 2018 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interview Of Larry Swedroe Centered On His New Retirement Book
Replies: 8
Views: 1265

Re: Interview Of Larry Swedroe Centered On His New Retirement Book

Hi Larry: I own three of your books and have enjoyed them all. The Financial Plan Book, Your Book on Alternative Investments, and your book on Factor Investing. All good reads. At some point, I will buy your Avoiding Black Swans and your new Retirement books. I just read them, let others review them...
by nedsaid
Sun Dec 23, 2018 9:59 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: My Christmas Present To You
Replies: 108
Views: 11179

Re: My Christmas Present To You

Thank you Taylor for your service during World War II. Many best wishes and Merry Christmas.