Search found 10891 matches

by nedsaid
Mon Jun 24, 2013 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AAPL - Great Investment or Value Trap
Replies: 62
Views: 9758

Re: AAPL - Great Investment or Value Trap

My prediction is that Apple will lag the market for some time to come. This often happens with the former high flyers. A computer geek at work told me that Samsung actually has better technology for its smart phones than does Apple. If that is true, trouble is ahead. Apple has great products. I thin...
by nedsaid
Mon Jun 24, 2013 10:50 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Bogleheads Without Avatars
Replies: 197
Views: 21565

Re: Bogleheads Without Avatars

Okay, I feel like I am an official Boglehead or something. I have an Avatar!!!
by nedsaid
Mon Jun 24, 2013 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where do folks get dry powder from??
Replies: 65
Views: 5693

Re: Where do folks get dry powder from??

Keeping your powder dry is a saying that sounds good. For me, I don't want retirement money languishing at zero percent interest in a money fund. I just keep fully invested in a diversified portfolio.
by nedsaid
Mon Jun 24, 2013 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond reassurance.... Anyone?
Replies: 23
Views: 2704

Re: Bond reassurance.... Anyone?

My Gosh, if you have 20 years until retirement what are you worried about? You weren't going to draw it all out tomorrow and spend it anyway. This is what markets do. ALL investment strategies fail. The best strategies fail only for short periods of time. Right now, a diversified portfolio doesn't s...
by nedsaid
Mon Jun 24, 2013 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Modify my investment portfolio to play the Fed tapering?
Replies: 12
Views: 1246

Re: Modify my investment portfolio to play the Fed tapering?

There is a lot less than meets the eye when the market acts like it does. Yes we can say Fed tapering is to blame, or blame China, or blame whatever. I think a lot of folks in the market were looking for an excuse to sell. An excuse to take a profit. It might be as simple as that. No, don't modify y...
by nedsaid
Mon Jun 24, 2013 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: boiling it down for an investing novice
Replies: 15
Views: 1531

Re: boiling it down for an investing novice

If you don't need to tap your accounts, just keep reinvesting the dividends.

I have maintained a brokerage account with an independent broker. He has helped me a lot through times like this. We all like to "talk to our money" from time to time. We all need some reassurance.
by nedsaid
Mon Jun 24, 2013 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Conservative retirement plan looking for comments
Replies: 22
Views: 3133

Re: Conservative retirement plan looking for comments

If you were going to do this, I would go to a discount broker like Charles Schwab and use their bond desk. The trouble with the full-service brokers is that you never know when you are getting their junk unloaded on you. I think this is what happened to my family member. These firms trade on their o...
by nedsaid
Mon Jun 24, 2013 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Conservative retirement plan looking for comments
Replies: 22
Views: 3133

Re: Conservative retirement plan looking for comments

I don't buy bonds individually myself, I learned from a family member's experience. Buying $40K in bonds at $1,000 a piece could be an expensive way to do it. Your expenses, commission plus spread can be 3% or more. My foggy memory banks recall that bond traders like to sell these in increments of $...
by nedsaid
Mon Jun 24, 2013 9:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When dying
Replies: 48
Views: 8760

Re: When dying

I want to express my sadness for your loss. Reading this thread was very touching. It reminds all of us what is important in life. Thank you for sharing with us. May you find comfort and peace.
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 23, 2013 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest suddenly has become confusing
Replies: 32
Views: 3188

Re: Invest suddenly has become confusing

If you are confused, let me confuse you some more. "It is a stock pickers market." (Oh man!! I pick the wrong ones!! Darn it!) "We are seeing market rotation." (I am getting dizzy.) "Sell in May and go away." (Darn, I should have heeded that advice.) "We might have a summer rally." (Huh? I thought I...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 23, 2013 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me select a commodities fund!
Replies: 36
Views: 20788

Re: Help me select a commodities fund!

My foggy memory banks recall that T Rowe Price has a Natural Resources fund. Fidelity has sector funds that invest in the stocks of the various commodity producers. I think Vanguard has a couple of these too. If you have to have commodities in your portfolio, this is the route I would recommend. I k...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 23, 2013 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Quality Bonds: The Only Effective Diversifier Left?
Replies: 29
Views: 3697

Re: High Quality Bonds: The Only Effective Diversifier Left?

It is interesting to see how the bond funds have performed for me year to date. An intermediate term bond fund is -2.59%. A TIPs fund is -8.86%. An unhedged International Bond Fund is -6.71%. A Ginnie Mae fund is -2.63%. Vanguard Total Bond Market is -2.27%. So Bond funds haven't done so horrible un...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 23, 2013 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spanked on Retirement, Gen X Still Doesn't Get It
Replies: 60
Views: 13809

Re: Spanked on Retirement, Gen X Still Doesn't Get It

This is why people need an emergency fund.

Too many folks have all their savings in their 401k. No wonder why these accounts get tapped all the time.
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 23, 2013 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the Market having a major sell off?
Replies: 121
Views: 10633

Re: Why is the Market having a major sell off?

Gosh, why does anything happen in the stock market? I think the sell off is silly. The Fed Chairman only hinted at tapering down the bond buying program. Said the economy was getting stronger. So what should have been good news got interpreted as bad news. Those that follow the market know that this...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 23, 2013 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3 funders with a pinch of gold, silv
Replies: 22
Views: 1882

Re: 3 funders with a pinch of gold, silv

The way that I say it is that you have to pay attention to valuations. If that is a form of market timing, then I plead guilty. I certainly don't advocate "all or nothing" strategies. I think bonds are expensive but I am not selling. I am not selling stocks to buy bonds but I am buying bonds with at...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 23, 2013 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Conservative retirement plan looking for comments
Replies: 22
Views: 3133

Re: Conservative retirement plan looking for comments

No RandyAdams1978, you shouldn't feel at all bad about your posts. This is how we all learn. Your strategy of using a bond ladder actually wasn't a bad idea, I was showing you the pitfalls of using corporate bonds. These are more complex instruments than what people imagine. I wanted to illustrate t...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 23, 2013 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues its free fall
Replies: 34
Views: 5900

Re: Gold continues its free fall

Yes, you diversify with more stocks and bonds. Within the stock portion at least go with international stocks and some REITs. We know that value stocks and small stocks don't move in lockstep with the total market. With bonds, intermediate term bonds with TIPs. I am not against Gold in a portfolio, ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 23, 2013 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Increasing International to 40% ... good idea or not?
Replies: 37
Views: 3675

Re: Increasing International to 40% ... good idea or not?

I think it is a good idea. Valuations seem to be better overseas.

Most posters on this forum recommend between 20 and 50 percent. I think it is a matter of preference myself.

Go for it.
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 22, 2013 1:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues its free fall
Replies: 34
Views: 5900

Re: Gold continues its free fall

More evidence that investors should not chase hot asset classes. People who chased the tech stocks in the late 1990's, the folks who chased real estate in the mid-2000's, and now gold all got burned. You have to pay attention to valuations. Sometimes when you buy is as important as what you buy. Gol...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 22, 2013 12:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Conservative retirement plan looking for comments
Replies: 22
Views: 3133

Re: Conservative retirement plan looking for comments

I actually think corporate bonds can be a good investment, but I would use a good low cost mutual fund provider like Vanguard to "buy them in bulk." Of course, you will face Net Asset Value fluctuation. But you have experts on your side that do the credit analysis for you and buy these things at bet...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 22, 2013 12:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Conservative retirement plan looking for comments
Replies: 22
Views: 3133

Re: Conservative retirement plan looking for comments

Another factor in buying bonds is you don't always know if what you are buying is good stuff. Too often brokerage firms will unload on their customers the stuff from their own account that they are trying to get rid of. I suspect this is part of what happened to my family member. So beware. You migh...
by nedsaid
Sat Jun 22, 2013 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Conservative retirement plan looking for comments
Replies: 22
Views: 3133

Re: Conservative retirement plan looking for comments

A whole lot of strategies work when backtested. Have you future tested this? I say this in jest because I know future testing is impossible. It sounds to me like you need more bonds and you are weary of the risk you have been taking. Maybe you need a 50/50 balanced portfolio. Or maybe 40/60. A very ...
by nedsaid
Fri Jun 21, 2013 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Models better than instincts
Replies: 31
Views: 2879

Re: Models better than instincts

Thanks Larry for your comments. It sounds to me that just indexing over long periods of time would beat most models. i wonder if the stock pickers versus the darts column that ran in the Wall Street Journal suggests this or if the darts would be more likely to hit stocks other than the mega-caps. Ma...
by nedsaid
Wed Jun 19, 2013 10:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Replace car or repair, need Bogleheads advice.
Replies: 15
Views: 1782

Re: Replace car or repair, need Bogleheads advice.

I have owned older cars. My former car was 30 years old when the engine blew. My current car is 20 years old. There gets to be a point when the problems start piling up and stuff just all starts wearing out all at once. That is the point where you say "no more" and move on. Older cars are fine to ow...
by nedsaid
Wed Jun 19, 2013 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to buy bonds!
Replies: 26
Views: 6376

Re: Time to buy bonds!

I don't think we are at the pound the table and jump up and down and yell buy bonds point yet. We have seen a dip in our bond funds and I am not sure that in bond terms that this is even a correction. If you are on a regular diversification program of buying bonds, I would continue. This might be a ...
by nedsaid
Wed Jun 19, 2013 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for parents changing from merill to vg
Replies: 11
Views: 1649

Re: Advice for parents changing from merill to vg

With a five year CD latter with CDs of one, two, three, four, and five year maturities you would roll over your matured CD every year with a new five year CD. How much work is buying a new 5 year CD every year? Not much.
by nedsaid
Wed Jun 19, 2013 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buy ETF based on index, or mutual fund based on same index?
Replies: 17
Views: 1586

Re: Buy ETF based on index, or mutual fund based on same ind

An advantage of index mutual fund over its ETF cousin is that reinvestment of dividends is easier.
by nedsaid
Wed Jun 19, 2013 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Models better than instincts
Replies: 31
Views: 2879

Re: Models better than instincts

Larry, I am not saying models are bad. Heck, I use target date and moderate risk funds for ideas on how to build a portfolio. I use portfolio theory and tilt towards small and value. I have listened to the academics in constructing my portfolio. I use Modern Portfolio Theory to the best of my abilit...
by nedsaid
Wed Jun 19, 2013 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Investors running for the hills
Replies: 56
Views: 6302

Re: Bonds Investors running for the hills

Remember that as prices drop, yields will rise. If you reinvest the dividends you will benefit from the rising rates. Unless you are in or near retirement, you should not be too concerned about this. The other exception would be if you owned long term bonds. The intermediate term part of the bond ma...
by nedsaid
Wed Jun 19, 2013 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I Sell my Bonds?
Replies: 19
Views: 3327

Re: Should I Sell my Bonds?

No, don't sell your bonds if you are young and have years to reinvest your dividends.
by nedsaid
Wed Jun 19, 2013 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k and investing in stocks is for idiots -Robert Kiyosaki
Replies: 21
Views: 4080

Re: 401k and investing in stocks is for idiots -Robert Kiyos

My take on Robert Kiyosaki is that he says some good things. I feel that he understates the risks of being in business and of being a landlord. Not that those are bad things to do but business is hard and so is real estate. There are reasons that some people (like me) choose to be employees. I think...
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 18, 2013 11:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where to put modest amount of money for niece and nephew
Replies: 1
Views: 572

Re: Where to put modest amount of money for niece and nephew

I-Bonds at Treasury Direct is not a bad option.
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 18, 2013 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Models better than instincts
Replies: 31
Views: 2879

Re: Models better than instincts

Gosh Larry. The fact of the matter is that everybody wings it a bit when investing. Some people are better able to paper it over with math than others. The reality is that investing models get tweaked all the time. Models get tweaked all the time because of variability in human behavior. Markets cha...
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 18, 2013 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for parents changing from merill to vg
Replies: 11
Views: 1649

Re: Advice for parents changing from merill to vg

Gosh, no wonder the financial guys do so well! Tens of thousands of dollars? Wow. To me a portfolio of 35% stocks and 65% FDIC Insured CDs would be a great portfolio for a couple that age. The interest wouldn't be that great. I would ladder the CDs so that they could get the benefit as rates rise. A...
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 18, 2013 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends Are Different?
Replies: 207
Views: 14362

Re: Dividends Are Different?

A previous poster raised a great point about the commission cost years ago when buying or selling stocks. When I started investing, it cost about 3% of the price of a stock to buy or sell. So for me, it was a way of recouping costs and building funds for my next purchase. It was an important part of...
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 18, 2013 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article on Active Vanguard funds outdid Index - Thoughts?
Replies: 11
Views: 2076

Re: Article on Active Vanguard funds outdid Index - Thoughts

During the 2000's value outperformed growth after the opposite happened in the 1990's. That might be all that happened.

For those of us who believe in the value premium, this looks like the value premium at work.
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 18, 2013 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does your bond fund own any stocks?
Replies: 6
Views: 778

Re: Does your bond fund own any stocks?

Wow, this is the ultimate in style drift. I have seen everything now.
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 18, 2013 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two pensions - Getting rid of bonds?
Replies: 25
Views: 2842

Re: Two pensions - Getting rid of bonds?

No I would not ditch your bonds. Public employee pensions are under pressure now. There are some that are pretty seriously underfunded. I would view your pensions as something you will receive in the future but the amount as being uncertain. In my state, the public pension scheme has been revised a ...
by nedsaid
Tue Jun 18, 2013 9:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wanting to spend money all of a sudden
Replies: 76
Views: 8183

Re: Wanting to spend money all of a sudden

I think all that is happening is that you want to reward yourself.
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 16, 2013 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering increasing my equity exposure
Replies: 6
Views: 889

Re: Considering increasing my equity exposure

What you are considering looks okay to me. The changes look small.
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 16, 2013 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the advantages of a Mega/Large Cap tilt?
Replies: 4
Views: 868

Re: What are the advantages of a Mega/Large Cap tilt?

If you own a Total Market Index, you already have a large Cap tilt. 70% of the index is large caps, 20% midcaps, and about 10% small cap. So why would you want to tilt something that is already tilted pretty dramatically? If your goal is to beat the indexes a bit, this is not the way to go. Academic...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 16, 2013 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with portfolio, fiduciary hourly advisor
Replies: 139
Views: 8986

Re: Help with portfolio, fiduciary hourly advisor

Tacoma, We all get scared. Don't feel bad about it. That is why I have retained my relationship with a broker I have worked with for 16 years. He is established and doesn't need to churn his clients and doesn't have a sales manager breathing down his neck. I talk to him about once a month by phone a...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 16, 2013 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3 funders with a pinch of gold, silv
Replies: 22
Views: 1882

Re: 3 funders with a pinch of gold, silv

Years ago I did own some gold and silver coins. They were beautiful but I sold to put the money into IRAs in the early 1980's. It might be prudent to own gold and silver as a hedge in a portfolio. The problem is that these can be dead money for years. If one were interested in something like this, I...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 16, 2013 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: boiling it down for an investing novice
Replies: 15
Views: 1531

Re: boiling it down for an investing novice

You went to a simple three fund portfolio and you seem to be wondering if complexity is better!! My take is that staying put, particularly with the Total Bond Market Index seems prudent. Somewhere, Taylor Larimore posted the yearly returns for this fund going back to 1978. It was very reassuring bec...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 16, 2013 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with portfolio, fiduciary hourly advisor
Replies: 139
Views: 8986

Re: Help with portfolio, fiduciary hourly advisor

I should clarify what I mean by education. Get a few readable books that clearly explain these concepts. Two of my favorites are; The Little Book of Common Sense Investing by John Bogle and The Smartest Investment Book You'll Ever Read by Dan Solin. Solin's book is a good place to start because the ...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 16, 2013 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with portfolio, fiduciary hourly advisor
Replies: 139
Views: 8986

Re: Help with portfolio, fiduciary hourly advisor

Hi Tacoma: The education won't necessarily increase the rate of return on your investments. It will give you enough perspective on the markets not to sell when things look bleak. If what you know keeps you from making a couple bad investment decisions, that alone will save you money. Getting into lo...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 16, 2013 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I invest in bonds at all in my AA?
Replies: 15
Views: 2136

Re: Should I invest in bonds at all in my AA?

Bond prices have been driven up by the "flight to safety" to the point we may see negative real returns in bonds for a while. I aslo think bonds are riskier than perceived. The Bogleheads should be a refuge for sanity and cool heads but I read threads where people are really worried and a few poster...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 16, 2013 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: stocks x bonds
Replies: 1
Views: 387

Re: stocks x bonds

Keep in mind what is important is what people actually do and not what they say. There are people that sound very pessimistic and yet still own stocks. What you are doing is some contrarian thinking, which for an investor is a good thing. You are right in saying that pessimism about the stock market...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 16, 2013 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with portfolio, fiduciary hourly advisor
Replies: 139
Views: 8986

Re: Help with portfolio, fiduciary hourly advisor

Hey Tacoma: I think you are getting a lot of great advice. It is time to step back and look at the big picture and not get embroiled too much in numbers. First education is key. The more you know the more money you can save yourself. Look at it this way, if I paid you $250 an hour to study this stuf...
by nedsaid
Sun Jun 16, 2013 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: novice physician investor, please help
Replies: 33
Views: 5559

Re: novice physician investor, please help

Welcome to the Bogleheads. As a physician, you will make more money than most folks. In a few years, you will have outearned what I have made in my whole working life. So increase your allocation in bonds as you age just like the rest of us. I know you feel the pressure to "catch up" but you can mak...