Search found 4274 matches

by longinvest
Sat Jan 25, 2020 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Simple Bogleheads Retirement Using Variable Percentage Withdrawals (VPW Forward Test)
Replies: 253
Views: 48578

Re: A Simple Bogleheads Retirement Using Variable Percentage Withdrawals (VPW Forward Test)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has published the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) for December 2019. We're interested to calculate an average CPI-U to associate with our forward test at the end of December 2019. Here were the last 12 CPI-U values: Month CPI-U 01/2019 251.712 02/2...
by longinvest
Fri Jan 24, 2020 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads
Replies: 302
Views: 77232

Re: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads

A suggestion - is there a way you can build the returns calculations for each account/tab separately (perhaps on the far right margin of each account/tab). Thanks for the comments. Looking at the returns of individual accounts could lead to behavioral pitfalls . As this is a Bogleheads spreadsheet,...
by longinvest
Fri Jan 24, 2020 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 130
Views: 26365

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

Thank you #Cruncher, it's awesome!
by longinvest
Thu Jan 23, 2020 12:55 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Sad news: LadyGeek's husband has passed
Replies: 352
Views: 27391

Re: Sad news: LadyGeek's husband has passed

My condolences LadyGeek.
by longinvest
Sat Jan 18, 2020 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in taxable
Replies: 65
Views: 4374

Re: Bonds in taxable

Here's a post I wrote about this: I think that the default suggestion, if one is made, should be to mirror the asset allocation in all accounts , which represents a moderate and good enough suggestion. I think that forum member Stlutz said it best in an earlier post: The other problem is that tax la...
by longinvest
Sat Jan 18, 2020 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Simple Bogleheads Retirement Using Variable Percentage Withdrawals (VPW Forward Test)
Replies: 253
Views: 48578

Re: A Simple Bogleheads Retirement Using Variable Percentage Withdrawals (VPW Forward Test)

Here's a growth chart of the Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth Fund, which is a low-cost global balanced index One-Fund Portfolio , and of the four markets it invests into since the start of this forward test : http://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=1jcL1eIqqHC5NC0kgyyAo1C9g2_QJHW_a Here'...
by longinvest
Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 1000
Views: 336795

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

When I enter current portfolio value, allocation, estimated SS for myself and DH, plus the pension calcs, the cell in green for monthly contributions is -0-. Congratulations! I am confused, though. Even if we've saved "enough", the worksheet estimates an initial withdrawal rate of 5.15%, but the do...
by longinvest
Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement savings guidelines by age
Replies: 31
Views: 3724

Re: Retirement savings guidelines by age

You could consider the approach described in this post, instead: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=4946841#p4946841. That looks incredibly complicated. Dear Danielc, How difficult is it to fill in the following information: Typing those numbers is easy. But I want to understand what ...
by longinvest
Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you plan to actually spend down your portfolio?
Replies: 353
Views: 30008

Re: Do you plan to actually spend down your portfolio?

Some people, perhaps, will use 3%. Others have noted that they plan to use a variable withdrawal method such as VPW or a PMT based method which requires a guess of the number of years you have left on this planet , though one might add a few years buffer. The instructions of our wiki's Variable Per...
by longinvest
Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement savings guidelines by age
Replies: 31
Views: 3724

Re: Retirement savings guidelines by age

You could consider the approach described in this post, instead: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=4946841#p4946841. That looks incredibly complicated. Dear Danielc, How difficult is it to fill in the following information: http://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=1sl8XLk901kO-I...
by longinvest
Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement savings guidelines by age
Replies: 31
Views: 3724

Re: Retirement savings guidelines by age

KlangFool wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:47 pm
<<I will save 26x expenses by the time I turn 67, >>

I think you are wrong in your assessment. If you reach 67, social security benefits will cover a significant part of your expense. You would not need 26x expenses.
Effectively.
by longinvest
Mon Jan 13, 2020 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio
Replies: 234
Views: 48524

Re: Does it matter?

Who's right? Does it matter? Taylor, I think that we don't need the answer ("Who's right?") to know that both asset classes are gigantic and can accommodate whatever asset allocation individual investors like us want to use in their portfolios. While William Sharpe's arguments about the contrarian ...
by longinvest
Sun Jan 12, 2020 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio
Replies: 234
Views: 48524

Re: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio

30 November 2019 FTSE numbers (in millions of USD): 30,668,188 - U.S. stocks - FTSE Global All-Cap index, U.S. breakdown 24,591,817 - ex U.S. stocks - FTSE Global All-Cap index minus U.S. 22,522,290 - U.S. bonds - FTSE US Broad Investment-Grade index 19,350,730 - ex U.S. bonds - FTSE World Broad In...
by longinvest
Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intermediate-Term bond vs Total Bond
Replies: 107
Views: 7192

Re: Intermediate-Term bond vs Total Bond

I concede that I should have written, instead, "to emit stocks (and sometimes buy back stocks or pay dividends)" because both dividends and buy backs subtract from company value due to cash outlay. Anyway, the idea is that the market weight of stocks is mostly determined by company decisions. I thi...
by longinvest
Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe World Stock/Bond portfolio, who holds it?
Replies: 27
Views: 1456

Re: Bill Sharpe World Stock/Bond portfolio, who holds it?

But I hope you realize that's not what Sharpe is advocating. He's advocating for a bucket approach in which only the risky bucket = VSMGX . Yes, I'm (unfortunately) aware of this. I do not agree with the bucket method that William Sharpe is advocating as it's illogical. I also think that it's illog...
by longinvest
Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intermediate-Term bond vs Total Bond
Replies: 107
Views: 7192

Re: Intermediate-Term bond vs Total Bond

I concede that I should have written, instead, "to emit stocks (and sometimes buy back stocks or pay dividends)" because both dividends and buy backs subtract from company value due to cash outlay. Anyway, the idea is that the market weight of stocks is mostly determined by company decisions. I thi...
by longinvest
Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe World Stock/Bond portfolio, who holds it?
Replies: 27
Views: 1456

Re: Bill Sharpe World Stock/Bond portfolio, who holds it?

I think that SWR is a broken portfolio withdrawal method. I think that it's a mistake to base one's financial plan on such an illogical method. I suggest to consider our wiki's sensible Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW) method, instead. Our wiki provides a worksheet which can be used by investor...
by longinvest
Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe World Stock/Bond portfolio, who holds it?
Replies: 27
Views: 1456

Re: Bill Sharpe World Stock/Bond portfolio, who holds it?

I think that SWR is a broken portfolio withdrawal method. I think that it's a mistake to base one's financial plan on such an illogical method. I suggest to consider our wiki's sensible Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW) method, instead. Our wiki provides a worksheet which can be used by investors...
by longinvest
Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 1000
Views: 336795

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

There were a few forum threads, lately, seeking to define a "retirement number" (a specific amount of money target for a retirement portfolio). I think that targeting a fixed (inflation-indexed) retirement number is illogical. I briefly explained why in the post I've copied below, linking back to an...
by longinvest
Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement savings guidelines by age
Replies: 31
Views: 3724

Re: Retirement savings guidelines by age

You could consider the approach described in this post, instead: viewtopic.php?p=4946841#p4946841.
by longinvest
Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe World Stock/Bond portfolio, who holds it?
Replies: 27
Views: 1456

Re: Bill Sharpe World Stock/Bond portfolio, who holds it?

20-something accumulators aren't spending. Here's the full post: Note: I'm copying, here, a post I made on another thread . Here's an interesting series of questions and answers with a surprising conclusion at the end. I'm sure that many would not have believed me if I simply stated the conclusion ...
by longinvest
Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe World Stock/Bond portfolio, who holds it?
Replies: 27
Views: 1456

Re: Bill Sharpe World Stock/Bond portfolio, who holds it?

Vanguard's own target retirement date funds don't start you off at 60/40 and keep you there for life. Vanguard has two distinct all-in-one index fund lines: Target Retirement and LifeStrategy. It could be perfectly appropriate for an investor to hold a 60/40 portfolio all lifelong. Here's a link to...
by longinvest
Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe World Stock/Bond portfolio, who holds it?
Replies: 27
Views: 1456

Re: Bill Sharpe World Stock/Bond portfolio, who holds it?

Ok - so this not a market float (between global stocks and bonds) portfolio, only within each of the two asset classes. Thanks I find the idea of a market float between two asset classes to be contradictory to the idea of managing risk primarily through stock/bond AA. Holding the market float betwe...
by longinvest
Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund
Replies: 69
Views: 5225

Re: Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund

Please see: Domestic v. International Megathread +1 :thumbsup Here's what I posted on the Megathread: Thank you, Silence Dogood, for your efforts to try regrouping posts about this hot topic in a single thread. Do you believe that it's a good idea to invest in international stocks? I fully adhere t...
by longinvest
Sun Jan 12, 2020 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe World Stock/Bond portfolio, who holds it?
Replies: 27
Views: 1456

Re: Bill Sharpe World Stock/Bond portfolio, who holds it?

Ok - so this not a market float (between global stocks and bonds) portfolio, only within each of the two asset classes. I am not sure I understand what you mean. If a portfolio is started at market proportions, and rebalanced according to William Sharpe's approach , it will remain at market proport...
by longinvest
Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe World Stock/Bond portfolio, who holds it?
Replies: 27
Views: 1456

Re: Bill Sharpe World Stock/Bond portfolio, who holds it?

Ok - so this not a market float (between global stocks and bonds) portfolio, only within each of the two asset classes. I am not sure I understand what you mean. If a portfolio is started at market proportions, and rebalanced according to William Sharpe's approach , it will remain at market proport...
by longinvest
Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe World Stock/Bond portfolio, who holds it?
Replies: 27
Views: 1456

Re: Bill Sharpe World Stock/Bond portfolio, who holds it?

If this is a target for an investor, what happens if the global stock market drops in half? To keep to the original intent, I presume that the investor would not rebalance. William Sharpe's Market Portfolio must be rebalanced, but its rebalancing is milder than rebalancing to a fixed target. Here's...
by longinvest
Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe World Stock/Bond portfolio, who holds it?
Replies: 27
Views: 1456

Re: Bill Sharpe World Stock/Bond portfolio, who holds it?

I was more curious if anyone sets their AA based on Sharpe's portfolio. So they would be holding a 54/46 portfolio. Actually, the proportions are 57/43 stocks/bonds . I have argued in The One-Fund Portfolio as a default suggestion that Vanguard's LifeStrategy Moderate Fund is a good enough proxy to...
by longinvest
Sun Jan 12, 2020 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intermediate-Term bond vs Total Bond
Replies: 107
Views: 7192

Re: Intermediate-Term bond vs Total Bond

Market weighings aren't set by the market but mostly by the decision of companies to emit (and sometimes buy back) stocks. The last thing you said is not true. If Microsoft buys back 50% of its stock, the stocks remaining will be worth twice as much. The market value of Microsoft does not change du...
by longinvest
Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intermediate-Term bond vs Total Bond
Replies: 107
Views: 7192

Re: Intermediate-Term bond vs Total Bond

As for junk bonds, pink sheet stocks, lottery tickets, and casino games, they're gambling. Junk bonds are a totally fine investment. They don't add all that much to a portfolio but they are really not in the same category as pink sheets stocks. There are many ways to define words. Some people consi...
by longinvest
Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intermediate-Term bond vs Total Bond
Replies: 107
Views: 7192

Re: Intermediate-Term bond vs Total Bond

I backtested two three-fund portfolios. The first portfolio is a typical 60/40 stock/bond portfolio with stocks divided 60/40 US/international using total-market funds. The second is a similar portfolio where the total bond market is replaced with intermediate treasury bonds and the stock allocation...
by longinvest
Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Simple Bogleheads Retirement Using Variable Percentage Withdrawals (VPW Forward Test)
Replies: 253
Views: 48578

Re: A Simple Bogleheads Retirement Using Variable Percentage Withdrawals (VPW Forward Test)

Here's how the VPW Accumulation And Retirement Worksheet calculated its suggested $5,498 portfolio withdrawal at the end of December 2019 . The retiree will get $2,032/month Social Security payments in 5 years. That's $24,384/year. The percentage for a 5-year withdrawal schedule with a 60/40 stocks/...
by longinvest
Sat Jan 11, 2020 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intermediate-Term bond vs Total Bond
Replies: 107
Views: 7192

Re: Intermediate-Term bond vs Total Bond

Let me repeat my question (that you haven't answered): Why would you think that the market hasn't already reacted to any mispricing of Italy and Germany bonds? What do you know that other investors don't? I did answer the question. You just didn't like my answer. I don't think that the bonds are mi...
by longinvest
Sat Jan 11, 2020 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intermediate-Term bond vs Total Bond
Replies: 107
Views: 7192

Re: Intermediate-Term bond vs Total Bond

Danielc, I had already provided you with the answer. I'll let William Sharpe answer your question. Just re-read what he wrote while considering that some investment advisor would have told you that Italy bonds are overpriced and Germany bonds are either correctly priced or underpriced: That doesn't...
by longinvest
Sat Jan 11, 2020 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intermediate-Term bond vs Total Bond
Replies: 107
Views: 7192

Re: Intermediate-Term bond vs Total Bond

Danielc, I had already provided you with the answer. I'll let William Sharpe answer your question. Just re-read what he wrote while considering that some investment advisor would have told you that Italy bonds are overpriced and Germany bonds are either correctly priced or underpriced: That doesn't...
by longinvest
Sat Jan 11, 2020 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intermediate-Term bond vs Total Bond
Replies: 107
Views: 7192

Re: Intermediate-Term bond vs Total Bond

But do you think this also applies to bonds? I can see how the reasoning applies to stocks, because the market cap of stocks is set by choices made by investors. But the market cap of bonds is set by whoever decides that they want to borrow more money. Let's take government bonds for example. If It...
by longinvest
Sat Jan 11, 2020 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads
Replies: 302
Views: 77232

Re: A Returns Spreadsheet for Bogleheads

I am trying to include our direct real estate returns with your spreadsheet and I am not sure how to do it. ... I was just curious if someone else has used this spreadsheet to track real estate returns – I don’t want to make it complicated but I think I should start to formally track our real estat...
by longinvest
Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How is your "number" defined?
Replies: 143
Views: 11258

Re: How is your "number" defined?

I have no "number". A retirement number makes no sense, not even an inflation-adjusted one. Someone retiring with a $1,000,000 inflation-adjusted portfolio in 1982 had a much more valuable retirement portfolio than someone retiring with a $1,000,000 inflation-adjusted portfolio in 1966. On the other...
by longinvest
Sat Jan 11, 2020 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intermediate-Term bond vs Total Bond
Replies: 107
Views: 7192

Re: Intermediate-Term bond vs Total Bond

I do have one question though. You said " It's obvious that investing into 15,203 bonds will have a much, much smaller impact than investing into 117 bonds. " --- I'm not sure what you mean by that. I don't have enough money for me to personally have ANY impact on any mutual fund. I always ask myse...
by longinvest
Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intermediate-Term bond vs Total Bond
Replies: 107
Views: 7192

Re: Intermediate-Term bond vs Total Bond

ofckrupke wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:41 pm
Related mumble from longinvest's post upthread: Fidelity Total Bond Fund is a (pricey) active fund; their counterpart to Vanguard TBM is called Fidelity US Bond Index Fund.
Oh! I wasn't aware of this. I wouldn't invest into a pricey and active bond fund.
by longinvest
Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intermediate-Term bond vs Total Bond
Replies: 107
Views: 7192

Re: Intermediate-Term bond vs Total Bond

I do have one question though. You said " It's obvious that investing into 15,203 bonds will have a much, much smaller impact than investing into 117 bonds. " --- I'm not sure what you mean by that. I don't have enough money for me to personally have ANY impact on any mutual fund. I always ask myse...
by longinvest
Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 130
Views: 26365

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

#Cruncher wrote:
Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:38 pm
#Cruncher, almost 2 years since the last update... Will you be updating your nice copy & paste spreadsheet for the latest tax rates?
by longinvest
Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intermediate-Term bond vs Total Bond
Replies: 107
Views: 7192

Re: Intermediate-Term bond vs Total Bond

[...] Our US bonds are in Fidelity's "total bond" index fund. But I just discovered that the 403b plan at my new job offers Vanguard's intermediate term bond fund. So I'm hoping that someone could help me understand the pros and cons of using IT bonds vs Total bond as your US bond allocation. [...]...
by longinvest
Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EDV simulation correct in SIMBA spreadsheet?
Replies: 20
Views: 997

Re: Is EDV simulation correct in SIMBA spreadsheet?

b) simulating an individual bond is one thing, not terribly complicated, but emulating a bond fund (with bonds of diverse maturities) is another ball game. Sit down, take a coffee, and check this thread . :wink: c) AlohaJoe did develop a monthly simulator based on the same principles as the (annual...
by longinvest
Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:11 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Canada] Vanguard VAB returns do not match Morningstar?
Replies: 16
Views: 979

Re: [Canada] Vanguard VAB returns do not match Morningstar?

Well, Morningstar (the .ca version) caught up with Vanguard about VAB/NAV/2019... Check this link , which now says 6.58%. Not the first time I've noticed an adjustment a few days after Jan 1st, but first time I've seen something of this amplitude. This reinforces me in my strategy of re-updating al...
by longinvest
Sun Jan 05, 2020 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Wishlist for Vanguard
Replies: 72
Views: 5423

Re: My Wishlist for Vanguard

occambogle wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 2:25 pm
LazyNihilist wrote:
Sun Jan 05, 2020 12:52 pm
[*]Create ETF's for LifeStrategy and TargetDate funds.
Is there some reason these don’t exist already?
Vanguard offers LifeStrategy-like ETFs to Canadians: Vanguard asset allocation ETFs | Vanguard Canada.
by longinvest
Sat Jan 04, 2020 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Bond Returns - From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]
Replies: 319
Views: 57673

Re: Historical Bond Returns - From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]

Thanks, Siamond. The reason I prefer to consider volatility in priority, when looking for a surrogate, is because it's one of the more stable properties of asset classes. Take, for example, US and international stocks. Over the last decade, they've had significantly different returns (CAGR). Yet, bo...
by longinvest
Sat Jan 04, 2020 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Bond Returns - From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]
Replies: 319
Views: 57673

Re: Historical Bond Returns - From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]

I have Microsoft Excel (Office 2019) and don't see any warnings except that the file is opened in "Protected view". This is normal for files downloaded from the internet. Once I started editing, the warning disappeared as expected. Suggestion (low priority): Move the "Changes" tab location to be th...
by longinvest
Sat Jan 04, 2020 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Bond Returns - From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]
Replies: 319
Views: 57673

Re: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]

Thanks for doing that. This probably came from our discussion quite a few posts ago about the best mapping for a Total-Bonds series (e.g. extending VBTLX history), where I suggested that 15-2 might (?!) be a better mapping, if only to diversify maturities. Well, this doesn't match reality very well...
by longinvest
Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Bond Returns - From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]
Replies: 319
Views: 57673

Re: Historical Bond Returns - From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]

OK. Letting Microsoft's online software "fix" the .xlsx file worked.

I've uploaded version 1.24 where I normalized the start line of all funds.

Please let me know if the warning is gone.