Search found 842 matches

by jdilla1107
Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 30611

Re: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap

That's not what Larry did. He compared the 20 year average P/E ratio of SCV and TSM, and TSM is basically equal to its average, but SCV is well below its average. So what? You are torturing the data through backtesting. What difference does this make? Then to what extent are you comfortable with us...
by jdilla1107
Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 30611

Re: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap

I don't think it makes any sense to determine something is cheap by comparing its relative performance over 10 years to something else. That's not what Larry did. He compared the 20 year average P/E ratio of SCV and TSM, and TSM is basically equal to its average, but SCV is well below its average. ...
by jdilla1107
Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 30611

Re: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap

I don't think it makes any sense to determine something is cheap by comparing its relative performance over 10 years to something else. That's not what Larry did. He compared the 20 year average P/E ratio of SCV and TSM, and TSM is basically equal to its average, but SCV is well below its average. ...
by jdilla1107
Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 30611

Re: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap

Owning some small cap separately results in a better diversified portfolio. I disagree completely. Let's say I have 50 businesses all making money and let's say I have two options: 1) Create a single large cap corporation to run all 50 businesses under one umbrella. 2) Create 50 separate small cap ...
by jdilla1107
Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 30611

Re: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap

I don't think it makes any sense to determine something is cheap by comparing its relative performance over 10 years to something else. By this reasoning, baseball cards are really due for some outperformance. I genuinely don't understand how smart people can use backtesting to derive conclusions on...
by jdilla1107
Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Domestic returns next 10 years
Replies: 45
Views: 3483

Re: Domestic returns next 10 years

This is exactly what some people said on this forum 10 years ago. Go search on the google history at the top right. It's quite entertaining to read how people thought 10 years ago.
by jdilla1107
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 year treasury yield
Replies: 34
Views: 3098

Re: 10 year treasury yield

Although the obvious thought was "interest rates can't get lower" that thought has been around for years (10?) and I admit to having that thought until recently. There isn't anything economically that I think leads to higher rates because the economy is not that strong and the deficit is mind boggl...
by jdilla1107
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New and Improved CAPE is Higher!
Replies: 33
Views: 3418

Re: New and Improved CAPE is Higher!

Sure I am. The earnings yield of stocks is related to the real expected return as follows: The price of a stock S=Div/(r-g) S the stock price, r the return, and g the dividend growth rate, or IOW r=S/Div+g, the return the perpetual payout of the dividend plus dividend growth. But dividend growth co...
by jdilla1107
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 year treasury yield
Replies: 34
Views: 3098

Re: 10 year treasury yield

Here is a historical graph of the 10 year treasury rate from 1870 to today:

https://www.multpl.com/10-year-treasury-rate
by jdilla1107
Tue Aug 06, 2019 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New and Improved CAPE is Higher!
Replies: 33
Views: 3418

Re: New and Improved CAPE is Higher!

But then had Shiller not come up with his new methodology, you would have expected return of 3% real. (not that this is much of a difference) Yes. (Edit: though I actually get my data from Star Capital web site rather than Shiller, as they give data for all countries. Don't know which method they u...
by jdilla1107
Tue Aug 06, 2019 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: EE bonds over munis?
Replies: 4
Views: 617

Re: EE bonds over munis?

I love EE Bonds and have been maxing them for 10 years. They continue to be a great deal. The main "downside" is that EE bonds are clearly bad for rebalancing. So, just make sure you have enough in other bonds to rebalance from if stocks drop significantly. I agree they are better than munis, assumi...
by jdilla1107
Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Increase stocks during bear market?
Replies: 14
Views: 1583

Re: Increase stocks during bear market?

The flaw is that it would have been "better" (following your definition of better) to just have been 90% equities the whole time. Let's say 2 years pass from when you shift from 70/30 to 90/10. Are you really going to say to yourself: "That day two years ago was a really special day that I need to a...
by jdilla1107
Sun Aug 04, 2019 10:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Looking to move to another state.
Replies: 11
Views: 1366

Re: Looking to move to another state.

You haven't said nearly enough about your annual expenses. How much did you spend last year? Is the goal to spend 130k in retirement? For expenses, don't forget to include: - ACA premiums - car/house Insurance - property taxes - income taxes - One time costs (buying a car) People certainly retire on...
by jdilla1107
Sat Jul 27, 2019 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on P2P Lending
Replies: 37
Views: 2968

Re: Thoughts on P2P Lending

The main problem that I encountered was that: - If you only put a small amount of money into P2P (eg: 1-2% of portfolio), then messing around with it became not worth my time and made no difference to my portfolio. - If you do a part of your portfolio that actually makes a difference, (ie: 20%) then...
by jdilla1107
Wed Jul 24, 2019 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why long-term bonds aren't awesome
Replies: 120
Views: 25728

Re: Explain why long-term bonds aren't awesome

EE Bonds are pretty awesome if held for exactly 20 years. - They effectively yield 3.53%, which is 50% higher than a 20 year treasury right now. - They have a free put option in case interest rates increase a lot. (You can sell them for a bit more than what you paid) - They are tax deferred. I have ...
by jdilla1107
Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth
Replies: 200
Views: 16941

Re: Roth > Taxable > tIRA

They key with a TIRA is to engage is tax arbitrage. So, you need to consider using a TIRA to defer paying taxes at a marginal rate of say 37% and then withdrawing money at say 5%. It really depends on to what extent you can engineer your retirement income. Some people will have no room to maneuver (...
by jdilla1107
Sun Jul 21, 2019 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long is too long trying to rebalance with contributions?
Replies: 21
Views: 2060

Re: How long is too long trying to rebalance with contributions?

Have you already stopped reinvesting dividends in your taxable accounts? That alone moves 2% of your stocks to bonds every year. Have you used the part of your portfolio that is in tax advantaged to help with rebalancing already? Personally, I would try pretty hard not to sell highly appreciated sto...
by jdilla1107
Mon Jul 15, 2019 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will you buy Total Bond with a negative yield?
Replies: 112
Views: 13963

Re: Will you buy Total Bond with a negative yield?

willthrill81 wrote: Sun Jul 14, 2019 8:51 pm As long as savings accounts are paying 0% or more, I cannot fathom why you would do so.
There aren't savings accounts and CDs in most people's 401ks.
by jdilla1107
Sun Jul 14, 2019 7:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 10k every year to mortgage or taxable brokerage
Replies: 20
Views: 2184

Re: 10k every year to mortgage or taxable brokerage

From a pure cash flow perspective, it doesn't make sense to hold 40% in bonds at around 2% and a mortgage at 3.25%. You are literally losing money every month you hold this position. (Although it does depend on how taxes work out.) You are doing the opposite of what you do to make money. You are bor...
by jdilla1107
Sun Jul 14, 2019 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why mutual funds are more dangerous than ETFs
Replies: 32
Views: 4158

Re: Why mutual funds are more dangerous than ETFs

lostdog wrote: Sun Jul 14, 2019 10:52 am Click bait noise to generate ad revenue. This stuff seems to be getting worse with junk articles like this.
Did you read the article? The OP jumped to their own conclusion not made in the article, so what are you saying is junk?
by jdilla1107
Sun Jul 14, 2019 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why mutual funds are more dangerous than ETFs
Replies: 32
Views: 4158

Re: Why mutual funds are more dangerous than ETFs

lazyeval wrote: Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:58 pm Perhaps so, but the you would be exposed to the risks that ETFs carry. Remember the flash crash days? No way the mutual funds would be caught in that.
Mutual funds buy and sell underlying assets during the day and can definitely be affected by a flash crash.
by jdilla1107
Sun Jul 14, 2019 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why mutual funds are more dangerous than ETFs
Replies: 32
Views: 4158

Re: Why mutual funds are more dangerous than ETFs

This is a silly article. If you're not trading daily, the ETF has the same issues as the mutual fund. This is not correct. Liquidity issues in an ETF are forced entirely onto the seller/buyer of the ETF. Liquidity issues on a mutual fund are shared by all participants in the fund whether they take ...
by jdilla1107
Thu Jul 11, 2019 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation of the Ultra-Wealthy, can I copy their portfolio with index funds?
Replies: 63
Views: 5879

Re: Asset Allocation of the Ultra-Wealthy, can I copy their portfolio with index funds?

Are you sure "real estate" doesn't include the house(s) they live in? Are you sure "private equity" doesn't include a business they own or are a partner of? There is a big difference depending on what these mean. I am wealthy and think investing as a LP in a PE fund is not a good idea. The fees are ...
by jdilla1107
Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No advantage to doing Roth conversions?
Replies: 21
Views: 3214

Re: No advantage to doing Roth conversions?

The idea is to do partial Roth conversions in years where your income would otherwise be zero or very low. You are trying to smooth out your taxable income over a number of years. (Note that what you spend can be very different than how the IRS sees your income in a year.) If all your money is in a ...
by jdilla1107
Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit Card Sign up bonuses
Replies: 16
Views: 1872

Re: Credit Card Sign up bonuses

whodidntante wrote: Mon Jul 08, 2019 9:24 pm Here's the flowchart from /r/churning.
https://i.imgur.com/3XOcRlT.png
I used to think I was pretty savvy at this game. After looking at /r/churning for 15mins, I realize there exists a group of people taking this WAY beyond my level. Wow, I had no idea... I feel like an amateur now... :D
by jdilla1107
Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit Card Sign up bonuses
Replies: 16
Views: 1872

Credit Card Sign up bonuses

I have been doing credit card sign up bonuses for 3 years now and have done all of these for my spouse and I: Chase Sapphire Barclay Arrival Capital One Venture Rewards Citi Thank you Premier Capital One Savor Bank of America Premium Rewards I feel like I am running out of new cards without getting ...
by jdilla1107
Sun Jun 30, 2019 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Churning Credit Cards
Replies: 84
Views: 9543

Re: Churning Credit Cards

LilyFleur wrote: Sun Jun 30, 2019 2:32 pm
bck63 wrote: Fri May 17, 2019 7:11 pm Get the Fidelity Signature VISA with 2% cash back on everything and call it a day. They put the money right into your brokerage account.
Is the 2% rebate tax-free?
Yes, all credit card rebates are tax free.
by jdilla1107
Mon Jun 24, 2019 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SPY buyback adjusted yield
Replies: 10
Views: 956

Re: SPY buyback adjusted yield

SP500 earnings yield is a widely followed metric: https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings-yield It sounds like maybe you are trying to come up with your own definition of earnings though? To me, it makes more sense to compare earnings yield to say a treasury bond. Dividend yield and buybacks are jus...
by jdilla1107
Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you buy VTSAX or VTI in a taxable account?
Replies: 16
Views: 2127

Re: Should you buy VTSAX or VTI in a taxable account?

A lot of the information on this forum about ETFs vs mutual funds is wrong or half-wrong. People display cognitive bias when debating this.(ie: whatever they have picked is objectively better.) The short answer is that it doesn't really matter. You should spend about 15 minutes looking into this and...
by jdilla1107
Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs
Replies: 193
Views: 11354

Re: The Case Against ETFs

In addition to #2 being wrong, #3 is also wrong. The liquidity of the ETF is expressed in the bid/ask spread, which is exactly where it should be expressed. The liquidity of the mutual fund is expressed with a made up number. (NAV) If lots of people sell a mutual fund in an illiquid market, it can ...
by jdilla1107
Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs
Replies: 193
Views: 11354

Re: The Case Against ETFs

In addition to #2 being wrong, #3 is also wrong. The liquidity of the ETF is expressed in the bid/ask spread, which is exactly where it should be expressed. The liquidity of the mutual fund is expressed with a made up number. (NAV) If lots of people sell a mutual fund in an illiquid market, it can h...
by jdilla1107
Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs
Replies: 193
Views: 11354

Re: The Case Against ETFs

Your #2 is an illusion and is actually worse for mutual funds. Mutual funds have more cash drag than ETFs. The cash is still sitting in a bank account, just on the other side of the fund. Mutual funds are more inefficient in this regard.
by jdilla1107
Mon Jun 10, 2019 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FTE position - health benefits start in 60 days
Replies: 8
Views: 480

Re: FTE position - health benefits start in 60 days

The rationale is that it prevents people from running out and getting a job if they are uninsured and need medical care quickly. (ie: pregnancy, major diagnosis.) Enforcing this policy lowers group premiums for a company. Bigger companies won't care if it saves them a bit on their health costs, beca...
by jdilla1107
Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why put money in a Tax deferred 401k if Taxes will be higher in the future?
Replies: 25
Views: 2389

Re: Why put money in a Tax deferred 401k if Taxes will be higher in the future?

> Why put money in a Tax deferred 401k if Taxes will be higher in the future? Because maybe they won't be? And more importantly, maybe they won't be for your personal situation. It doesn't really matter what happens with the general level of taxes, only your own situation. Will you be making 7 figu...
by jdilla1107
Mon Jun 03, 2019 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Convince me to sell ESPP / Company Stock
Replies: 22
Views: 1526

Re: Convince me to sell ESPP / Company Stock

That way my company stock will either return market rate or better. This conclusion is not logical. You actually listed cases where the stock will not return a market rate. So, how can it therefore "return market rate or better"? If your logic is "I'll just sell before it falls a lot", then make su...
by jdilla1107
Wed May 29, 2019 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2% withdrawal rate
Replies: 182
Views: 15043

Re: 2% withdrawal rate

I'm of the opinion that a 2% withdrawal rate or less is the only prudent way to draw on one's portfolio for retirement before the age of 50. Does anyone disagree with this opinion? If so, why? 2% is generally considered a safe withdrawal to last forever. So, this would be very conservative. You wil...
by jdilla1107
Wed May 29, 2019 3:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can wife invest in both Deferred Comp and SIMPLE IRA
Replies: 12
Views: 783

Re: Can wife invest in both Deferred Comp and SIMPLE IRA

Each person over 50 can only contribute 25,000 as an employee regardless of the number of employers you have. So, you can't contribute more as an employee. I think the fact that this is a "deferred comp plan" (presumably a 457b) means she can fill both. If her work plan were a 401k, the combined li...
by jdilla1107
Wed May 29, 2019 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can wife invest in both Deferred Comp and SIMPLE IRA
Replies: 12
Views: 783

Re: Can wife invest in both Deferred Comp and SIMPLE IRA

Note that the employer contribution is also limited to 25% of business profits.
by jdilla1107
Wed May 29, 2019 12:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can wife invest in both Deferred Comp and SIMPLE IRA
Replies: 12
Views: 783

Re: Can wife invest in both Deferred Comp and SIMPLE IRA

Each person over 50 can only contribute 25,000 as an employee regardless of the number of employers you have. So, you can't contribute more as an employee. However, if you open a Solo 401k under the side business, you can contribute more as the employer . Look up "employee and employer Solo 401k con...
by jdilla1107
Tue May 21, 2019 12:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories
Replies: 223
Views: 16409

Re: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories

If you work to help pay essential bills, you're not financially independent yet, and you're not retired. You might be close. You might have enough that you could quit your full-time job you hated, and get a part-time job you love. That's great. That's wonderful. That's not "retired". Now, if you do...
by jdilla1107
Tue May 21, 2019 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories
Replies: 223
Views: 16409

Re: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories

I always laugh at the "retirement police" who find it acceptable to volunteer (work for free) in retirement, but who think you are not allowed to make money. You are certainly allowed. The problems, from a financial point of view, begin when you have to at which point it is me the one who does most...
by jdilla1107
Tue May 21, 2019 8:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories
Replies: 223
Views: 16409

Re: FIRE - What am I missing in the News Stories

People here really don't get it. FIRE stands for "financial Independence, retire early". The financial independence part is just as important as the retire early part. If someone is FIRE at 35 it can mean they are financially independent now and planning to do a traditional retirement at 50. People ...
by jdilla1107
Mon May 13, 2019 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Vanguard ETF and MF works
Replies: 2
Views: 606

Re: How Vanguard ETF and MF works

It's clear that MF holders benefit with this structure. Many articles talk about benefits to MF holders. I have never seen any analysis of whether the ETF holders are negatively impacted by this structure. Is it a given that there are is always "extra" ETF benefit to spread to the MF holders? It wou...
by jdilla1107
Thu May 09, 2019 6:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pre-existing condition + insurance in retirement
Replies: 13
Views: 1531

Re: Pre-existing condition + insurance in retirement

The ACA (Obamacare) makes it so the answer is "yes, you can absolutely get private insurance". You will also not pay higher prices based on pre-existing conditions and only your age will be used to determine prices. You can get an ACA quote right now from many different sites. You can also get tax c...
by jdilla1107
Wed May 08, 2019 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Imperfect market timing still works -- if you stick with it
Replies: 151
Views: 12918

Re: Imperfect market timing still works -- if you stick with it

These are some of the 'deep risks' that I'm at least attempting to guard against with my strategy. I might fail miserably in this effort, but at least I tried. Why not just carry some put options to ensure your portfolio against a deep risk? Say 30% below current market levels. I am not recommendin...
by jdilla1107
Wed May 08, 2019 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Imperfect market timing still works -- if you stick with it
Replies: 151
Views: 12918

Re: Imperfect market timing still works -- if you stick with it

Buy and Hold can also yield negative results. It seems obvious to me that MA trend-following will allow you to mitigate some of the losses during large market drawdowns. If one believes there will be no large market drawdowns in the future, then it will fail. If there was an approach that could red...
by jdilla1107
Wed May 08, 2019 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Imperfect market timing still works -- if you stick with it
Replies: 151
Views: 12918

Re: Imperfect market timing still works -- if you stick with it

" the data suggests that using a quantitative, rules-based approach to market timing can yield positive results." Of course it can. It can also yield negative results. :shock: Lot's of people can be successful with market timing. The trick is picking who will be successful before hand. The classic e...
by jdilla1107
Wed May 08, 2019 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TD Ameritrade Expanding List of Commission-Free ETFs
Replies: 17
Views: 2384

Re: TD Ameritrade Expanding List of Commission-Free ETFs

This change is going to make me keep Lively HSA. I think Lively is now just as free as Fidelity for an HSA. Thanks for posting. Instead of scanning the PDF, they also have a nice search function here which allows you to search by fees, net assets, and so on: https://research.tdameritrade.com/grid/pu...
by jdilla1107
Sun Apr 28, 2019 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's writes--Vanguard Keeps Some of Its Cheapest Funds Out of Reach for Fidelity Customers
Replies: 10
Views: 2280

Re: Barron's writes--Vanguard Keeps Some of Its Cheapest Funds Out of Reach for Fidelity Customers

I think the situation is more nuanced than this report suggests. I own all of these funds at non-Vanguard brokerages in personal taxable accounts. VFIJX - Vanguard GNMA Fund Admiral Shares (VFIJX) VFIDX - Vanguard Intermediate-Term Investment-Grade Fund Admiral Shares VWIUX - Vanguard Intermediate-T...
by jdilla1107
Sat Apr 27, 2019 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Lowers 21 ETF Expense Ratios
Replies: 76
Views: 8893

Re: Vanguard Lowers 21 ETF Expense Ratios

This makes perfect sense to me. ETFs are more efficient to the Vanguard fund model, so there should be a small incentive to use them. While ETFs are slightly less convenient to use an investor, Vanguard MF customers are getting the benefit of the people who use ETFs. So, MF customers should pay a bi...