Search found 1344 matches

by dkturner
Wed Apr 13, 2016 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOL fiduciary rule, will anything change?
Replies: 25
Views: 3414

Re: DOL fiduciary rule, will anything change?

I wonder how many funds might have to shut down because FAs won't be able to recommend them as being in the client's best interest. But Registered Investment Advisors, who have been subject to the fiduciary standard for decades, have frequently recommended all kinds of high expense, poorly performi...
by dkturner
Wed Apr 13, 2016 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Dividends a Substitute for Value?
Replies: 20
Views: 1901

Re: Are Dividends a Substitute for Value?

.... but if you want to load up on the "value factor" (for whatever reason), there are better ways to do that then using dividends. I think so too, although there are sometimes exceptions. For instance, I'd rather have Vanguard High Dividend Yield than Vanguard Large Value if I wanted more exposure...
by dkturner
Tue Apr 12, 2016 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing in a taxable account isn't so simple
Replies: 68
Views: 9661

Re: Rebalancing

What is it that Jack and I don't understand? I have a fund like that. Maybe you didn't understand that one doesn't need to automatically reinvest distributions? We haven't since 2010 (dumb move - should have played the momentum) and still have a substantial gain. I'm not complaining, just curious a...
by dkturner
Tue Apr 12, 2016 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing in a taxable account isn't so simple
Replies: 68
Views: 9661

Re: Rebalancing

* Therefore, it is important to maintain our asset-allocation plan by rebalancing when a fund deviates (perhaps 5% or more). Due to strong market appreciation since 2009 our taxable accounts hold positions in TSM that are way in excess of our IPS guidlines. If we were to rebalance the combined fede...
by dkturner
Mon Apr 11, 2016 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing in a taxable account isn't so simple
Replies: 68
Views: 9661

Re: "Reading Room" by Eric Haas

Neomutiny06: Rebalancing a portfolio is a controversial subject. You will find 16 articles about it in Eric Haas's " Reading Room. " http://www.altruistfa.com/readingroomarticles.htm#Rebalancing When experts disagree it is often because it makes no foreseeable difference. Best wishes. Taylor Rebala...
by dkturner
Sat Apr 09, 2016 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton G. Malkiel - New advice for bond portfolios
Replies: 41
Views: 7230

Re: Burton G. Malkiel - New advice for bond portfolios

Absorb the contradictory advice. Look at some data for yourself , don't just look where other people are pointing. Decide for yourself whether you, for example, feel that volatility is risk or not. When you feel well-informed (well, nobody ever reaches that state)... when you feel that you've taken...
by dkturner
Sat Apr 09, 2016 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing to control risk doesn't make sense to me
Replies: 175
Views: 14627

Re: Rebalancing to control risk doesn't make sense to me

So let's say I've got a 50/50 portfolio. Stocks surge and suddenly I'm 60/40. My risk has increased, right? Well, the probable volatility of my portfolio has increased, but do I have a higher risk of running out of money? No! I've gained MORE money from the rising stocks, Actually, no, you haven't....
by dkturner
Sat Apr 09, 2016 6:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing to control risk doesn't make sense to me
Replies: 175
Views: 14627

Re: Rebalancing to control risk doesn't make sense to me

So let's say I've got a 50/50 portfolio. Stocks surge and suddenly I'm 60/40. My risk has increased, right? Well, the probable volatility of my portfolio has increased, but do I have a higher risk of running out of money? No! I've gained MORE money from the rising stocks, Actually, no, you haven't....
by dkturner
Fri Apr 08, 2016 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Keys to Active Management
Replies: 10
Views: 1335

Re: The Keys to Active Management

hlfo718 wrote:I have no problem paying index fund like fees to Vanguard's active funds such as their Equity Income, Wellington, and Wellesley Funds.
+1.

Vanguard's low cost actively managed funds (both equity and fixed income) certainly have helped our returns over the last 20+ years.
by dkturner
Thu Apr 07, 2016 5:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the inflation risk premium fallen? Is it now negative?
Replies: 22
Views: 3638

Re: Has the inflation risk premium fallen? Is it now negative?

Inflation "died" in 1981, but it took decades for investors to accept its multigenerational decline. As inflation begins to increase again it may well take a very long time for the average investor to accept the fact that the future isn't what it used to be. Personally I have always been suspicious ...
by dkturner
Tue Apr 05, 2016 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New LD rules driving index investing?
Replies: 2
Views: 445

Re: New LD rules driving index investing?

Even the slowest to learn brokers seem to have figured out that the name of the game is increasingly tied to the use of ETFs. That's the good news. The bad news is that most of them have no clue that ETFs are simply index funds in disguise.
by dkturner
Tue Apr 05, 2016 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why own (non-index) mutual funds at all?
Replies: 43
Views: 4952

Re: Why own (non-index) mutual funds at all?

Because as Vanguard is happy to tell you "Over the past ten years, 95% of Vanguard actively managed funds have outperformed", which is why they have nearly $1 trillion in actively managed assets, about one-third of their total. Just don't ask "outperformed what?" because I don't think the answer is...
by dkturner
Tue Apr 05, 2016 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spiva's international scorecard for 2015
Replies: 4
Views: 580

Re: Spiva's international scorecard for 2015

Larry, what's your take on the 10 return of asset weighted bond funds vs. their benchmarks?
by dkturner
Tue Apr 05, 2016 7:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why own (non-index) mutual funds at all?
Replies: 43
Views: 4952

Re: "The Biggest Mistake"

What say you? Leave Wellesley alone or change it? JW-Retired: I would change it to an all indexed portfolio. Results are often luck and managers change. For example: On December 31, 1999, Wellesley (VWINX) had a cumulative 5-year return of 81.8% ; Life Cycle Conservative Growth (VSCGX) had a cumula...
by dkturner
Mon Apr 04, 2016 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why own (non-index) mutual funds at all?
Replies: 43
Views: 4952

Re: Why own (non-index) mutual funds at all?

Wondering how many Bhs own funds that are outside of the standard low-cost index (including bond index) funds? And if so, what's your logic, based on the generally accepted principle that these funds won't outperform index/tracking funds over the long term. I often wonder why Vanguard even offers m...
by dkturner
Fri Apr 01, 2016 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Listen to Jack on this one [prefer Intermediate-term bond index]
Replies: 48
Views: 7812

Re: Listen to Jack on this one

I agree with Jack when he says you don't need international and I also agree when he says all you need is one fund (if it is in a 401K or IRA) which is the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund. Having said that, I currently hold two funds in my 401K which is the Vanguard Institutional Index Fund and the Ba...
by dkturner
Fri Apr 01, 2016 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simplified account structure for Vanguard clients?
Replies: 14
Views: 2442

Re: Simplified account structure for Vanguard clients?

... but it does not show all the individual transactions for the year, only for that month, and then an aggregate summary of the year as I said above. Each of the monthly statements are easily available with all the transactions for that month, but they don't show on my year end statement. I don't ...
by dkturner
Thu Mar 31, 2016 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simplified account structure for Vanguard clients?
Replies: 14
Views: 2442

Re: Simplified account structure for Vanguard clients?

Question: We have opted to receive our monthly mutual fund statements electronically, with a single year end physical copy. We do this to receive a 12 month physical copy which lists ALL transactions for all mutual funds for the entire year. The Vanguard brokerage account monthly statements only li...
by dkturner
Thu Mar 31, 2016 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simplified account structure for Vanguard clients?
Replies: 14
Views: 2442

Re: Simplified account structure for Vanguard clients?

I'm now forced to use a "settlement account" - I used to be able to direct deposit directly into funds, now I can only DD into the settlement account, and then have to divide (or setup automatic investment amounts) on that account (or my linked bank account). I used to be able to hold a Short Term ...
by dkturner
Mon Mar 28, 2016 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do classic portfolios need to be adjusted in 2016?
Replies: 22
Views: 2667

Re: Why do classic portfolios need to be adjusted in 2016?

A long-term strategy that's revised every few years isn't a long-term strategy. It's that simple. It's an intermediate-term strategy or a short-term strategy. I don't have any great answers myself, but strategies that are based on long-term data, and that explicitly tell adopters to be prepared to ...
by dkturner
Sun Mar 27, 2016 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do with Roth IRA (Unique Circumstance)
Replies: 17
Views: 1735

Re: What to do with Roth IRA (Unique Circumstance)

Would it help if you increased your TSP contributions and use the funds in your ROTH IRA to supplement your living expenses?
by dkturner
Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Rarely Noted "Real Returns"
Replies: 45
Views: 6177

Re: The Rarely Noted "Real Returns"

QuietWealth: Wow...this was eye-opening and thought provoking. Is this a fair takeaway from your data? The 'net net' is that an 80/20 portfolio yielded ~5.5% return after inflation. The 'net net' is that a 60/40 portfolio yielded a ~4.5% return after inflation [the 4.5% is the approximate midpoint ...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 23, 2016 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Rarely Noted "Real Returns"
Replies: 45
Views: 6177

Re: The Rarely Noted "Real Returns"

What really jumped out at me was that with an 80/20 portfolio there's was virtually no difference in real returns between the two periods.
by dkturner
Tue Mar 22, 2016 5:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the point of a dividend?
Replies: 92
Views: 8353

Re: What is the point of a dividend?

If a company does buybacks, that decreases the number of outstanding shares and your shares increase in value. However, if the company then uses those buyback shares to pay their employees, the number of outstanding shares goes back up, and your increased value disappears. On the other hand, if the...
by dkturner
Mon Mar 21, 2016 6:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the point of a dividend?
Replies: 92
Views: 8353

Re: What is the point of a dividend?

The most basic valuation model is the dividend discount model. It takes all future dividends and discounts them. Stocks without dividends can't be valued using this model. Think about it carefully if a company has a policy of never returning cash then the value of their stock should be zero. Becaus...
by dkturner
Mon Mar 21, 2016 6:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What bond funds do you use, and why?
Replies: 55
Views: 6182

Re: What bond funds do you use, and why?

I use the Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund as the "bond" fund in my rollover IRA. I like its bond portfolio, which is higher in quality than other Vanguard corporate bond fund offerings. I think it's duration is more appropriate than the duration of the Vanguard Long-Term Investment Grade Fund, which ...
by dkturner
Sun Mar 20, 2016 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the point of a dividend?
Replies: 92
Views: 8353

Re: What is the point of a dividend?

The ultimate impact on returns between dividend-seeking and dividend-avoiding behavior is likely not nearly as material as savings rate, asset allocation, etc. but mathematically, there will be a lower return from the tax drag of high dividends versus the delaying of taxation through zero/low divid...
by dkturner
Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the point of a dividend?
Replies: 92
Views: 8353

Re: What is the point of a dividend?

Whats the point? You get your dividend money and your fund falls by an equivalent amount. Then you are taxed on your so called "earnings", when your net worth is unchanged. Can anyone explain why these things even exist. Just sell some of your fund if you want the cash. What am I missing here? Hist...
by dkturner
Fri Mar 18, 2016 6:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard converting mutual fund accounts to brokerage?
Replies: 400
Views: 83748

Re: "Vanguard converting mutual fund accounts to brokerage?

I got an invitation for this service today and was told on sign on that none of my accounts were eligible. You'd think their analytics department would know this and that I wouldn't have received the email... Same old same old except my invite was some 18 months ago. :D It's not that they don't kno...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 16, 2016 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: interesting view of how to measure performance
Replies: 2
Views: 424

Re: interesting view of how to measure performance

I've posted a Morgan Housel article link before, I'm a fan of his writing. A recent article about measuring performance and indexes struck a nerve with me and I imagine others might find it interesting too. So, here's a question: What's an appropriate benchmark? The hypothetical return of what some...
by dkturner
Mon Mar 14, 2016 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Debt Inflation" book - Any thoughts?
Replies: 10
Views: 1824

Re: "Debt Inflation" book - Benjamin Moore - Any thoughts?

I thought Benjamin Moore was the paint guy. Does he dabble in macroeconomics too? :D
by dkturner
Sat Mar 05, 2016 6:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Active Funds in Which You Invest
Replies: 76
Views: 7076

Re: Poll: Active Funds in Which You Invest

Currently:
Vanguard Global Minimum Volatility Fund
Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund

In the past:
Vanguard Equity Income Fund
Vanguard Intermediate-Term Investment Grade Fund
Vanguard International Value Fund
by dkturner
Tue Mar 01, 2016 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: small value index fund annual report: two things that struck me
Replies: 8
Views: 1460

Re: small value index fund annual report: two things that struck me

I don't see how it can be risk free, and to a (tiny) extent it compromises one of the things that gives me confidence in mutual funds: the fact that you are not paying up front now for something promised for later. Rather, if you pay $10,000 to purchase fund shares, it is promptly used to buy $10,0...
by dkturner
Fri Feb 26, 2016 6:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where does the money go when stocks and bonds are in the red ?
Replies: 34
Views: 5462

Re: Where does the money go when stocks and bonds are in the red ?

I think you're having trouble understanding "where does the money go" because you're looking at stock/bond sales as though they were redemptions (like redeeming a certificate of deposit at your local bank) rather than exchanges with another investor (which is how your stocks/bonds "go away"). When y...
by dkturner
Thu Feb 25, 2016 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The 60/40 Portfolio Mix is Dead in 2016"
Replies: 36
Views: 7203

Re: "The 60/40 Portfolio Mix is Dead in 2016"

So the take away is that because banks are trying to manipulate us into buying higher risk investments that we should do so? :confused Central banks aren't "trying to manipulate us into buying higher risk investments" that is simply the net result of their attempts to keep interest rates lower than...
by dkturner
Thu Feb 25, 2016 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The 60/40 Portfolio Mix is Dead in 2016"
Replies: 36
Views: 7203

Re: "The 60/40 Portfolio Mix is Dead in 2016"

Nisi, your first image shows different funds from what you analyzed; specifically you used the fund EEM, but the first image references EMB instead (which is a very different fund). This leads to a different set of results. The volatility of the surrogate bond portfolio is reduced dramatically.... ...
by dkturner
Wed Feb 24, 2016 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15
Replies: 353
Views: 59845

Re: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15

Looks like our marking timing virtuoso has slipped away into the night.
by dkturner
Tue Feb 23, 2016 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confirmed: Vanguard Margin -> Roth (Cash) Transfer Glitch
Replies: 7
Views: 1054

Re: Confirmed: Vanguard Margin -> Roth (Cash) Transfer Glitch

I've been dealing with a persistent bug in Vanguard's system since the beginning of the year, when I tried to make our first Roth IRA contributions at Vanguard by exchanging from Vanguard Limited-Term Tax Exempt (VMLTX) in our joint taxable account to my and my wife's Roth IRAs. I posted about it i...
by dkturner
Mon Feb 22, 2016 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My friend "proves" active management works
Replies: 51
Views: 6386

Re: My friend "proves" active management works

My friend is a big denier of index funds. He showed me a few Templeton funds that have outperformed their indexes over the past 10-15 years, even after expenses. He had the hard data to show me....I didn't know how to reply to him. I think he was referring to the World Fund and a few others. I have...
by dkturner
Fri Feb 19, 2016 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active or Passive bond funds through Vanguard?
Replies: 6
Views: 1343

Re: Active or Passive bond funds through Vanguard?

Its tough to do a comparison of Vanguard's actively managed bond funds with indexed bond funds/ETFs because the Vanguard actively managed bond funds, pretty much uniformly, invest in higher quality issues. As an example compare the portfolio make-up of the actively managed Vanguard Intermediate-Term...
by dkturner
Fri Feb 19, 2016 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active vs. Passive Management
Replies: 23
Views: 2544

Re: Active vs. Passive Management

Apparently the debate's not settled?? arcticpineapple: " It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it ." By Upton Sinclair https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=156425 Best wishes Taylor I couldn't agree more. I'm also s...
by dkturner
Thu Feb 18, 2016 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy According to AA but Never Rebalance
Replies: 40
Views: 2870

Re: Buy According to AA but Never Rebalance

Is it possible to have an asset allocation that doesn't require rebalancing? I'm thinking about a situation where an investor has a sufficient $ allocation to high quality intermediate-term fixed income to cover all living expenses (not covered by SS or fixed benefit pension) until age 90-95. Maybe ...
by dkturner
Wed Feb 17, 2016 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't understand SEC yield
Replies: 13
Views: 2374

Re: Don't understand SEC yield

So I have about $25,000 worth of Int-Term Tax Exempt. I get a dividend of roughly $60 a month from it. It fluctuates by a few dollars, but hardly very much. So $60 x 12 months is 720. 720 / 25000 is 2.88%. The SEC yield for this fund is listed as 1.36%, which is less than half of what I'm actually ...
by dkturner
Wed Feb 17, 2016 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Disappearing premiums!
Replies: 157
Views: 21765

Re: Disappearing premiums!

Larry, We have held our value allocation in Vanguard Equity Income Fund and Wellesley Income Fund since late 1999. Equity Income Fund has outdistanced the S&P 500 by a healthy margin and Wellesley is also outdistancing a comparably weighted mix of the S&P 500 and Barclays 5-10 Year Credit Index by a...
by dkturner
Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [NY Times article: 100% Stock Allocation in Retirement]
Replies: 127
Views: 16413

Re: Stock Allocation in Retirement

My personal circumstances are pretty good. I decided I had more than enough and took Dr. Bernstein's idea to heart by having enough "safe" assets to fund my current withdrawal amount to age 90. My stock allocation is at 40%. It may go higher when I collect SS in 2 years. I don't like plunging equit...
by dkturner
Fri Feb 12, 2016 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Aren't Long Term Treasuries Recommended Instead of Total Bond Market?
Replies: 55
Views: 9587

Re: Why Aren't Long Term Treasuries Recommended Instead of Total Bond Market?

My point is if you use bonds as a safety (a hedge) for market downturns to even out your returns, then long term treasuries seem like a superior asset than a shorter term total bond market fund. The issue is that while a market downturn is one of the major risks you need to protect against, it's no...
by dkturner
Thu Feb 11, 2016 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: White Kitchen Cabinets?
Replies: 55
Views: 7181

Re: White Kitchen Cabinets?

White cabinets and trim work for that matter seems to be the latest trend that's for sure, about all I see the newer model homes. We had our kitchen redone last year, replacing our white cabinets with maple cabinets. The guys who installed the new cabinets said they were glad to see someone actuall...
by dkturner
Fri Feb 05, 2016 5:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re Yale Endowment, via Bloomberg
Replies: 10
Views: 1657

Re: Re Yale Endowment, via Bloomberg

I do think they could make more if they saved all the management fees, both internally and on the active funds, and just went with a low cost passive fund. They have enough to create their own funds internally. But I just don't see these folks giving up the power and control. It's easy to prove you...
by dkturner
Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do value stocks outperform growth when rates rise?
Replies: 4
Views: 619

Re: Do value stocks outperform growth when rates rise?

Well, this back of the envelope study doesn't really pass rigid academic standards, but looking at the interest rates on 5 year US Treasury notes, L-C growth stocks and L-C value stocks from 1963 through 2015 here what I "discovered": 1963-1970. 5 year rates +3.70 total, L-C growth +8.15 annualized,...
by dkturner
Tue Feb 02, 2016 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charles Ellis' suggested portfolios by age
Replies: 53
Views: 8294

Re: Charles Ellis' suggested portfolios by age

It would be foolish to use age as the sole variable when deciding your portfolio. +1 Agree. I respectfully disagree with Mr. Ellis's advice for most people. The trouble is it is basically hindsight bias. To be blunt, the perspective of an older successful gentleman looking back at his youth and say...