Search found 1358 matches

by dkturner
Wed Oct 22, 2008 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When to invest in TIPS
Replies: 21
Views: 4109

Sidney, I believe Valuethinker is referring to the yield above "inflation", as opposed to yield in excess of changes in the CPI. Inflation and changes in CPI, though similar, are not necessarily the same. There has always been "informed speculation" (for lack of a better term) that CPI changes under...
by dkturner
Sat Oct 18, 2008 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New WBern Article: The Dark Side of the Moon
Replies: 48
Views: 13182

Larry, Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't this current financial mess originate with those institutional, fixed income, investors who bought at least $1 trillion of those toxic, trashy, fixed income investments they are now stuck with? I'm not sure I'm ready to make the leap of faith and assume the...
by dkturner
Sat Oct 18, 2008 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What % of your stock allocation is international, and why?
Replies: 90
Views: 17027

I'm at about 29% currently. I had been about 36%, but lucked out by rebalancing earlier this year (I was a little early in doing so). I also do 1/3 Europe, 1/3 Pacific and 1/3 Emerging Markets - more diversification that way (US and Europe have been highly correlated in direction, but not necessaril...
by dkturner
Sat Oct 18, 2008 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There should be a law against this - What can be done?
Replies: 12
Views: 2848

I'd like to reinforce Tet's comment about doing the math. If annuity annual expenses are 2.5%, and stepson has to wait 7 years to avoid a surrender charge, he will pay 17.5% in expenses over next 7 years. With a Vanguard target retirement fund, as an example, he would pay only about 1.75%. That mean...
by dkturner
Thu Oct 16, 2008 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Secular Bear Market
Replies: 14
Views: 3045

Hollowcave said:

"Brinker uses these cycles to time the market, but even he missed this latest decline".

Even HE missed the latest decline? Sounds like this Brinker guy - whoever he is - is one awesome dude!

Do you guys have any mathematically tested basis for this drivel?
by dkturner
Thu Oct 16, 2008 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Secular Bear Market
Replies: 14
Views: 3045

Help me understand this secular stuff

How about giving me some help in understanding this secular bull/bear stuff. First, a brief bit of history. In March of 2000 the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund - VTSMX (a good proxy for "the" market) was valued at $35.45 per share. We all know what happened next. Now come forward a few years...
by dkturner
Thu Oct 16, 2008 1:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best timing to begin Social Security benefits
Replies: 10
Views: 2396

sscritic

Thank you very much for the concise explanation. I appreciated it very much.
by dkturner
Thu Oct 16, 2008 9:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best timing to begin Social Security benefits
Replies: 10
Views: 2396

sscritic I have reached my full retirement age, and have been receiving Medicare benefits for about a year. I am working (self employed), my earned income is relatively stable, and well in excess of the maximum subject to SS taxes. I am planning on working for several more years - but may change my ...
by dkturner
Wed Oct 15, 2008 7:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best timing to begin Social Security benefits
Replies: 10
Views: 2396

Doc You missed the point here. I am well aware of the heatthy/unhealthy thing. I'm asking about the timing - as in January, February, etc. - of the best time of the year to start receiving benefits. Example, If I get the same monthly benefit starting in June, that I would receive if I strarted recei...
by dkturner
Wed Oct 15, 2008 7:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What you need is a brand new credit card.
Replies: 40
Views: 7474

Billy,

As a former bank director I can definitively tell you that explaining the virtues of frugality to a bank customer service representative is akin to a stump preacher spreading The Word in a whorehouse. It's likely to fall on deaf ears.
by dkturner
Wed Oct 15, 2008 6:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best timing to begin Social Security benefits
Replies: 10
Views: 2396

Best timing to begin Social Security benefits

I read on the Social Security website this weekend that one should contact the SSA before applying for benefits, for help in determining the best month to begin receiving SS benefits. The article went on to say that, generally, January was the best month to begin receiving benefits. I called the mag...
by dkturner
Wed Oct 15, 2008 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sell VG Total Intl Index because of foreign tax credit?
Replies: 4
Views: 1432

Not so fast.

The Vanguard Group announced earlier this year that it is in the process of converting the Total International fund from a fund of funds to a fund investing in individual securities. As of September 30, about 52% of the foldings were individual securities.
by dkturner
Tue Oct 14, 2008 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What a wonderful time to invest new money!
Replies: 13
Views: 2563

Wab,

Banks can't buy equities with their depositors' money - which isn't such a bad idea. Knowing what they managed to do with something simple, like mortgage loans, can you imagine how "creative" banks could have been if they were allowed to invest in equities?
by dkturner
Mon Oct 13, 2008 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GNMA Fund Keeps Dropping
Replies: 4
Views: 2151

Because the value of the securities the GNMA fund invests in are dropping in value. Why is that? Because the value of most fixed income investments, other than the shortest term ones, have also been dropping in price, probably because investors have be unwilling to buy intermediate term fixed income...
by dkturner
Mon Oct 13, 2008 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WOW! Largest DOW One-Day Gain (11%) Since 1933 !!!!
Replies: 25
Views: 6166

As per professor Shiller's website, equity markets were up about 54% in 1933.
by dkturner
Fri Oct 10, 2008 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will TIP yields look like if deflation occurs?
Replies: 7
Views: 2083

fishndoc, You are correct in your analysis of newly issued TIPS versus seasoned issues. This possibility may account for some of the weakness in the TIPS market, compared to the market for nominal Treasuries, over the last week. It might be advisable to consider swappings VIPSX for newly auctioned T...
by dkturner
Fri Oct 10, 2008 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard total bond fund etf down 7%
Replies: 6
Views: 1600

Check my edited post I've added data on ETFs tracking Treasury Notes.
by dkturner
Fri Oct 10, 2008 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard total bond fund etf down 7%
Replies: 6
Views: 1600

Looks like an asset pricing issue to me. AGG 87.58 -7.11 BND 68.07 -4.10 TIP 93.68 -3.60 SHY 84.05 +.22 IEI 109.27 -.17 IEF 87.88 -.84 Much greater discrepancy with the ETFs tracking Lehman Aggregate Bond Index than ETF tracking TIPS, which is much different than the three iShares ETFs tracking Trea...
by dkturner
Fri Oct 10, 2008 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard total bond fund etf down 7%
Replies: 6
Views: 1600

Same situation with the iShares version of BND (AGG). AGG is also down more than 6%. Might be issues questioning the REAL net asset value of the securities in the Lehman Aggregate Bond Index.
by dkturner
Thu Oct 09, 2008 4:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS
Replies: 105
Views: 20707

Ken, don't take this personally, but

Ken, Don't take this personally, but IF you are correct and CPI does understate actual inflation by a meaningful amount, EVERYBODY is also aware of this and it's already priced into the real TIPS yield. It doesn't matter if the boys at the BLS are cooking the books. If so, institutional investors wo...
by dkturner
Wed Oct 08, 2008 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate: Help me understand something
Replies: 44
Views: 5130

Sidney, Help me out here understanding your train of thought. The "trick'' of picking a retirement date is to pick one when future stock markets are likely to trend higher - not lower. Obviously we can't know this in advance. However, it would seem that a 4% initial withdrawal rate, calculated on a ...
by dkturner
Tue Oct 07, 2008 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It isn't me, is it?
Replies: 3
Views: 1160

Gaius,

Maybe you were witnessing the "last supper" for the middle class (;-))
by dkturner
Tue Oct 07, 2008 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS revisited - Again
Replies: 14
Views: 2386

TIPS revisited - Again

Interesting comparison of the current yield of TIPS versus nominal Treasuries. Here is the data, late in the afternoon of October 7. Maturity Nominal TIPS Spread 5 yr 2.44 1.70 .74 10 yr 3.48 2.33 1.15 20 yr 4.17 2.59 1.58 Is this an indication that the bond market is expecting inflation in the .75%...
by dkturner
Sun Oct 05, 2008 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: USAToday>>>Stock losses take heavy toll on retireme
Replies: 22
Views: 4278

Bob, Re: postponing collecting Social Security benefits. I have read a couple of articles in prior years (I believe Scott Burns may have an article or two on this subject) arguing that beginning Social Security benefits at age 62 actually costs the system LESS money, on average, than delaying benefi...
by dkturner
Sun Oct 05, 2008 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Index Investor the Greatest Fool?
Replies: 20
Views: 5621

If norak's quote is correct, actively managed mutual funds should be losing less money than index funds, right?

Here is an article, from the October 2 issue of the Wall Street Journal, with some statistics which shed light on the subject.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122288599439394873.html
by dkturner
Sun Oct 05, 2008 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roubini- The Risk of the Mother of All Bank Runs
Replies: 16
Views: 4057

Savers can play musical banks

It would seem that moving portions of large, uninsured, deposits to several banks simply spreads the money around - it isn't going to cause bank failures. What would you do if you, and your country club buddies (or senior citizens center buddies), are worried about a failure of your local bank? You ...
by dkturner
Sun Sep 28, 2008 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing for retirees
Replies: 2
Views: 1039

Rebalancing for retirees

Has anyone seriously considered the situation faced by retirees confronted with the need (or desire, if you wish) to rebalance a portfolio back to their desired risk level. Unlike investors in the their early/mid accumulation phase, retirees have much less leeway if equity markets pull a stunt like ...
by dkturner
Sun Aug 24, 2008 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How have Stocks been Working For You?
Replies: 108
Views: 17230

Question for wab

wab

If Lehman Brothers "future is uncertain" how is it possible that its "forward P/E is about 4"? Wouldn't it be more accurate to say its "forward P/E is unknown"?
by dkturner
Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "TIPS..Inflation Expectations at Lowest Level in 5 Year
Replies: 54
Views: 9960

ssctitic wrote: "So which is the better measure of inflationary expectations, the spread between TIPS and treasuries or a spread between TIPS and a risk adjusted rate for all long bonds?" The spread between nominal Treasuries and TIPS of the same maturity seems like an apples to apples comparison. B...
by dkturner
Fri Aug 08, 2008 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond Funds recent performance
Replies: 7
Views: 2083

Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond Funds recent performance

Am I missing something or is the Vanguard Group having problems with their tax-exempt bond funds? As of 7/31 here are the 1 year returns of three of their tax-exempt funds (all of which have average maturities very close to the average maturity of their benchmarks) and the 1 year returns of their be...
by dkturner
Fri Jun 06, 2008 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can I fund a Roth this year?
Replies: 14
Views: 2958

The "deferred compensation" referred to in IRS Publication 590 is compensation (usually a bonus) that employees specifically request their employer to defer to a later year. The purpose of excluding this deferred compensation from the definition of "compensation" in the year it is actually paid to t...
by dkturner
Wed Apr 02, 2008 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax's
Replies: 6
Views: 1801

DCA - The monthly variance in your take home pay is a matter you're going to have to live with - unless you can talk your boss into developing a compensation system with a monthly draw that will treat the year end true-up payment as a bonus payment There is a separate withholding table for bonus pay...
by dkturner
Sat Mar 08, 2008 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 1099-DIV turbo tax question
Replies: 4
Views: 2019

IRS regulations require mutual funds to aggregate dividend and short-term capital gains distributions for 1099 DIV reporting purposes. When the 1099 form says "total capital gains" it really means total LONG-term capital gains. If you check your math, you will see that Vanguard has lumped your short...
by dkturner
Thu Mar 06, 2008 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: IRA's in a Revocable Trust?
Replies: 12
Views: 4164

DDB, a question for you re ownership of an IRA.

Suppose X names an intervivos trust, either revocable or irrevocable, as the beneficiary of his IRA. X then ups and dies. Who, or what, "owns" X's IRA? Everything has got to be owned by somebody and X ain't around anymore.
by dkturner
Wed Mar 05, 2008 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: some of the money you're exchanging is uncollected
Replies: 4
Views: 3799

Vanguard warning message

Chosen - The message you received from Vanguard was simply a warning - it didn't prevent you from doing what you wanted to do at the time. Why did Vanguard send you this message? To alert you to the fact that you were investing with uncollected funds. Your purchase could be undone, with possible neg...
by dkturner
Thu Feb 28, 2008 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Settlement of Trades
Replies: 4
Views: 1227

Third business day settlement of equity trades is the standard in the retail brokerage industry. It's not a Vanguard thing. What is peculiar to Vanguard (and T. Rowe Price as well) is your inability to buy a Vanguard mutual fund with the proceeds of your equity sale on its settlement date. As you ha...
by dkturner
Sat Feb 23, 2008 4:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2008 IRS Tax Rebate Checks
Replies: 9
Views: 2633

"So it looks like those who actually paid the most in taxes will get NO rebate at all? Am I reading this correctly??? This doesn't seem very fair to me."

It doesn't have to be fair - it's the law. Unlike judges, senators and congressmen have never been held to the fairness standard.
by dkturner
Sat Feb 23, 2008 3:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: where is financial engines?
Replies: 9
Views: 2358

Bob - for some reason, which I don't understand, the Vanguard website behaves differently for different users. It doesn't matter which computer I use, it behaves differently for me than it does for my wife.
by dkturner
Sat Feb 23, 2008 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: where is financial engines?
Replies: 9
Views: 2358

Financial Engines website came up for me today at 3:30 p.m. EST when I followed the instructions in my prior post.
by dkturner
Sat Feb 23, 2008 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: where is financial engines?
Replies: 9
Views: 2358

Just type "Financial Engines" in the box at the upper right hand corner of the Vanguard web site. You will then see a list of relevant pages. Click on the first mention of Financial Engines and it will come up for you.
by dkturner
Sun Dec 16, 2007 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: USAA Subscriber's Saving's Accounts
Replies: 14
Views: 9844

Maybe the distribution is a % of account value?

My 2007 USAA Subscriber Savings Account distribution was 4.05% of my beginning of 2007 account value. What % of your 2007 account value was your distribution?
by dkturner
Wed Oct 24, 2007 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation for reserves
Replies: 1
Views: 862

Asset allocation for reserves

We have always maintained a "cash reserve" equal to 6-9 months of living expenses. In practice this has been invested in an intermediate-term tax-exempt bond fund and is used for buying cars (about every 4-5 years) or major house repairs/upgrades (maybe onee every 5 years). We also have a taxable po...
by dkturner
Wed Jun 06, 2007 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Medical savings account with Vanguard funds
Replies: 2
Views: 1244

Medical savings account with Vanguard funds

Is anyone aware of a medical savings account which offers Vanguard funds as investment options?
by dkturner
Tue May 22, 2007 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100% equity works if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 77
Views: 30138

Real dividends - 1929-1942

Darin - Here is the nominal S&P 500 dividend, and CPI data for the years 1929-1942: Year Div CPI 1929 .97 .2 1930 .98 (6.0) 1931 .82 (9.5) 1932 .50 (10.3) 1933 .44 .5 1934 .49 2.0 1935 .76 3.0 1936 1.02 1.2 1937 1.13 3.1 1938 .64 (2.8) 1939 .90 (.5) 1940 1.05 1.0 1941 1.16 9.7 1942 1.03 9.3
by dkturner
Tue May 22, 2007 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100% equity works if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 77
Views: 30138

Dividends and inflation 1966-1981

Darin inquired about real dividend growth for the years 1966 through 1981. I don't have the inflation adjusted numbers, but here is a do-it-yourself S&P 500 real dividend growth kit for the years in question: Year Div CPI 1966 2.87 3.3 1967 2.92 3.0 1968 3.07 4.7 1969 3.16 6.1 1970 3.14 5.5 1971 3.0...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 21, 2007 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ed Tower examines managed funds and Dan Wiener's portfolios
Replies: 26
Views: 11250

Timeframe was way too short

Mel, I agree. I posted a reply on the other forum pointing out not only that the timeframe was very short, but it covered a period where small-cap, mid-cap and international stocks consistently had superior performance. Adding any meaningful amount of any of these three asset classes to a fund that ...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 21, 2007 6:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any Apple Mac users out there?
Replies: 29
Views: 15679

Mac and MS Office

Cyber Bob inquired about my concerns with the compatability of Macs and Microsoft Office. I routinely exchange Word and Excel cocuments with other users, primarily other individuals or small businesses. My concern is not being able to open a received Office document, or having the recipient of one o...
by dkturner
Tue Mar 20, 2007 1:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any Apple Mac users out there?
Replies: 29
Views: 15679

Great Feedback!

Thanks to all of you for the excellent feedback. I certainly appreciate hearing both sides of the story. I realize that Macs are considerably more expensive than comperably configured Windows machines, but this isn't much of an issue for me. I'm not opposed to saving money, it's just that an extra $...
by dkturner
Tue Mar 20, 2007 9:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any Apple Mac users out there?
Replies: 29
Views: 15679

Any Apple Mac users out there?

I am in the market for a new laptop computer. I use Microsoft Office extensively and understand that Microsoft makes a Mac version of Office. I have always used a Windows operating system but have become disenchanted with many of the security issues of this system. I would appreciate any feedback co...
by dkturner
Sat Mar 17, 2007 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Exhibit A: Why high schools need a personal finance course
Replies: 33
Views: 14277

So who is going to teach these courses?

If you have ever looked at the 403(b) plans that teachers invest their money in you wouldn't make suggestions like this. Financial planning, like sex education, is best learned from non-academic "sources" (;-).