Search found 1344 matches

by dkturner
Mon Oct 13, 2008 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WOW! Largest DOW One-Day Gain (11%) Since 1933 !!!!
Replies: 25
Views: 6159

As per professor Shiller's website, equity markets were up about 54% in 1933.
by dkturner
Fri Oct 10, 2008 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will TIP yields look like if deflation occurs?
Replies: 7
Views: 2059

fishndoc, You are correct in your analysis of newly issued TIPS versus seasoned issues. This possibility may account for some of the weakness in the TIPS market, compared to the market for nominal Treasuries, over the last week. It might be advisable to consider swappings VIPSX for newly auctioned T...
by dkturner
Fri Oct 10, 2008 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard total bond fund etf down 7%
Replies: 6
Views: 1580

Check my edited post I've added data on ETFs tracking Treasury Notes.
by dkturner
Fri Oct 10, 2008 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard total bond fund etf down 7%
Replies: 6
Views: 1580

Looks like an asset pricing issue to me. AGG 87.58 -7.11 BND 68.07 -4.10 TIP 93.68 -3.60 SHY 84.05 +.22 IEI 109.27 -.17 IEF 87.88 -.84 Much greater discrepancy with the ETFs tracking Lehman Aggregate Bond Index than ETF tracking TIPS, which is much different than the three iShares ETFs tracking Trea...
by dkturner
Fri Oct 10, 2008 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard total bond fund etf down 7%
Replies: 6
Views: 1580

Same situation with the iShares version of BND (AGG). AGG is also down more than 6%. Might be issues questioning the REAL net asset value of the securities in the Lehman Aggregate Bond Index.
by dkturner
Thu Oct 09, 2008 4:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS
Replies: 105
Views: 20629

Ken, don't take this personally, but

Ken, Don't take this personally, but IF you are correct and CPI does understate actual inflation by a meaningful amount, EVERYBODY is also aware of this and it's already priced into the real TIPS yield. It doesn't matter if the boys at the BLS are cooking the books. If so, institutional investors wo...
by dkturner
Wed Oct 08, 2008 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate: Help me understand something
Replies: 44
Views: 5118

Sidney, Help me out here understanding your train of thought. The "trick'' of picking a retirement date is to pick one when future stock markets are likely to trend higher - not lower. Obviously we can't know this in advance. However, it would seem that a 4% initial withdrawal rate, calculated on a ...
by dkturner
Tue Oct 07, 2008 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It isn't me, is it?
Replies: 3
Views: 1150

Gaius,

Maybe you were witnessing the "last supper" for the middle class (;-))
by dkturner
Tue Oct 07, 2008 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS revisited - Again
Replies: 14
Views: 2356

TIPS revisited - Again

Interesting comparison of the current yield of TIPS versus nominal Treasuries. Here is the data, late in the afternoon of October 7. Maturity Nominal TIPS Spread 5 yr 2.44 1.70 .74 10 yr 3.48 2.33 1.15 20 yr 4.17 2.59 1.58 Is this an indication that the bond market is expecting inflation in the .75%...
by dkturner
Sun Oct 05, 2008 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: USAToday>>>Stock losses take heavy toll on retireme
Replies: 22
Views: 4253

Bob, Re: postponing collecting Social Security benefits. I have read a couple of articles in prior years (I believe Scott Burns may have an article or two on this subject) arguing that beginning Social Security benefits at age 62 actually costs the system LESS money, on average, than delaying benefi...
by dkturner
Sun Oct 05, 2008 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Index Investor the Greatest Fool?
Replies: 20
Views: 5599

If norak's quote is correct, actively managed mutual funds should be losing less money than index funds, right?

Here is an article, from the October 2 issue of the Wall Street Journal, with some statistics which shed light on the subject.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122288599439394873.html
by dkturner
Sun Oct 05, 2008 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roubini- The Risk of the Mother of All Bank Runs
Replies: 16
Views: 4047

Savers can play musical banks

It would seem that moving portions of large, uninsured, deposits to several banks simply spreads the money around - it isn't going to cause bank failures. What would you do if you, and your country club buddies (or senior citizens center buddies), are worried about a failure of your local bank? You ...
by dkturner
Sun Sep 28, 2008 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing for retirees
Replies: 2
Views: 1024

Rebalancing for retirees

Has anyone seriously considered the situation faced by retirees confronted with the need (or desire, if you wish) to rebalance a portfolio back to their desired risk level. Unlike investors in the their early/mid accumulation phase, retirees have much less leeway if equity markets pull a stunt like ...
by dkturner
Sun Aug 24, 2008 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How have Stocks been Working For You?
Replies: 108
Views: 17189

Question for wab

wab

If Lehman Brothers "future is uncertain" how is it possible that its "forward P/E is about 4"? Wouldn't it be more accurate to say its "forward P/E is unknown"?
by dkturner
Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "TIPS..Inflation Expectations at Lowest Level in 5 Year
Replies: 54
Views: 9905

ssctitic wrote: "So which is the better measure of inflationary expectations, the spread between TIPS and treasuries or a spread between TIPS and a risk adjusted rate for all long bonds?" The spread between nominal Treasuries and TIPS of the same maturity seems like an apples to apples comparison. B...
by dkturner
Fri Aug 08, 2008 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond Funds recent performance
Replies: 7
Views: 2081

Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond Funds recent performance

Am I missing something or is the Vanguard Group having problems with their tax-exempt bond funds? As of 7/31 here are the 1 year returns of three of their tax-exempt funds (all of which have average maturities very close to the average maturity of their benchmarks) and the 1 year returns of their be...
by dkturner
Fri Jun 06, 2008 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can I fund a Roth this year?
Replies: 14
Views: 2886

The "deferred compensation" referred to in IRS Publication 590 is compensation (usually a bonus) that employees specifically request their employer to defer to a later year. The purpose of excluding this deferred compensation from the definition of "compensation" in the year it is actually paid to t...
by dkturner
Wed Apr 02, 2008 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax's
Replies: 6
Views: 1771

DCA - The monthly variance in your take home pay is a matter you're going to have to live with - unless you can talk your boss into developing a compensation system with a monthly draw that will treat the year end true-up payment as a bonus payment There is a separate withholding table for bonus pay...
by dkturner
Sat Mar 08, 2008 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 1099-DIV turbo tax question
Replies: 4
Views: 2000

IRS regulations require mutual funds to aggregate dividend and short-term capital gains distributions for 1099 DIV reporting purposes. When the 1099 form says "total capital gains" it really means total LONG-term capital gains. If you check your math, you will see that Vanguard has lumped your short...
by dkturner
Thu Mar 06, 2008 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: IRA's in a Revocable Trust?
Replies: 12
Views: 4124

DDB, a question for you re ownership of an IRA.

Suppose X names an intervivos trust, either revocable or irrevocable, as the beneficiary of his IRA. X then ups and dies. Who, or what, "owns" X's IRA? Everything has got to be owned by somebody and X ain't around anymore.
by dkturner
Wed Mar 05, 2008 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: some of the money you're exchanging is uncollected
Replies: 4
Views: 3772

Vanguard warning message

Chosen - The message you received from Vanguard was simply a warning - it didn't prevent you from doing what you wanted to do at the time. Why did Vanguard send you this message? To alert you to the fact that you were investing with uncollected funds. Your purchase could be undone, with possible neg...
by dkturner
Thu Feb 28, 2008 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Settlement of Trades
Replies: 4
Views: 1214

Third business day settlement of equity trades is the standard in the retail brokerage industry. It's not a Vanguard thing. What is peculiar to Vanguard (and T. Rowe Price as well) is your inability to buy a Vanguard mutual fund with the proceeds of your equity sale on its settlement date. As you ha...
by dkturner
Sat Feb 23, 2008 4:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2008 IRS Tax Rebate Checks
Replies: 9
Views: 2593

"So it looks like those who actually paid the most in taxes will get NO rebate at all? Am I reading this correctly??? This doesn't seem very fair to me."

It doesn't have to be fair - it's the law. Unlike judges, senators and congressmen have never been held to the fairness standard.
by dkturner
Sat Feb 23, 2008 3:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: where is financial engines?
Replies: 9
Views: 2345

Bob - for some reason, which I don't understand, the Vanguard website behaves differently for different users. It doesn't matter which computer I use, it behaves differently for me than it does for my wife.
by dkturner
Sat Feb 23, 2008 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: where is financial engines?
Replies: 9
Views: 2345

Financial Engines website came up for me today at 3:30 p.m. EST when I followed the instructions in my prior post.
by dkturner
Sat Feb 23, 2008 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: where is financial engines?
Replies: 9
Views: 2345

Just type "Financial Engines" in the box at the upper right hand corner of the Vanguard web site. You will then see a list of relevant pages. Click on the first mention of Financial Engines and it will come up for you.
by dkturner
Sun Dec 16, 2007 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: USAA Subscriber's Saving's Accounts
Replies: 14
Views: 9697

Maybe the distribution is a % of account value?

My 2007 USAA Subscriber Savings Account distribution was 4.05% of my beginning of 2007 account value. What % of your 2007 account value was your distribution?
by dkturner
Wed Oct 24, 2007 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation for reserves
Replies: 1
Views: 857

Asset allocation for reserves

We have always maintained a "cash reserve" equal to 6-9 months of living expenses. In practice this has been invested in an intermediate-term tax-exempt bond fund and is used for buying cars (about every 4-5 years) or major house repairs/upgrades (maybe onee every 5 years). We also have a taxable po...
by dkturner
Wed Jun 06, 2007 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Medical savings account with Vanguard funds
Replies: 2
Views: 1232

Medical savings account with Vanguard funds

Is anyone aware of a medical savings account which offers Vanguard funds as investment options?
by dkturner
Tue May 22, 2007 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100% equity works if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 77
Views: 30113

Real dividends - 1929-1942

Darin - Here is the nominal S&P 500 dividend, and CPI data for the years 1929-1942: Year Div CPI 1929 .97 .2 1930 .98 (6.0) 1931 .82 (9.5) 1932 .50 (10.3) 1933 .44 .5 1934 .49 2.0 1935 .76 3.0 1936 1.02 1.2 1937 1.13 3.1 1938 .64 (2.8) 1939 .90 (.5) 1940 1.05 1.0 1941 1.16 9.7 1942 1.03 9.3
by dkturner
Tue May 22, 2007 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100% equity works if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 77
Views: 30113

Dividends and inflation 1966-1981

Darin inquired about real dividend growth for the years 1966 through 1981. I don't have the inflation adjusted numbers, but here is a do-it-yourself S&P 500 real dividend growth kit for the years in question: Year Div CPI 1966 2.87 3.3 1967 2.92 3.0 1968 3.07 4.7 1969 3.16 6.1 1970 3.14 5.5 1971 3.0...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 21, 2007 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ed Tower examines managed funds and Dan Wiener's portfolios
Replies: 26
Views: 11202

Timeframe was way too short

Mel, I agree. I posted a reply on the other forum pointing out not only that the timeframe was very short, but it covered a period where small-cap, mid-cap and international stocks consistently had superior performance. Adding any meaningful amount of any of these three asset classes to a fund that ...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 21, 2007 6:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any Apple Mac users out there?
Replies: 29
Views: 15647

Mac and MS Office

Cyber Bob inquired about my concerns with the compatability of Macs and Microsoft Office. I routinely exchange Word and Excel cocuments with other users, primarily other individuals or small businesses. My concern is not being able to open a received Office document, or having the recipient of one o...
by dkturner
Tue Mar 20, 2007 1:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any Apple Mac users out there?
Replies: 29
Views: 15647

Great Feedback!

Thanks to all of you for the excellent feedback. I certainly appreciate hearing both sides of the story. I realize that Macs are considerably more expensive than comperably configured Windows machines, but this isn't much of an issue for me. I'm not opposed to saving money, it's just that an extra $...
by dkturner
Tue Mar 20, 2007 9:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any Apple Mac users out there?
Replies: 29
Views: 15647

Any Apple Mac users out there?

I am in the market for a new laptop computer. I use Microsoft Office extensively and understand that Microsoft makes a Mac version of Office. I have always used a Windows operating system but have become disenchanted with many of the security issues of this system. I would appreciate any feedback co...
by dkturner
Sat Mar 17, 2007 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Exhibit A: Why high schools need a personal finance course
Replies: 33
Views: 14252

So who is going to teach these courses?

If you have ever looked at the 403(b) plans that teachers invest their money in you wouldn't make suggestions like this. Financial planning, like sex education, is best learned from non-academic "sources" (;-).
by dkturner
Sat Mar 17, 2007 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "Intelligent Asset Allocator" for investing newbie
Replies: 13
Views: 5759

Intelligent Asset Allocator is a tough read

Dr. Bernstein's first book is a tough read, even for people with a technical or scientific background, unless they have a fairly well rounded financial background as well. I would recommend you start with his Four Pillars first, then move on to IAA. Part of the problem is getting the reader to buy i...
by dkturner
Sat Mar 17, 2007 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Municipal Bonds: Do they act more like Treasury or Corp?
Replies: 8
Views: 3495

Vanguard website

On the Vanguard web site click on the "Research Funds & Stock" tab. Enter the first word of a fund ("intermediate" for example). Click on the exact fund you are researching (example: "Intermediate-Term Investment Grade"). Click on the "Performance" tab on the page for that fund. CAREFULLY scroll dow...
by dkturner
Sat Mar 17, 2007 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Municipal Bonds: Do they act more like Treasury or Corp?
Replies: 8
Views: 3495

Data source

Found the data on the Vanguard web site and used Excel function CORREL for the calculations. If you look up a vanguard fund (example I-T Investment Grade Bond), on the "Performance" tab it will show the performance for the fund - year by year for last 15 years - and the performance of its benchmark ...
by dkturner
Sat Mar 17, 2007 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Municipal Bonds: Do they act more like Treasury or Corp?
Replies: 8
Views: 3495

Bond correlations

I'm not sure this is exactly what you are looking for, but municipal bonds (7year) fall between corporate bonds (5-10 year) and treasury notes (5-10 year) in their correlation with the S&P 500. I could only find data on the Lehman Brothers 5-10 Credit index going back to 1994, so the following corre...
by dkturner
Fri Mar 16, 2007 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Measuring The True Cost of Vanguard Active Funds
Replies: 11
Views: 4892

Doc, Miller's response probably would be.....

.....something to the effect that all of those managers were exhibiting skill - they just didn't exhibit enough to overcome that 7% headwind (;-).
by dkturner
Tue Mar 13, 2007 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Equity-heavy in retirement - Why not???
Replies: 61
Views: 24305

Perspective is important in this debate

It is not unusual to encounter individuals who have ample income, from dividends, pensions and Social Security payments. For individuals who can reasonably anticipate living comfortably on their current income, and who have large imbedded capital gains, there may be no particular reason to change th...
by dkturner
Tue Mar 13, 2007 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Managed Timber
Replies: 3
Views: 2512

Tax treatment of managed timber REITs

Virtually all of the net income from the timber REITs, PCL and RYN, is categorized as long-term capital gains, which is subject to tax (currently) at a maximum rate of 15%. Non timber REITs, on the other hand, primarily produce ordinary income which is NOT treated as qualified dividend income and is...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 07, 2007 7:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Bogle Sees Tough Times Ahead
Replies: 15
Views: 6929

How about that 50% emerging markets recommendation?

Jack Bogle has long suggested that, although investors don't NEED any international exposure, it might be appropriate to invest up to 20% of one's equity portfolio in international stocks. Clemens' article really doesn't represent anything new in this regard. What I found fascinating was Jack's reco...