Search found 72 matches

by walkinwood
Thu Apr 30, 2009 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4 1/2 years to recover from 1929 crash
Replies: 3
Views: 1005

4 1/2 years to recover from 1929 crash

I think there is merit to this argument since I tend to look at my future portfolio value in inflation adjusted terms. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/26/your-money/stocks-and-bonds/26stra.html Does anyone have data to show how long it took to recover from the 1970s market using the same parameters? ...
by walkinwood
Thu Apr 02, 2009 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Roger's interview
Replies: 27
Views: 5015

GLet capitalism work - let poorly run companies fail so capital can move to the successful ones instead of being wasted propping up the failures. Kindleberger, in Manias, Panics, and Crashes, came to the (cautious and hedged) conclusion that in those financial crises where the government stepped as...
by walkinwood
Thu Apr 02, 2009 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ability to forecast (re Ilan's post)
Replies: 7
Views: 1576

I'm no fan of technical analysis, but always felt that the test mentioned above is flawed. The real test should be to show technical analysts real charts of real stocks, get their predictions, compare to what actually happens, and then draw conclusions. Stock charts are not random, so I don't see w...
by walkinwood
Mon Mar 30, 2009 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Roger's interview
Replies: 27
Views: 5015

Great interview. Thanks for posting. It seems a number of economists are saying the same thing. Let capitalism work - let poorly run companies fail so capital can move to the successful ones instead of being wasted propping up the failures. Stop borrowing. Stop consuming. Start making stuff. Start s...
by walkinwood
Mon Mar 30, 2009 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ability to forecast (re Ilan's post)
Replies: 7
Views: 1576

I'm no fan of technical analysis, but always felt that the test mentioned above is flawed. The real test should be to show technical analysts real charts of real stocks, get their predictions, compare to what actually happens, and then draw conclusions. Stock charts are not random, so I don't see wh...
by walkinwood
Mon Dec 15, 2008 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ex-Dividend date
Replies: 7
Views: 2794

Ex-Dividend date

I would like to verify my understanding of an ex-dividend date as it applies to Mutual funds If a fund says Record Date: December 18, 2008 Ex Date: December 19, 2008 Payable Date:December 19, 2008 I assume it means that if I buy shares of the fund on Dec 19th, I will not receive the dividend. Please...
by walkinwood
Mon Dec 15, 2008 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pop Psychology by Virginia Postrel
Replies: 7
Views: 2579

Thanks for posting. Check out her other articles for the Atlantic.
by walkinwood
Wed Dec 03, 2008 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Milevsky - The "buckets" myth of retirement invest
Replies: 88
Views: 16614

As Bobby says, it is simply a way of implementing the standard asset allocation strategy. I respectfully disagree. Ray Lucia suggests that you defer withdrawals from bucket 3 (equities) when it is not growing. Take the case where equities are stable - 0% return. Taking money from your buckets 1 or ...
by walkinwood
Sat Nov 29, 2008 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To late to TLH (near end of year)?
Replies: 22
Views: 4674

eurowizard wrote:Find out which day they do the distribution. Sell your stuff the day before. TLH back in the day after. You lose one day of market exposure for a definite tax savings. If you're worried then buy an ETF with the cash for one day
Be aware of the wash sale rules.
by walkinwood
Sat Nov 29, 2008 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does this all turn around?
Replies: 23
Views: 4391

I am sure that this economic setback will be balanced within a few years. I really don't believe it is going to happen over night. It has taken years to get to this point so it will take a few to get it back on track. Hopefully, with our new leadership elect, things will change with his new cabinet...
by walkinwood
Sat Nov 29, 2008 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does this all turn around?
Replies: 23
Views: 4391

How does this all turn around?

I have been trying to walk through the scenarios that would lead to a turn-around in the US economy, and can't seem to get there. I hear people saying that the expected government spending on infrastructure, along with the stabilization of the housing market (changing mortgage terms to stall foreclo...
by walkinwood
Tue Nov 25, 2008 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealth Track Interview with Jeremy Grantham on 11.21.08
Replies: 51
Views: 10849

Michael B - Thanks for the confirmation of my understanding.

I also found this document in the GMO library which explains their methodology to reach the asset forecasts. Needs registration, I think.
GMO 7-Year Asset Class Forecasts
by walkinwood
Mon Nov 24, 2008 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealth Track Interview with Jeremy Grantham on 11.21.08
Replies: 51
Views: 10849

Can someone help me understand the GMO asset class return forecast specifically, are my assumptions below true? a) By value-add, I assume they mean the incremental return over the index that active management by GMO can provide. b) By Estimated Range of 7-year annual returns, is the amount that the ...
by walkinwood
Wed Nov 12, 2008 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US May Lose Its 'AAA' Rating
Replies: 14
Views: 2696

Watch the cnbc segment that the Original poster referenced here:

http://www.myprops.org/content/Martin-H ... -11102008/

and, the other guests had similar reaction to this forum. "scare mongering" is what one guest called it
by walkinwood
Tue Nov 11, 2008 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Impact of buying a TIPS Fund at today's NAV and real yield
Replies: 11
Views: 3384

Re: Impact of buying a TIPS Fund at today's NAV and real yie

Thanks all for your input. If you don't understand how the underlying securities work, then how could you possibly understand how a fund which buys said securities works? DDB, I did not make my point well in my post. While I understand how TIPS work, I don't quite understand how to use the inflation...
by walkinwood
Tue Nov 11, 2008 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Impact of buying a TIPS Fund at today's NAV and real yield
Replies: 11
Views: 3384

Impact of buying a TIPS Fund at today's NAV and real yield

Buying TIPS directly is still too complicated for me. I don't yet understand the ins & outs and, in general, I do not invest in things I do not fully understand. But given the outstanding value of TIPS, I want to invest in the Vanguard Inflation Protected fund. I think I'll continue to reap this sup...
by walkinwood
Thu Oct 09, 2008 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Loss selling in Emerging Market Stocks
Replies: 0
Views: 708

Tax Loss selling in Emerging Market Stocks

I have VWO which has fallen a LOT since I've bought it.

I want to harvest tax losses, but do not wish to exit the emerging market.

Is there an fund/ETF which is not "substantially identical" that you would recommend?

Thank you.
by walkinwood
Sun May 18, 2008 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYTimes on passion and indexing
Replies: 5
Views: 2411

The "fundamental indexes" imho are an active management strategy.

If it was so simple to beat the market, how come it is almost impossible to pick market beating managers before the fact?

Yet another wall street gimmick to charge extra fees.
by walkinwood
Mon Mar 24, 2008 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation and location
Replies: 8
Views: 2588

because of the complexities that pipewarrior points out, I treat all assets at 100% of value irrespective of location.
by walkinwood
Thu Mar 20, 2008 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share Your Withdrawal Strategy
Replies: 28
Views: 6634

I plan to start ER in a few months and am in my late 40s. We do not have retirement health care or pension. I hope my plan provides your some value, but am also very open to input / advice. For asset re-balancing, I plan to use the scheme discussed in the article "Opportunistic Rebalancing..." in th...
by walkinwood
Wed Mar 19, 2008 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing When Retired: A Psychological Trick
Replies: 19
Views: 3735

The Nikkei did not go down in a straight line. There are periods since 1990 where it doubled from its lows, so rebalancing regularly may have fared better than you imagine.

I haven't seen any formal studies on it though.
by walkinwood
Tue Jan 22, 2008 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: % of S&P 500 owned by Index funds/ETFs?
Replies: 0
Views: 762

% of S&P 500 owned by Index funds/ETFs?

I've tried to find out what percentage of the market value of the S&P500 is owned by S&P500 index funds/ETFs, but can't seem to find that number anywhere. I was wondering if a large presence of index funds increases or decreases volatility in the underlying market. My feeling is that it may increase...