Search found 119 matches

by Kevin K
Wed Jun 15, 2016 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60:40 is dead: Charles Sizemore
Replies: 51
Views: 12040

60:40 is dead: Charles Sizemore

I looked for discussion of this article here and didn't see anything; my apologies if I missed it. The author has a piece in Forbes that's getting a lot of media play, but this longer version on his own site is more detailed: http://charlessizemore.com/60-40-is-dead/ Obviously the comments about equ...
by Kevin K
Tue Aug 25, 2015 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Greaney reviews Vanguard Personal Advisor Services
Replies: 14
Views: 3873

John Greaney reviews Vanguard Personal Advisor Services

For those who may not be familiar with his writing, John Greaney was one of the earliest to offer a scam-free, intelligent place on the web for folks interested in early retirement and investing. He's every bit as irreverent as the better-known Mr. Money Mustache, sharp as a tack with numbers (and w...
by Kevin K
Tue Aug 25, 2015 8:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Target Retirement Income Fund vs. 3 Fund Portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 1606

Re: Target Retirement Income Fund vs. 3 Fund Portfolio

Thanks very much for the wise advice everyone. Much appreciated.
by Kevin K
Mon Aug 24, 2015 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Target Retirement Income Fund vs. 3 Fund Portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 1606

Re: Target Retirement Income Fund vs. 3 Fund Portfolio

Sorry, I should have been clearer in my original post! My mother in law's account is 90% in cash at this point, with only a few stocks remaining. I/we liquidated all her mutual funds a couple of weeks ago (they were all high actively-managed funds selected by her Edward Jones advisor). My thinking a...
by Kevin K
Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Target Retirement Income Fund vs. 3 Fund Portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 1606

Target Retirement Income Fund vs. 3 Fund Portfolio

A few weeks ago my mother-in-law asked for my help in getting extricated from Edward Jones, which had been making quite a nice living off of her for over a decade. The good news is I got her to liquidate all of her mutual fund positions two weeks ago - the bad is she still has a smattering of indivi...
by Kevin K
Fri Aug 14, 2015 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard Funds vs. Dimensional Funds in New IFA Index Portfolios" -- What's The Deal?
Replies: 56
Views: 10244

Re: "Vanguard Funds vs. Dimensional Funds in New IFA Index Portfolios" -- What's The Deal?

My apologies to the OP for taking awhile to reply to your question to me about Evanson and Associates. I did have 100% of my portfolio with them for about 5 years and don't regret the experience a bit. I think that for many their market insights and hand-holding during times of crisis could be worth...
by Kevin K
Sun Aug 09, 2015 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard Funds vs. Dimensional Funds in New IFA Index Portfolios" -- What's The Deal?
Replies: 56
Views: 10244

Re: "Vanguard Funds vs. Dimensional Funds in New IFA Index Portfolios" -- What's The Deal?

One of the best (and lowest-cost) advisory firms that uses DFA funds is Evanson Asset Management, and Steven Evanson has a worthwhile discussion of exactly how the DFA funds differ from index funds and ETFs on their web site: http://www.evansonasset.com/index.cfm?Page=20 It seems to me that if you'r...
by Kevin K
Fri Jul 17, 2015 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau on Asset Allocation Using PE10
Replies: 84
Views: 11567

Wade Pfau on high CAPE ratios

[Thread merged into here, link formatting fixed, see below. --admin LadyGeek] Wade's posts seem to usually inspire good discussion here, and I'm curious to hear what people think about his two latest ones on adjusting equity:fixed allocations in accordance with CAPE ratios. The formula he uses woul...
by Kevin K
Sat Jul 04, 2015 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman on Market Timing
Replies: 87
Views: 17589

Paul Merriman on Market Timing

I don't know what to make of this since there are no specifics about the strategy employed, but thought it might be worth posting since Merriman's writing over the years has been helpful to many of us. He does say in the comments section that he only recommends this strategy for folks over 60. http:...
by Kevin K
Mon Jun 15, 2015 10:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio for a conservative early retiree
Replies: 12
Views: 2541

Re: Portfolio for a conservative early retiree

Thank you all very much. You've given me excellent advice across the board and much to think about. I'll look into a CD ladder and will give serious thought to increasing the equity allocation. I also very much appreciate the reminder to keep things as simple as possible. The REIT allocation was ins...
by Kevin K
Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio for a conservative early retiree
Replies: 12
Views: 2541

Portfolio for a conservative early retiree

I've spent countless hours on this forum and am extremely grateful for what I've learned here - as well as more-than-a-little intimidated by level of expertise typically on display. I've wasted consderable time and money over the past decade trying to assemble a portfolio that would achieve the earl...
by Kevin K
Sat Jun 06, 2015 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 755
Views: 376631

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

Thank you both very much!
by Kevin K
Fri Jun 05, 2015 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 755
Views: 376631

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

This is truly an epic thread. Thanks to all who've contributed and I won't even pretend that I fully understand some of the subtleties involved. My question is this (and I hope it's the appropriate place for it): given all of the recent changes in the composition of Vanguard's international funds wh...
by Kevin K
Sat May 30, 2015 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reducing the Black Swans
Replies: 69
Views: 10914

Re: Reducing the Black Swans

Getting back to the op's question, I stumbled on this quite detailed paper on selecting ETFs to effectively mimic the sorts of DFA funds specified in the Larry portfolio:

http://www.etf.com/publications/journal ... nopaging=1
by Kevin K
Fri May 29, 2015 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reducing the Black Swans
Replies: 69
Views: 10914

Re: Reducing the Black Swans

Following up on Lack_ey and Clive's comments, this issue of not being able to invest in gold until the mid-70's is put into what seems to me to be useful perspective on this post on the Permanent Portfolio forum: http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/permanent-portfolio-discussion/306010-beats-hbpp/m...
by Kevin K
Thu Nov 13, 2014 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog: Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 79
Views: 21631

Re: Blog: Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio

Thanks all of you for your thoughts here, and I want to apologize for getting my numbers on historical returns wrong! Several posters have echoed William Bernstein's comment about gold not being legal to own until 1975, but it seems to me there's an quality of singling out gold for special (mis)trea...
by Kevin K
Sat Nov 01, 2014 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog: Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 79
Views: 21631

Re: Blog: Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio

"What are you using for gold asset prices? My YTD on GLD is +0.08% which is behind all of my other investments." The -.08% return you quote is for GLD rather than actual gold, but I did make a mistake here as the numbers I originally cited were from 7/14 and gold has taken a considerable beating sin...
by Kevin K
Sat Nov 01, 2014 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog: Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 79
Views: 21631

Re: Blog: Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio

"Considering the S&P 500 actually gained 138% over the past 13 years, while total bond market only gained 84%, along with the fact that the buy-and-hold crowd never claimed that 13 years of stock underperformance was impossible anyway, perhaps it is a different crowd which ought to begin to investig...
by Kevin K
Sat Nov 01, 2014 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog: Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 79
Views: 21631

Re: Blog: Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio

I'm anything but a gold bug you guys, but considering gold's performance (cited above) as well as the robust performance of the Permanent Portfolio (beating the S&P 500 since 1972 with far less volatility and infinitely lower drawdowns during stock market crashes) I think Bogle and Buffett have long...
by Kevin K
Sat Nov 01, 2014 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog: Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 79
Views: 21631

Re: Blog: Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio

I don't disagree with your conclusions Browser, which echo what Mr. Bernstein has to say about the PP in his most recent essay. That doesn't mean there's no place for gold, IMHO - it just means 25% is far too much. FWIW, here's a recent set of return numbers that underline gold's value: RETURNS: JAN...
by Kevin K
Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog: Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 79
Views: 21631

Re: Blog: Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio

This comment by Desert didn't receive much in the way of follow-up, but when I ran the numbers on his suggested portfolio I was most impressed. 8.80% CAGR (1972 to the present), 6.44% SD AND better performance than the PP during market crises (e.g. positive return in 2008, worst-ever loss 4.45% in 1...
by Kevin K
Thu Jan 27, 2011 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 736
Views: 172728

Having switched to the PP a couple of years ago from a sophisticated DFA slice-and-dice (that despite having less than 40% equities lost 23% on paper during the '08 meltdown) I would just point out that the sales pitch for all of the the non-PP approaches you mention are all based entirely on backte...
by Kevin K
Tue May 04, 2010 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1395971

A cautionary note about PHYS (especially re: tax treatment) here:

http://www.indexuniverse.com/sections/b ... -deal.html
by Kevin K
Mon Apr 12, 2010 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1395971

Amen, MT. I've been reading some of these worry-wart posts (I do find it contagious, I must admit) and for me what it comes down to is this: the PP is about the most robust all-weather approach out there. Put money you can't afford to lose in it, and if you STILL don't sleep well, put your energy in...
by Kevin K
Thu Apr 08, 2010 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1395971

Since I brought this up Dan I've had very helpful feedback from a bunch of people here. I fell into the trap of looking at the low yields on T-bills (and MM accounts composed of them) in isolation and as has been repeatedly stated by many here that just isn't how one looks at the integrated system t...
by Kevin K
Wed Apr 07, 2010 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1395971

Thanks for the reminder MT. I guess I dismissed savings bonds because it's yet another account to open (Treasury Direct) and the amounts you can buy are so small, but there's no arguing with their virtues as you've so clearly stated them. Clearly they're part of the solution; thanks.
by Kevin K
Wed Apr 07, 2010 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1395971

And Craig's point about style drifting applies even to VFISX (ST Treasuries). While far more stable, and almost always holding pure Treasuries, they have held as much as 16% TIPS in the last few years. I worry less about VFISX but still. Another reason to consider the original design. Interesting, ...
by Kevin K
Wed Apr 07, 2010 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1395971

That's brilliant, MT (even for you, and you've certainly set the bar high on this thread) - and yes, my answer to each scenario was definitely the PP, even though I'm only a year into having all of my assets invested in it. Thank you, once again.
by Kevin K
Tue Apr 06, 2010 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1395971

Thanks MT for this. SHV looks to me like a better bet (better being a very relative term here) than VFISX only in that +.20% return on your cash beats -.80% (with a real danger of a ~2% short term loss if rates spike), but given that you can get 1.30% in a savings account at Discovery Bank or Americ...
by Kevin K
Fri Apr 02, 2010 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1395971

Going back to Lbill's comments on the likely fate of short duration treasuries, I have a practical question. It's bad enough that money market accounts are paying essentially nothing, but HB says only use treasury MM accounts, which remain closed. As a result, I and I suspect others have the entire ...
by Kevin K
Thu Mar 18, 2010 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1395971

Oops! You are so right - sorry!
by Kevin K
Wed Mar 17, 2010 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1395971

Our reply to Wonk's poll question: We're using the PP in our current state of early semi-retirement and hope to continue to do so. A year in we are still recent refugees from much more complicated slice-and-dice portfolios. The Roy Rodgers quote sums up our reasons for the change: "I'm more concerne...
by Kevin K
Tue Mar 16, 2010 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1395971

I think you must have meant Vanguard Total Bond Index as it looks like VT is all he thinks you need for stocks. On the other hand, he also recommends very high equity allocations across the board, even for 70 year olds. About as far from the PP approach as one can get: http://www.kiplinger.com/colum...
by Kevin K
Tue Mar 16, 2010 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1395971

Hi Maestro,

Okay you've got me curious but what is VNB (assume it is a mutual fund or ETF but don't find it anywhere).
by Kevin K
Tue Mar 16, 2010 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1395971

Thanks MT. Very clear and helpful as usual, and much appreciated.
by Kevin K
Tue Mar 16, 2010 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1395971

I'm not looking to revisit the pointed discussion of tilted and sliced vs. TSM for the equity allocation within the PP back on p.19 of this thread, but I am curious about what seasoned holders of the portfolio are doing with that allocation. If I recall correctly Craig R and others say maybe 20% of ...
by Kevin K
Sun Mar 14, 2010 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1395971

For what it's worth, I decided to split the gold holding, with half in GTU and the other at Bullionvault. I think it would be ideal to split the gold three ways and hold some within actual physical reach, but that wasn't an option for us due to living overseas and traveling a great deal.
by Kevin K
Wed Mar 10, 2010 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: slice and dice or single fund advice
Replies: 5
Views: 1415

Mea culpa Mr. Larimore and I'm mortified at my error, especially because it turns out it was Trev H whose model I adopted and I know you have very different views - and are on top of that a legendary and revered figure on this board. I sincerely apologize.
by Kevin K
Wed Mar 10, 2010 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: slice and dice or single fund advice
Replies: 5
Views: 1415

slice and dice or single fund advice

I currently have a slice-and-dice equity allocation based on that recommended by Taylor Lattimore (sp?): 20% each VFINX, VSS, VRRIX, VISVX 10% VGRSX No complaints about the allocation in theory - it seems to cover the world across sectors and market caps quite well, but then there is the matter of h...
by Kevin K
Sun Mar 07, 2010 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1395971

Thanks Lbill for running these numbers. I like the idea of owning only intermediate Treasuries for at least two reasons: simpler and lower-cost to manage, and one avoids the large losses the long bonds are subject to when interest rates spike. I transitioned to the PP last year when all the Treasury...
by Kevin K
Thu Dec 10, 2009 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1395971

Thanks everyone for sharing your real-world experiences with owning the PP. Roy as usual I find myself nodding my head most strongly with your comments because I'm also far more concerned about loss than I am about missing out on a bull market run. Your comment about Swedroe and clients resonates st...
by Kevin K
Wed Dec 09, 2009 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1395971

Thanks Roy. I did some playing around on riskcog and of course you're correct. This week's flight from commodities and equities has looked like a small-scale confirmation of Lbill's recent warnings about the possibility of every asset in the PP except cash taking a major hit. I guess if this thread ...
by Kevin K
Tue Dec 08, 2009 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1395971

is this another conservative option?

This question is directed especially at Roy (whose posts resonate especially strongly for me) and macclary: I often see elsewhere on Bogleheads a 50:50 mix of VTINX Vanguard Retirement Income and VWINX Wellesley recommended for conservative investors. I wonder if this mix deserves mention alongside ...
by Kevin K
Thu Dec 03, 2009 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1395971

All good advice. The other thing that comes to mind for the risk-averse is that for a lot of people, simply having a good-sized chunk of one's assets tied up in illiquid assets provides a degree of peace of mind that no investment in capital markets can. That might mean owning rental properties, inv...
by Kevin K
Mon Nov 16, 2009 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1395971

CEF is silver and gold; GTU is a gold-only fund run by the same people. After much research I chose to divide my gold allocation between GTU and Bullionvault.com (Goldmoney is worth a look as well). Not saying these are the best options for everyone, just what works for me. If you haven't already do...
by Kevin K
Tue Nov 10, 2009 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1395971

Great article Lbill; thanks for posting (I love the Keynes quotes!). And thanks to you, Roy and MT for your helpful responses to my question. I do find the GNMA performance impressive, and I strongly relate to Roy's comments about a Swedroe-style 70% medium-term Treasury, 30% value-tilted equity mix...
by Kevin K
Mon Nov 09, 2009 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1395971

Practical question on transition to PP

I've been transitioning to the PP for most of the year. Since Treasury MM funds are closed I figured I ought to put 30% in the short term bond funds that are available to me and reduce the LT Treasuries to 20%. I worked up the courage to buy a long bond at today's low rates, and even got the gold al...
by Kevin K
Mon Nov 09, 2009 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1395971

This guy is treating PRPFX as the Permanent Portfolio (see his chart link), and it isn't. I don't see a single useful argument against the actual PP here.
by Kevin K
Fri Nov 06, 2009 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1395971

Thanks MCSquared and Maclary. I've yet to see anyone on this thread, which I've carefully followed from the beginning, who remotely qualifies as a gold bug. bog you might start your education about the PP by reading the superb recent post by Craig R. on gold in the PP: http://crawlingroad.com/blog/2...
by Kevin K
Thu Oct 22, 2009 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1395971

Thanks, MT, for your very direct and clear "rant" about TIPS. Why would one trust the same entity that does everything it can to understate the actual rate of inflation to keep our income sufficient to deal with it in times of need?