Search found 334 matches

by jmk
Thu Apr 04, 2013 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation & Vanguard Funds
Replies: 8
Views: 1617

Re: Inflation & Vanguard Funds

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by jmk
Thu Apr 04, 2013 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation & Vanguard Funds
Replies: 8
Views: 1617

Re: Inflation & Vanguard Funds

Surprising: 1) TIPs are not correlated with cpu-u! WTF? This makes we wonder if the "synthetic TIPs" in Simba's database is way off in its formulation and assumptions, frankly. There was a previous thread on this. Why are TIPS not correlated with inflation? That is because TIPS prices vary with the...
by jmk
Thu Apr 04, 2013 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation & Vanguard Funds
Replies: 8
Views: 1617

Inflation & Vanguard Funds

For fun I ran the correlations with inflation 1972-2012 of all the vanguard funds in the simba backtesting spreadsheet. The four least correlated funds with cpu-u are in red, and the four most correlated funds are in green: http://i.imgur.com/F4tx7zU.jpg Not surprising: 1) LTTreasury bonds are least...
by jmk
Fri Mar 29, 2013 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1970-80s "total bond mrk" idx returns?
Replies: 0
Views: 401

1970-80s "total bond mrk" idx returns?

Looking into the 1976-1986 data for the Total Bond Fund, I was curious at the discrepancy between the Lehman Aggregate Bond Index values cited by Taylor in http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=1650640#p1650640 and the entries in Simba's spreadsheet for same. (See below.) One of them is w...
by jmk
Fri Mar 29, 2013 8:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best/Favorite ipad Apps
Replies: 34
Views: 4995

Re: Best/Favorite ipad Apps

Dropbox
Evernote

Both of these allow easy transfer between ipad and various machines.
I use Evernote to record "universal" bookmarks too.
by jmk
Fri Mar 29, 2013 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1115
Views: 617579

Total Bond data wrong? (Spreadsheet for backtesting)

Looking into the 1976-1986 data for the Total Bond Fund, I was curious at the discrepancy between the Lehman Aggregate Bond Index values cited by Taylor in http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=1650640#p1650640 and the entries in Simba's spreadsheet for same. (See below.) One of them is wr...
by jmk
Thu Mar 28, 2013 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard yearly return data < 2003?
Replies: 1
Views: 316

Vanguard yearly return data < 2003?

Can anyone refer me to yearly fund returns for years prior to 2003?

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/FundsB ... TB=yrlyTBI
by jmk
Mon Mar 25, 2013 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1115
Views: 617579

Fund Data Correction (Spreadsheet for backtesting)

1) I believe the returns on VFSVX are incorrect for the last couple years. Looking at Vanguard site I see: Returns 2010= 24.97, 2011= -19.09, 2012= 18.90. 2) I'm wondering how the CPI-U is calculated. When I get data at the FRED site for CPI-U: CPI urban = (231.198 - 227.605) / 227.605) = 1.57%? Thi...
by jmk
Sat Mar 23, 2013 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Understanding Swedroe's Minimizing Fat Tails Portfolio
Replies: 49
Views: 8250

Re: Help Understanding Swedroe's Minimizing Fat Tails Portfo

larryswedroe wrote:I have backtested the strategy to 1970 and it has held up remarkably well in all environments
Larry, in your back testing what did you use for "synthetic tips" before 1999?
by jmk
Fri Mar 22, 2013 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to find assets which are least correlated?
Replies: 16
Views: 3842

Re: How to find assets which are least correlated?

You could sum the bivariate correlation coefficients of each pair, and divide by the number of pairs. But I don't think that is a very useful thing to do. What you care about is not some abstract mathematical concept, but the return and volatility of alternative portfolios. So why not calculate tha...
by jmk
Fri Mar 22, 2013 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aren't V & S a less efficient way to increase risk?
Replies: 10
Views: 1474

Re: Aren't V & S a less efficient way to increase risk?

One comment about correlations, when Larry compares Value to Market, or Small to Value, he isn't giving you data on the indexes (say DFA US LV to Vanguard TSM), he is showing you the correlations of the "value premium" to the "stock premium", which are defined as "value stock index return minus gro...
by jmk
Thu Mar 21, 2013 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to find assets which are least correlated?
Replies: 16
Views: 3842

How to find assets which are least correlated?

If you have the returns of three (or four or five...) assets 1972-2012 and are trying to put a number on their collective correlation with each other, taken as a whole, how would you do that in excel? The ultimate aim is to find combinations of 3 or 4 which are least correlated collectively. (Would ...
by jmk
Tue Mar 19, 2013 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: From whence value premium?
Replies: 11
Views: 1117

Re: From whence value premium?

Sorry to be a grammar nerd, but "whence" has the 'from' part built into it. :-) Um... while you are technically correct in the strict sense, the issue is not so clear, Linefort: And even a brief look at historical sources shows that from whence has been common since the thirteenth century. It has b...
by jmk
Tue Mar 19, 2013 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: From whence value premium?
Replies: 11
Views: 1117

From whence value premium?

"Fama and French hypothesized that while small-cap and value stocks have higher beta (they have more equity-type risk), they also have additional risk unrelated to beta." I understand mathematically how factor analysis can identify parts which contribute in different amounts to an effect. And I unde...
by jmk
Mon Mar 18, 2013 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why target date funds add TIPS only at retirement?
Replies: 36
Views: 4423

Re: Why target date funds add TIPS only at retirement?

If Vanguard feels TIPS are appropriate for Target Retirement Income why are they not included in Life Strategy Income? Both families are aimed at diferent purposes. Retirement income assumes you're seven years in retirement without a job. LifeStrategy income just assumes you want income or a safer ...
by jmk
Sun Mar 17, 2013 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why target date funds add TIPS only at retirement?
Replies: 36
Views: 4423

Re: Why target date funds add TIPS only at retirement?

This is purely speculation, but I wouldn't be surprised if Vanguard uses TBM just because they want to hedge their bets on investments strategies. Perhaps the argument can be made for 100% TIPS. But how would people in the target retirement funds have felt in 2008, when Vanguard's TIPS fund lost 12...
by jmk
Sun Mar 17, 2013 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why target date funds add TIPS only at retirement?
Replies: 36
Views: 4423

Re: Why target date funds add TIPS only at retirement?

I don't quite understand why I, or anyone else, isn't 100% TIPS in fixed income. Because TIPs expected returns are less than similar nominal bonds since there's no free lunch. So, other things being equal, if one can ride out the inflation-deflation cycles you're better off not paying the premium f...
by jmk
Sun Mar 17, 2013 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why target date funds add TIPS only at retirement?
Replies: 36
Views: 4423

Re: Why target date funds add TIPS only at retirement?

s: Vanguard's approach to target-date funds While the risk of inflation is prevalent throughout an investor’s life cycle, it’s primarily in the later stages that investors must focus on investment tools to provide some protection. This is because for investors in the accumulation stage, inflation p...
by jmk
Sun Mar 17, 2013 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why target date funds add TIPS only at retirement?
Replies: 36
Views: 4423

Why target date funds add TIPS only at retirement?

The Vanguard Target Retirement fund glide path only starts adding TIPS into the mix close to the date of retirement, with a max of 20% of bonds 7 years in. The bond portion is all tbm bond before that. Has Vanguard stated their reasoning? Do you agree? If it makes sense to hedge inflation then, why ...
by jmk
Sat Mar 16, 2013 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry's nice summary of "expected" return.
Replies: 31
Views: 4649

Larry's nice summary of "expected" return.

I thought this short article from BAM's website was a wonderful reminder about the true nature of risk that is easy to forget once you get into the number crunching. Sometimes Larry's shorthand is hard to follow, but the writing here is articulate yet profound in the best Bogle tradition: http://www...
by jmk
Fri Mar 15, 2013 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VGTSX/VTIAX regions fixed?
Replies: 1
Views: 353

VGTSX/VTIAX regions fixed?

Vanguard Total International tracks the MSCI All Country World ex USA Investable Market Index. Does this index have a fixed setting for Europe, Pacific, Emerging or do the ratios change over time?
thanks
by jmk
Wed Mar 13, 2013 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Real Estate fee reduction?
Replies: 16
Views: 1892

Re: TIAA Real Estate fee reduction?

TIAA Real Estate really isn't the same as a REIT:
this morningstar graph
by jmk
Wed Mar 13, 2013 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: spreadsheet of asset returns 1926 to present?
Replies: 9
Views: 2302

spreadsheet of asset returns 1926 to present?

I know on this site is a wonderful spreadsheet by Simba of Vanguard returns from 1972 to 2011.
I used to have a similar spreadsheet going back to 1926 or maybe even 1871 for various broad asset class returns.
Can anyone point me to this?
by jmk
Tue Mar 12, 2013 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aren't V & S a less efficient way to increase risk?
Replies: 10
Views: 1474

Re: Aren't v & s a less efficient way to increase risk?

They are IMO clearly unique risks, whatever you think about the risk vs. behavioral story. That is demonstrated simply by looking at the annual correlations Beta to size has been about 0.4, size to value about 0. and Value to Beta about 0.1 Those numbers change everything. I didn't realize the corr...
by jmk
Mon Mar 11, 2013 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aren't V & S a less efficient way to increase risk?
Replies: 10
Views: 1474

Re: Aren't v & s a less efficient way to increase risk?

Thank you and that is helpful. I don't personally think it's intuitive that distressed or small companies have unique risk beyond just more of the good old equity risk. Of course I'm not qualified to take on Fama and French. But Bogle seems to agree with me. I compare this so-called value/small risk...
by jmk
Mon Mar 11, 2013 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aren't V & S a less efficient way to increase risk?
Replies: 10
Views: 1474

Aren't V & S a less efficient way to increase risk?

I'm confused about the purported benefits of value and small equities. Suppose value or small funds have higher risks (and expected returns) compared to the market as a whole. If you tilt to value or small your expected return goes up but so does your risk. Since expenses are much higher (as is turn...
by jmk
Sat Mar 09, 2013 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's Your Favorite Hot Sauce?
Replies: 84
Views: 5593

Re: What's Your Favorite Hot Sauce?

Sontava.
Belize habanero, line, carrots.
by jmk
Thu Feb 28, 2013 11:54 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Relation of this to M* forum?
Replies: 7
Views: 997

Relation of this to M* forum?

At one point this site mirrored the M* boglehead forum, right? Are posts here now separate?
by jmk
Thu Feb 28, 2013 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rule-of-thumb for when expensive 401/403/457 not worth it?
Replies: 4
Views: 411

Rule-of-thumb for when expensive 401/403/457 not worth it?

Many 401/403/457s have hig- ER funds plus extra yearly fees, either worked into ER or as a separate percentage. There tend to be distribution fees. etc. Of course one should max out IRAs and matched 401s first. But how about after that point? For the average investor in the accumulation phase, is ev...
by jmk
Wed Feb 27, 2013 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rollover Question: Vanguard index IRA vs. TIAA Cref 403B
Replies: 22
Views: 4339

Re: Rollover Question: Vanguard index IRA vs. TIAA Cref 403B

Doesn't TIAA add a fee (either direct or the expense ratio) if you use Vanguard funds through them in a 403b?
by jmk
Wed Feb 27, 2013 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Managing needs when equities put in taxable
Replies: 5
Views: 517

Re: Managing needs when equities put in taxable

This seems to be a common misunderstanding of tax efficiency....; if your tax-deferred account is larger than your bond allocation, then stock index funds also benefit from being placed in tax-deferred accounts. I see that now, and thx. I do feel my rather obvious main point should be emphasized mo...
by jmk
Tue Feb 26, 2013 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Managing needs when equities put in taxable
Replies: 5
Views: 517

Re: Managing needs when equities put in taxable

Thanks!. That is exactly the situation I was asking about. The rub is identified in the article: Make sure your taxable account is large enough. If your taxable account is not large enough, say twice as large as the cash needs, then you may not have enough money in your taxable account during a mark...
by jmk
Tue Feb 26, 2013 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Managing needs when equities put in taxable
Replies: 5
Views: 517

Managing needs when equities put in taxable

It's said one should treat all your assets as a whole and allocate the bond portion in tax sheltered and the equity portion in taxable accounts. This might work if you never needed to touch it, But how does one handle the many big expenses of life that come along the way before retirement? Replacing...
by jmk
Wed Dec 21, 2011 7:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What happens when IRA RMD not taken by death?
Replies: 1
Views: 489

What happens when IRA RMD not taken by death?

If an IRA's RMD of $2000 was not taken prior to the owner's death, and his trust is the beneficiary, when is his RMD due? The trustees/beneficiaries will be setting up Stretch IRAs of their own with their own RMDs. But there might not be time to file the paperwork to get permission to take the decea...