Search found 354 matches

by jmk
Sun May 26, 2013 7:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: transfering $ cnd to usa
Replies: 8
Views: 669

Re: transfering $ cnd to usa

Many people and businesses transfer more than $10k between the US and other countries every day. If everything is legitimate with the money then I wouldn't jump through even one hoop to avoid the $10k reporting requirements for financial institutions. You may even pay a fee per transfer so doing on...
by jmk
Sun May 26, 2013 5:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: transfering $ cnd to usa
Replies: 8
Views: 669

transfering $ cnd to usa

I've been told contradictory things about transferring money from Canada to USA: 1) Multiple transfers, each under $10,000 to avoid raising red-flags, 2) Transfer it all at once to avoid raising red flags of multiple smaller withdrawals Everything is legit with the money, I'm just trying to avoid un...
by jmk
Sat May 18, 2013 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's tip #14: Avoid long-term corporate bonds
Replies: 46
Views: 10341

Re: Grok's tip #14: Avoid long-term corporate bonds

Hmm...that's very interesting. Thanks for posting. So for 1926-2012 (an 87 year period) Long corporates outperformed treasuries by 50 bps while for 1973-mid 2013 (say a 40 year period) they outperformed treasuries by just 10 bps. So long corporates may perhaps have decently outperformed treasuries ...
by jmk
Sat May 18, 2013 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's tip #14: Avoid long-term corporate bonds
Replies: 46
Views: 10341

Re: Grok's tip #14: Avoid long-term corporate bonds

Over the past 40 years, the average annual return since inception of the Barclays long term corporate bond index was 8.88%.  Not too shabby. But wait- what was the return over the same period of the long-term treasury index? You guessed it, almost exactly the same, it clocked in at 8.78%. And of co...
by jmk
Fri May 17, 2013 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's Portfolio
Replies: 196
Views: 74303

Re: Rick Ferri's Portfolio

Yes, but you probably can't buy it. It's the TIAA-CREF High Yield Fund institutional share class. iShares High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) is OK if you absolutely must have HY. The 0.50% fee is a killer and the fund can develop large discounts to NAV on volatile days. Not sure how you get TIAA-C...
by jmk
Thu May 09, 2013 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Otar's book: "Unveiling the Retirement Myth"
Replies: 107
Views: 28040

Re: Otar's book: "Unveiling the Retirement Myth"

I also appreciated Otar's take on distribution portfolios, his skepticism on Monte Carlo simulations, and some of the other points the Lbill mentioned. However, I was also disappointed that Otar never seemed to express any caution about basing his recommendations and the retirement calculator that ...
by jmk
Tue May 07, 2013 4:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How Much Did You Spend on Your Engagement Ring??
Replies: 289
Views: 33505

Re: How Much Did You Spend on Your Engagement Ring??

Do as I and use the engagement ring as part of your "emergency fund".
by jmk
Sun May 05, 2013 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Six questions (and answers) about bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 5578

Re: Vanguard: Six questions (and answers) about bonds

Fight the fight tfb. I'd love to see some thoughts on those in taxable accounts. Ie, it seems like CDs have a tough time against munis for anyone in the top bracket. I agree munis are still better than CDs in taxable accounts for someone in the top bracket. CDs are FDIC insured, though. Aren't muni...
by jmk
Sun May 05, 2013 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Six questions (and answers) about bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 5578

Re: Bond risk ?

- Also, if you compare the above figures from a real (after inflation adjustment) perspective there was a -28% loss from the end of 1976 to the end of 1980. It's actually worse. By my calculations, in inflation adjusted terms a synthesized version of the total bond index would be down 52% from 1940...
by jmk
Fri May 03, 2013 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which metric to use with FRED data?
Replies: 0
Views: 331

Which metric to use with FRED data?

I'm downloading some of the FRED bond databases at e.g. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BAMLCC3A057YTRIV?cid=32413 They offer the following ways of parsing the index data. Which do I want to use to generate the standard annualized returns? Annual - Percent Change? thanks. Change x(t) - x...
by jmk
Thu May 02, 2013 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Have A-rated int corporate bonds ever defaulted >1.4%?
Replies: 7
Views: 727

Have A-rated int corporate bonds ever defaulted >1.4%?

The "default premium" on the yield of the Intermediate corporate bond fund is about 1.39% above the intermediate treasury fund. Has there ever been a period where a bonds portfolio with only 20% below A3 (VFICX) has defaulted enough to even come close to that? Even during the depression A rated bond...
by jmk
Tue Apr 30, 2013 12:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Dumbest Financial Move
Replies: 166
Views: 18033

Re: Your Dumbest Financial Move

1.graduate degree in philosophy. Dumbest? I think philosophical background is an important human-capital asset. How do you figure that? It took five years out of my earning life and didn't give me a marketable skill. If I'd gotten a more practical degree or even just started working earlier I'd be ...
by jmk
Tue Apr 30, 2013 5:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Dumbest Financial Move
Replies: 166
Views: 18033

Re: Your Dumbest Financial Move

1.graduate degree in philosophy.
2. Student loan when lost teaching assistantship.
3. Buying house at height of bubble after getting tired of waiting five years for market to crash.

Good news is due to boglehead lifestyle, I've still managed to save a considerable amount and live ok.
by jmk
Sat Apr 27, 2013 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity put $ into my elected funds... from 1992!
Replies: 5
Views: 1436

Re: Fidelity put $ into my elected funds... from 1992!

Ou of curiosity, what were the funds? Did you have "Magellan Mania"? I actually impressed myself: It was 75% Total international Index and 25% Japan Smaller Companies. So actually, I could have done a lot worse! The ER on the latter is only 1.05%. The Japan fund only started in 1995, so they must b...
by jmk
Sat Apr 27, 2013 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity put $ into my elected funds... from 1992!
Replies: 5
Views: 1436

Fidelity put $ into my elected funds... from 1992!

I just started my 403b with Fidelity at a university job. I wasn't allowed to log into the fidelity site (to choose elections) because I used to work for the same university in the 1980s and was still listed in Fidelity's system as "terminated". Fidelity finally (re)activated the account this week, ...
by jmk
Fri Apr 19, 2013 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Value and Size premium] v & sl risk quantifiable?
Replies: 6
Views: 1045

Re: v & sl risk quantifiable?

You can look at the results in same way I looked at commodities, in other words how correlated are the risks and do they have a strong tendency to show up at same time or not. That helps you decide on the AA. What is the correlation of the risks? From this chart from Fama French Small seems to show...
by jmk
Wed Apr 17, 2013 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Value and Size premium] v & sl risk quantifiable?
Replies: 6
Views: 1045

[Value and Size premium] v & sl risk quantifiable?

The equity, value and small premiums are known quantities, at least in terms of historical analysis. The risk underlying the equity premium is quantified, in terms of beta and standard deviation. The risks underlying value and small premiums are not quantified like beta--at least I've not seen any s...
by jmk
Sat Apr 13, 2013 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation & Vanguard Funds
Replies: 8
Views: 1620

Re: Inflation & Vanguard Funds

Surprising: 1) TIPs are not correlated with cpu-u! WTF? This makes we wonder if the "synthetic TIPs" in Simba's database is way off in its formulation and assumptions, frankly. TIPS haven't been around during a period of a high inflation, so we don't have actual data to get a correlation; the diffe...
by jmk
Thu Apr 11, 2013 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reissue of I-Bonds from a Trust
Replies: 7
Views: 676

Re: Reissue of I-Bonds from a Trust

jsl11 wrote:Thanks HueyLD. That seems to answer the question.
Jeff
I did this too, just like the previous poster. Mine too were reissued in paper, with electronic as second step. It was relatively straightforward, except for writing all the bond numbers on forms. Also, it can take awhile if they're busy.
by jmk
Thu Apr 04, 2013 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation & Vanguard Funds
Replies: 8
Views: 1620

Re: Inflation & Vanguard Funds

.....
by jmk
Thu Apr 04, 2013 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation & Vanguard Funds
Replies: 8
Views: 1620

Re: Inflation & Vanguard Funds

Surprising: 1) TIPs are not correlated with cpu-u! WTF? This makes we wonder if the "synthetic TIPs" in Simba's database is way off in its formulation and assumptions, frankly. There was a previous thread on this. Why are TIPS not correlated with inflation? That is because TIPS prices vary with the...
by jmk
Thu Apr 04, 2013 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation & Vanguard Funds
Replies: 8
Views: 1620

Inflation & Vanguard Funds

For fun I ran the correlations with inflation 1972-2012 of all the vanguard funds in the simba backtesting spreadsheet. The four least correlated funds with cpu-u are in red, and the four most correlated funds are in green: http://i.imgur.com/F4tx7zU.jpg Not surprising: 1) LTTreasury bonds are least...
by jmk
Fri Mar 29, 2013 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1970-80s "total bond mrk" idx returns?
Replies: 0
Views: 404

1970-80s "total bond mrk" idx returns?

Looking into the 1976-1986 data for the Total Bond Fund, I was curious at the discrepancy between the Lehman Aggregate Bond Index values cited by Taylor in http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=1650640#p1650640 and the entries in Simba's spreadsheet for same. (See below.) One of them is w...
by jmk
Fri Mar 29, 2013 8:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best/Favorite ipad Apps
Replies: 34
Views: 5026

Re: Best/Favorite ipad Apps

Dropbox
Evernote

Both of these allow easy transfer between ipad and various machines.
I use Evernote to record "universal" bookmarks too.
by jmk
Fri Mar 29, 2013 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1119
Views: 627291

Total Bond data wrong? (Spreadsheet for backtesting)

Looking into the 1976-1986 data for the Total Bond Fund, I was curious at the discrepancy between the Lehman Aggregate Bond Index values cited by Taylor in http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=1650640#p1650640 and the entries in Simba's spreadsheet for same. (See below.) One of them is wr...
by jmk
Thu Mar 28, 2013 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard yearly return data < 2003?
Replies: 1
Views: 316

Vanguard yearly return data < 2003?

Can anyone refer me to yearly fund returns for years prior to 2003?

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/FundsB ... TB=yrlyTBI
by jmk
Mon Mar 25, 2013 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1119
Views: 627291

Fund Data Correction (Spreadsheet for backtesting)

1) I believe the returns on VFSVX are incorrect for the last couple years. Looking at Vanguard site I see: Returns 2010= 24.97, 2011= -19.09, 2012= 18.90. 2) I'm wondering how the CPI-U is calculated. When I get data at the FRED site for CPI-U: CPI urban = (231.198 - 227.605) / 227.605) = 1.57%? Thi...
by jmk
Sat Mar 23, 2013 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Understanding Swedroe's Minimizing Fat Tails Portfolio
Replies: 49
Views: 8298

Re: Help Understanding Swedroe's Minimizing Fat Tails Portfo

larryswedroe wrote:I have backtested the strategy to 1970 and it has held up remarkably well in all environments
Larry, in your back testing what did you use for "synthetic tips" before 1999?
by jmk
Fri Mar 22, 2013 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to find assets which are least correlated?
Replies: 16
Views: 3880

Re: How to find assets which are least correlated?

You could sum the bivariate correlation coefficients of each pair, and divide by the number of pairs. But I don't think that is a very useful thing to do. What you care about is not some abstract mathematical concept, but the return and volatility of alternative portfolios. So why not calculate tha...
by jmk
Fri Mar 22, 2013 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aren't V & S a less efficient way to increase risk?
Replies: 10
Views: 1483

Re: Aren't V & S a less efficient way to increase risk?

One comment about correlations, when Larry compares Value to Market, or Small to Value, he isn't giving you data on the indexes (say DFA US LV to Vanguard TSM), he is showing you the correlations of the "value premium" to the "stock premium", which are defined as "value stock index return minus gro...
by jmk
Thu Mar 21, 2013 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to find assets which are least correlated?
Replies: 16
Views: 3880

How to find assets which are least correlated?

If you have the returns of three (or four or five...) assets 1972-2012 and are trying to put a number on their collective correlation with each other, taken as a whole, how would you do that in excel? The ultimate aim is to find combinations of 3 or 4 which are least correlated collectively. (Would ...
by jmk
Tue Mar 19, 2013 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: From whence value premium?
Replies: 11
Views: 1141

Re: From whence value premium?

Sorry to be a grammar nerd, but "whence" has the 'from' part built into it. :-) Um... while you are technically correct in the strict sense, the issue is not so clear, Linefort: And even a brief look at historical sources shows that from whence has been common since the thirteenth century. It has b...
by jmk
Tue Mar 19, 2013 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: From whence value premium?
Replies: 11
Views: 1141

From whence value premium?

"Fama and French hypothesized that while small-cap and value stocks have higher beta (they have more equity-type risk), they also have additional risk unrelated to beta." I understand mathematically how factor analysis can identify parts which contribute in different amounts to an effect. And I unde...
by jmk
Mon Mar 18, 2013 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why target date funds add TIPS only at retirement?
Replies: 36
Views: 4441

Re: Why target date funds add TIPS only at retirement?

If Vanguard feels TIPS are appropriate for Target Retirement Income why are they not included in Life Strategy Income? Both families are aimed at diferent purposes. Retirement income assumes you're seven years in retirement without a job. LifeStrategy income just assumes you want income or a safer ...
by jmk
Sun Mar 17, 2013 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why target date funds add TIPS only at retirement?
Replies: 36
Views: 4441

Re: Why target date funds add TIPS only at retirement?

This is purely speculation, but I wouldn't be surprised if Vanguard uses TBM just because they want to hedge their bets on investments strategies. Perhaps the argument can be made for 100% TIPS. But how would people in the target retirement funds have felt in 2008, when Vanguard's TIPS fund lost 12...
by jmk
Sun Mar 17, 2013 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why target date funds add TIPS only at retirement?
Replies: 36
Views: 4441

Re: Why target date funds add TIPS only at retirement?

I don't quite understand why I, or anyone else, isn't 100% TIPS in fixed income. Because TIPs expected returns are less than similar nominal bonds since there's no free lunch. So, other things being equal, if one can ride out the inflation-deflation cycles you're better off not paying the premium f...
by jmk
Sun Mar 17, 2013 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why target date funds add TIPS only at retirement?
Replies: 36
Views: 4441

Re: Why target date funds add TIPS only at retirement?

s: Vanguard's approach to target-date funds While the risk of inflation is prevalent throughout an investor’s life cycle, it’s primarily in the later stages that investors must focus on investment tools to provide some protection. This is because for investors in the accumulation stage, inflation p...
by jmk
Sun Mar 17, 2013 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why target date funds add TIPS only at retirement?
Replies: 36
Views: 4441

Why target date funds add TIPS only at retirement?

The Vanguard Target Retirement fund glide path only starts adding TIPS into the mix close to the date of retirement, with a max of 20% of bonds 7 years in. The bond portion is all tbm bond before that. Has Vanguard stated their reasoning? Do you agree? If it makes sense to hedge inflation then, why ...
by jmk
Sat Mar 16, 2013 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry's nice summary of "expected" return.
Replies: 31
Views: 4657

Larry's nice summary of "expected" return.

I thought this short article from BAM's website was a wonderful reminder about the true nature of risk that is easy to forget once you get into the number crunching. Sometimes Larry's shorthand is hard to follow, but the writing here is articulate yet profound in the best Bogle tradition: http://www...
by jmk
Fri Mar 15, 2013 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VGTSX/VTIAX regions fixed?
Replies: 1
Views: 355

VGTSX/VTIAX regions fixed?

Vanguard Total International tracks the MSCI All Country World ex USA Investable Market Index. Does this index have a fixed setting for Europe, Pacific, Emerging or do the ratios change over time?
thanks
by jmk
Wed Mar 13, 2013 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Real Estate fee reduction?
Replies: 16
Views: 1895

Re: TIAA Real Estate fee reduction?

TIAA Real Estate really isn't the same as a REIT:
this morningstar graph
by jmk
Wed Mar 13, 2013 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: spreadsheet of asset returns 1926 to present?
Replies: 9
Views: 2417

spreadsheet of asset returns 1926 to present?

I know on this site is a wonderful spreadsheet by Simba of Vanguard returns from 1972 to 2011.
I used to have a similar spreadsheet going back to 1926 or maybe even 1871 for various broad asset class returns.
Can anyone point me to this?
by jmk
Tue Mar 12, 2013 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aren't V & S a less efficient way to increase risk?
Replies: 10
Views: 1483

Re: Aren't v & s a less efficient way to increase risk?

They are IMO clearly unique risks, whatever you think about the risk vs. behavioral story. That is demonstrated simply by looking at the annual correlations Beta to size has been about 0.4, size to value about 0. and Value to Beta about 0.1 Those numbers change everything. I didn't realize the corr...
by jmk
Mon Mar 11, 2013 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aren't V & S a less efficient way to increase risk?
Replies: 10
Views: 1483

Re: Aren't v & s a less efficient way to increase risk?

Thank you and that is helpful. I don't personally think it's intuitive that distressed or small companies have unique risk beyond just more of the good old equity risk. Of course I'm not qualified to take on Fama and French. But Bogle seems to agree with me. I compare this so-called value/small risk...
by jmk
Mon Mar 11, 2013 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aren't V & S a less efficient way to increase risk?
Replies: 10
Views: 1483

Aren't V & S a less efficient way to increase risk?

I'm confused about the purported benefits of value and small equities. Suppose value or small funds have higher risks (and expected returns) compared to the market as a whole. If you tilt to value or small your expected return goes up but so does your risk. Since expenses are much higher (as is turn...
by jmk
Sat Mar 09, 2013 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's Your Favorite Hot Sauce?
Replies: 84
Views: 5630

Re: What's Your Favorite Hot Sauce?

Sontava.
Belize habanero, line, carrots.
by jmk
Thu Feb 28, 2013 11:54 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Relation of this to M* forum?
Replies: 7
Views: 1010

Relation of this to M* forum?

At one point this site mirrored the M* boglehead forum, right? Are posts here now separate?
by jmk
Thu Feb 28, 2013 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rule-of-thumb for when expensive 401/403/457 not worth it?
Replies: 4
Views: 416

Rule-of-thumb for when expensive 401/403/457 not worth it?

Many 401/403/457s have hig- ER funds plus extra yearly fees, either worked into ER or as a separate percentage. There tend to be distribution fees. etc. Of course one should max out IRAs and matched 401s first. But how about after that point? For the average investor in the accumulation phase, is ev...
by jmk
Wed Feb 27, 2013 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rollover Question: Vanguard index IRA vs. TIAA Cref 403B
Replies: 22
Views: 4354

Re: Rollover Question: Vanguard index IRA vs. TIAA Cref 403B

Doesn't TIAA add a fee (either direct or the expense ratio) if you use Vanguard funds through them in a 403b?