Search found 375 matches

by jmk
Sun Apr 24, 2016 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early pension vs Normal Age- why so similar
Replies: 10
Views: 1342

Re: Early pension vs Normal Age- why so similar

bertilak wrote:Shouldn't "Years of Service" be 10 greater for age 62 than 52?Also, there will probably be 10 years worth of raises to bump up the "Average Monthlyt.
No because I no longer work there.
by jmk
Sat Apr 23, 2016 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early pension vs Normal Age- why so similar
Replies: 10
Views: 1342

Early pension vs Normal Age- why so similar

My estimated state pension for "normal" (age 62) and "early" (now) is as follows. Given the average lifespan of 82.5 years, the respective totals are about Get normal pension starting age 62.5 = $255,600 Get early pension starting now age 52 = $212.342 In other words, only 17% less. Why wouldn't I s...
by jmk
Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The enemy of "left tail" portfolios - bonds
Replies: 29
Views: 3003

Re: The enemy of "left tail" portfolios - bonds

I've noticed that the type of defensive portfolio allocation that is supposed to reduce "left tail" risk hasn't been faring particularly well this year. Risk parity portfolios, such as the "all weather" portfolio advocated by Ray Dalio are down 10% or more, the Permanent Portfolio advocated by Harr...
by jmk
Tue Jun 25, 2013 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard GNMA and Total Bond Index
Replies: 60
Views: 7587

Re: Total Bond Market -- Buy, sell, or hold?

The worst annual return for Total Bond Market Index Fund was 1994 when it declined -2.66%. Many investors panicked and sold. So what happened? In 1995 TBM gained +16%. I intend to stay-the-course. We know that income returns shields the Total Bond Fund from some losses. But since it now yields 1.78...
by jmk
Tue Jun 25, 2013 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: boiling it down for an investing novice
Replies: 15
Views: 1528

Re: History of Aggregate Bond Index

Given current yields, wouldn't it be more reaalistic to expenct the following if history repeated itself: http://i.imgur.com/FyZ3AW7.jpg nedsaid wrote: Somewhere, Taylor Larimore posted the yearly returns for this fund going back to 1978. It was very reassuring because the late seventies and very ea...
by jmk
Sun Jun 23, 2013 7:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Benefits of "Miller Trust"?
Replies: 1
Views: 627

Benefits of "Miller Trust"?

We are planning for my mother-in-law's use of Medicaid for Alzheimer's care within a year or two. People have recommended the establishment of a "Miller Trust" so she will qualify for ALTCS (Medicaid), which in AZ has a $2,130.00 per month limit. I don't understand the benefit of a Miller Trust. If ...
by jmk
Mon Jun 17, 2013 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's " The Right Financial Plan"--A Gem
Replies: 54
Views: 16349

Re: Larry Swedroe's " The Right Financial Plan"--A Gem

jmk If it was possible to give you a formula I would have. For better or worse AA is just as much art, if not more, than science. They key is to understand the issues so that you can decide for yourself the right AA for you. Have to know the questions to ask Larry Right, agree 100%. I suppose a wor...
by jmk
Sun Jun 16, 2013 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's " The Right Financial Plan"--A Gem
Replies: 54
Views: 16349

Re: Larry Swedroe's " The Right Financial Plan"--A Gem

Another excellent part of this book, that has not yet been mentioned, are the chapters on how to slice and dice within sub categories of equities and fixed income. Contrary to his reputation as a "value tilter", the chapter outlines when one should increase or decrease his tilt to large or small, va...
by jmk
Sun Jun 09, 2013 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do I really need a Smartphone?
Replies: 433
Views: 42201

Re: Do I really need a Smartphone?

You don't have to spend a lot. The key is to get a phone that meets your specific needs and no more. With a family, there are family plans that often make more sense. I like paying for my phone separately (pay as you go) so I'm not locked into a model to get my ROI. In our house it makes more sense ...
by jmk
Thu Jun 06, 2013 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which yield to use for comparing tax efficiency?
Replies: 2
Views: 410

Which yield to use for comparing tax efficiency?

Forgive the beginner question. In trying to assess tax efficiency of Vanguard stock and bond funds, which data do you look at? Is there an easier way then sifting through all the distribution history to get an average dividend percent? Is the sec yield useful? Any other yield? The after tax tab retu...
by jmk
Mon Jun 03, 2013 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mountain America Credit Union 5-Year IRA CD
Replies: 59
Views: 10246

Re: Mountain America Credit Union 5-Year IRA CD

[*]The 5-year CD earns 2.0% APY with an early withdrawal penalty (EWP) of 180 days of interest In the terms I noticed if you withdraw partial amount, you get the 180 day penalty and the remainder needs to be withdrawn or reinvested at the current rates. Do other 5y 2% cd have this limitation too? F...
by jmk
Mon Jun 03, 2013 12:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What you tell yourself when you end up buying at a peak
Replies: 47
Views: 4665

Re: What you tell yourself when you end up buying at a peak

Total Intl Stock Admiral stayed pretty flat from January till April, then it had a nice little 5% rally not long ago, and I happened to buy $10,000 at about the peak. Since then, the fund has dropped back down quite a bit. I'm sure this happens to nearly everyone in this forum at some point. What d...
by jmk
Sun Jun 02, 2013 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P article on mid-cap being the "sweet spot"
Replies: 8
Views: 1507

Re: S&P article on mid-cap being the "sweet spot"

Mel did well with his unloved mid-caps for a couple of decades during times when both large and small caps were volatile. Bernard Baruch "What everyone knows isn't worth knowing." Mid-cap performance is not a secret. Recency bias is hoping that what did well in the near past will continue to do wel...
by jmk
Sun Jun 02, 2013 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P article on mid-cap being the "sweet spot"
Replies: 8
Views: 1507

Re: S&P article on mid-cap being the "sweet spot"

Mel Lindauer talks about the "unloved mid-caps." Yeah, OP, definitely check out the forum's past threads on (Mel's) unloved mid-caps--there are some great discussions and information shared in them on mid-caps. I've seen those references. This is a more recent article; maybe I should have just post...
by jmk
Thu May 30, 2013 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question on CD's/How to Decide
Replies: 14
Views: 1509

Re: Question on CD's/How to Decide

dcu.org also beats Barclay's rate. Banks lose to credit unions on rates in general. Anyone can join dcu for a $10 charity donation.
You need to have "relationship" status at dcu.org to get the better jumbo rate, which I think means you have to hold a $2500 checking account?
by jmk
Thu May 30, 2013 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it worth going beyond beta with my 403b?
Replies: 3
Views: 292

Re: Is it worth going beyond beta with my 403b?

Why not add small value in your Roth? I do plan on filling my Roths with VISVX, and Vanguard emerging or small international. I don't think 'll have enough room in my Roths. But in theory that does make sense, e.g. TSM, EXM, INtl (and bonds) in 403b. Then SV and emerging in my Roths. And more TSM a...
by jmk
Thu May 30, 2013 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it worth going beyond beta with my 403b?
Replies: 3
Views: 292

Re: Is it worth going beyond beta with my 403b?

For what it's worth, here are some of the funds on Morningstar: chart.

Image
by jmk
Thu May 30, 2013 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it worth going beyond beta with my 403b?
Replies: 3
Views: 292

Is it worth going beyond beta with my 403b?

I have only TIAA and Fidelity in my 403b. There are some very nice core Spartan Fidelity funds I use for the fundamentals: Spartan total stock market (ER .05); Spartan Int'l (ER .07) and the Spartan total bond (.07). However, my choices beyond these core funds have much higher ERs. The small value c...
by jmk
Mon May 27, 2013 9:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: transfering $ cnd to usa
Replies: 8
Views: 669

Re: transfering $ cnd to usa

If you need to do this more than once, consider setting up an account with xetrade.com. They will charge you less than the bank. Thanks for the tip. Xetrade might even be cheaper if I transfer it all one time. I have a simple savings account but am a non resident. Someone suggested buying then sell...
by jmk
Mon May 27, 2013 11:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: transfering $ cnd to usa
Replies: 8
Views: 669

Re: transfering $ cnd to usa

Laura wrote:You need to find out if your bank in the US will accept a check in a foreign currency. Some will, some will not. Fees will vary as well.
Good point. There's some stuff on the Canadian forum about the cheapest way being to buy an ETF with Canadian dollars and then sell in American.
by jmk
Sun May 26, 2013 7:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: transfering $ cnd to usa
Replies: 8
Views: 669

Re: transfering $ cnd to usa

Google "structuring". Aha, this must be what they were referencing: In the United States, the Bank Secrecy Act requires the filing of a currency transaction report (CTR) for transactions of more than $10,000 in currency (US or foreign). Financial institutions suspecting deposit structuring with int...
by jmk
Sun May 26, 2013 7:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: transfering $ cnd to usa
Replies: 8
Views: 669

Re: transfering $ cnd to usa

Many people and businesses transfer more than $10k between the US and other countries every day. If everything is legitimate with the money then I wouldn't jump through even one hoop to avoid the $10k reporting requirements for financial institutions. You may even pay a fee per transfer so doing on...
by jmk
Sun May 26, 2013 5:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: transfering $ cnd to usa
Replies: 8
Views: 669

transfering $ cnd to usa

I've been told contradictory things about transferring money from Canada to USA: 1) Multiple transfers, each under $10,000 to avoid raising red-flags, 2) Transfer it all at once to avoid raising red flags of multiple smaller withdrawals Everything is legit with the money, I'm just trying to avoid un...
by jmk
Sat May 18, 2013 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's tip #14: Avoid long-term corporate bonds
Replies: 46
Views: 10461

Re: Grok's tip #14: Avoid long-term corporate bonds

Hmm...that's very interesting. Thanks for posting. So for 1926-2012 (an 87 year period) Long corporates outperformed treasuries by 50 bps while for 1973-mid 2013 (say a 40 year period) they outperformed treasuries by just 10 bps. So long corporates may perhaps have decently outperformed treasuries ...
by jmk
Sat May 18, 2013 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's tip #14: Avoid long-term corporate bonds
Replies: 46
Views: 10461

Re: Grok's tip #14: Avoid long-term corporate bonds

Over the past 40 years, the average annual return since inception of the Barclays long term corporate bond index was 8.88%.  Not too shabby. But wait- what was the return over the same period of the long-term treasury index? You guessed it, almost exactly the same, it clocked in at 8.78%. And of co...
by jmk
Fri May 17, 2013 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's Portfolio
Replies: 196
Views: 74569

Re: Rick Ferri's Portfolio

Yes, but you probably can't buy it. It's the TIAA-CREF High Yield Fund institutional share class. iShares High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) is OK if you absolutely must have HY. The 0.50% fee is a killer and the fund can develop large discounts to NAV on volatile days. Not sure how you get TIAA-C...
by jmk
Thu May 09, 2013 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Otar's book: "Unveiling the Retirement Myth"
Replies: 107
Views: 28131

Re: Otar's book: "Unveiling the Retirement Myth"

I also appreciated Otar's take on distribution portfolios, his skepticism on Monte Carlo simulations, and some of the other points the Lbill mentioned. However, I was also disappointed that Otar never seemed to express any caution about basing his recommendations and the retirement calculator that ...
by jmk
Tue May 07, 2013 4:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How Much Did You Spend on Your Engagement Ring??
Replies: 289
Views: 33779

Re: How Much Did You Spend on Your Engagement Ring??

Do as I and use the engagement ring as part of your "emergency fund".
by jmk
Sun May 05, 2013 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Six questions (and answers) about bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 5593

Re: Vanguard: Six questions (and answers) about bonds

Fight the fight tfb. I'd love to see some thoughts on those in taxable accounts. Ie, it seems like CDs have a tough time against munis for anyone in the top bracket. I agree munis are still better than CDs in taxable accounts for someone in the top bracket. CDs are FDIC insured, though. Aren't muni...
by jmk
Sun May 05, 2013 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Six questions (and answers) about bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 5593

Re: Bond risk ?

- Also, if you compare the above figures from a real (after inflation adjustment) perspective there was a -28% loss from the end of 1976 to the end of 1980. It's actually worse. By my calculations, in inflation adjusted terms a synthesized version of the total bond index would be down 52% from 1940...
by jmk
Fri May 03, 2013 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which metric to use with FRED data?
Replies: 0
Views: 333

Which metric to use with FRED data?

I'm downloading some of the FRED bond databases at e.g. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BAMLCC3A057YTRIV?cid=32413 They offer the following ways of parsing the index data. Which do I want to use to generate the standard annualized returns? Annual - Percent Change? thanks. Change x(t) - x...
by jmk
Thu May 02, 2013 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Have A-rated int corporate bonds ever defaulted >1.4%?
Replies: 7
Views: 727

Have A-rated int corporate bonds ever defaulted >1.4%?

The "default premium" on the yield of the Intermediate corporate bond fund is about 1.39% above the intermediate treasury fund. Has there ever been a period where a bonds portfolio with only 20% below A3 (VFICX) has defaulted enough to even come close to that? Even during the depression A rated bond...
by jmk
Tue Apr 30, 2013 12:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Dumbest Financial Move
Replies: 166
Views: 18108

Re: Your Dumbest Financial Move

1.graduate degree in philosophy. Dumbest? I think philosophical background is an important human-capital asset. How do you figure that? It took five years out of my earning life and didn't give me a marketable skill. If I'd gotten a more practical degree or even just started working earlier I'd be ...
by jmk
Tue Apr 30, 2013 5:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Dumbest Financial Move
Replies: 166
Views: 18108

Re: Your Dumbest Financial Move

1.graduate degree in philosophy.
2. Student loan when lost teaching assistantship.
3. Buying house at height of bubble after getting tired of waiting five years for market to crash.

Good news is due to boglehead lifestyle, I've still managed to save a considerable amount and live ok.
by jmk
Sat Apr 27, 2013 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity put $ into my elected funds... from 1992!
Replies: 5
Views: 1445

Re: Fidelity put $ into my elected funds... from 1992!

Ou of curiosity, what were the funds? Did you have "Magellan Mania"? I actually impressed myself: It was 75% Total international Index and 25% Japan Smaller Companies. So actually, I could have done a lot worse! The ER on the latter is only 1.05%. The Japan fund only started in 1995, so they must b...
by jmk
Sat Apr 27, 2013 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity put $ into my elected funds... from 1992!
Replies: 5
Views: 1445

Fidelity put $ into my elected funds... from 1992!

I just started my 403b with Fidelity at a university job. I wasn't allowed to log into the fidelity site (to choose elections) because I used to work for the same university in the 1980s and was still listed in Fidelity's system as "terminated". Fidelity finally (re)activated the account this week, ...
by jmk
Fri Apr 19, 2013 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Value and Size premium] v & sl risk quantifiable?
Replies: 6
Views: 1054

Re: v & sl risk quantifiable?

You can look at the results in same way I looked at commodities, in other words how correlated are the risks and do they have a strong tendency to show up at same time or not. That helps you decide on the AA. What is the correlation of the risks? From this chart from Fama French Small seems to show...
by jmk
Wed Apr 17, 2013 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Value and Size premium] v & sl risk quantifiable?
Replies: 6
Views: 1054

[Value and Size premium] v & sl risk quantifiable?

The equity, value and small premiums are known quantities, at least in terms of historical analysis. The risk underlying the equity premium is quantified, in terms of beta and standard deviation. The risks underlying value and small premiums are not quantified like beta--at least I've not seen any s...
by jmk
Sat Apr 13, 2013 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation & Vanguard Funds
Replies: 8
Views: 1621

Re: Inflation & Vanguard Funds

Surprising: 1) TIPs are not correlated with cpu-u! WTF? This makes we wonder if the "synthetic TIPs" in Simba's database is way off in its formulation and assumptions, frankly. TIPS haven't been around during a period of a high inflation, so we don't have actual data to get a correlation; the diffe...
by jmk
Thu Apr 11, 2013 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reissue of I-Bonds from a Trust
Replies: 7
Views: 676

Re: Reissue of I-Bonds from a Trust

jsl11 wrote:Thanks HueyLD. That seems to answer the question.
Jeff
I did this too, just like the previous poster. Mine too were reissued in paper, with electronic as second step. It was relatively straightforward, except for writing all the bond numbers on forms. Also, it can take awhile if they're busy.
by jmk
Thu Apr 04, 2013 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation & Vanguard Funds
Replies: 8
Views: 1621

Re: Inflation & Vanguard Funds

.....
by jmk
Thu Apr 04, 2013 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation & Vanguard Funds
Replies: 8
Views: 1621

Re: Inflation & Vanguard Funds

Surprising: 1) TIPs are not correlated with cpu-u! WTF? This makes we wonder if the "synthetic TIPs" in Simba's database is way off in its formulation and assumptions, frankly. There was a previous thread on this. Why are TIPS not correlated with inflation? That is because TIPS prices vary with the...
by jmk
Thu Apr 04, 2013 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation & Vanguard Funds
Replies: 8
Views: 1621

Inflation & Vanguard Funds

For fun I ran the correlations with inflation 1972-2012 of all the vanguard funds in the simba backtesting spreadsheet. The four least correlated funds with cpu-u are in red, and the four most correlated funds are in green: http://i.imgur.com/F4tx7zU.jpg Not surprising: 1) LTTreasury bonds are least...
by jmk
Fri Mar 29, 2013 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1970-80s "total bond mrk" idx returns?
Replies: 0
Views: 407

1970-80s "total bond mrk" idx returns?

Looking into the 1976-1986 data for the Total Bond Fund, I was curious at the discrepancy between the Lehman Aggregate Bond Index values cited by Taylor in http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=1650640#p1650640 and the entries in Simba's spreadsheet for same. (See below.) One of them is w...
by jmk
Fri Mar 29, 2013 8:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best/Favorite ipad Apps
Replies: 34
Views: 5064

Re: Best/Favorite ipad Apps

Dropbox
Evernote

Both of these allow easy transfer between ipad and various machines.
I use Evernote to record "universal" bookmarks too.
by jmk
Fri Mar 29, 2013 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1122
Views: 635384

Total Bond data wrong? (Spreadsheet for backtesting)

Looking into the 1976-1986 data for the Total Bond Fund, I was curious at the discrepancy between the Lehman Aggregate Bond Index values cited by Taylor in http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=1650640#p1650640 and the entries in Simba's spreadsheet for same. (See below.) One of them is wr...
by jmk
Thu Mar 28, 2013 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard yearly return data < 2003?
Replies: 1
Views: 320

Vanguard yearly return data < 2003?

Can anyone refer me to yearly fund returns for years prior to 2003?

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/FundsB ... TB=yrlyTBI
by jmk
Mon Mar 25, 2013 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1122
Views: 635384

Fund Data Correction (Spreadsheet for backtesting)

1) I believe the returns on VFSVX are incorrect for the last couple years. Looking at Vanguard site I see: Returns 2010= 24.97, 2011= -19.09, 2012= 18.90. 2) I'm wondering how the CPI-U is calculated. When I get data at the FRED site for CPI-U: CPI urban = (231.198 - 227.605) / 227.605) = 1.57%? Thi...
by jmk
Sat Mar 23, 2013 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Understanding Swedroe's Minimizing Fat Tails Portfolio
Replies: 49
Views: 8336

Re: Help Understanding Swedroe's Minimizing Fat Tails Portfo

larryswedroe wrote:I have backtested the strategy to 1970 and it has held up remarkably well in all environments
Larry, in your back testing what did you use for "synthetic tips" before 1999?