Search found 1801 matches

by pascalwager
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investments you wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole
Replies: 110
Views: 9269

Re: Investments you wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole

Government bonds. While popular, not capital investment, not supportive of free-market principles. Bill Sharpe refers to this in RISMAT, like there's a school of thought that excludes govt bonds from the market portfolio, although he tends to take the opposite position. So your portfolio doesn't be...
by pascalwager
Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investments you wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole
Replies: 110
Views: 9269

Re: Investments you wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole

Government bonds. While popular, not capital investment, not supportive of free-market principles. Bill Sharpe refers to this in RISMAT, like there's a school of thought that excludes govt bonds from the market portfolio, although he tends to take the opposite position. So your portfolio doesn't be...
by pascalwager
Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why use percentage AA with significant assets?
Replies: 109
Views: 5324

Re: Why use percentage AA with significant assets?

Why do investors with significant assets continue to use percentage based asset allocation? Wouldn't you want to start measuring risk in dollar terms or have a minimum amount of fixed measured in years of expenses? After having settled on NOT having a separate emergency fund, I have considered what...
by pascalwager
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does anyone invest in international funds?
Replies: 306
Views: 18500

Re: Why does anyone invest in international funds?

I made the mistake of investing in international stock indexes because "experts" said to. Now I know that I am smarter than those experts. Or maybe they were just corrupt. I did the same, starting in 1995. An early advisor (investment management company) set up my portfolio , 50/50, US/int'l, and I...
by pascalwager
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do you hold bonds in your portfolio?
Replies: 296
Views: 22625

Re: Why do you hold bonds in your portfolio?

One-year performance for my two Vanguard bond funds: 11.85% and 10.15%. I don't find this overly disappointing and I've held them for a little less than one year.

But I don't expect this kind of performance year-after-year and hold them mainly as ballast for bear markets.
by pascalwager
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does anyone invest in international funds?
Replies: 306
Views: 18500

Re: Why does anyone invest in international funds?

I made the mistake of investing in international stock indexes because "experts" said to. Now I know that I am smarter than those experts. Or maybe they were just corrupt. I did the same, starting in 1995. An early advisor (investment management company) set up my portfolio, 50/50, US/int'l, and I'...
by pascalwager
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do any of you not rebalance?
Replies: 57
Views: 3081

Re: Do any of you not rebalance?

I rebalance to 55/45, but my balance band is 20% of target allocation. Under normal market conditions, this results in rebalancing something like once every four years. But I did need to rebalance recently after the 30% drop.
by pascalwager
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Strategy
Replies: 69
Views: 4827

Re: Bond Strategy

I am curious why many are suggesting HY and EM bonds right now. Yes, the yield is good but seems like there is a high risk of default which would crater the value of the bonds when that happens, no? El-Erian seemed to be warning about these two in his recent M* interview where he advised practicing...
by pascalwager
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing frequency
Replies: 6
Views: 617

Re: Rebalancing frequency

I have a 20% balancing band, so in normal markets, I rebalance about every four years, or so. But I did rebalance very recently after the 30% drop.
by pascalwager
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your AA, given your age ? and this crisis ?
Replies: 170
Views: 9481

Re: What is your AA, given your age ? and this crisis ?

1. What is your AA (Stock:Bond), given your age? and why? 2. How do you glide your risk (stock percentage) as you age and/or approach your 'need' portfolio value ? 3. Given the current market and health crisis, how do you 'stay the course' on your AA ? Stocks/bonds, 55/45. Age 77. I got into stocks...
by pascalwager
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mohamed El-Erian interview by Jeff Ptak of Morningstar
Replies: 21
Views: 3504

Re: Mohamed El-Erian interview by Jeff Ptak of Morningstar

This is an exceptionally good and timely interview with Dr. Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, the parent of PIMCO, where he formerly served as chief executive and co-chief investment officer. Dr. El-Erian addresses economic 'sudden stops,' the correct fiscal and monetary policy r...
by pascalwager
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mohamed El-Erian interview by Jeff Ptak of Morningstar
Replies: 21
Views: 3504

Re: Mohamed El-Erian interview by Jeff Ptak of Morningstar

He seems to be suggesting selling off international stocks, especially emerging markets, and also domestic corporate bonds, especially high yield--until the virus is defeated or mitigated. I'd like to see his portfolio. Like Nassim Taleb says, "Just show me your portfolio!" But as an overview, it wa...
by pascalwager
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munis getting slaughtered!
Replies: 194
Views: 18600

Re: Munis getting slaughtered!

VCLAX and VCADX are nearly 100% of my bond holdings. Its been a first-hand education to watch, but the bond ETFs have been hit much harder. I also had VTEB and thankfully had to sell that portion to pay my taxes last month. I've certainly been reminded that munis are not great for crisis AA rebalan...
by pascalwager
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I have seen this coming?
Replies: 107
Views: 7452

Re: Should I have seen this coming?

When China closed Wuhan shouldn’t I have converted my VTSAX to money-market since I should have known an epidemic never stays local? Worst case scenario, if I had pulled the funds out, I would’ve been out of the market for 2-3 months and could put money back in VTSAX if nothing happened? Im in my 3...
by pascalwager
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to get Toilet Paper ? seriously.
Replies: 684
Views: 56809

Re: How to get Toilet Paper ? seriously.

I arrived just after 6 am today to hopefully improve my paper-chase odds, but my supermarket shelves were nearly empty of any paper products--just like last week. I'd been bolstered the night before by watching a PR video by the store (family-owned, regional chain) CEO, but it only created more disa...
by pascalwager
Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to get Toilet Paper ? seriously.
Replies: 684
Views: 56809

Re: How to get Toilet Paper ? seriously.

Well, I got lucky and now have 6+ high-quality mega-rolls. This should last at least a month, I think. I happened to hear a local drug store clerk mention that they would get a load in Wednesday, so I checked back twice that day. They still had some remnants (behind the checkout area counters only) ...
by pascalwager
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing into stocks when they fall is unrealistic
Replies: 126
Views: 10719

Re: Rebalancing into stocks when they fall is unrealistic

I just watched the Vanguard CEO and CIO discussing investor behavior during this period of high volatility. Here's what they advise:
  • Rebalance, rebalance, rebalance...
They said it does take courage (John Bogle called it grit) to keep rebalancing. Also, Vanguard only expects a mild recession.
by pascalwager
Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deploying your emergency fund to buy stocks? Think again.
Replies: 183
Views: 29649

Re: Deploying your emergency fund to buy stocks? Think again.

Of course, I agree with Will in that, generally speaking, it's wise not to use one's EF to buy stocks. My point being I think, like scorcher31, that there are some exceptions. Both of you have extremely well-funded 'EFs', if we can indeed call 3+ years of expenses an EF. :wink: In that case, that d...
by pascalwager
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deploying your emergency fund to buy stocks? Think again.
Replies: 183
Views: 29649

Re: Deploying your emergency fund to buy stocks? Think again.

I have about $16k in the Vg Treasury MMF, but otherwise my EF is embedded inside my two portfolios (riskless and risky)--or at least I hope it is. Someone above said that both stocks and bonds would get hammered, and the bonds part has me worried.
by pascalwager
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your AA, given your age ? and this crisis ?
Replies: 170
Views: 9481

Re: What is your AA, given your age ? and this crisis ?

My age is 77. I don't have a single, conventional portfolio, but rather both a riskless portfolio and a risk portfolio. They're similar to Bill Sharpe's RISMAT e-book portfolios for retirees. My riskless portfolio is a Vanguard TIPS fund at 24% of the overall investments. Sharpe specifies this parti...
by pascalwager
Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International is in meltdown
Replies: 308
Views: 22460

Re: International is in meltdown

Since 2/19/2020 (US market high):

Vg Total Stock Market Index Fund price down 21%
Vg Total International Stock Index Fund price down 23%
by pascalwager
Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19318
Views: 2681058

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

But Tom Hanks is elderly, isn’t he? He’s 63! Yes, he is in the at risk age range. I think he is diabetic as well. Another risk factor. I'm confident Tom will be just fine. People like Tom Hanks will get the best medical care in the world. If he somehow did not recover it would probably change a lot...
by pascalwager
Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19318
Views: 2681058

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

CoastalWinds wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:19 am
Toilet paper has gone viral!
At my store it's totally "gone" missing--along with all other paper products. Any port in a storm, I guess.
by pascalwager
Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing into stocks when they fall is unrealistic
Replies: 126
Views: 10719

Re: Rebalancing into stocks when they fall is unrealistic

I have always rebalanced all the way down and all the way up. It's part of my Investment policy statement (IPS) . As far as bear markets and corrections I continue to rebalance on the way down. The reason: I've always thought that is what you must do to maintain your chosen asset allocation and ris...
by pascalwager
Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing into stocks when they fall is unrealistic
Replies: 126
Views: 10719

Re: Rebalancing into stocks when they fall is unrealistic

I have always rebalanced all the way down and all the way up. It's part of my Investment policy statement (IPS) . As far as bear markets and corrections I continue to rebalance on the way down. The reason: I've always thought that is what you must do to maintain your chosen asset allocation and ris...
by pascalwager
Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing into stocks when they fall is unrealistic
Replies: 126
Views: 10719

Re: Rebalancing into stocks when they fall is unrealistic

visualguy wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:54 am
How can you tell if you're rebalancing into a Japan scenario, or not? You can't, and this kills rebalancing (into stocks) for me.
Some of the forum proponents of a strong US home bias for stocks have claimed that a Japan scenario can't happen here.
by pascalwager
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Down >4%
Replies: 49
Views: 8992

Re: Total Bond Market Down >4%

I did a fairly large rebalance of VBTIX into equities today, and then quick checked the ETF during trading hours and saw that BND was down 5% and was sort of dissapointed, but wasn't going to cancel the trades. Then just like the rest of you saw that VBTIX was only down 0.96% for the day. Yay. Like...
by pascalwager
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds falling?
Replies: 236
Views: 5787

Re: Total Bond Market Down >4%

TBM is included in Bill Sharpe's Risk Portfolio. For safety, he hold's TIPs on the side.
by pascalwager
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?
Replies: 310
Views: 28370

Re: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?

I think if you have a theory-based reason for doing it, and it's part of your IPS, etc... it's all fine. The thing that felt like a red flag to me in your post was putting a dollar amount to it, which really shouldn't matter - i.e. any reasoning should be tied to percentages, not dollars. If moving...
by pascalwager
Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?
Replies: 310
Views: 28370

Re: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?

I am also moving around fairly large amounts of money. And yes, this is absolutely rational in my opinion. If anything, down markets and volatile markets are a good test of how comfortable you feel with your AA. Yes, it hurts to lose a lot, but I find buying at lower prices helps. I have had months...
by pascalwager
Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?
Replies: 310
Views: 28370

Re: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?

Just put in an order. Shifted around 3% of my portfolio from fixed income to stocks, per my IPS. Maybe it goes down from here, or up. :beer For me to rebalance from bonds to stocks, I'd need to move $103k. Is this basically rational during market turbulence? In your case, did you know the price of ...
by pascalwager
Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?
Replies: 310
Views: 28370

Re: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?

I think some people believe that selling bonds to buy stocks at lower prices will improve their returns, but this is true only if they accept a new, higher stocks-to-bonds ratio after the market recovers. If they continue to rebalance at the same risk ratio, then there is no performance advantage. ...
by pascalwager
Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why 5% Rebalancing Bands Are Wrong
Replies: 65
Views: 5076

Re: Why 5% Rebalancing Bands Are Wrong

There probably isn't that much performance difference between an 80/20 portfolio and an 83/17 portfolio, so rebalancing at 85/15 seems reasonable.
by pascalwager
Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?
Replies: 310
Views: 28370

Re: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?

Just put in an order. Shifted around 3% of my portfolio from fixed income to stocks, per my IPS. Maybe it goes down from here, or up. :beer For me to rebalance from bonds to stocks, I'd need to move $103k. Is this basically rational during market turbulence? In your case, did you know the price of ...
by pascalwager
Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?
Replies: 310
Views: 28370

Re: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?

Just put in an order. Shifted around 3% of my portfolio from fixed income to stocks, per my IPS. Maybe it goes down from here, or up. :beer For me to rebalance from bonds to stocks, I'd need to move $103k. Is this basically rational during market turbulence? In your case, did you know the price of ...
by pascalwager
Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?
Replies: 310
Views: 28370

Re: Who here is buying stocks today and how much?

Depends on my rebalancing bands, but will probably sell bonds to buy stocks. Need to wait until late tonight (after 11 pm) for my spreadsheet to update.
by pascalwager
Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation Rebalancing During the Corona Virus
Replies: 18
Views: 2308

Re: Asset Allocation Rebalancing During the Corona Virus

My stock allocation target is 60%. Like all of us, my stock has dipped lately. I'm not at 55%. I'd normally rebalance at this point, selling bonds to buy more stock. What are some of you doing, during these very unusual times with the Corona virus? I know some are selling stock, even though that go...
by pascalwager
Sun Mar 08, 2020 6:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Move from bonds to Money Market,CDs, savings acct, etc.?[UPDATE]
Replies: 98
Views: 8694

Re: Move from bonds to Money Market,CDs, savings acct, etc.?

That strategy would seems to imply that most people should use only inflation protected bonds. Virtually all future consumption is subject to inflation. I don't have any specifically known nominal expenses even one year into the future. I think very few people have long-term fixed nominal expenses ...
by pascalwager
Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19318
Views: 2681058

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

So far in this credit zombie apocalypse, foreign DM and EM have held up better than USA stocks in dollar terms. At least in my portfolio. I wouldn't have predicted that, but this is knocking the shine off the US stocks. I've temporarily directed cash flow to US equities to keep them at the level I ...
by pascalwager
Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lamenting time lost and squandered opportunities
Replies: 31
Views: 2908

Re: Lamenting time lost and squandered opportunities

I didn't begin stock investing until age 53, but it turned out well, anyway--well, at least pre-pandemic-wise.
by pascalwager
Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett purchased a million more shares in the recent sell-off. Are you smarter?
Replies: 27
Views: 3528

Re: Warren Buffett purchased a million more shares in the recent sell-off. Are you smarter?

Warren Buffett is a skilled, legendary, active investor, who buys individual companies--but I'm not. I'm a passive, fund investor, so I pay no particular attention to his activities, and only rebalance using 5/20 bands. Nothing he does guides my own investing decisions, at least consciously.
by pascalwager
Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why it’s a good idea to hold long term Treasuries as your emergency fund
Replies: 114
Views: 9284

Re: Why it’s a good idea to hold long term Treasuries as your emergency fund

As an investor, Hedgefundie is certainly not "most people", or that's been my impression. Given the way he defines this personal emergency situation, VCLAX seems reasonable, and the fund actually has an intermediate-term duration, less than 6 years, I believe. Personally, he (and vineviz) have chang...
by pascalwager
Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
Replies: 147
Views: 11742

Re: Dead cat bounce?

We should start defining a DCB... I'll play ... How about a DCB = a recovery of 25% of the fall. If market is down 12%, a DCB would be a 3% recovery off the low. Ok, that's half of it. How do I tell a dead cat bounce from an alive cat bounce ? Schrodinger says you can't. I've seen the real thing, m...
by pascalwager
Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying VTI on market open
Replies: 30
Views: 2734

Re: MFs to ETFs: Fear of being out of market

I was out of the market for only a few days early last year during the greatest rebound in history and lost about $12k (rough estimate). I was doing an account transfer. Not a good feeling!

I had begun the transfer before the market began to drop, about two weeks earlier.
by pascalwager
Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Dark Side of "Stay the Course"
Replies: 202
Views: 16491

Re: The Dark Side of "Stay the Course"

I started investing in 2010. I never have been tested in a significant, concerning market cycle like the tech bubble or the Great Recession. However, I did my homework and internalized the buy and hold long term investor should expect harrowing times. Odds are if you tune in to the news and try to ...
by pascalwager
Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: stop playing the game, 0/100 and hyperinflation scenario
Replies: 60
Views: 4487

Re: stop playing the game, 0/100 and hyperinflation scenario

"Stop playing the game" means selling some/a lot of your stocks for safer assets. Bernstein recommends a large slug of individual TIPS in tax-sheltered accounts and/or short-term nominal Treasuries in taxable accounts as the safe assets. Over a few years, I went from about 85/15 to about 55/45. Bern...
by pascalwager
Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you glad to have bonds in your AA? I am.
Replies: 76
Views: 4749

Re: Are you glad to have bonds in your AA? I am.

I’m a relatively conservative younger accumulator with a high savings rate. Have held a globally diversified 70/30 portfolio for years. After extensive research, last year I moved my bond allocation from Vanguard’s recommended US and international (hedged) index split into 100% long-term U.S. Treas...
by pascalwager
Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chinese stocks will plunge on Monday?
Replies: 158
Views: 11081

Re: Chinese stocks will plunge on Monday?

pascalwager wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:42 pm
Since market high on 2/19/2020:

VTSAX -12.72%
VTIAX -9.32%
...and:

VEMAX (emerging markets) -7.7%
by pascalwager
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chinese stocks will plunge on Monday?
Replies: 158
Views: 11081

Re: Chinese stocks will plunge on Monday?

Since market high on 2/19/2020:

VTSAX -12.72%
VTIAX -9.32%
by pascalwager
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Role of money market fund in a portfolio
Replies: 29
Views: 2289

Re: Role of money market fund in a portfolio

I'm curious as to why a money market position isn't part of the VG Target Date Funds or other all-in-one funds. Is the thinking to keep a position in cash/MM independent of your TDF? Vanguard recommends that a retiree keep two years of living expenses in cash, outside the investment portfolio. For ...