Search found 6041 matches

by market timer
Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 737
Views: 63610

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

bhsince87 wrote:
Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:13 pm
Just curious, what are you up year over year?

In other words, from March 16, 2018, to March 16, 2019.
22%
by market timer
Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 737
Views: 63610

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Wow, appreciate all the feedback. I was being a bit facetious with the "top-calling" language. Several of you realized the explanation is more likely a reevaluation of risk tolerance: If I had been through the experiences market timer described in his epic 29 page thread, I might well be feeling som...
by market timer
Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 737
Views: 63610

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

flyingaway wrote:
Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:55 am
Good intuition. When do you plan to move back into equities?
Possibly never. I don't feel FOMO (fear of missing out) because I don't need equity gains to fund my retirement. Seriously considering buying some single-family rentals with my stash. Let's see what the market offers later this year.
by market timer
Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 737
Views: 63610

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

So I do agree that this is a really good time to be a thoughtful skeptic, particularly when you factor in the household net worth to income ratio. None of us are supposed to be this rich! :sharebeer I thought about mentioning net worth to income ratio in my OP. It's something I track regularly and ...
by market timer
Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 737
Views: 63610

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Do you think calendar dates matter? I ask because while yes since January 1 we’ve had a great run up the SP500 is still down ~110 points from it’s ATH only 7 months ago. What made you decide to not get out in September, but you are okay getting out today? I did not have much in equities in Septembe...
by market timer
Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 737
Views: 63610

That's enough for me in 2019

This is my top-calling post. Feel free to bump as we make new highs. We are less than a quarter into 2019 and it has already been incredible year for equities and bonds. My portfolio is up 15% YTD and crossed a nice round number on Friday. Thanks to a decade of low interest rates, I've never had a c...
by market timer
Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to realistically FIRE?
Replies: 310
Views: 21506

Re: How to realistically FIRE?

I'd feel pretty comfortable on 25 x $100K/year at age 50 (i.e., healthy discretionary budget that could be cut). I'd be worried if it's 25 x $35K/year (lean FIRE).
by market timer
Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What theory has changed, since you last took Economics/Finance courses in college?
Replies: 69
Views: 4659

Re: What theory has changed, since you last took Economics/Finance courses in college?

A few observations: 1. The Philips curve has not aged well. 2. The debate about the sign of monetary policy (do higher rates cause lower or higher inflation?) was asked but not answered conclusively. 3. Technology firms have become major employers of economists in recent years. 4. The research branc...
by market timer
Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What time do you start your day?
Replies: 69
Views: 2913

Re: What time do you start your day?

Wake up at 7:30.
Walk my son to school.
Have breakfast, read the news, take a shower.
Walk to work around 9:30.

Very happy with this schedule.
by market timer
Tue Mar 12, 2019 6:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Review of investment strategy (leverage+factors)
Replies: 21
Views: 1078

Re: Review of investment strategy (leverage+factors)

Wow, another thread about leveraging stocks and bonds.
by market timer
Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TD Ameritrade Money Market Options
Replies: 73
Views: 8138

Re: TD Ameritrade Money Market Options

From what I gather, Federated funds are not available as sweep accounts at TD Ameritrade. Has anyone looked into the possibility of writing software that automatically sweeps unused cash into a money market mutual fund? Seems like it would be relatively easy as far as algorithmic trading goes. Your...
by market timer
Fri Mar 08, 2019 8:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TD Ameritrade Money Market Options
Replies: 73
Views: 8138

Re: TD Ameritrade Money Market Options

From what I gather, Federated funds are not available as sweep accounts at TD Ameritrade. Has anyone looked into the possibility of writing software that automatically sweeps unused cash into a money market mutual fund? Seems like it would be relatively easy as far as algorithmic trading goes. Your...
by market timer
Thu Mar 07, 2019 8:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TD Ameritrade Money Market Options
Replies: 73
Views: 8138

Re: TD Ameritrade Money Market Options

From what I gather, Federated funds are not available as sweep accounts at TD Ameritrade. Has anyone looked into the possibility of writing software that automatically sweeps unused cash into a money market mutual fund? Seems like it would be relatively easy as far as algorithmic trading goes.
by market timer
Thu Mar 07, 2019 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young
Replies: 184
Views: 11833

Re: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young

Maybe you could explain as if to a small child, why maximizing the geometric mean is a bad idea??? I'm not an economist, so maybe it's just my basic ignorance of the code words here. This is what Samuelson would say to a small child: http://www.nccr-finrisk.uzh.ch/media/pdf/Samuelson_JBF1979.pdf Wo...
by market timer
Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young
Replies: 184
Views: 11833

Re: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young

Where we may be more likely to disagree is how many young people can go so far as leveraging their stock portfolio. I would put the percentage of young Americans who can reasonably leverage at less than 1%. No disagreement from me there. However, as I've noted previously, the advice in this book ha...
by market timer
Thu Mar 07, 2019 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young
Replies: 184
Views: 11833

Re: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young

pezblanco wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 10:10 am
Maybe you could explain as if to a small child, why maximizing the geometric mean is a bad idea??? I'm not an economist, so maybe it's just my basic ignorance of the code words here.
This is what Samuelson would say to a small child: http://www.nccr-finrisk.uzh.ch/media/pd ... BF1979.pdf
by market timer
Thu Mar 07, 2019 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young
Replies: 184
Views: 11833

Re: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young

BobK, I think we argued about this 9 years ago, so I am not optimistic about my chances of success at persuasion. I think I have written 27 articles rebutting this idea. It smacks of what I call the “Milton Friedman fallacy.” When that sage was a TIAA trustee before me, he believed that investing fo...
by market timer
Thu Mar 07, 2019 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young
Replies: 184
Views: 11833

Re: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young

305pelusa wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:27 pm
Is that about right?
Yes, that's correct
by market timer
Wed Mar 06, 2019 8:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career switch - leverage wage flexibility?
Replies: 6
Views: 740

Re: Career switch - leverage wage flexibility?

Look for a job in a startup. They are not as picky as established companies and don't pay as well. Also the interview process goes faster.

In an established company, oftentimes, the hiring manager doesn't really care about wage flexibility. They usually want the best person for their budget.
by market timer
Sun Mar 03, 2019 9:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Value of Vacation Experiences with Big Fam & Young Kids
Replies: 75
Views: 4289

Re: Value of Vacation Experiences with Big Fam & Young Kids

When we go as a family, we enjoy scenic resorts close to home with babysitting service. However, you don't have to travel as a family. I've taken my oldest son on several trips where it was just two of us. Those have also been a lot of fun.
by market timer
Sun Mar 03, 2019 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young
Replies: 184
Views: 11833

Re: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young

I've always been interested in leverage and have started a couple of threads on using the Kelley Criterion (aka the maximizing geometric mean). I've ordered the Ayres and Nalebuff book and look forward to reading it. Yes, I've read your analysis on the Kelly Criterion. To be completely honest (and ...
by market timer
Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what rate should an investor borrow to fund a Roth account?
Replies: 18
Views: 1714

Re: At what rate should an investor borrow to fund a Roth account?

There are two possible values, depending on whether you will be able to max out retirement accounts in the future. This is an important distinction to make. The calculation Caduceus and I made assumes the investor would like to contribute more to tax deferred accounts in the future, but is constrai...
by market timer
Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young
Replies: 184
Views: 11833

Re: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young

Regardless, the strategy does not just apply to youth. If you're 45 and will plan to work for another 15+ years, it's likely you would be recommended to use a much larger percentage of stocks than typically recommended to diversify effectively across time. Hopefully the number of 45 year olds with ...
by market timer
Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young
Replies: 184
Views: 11833

Re: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young

H-Town wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:04 pm
No offense but when I see trend like this (leverage to invest), things might head towards a crash. It’s like clockwork.
Yes, we are seeing a lot of interest in leverage and risk parity these days. Suggests cash might not be such a bad asset class to overweight.
by market timer
Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young
Replies: 184
Views: 11833

Re: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young

For small accounts (<$100K), the leveraged ETF approach makes sense. I believe HEDGEFUNDIE is doing quarterly rebalancing, though I'd recommend rebalancing based on deviations from target AA and with new contributions, rather than a time-based approach. Curious what deviation would target a rebalan...
by market timer
Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young
Replies: 184
Views: 11833

Re: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young

As for the futures, my limited understanding is that they offer much larger leverage than 2:1. They also seem to get traded outside of trading hours, which is not a plus in my book. That might get stressful. Do I have the correct understanding here? Yes, an individual futures contract gives much mo...
by market timer
Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What do you do to relax just after returning from work
Replies: 80
Views: 12029

Re: What do you do to relax just after returning from work

Pour some Scotch
Play a few games of blitz chess
Take a klonopin
Start watching a TV show until it's a struggle to keep my eyes open
by market timer
Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what rate should an investor borrow to fund a Roth account?
Replies: 18
Views: 1714

Re: At what rate should an investor borrow to fund a Roth account?

Caduceus wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:18 pm
Thank you. I've learned so much from this post as from all your other posts on the board. I've actually worked my way systematically through half the things you've written over my time here. :beer
:beer
by market timer
Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young
Replies: 184
Views: 11833

Re: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young

Two threads of note are: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs] and Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund? by Rob Bertram These two go for a more risk parity approach and leverage a stock & bond portfolio, whereas if I recall correctly Ayers just sugge...
by market timer
Fri Mar 01, 2019 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what rate should an investor borrow to fund a Roth account?
Replies: 18
Views: 1714

Re: At what rate should an investor borrow to fund a Roth account?

As long as the present value of the borrowing does not exceed $13.79 for every $100 in contribution, the investor will come out equal or ahead. At a 7% discount rate, this means even if he borrows the $100 at a 7% interest rate for two years, he will still come out ahead (present value of debt cost...
by market timer
Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When do you notice the compounding at work?
Replies: 118
Views: 22045

Re: When do you notice the compounding at work?

Has to be a combination of portfolio balance and interest rate. Earning around $100/day in interest would make me feel like my money was doing some heavy lifting. That's 3.7% interest on $1M or 7% interest on $540K.
by market timer
Wed Feb 27, 2019 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What vacation travel "extras" do you find worthwhile? (and why?)
Replies: 43
Views: 4507

Re: What vacation travel "extras" do you find worthwhile? (and why?)

5. Some things are worth fighting the crowds, and some aren't. And the good ones won't be the same for everyone. Expect some disappointments and just move on, but do give the highlight places a try. As examples, for myself, I found Stonehenge, the Mona Lisa, and the Sistine Chapel to be duds, but I...
by market timer
Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone own gold?
Replies: 78
Views: 7505

Re: Does anyone own gold?

Yes, I have 15% in a taxable account (IAU). I'm in a high tax bracket, so enjoy the fact it does not kick off any investment income. Will look for an opportunity in the future to tax gain harvest, likely during a sabbatical or early retirement.
by market timer
Mon Feb 25, 2019 7:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Nervous about locking up money in SPIA
Replies: 101
Views: 6341

Re: Nervous about locking up money in SPIA

A life income annuity is an insurance product and it is hard to calculate the rate of return, however a 15 year period certain annuity guarantees to pay out for 15 years if you are alive or dead, so it is easy to calculate rate of return. That rate is 2.7%. Less than you could get with a CD ladder....
by market timer
Sun Feb 24, 2019 7:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Must foreign tax credit be applied before child tax credit?
Replies: 5
Views: 500

Re: Must foreign tax credit be applied before child tax credit?

Thanks, all. Looks like the TaxAct software is correct then.
by market timer
Sun Feb 24, 2019 12:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Must foreign tax credit be applied before child tax credit?
Replies: 5
Views: 500

Must foreign tax credit be applied before child tax credit?

I was playing around with the TaxAct software and noticed that if I increase the amount of the foreign tax credit, the child tax credit is reduced. This is for a return with zero tax liability. I would have expected the child tax credit to remain the same, and the excess foreign tax credits to be ca...
by market timer
Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is anything "cheap" right now?
Replies: 49
Views: 4686

Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

I'm tilting to commodities, international stocks, and cash. A few years ago the largest flaw of the Schwab robo choices was said to be the cash allocation. I guess 2018 demonstrated there is still a place for it, or at least an environment in which cash beats stocks and bonds. I wish there was a "r...
by market timer
Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is anything "cheap" right now?
Replies: 49
Views: 4686

Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

I'm tilting to commodities, international stocks, and cash.
by market timer
Fri Feb 22, 2019 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When the Fed lowers interest rates by buying treasuries, what duration of treasuries does it buy?
Replies: 10
Views: 1375

Re: When the Fed lowers interest rates by buying treasuries, what duration of treasuries does it buy?

If that is correct, when would I know if things were normal? We'll know things are normal when the Fed tells us they are normal :) The real question is, how will the Fed know when things are normal? Practically speaking, what the Fed means by "normal" is that its balance sheet is stable. QE brought...
by market timer
Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Negotiating a pay raise
Replies: 24
Views: 1830

Re: Negotiating a pay raise

From what I've seen at large companies, the job is generally a good deal for the slackers and a good deal for the executives, who are really playing a completely different game from the rest of us. Everyone trying to climb the ladder is better served looking for work elsewhere or acquiring the skill...
by market timer
Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Negotiating a pay raise
Replies: 24
Views: 1830

Re: Negotiating a pay raise

Only time I ever received a decent raise was as a counter-offer. It was a 50% raise and promotion. Ever since then I regularly interview with other firms to make sure I'm not below market.
by market timer
Wed Feb 20, 2019 7:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) and Taxes
Replies: 37
Views: 12465

Re: Re:

You can try to submit a summary, and hope the IRS is only matching on totals, but if they are not, they can assess a negligence penalty for your failure to follow their very explicit instructions. These figures are immaterial to my return. What's the penalty for negligence? If I'm audited and it tu...
by market timer
Tue Feb 19, 2019 8:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite youtube channels?
Replies: 65
Views: 5681

Re: Favorite youtube channels?

ChessNetwork - chess lessons and commentary
by market timer
Tue Feb 19, 2019 8:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) and Taxes
Replies: 37
Views: 12465

Re: Re:

And finally in more detail than necessary, coinciding with the new reporting requirements, so you now have to fill multiply 8949 pages to comply. Why not report a single line summary entry? For example, Description: GLD trust mgmt expense sales for FY 2018 Date acquired: various Date sold: various ...
by market timer
Tue Feb 19, 2019 4:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When the Fed lowers interest rates by buying treasuries, what duration of treasuries does it buy?
Replies: 10
Views: 1375

Re: When the Fed lowers interest rates by buying treasuries, what duration of treasuries does it buy?

It used to be the case, back when I was in school, that the Fed bought short term bills to achieve its Fed Funds target rate. Nowadays, the Fed Funds rate target is maintained by the rate Federal Reserve banks pay to financial institutions on their excess reserves. Excess reserves used to earn no in...
by market timer
Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need career advice to get into data science field
Replies: 10
Views: 833

Re: Need career advice to get into data science field

Just start applying for jobs. I'm sure you can find a startup that will give you a Data Scientist title based on your current background. Data Science is such a broad term that the title is almost meaningless. There are many technical roles that are not called Data Scientist that would be a good fit...
by market timer
Sun Feb 17, 2019 8:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Life As A Negative Asset
Replies: 30
Views: 2583

Re: Life As A Negative Asset

I agree with this idea in concept, but would change the phrasing/framing. Rather than say I am worth $x, I find it more informative to think that I can spend $y/year (inflation adjusted) for the remainder of my life. To convert x to y, one option is to use a 4% SWR--I think this is most common. Alte...
by market timer
Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 4379
Views: 1144230

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Recently watched a few decent movies on HBO streaming:

Downsizing (2017)
Tangerine (2015)
Jeff, Who Lives at Home (2011)
by market timer
Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do I keep from becoming irrelevant
Replies: 57
Views: 7392

Re: How do I keep from becoming irrelevant

OP, I'm about your age and have similar concerns. For me, it is not just about becoming irrelevant, but the likelihood of having more experience and a better resume than the hiring manager. The older I get, the fewer jobs I'm eligible to take. Also, I moved away from doing technical work long ago, s...
by market timer
Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2338
Views: 414800

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Nice start to the year: +6.5%. Dialed back some exposure to commodities and to equities due to options expiring and gamma. Now at 55% equities, 15% gold, 15% oil, 10% LT bonds, 5% cash. Aside from the exact percentages, your AA looks eerily like the Permanent Portfolio. Are you done making big bets...