Search found 295 matches

by Liquid
Mon Feb 06, 2012 11:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Morgan Stanley?
Replies: 11
Views: 3394

Re: Morgan Stanley?

Run don't walk.
by Liquid
Mon Feb 06, 2012 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook IPO will be the biggest disaster in IPO history
Replies: 151
Views: 16330

Re: Facebook IPO will be the biggest disaster in IPO history

People keep comparing FB to Google and Apple, thereby assuming it will perform as well. The only problem is that, those two companies actually have real substance. They have something to offer, other than just being popular. FB is built on social habits... ie: trend. People thought MySpace was all ...
by Liquid
Mon Feb 06, 2012 11:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lifecycle Investing Leverage Strategy Using LEAPS - How To?
Replies: 137
Views: 17551

Re: Lifecycle Investing Leverage Strategy Using LEAPS - How

rrosenkoetter wrote:
P.S. Pretty much EVERY investing strategy that blew up in someone's face included leverage backtested well at one point.
by Liquid
Mon Feb 06, 2012 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Callan Table of Periodic Returns 1992-2011
Replies: 24
Views: 3318

Re: Callan Table of Periodic Returns 1992-2011

Love the table, thanks for sharing!
by Liquid
Mon Feb 06, 2012 10:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Low-risk investment comparable to farmland
Replies: 19
Views: 1824

Re: Low-risk investment comparable to farmland

Studies show that family wealth is quickly spent by successive generations, particularly those that 'don't understand alternative investments.'

The best property of this land seems to be its illiquidity or difficulty to unload.
by Liquid
Mon Feb 06, 2012 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lifecycle Investing Leverage Strategy Using LEAPS - How To?
Replies: 137
Views: 17551

Re: Lifecycle Investing Leverage Strategy Using LEAPS - How

Below is a link to William Bernstein's website, which is relevant to small cap investing and leveraged investing. As for EM, the volatility is greater than that of developed markets. But I'm not aware of evidence that the increased volatility of EM is rewarded with greater return. http://www.effici...
by Liquid
Mon Feb 06, 2012 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foreclosures at the high end increase
Replies: 6
Views: 681

Re: Foreclosures at the high end increase

"Others simply may have decided to stop making payments, thinking the home will take years to return to its former value." "The home was probably too expensive for us, but the main reason (we sold it) was the loss of equity," the consultant said. "It will never go back to that in the near future. We...
by Liquid
Mon Feb 06, 2012 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lifecycle Investing Leverage Strategy Using LEAPS - How To?
Replies: 137
Views: 17551

Re: Lifecycle Investing Leverage Strategy Using LEAPS - How

The longest time horizon for options is 3 years. The underlying asset being levered is stocks. However, the shortest time horizon for stocks is 5 years. Where does your 5yrs come from, stocks think nothing of trending down for 10-15yrs. If you think you will be ok with a five year span you are goin...
by Liquid
Mon Feb 06, 2012 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't saving 15% enough for retirement?
Replies: 65
Views: 9153

Re: Isn't saving 15% enough for retirement?

Being able to save 15% from your early 20's is quite an accomplishment. Since this reflects well on your discipline, I doubt you'll have a problem. I think there are studies showing the difference between starting early (as you did) and somewhat later (say, in your mid-30's). The results are pretty...
by Liquid
Sun Feb 05, 2012 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ok - what's with all the TIPS?
Replies: 35
Views: 3966

Re: ok - what's with all the TIPS?

Given the existence of TIPS, it's possible to get some of your inflation protection on the fixed-income side . I find it congenial to do that, and feel that it means I can reduce my equity allocation. This is all something I just sort of stumbled into and intuited, not something I calculated out, b...
by Liquid
Sun Feb 05, 2012 6:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: REIT Investments Get Better Tax Treatment
Replies: 20
Views: 5785

Re:

That is true. Anything held in a tax advantaged account is usually more favorable than taxable. The original point was if one places REITs in both taxable and tax advantaged. Would it not help build up the balances of both accounts. Yes, but placing REITS in tax-deferred and other stocks in taxable...
by Liquid
Sun Feb 05, 2012 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITS VS Direct Real Estate Investing?
Replies: 80
Views: 8105

Re: REITS VS Direct Real Estate Investing?

abuss368 wrote:Stick with Vanguard's REIT and International REIT funds and you will do fine.

Build up enough income from the funds over your lifetime, and you can fund retirement. I have seen this first hand.
Vanguards international real estate is not called REIT for a reason, they are not the same...
by Liquid
Sun Feb 05, 2012 3:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help! I am getting the itch to chase performance again
Replies: 28
Views: 2453

Re: Help! I am getting the itch to chase performance again

but I have proposed a nearly foolproof method that indicates change in momentum, so I am big disbeliever in chasing momentum upwards. : Hi, livesoft, I'm a fundamentally a contrarian. Do you mind sharing your 'foolproof method'? I'd be interested in using it as a reference point. Thanks This is not...
by Liquid
Sun Feb 05, 2012 12:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help! I am getting the itch to chase performance again
Replies: 28
Views: 2453

Re: Help! I am getting the itch to chase performance again

Wow. I don't get the itch to chase performance. Quite the contrary, I always get the itch to buy whatever asset class has been doing poorly. You know, reversion to mean, etc. Folks sometimes write about momentum, but I have proposed a nearly foolproof method that indicates change in momentum, so I ...
by Liquid
Sun Feb 05, 2012 12:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lifecycle Investing Leverage Strategy Using LEAPS - How To?
Replies: 137
Views: 17551

Re: Lifecycle Investing Leverage Strategy Using LEAPS - How

Nisiprius, I wouldn't recommend anyone holding a leveraged ETF more than one day. Daily rebalancing hurts leverage; you want as long as possible between rebalancing to make leverage work. That's why I advocate 3 year LEAPS. If one has a leverage ratio of 1.25 and has a maintenance margin requiremen...
by Liquid
Sun Feb 05, 2012 12:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lifecycle Investing Leverage Strategy Using LEAPS - How To?
Replies: 137
Views: 17551

Re: Lifecycle Investing Leverage Strategy Using LEAPS - How

I would add this. As I noted in another thread, in Ayres and Nalebuff's book, Lifecycle Investing , one of the vehicles they mention as a sensible way of implementing their strategy is the ProFunds UltraBull mutual fund, a 2X daily leveraged S&P fund. They mention it in their paper as well, where t...
by Liquid
Sun Feb 05, 2012 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Many Sad Stories of the Downwardly Mobile
Replies: 42
Views: 3266

Re: Many Sad Stories of the Downwardly Mobile

Conventional wisdom in this country is that massive home leverage is prudent... Well there is a little problem when risk shows up... :( The conventional wisdom in this country has, for a while, been that debt and massive leverage are prudent, or at least smart, at all levels. Taleb was talking abou...
by Liquid
Sun Feb 05, 2012 11:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help! I am getting the itch to chase performance again
Replies: 28
Views: 2453

Re: Help! I am getting the itch to chase performance again

Hi, its me again. I am 45 and married with no kids. I thought I made an excellent move last year when I bought the wellington fund with 100% of my portfolio Even though it is not all that tax efficient given that 75% of my 1.1M portfolio is in non tax advantaged accounts, I felt the risk return tra...
by Liquid
Sun Feb 05, 2012 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: residential real estate as an investment,
Replies: 78
Views: 10190

Re: residential real estate as an investment,

I read a generally positive sentiment to rental real estate in the responses here and I agree with them. Yes, it can be work but I believe it pays off. I loved the poster who described it as using OPM (other people's money) to build your nest egg. Good tenants and buying good properties do make a b...
by Liquid
Sun Feb 05, 2012 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Many Sad Stories of the Downwardly Mobile
Replies: 42
Views: 3266

Re: Many Sad Stories of the Downwardly Mobile

There's not enough information in that article to know what was going on in each case. From the video: "I had a 401k and saved here and there, we were doing fine." That does not sound like a strong financial plan to me. They appeared to be (over-)leveraged on their home, single income, minimal savi...
by Liquid
Sun Feb 05, 2012 10:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Many Sad Stories of the Downwardly Mobile
Replies: 42
Views: 3266

Re: Many Sad Stories of the Downwardly Mobile

Leverage is a killer of the middle class and wealthy alike.
by Liquid
Sun Feb 05, 2012 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll]Which is better: Lumpsum or DCA?
Replies: 63
Views: 3591

Re: [Poll]Which is better: Lumpsum or DCA?

Lumpsum at reasonable valuation, or lumpsum into the total world market. Otherwise DCA.
by Liquid
Sun Feb 05, 2012 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITS VS Direct Real Estate Investing?
Replies: 80
Views: 8105

Re: REITS VS Direct Real Estate Investing?

Direct investment is definitely the way to go. Due to the way the market works REITs are strongly influenced by large institutional players and end up being far more correlated with the stock market than they should be. In addition, where else can you use 5:1 leverage or more as a retail investor a...
by Liquid
Sun Feb 05, 2012 1:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Trade Small Cap Index for Value?
Replies: 7
Views: 948

Re: Trade Small Cap Index for Value?

I would not switch at this point. After you retire, might your marginal tax rate drop to 15%? If so, and if current tax code is extended (at least for people with your level of income), perhaps you could exchange some small into small value and pay 0% on the cap gains. In the meantime, take solace ...
by Liquid
Sun Feb 05, 2012 1:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Trade Small Cap Index for Value?
Replies: 7
Views: 948

Re: Trade Small Cap Index for Value?

I would not switch at this point. After you retire, might your marginal tax rate drop to 15%? If so, and if current tax code is extended (at least for people with your level of income), perhaps you could exchange some small into small value and pay 0% on the cap gains. In the meantime, take solace ...
by Liquid
Sat Feb 04, 2012 5:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Check Reorder Fee - Pay It or Look Elsewhere?
Replies: 33
Views: 3143

Re: Check Reorder Fee - Pay It or Look Elsewhere?

nisiprius wrote:
Here's one of the images I put on my checks. It is not a picture of me. Can anyone identify what it is a picture of?

Image
Lava.
by Liquid
Sat Feb 04, 2012 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller's P/E 10 data for foreign stocks
Replies: 6
Views: 2762

Re: Shiller's P/E 10 data for foreign stocks

At long last, I have found a source for the PE10 of Europe: http://mrmarket.eu/ . The figure for 2/2/12 is about 13. Hope this helps. It is difficult to track down. Even still, I would like to find free and regularly updated sources of the following: 1) PE10/CAPE/Shiller PE of different country ind...
by Liquid
Sat Feb 04, 2012 5:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: too much in international stock?
Replies: 32
Views: 3604

Re: too much in international stock?

I am in my late 40s. Re-assessing my asset allocation with the new year. current portfolio: 42% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Admiral Shares VBTLX 33% Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Admiral Shares VTSAX 20% Vanguard Total International Stock Index Admiral Shares VTIAX 5% Vanguard FTSE All-Wor...
by Liquid
Sat Feb 04, 2012 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: February 4, 2012 Peak High?
Replies: 47
Views: 4454

Re: Poll: February 4, 2012 Peak High?

Facebook with save California's budget, as well as California's luxury yacht market.
by Liquid
Sat Feb 04, 2012 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook IPO will be the biggest disaster in IPO history
Replies: 151
Views: 16330

Re: Facebook IPO will be the biggest disaster in IPO history

market timer wrote:
Image

While this one is the biggest bubble on earth.
Plenty of space left before this one pops, luckily food becomes ever cheaper.
by Liquid
Sat Feb 04, 2012 2:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Check Reorder Fee - Pay It or Look Elsewhere?
Replies: 33
Views: 3143

Re: Check Reorder Fee - Pay It or Look Elsewhere?

Meh, 10$ per year to support a bank you are otherwise happy with does not seem so bad.
by Liquid
Sat Feb 04, 2012 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how do I find out PE10 of foreign stock markets?
Replies: 80
Views: 23132

Re:

Hi Folks, I've been assembling links to PE10 and Long term valuation sources for Equities, property & I would like to add other asset classes in time. Below is what I have to date. If anyone can add new sources I'd greatly appreciate it: CAPE PE 10 Data and Discussion for Various Markets Shiller S&...
by Liquid
Sat Feb 04, 2012 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: February 4, 2012 Peak High?
Replies: 47
Views: 4454

Re: Poll: February 4, 2012 Peak High?

The market has got more to give if Europe recovers.
by Liquid
Sat Feb 04, 2012 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Hypothetical windfall - what would you do?
Replies: 12
Views: 1637

Re: Hypothetical windfall - what would you do?

I would invest half of it in low risk mutual funds and then take the other half over to my friend Asadulah who works in securities... :D
by Liquid
Sat Feb 04, 2012 10:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anybody else uneasy with the recent gains?
Replies: 36
Views: 2992

Re: Anybody else uneasy with the recent gains?

Love returns, dislike high valuations.
by Liquid
Fri Feb 03, 2012 10:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Stable Value Fund: Do I keep it or sell it?
Replies: 7
Views: 1014

Re: Stable Value Fund: Do I keep it or sell it?

This stable value fund and I have been a lot of miles together. The truth is, I live a pretty quiet life so a SV fund fits me like a glove! :P Given historically low interest rates and the implications on bonds, which I am sure you are aware, there are probably some bumpy miles ahead. A criteria yo...
by Liquid
Fri Feb 03, 2012 10:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I stop contributing past my 401K match??
Replies: 15
Views: 2981

Re: Should I stop contributing past my 401K match??

Sounds like it is still worth it despite the fees, max it.
by Liquid
Fri Feb 03, 2012 9:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Stable Value Fund: Do I keep it or sell it?
Replies: 7
Views: 1014

Re: Stable Value Fund: Do I keep it or sell it?

How do you get emotional about a stable value fund, sounds like watching paint dry.
by Liquid
Fri Feb 03, 2012 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's a Stock Picker's Market (or not)
Replies: 6
Views: 643

Re: It's a Stock Picker's Market (or not)

"Since the financial crisis began to get a grip at the start of 2008, investors have pulled more than $400 billion from U.S. equity funds, and the figure keeps growing, with $7 billion withdrawn so far this year, according to the Investment Company Institute." That is a good contrarian sign, but th...
by Liquid
Fri Feb 03, 2012 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's a Stock Picker's Market (or not)
Replies: 6
Views: 643

Re: It's a Stock Picker's Market (or not)

Financial porn, zzzzzz
by Liquid
Fri Feb 03, 2012 9:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: More aggressive
Replies: 39
Views: 3956

Re: More aggressive

If I'm not making reasonable returns (>8%) then I have no interest being in the stock market. You know where people quote the stock market has averaged around 10% a year since 1926?? It doesn't give you 10% every year... So far, it moves very much in cycles... like DECADES of poor returns followed ...
by Liquid
Fri Feb 03, 2012 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation-based market timing with PE10 can improve returns?
Replies: 696
Views: 128337

Re: Valuation-based market timing with PE10 can improve retu

Valuation matters, but for many is probably playing with fire.
by Liquid
Fri Feb 03, 2012 9:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Alternative Income Streams
Replies: 7
Views: 904

Re: Alternative Income Streams

I bet he worked at J.T. Marlin.
by Liquid
Fri Feb 03, 2012 7:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lifecycle Investing Leverage Strategy Using LEAPS - How To?
Replies: 137
Views: 17551

Re: Lifecycle Investing Leverage Strategy Using LEAPS - How

Speculation that S&P 500 will be up over a 3yr period, or you "lose everything," seems like a very very bad idea given market history. Let us know how this works out and good luck to you.
by Liquid
Fri Feb 03, 2012 7:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I'm Ready to Start a New Investing Chapter
Replies: 16
Views: 1899

Re: I'm Ready to Start a New Investing Chapter

Big improvement over individual stocks, seems like a reasonable plan to me.
by Liquid
Fri Feb 03, 2012 6:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Foreign Tax Credit - worth the effort?
Replies: 20
Views: 2416

Re: Foreign Tax Credit - worth the effort?

ej76az wrote:you might want to read this post and the subsequent two posts:
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 2#p1279413
Placing foreign in taxable might not make sense any more.
This is not a constant, foreign yields are higher because of current valuation.
by Liquid
Fri Feb 03, 2012 5:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Worst crash than before? Than what? Bonds, cash, tres?
Replies: 14
Views: 1753

Re: Worst crash than before? Than what? Bonds, cash, tres?

After the apocalypse you will have other more pressing concerns.