Search found 994 matches

by FillorKill
Wed Aug 12, 2015 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLH VTIAX Market Timing question
Replies: 10
Views: 1014

Re: TLH VTIAX Market Timing question

Crow Hunter wrote:Anyone care to make any predictions?

Like The529guy, I predict a wash sale. If you need an ETF to TLH into then use VEU.
by FillorKill
Wed Aug 12, 2015 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can I tax loss harvest? Unsure about wash sale.
Replies: 4
Views: 619

Re: Can I tax loss harvest? Unsure about wash sale.

As long as you sell all of the lots purchased in the last 30 days and don't repurchase any share class of the same funds within the next 30 days then you can TLH while avoiding a wash sale.

Exchanging those VTIAX lots into VFWAX and the VLCAX lots into VFIAX will do the job.
by FillorKill
Tue Aug 11, 2015 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CDs vs. treasury bonds
Replies: 101
Views: 10954

Re: CDs vs. treasury bonds

Artsdoctor wrote:Usually, not always, you'll get a better YTM if you buy on the secondary market, even when you factor in the commission.

Interesting. Thanks for the tip.
by FillorKill
Tue Aug 11, 2015 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CDs vs. treasury bonds
Replies: 101
Views: 10954

Re: CDs vs. treasury bonds

Does anyone here have experience with the typical bid / ask spread of 10 year CDs on Vanguard Brokerage Services? They have a 10 year Goldman Sach's CD yielding 3.05%. I've purchased brokered CDs through VBS. If you purchase new issues you pay par / 100.00. I assume the CD you're looking at is the ...
by FillorKill
Mon Aug 10, 2015 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting Argument in Favor of Roth
Replies: 53
Views: 7671

Re: Interesting Argument in Favor of Roth

"If you'll pay 33% on a conversion, for example, but expect a 25% tax rate during retirement, you can still come out ahead with the conversion if you keep the account for another fifteen years or so ... [however], a Roth's advantages will rarely overcome that big 10-point gap between the 15% r...
by FillorKill
Thu Aug 06, 2015 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Admiral Shares
Replies: 13
Views: 2477

Re: Vanguard Admiral Shares

Any guesses what will happen from here? Possibly nothing. I recharacterized my 2013 IRA contribution and when they moved the applicable shares from one IRA to another they transferred Admiral shares. I assumed they'd convert them back at some point but they never have. So, for more than a year I've...
by FillorKill
Tue Aug 04, 2015 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 271
Views: 20582

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

The Central Limit Theorem. Everybody should learn it. I even got to pick up a girl in a bar as a college student solely because I knew the Central Limit Theorem. Which was great, because I sure didn't know much about girls. It has countless uses. With that intro, I was waiting for you get into fat ...
by FillorKill
Tue Aug 04, 2015 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel on Chinese Stock Markets
Replies: 18
Views: 2881

Re: Malkiel on Chinese Stock Markets

I live in the US and have really no choice but to invest here. Of the deep risks in investing described elsewhere, confiscation in the US is probably going to occur only in the form of taxation. Same here. I'm not trying to compare the level of risk involved for a US investor investing in China to ...
by FillorKill
Tue Aug 04, 2015 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel on Chinese Stock Markets
Replies: 18
Views: 2881

Re: Malkiel on Chinese Stock Markets

I am way too timid for that, and would find it hard to invest heavily in a market which is manipulated by the government on such a large scale. To me, that starts to approach Deep Risk territory. Do you invest in US equity? Exactly where do you draw the line? Seems that we share the 'by any means n...
by FillorKill
Sun Aug 02, 2015 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Houston, we have a problem... [Small cap historical performance]
Replies: 57
Views: 6390

Re: Houston, we have a problem...

privatefarmer wrote:Thanks. But that still doesn't answer why the actual index funds (Vang small cap vs vanguard S/P 500) differ from what the "historical data" says.


NAESX hasn't always been an index fund....
by FillorKill
Sun Aug 02, 2015 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Could John Bogle Be Right About International Stock?
Replies: 222
Views: 31050

Re: Could John Bogle Be Right About International Stock?

Here's the data presented by GMO. Perhaps someone can enlighten me. In the rightmost graph, they show the annualized volatility of EAFE as declining from about 15% at 2 years beginning in 1990 to less than 5% at 10 years. This is nuts. The actual annualized volatility of EAFE in US$ is 25% at 2 yea...
by FillorKill
Fri Jul 31, 2015 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Could John Bogle Be Right About International Stock?
Replies: 222
Views: 31050

Re: Could John Bogle Be Right About International Stock?

Browser wrote:There's a lot of room for disagreement here. A complex issue, but GMO certainly doesn't have the last word on it.

Completely agree. I hope the conversation continues. I prefer opinions that don't agree with my own.
by FillorKill
Fri Jul 31, 2015 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone hold Long Term Bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 4243

Re: Anyone hold Long Term Bonds?

How are the weightings in TBM determined then? I know it tracks some index but how are those index weightings determined? m Scroll down to the alternative weight section and select the US Agg Float Adjusted Index Guide What am I missing? This description confirmed my prior: You asked: "How are...
by FillorKill
Fri Jul 31, 2015 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone hold Long Term Bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 4243

Re: Anyone hold Long Term Bonds?

rca1824 wrote:How are the weightings in TBM determined then? I know it tracks some index but how are those index weightings determined?

https://index.barcap.com/Home/Guides_and_Factsheets

Scroll down to the alternative weight section and select the US Agg Float Adjusted Index Guide
by FillorKill
Fri Jul 31, 2015 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Could John Bogle Be Right About International Stock?
Replies: 222
Views: 31050

Re: Could John Bogle Be Right About International Stock?

When you buy shares of a foreign stock or fund, you're really making two trades. One trade is buying the foreign currency with your own currency, and the other trade is buying the foreign stocks. I think your analysis in this thread may be oversimplifying/misstating the portfolio effects on a US in...
by FillorKill
Thu Jul 30, 2015 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing Manages Risk - How is Return Affected?
Replies: 2
Views: 321

Re: Rebalancing Manages Risk - How is Return Affected?

In actual experience, isn't it quite possible that rebalancing could either increase or decrease returns depending on the specifics of each case? Sure. You can end up with a positive or negative diversification return (the geometric mean return across the rebalanced portfolio exceeds (or fails to) ...
by FillorKill
Thu Jul 30, 2015 7:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Could John Bogle Be Right About International Stock?
Replies: 222
Views: 31050

Re: Could John Bogle Be Right About International Stock?

abuss368 wrote:
jhfenton wrote:U.S. equities could outperform international for the next 20 years, and he would still have been wrong.


Why? Could you provide more explanation?


Probably suggesting this: outcome v strategy. ex-ante (strategy) he's wrong, ex-post he may be "right" (outcome).
by FillorKill
Wed Jul 29, 2015 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 271
Views: 20582

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

Backtesting whole periods from history shows that 100% TSM always beats any portfolio with any TBM if you wait long enough (generally 25 years). Even in retirement, as long as you're drawing down a small enough percentage, 100% TSM is the way to go, or perhaps 80% at the most conservative end. Yet ...
by FillorKill
Thu Jul 23, 2015 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Danger of higher-yielding bond funds
Replies: 62
Views: 5888

Re: The Danger of higher-yielding bond funds

simply swapping REIT for HY results in a portfolio that is clearly superior. That WAS clearly superior. Is/will be are not especially forecastable. Of course. Hence my 'historical adjustment' phrase. I didn't establish the initial parameters of those backtesting trials - although I did expand on th...
by FillorKill
Wed Jul 22, 2015 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Danger of higher-yielding bond funds
Replies: 62
Views: 5888

Re: The Danger of higher-yielding bond funds

Of course, the point of running an optimization based on Sharpe is not to select one's final allocation. It's just to demonstrate that HY would be a more efficient addition to a US SCV/Treasury portfolio than International stocks. HY has a better Sharpe and lower correlation to US equities so the r...
by FillorKill
Tue Jul 21, 2015 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 202
Views: 16236

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

Here's a forecast of low returns going forward from March 16, 2012 m Wade Pfau has been warning retirees of low expected returns since 2011. Wade Pfau. 2011. “Can We Predict the Sustainable Withdrawal Rate for New Retirees?” Journal of Financial Planning Along those same lines, here's what RA was s...
by FillorKill
Tue Jul 21, 2015 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Danger of higher-yielding bond funds
Replies: 62
Views: 5888

Re: The Danger of higher-yielding bond funds

Interesting... What portfolio do you get when you optimize for best Sharpe with an asset mix that includes Intermediate Treasury, DFA ISV, DFA SV, VG EM, VG HY ? 21% High Yield 6% SCV 73% Intermediate Treasury 0% ISV 0% EM m My takeaway is that the Larry Portfolio could be improved with an allocati...
by FillorKill
Thu Jul 16, 2015 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 20 yr review of Mel's Unloved Midcaps
Replies: 19
Views: 3642

Re: 20 yr review of Mel's Unloved Midcaps

RNJ wrote:With respect to the issues mentioned about VG's index, the better comparison is...


On a related note, based on the index du jour for the VG products, the current best comparisons for the 400 series would be the VG 'small' VB/VBR, etc. The size loading is much more similar.
by FillorKill
Thu Jul 16, 2015 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 20 yr review of Mel's Unloved Midcaps
Replies: 19
Views: 3642

Re: 20 yr review of Mel's Unloved Midcaps

Spent way too much time trying to copy and paste an image (M* screenshot). I don't know how to do that either but didn't bother trying - I know my technical abilities are limited If you look at the growth of the three aforementioned ETFs on M*, beginning with VOE's date of inception (8/1/06, I beli...
by FillorKill
Thu Jul 16, 2015 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 20 yr review of Mel's Unloved Midcaps
Replies: 19
Views: 3642

Re: 20 yr review of Mel's Unloved Midcaps

Grammatical issues aside, since inception MDY outperformed both VOE (Vanguard's Mid Value offering) as well as it's "sister" value offering, MDYV. Comparing MDY to VG Mid Cap (VIMSX) from inception, 05/21/1998 finds that VIMSX has outperformed. Comparing MDYV to VG Mid Cap Value (VMVIX) f...
by FillorKill
Tue Jul 14, 2015 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend stock investing or Total Return?
Replies: 41
Views: 4043

Re: Dividend stock investing or Total Return?

To achieve this I want to have 50-100x my expenses in equities... then indeed price movements don't really matter, except when you buy. Never sell. If the market turns your 100X expenses in equity into 45X expenses in equity you may feel differently about price movements. On the bright side you cou...
by FillorKill
Tue Jul 14, 2015 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Summer Cleaning - Time to Rethink Allocations?
Replies: 31
Views: 3454

Re: Summer Cleaning - Time to Rethink Allocations?

MrChicken wrote: 0% international - recently sold off international funds/ETF's)

Cash 20% (after selling off International ETF's this past week)


Why did you do that? I'm suspicious about your ability to tolerate an 80/20 AA. You sure about that?
by FillorKill
Tue Jul 14, 2015 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whatever happened to the advocates of CDs vs Bonds?
Replies: 58
Views: 9780

Re: Whatever happened to the advocates of CDs vs Bonds?

ogd wrote:Thing is, TBM "cheated" by benefitting from a relatively steep yield curve....

...and credit risk...
by FillorKill
Wed Jul 08, 2015 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Distribution question. Can this forum provide better customer service than Vangard!?
Replies: 25
Views: 2346

Re: Distribution question. Can this forum provide better customer service than Vangard!?

What are the chances that you are looking at your cost basis in the fund which was adjusted down due to you taking (vice reinvesting) the dividend?
by FillorKill
Fri Apr 24, 2015 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PXSV has changed indexes
Replies: 131
Views: 18333

Re: PXSV has changed indexes

Looks like then new Pure Value index is about as bad as everyone was expecting. I'm leanings towards going back to Vanguard's small value fund as my core small value holding. It has (a) lower expenses and (b) higher value loadings than S&P 600 Value and Russell Fundamental Small Cap. What's eve...
by FillorKill
Thu Apr 16, 2015 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone in VFSVX? Why?
Replies: 72
Views: 13968

Re: Anyone in VFSVX? Why?

I think we're getting closer to agreeing on exactly what we agree to disagree on. This is why Vanguard executes MF share exchanges to ETF shares through a clerical transaction. The change is not to the basket of underlying securities but only to the "wrapper" of the share class. Perhaps y...
by FillorKill
Thu Apr 16, 2015 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone in VFSVX? Why?
Replies: 72
Views: 13968

Re: Anyone in VFSVX? Why?

Assuming, arguendo, that there was a wrong done to investor B (livesoft), then that wrong occurred at the hands of the counter-party to the ETF transaction not VG. You have have to seek your remedy there. Agree to disagree. livesoft has no claim either way. The harm was to the fund shareholders oth...
by FillorKill
Thu Apr 16, 2015 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone in VFSVX? Why?
Replies: 72
Views: 13968

Re: Anyone in VFSVX? Why?

Yes, your math is 100% correct. It is possible to either make a small profit or a small loss on the transaction due to small but measurable market inefficiencies. Ironically, taking advantage of such inefficiencies is what keeps the inefficiencies small, the markets functioning effectively, and rep...
by FillorKill
Thu Apr 16, 2015 7:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone in VFSVX? Why?
Replies: 72
Views: 13968

Re: Anyone in VFSVX? Why?

I guess I’m a hypocrite for revisiting this topic. I can live with that. For the benefit of tarnation and Majormajor78 I am going to briefly demonstrate the inequity produced by the policy. Also, tarnation, my proposal was to exchange FMV (closing NAV is FMV for the MF share class and closing price ...
by FillorKill
Mon Apr 13, 2015 7:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone in VFSVX? Why?
Replies: 72
Views: 13968

Re: Anyone in VFSVX? Why?

I'll take one more pass at this and then I'm going to leave it to anyone that reads it to either understand, misunderstand, agree, or disagee but this will be it. For David - this has nothing to do with assembling a creation unit - that is a completely separate topic and the assembler is executing a...
by FillorKill
Sat Apr 11, 2015 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone in VFSVX? Why?
Replies: 72
Views: 13968

Re: Anyone in VFSVX? Why?

I didn't belive this was true so I called my rep at vanguard and they did confirm that the converson is at NAV. Frankly that's dubious. This is probably uncharted legal territory. Ask yourself how many investment companies have a dual share class structure and can therefore even perform this transa...
by FillorKill
Sat Apr 11, 2015 7:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone in VFSVX? Why?
Replies: 72
Views: 13968

Re: Anyone in VFSVX? Why?

But, I had sort of assumed mutual fund shares converting to ETF would be done at NAV. But are you saying that if VSS sells at a 1% premium over VFSVX, then I'm about to lose 1% during the conversion? There is no loss on a conversion, because nothing changes hands. X shares of VFSVX always converts ...
by FillorKill
Fri Apr 10, 2015 6:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone in VFSVX? Why?
Replies: 72
Views: 13968

Re: Anyone in VFSVX? Why?

But, I had sort of assumed mutual fund shares converting to ETF would be done at NAV. But are you saying that if VSS sells at a 1% premium over VFSVX, then I'm about to lose 1% during the conversion? There is no loss on a conversion, because nothing changes hands. X shares of VFSVX always converts ...
by FillorKill
Thu Apr 09, 2015 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SC international: Swap GWX for VSS?
Replies: 5
Views: 603

Re: SC international: Swap GWX for VSS?

And the higher premium? A few months ago I had the same dilemma - I needed to buy VSS but the premium was unusually high - around 1% of NAV. I decided to take a position in the MF share class instead. The ER difference at the time was around .2 so I literally had years before the higher ER of the M...
by FillorKill
Thu Apr 09, 2015 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap premium
Replies: 32
Views: 3446

Re: Small cap premium

The value premium is thought to exploit the way investors overestimate risk - I was buying Europe when valuations were on the floor because I knew I'd want to hold more Europe at some point, and so I bought on Sale .. Most the world is buying Europe now, because they had to wait for good news to co...
by FillorKill
Thu Apr 09, 2015 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taking profits and losses, When?
Replies: 9
Views: 1518

Re: Taking profits and losses, When?

Qmavam wrote: My concern is, at some point in time my favorite Index fund guru will send a
Alert Notification to sell


I would like more information about the guru please.
by FillorKill
Wed Apr 08, 2015 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax paid to wrong state: What recourse?
Replies: 15
Views: 2947

Re: Tax paid to wrong state: What recourse?

As a 2015 full year resident of state B I don't think you have any reason to suspect that MD (assuming that is state A) has any claim on your payment. I believe PL 104-94 stopped that kind of thing: "On Jan. 10, 1996, Congress enacted the Pension Source Tax Act of 1996 (P.L. 104-94). This law s...
by FillorKill
Wed Apr 08, 2015 7:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax paid to wrong state: What recourse?
Replies: 15
Views: 2947

Re: Tax paid to wrong state: What recourse?

No one would confuse me with Alan S. However, I believe the only way you can get that back will be to file a 2015 non resident tax return in state A which would indicate that no 2015 income is state A income. So: - Not that I know of - 2015 non resident tax return - Whatever forms are required to fi...
by FillorKill
Wed Apr 08, 2015 6:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The mechanics of online brokerages and EFT ownership - Risk
Replies: 15
Views: 1989

Re: The mechanics of online brokerages and EFT ownership - R

You would be protected as a non US citizen if you use a SIPC member institution. I know nothing about the protection available in non US brokerages. Sorry.
by FillorKill
Fri Apr 03, 2015 7:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does one invest without rebalancing?
Replies: 17
Views: 2140

Re: How does one invest without rebalancing?

livesoft wrote:Oh, the horror of being off by several tenths of a percent! It's enough to make one sick to their stomach and prevent one from sleeping well at night.


Gee, thanks. My sarcasm detector just exploded. How am I supposed to read these threads without it?
by FillorKill
Thu Mar 26, 2015 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [TSP G Fund Possible Changes]
Replies: 21
Views: 1761

Re: G Fund Changes

Adjusting the method of interest calculation for the G fund is a cost-saving suggestion, which is contained in a budget committee report, which accompanied the House GOP fiscal 2016 budget proposal. The Senate version contains nothing similar. I think you'll want to take a wait-and-see attitude befo...
by FillorKill
Tue Dec 23, 2014 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLH: Use ETF to gauge fund close?
Replies: 7
Views: 932

Re: TLH: Use ETF to gauge fund close?

Another issue is to watch the NAV move of the ETF v the price move as a big change in the premium or discount can give you the impression the MF share class would move in a similar way / with similar magnitude but may not. Thus you get a false impression of the MF NAV close but were really just wat...
by FillorKill
Mon Dec 22, 2014 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLH: Use ETF to gauge fund close?
Replies: 7
Views: 932

Re: TLH: Use ETF to gauge fund close?

BE CAREFUL! Today many of Vanguard's ETFs went ex-dividend, so if there is a price drop today, it may not be from market action. Yeah. Depending on your data source you can be getting mixed information. VG accounts for the dividend in their reported pricing while, say, Morningstar does not. So you ...
by FillorKill
Mon Dec 22, 2014 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your 2015 Financial Goals?
Replies: 102
Views: 10991

Re: What are your 2015 Financial Goals?

Don't risk money I'd like to keep to make money I don't need.