Search found 220 matches

by LittleD
Sat Nov 16, 2013 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 49438

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

P/E 10 is a function of price, earnings, and time. The fact of time - in this case ten years, does not make it "market timing." In fact, the point of ten years is to ensure it is a long term measure of relative valuations and not a basis for short term timing. So why use P/10 at all? Well, you don'...
by LittleD
Fri Nov 15, 2013 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 49438

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

The draw of the P/E 10, like religion, is that it gives the illusion of order in a random world. Predictability provides great emotional comfort. Instead of watching helplessly as markets move, we can nod knowingly and make active adjustments to our portfolios. The problem is that while market move...
by LittleD
Fri Nov 15, 2013 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 49438

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

Also, we assume that going up to a PE level from 2000 is a best-case scenario. But what if the US market does something like a Japan in the 80's. What would the Japan PE10 been up to in 1989? I knew it once but not now. Pe1 was approximately 90, so again high valuations predicted horrible returns. ...
by LittleD
Thu Nov 14, 2013 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 49438

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

...Some like to look at the markets and identify where you might want to take less risk. You can always add treasuries or EM and ride out the typhoon... :shock: It really bothers me how much people have been equating "rebalancing" into EMs as a safety measure. I'm totally on board with people who w...
by LittleD
Thu Nov 14, 2013 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 49438

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

No worries, Mates!!! As Mel says...Lots of roads to Dublin!!! If you don't subscribe to any of the tenets of the PE/10 or the PE/10 in context of PE/1 & ITT (Intermediate Term Treasuries) then just keep to your plan and stay fully invested, diversified and rebalance once in a while. Some like to loo...
by LittleD
Thu Nov 14, 2013 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better Than Total Stock/Total Intern??
Replies: 10
Views: 2129

Re: Better Than Total Stock/Total Intern??

I believe this table was an attempt to show what such a portfolio might experience versus a standard 3 fund portfolio. Not all inclusive but does attempt to answer what global diversification might provide going into an unknown and unknowable future... ==================================== .............
by LittleD
Thu Nov 14, 2013 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 49438

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

You can find the PE/10 for the SP500 because it is a readily available index and Shiller calculates the inflation adjusted earnings over time. I think there is probably some individual country PE/10 information that could be evaluated but for an International or EM index with allocation weights not ...
by LittleD
Thu Nov 14, 2013 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 49438

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

No doubt it you have a great crystal ball then use that. I don't and can't forecast
stock prices or interest rates well so I would choose the mechanical threshold
methodology he uses and let it go at that. Besides, fishing is much more fun!!!
by LittleD
Thu Nov 14, 2013 7:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better Than Total Stock/Total Intern??
Replies: 10
Views: 2129

Re: Better Than Total Stock/Total Intern??

Oh, and if you want to add a bit of EM to the TREVH UB&H portfolio you might just want to look at something like this: 15% FNDB Total US Market Index Value Tilted (Fundamental or Smart Beta) 15% FNDA US Small Cap Index Value Tilted (Fundamental or Smart Beta) 12.5% FNDF International Large Cap Index...
by LittleD
Thu Nov 14, 2013 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 49438

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

I don't think it's a big negative to use something like PE/10 to rebalance your portfolio and it probably does reduce risk when it's time to reduce risk. The only caveat I would make is that you can't look at just PE/10 in a vacuum. You would normally put PE/10 in context to say the 10yr treasury yi...
by LittleD
Thu Nov 14, 2013 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better Than Total Stock/Total Intern??
Replies: 10
Views: 2129

Re: Better Than Total Stock/Total Intern??

If you travel to the M* portfolio section and compare - FNDA with SCHA FNDC with SCHC You will quickly notice that the fundamental/smart beta index's are much more valuey than the strait blend funds but you are right that M* does classify them as blend. I believe that the smaller micro cap stocks be...
by LittleD
Wed Nov 13, 2013 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better Than Total Stock/Total Intern??
Replies: 10
Views: 2129

Re: Better Than Total Stock/Total Intern??

Interesting article from Paul Merriman on Marketwatch today http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-vanguard-fund-strategy-to-double-your-nest-egg-2013-11-13?link=MW_popular Caveat: These ETF's are new but the mutual fund versions have been around for awhile... If you want to try something like Trev H's...
by LittleD
Mon Nov 11, 2013 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many funds do you have in your portfolio?
Replies: 96
Views: 8891

Re: How many funds do you have in your portfolio?

Following the TREV H Ultimate Buy & Hold Portfolio with the introduction of the Schwab Fundamental ETF indexes... 12.5% FNDA Small Cap with Value Tilt 12.5% FNDB Total Market with Value Tilt 12.5% FNDC International Small with Value Tilt 12.5% FNDF International Large with Value Tilt 25% SCHO Schwab...
by LittleD
Sat Dec 03, 2011 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does "left the workforce" mean?
Replies: 82
Views: 6792

Re: What does "left the workforce" mean?

Yes...Have you looked at the job adds posted by Manpower lately. There are over 2 million jobs posted online. They may not be in your town but how about your state. There are jobs to be had for those really wanting to work. Now if you're just looking for $8 an hour to stand around and do nothing, I ...
by LittleD
Sat Dec 03, 2011 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does "left the workforce" mean?
Replies: 82
Views: 6792

Re: What does "left the workforce" mean?

[ political comment removed by Mod ] Several have postulated that most of the unemployed won't consider $8 an hour jobs that are beneath their dignity. Bunk... If you're single, what's wrong with obtaining an $8 an hour day job and an $8 an hour evening job.... That's $8 an hour for 16 hours per day...
by LittleD
Fri Nov 04, 2011 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Value Investing
Replies: 27
Views: 2209

Re: Thoughts on Value Investing

So if you like to index and you want to look at funds that have a definite value "tilt", you might want to take a look at these 5 funds offered by Schwab: SFNLX Schwab Fundamental Large US Stock Index .35 basis expense ratio SFSNX Schwab Fundamental Small & Med Stock Index .35 basis expense ratio SF...
by LittleD
Wed Oct 05, 2011 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Standard" Source for Stock Valuations
Replies: 7
Views: 622

I don't know if anyone just uses one standard...

Many on the board use Shiller's P/E as a proxy even though there are some problems with using a center point of the trend on 5 yr's ago history. I tend to use the Crestmont P/E from Crestmont Research. You could also look into the fine work of Doug Short who presents several views of S&P valuation.
by LittleD
Sun Jul 31, 2011 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing -- What experts say.
Replies: 27
Views: 7038

There are strategies to control risk...

For a good alternative point of view on market timing visit Financial adviser Paul Merriman's web site. Paul handles both buy and hold DFA accounts (1.1 billion) and market timing (.2 billlion). Paul maintains that some investors cannot bear to hold during severe market declines and need a mechanic...
by LittleD
Sun Jul 31, 2011 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing -- What experts say.
Replies: 27
Views: 7038

Not complicated at all

From what I have read, there is very little evidence that one can predict where the stock market will be in 3-4 years. However, the further out one gets, the more that market timing becomes acceptable. Jack Bogle has made 10 year market predictions. IIRC, William Bernstein thinks one can make 20 ye...
by LittleD
Sun Jul 31, 2011 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Living Off the Dividends (and Interest)"
Replies: 61
Views: 12341

Re: few thoughts

The live off interest and dividends only of course will mean you never run out of money. But IMO it is a pretty foolish approach because no one lives forever. Think about 99 year old who is still living off of only dividends and interest. By choosing such a strategy you are reducing your standard o...