Search found 220 matches

by LittleD
Tue Jul 08, 2014 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 755
Views: 375956

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

Not trying to quibble but you can look at 40 annual returns vs market vs other portfolios and you can look at 480 monthly returns vs market vs other portfolios to get a feel for how any portfolio might perform and that many observations would be statistically significant. Will the UBH outperform in ...
by LittleD
Mon Jun 09, 2014 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Lazy Portfolio: "Trinity Portfolio"
Replies: 28
Views: 3160

Re: New Lazy Portfolio: "Trinity Portfolio"

I know...I know...
I voted no too! The portfolio is just not "Lazy" enough for me.
Does not add enough CAGR to justify the additional funds and additional volatility.

Stick with Bogle and keep it simple!!! Stay simple my friend!
by LittleD
Sun Apr 20, 2014 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does this strategy invite unnecessary risk?
Replies: 42
Views: 4699

Re: Does this strategy invite unnecessary risk?

Is it a bit riskier? slightly. both are more risky than the norm. But with risk come potential greater rewards. US small caps have had a great run lately and emerging markets have not. A slight tilt toward either is not a very great risk or a very great benefit. According to his website and his pdf...
by LittleD
Sun Apr 20, 2014 5:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does this strategy invite unnecessary risk?
Replies: 42
Views: 4699

Re: Does this strategy invite unnecessary risk?

I too like Paul Merriman's portfolio ideas and his podcasts are just great in that he teaches and does not try and sell anything. He is retired and just trying to help those looking for portfolio ideas and strategies. I would also offer those interested to search for TREV-H's ultimate Buy and Hold p...
by LittleD
Wed Apr 16, 2014 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 755
Views: 375956

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

Merriman has just published a series of articles on Marketwatch http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bonds-buy-sell-or-hold-2014-03-26 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/6-steps-to-the-ultimate-retirement-portfolio-2014-04-09 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/retirement-savers-fine-tune-your-asset-allocat...
by LittleD
Wed Apr 09, 2014 7:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BH Greatest Hits: PE10 predictive power
Replies: 39
Views: 7035

Re: BH Greatest Hits: PE10 predicitive power

Not many here who use CAPE PE/10 go 100% to cash. Most that I have read just subtly move allocations from say 60/40 stocks-bonds to something with less risk say 55/45 or 50/50. Some do a bit more if PE/10 goes over 30 which it is not today such at 40/60 or 30/70. This is nothing more than reallocati...
by LittleD
Tue Mar 25, 2014 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealthfront.com? What is your take???
Replies: 12
Views: 3009

Re: Wealthfront.com? What is your take???

Betterment and Wisebanyan do essentially the same thing and are cheaper options if you are looking for a simple solution for portfolio management. I'm not currently using any of them but for those who just don't have time to manage and rebalance portfolios, they seem to do the service about as cheap...
by LittleD
Wed Mar 12, 2014 6:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ding! Check engine light is now on. [PE10 exceeds 25]
Replies: 108
Views: 14054

Re: Ding! Check engine light is now on. [PE10 exceeds 25]

What is the number on Y axis? Normalized PE10? Oh sorry, that might help huh? So I assigned 0 to Green, 1 to Yellow and 2 to Red then because I didn't have full data for all indicators for the whole time series I used an average value of all the available indicators for each reading. The graphs wer...
by LittleD
Sun Mar 09, 2014 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't like PE/10; How about Warren Buffet's metric
Replies: 24
Views: 1961

Re: Don't like PE/10; How about Warren Buffet's metric

Thanks for the details. How would compare Bogle's simple number of 4 to 5% nominal growth to this more theoretical derivation (which frankly I don't understand all the implied assumptions using the Schiller PE and reductions for sustainable dividend payouts and such)? Given Bogle's assumptions, it ...
by LittleD
Sun Mar 09, 2014 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't like PE/10; How about Warren Buffet's metric
Replies: 24
Views: 1961

Re: Don't like PE/10; How about Warren Buffet's metric

What I am suggesting if you want to reduce risk is hold more bonds rather than attempt to market time you exposure to equities with a metric based upon yields which is not tied to interest rates. If you do want an indicator that includes interest rates you may want to include Ben Graham's 2/3rd bon...
by LittleD
Sun Mar 09, 2014 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't like PE/10; How about Warren Buffet's metric
Replies: 24
Views: 1961

Re: Don't like PE/10; How about Warren Buffet's metric

Why do you think using any valuation metric to determine you asset allocation is going to help performance? <snip> Where in the OP did you read anything about performance ? This is the only *hint of it* that I found. Many will find reasons to stay the course and I say fine and dandy because if your...
by LittleD
Sun Mar 09, 2014 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't like PE/10; How about Warren Buffet's metric
Replies: 24
Views: 1961

Re: Don't like PE/10; How about Warren Buffet's metric

Why do you think using any valuation metric to determine you asset allocation is going to help performance? Isn't a better way to do this to "tilt" to the fund with the lowest valuation metrics and let your asset allocation be determined by how much volatility in the returns you feel comfortable wi...
by LittleD
Sun Mar 09, 2014 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't like PE/10; How about Warren Buffet's metric
Replies: 24
Views: 1961

Don't like PE/10; How about Warren Buffet's metric

There have been many discussions on this board and others about the use of Shiller's PE/10 as a market valuation tool. I have said several times that my IPS uses PE/10 to shift my 50/50 stock/bond allocation when PE/10 rises to a higher risk plateau. In addition, I have been reviewing Warren Buffet'...
by LittleD
Wed Mar 05, 2014 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Betterment portfolio optimization
Replies: 76
Views: 17196

Re: Betterment portfolio optimization

[OT comments removed by admin LadyGeek] I have no desire to hand over my portfolio to a startup company that wants to manage my money for "FREE!!!" If I want portfolio management, I want quality management, and the quality advisors I know of are not throwing themselves at prospective clients offeri...
by LittleD
Wed Mar 05, 2014 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Betterment portfolio optimization
Replies: 76
Views: 17196

Re: Betterment portfolio optimization

[OT comments removed by admin LadyGeek]
by LittleD
Tue Mar 04, 2014 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reasonable
Replies: 67
Views: 12578

Re: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reason

Some of us who use PE/10 to mitigate risk in our stock portfolio would rather sacrifice return when stocks are expensive and live to fight another day. This seems to be a popular refrain, the risk mitigation vs. market timing angle. But in my mind there is that other risk that this is merely ration...
by LittleD
Tue Mar 04, 2014 6:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reasonable
Replies: 67
Views: 12578

Re: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reason

I certainly understand your position and I don't really find fault with your analysis. You are right that cash pays nothing today but what will it pay next year if QE goes away and inflation returns. If we get 3+ % GDP growth this year as many expect we will see inflation in the U.S. Short rates wil...
by LittleD
Mon Mar 03, 2014 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reasonable
Replies: 67
Views: 12578

Re: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reason

Coincidentally I was looking at the Fed Model a few weeks ago and noticed this is one of the few indicators that was really flashing red before the October 1987 crash. That is, PE1 yield - 10 yr Treasury = -4.6% in Sept 1987 was highly negative at that time. The current value is +2.6%. Moving some ...
by LittleD
Mon Mar 03, 2014 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reasonable
Replies: 67
Views: 12578

Re: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reason

Why do you think he used a AA bond and not a 10-year Treasury ? Just a guess, maybe AA was the average credit rating of the stocks that Graham considered investing in? So perhaps he was essentially considering whether it would be better to own the company or loan the company money? I suppose he pre...
by LittleD
Mon Mar 03, 2014 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reasonable
Replies: 67
Views: 12578

Re: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reason

My IPS mandates that at PE10 over 25, I start to move my allocation of 50/50 stocks-bonds to 40/50/10 stocks-bonds-cash. I do this because stocks are more risky than they were at PE/10 of 20. At PE/10 of 30, I would start to move my allocation to 30/50/20. I have no idea if stocks will go down tomo...
by LittleD
Sun Mar 02, 2014 6:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reasonable
Replies: 67
Views: 12578

Re: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reason

We shouldn't have long to wait. Pe10 exceeded 25 last year while yields remained very low, so within 20 years we can come back and see who was right. We've had these discussions in several threads and over several years and I have no quibble with those who just stay the course and rebalance once a ...
by LittleD
Fri Feb 28, 2014 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Opinion about the funds I tilt with?
Replies: 9
Views: 962

Re: Opinion about the funds I tilt with?

I agree with most of the posters so far... Way too high on expense ratios. If you decide to stay at Scwabb you could choose from: ETF SCHA Small Cap Blend .08 ETF FNDA Small Cap Blend with slight value/fundamental tilt .32 Mutual Fund SWSSX Small Cap Blend .27 No trading costs on these funds... Ther...
by LittleD
Wed Feb 26, 2014 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New article: Global investment portfolios
Replies: 2
Views: 802

Re: New article: Global investment portfolios

Hi: New article: Global investment portfolios | Bogleheads Blog The Credit Suisse Global Investment Yearbook 2014 is now available for download from Publications – Credit Suisse. The yearbooks are an extension of the research of Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, and Mike Staunton, first published in the 20...
by LittleD
Sun Feb 23, 2014 8:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab alternative to Vanguard target funds?
Replies: 10
Views: 2086

Re: Schwab alternative to Vanguard target funds?

Either one will work for you but I prefer the lowest fees personally. Just always remember that Bonds are used in portfolios to mitigate risk and income is normally a secondary consideration. Since their essentially the same type of fund, I would just buy which ever one you feel comfortable with. Yo...
by LittleD
Sun Feb 23, 2014 6:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab alternative to Vanguard target funds?
Replies: 10
Views: 2086

Re: Schwab alternative to Vanguard target funds?

Hi everyone. I've been working through my accounts and coming up with an investment strategy (thanks for your help). I currently have my assets with Schwab (rollover, roth ira, and taxable account). I'm practically all cash with about $350k combined retirement/taxable and starting fresh. I've done ...
by LittleD
Wed Feb 19, 2014 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Crash Stategies?
Replies: 40
Views: 4590

Re: Market Crash Stategies?

You will probably never see a real "Market Crash" coming. The best thing to do is to go ahead and rebalance if you need to and review your IPS to see if your risk tolerance has changed. The market is not cheap and we could see a 20% correction at any time. If you are worried sick then move some mone...
by LittleD
Mon Feb 17, 2014 6:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Beginner needs Help with Portfolio
Replies: 11
Views: 1482

Re: Beginner needs Help with Portfolio

You really don't need this much complexity to build a complete portfolio. The 3-fund portfolio will do just as nicely over 30-40 years with lower cost and easier rebalancing. The low cost option: 60% VTI 30% VXUS 10% BND The cost to have this portfolio is the lowest and the ETF's trade like stocks a...
by LittleD
Sat Feb 15, 2014 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Frequent Fund Switching
Replies: 26
Views: 2560

Re: Frequent Fund Switching

First of all: It only makes sense to try relative strength/momentum style investing in a 401K or IRA at a Discount Broker who has a platform that allows free purchase of a large basket of ETF's. That way there is little cost and no tax consequences that I can see. The only ones might be commodity or...
by LittleD
Wed Jan 15, 2014 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend withdrawals and RMD
Replies: 27
Views: 4939

Re: Dividend withdrawals and RMD

If I do not reinvest any of the dividends or capital gains from mutual funds held in my traditional IRA, do the proceeds that I receive still count toward my RMD for the year? My reading of the IRS regulations state that at year 70.5 you must take the value of all your deferred taxable accounts (IR...
by LittleD
Wed Jan 15, 2014 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Highest safe withdraw rate
Replies: 49
Views: 4652

Re: Highest safe withdraw rate

Not entirely... You can certainly take 3-4% withdrawl rates in the early years of retirement but at year 70.5 the RMD kicks in and in just a few short years Uncle Sam will require you to take much more than 4% annually out of your retirement funds. The Gov't is going to force you to take all of you...
by LittleD
Wed Jan 15, 2014 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Highest safe withdraw rate
Replies: 49
Views: 4652

Re: Highest safe withdraw rate

The one fallacy of discussions concerning withdrawl rates is that for most folks, all sources of income are not available on day one of retirement. This is especially true for us that were able to retire earlier than traditional age, be it 65 or our personal SS FRA. I retired over six years ago, at...
by LittleD
Wed Dec 25, 2013 5:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: msn: "You Really Can Time The Stock Market"
Replies: 30
Views: 3813

Re: msn: "You Really Can Time The Stock Market"

Adjusting exposure to stocks based on market valuation metrics (Market Timing to those on Bogleheads) is not about beating the market. Practicing this adjustment method is not about beating the market, it is all about controlling risk in a portfolio. Rebalancing could also be called a form of market...
by LittleD
Sat Dec 21, 2013 1:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard portfolio to beat the market-Feat. on Marketwatch.
Replies: 10
Views: 1190

Re: Vanguard portfolio to beat the market-Feat. on Marketwat

He talks about "beating the market," which he defines as the S&P 500. I would think of beating the S&P as creating a large cap portfolio that outperformed the S&P, not loading up on small cap and international and then saying you beat the market. You are probably correct...It would probably be bett...
by LittleD
Sat Dec 21, 2013 11:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard portfolio to beat the market-Feat. on Marketwatch.
Replies: 10
Views: 1190

Re: Vanguard portfolio to beat the market-Feat. on Marketwat

I used to invest very similarly to this. I still small/value tilt but now I just use a combination of total stock market and small cap value to get my factor exposure. I also don't use the International Value fund because, historically, it hasn't been all that valuey. I think investing in 4 domesti...
by LittleD
Sat Dec 21, 2013 10:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard portfolio to beat the market-Feat. on Marketwatch.
Replies: 10
Views: 1190

Re: Vanguard portfolio to beat the market-Feat. on Marketwat

Have you guys read this article? I found it interesting to the point of considering moving my core portfolio to match it. What is your guys take? http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-vanguard-fund-strategy-to-double-your-nest-egg-2013-11-13 I think one of the biggest dangers newer investors face is j...
by LittleD
Sat Dec 21, 2013 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard portfolio to beat the market-Feat. on Marketwatch.
Replies: 10
Views: 1190

Re: Vanguard portfolio to beat the market-Feat. on Marketwat

There always exists the possibility of beating a total market benchmark by over weighting some subsets of the total market in your portfolio. It's a lot easier to construct a market beating portfolio if you use historical returns. Going forward is a different and somewhat more chancy proposition. Y...
by LittleD
Sat Dec 21, 2013 9:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard portfolio to beat the market-Feat. on Marketwatch.
Replies: 10
Views: 1190

Re: Vanguard portfolio to beat the market-Feat. on Marketwat

Have you guys read this article? I found it interesting to the point of considering moving my core portfolio to match it. What is your guys take? http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-vanguard-fund-strategy-to-double-your-nest-egg-2013-11-13 Merriman has been promoting the Ultimate Buy & Hold portfoli...
by LittleD
Tue Dec 03, 2013 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 49441

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

I thought everyone might like to read this article by Mebane Faber who looks at PE/10's across the world. He sees the US as the most expensive stock market in the World save 1 country, Sri Lanka. Enjoy: http://www.mebanefaber.com/2013/12/01/the-us-is-the-most-expensive-stock-market-in-the-world/ :ha...
by LittleD
Sun Dec 01, 2013 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question for Market Timers or Psuedo Timers
Replies: 13
Views: 1167

Re: Question for Market Timers or Psuedo Timers

Yes the stock market is overvalued, but there are few alternatives. Putting your money in a savings account at 0.5% is unsatisfactory. That's foolish thinking. I would rather take 0.5% for a year or two than experience a 20% correction which we are much overdue for. Keep risk in check grasshopper a...
by LittleD
Sun Dec 01, 2013 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question for Market Timers or Psuedo Timers
Replies: 13
Views: 1167

Re: Question for Market Timers or Psuedo Timers

I have moved 7% of my normal Stock allocation to very short term corporate bonds etf (less than 1 year duration and because I hate treauries now) as my IPS directs. If PE/10 moves above 30 I will move another 8% to the short term bond side. It was certainly less than 100K but could get close at PE/1...
by LittleD
Sat Nov 30, 2013 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 49441

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

You have it all wrong. What is being discussed here is rebalancing based on PE/10 valuation versus time/calendar rebalancing. The only real reason to rebalance is to control/lower risk (std. deviation) in your portfolio. It's all about shifting a portion of the portfolio to cash/bonds based on valu...
by LittleD
Sat Nov 30, 2013 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 49441

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

Nothing has worked so far, barring buffet and Peter lynch over any amount if time, and most investors in Magellan fund didn't get the reruns...... To be frank, this is quite incorrect. The problem is not beating the indexes, the problem is beating them by enough to make up for fees. Simple timing m...
by LittleD
Sat Nov 30, 2013 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 49441

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

This has got to be the biggest market timing thread on this forum. I'm surprised that market timing has this much support here! This would look more normal on any number of trading forums but not this one. You have it all wrong. What is being discussed here is rebalancing based on PE/10 valuation v...
by LittleD
Sun Nov 24, 2013 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 755
Views: 375956

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

I thought I would post my style box numbers from Morningstar based on the Schwab Fundamental Indexs I posted earlier. You can clearly see that I have a decidedly value tilted portfolio with international and emerging markets too. 24 16 10 11 10 8 9 7 3 This portfolio has 44% value and only 21% growth.
by LittleD
Sun Nov 24, 2013 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 755
Views: 375956

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

Very simple to build TREV H's UB&H portfolio if you have access to Schwab... Here's two approaches that can be used: for a 50/50 portfolio and you can adjust for 60/40 or whatever... 12.5% Schwab SCHX or FNDX ETF Large Cap 12.5% Schwab FNDA Small Cap with value tilt 12.5% Schwab FNDF Large Cap Inte...
by LittleD
Sat Nov 23, 2013 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 755
Views: 375956

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

Very simple to build TREV H's UB&H portfolio if you have access to Schwab... Here's two approaches that can be used: for a 50/50 portfolio and you can adjust for 60/40 or whatever... 12.5% Schwab SCHX or FNDX ETF Large Cap 12.5% Schwab FNDA Small Cap with value tilt 12.5% Schwab FNDF Large Cap Inter...
by LittleD
Mon Nov 18, 2013 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 49441

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

Just like all the great market crashes, the end comes like a thief in the night while all are sleeping. This doesn't really correlate with your assertion that market crashes are semi-predictable using PE10. I do believe crashes can happen unexpectedly, and therefore I recommend always sticking with...
by LittleD
Mon Nov 18, 2013 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 49441

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

Just like all the great market crashes, the end comes like a thief in the night while all are sleeping. This doesn't really correlate with your assertion that market crashes are semi-predictable using PE10. I do believe crashes can happen unexpectedly, and therefore I recommend always sticking with...
by LittleD
Sun Nov 17, 2013 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 49441

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

Well said. I concur greatly. I have taken some action (not much) but will take more if US market prices keep rising . I've banked some profits and feel good to have been able too. Now many will not heed or agree with our comments which is fairly normal for strongly held positions. Noah had the same...
by LittleD
Sat Nov 16, 2013 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 49441

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

I expect that as bond yields rise, the earnings yield of stocks will rise as well (cost of capital argument) meaning the PE ratio will decline. This doesn't mean stocks will decline, because if earnings are rising rapidly then price can also rise even while PE declines. The point is, I've never bee...