Search found 220 matches

by LittleD
Wed Dec 03, 2014 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 169
Views: 39759

Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt

If you want to take issue with something in his philosophy - go after the whole Merriman market timing methodology. ...which he uses for half of his assets but generally does not recommend for others. Merriman has explained many times why he chooses to apply a form of "market timing" to half his po...
by LittleD
Tue Nov 11, 2014 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr Bogle - 20x p/e warning
Replies: 22
Views: 4760

Re: Mr Bogle - 20x p/e warning

If you're worried about Mr. Bogle's view on valuations why not just rebalance today and sleep well tonight. If you still can't sleep tonight just shift your portfolio allocations a bit more to fixed income or cash... say by 5-10% so you can sleep. Otherwise, stay the course and go catch some fish fo...
by LittleD
Fri Oct 31, 2014 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman criticism?
Replies: 73
Views: 13984

Re: Paul Merriman criticism?

If you don't base decisions on evidence what do you do? There is no other alternative that is logical This is why the term "evidence-based" is nonsensical. It sounds like marketing-speak to me. If someone told me, "MY system is better because it's evidence-based!", I would not be able to stop mysel...
by LittleD
Wed Oct 29, 2014 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Schwab Intelligent Portfolios"
Replies: 63
Views: 16165

Re: "Schwab Intelligent Portfolios"

I am curious how Schwab is going to make money on this. I am assuming the Intelligent Portfolios will use Schwab ETF's. The margins have got to be razor thin. Schwab answers that in disclaimer on the bottom of their webpage: **SIP charges no advisory fees. Schwab affiliates do earn revenue from the...
by LittleD
Wed Oct 29, 2014 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Schwab Intelligent Portfolios"
Replies: 63
Views: 16165

Re: "Schwab Intelligent Portfolios"

Thank you for the link. Will you be able to hold index funds like the total market index and international total market with Schwab with this new "Schwab Intelligent portfolios"? I always wanted to invest in the Schwab total market index - SWTSX. From the Schwab website, it seems they will be offer...
by LittleD
Wed Oct 29, 2014 1:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tools for Balancing and Re-Balancing Portfolio
Replies: 13
Views: 1828

Re: Tools for Balancing and Re-Balancing Portfolio

You don't really have to worry if you want to just set it and forget it. Schwab will be offering a new service in the new year that will offer portfolios that will meet your needs and risk tolerance. They will also rebalance this portfolio for you so you don't have to do a thing. And guess what.... ...
by LittleD
Tue Oct 28, 2014 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman criticism?
Replies: 73
Views: 13984

Re: Paul Merriman criticism?

I don't have a dog in the fight, but do agree as a physician when I hear evidence based that means there simply is evidence to say do this or that based on past studies. In medicine you can have different levels of strength of such evidence. MOST studies are retrospective. They go back in time to s...
by LittleD
Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman criticism?
Replies: 73
Views: 13984

Re: Paul Merriman criticism?

I studied Merriman's suggested portfolios along with those from some of the books I read from Larry Swedroe and William Bernstein so I have a slicer type portfolio but if starting new I'd probably look hard at what Trev put together. Like your thoughts... I too follow Merriman often but I agree tha...
by LittleD
Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman criticism?
Replies: 73
Views: 13984

Re: Paul Merriman criticism?

It falls in the same category as "smart beta." Rick, this aversion to the term "Smart Beta" wears thin after awhile because we know you don't care for the marketing aspect. Actually, I'm hearing the term "Strategic Beta" used more and more with these types of index formulations. Most of us get it t...
by LittleD
Sun Oct 19, 2014 6:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio
Replies: 71
Views: 31924

Re: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio

The 2 portfolios shown at the top of the post have 11 and 13 stocks. That seems like such a pain compared to a 2 or 3 funds portfolio. And the Merriman portfolios have specific percentages so rebalancing these must be a time consuming task with I presume tax consequences. I cannot imagine doing tha...
by LittleD
Sun Oct 19, 2014 6:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio
Replies: 71
Views: 31924

Re: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio

Yes, he does stick to mostly non-volatile bonds because he feels you take enough risk on the stock side and bonds are there to provide safety, liquidity & dry powder in case of a market debacle. The % of bonds is a personal decision based on a person's risk tollerance and their ability to withstand ...
by LittleD
Sun Oct 19, 2014 4:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio
Replies: 71
Views: 31924

Re: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio

Even 1/2 of 1% additional return compounded over 30-40 years is a substantial amount of money in the thousands of dollars. It might make the difference in quality of life in retirement. Wouldn't it be nice to bank this additional return while experiencing less risk (volatility) over those years. Jus...
by LittleD
Sat Oct 18, 2014 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio
Replies: 71
Views: 31924

Re: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio

If you do annual rebalancing it should take you about an hour to do it each year if you set up a spreadsheet. If that's too much just do the 3 fund portfolio and let it ride. Actually, unless the year is volatile and several funds go over the bands, it should only take about 30 minutes to find out h...
by LittleD
Sat Oct 18, 2014 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio
Replies: 71
Views: 31924

Re: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio

I see no problem with your logic. I too have simplified my portfolio over the years but Paul has said on many ocasions that young investors should have 80-90% of their money in stocks and hope that the market goes down bigtime so they can buy more at the bottom. The problem is that young people don'...
by LittleD
Sat Oct 18, 2014 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio
Replies: 71
Views: 31924

Re: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio

I agree with you... TREV H did some fine evaluation work back in 2009 and his UB&H 4 fund portfolio is quite nice. Rebalance once or twice a year and stay the course and you should do just fine in the future wherever it leads us. I think Paul does a great service for young and novice investors and o...
by LittleD
Sat Oct 18, 2014 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Health care tilt
Replies: 77
Views: 7338

Re: Health care tilt

Because For Profit heathcare is likely to change dramatically over the next 10 years, I would be careful not to get the allocation out of allignment with a fully diversified portfolio. Who know whether the healthcare industry will be fully managed to take the profit out of future business. I would k...
by LittleD
Sat Oct 18, 2014 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio
Replies: 71
Views: 31924

Re: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio

If you want to learn much more go to his website: http://paulmerriman.com/
He has brokerage portfolios based on his methods, and has looked at over 50
401k's to help investors pick the right mutual funds in their efforts to
design portfolios on his recommendations.

Good Luck with your investments.
by LittleD
Sat Oct 18, 2014 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio
Replies: 71
Views: 31924

Re: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio

I think his portfolio approach is just fine but it is a bit more complicated and hard to manage (rebalancing). If you want to achieve similar results with almost the same diversification and just 4 funds you could look up the TREV H thread and try his 4 fund method. Now if you just want simple, no f...
by LittleD
Sat Oct 18, 2014 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio
Replies: 71
Views: 31924

Re: Thoughts on Paul Merriman's Portfolio

You are absolutely right in what you say. His portfolio is based on a long history of known results and represents how his own family money is invested. He shows how this combination of asset classes adds return with less standard deviation but he has said many times that the future could and will m...
by LittleD
Wed Oct 15, 2014 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity linking up with Betterment for Robo Advisor Service
Replies: 0
Views: 458

Fidelity linking up with Betterment for Robo Advisor Service

Looks like Fidelity is getting associated with Betterment to provide RIA's a
connecting service to Betterment with lower fees.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102087176?trknav ... :topnews:1
by LittleD
Fri Oct 10, 2014 5:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab to unveil their own robo-broker service
Replies: 27
Views: 4868

Re: Schwab to unveil their own robo-broker service

You all know an advisor only needs $100 million or so in AUM to make a very good living? In the big picture $100 million is not a lot. Even charging 0.50% that is good revenue, and in my opinion a reasonable fee if you include ongoing financial planning services. The robo advisors will bring in hun...
by LittleD
Thu Oct 09, 2014 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab to unveil their own robo-broker service
Replies: 27
Views: 4868

If you are thinking about a Robo-Advisor...Wait!

Schwab is just weeks away from setting up "FREE" Robo-Advisor managed portfolios with free rebalancing for about .10 fees. That's 10 basis points per year. You would be able to get a fully diversified ETF portfolio managed by a large reputable firm at the current lowest cost available. Check it out ...
by LittleD
Mon Oct 06, 2014 5:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab to unveil their own robo-broker service
Replies: 27
Views: 4868

Re: Schwab to unveil their own robo-broker service

We have Financial Engines integrated with our 401K and other variables we input manually such as Funds in Vanguard. It amuses me to run this on various days. It does not like Managed Funds and prefers low cost funds. I have some money in VHCOX -Vanguard Capital Opportunity in my Roth IRA. Sometimes...
by LittleD
Sat Oct 04, 2014 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab to unveil their own robo-broker service
Replies: 27
Views: 4868

Re: Schwab to unveil their own robo-broker service

I use a robo-broker service though my work 401K which is serviced by Fidelity. I was impressed since it can link my Roth IRA account. It recommend that I increase my contribution by 2% and put a bit more onto stocks. Here we are on the path towards understanding the business model. Pretty soon for ...
by LittleD
Sat Oct 04, 2014 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab to unveil their own robo-broker service
Replies: 27
Views: 4868

Re: Schwab to unveil their own robo-broker service

I use a robo-broker service though my work 401K which is serviced by Fidelity. I was impressed since it can link my Roth IRA account. It recommend that I increase my contribution by 2% and put a bit more onto stocks. Here we are on the path towards understanding the business model. Pretty soon for ...
by LittleD
Sat Oct 04, 2014 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab to unveil their own robo-broker service
Replies: 27
Views: 4868

Re: Schwab to unveil their own robo-broker service

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-schwab-ready-unveil-free-193014253.html Add Schwab to the likes of Wealthfront, Betterment, and the robo-CFPs at Vanguard. In old news Wealthfront has exceeded $1.4 billion in assets. Looks like it... Also says it will be free and have automatic rebalancing a...
by LittleD
Wed Oct 01, 2014 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation market timing strategy inspired by John B
Replies: 43
Views: 5297

Re: Asset allocation market timing strategy inspired by John

I agree 100%. You never have to go all in or all out of stocks. If you think or feel that the market is expensive or overvalued just move enough into cash or bonds so you can sleep easy at night. Never panic but only accept the market risk you can live with comfortably. Bogle has it right...everythi...
by LittleD
Tue Sep 30, 2014 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation market timing strategy inspired by John B
Replies: 43
Views: 5297

Re: Assett allocation market timing strategy inspired by Joh

countmein wrote:I've been considering the following DAA: 15% when PE>15, 25% when PE<15, for both US and Ex-US respectively. Thus total equity allocation always between 30 and 50 %. So currently would be at 15% US and 25% International.

If you sleep well at nite and enjoy your life...go for it.
by LittleD
Tue Sep 30, 2014 11:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: bogus schwab email [Phishing scam]
Replies: 22
Views: 1752

Re: bogus schwab email

It's a scam...Don't login or even open the email....Just delete.
Schwab would never send an email like that to anyone...
by LittleD
Tue Sep 30, 2014 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation market timing strategy inspired by John B
Replies: 43
Views: 5297

Re: Assett allocation market timing strategy inspired by Joh

Well, if you want to do this then you need to think about what set of earnings you want to use to calculate PE. There are forecasted earnings and then there is TTM (Twelve Trailing Months) which is historical. It's a way to mitigate risk but not necessarily add more return over time. I use something...
by LittleD
Tue Sep 23, 2014 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A review of the Schwab PCRA in 401K
Replies: 2
Views: 1105

A review of the Schwab PCRA in 401K

There have been a few threads on questions concerning Brokerage Windows and PCRA accounts linked to companies 401K accounts. Here is a link to a recent review of Schwab's PCRA and how it works, funds/etf's available and fees associated with the account charged by Schwab and your 401K plan administra...
by LittleD
Tue Sep 09, 2014 5:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 755
Views: 376627

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

Yes, apparently FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap, is in fact more valuey than International Explorer. However, wouldn't that be all the more reason to go with the Explorer? Going with FTSE would mean too much value tilt, given that you already have Small Cap Value US and International Large Cap value...
by LittleD
Fri Sep 05, 2014 7:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab PCRA...Worth it?
Replies: 6
Views: 5135

Re: Schwab PCRA...Worth it?

Just to add to the discussion, I too have access to the Schwab PCRA at my company and I think it is fantastic. I am able to set up an automated movement of my 401K funds once a month and they email me when the transaction is completed each month. You can also set up an automatic investment in cheap ...
by LittleD
Thu Aug 07, 2014 7:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How Often to Look for Rebalancing Opportunities?
Replies: 20
Views: 1551

Re: How Often to Look for Rebalancing Opportunities?

I don't think there's much benefit to trying to rebalance too many times a year. I think just pick a useful strategy to do it once or twice a year and add that time to you IPS. For me, I just do it the 1st week of April and the 1st week of October. Seems to work well over the last 25 years or so. No...
by LittleD
Thu Aug 07, 2014 7:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Automatic PCRA investment
Replies: 11
Views: 1274

Re: Automatic PCRA investment

My PCRA has the automatic transfer which usually moves the money to Schwab automatically once each month. From there you can do automatic investing if you are using mutual funds that make up your portfolio. I think it would be harder right now to do ETF's unless you are going to specify buy a set am...
by LittleD
Wed Aug 06, 2014 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Starting a Lazy Portfolio Now
Replies: 21
Views: 4292

Re: Starting a Lazy Portfolio Now

Hi, I know you can never time the market - but with S&P 500 at it's all time peak, but quite a long way, is now a good time to start a lazy portfolio? I guess if you are holding 10-20+ years it won't make much difference, but still, it's hard to pull the trigger on a massive peak? It's been shown t...
by LittleD
Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 755
Views: 376627

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

This is an excellent thread and very informative. Merriman now recommends 10 funds (adding domestic and international REIT). I wonder how the 4 fund approach recommended by Trev performs vs. the 10 fund recommendation. Perhaps there is little material difference. http://paulmerriman.com/pauls-mutua...
by LittleD
Thu Jul 31, 2014 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 755
Views: 376627

Re: Re:

Do you work for a Fortune 500 company? I've never heard of this option for any 401(k). A number of people have mentioned having this - more often called a "brokerage window" or something along that line. I know some of the Fidelity 401k's have it. Don't remember where the others might have been. If...
by LittleD
Thu Jul 31, 2014 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 755
Views: 376627

Re: Re:

He might want to check closely with his 401K materials. Our 401k isn't great like most in the industry but we have a provision that allows us to move our money to Schwab through a PCRA (Personal Choice Retirement Account) and I move all my allocations to Schwab each month and don't invest in any of...
by LittleD
Thu Jul 31, 2014 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 755
Views: 376627

Re: Re:

This is all fine and dandy, but good luck to the average investor in having access to these funds in their 401(k)s. Like me. 50% of my retirement money is in my 401(k), the other half an IRA at Vanguard. You need to switch employers more often. :D I know your pain. Fortunately, my employer offers V...
by LittleD
Thu Jul 31, 2014 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 755
Views: 376627

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

You are correct. ISV & SV provide the premium kick that is needed over a lifetime to properly diversify while mitigating risk. Bonds in such a portfolio also provide that safety factor so that any risk profile can be achieved. The unknown hope is that the small and value premiums will continue into ...
by LittleD
Sun Jul 20, 2014 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 755
Views: 376627

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

I didn't catch it but I hope he sticks with us... He did some fantastic research. On Merriman, he is becoming less active due to the investing course he is working on for a Washington State College and he spends 1/2 the year in Mexico with his family. I think his wife wants him to slow down and spen...
by LittleD
Sun Jul 20, 2014 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 755
Views: 376627

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

I think TrevH has not posted in these forums for a couple of years and I have not found any postings under that user name. I will say that if you do a search, there is a large thread on the TrevH portfolio and backtesting that was done a couple of years ago. I know Paul Merriman has made a few chang...
by LittleD
Sun Jul 20, 2014 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 755
Views: 376627

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

What you say is absolutely true. None of us knows how the future will unfold. Everything could and possibly will change materially. The reasoning behind Merriman's & TrevH's portfolios is to provide workable portfolios with a substantial amount of world diversification to minimize risk per unit of r...
by LittleD
Thu Jul 10, 2014 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 755
Views: 376627

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

Very good explanation...I think we both spent a lot of time studying Merriman and Trev-H's portfolios.
Little % changes in allocation won't matter that much in the long run.
by LittleD
Wed Jul 09, 2014 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 755
Views: 376627

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

Okay...Here is one portfolio that follows UB&H just using Schwab ETF's with no transaction fees: % ofAssets Holding Name Stock Industry/ 49.15 Schwab US Aggregate Intermediate-Term Bond 12.89 Schwab US Broad Mark Large Blend 12.67 Schwab Fundamental U Small Blend 12.63 Schwab Fundamental I Foreign ...
by LittleD
Wed Jul 09, 2014 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 755
Views: 376627

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

grap0013 wrote:^ You lost me with 2 decimal place allocations. We are not cooking meth here. Probably more art involved than science in investing.

You don't have to overthink this...What I provided was my personal allocation as it stands today. I will be rebalancing but not right now.
by LittleD
Wed Jul 09, 2014 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 755
Views: 376627

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

Okay...Here is one portfolio that follows UB&H just using Schwab ETF's with no transaction fees: % ofAssets Holding Name Stock Industry/ 49.15 Schwab US Aggregate Intermediate-Term Bond 12.89 Schwab US Broad Mark Large Blend 12.67 Schwab Fundamental U Small Blend 12.63 Schwab Fundamental I Foreign L...
by LittleD
Wed Jul 09, 2014 6:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 755
Views: 376627

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

Not trying to quibble but you can look at 40 annual returns vs market vs other portfolios and you can look at 480 monthly returns vs market vs other portfolios to get a feel for how any portfolio might perform and that many observations would be statistically significant. It's a good thought, but y...
by LittleD
Wed Jul 09, 2014 6:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 755
Views: 376627

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

Another question, are you "supposed" to add REIT to this if you use it to substitue the ultimate buy and hold? Beacause the ultimate buy and hold have 10 categories in the stock part. this one showed that for past performance the 4 slices was just as good as the 8. but what about emerging markets a...