Search found 36108 matches

by nisiprius
Fri Oct 19, 2018 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!
Replies: 147
Views: 16544

Re: Total Bond Market Fund - interest rates rising!

I don't want to harp on this too much but there is a legitimate question how liquid CDs might be, if interest rates rise so much that large numbers of people want to break their CDs before maturity... particularly if it happens at a time when banks are stressed. People assume that money in CDs is av...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 19, 2018 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?
Replies: 43
Views: 4113

Re: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?

I don't see where either Matt Topley or Jeremy Siegel says anything about bonds being a "Maginot Line," and I don't see how this analogy does much to illuminate anything. Sure, it's a way of saying that confidence in the protection of bonds might be ill-placed, but as an analogy it doesn't say why o...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 19, 2018 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta
Replies: 31
Views: 3454

Re: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta

OK, now I have what Burton Malkiel wrote in the 2015 edition of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street." I said "he trashed it" and that's correct. He spends a full chapter on it, chapter 11, pp. 260-288, "Is Smart Beta Really Smart?" He knocks down everything, listing "the positives" and "the negatives" f...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 18, 2018 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta
Replies: 31
Views: 3454

Re: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta

It was only four years ago in 2014 that Burton Malkiel trashed smart beta in a paper in the Journal of Portfolio Management, "Is Smart Beta Really Smart," and in 2016 he said In that [smart beta] does enhance returns, it’s likely because the portfolios have additional risk...It isn’t some smart new ...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 18, 2018 5:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3406
Views: 1014545

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Just finished The Perfectionists:How Precision Engineers Created the Modern World by Simon Winchester. Fantastic. So I'm starting another of his, A Crack in the Edge of the World . Finished The Late Show , by Michael Connolly, a police procedural, with a new protagonist, Renee Ballard. Pretty good. ...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do index funds do when firm's market cap drops?
Replies: 17
Views: 1521

Re: What do index funds do when firm's market cap drops?

They do nothing. The firm's market cap drops because the price of their stock has dropped. The value of the shares the index fund owns drop, thereby reducing the percentage of the fund's value that is now invested in that stock. It happens automatically as a result of the change in the price of the ...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forever Stamps as an Investment?
Replies: 32
Views: 3717

Re: Forever Stamps as an Investment?

It's the same problem as the supposed basis of Ponzi's scheme,* but with a much less favorable return. You could probably buy them in sufficient quantity to store enough value to be a meaningful investment, let's say $5,000 worth or more. Indeed, I see that "Flowers from the Garden" is available in ...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 18, 2018 5:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Top stocks of 2000 trail the market over the next 18 years
Replies: 39
Views: 3012

Re: Top stocks of 2000 trail the market over the next 18 years

If your point is that a portfolio of a few "obviously good" stocks is not the sure thing many people think it is, I agree. You can demonstrate this point in many ways. The "top stocks" underperformed. I'm fond of tracking the three stocks named by the authors of Dow 36,000 in 1999. They chose them o...
by nisiprius
Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was max drop in 2000 and 2008?
Replies: 15
Views: 3059

Re: What was max drop in 2000 and 2008?

I found in 2008-2009, with retirement less than ten years away, that I processed the loss in terms of years . That is, the number of years it had taken me to save the amount that I had just lost. Throughout my retirement savings journey I also found that I didn't mind losses too much as long as the ...
by nisiprius
Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Huge drops in VTXVX and VTHRX [Vanguard Target Date Funds]
Replies: 54
Views: 4948

Re: Huge drops in VTXVX and VTHRX [Vanguard Target Date Funds]

Good article about the idea of brokers jumping from buildings, and crash-related suicides, in The Washington Post in 1987, here.
by nisiprius
Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Huge drops in VTXVX and VTHRX [Vanguard Target Date Funds]
Replies: 54
Views: 4948

Re: Huge drops in VTXVX and VTHRX [Vanguard Target Date Funds]

Yes, here is is: December 11th, 1929: EX-BROKER, 56, DIES IN NINE-STORY LEAP: Frank K. Emmett, Who Retired Three Years Ago, Jumps From Window in Apartment. CAUSE OF ACT A MYSTERY Wife and Associates Say His Health Was Good and He Had Suffered No Financial Reverses. So, a broker, a jump, but not from...
by nisiprius
Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Huge drops in VTXVX and VTHRX [Vanguard Target Date Funds]
Replies: 54
Views: 4948

Re: Huge drops in VTXVX and VTHRX

He is thinking of the wallstreeters flinging themselves out of windows after “the big one.” I don't know if anyone actually threw themselves off a window ledge after the Crash of 1929 - that's got a smell of an urban legend (can't right now track it down). I once made an incomplete attempt... what ...
by nisiprius
Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 78
Views: 9204

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

I suspect much of Managed Payout’s underperformance is due to the international holdings. Adding Lifestrategy Moderate Growth to the chart might show that. It might be true, but it's also post hoc sample selection bias. I try to provide links to the source to make it easy for anyone to do their own...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: WMCR - Invesco Wilshire Micro-Cap ETF
Replies: 13
Views: 913

Re: WMCR - Invesco Wilshire Micro-Cap ETF

Rick Ferri issued a warning about micro-cap funds in 2010: The Truth About Micro-Cap Index Funds . To his data, I'm going to add data for the Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund, NAESX, and WMCR as well. I'm going to put indexes in green, actual funds in blue. Comments in parentheses are mine, not Rick's....
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is your annual cost for health insurance?
Replies: 137
Views: 9893

Re: What is your annual cost for health insurance?

Very rough round numbers. We're on Medicare. In each case, the 2x12 means I'm multiplying a monthly number by two people and by twelve months. 2x12 x $100 for Medicare part B, + 2x12 x $35 for the combined costs of Medicare part D plus out-of-pocket co-pays on prescriptions, + 2x12 x $216 for Medica...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Warning: avoid Windows 10 update 1803
Replies: 117
Views: 13856

Re: Warning: avoid Windows 10 update 1803

...I never decline updates. If they break something next update would fix it... Twice, automatic updates put my wife's Windows 10 computer into a state in which it would not startup. Once startup is broken, how can the "next update" fix it? (Both times I was eventually able to recover by restoring ...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 13, 2018 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone consider institutional risk?
Replies: 37
Views: 2204

Re: Does anyone consider institutional risk?

...Yes, but virtually eliminates the risk of catastrophic loss (assuming independent probabilities of fraud). That's the whole point... I'm not sure it does eliminate it. Of course I'm just engaging in creative storytelling, not realistic risk assessment... ...But if I were going to fuss about it, ...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone consider institutional risk?
Replies: 37
Views: 2204

Re: Does anyone consider institutional risk?

Anybody deliberately use different investment firms to lower "institutional risk," or is it not worth consideration? We all know that Vanguard and other mutual fund firms are not covered by any SIPC or other insurance, so, are there real risks to customers assets such as fraud, bankruptcy, or other...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Have you annuitized some of your money?
Replies: 67
Views: 5845

Re: Have you annuitized some of your money?

We've annuitized about 1/4th of our portfolio. How did you decide on 1/4? I don't remember exactly. It was a combination of seat-of-the-pants, what we felt comfortable irrevocably "spending," and, if I remember correctly, I really did deduct our anticipated Social Security benefits and from our rou...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Have you annuitized some of your money?
Replies: 67
Views: 5845

Re: Have you annuitized some of your money?

We've annuitized about 1/4th of our portfolio. The products we used were an inflation-indexed single-premium immediate annuity from AIG Life Insurance Company, now renamed American General, and a TIAA-CREF lifetime payout contract with the "graded" payment option, which generates an imprecise, vague...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Fidelity Puritan Fund (FPURX) investors?
Replies: 11
Views: 491

Re: Any FPURX investors?

...I think because Puritan is free to change its asset allocation between a certain range and that kind of thing is frowned upon here as market timing with manager risk... Actually, in an appendix to Clash of the Cultures , Bogle has a table of how Wellington's stock/bond allocation has varied with...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EMH a tautology?
Replies: 108
Views: 4892

Re: Is EMH a tautology?

That's what makes the "H" in EMH a hypothesis. If it were "proven" (a difficult term to use considering most scientific research will never use the term proven but will only speak in terms of statistical significance, which means that there's always some percentage chance that results you got were ...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Fidelity Puritan Fund (FPURX) investors?
Replies: 11
Views: 491

Re: Any FPURX investors?

Any ideas how to see if I am set up to reinvest? I am using Ally invest. I don't know Ally invest. I suggest you telephone them. This is the sort of question a rep should be able to answer very quickly. The short answer is that if you don't know how it's set up, you probably are reinvesting. It's p...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Fidelity Puritan Fund (FPURX) investors?
Replies: 11
Views: 491

Re: Any FPURX investors?

Market rebounded a bit yesterday, but FPURX down 5.44% Any ideas of whats going on there? You do realize that nobody knows what FPURX is? atlgenxennial, he's right; in this forum, we try not to seem sophisticated by referring to everything with ticker symbols. It's consider polite to give the full ...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Fidelity Puritan Fund (FPURX) investors?
Replies: 11
Views: 491

Re: Any FPURX investors?

FPURX paid out a distribution. https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/fees-and-prices/316345107?redirect=1 https://imgur.com/15QNIuk.png It paid out money. So there's less money "in" the fund. So each share is worth less. The same thing happens with individual stocks. If you have your accoun...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 78
Views: 9204

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

This is just some random snark I had lying around... it isn't a "factor fund," but the Vanguard Managed Payout Fund, which now has a full decade of history behind it, takes a "modern" approach: high stock allocation, risk supposedly mitigated by use of uncorrelated assets, factors, alts. The composi...
by nisiprius
Sat Oct 13, 2018 7:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EMH a tautology?
Replies: 108
Views: 4892

Re: Is EMH a tautology?

I take it seriously--not the version that says the omniscient market sees all and knows all, centuries into the future, though. A lot of important, useful, valuable concepts can be called tautologies if you want to. For example, the first law of thermodynamics is a tautology because whenever energy ...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need Reliable CPAP Supplier
Replies: 5
Views: 296

Re: Need Reliable CPAP Supplier

Probably the best approach is to choose a supplier, call them, and ask them "are you a Medicare DME?" If they say "yes," then ask them what protocol needs to be followed.
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need Reliable CPAP Supplier
Replies: 5
Views: 296

Re: Need Reliable CPAP Supplier

For supplies that are covered by insurance, I let my DME do it. For supplies that are not, and for accessories (like lithium batteries for powering my machine overnight when camping), I've used mycpap.com and cpap.com. They're both good, reliable, typical Internet "mail-order" companies. I sometimes...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?
Replies: 47
Views: 3715

Re: 6 month Treasury Note: "Bond" or "Cash"?

Even the primary categories, stocks/bonds/cash are not precise and grade into each other. Preferred stocks are bond-like stocks; junks bonds are stock-like bonds. Brokered CDs are bond-like cash, United States savings bonds are cash-like bonds. The question is always what use you plan to make of the...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If someone keeps 500K in two different FDIC insured bank accounts, 250K at each, are they still covered?
Replies: 8
Views: 1160

Re: If someone keeps 500K in two different FDIC insured bank accounts, 250K at each, are they still covered?

Yes, they are, and FDIC has an online interactive tool you can use to work through this and verify it for yourself. Better to check for yourself than to trust a stranger on the Internet. EDIE And as long as you're fussing with it anyway, you might as well take five minutes here: https://research.fdi...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Market Factors
Replies: 11
Views: 931

Re: Bond Market Factors

Between the people urging shrilly that everyone should reduce duration and go to short-term because of rising rates, and the people urging shrilly that everyone should go long-term for higher yields and stronger MPT diversification of stocks... Between the people urging shrilly that nobody should ho...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 12, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Fidelity offer the best index products for a passive investor compared to Vanguard
Replies: 61
Views: 5810

Re: Does Fidelity offer the best index products for a passive investor compared to Vanguard

What about differences in index construction, optimizations, block trading strategies, tax efficiency, securities lending, licensing, and above all experience matters, doesn't it? Vanguard has many years of expertise built into passive investing strategies so much that it is their core competency a...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Fidelity offer the best index products for a passive investor compared to Vanguard
Replies: 61
Views: 5810

Re: Does Fidelity offer the best index products for a passive investor compared to Vanguard

It's like comparing any two almost-indistinguishable products. It's like arguing about whether Coke or Pepsi is best, Duracell or Energizer, Toyota versus Honda. At one point, advertisers and regulators seemed to have agreed on the formula "No [kind of product] is better than [our product.]" I like ...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?
Replies: 84
Views: 4432

Re: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?

Let me put it this way. If you believe that a 3% drop in a single day automatically means that stocks are "on sale" and "should" be bought at a presumed bargain price, than formalize this carefully into a testable model, test it, and present the results. That is, test "whether buying the dips works....
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does international really buy you diversification?
Replies: 43
Views: 4594

Re: Does international really buy you diversification?

My opinion is that so far, historically, it has bought a slight amount of diversification , as well as some slight drag in the form of slight uncompensated risk and slightly higher expenses, and--as these threads show over and over again--it is anybody's guess whether the slight advantages outweigh ...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: your favorite ereader?
Replies: 28
Views: 1402

Re: your favorite ereader?

My wife has a Kindle Paperwhite, smallish, has a backlight. She loves it. Whenever I look at it I feel envious because the screen looks so print-like and restful on the eyes, and is readable in bright light. She reads it a lot, and she only needs to charge it about once a week. I'm using a Samsung t...
by nisiprius
Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?
Replies: 84
Views: 4432

Re: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?

1) The very phrase "correction," if taken literally, does not suggest that stocks are undervalued, merely that they are now fairly valued after a period of being overvalued. 2) People don't just use the expression "stocks on sale" to refer to sudden, seemingly-inexplicable daily movements. On 9/12/2...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: KaiZen Life Policy
Replies: 23
Views: 3887

Re: KaiZen Life Policy

How so? Is it because my opinion differs from yours? No, it is because, although you say you are not soliciting, the "CFP" in your screen name suggests you are a paid professional--and the fact that you aren't actually sharing any specific knowledge or information here in the forum suggests you are...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any natural hedges to stocks?
Replies: 18
Views: 2060

Re: Any natural hedges to stocks?

Here's a thought experiment Nisiprius. Which of the following portfolios would you rather have? And can you guess which assets make up these portfolios? https://i.imgur.com/bZaVP6W.png OK, I'll play. In hindsight, and assuming 1/1/2008 as the starting point, I would rather have had Portfolio 1, and...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter
Replies: 82
Views: 6505

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter

...2. I don't think countries graduate between emerging and developed markets often enough for internal rebalancing to make a material difference... Which, of course, obviously contradicts the premise behind the phrase "emerging markets." It doesn't. Why do you think it does? The objective descript...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What did you buy today
Replies: 111
Views: 8384

Re: What did you buy today

A cup of coffee. "Just around the corner, there's a rainbow in the sky, So let's have another cup of coffee, and let's have another piece of pie; Trouble's like a bubble, and the clouds will soon roll by, So let's have another cop of coffee, and let's have another piece of pie; Let a smile be your ...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do ITOT and FSTVX follow the same index ?
Replies: 3
Views: 518

Re: Do ITOT and FSTVX follow the same index ?

ITOT (iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF) follows TMI as index and FSTVX (Fidelity® Total Market Index Fund Premium Class) follows the DWCF index. I was not sure if they are the same or different. Asking for TLH since I had bought FSTVX in my ROTH earlier this month and wanted to avoid a ...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This Time is Different
Replies: 30
Views: 5512

Re: This Time is Different

...I will say this much. I feel that I am hearing much less "this time it's different" talk than I heard in the late 1990s... Do you see the irony in the statement, "This time it's different" because nobody is talking about "This time it's different"? :!: Nope, I missed it. Yep, that's really what ...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This Time is Different
Replies: 30
Views: 5512

Re: This Time is Different

Robertmcd, that chart doesn't answer my question. Please, if you wouldn't mind: Assuming what you consider to be a credibly bad scenario, by what percent do you expect the value of a holding of a) the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund, or b) the Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury fund to fall? ...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This Time is Different
Replies: 30
Views: 5512

Re: This Time is Different

...The nuclear bomb this time is the same thing as MBS in 2008 - BONDS, but this time it is not just mortgage bonds but sovereign bonds (which all other bonds are priced off of). In 2008 the banks held all these mortgage bonds that turned out to be worthless and that took them down. This time aroun...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Timber as an alternative - didn't work so well...
Replies: 34
Views: 5458

Re: Timber as an alternative - didn't work so well...

Swensen invested some of the Yale endowment fund in timber; anyone know how that's done?
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset
Replies: 66
Views: 3655

Re: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset

If you imagine they each start with equal amounts of VBINX (60/40 balanced index), worth exactly $100,000 at the time of the bet, then after the bet is settled one of them owns $99,000 worth of VBINX and the other owns $101,000 worth. That is not an investment it two assets. That is an investment i...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter
Replies: 82
Views: 6505

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter

...2. I don't think countries graduate between emerging and developed markets often enough for internal rebalancing to make a material difference... Which, of course, obviously contradicts the premise behind the phrase "emerging markets." It also contradicts the frequently-expressed sentiment that ...
by nisiprius
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This Time is Different
Replies: 30
Views: 5512

Re: This Time is Different

Banks and the investment industry compete to hold your money. By the "investment industry" I mean industries based on securities: stockbrokers, mutual funds, and financial advisors. When you liquidate stocks and hold cash, it is bad for the investment industry. Therefore, just about everybody in the...