Search found 36608 matches

by nisiprius
Thu Dec 27, 2018 2:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do Hertz/Avis really cost double Enterprise?
Replies: 58
Views: 3275

Re: Do Hertz/Avis really cost double Enterprise?

We want a low-end SUV like a Toyota RAV4 because we don't need 4WD but we do want a little road clearance. Where would extra road clearance be helpful that you are still allowed to drive a rental car? I do understand that a typical CSUV is often easier to enter/exit due to height over the road and ...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 27, 2018 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why stay the course? Why not sell all?
Replies: 68
Views: 6815

Re: Why stay the course? Why not sell all?

The reason I emphasized hypothetical is because with the way things are going at the moment, it really isn’t a far fetched idea that stocks are going to fall (more than they already have). It is never a far-fetched idea that stocks will keeping going the same way they are going. (That's called "mom...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 27, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The case for China A-Shares
Replies: 22
Views: 1494

Re: The case for China A-Shares

????? 1) Surely the Vanguard Emerging Markets Index Fund has included A shares for some time? Like maybe since 2016? Vanguard's statement of the fund's strategy and policy says The fund employs an indexing investment approach designed to track the performance of the FTSE Emerging Markets All Cap Chi...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any Low Risk 4 % Return
Replies: 52
Views: 6393

Re: Is there any Low Risk 4 % Return

To paraphrase "Anna Karenina," low risk investments are all alike; every high risk investment is risky in its own way. Since all low risk investments are alike, low risk investments that trade freely in an open market can't have huge differences in their return. If they did, only one with the highes...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is really going on?
Replies: 39
Views: 4006

Re: What is really going on?

Nothing unusual is going on. Or rather, nothing unusually unusual is going on. The stock market does annoying things like that from time to time. Whenever the daily movements are so big that they cause real pain in our accounts, we suddenly start paying attention and (once again) get our nose rubbed...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do Hertz/Avis really cost double Enterprise?
Replies: 58
Views: 3275

Do Hertz/Avis really cost double Enterprise?

It has been so long that I can't remember the last time I flew and rented a car. I'm just trying to get approximately oriented. I'll be flying out to the west and renting a car for two weeks in early summer. So I look at the obvious places, and--remember, I just want to get roughly oriented--I see t...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why stay the course? Why not sell all?
Replies: 68
Views: 6815

Re: Why stay the course? Why not sell all?

Let’s say, hypothetically speaking of course, that there is a good chance stocks will fall in the next few weeks/months. Assuming this information to be true, what merits does staying the course have? Wouldn’t it be more sensible to sell all of my funds now (assuming a profit, of course), and rebuy...
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alan Hull method for Investing
Replies: 2
Views: 27

Re: Alan Hull method for Investing

This is the first time I've seen this: so little traffic that it doesn't even have an Alexa rank at all. crinkles2, alanhull.com is a very obscure site. How did you ever happen to run across it? What brought it to your attention? https://imgur.com/6BectSq.png This is very specifically active managem...
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 26, 2018 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Enjoy a lump of KOL
Replies: 14
Views: 1971

Re: Enjoy a lump of KOL

Nisi.... thank you for the education. :P When I was about 20 or 21, I lost my first significant sum by investing in an active "Natural Resources" fund.... I was thinking "natural resources are finite. finite supply, unlimited demand. It's go to go UP!. How wrong I was.... I educated myself. I got c...
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 26, 2018 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bears are -20%? Then here are three bears stacked on top of each other
Replies: 34
Views: 4492

Re: Bears are -20%? Then here are three bears stacked on top of each other

dknightd wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 1:04 pm
...I ask Maybe suture?
Darn. Beat me to it while I was composing.

If current predictions don't suit 'cher,
And the Fates cut our fabric, the future,
Treat Clothos, the spinner,
To a really nice dinner,
And ask her to sew us a suture.
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 26, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bears are -20%? Then here are three bears stacked on top of each other
Replies: 34
Views: 4492

Re: Bears are -20%? Then here are three bears stacked on top of each other

...many of the LMP (liability matching portfolio) tools we have today were not available then, particularly in the early 1930s. There were no Social Security benefits to rely on. Widespread bank runs would have made anyone leery of the notion of building a CD ladder prior to FDIC insurance in 1934 ...
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 26, 2018 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bears are -20%? Then here are three bears stacked on top of each other
Replies: 34
Views: 4492

Re: Bears are -20%? Then here are three bears stacked on top of each other

Indeed. Although I don't believe the concept of "rebalancing" entered the lexicon until the 1960s or so. I've wondered--tried and failed to find contemporary sources that would elucidate it--how the crash of 1937 felt, another "three bears" crash, about the same as 2008-2009 in depth and longer in d...
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 26, 2018 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Enjoy a lump of KOL
Replies: 14
Views: 1971

Re: Enjoy a lump of KOL

Is tadamsmar joking? The coal index fund (KOL) is well into bear territory, looks like a good buy. OMG No it does not. Never woukd a sector fund appear in a boglehead port According to the Wikipedia article on GICS classification standard : Coal is not even a "sector." Nor is it an "industry group" ...
by nisiprius
Tue Dec 25, 2018 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bears are -20%? Then here are three bears stacked on top of each other
Replies: 34
Views: 4492

Re: Bears are -20%? Then here are three bears stacked on top of each other

jumbopapa wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 10:12 pm
I click on your link and it just takes me the home page. Did you mean to link a particular thread?
Sorry, fixed now in the posting above. This is also the link: viewtopic.php?p=269757#p269757
by nisiprius
Tue Dec 25, 2018 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bears are -20%? Then here are three bears stacked on top of each other
Replies: 34
Views: 4492

Bears are -20%? Then here are three bears stacked on top of each other

We've seen some postings on the question of whether we are in "bear market territory," defined as a 20% decline from... something to something. I don't know why any special importance should be attached to -20%. What I want to point out is that there is danger if we say "we are now in a bear market"...
by nisiprius
Tue Dec 25, 2018 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: buy HIGH and sell LOW?
Replies: 21
Views: 3120

Re: buy HIGH and sell LOW?

"Buy low, sell high" is just a meaningless slogan. At best, it expresses a desired outcome , not an actionable strategy for achieving that slogan. There are dozens of such sayings and you can trot out one for whatever you want to do. Or, if you are a broker trying to convince a client to make a tran...
by nisiprius
Tue Dec 25, 2018 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we officially in bear market ?
Replies: 79
Views: 9733

Re: Are we officially in bear market ?

We are currently down about -20% from the peak. In 2008-2009, the total fall of -52% can be broken into one -20% loss (to 80%), then a second -20% loss (to 64%), a third -20% loss (to 51.4%), and then a few percent more. More than three bear drops, stacked on each other. (I'm just doing numbers here...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 24, 2018 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worst prediction ever?
Replies: 15
Views: 2179

Re: Worst prediction ever?

The "Death of Equities" BusinessWeek cover story that argued that no one would ever buy stocks again.Published Aug 13, 1979. No, it didn't. And in fact it was a very sensible article. It was not a ludicrous failed prediction, it was an accurate description of what had been happening. The full title...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 24, 2018 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: BND in a severe market drop
Replies: 10
Views: 2103

Re: BND in a severe market drop

BND didn't exist in 1929, but we can use the SBBI data for "intermediate-term government bonds" and "large-company stocks" (predecessor indexes to S&P 500) to get an idea. The answer is that bonds held up very well, in part because 1929-1934 were a period of de flation. (This is annual data and the ...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 24, 2018 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10137
Views: 1786925

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

No Wall Street analysts believe stocks will suffer next year, despite a fear addled market Widespread market jitters include Federal Reserve policy, a prolonged trade fight with China, and political polarization in Washington that's partly shut down the U.S. government. Ergo, Wall Street analysts b...
by nisiprius
Mon Dec 24, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who has made money by piggybacking on famous Hedge Fund managers?
Replies: 9
Views: 941

Re: Who has made money by piggybacking on famous Hedge Fund managers?

1) Suuuuuurrrreee you're going to make money by following guesses about what moves hedge fund managers have made and copying them months after they have done them. The reason hedge funds are secretive is that--whether they can actually do it or not--their whole premise is that they can spot and take...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 23, 2018 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Replies: 155
Views: 14720

Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade

Why I should own Ford and GM, but not Toyota and Honda? Chase and BofA, but not UBS and HSBC? Pfizer and Merck, but not Bayer and Novartis? Boeing and GE, but not Siemens and Airbus? Exxon and Chevron, but not Shell and BP? Unless they know something others don't, and with Total World Stock Index f...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 23, 2018 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Replies: 155
Views: 14720

Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade

Why I should own Ford and GM, but not Toyota and Honda? Chase and BofA, but not UBS and HSBC? Pfizer and Merck, but not Bayer and Novartis? Boeing and GE, but not Siemens and Airbus? Exxon and Chevron, but not Shell and BP? Unless they know something others don't, and with Total World Stock Index f...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 23, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Replies: 155
Views: 14720

Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade

Part 1: Introduction , Appendix: Methodology Brief notes: 1) In these Monte Carlo simulations, the return for a given month is varied by randomly choosing the actual historical return or the actual historic return for an adjacent month. 2) They show the final value from $100 monthly contributions m...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 23, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Replies: 155
Views: 14720

Re: Vanguard expects international to beat US stocks in next decade

...this board is FULL of people who are dramatically underweighting international equities with allocations of 25% or less... Like me. But since the subject of the thread is Vanguard's recommendations, it may be appropriate to review Vanguard's recommendations. Considerations for investing in non-U...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 23, 2018 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When did the musicians on the titanic realize their fate?
Replies: 132
Views: 9757

Re: When did the musicians on the titanic realize their fate?

Seems like the analogy is serving more as a distraction than a support for the premise. Analogy is not often very useful for explaining investing. Just saying what something is tends to be better. In my opinion, sometimes some kinds of analogies are useful if there is a real structural resemblance....
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 23, 2018 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Begin loading the “Elephant Gun”?
Replies: 26
Views: 5130

Re: Begin loading the “Elephant Gun”?

1) What 35% decline? I know you are making it a hypothetical, but it's an oddly precise number and it sounds like you've created a fairly detailed storyline in your mind. 2) The market dropped -53%. If you had bought at -35% from peak, you would have seen your investment drop another -28%. That's en...
by nisiprius
Sun Dec 23, 2018 7:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: what to do with cash if very risk averse?
Replies: 59
Views: 5548

Re: what to do with cash if very risk averse?

Anybody want to suggest an AA that has a goal of matching inflation for a few years, transitioning out of the very shortest terms into equity when the owner feels comfortable? 100% FDIC-insured bank accounts and CDs, shopping around carefully for good rates. Inflation is currently running at 2.2%, ...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 22, 2018 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When did the musicians on the titanic realize their fate?
Replies: 132
Views: 9757

Re: When did the musicians on the titanic realize their fate?

Just to be clear: TVD's premise is that the musicians on the Titanic were fools, who lost their lives unnecessarily because they failed to understand and believe that the ship was doomed--and that if they had had the sense to see what was plainly evident, they could have saved themselves? The musici...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 22, 2018 9:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 4051
Views: 1102284

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

As noted in a whole thread about it, I thought "They Shall Not Grow Old" was fantastic. See the thread for details. It is currently playing only as an "event," with the second showing on December 27th, see https://www.fathomevents.com . I have no idea what the future plans for it are. It is good eno...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 22, 2018 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: what to do with cash if very risk averse?
Replies: 59
Views: 5548

Re: what to do with cash if very risk averse?

...Well, they're SIPC-insured which insures against any contract-violating shenanigans on the broker side... They're not SIPC-"insured." The "I" doesn't stand for "insurance" as it does in FDIC. The name of the entity is "Securities Investor Protection Corporation." They provide "protection," not "...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 22, 2018 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10137
Views: 1786925

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Hatch Batten wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 7:52 pm
nisiprius wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 5:43 pm
I'm not ready to listen to all sixteen minutes of the clip, though... where does she say "Things would be so different, if they were not as they are?" (Or words to that effect).
Song starts about 5 minutes in: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYCXO_FZj5k#t=5m21s
Thank you!
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 22, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1608
Views: 223530

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

The SeekingAlpha charts are supposed to be total return... https://imgur.com/TuTphZx.png ...and they look very different from the definitely-price-only charts available elsewhere (Yahoo! Finance in this case): https://imgur.com/ft1B7JE.png On the SeekingAlpha chart, SRRIX starts at 7.96 at 12/9/2013...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 22, 2018 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Have you moved to ETF's? Why or why not?
Replies: 84
Views: 9886

Re: Have you moved to ETF's? Why or why not?

I have used ETFs in the past. The two ETFs I have owned are QQQ (Nasdaq index) and TIP (TIPS index). I use mutual funds or ETFs depending on what seems most convenient or appropriate. I know what they are. I know where to find the "buy" button for them on brokerage websites. For my purposes, I don't...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 22, 2018 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Have you moved to ETF's? Why or why not?
Replies: 84
Views: 9886

Re: Have you moved to ETF's? Why or why not?

I have embraced ETFs. Why? Because it is the 21st century. Absolutely. There's no better reason than that. 'Scuse me, back in a minute, I see the Amazon Prime Air drone is delivering the bubble memory I bought with bitcoin. We are eighteen years into the 21st century. It is now more than ten years ...
by nisiprius
Sat Dec 22, 2018 6:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All the "should I be 100% stocks" threads over the last year.
Replies: 175
Views: 11866

Re: All the "should I be 100% stocks" threads over the last year.

The thing I find amazing is the difficulty people seem to have in understanding that risk tolerance is a personal thing that cannot be argued about. Everybody seems to feel that their own stock allocation is somehow objectively right, and that it is possible to compute some correct amount of risk to...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 21, 2018 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When did the musicians on the titanic realize their fate?
Replies: 132
Views: 9757

Re: When did the musicians on the titanic realize their fate?

I am concerned, indeed fearful, and I am staying the course. Those are not exclusive. Your colorful analogy is... interesting. Every account says that the musicians kept playing because, in the tradition of performers everywhere, they wanted to keep people calm and avoid panic. Also, all the musicia...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle shares the $1 billion investing mistake that cost him his job
Replies: 6
Views: 1985

Re: Jack Bogle shares the $1 billion investing mistake that cost him his job

There's a good, detailed chapter on this in Bogle's book, Clash of the Cultures: Investment vs. Speculation, , entitled, I think, "The Rise, Fall, and Renaissance of Wellington." Lots of details on the history of Wellington including a table showing the asset allocation and expense ratio of the fund...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Replies: 305
Views: 261181

Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

This is not any kind of prediction or observation, not intended to create reassurance or fear... just a comment on the word "parabolic." I don't believe the market "went parabolic" either in 2000 or 2008. However, in order to test that, one would need a clean definition of what it means to "go parab...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 21, 2018 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Growing Concerns with Vanguard
Replies: 27
Views: 4714

Re: Growing Concerns with Vanguard

It is my personal opinion, based on (overlapping) periods of fifteen years as a Vanguard client, about nine with Fidelity, three with Schwab, and decades with TIAA-CREF, that Vanguard's services are "perfectly good." I tend to discount a lot of the griping in this forum, just as when I'm deciding wh...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 21, 2018 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Investing In Short Time Horizons
Replies: 44
Views: 3071

Re: Larry Swedroe: Investing In Short Time Horizons

This essay is for anyone who has avoided factor investing because they feel they simply can’t wait through potentially long periods of under performance to ultimately experience the benefit. If You feel you simply can't wait through potentially long periods of under performance to ultimately experi...
by nisiprius
Fri Dec 21, 2018 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Current allocation is 100% stocks- any good reason to change?
Replies: 71
Views: 5804

Re: Current allocation is 100% stocks- any good reason to change?

...Where exactly did the data in this chart come from? Why & when did this paradigm shift occur?... It was created by Morningstar in order to benchmark target-date funds. They describe their methodology here . Morningstar itself, or maybe it was Ibbotson-acquired-by-Morningstar, is in the business ...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 20, 2018 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds page broken?
Replies: 3
Views: 339

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds page broken?

I don't know what it did before. Using two different Mac OS X browsers, Apple's own Safari, and Firefox, this is what I see. When I mouse over a colored bar, the name of a fund pops up. That's it. I don't need to click, the fund name simply pops up as the cursor slides over bar, or the area above th...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 20, 2018 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Current allocation is 100% stocks- any good reason to change?
Replies: 71
Views: 5804

Re: Current allocation is 100% stocks- any good reason to change?

Age 35, 2 kids, dual income family. Given that we are still 15+ years away from needing the money (hopefully), I feel like owning bonds would be surrendering yield for unnecessary short term stability. But I am always second guessing everything, and it's especially easy to second guess the past few...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 20, 2018 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stocks a safe haven compared to expensive US assets?
Replies: 12
Views: 1125

Re: International stocks a safe haven compared to expensive US assets?

Were international stocks (blue) a "safe haven" in 2008-2009, compared to US stocks (orange)? Source https://imgur.com/20WdHMf.png Were international stocks (blue) a "safe haven" in 2000-2003, compared to US stocks (orange)? https://imgur.com/4zIATwR.png Stocks are stocks. The world has been highly ...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 20, 2018 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why contribute to retirement funds?
Replies: 43
Views: 3233

Re: Why contribute to retirement funds?

I believe in "psychology" and in setting up "nudges" to make it easy for me to do what I know I should do (and say that I am planning to do). For example, in all my life I have never succeeded in saving money by setting aside something every month, as a separate voluntary act; and I have always succ...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 20, 2018 11:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Landscaping lights went out
Replies: 16
Views: 1188

Re: Landscaping lights went out

Just that since everything from the box outward is 12V, you can take the time to poke around yourself if you feel like it. That is, if you want to try it as a do-it-yourself project, it can be. 1) Look carefully at the transformer box. A lot of times there will be some kind of circuit breaker that n...
by nisiprius
Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the total stock market so random?
Replies: 19
Views: 2844

Re: Why is the total stock market so random?

Benjamin Graham is attributed by his protege Warren Buffett as saying: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” Just for the record... as JoMoney may be suggesting... in his writings, Graham only said that "the stock market is not a weighing ...
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good Modern Science Fiction
Replies: 353
Views: 50050

Re: Good Modern Science Fiction

Not science fiction, but a) I'm finding it fascinating and very well done, and b) it's currently on sale for $2.99 in the Kindle edition: Astounding: John W. Campbell, Isaac Asimov, Robert A. Heinlein, L. Ron Hubbard, and the Golden Age of Science Fiction , by Alec Nevala-Lee. I loved the SF of the ...
by nisiprius
Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Portfolio Watch
Replies: 13
Views: 1015

Re: Vanguard Portfolio Watch

It uses whatever holdings you tell it to use, by defining "account groups." Account groups can include investments held outside Vanguard. If you are a Vanguard-centric investor most of whose holdings are Vanguard index funds and ETFs, it's sorta OK, and I use it from time to time, just to make sure ...