Search found 36310 matches

by nisiprius
Thu Nov 29, 2018 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Are Corp Bonds Worth Risk?
Replies: 59
Views: 4971

Re: Larry Swedroe: Are Corp Bonds Worth Risk?

...Here is a counterexample to the claim that " replacing corporate bonds with Treasuries and adding more stocks provides a better performance for similar volatility ". In other words, I'm providing a proof that the statement is false ... Alas, I don't see anywhere in Random Walker's original post,...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First year with financial planner managing IRA did worse than index fund, should I pull out?
Replies: 24
Views: 2076

Re: First year with financial planner managing IRA did worse than index fund, should I pull out?

Don't do anything in a hurry. Don't worry about calendar dates. Step 1: Read enough about investing to get a good idea of how stocks actually behave--hugely variable, even over long periods of time--and how portfolios with different "stock allocations," different percentages of stock in them, behave...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 29, 2018 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Are Corp Bonds Worth Risk?
Replies: 59
Views: 4971

Re: Larry Swedroe: Are Corp Bonds Worth Risk?

Part 1: Introduction , Appendix: Methodology Brief notes: 1) In these Monte Carlo simulations, the return for a given month is varied by randomly choosing the actual historical return or the actual historic return for an adjacent month. 2) They show the final value from $100 monthly contributions m...
by nisiprius
Thu Nov 29, 2018 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL
Replies: 67
Views: 5538

Re: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL

The whole point of Bitcoin is that you can be your own bank. There is no need for intermediaries. People who wish to hold bitcoins, or if they insist, other tokens, should hold them directly. Individuals don't need instruments like HODL or GBTC. Remember: Your private keys = Your coins. Not your pr...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 28, 2018 7:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: best Mac malware program?
Replies: 13
Views: 1107

Re: best Mac malware program?

I have no idea what's "best." I use Malwarebytes (free version) to do occasional scans; it has never found anything, but it's fast. I use Avast (free version) once in a while. It always finds malware in my spam emails, and I let it clean them out so that I don't accidentally pass them on. It's never...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 28, 2018 7:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Finally cutting cable -- is 40mbps enough for streaming services?
Replies: 38
Views: 4109

Re: Finally cutting cable -- is 40mbps enough for streaming services?

We have a single TV and stream Amazon Prime Video and Netflix. Were on the lowest and cheapest tier of their fiber optic "high speed" internet service from our provider. We've in an east coast area with plenty of competition--we're not using FiOS but we were one of the earlier places to get FiOS. Wh...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How did YOU choose your career?
Replies: 149
Views: 8691

Re: How did YOU choose your career?

I looked at a PDP-1 computer, at an MIT "open house" in 1962. They demonstrated it playing music and running "Spacewar!" I just experienced an instant "Wow!" response. It took me a dozen years, including a graduate degree in a different field, to realize that computer programming was what I wanted t...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Are Corp Bonds Worth Risk?
Replies: 59
Views: 4971

Re: Larry Swedroe: Are Corp Bonds Worth Risk?

I don't necessarily disagree, I'm no expert--though I suspect that discussions of risk and return in investment-grade bonds are angels-dancing-on-the-head-of-a-pin stuff. And the weight of gurus telling us that Total Bond has too much in corporate bonds is roughly balanced by the weight of gurus tel...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 28, 2018 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Hidden Factor ETFs?
Replies: 23
Views: 2648

Re: Vanguard's Hidden Factor ETFs?

...Not to derail the thread but there are also S&P 500 ETFs which exclude one sector. http://www.proshares.com/funds/spxt.html This could be very useful to someone who works at an energy/tech company and has many RSUs and their employer is a large component of the index or very correlated to that s...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 28, 2018 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Liquid Alt Performance
Replies: 60
Views: 2816

Re: AQR/Liquid Alt Performance

Might be selective memory and I don't know if I can prove it objectively, but I'm thinking that interest in long-short funds is, if not actually a sign of a top, a sign of a long-running bull market. Remember the 130/30 funds, which, according to the experts in 2006 and 2007, were going to supersede...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 28, 2018 7:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Marijuana [Stock]
Replies: 50
Views: 4496

Re: Marijuana

I want to invest in marijuana but do not know where to start are there even stocks related Please begin by skimming over the Bogleheads investment philosophy to find out what this forum is about and what kind of investing we discuss. You could also find out what an index fund is and Google on "John...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 28, 2018 6:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL
Replies: 67
Views: 5538

Re: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL

...Really. Please explain why the fork provisions in the prospectus don't mean that this is not a suitable investment vehicle! We just saw a fork and both chains retained value. The prospectus says you don't have any right to the value of the forked chains. It's a material risk and clearly stated a...
by nisiprius
Wed Nov 28, 2018 6:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: calling peak Vanguard, peak value, top of market
Replies: 9
Views: 1292

Re: calling peak Vanguard, peak value, top of market

...In fact I've seen spin that the market "recovered" from the 1929 low in 5 years, neglecting that the entire 1930s was one long giant oscillation-- a roller coaster of sickening drops down... Yes, that's one of my bete noirs. 1936 was one of the best years in the history of the stock market, a +6...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 27, 2018 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL
Replies: 67
Views: 5538

Re: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL

The prospectus says, among other things (there appear to be about forty pages devoted to nothing but disclosure of risks): General Insolvency Risk – Each Investor bears the general risk that the financial situation of the Issuer could deteriorate. Unless specified otherwise, Investors are exposed to...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 27, 2018 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL
Replies: 67
Views: 5538

Re: First Crypto ETF Index Fund launched!!! $HODL

First ETF for cryto aka "bitcoin" was released in Switzerland under $HODL. Finally!!! Basically, it looks like a crypto index fund that tracks the largest 5 crypto and rebalance based on market cap. I'm thinking of using my play money which is currently in "alternative assets" (aka commodities, tim...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 27, 2018 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Liquid Alt Performance
Replies: 60
Views: 2816

Re: AQR/Liquid Alt Performance

I have no idea what this fund does so I can't really answer. I've already said what I want liquid alts to do. They may do so or they may not. I think it is worth the risk based on the evidence. I only used a fund in order to get Morningstar to show us the category average back to before 2008. Yes, ...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 27, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Liquid Alt Performance
Replies: 60
Views: 2816

Re: AQR/Liquid Alt Performance

...there are risks out there that we haven't seen in 30 years like when stocks and bonds go down at the same time... How about risks we've seen in the last few months, when stocks and bonds and liquid alts have all gone down at the same time? How about 2008-2009, well within "30 years?" I only chos...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 27, 2018 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does 100% stocks make sense for very high net worth individuals
Replies: 89
Views: 6879

Re: Does 100% stocks make sense for very high net worth individuals

As wealth increases, the range of choices that "make sense" widen. Eventually it includes the entire range 0% to 100%. It becomes a completely personal matter. It depends on whether you, personally, have "increasing relative risk aversion" or "decreasing relative risk aversion." Individuals who have...
by nisiprius
Tue Nov 27, 2018 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Hidden Factor ETFs?
Replies: 23
Views: 2648

Re: Vanguard's Hidden Factor ETFs?

One possibility is simply that they haven't gotten around to it, yet, because it probably require some nontrivial changes on their "filters" screen... but remember, on the Investors' site, Vanguard says, specifically: We believe that your portfolio should be style-neutral, not biased toward either ...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 26, 2018 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Hidden Factor ETFs?
Replies: 23
Views: 2648

Re: Vanguard's Hidden Factor ETFs?

columbia wrote:
Mon Nov 26, 2018 7:52 pm
I was unaware that they offer ETFs for each of the S&P sectors. Who buys such a thing?
According to The House that Bogle Built, by Lewis Braham, John C. Bogle has said:
I made a lot of mistakes. ...in a moment of weakness--I was very ill at the time--{I} started our sector funds.
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 26, 2018 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Good newsletters for speculative investments?
Replies: 14
Views: 916

Re: Good newsletters for speculative investments?

Ask yourself: Am I an investor, or am I a speculator? An investor is a person who owns business and holds it forever and enjoys the returns that U.S. businesses, and to some extent global businesses, have earned since the beginning of time. Speculation is betting on price. Speculation has no place ...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 26, 2018 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Liquid Alt Performance
Replies: 60
Views: 2816

Re: AQR/Liquid Alt Performance

I believe the expectation is for equity like returns, about half the volatility of equities, no correlation to equities. That sounds like a free lunch. Well, I would hope for at least a free stop at the dessert tray. We will see. "Equity like returns, half the volatility of equities, no correlation...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 26, 2018 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Hidden Factor ETFs?
Replies: 23
Views: 2648

Re: Vanguard's Hidden Factor ETFs?

One possibility is simply that they haven't gotten around to it, yet, because it probably require some nontrivial changes on their "filters" screen. But another possibility is that they are only "for" advisors. They seem to be shown on the advisors' site, and only on the advisors' site: advisors.van...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 26, 2018 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monte Carlo failure tolerance?
Replies: 54
Views: 3743

Re: Monte Carlo failure tolerance?

I want a simulated failure probability of less than 2.8% or less. Why 2.8%? Because that's the probability of rolling snake-eyes on a pair of dice. That's happened to me often enough when playing Monopoly that I have a feeling for how likely it is. I don't like looking at my retirement chances, imag...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 26, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Liquid Alt Performance
Replies: 60
Views: 2816

Re: AQR/Liquid Alt Performance

...What keeps bugging me is that hardly anyone wants to question AQR's benchmarking to Treasuries... To be fair (but what fun is that?) Morningstar thinks it's appropriate to benchmark QSPIX to "Morningstar Moderate Target Risk," and others have suggested that a 60/40 balanced fund-- not "equity-li...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 26, 2018 3:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: List of costs that go away/decrease and increase/appear in retirement
Replies: 69
Views: 5790

Re: List of costs that go away/decrease and increase/appear in retirement

Senior discounts can have some effect, I think, although we don't budget closely enough to take it into account. I don't mean the phony tiny discounts that places offer just because people expect senior discounts, museum admission $26, seniors $24. Or hotels, where you can get a 10% discount for bei...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 26, 2018 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do bogleheads think of small cap value?
Replies: 37
Views: 3214

Re: What do bogleheads think of small cap value?

Here is what Eugene Fama had to say on the topic, in a video that used to be available on the Dimensional website but was lost when they revamped the website (conspiracy! conspiracy!) Interviewer: Some people cite your research showing that value and small firms have higher average returns over time...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 26, 2018 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value: 15 years of underperforming
Replies: 142
Views: 11148

Re: Small Value: 15 years of underperforming

...What are the FF portfolios? DFA?... No, they are the Fama-French portfolios. That is, they are the portfolios used by Fama and French in their 1992 and 1993 papers that are the foundation of factor investing. They are the portfolios often used by people when making general claims about the perfo...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 26, 2018 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value: 15 years of underperforming
Replies: 142
Views: 11148

Re: Small Value: 15 years of underperforming

I still wonder why Fama and French divided size into two bins and value into three. In June of each year t from 1963 to 1991, all NYSE stocks on CRSP are ranked on size (price times shares). The median NYSE size is then used to split NYSE, Amex, and (after 1972) NASDAQ stocks into two groups, small ...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 26, 2018 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I too risk averse?
Replies: 45
Views: 3363

Re: Am I too risk averse?

1) "Trust thyself: every heart vibrates to that iron string."--Emerson 2) It's my opinion that there is a widespread self-interested tendency in the investment community toward pushing people to take more risk. I can speculate on reasons for this. The least venal is that the industry attracts people...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 26, 2018 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Watch suggests adding Growth Stocks
Replies: 13
Views: 859

Re: Portfolio Watch suggests adding Growth Stocks

P.S. What are the exact words of Portfolio Watch's recommendation? This is a subtle point. I suspect it does not say "add growth stocks." There is traditional terminology, still used today, in phrases like "Autodesk is a growth stock," or "Warren Buffett is a value investor," or (heaven help us) "Ou...
by nisiprius
Mon Nov 26, 2018 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Watch suggests adding Growth Stocks
Replies: 13
Views: 859

Re: Portfolio Watch suggests adding Growth Stocks

1) Portfolio Watch sucks, particularly if you have any non-Vanguard funds . It can be quite inaccurate or mistaken about what's in them. Don't ignore it completely, but don't take it too seriously. The numbers it calculates for growth/value etc. may actually be wrong. Not a mile off, but not precise...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 25, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is this spam likely a result of the Amazon breach?
Replies: 2
Views: 795

Is this spam likely a result of the Amazon breach?

Causation or correlation? I have several email addresses. I have a "junk" address that I use for... anything junky. And I have a "trusted sellers" address that I use fairly selectively with sellers I assume to be reliable... like Amazon. The "trusted sellers" address has not been completely spam-fre...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 25, 2018 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3891
Views: 1087763

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

LadyGeek wrote:
Sun Nov 25, 2018 2:06 pm
Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, on Amazon prime. Lots of action, a few car chase scenes, a lot of running on foot. It's a nice change of pace, I liked it.
I love the books (most of them). If I love the books, will I like the movies?
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 25, 2018 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value: 15 years of underperforming
Replies: 142
Views: 11148

Re: Small Value: 15 years of underperforming

...I believe the FF factor returns are long/short. The funds at dfa and vanguard are long only... Let's be very clear on this point, because now that long-short funds are getting attention it gets confusing. 1) The Fama-French portfolios , like the ones I cited and St. Lutz cited before me, are lon...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 25, 2018 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Unsatisfactory Hotel Experience
Replies: 27
Views: 2933

Re: Unsatisfactory Hotel Experience

If it bothers you, then you should complain. If they don't respond to your complaint, then feel aggrieved at them, and aggrieved at me for raising false hopes. But in my limited experience the chances of some kind of success are pretty good. But, the night before Thanksgiving? My personal reaction i...
by nisiprius
Sun Nov 25, 2018 12:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3891
Views: 1087763

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Yes, this is a *brag.* I watched "Bienvenido, Mr. Marshall." In Spanish, and as far as I know there isn't even a Region 1 DVD available, let alone a dubbed or subtitled version. It's available on a website called gloria.tv . The non-brag part is that I understood at best 15-20%. I was interested in ...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 24, 2018 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?
Replies: 119
Views: 7061

Re: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?

Within my stock allocation, it's currently, let me see, 78% US, 22% international. Many years ago it was 20% international, listening to people in the forum made me decide to add just a bit more, I had it up to 25% international, and since then the relative performance of the two has gradually reduc...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 24, 2018 5:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3453
Views: 1023603

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Walden; or, Life in the Woods, by Henry David Thoreau. Truth be told, I probably won't finish it, but I'm giving it a good shot. The Tiger in the Smoke, by Margery Allingham. Muy, muy lentemente, me costa mucho leer español: Una Semana en Lugano , de Francisco Hinojosa. Un libro gracioso, un libro ...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 24, 2018 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value: 15 years of underperforming
Replies: 142
Views: 11148

Re: Small Value: 15 years of underperforming

...To restate it: the claim is that the data used by factor advocates to support their views shows that small-cap value should have outperformed small-cap growth, not just over all time, but over the last fifteen years; yet this is not seen in real-world comparisons of small-cap value and growth fu...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 24, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value: 15 years of underperforming
Replies: 142
Views: 11148

Re: Small Value: 15 years of underperforming

So, what about DISVX? To review: the challenge put forth by the original poster concerns a) the relative performance of small-cap value versus small-cap growth b) for the last fifteen years. To restate it: the claim is that the data used by factor advocates to support their views shows that small-ca...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 24, 2018 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value: 15 years of underperforming
Replies: 142
Views: 11148

Re: Small Value: 15 years of underperforming

Larry Swedroe PM'ed me: fyi, might check last 15 years of DISVX which has outperformed the MSCI ex-US index by about 2.4% or so. So if SV was dead how did that happen? Over this period, one of worst ever for value, there was no real penalty for value tilt in global portfolio. And now valuations betw...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 24, 2018 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stay The Course" by John Bogle
Replies: 32
Views: 5829

Re: "Stay The Course" by John Bogle

The main point of this post, though: Amazon is currently (until 11/25) offering $5 off print books that cost $20 or more. Enter coupon code NOVBOOK18 during checkout for the pre-order. And, of course, use the Amazon support link from the BH site to buy it. https://www.techbargains.com/deal/430148/a...
by nisiprius
Sat Nov 24, 2018 6:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value: 15 years of underperforming
Replies: 142
Views: 11148

Re: Small Value: 15 years of underperforming

Or perhaps Occam's Razor suggests that it's easier to agree with the original poster, small value has indeed underperformed small growth for fifteen years... and that during the period of time when small cap value has available in mutual funds and ETFs, the effect has been flawed tenuous, unreliabl...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 23, 2018 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Replies: 296
Views: 254131

Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Unless it’s like 1973-4 where BOTH stocks AND BONDS get pounded Where did you get the idea that bonds "got pounded" in 1973-1974? "Both went down" isn't the same as "both got pounded." What about in “real terms”, with the effect of inflation (that I think was high)? Inflation affects stocks and bon...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 23, 2018 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value: 15 years of underperforming
Replies: 142
Views: 11148

Re: Small Value: 15 years of underperforming

Lack of dispersion between vanguard's funds shows lack of differentiation between their strategies. Maybe their implementation of the strategies is flawed? 1) You posted that below a chart I posted that shows huge dispersion between Vanguard's small-cap growth and small-cap value funds... from 2000...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 23, 2018 6:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRS publishes draft 2018 1040 - Huge changes made
Replies: 177
Views: 23803

Re: IRS publishes draft 2018 1040 - Huge changes made

If one is over 65 years of age and single, my understanding is that one can add $1350 to the $12,000. Where can one find that on the new tax form? (Standard Deduction) Seniors are supposed to get their own special form, 1040-SR . (But don't know about the blind.) Great. H&R Block's tax software doe...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 23, 2018 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Replies: 296
Views: 254131

Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Unless it’s like 1973-4 where BOTH stocks AND BONDS get pounded Where did you get the idea that bonds "got pounded" in 1973-1974? "Both went down" isn't the same as "both got pounded." What about in “real terms”, with the effect of inflation (that I think was high)? Inflation affects stocks and bon...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 23, 2018 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Replies: 296
Views: 254131

Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

"A body might stump his toe, and take pison, and fall down the well, and break his neck, and bust his brains out, and somebody come along and ask what killed him, and some numskull up and say, ‘Why, he stumped his toe .’" Unless it’s like 1973-4 where BOTH stocks AND BONDS get pounded Where did you...
by nisiprius
Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What financial advice have you been most grateful for?
Replies: 50
Views: 4226

Re: What financial advice have you been most grateful for?

My wife's dad was a farmer and had a sour attitude toward banks. I think the best single piece of financial advice I got was one he gave me when we were buying our house. It was the mid-1970s. At that time, believe it or not, adjustable rate mortgages were fairly new, maybe just a few years old. The...