Search found 37332 matches

by nisiprius
Thu Apr 25, 2019 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 321
Views: 38518

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

...I had always assumed BTC would be a replacement for Gold, not a currency replacement per se... That is an after-the-fact , shifting, re-justification. It began to be heard from bitcoin advocates only after it became clear that it did not have a future as a currency replacement. The original pape...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 25, 2019 6:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2019 DFA Matrix Book Is Out
Replies: 4
Views: 717

Re: 2019 DFA Matrix Book Is Out

Is there any way to get this as a spreadsheet file (.xls or .xlsx?) I'm guessing not, but you never know...
by nisiprius
Wed Apr 24, 2019 8:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Close Vanguard and go all in with Fidelity?
Replies: 84
Views: 7038

Re: Close Vanguard and go all in with Fidelity?

I see several people praising VTWAX (Vanguard Total World Stock Fund). What they seem to be missing is that a holding of a total US index fund and a total international index fund at their global cap weights --e.g. Fidelity ZERO Total Market Index Fund, FZROX, 55% of stock allocation Fidelity ZERO S...
by nisiprius
Wed Apr 24, 2019 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Variance Risk Premium Evidence
Replies: 84
Views: 3634

Re: Larry Swedroe: Variance Risk Premium Evidence

DMW, Yes clearly different from Taylor’s. But I’m going to disagree with you on one thing. Rebalancing a 5 or 10 fund portfolio is not significantly different from rebalancing a three fund portfolio. I don’t think rebalancing is a very good reason to avoid having a few more funds or to hire an advi...
by nisiprius
Wed Apr 24, 2019 11:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Close Vanguard and go all in with Fidelity?
Replies: 84
Views: 7038

Re: Close Vanguard and go all in with Fidelity?

In 2012 I had accounts with both Vanguard and Fidelity, both of them for well over seven years. I gradually came to the conclusion that the in the delicate balance of advantages and disadvantages between keeping accounts at two institutions, versus consolidating to one for simplicity, there was a fe...
by nisiprius
Wed Apr 24, 2019 6:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TreasuryDirect - Don't let your survivor lose assets
Replies: 53
Views: 4578

Re: TreasuryDirect - Don't let your survivor lose assets

I emailed Treasury Direct a question. The answer left me feeling insecure with regard WITH-registered electronic series I savings bonds. I feel that it is quite unclear what a surviving spouse will or will not be able to do, if she has transact rights on I bonds that are registered as Deceased WITH ...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 23, 2019 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Variance Risk Premium Evidence
Replies: 84
Views: 3634

Re: Larry Swedroe: Variance Risk Premium Evidence

Bogleheads: An ounce of increased return is worth more than a pound of lower volatility. I would like to see the before and after-tax returns of Dave's portfolio compared with the returns of the simple Three-Fund Portfolio. Best wishes. Taylor I don't know how long he's been holding that portfolio,...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 23, 2019 9:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: At what age did you buy your first first class airplane ticket?
Replies: 112
Views: 4420

Re: At what age did you buy your first first class airplane ticket?

I have never bought a first-class ticket. I've been upgraded to first class a few times. Once, and only once, I was given first-class tickets as a gift.
by nisiprius
Mon Apr 22, 2019 8:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is This Typical SSA Screw-up, or Cause for Alarm?
Replies: 22
Views: 2505

Re: Is This Typical SSA Screw-up, or Cause for Alarm?

The quality of responses I've gotten over the phone from SSA has been fairly poor... call it C+. The quality of responses I've gotten physically in person at the local Social Security office, on three or four occasions, has been excellent, call it A. The waiting time hasn't been long on any of those...
by nisiprius
Mon Apr 22, 2019 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Caps vs Large Caps divergence
Replies: 23
Views: 3116

Re: Small Caps vs Large Caps divergence

Historically, from 1926 through 2014 the correlation between small-caps and large-caps was 0.79, i.e. 79%.
by nisiprius
Mon Apr 22, 2019 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 218
Views: 18453

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

There has been something weird about NTSX from the get-go, specifically the strangely disjointed piece of literature that is supposed to make The Case for 90/60 US Balanced Fund (NTSX) , that opens with a chart of the performance of four portfolios, none of which has any relationship to 90/60 that ...
by nisiprius
Mon Apr 22, 2019 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Variance Risk Premium Evidence
Replies: 84
Views: 3634

Re: Larry Swedroe: Variance Risk Premium Evidence

...Did you have as much fun pasting the image with the advertisement as I had fun noticing it?... Oops. I removed the ad and re-posted the image. I assume your phone call was for research purposes only and that you were not actually considering purchasing this fund. That's right. (Email, not phone)...
by nisiprius
Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Variance Risk Premium Evidence
Replies: 84
Views: 3634

Re: Larry Swedroe: Variance Risk Premium Evidence

To access the VRP in a diversified way, investors should consider Stone Ridge Asset Management’s All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund (AVRPX). I was unable to find AVRPX on Morningstar? Best wishes. Taylor That's because it's not a mutual fund, it's a so-called "interval fund." You can't just sell ...
by nisiprius
Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [2018 tax return - How does it compare to previous years?]
Replies: 441
Views: 30780

Re: How did you feel about your 2018 tax returns?

Resentful that Form 1040, which used to a be a single two-sided page, is now splattered across seven pages, most of them half-empty. Yes, I use tax-prep software, but it affects me because part of my preparation process is a final check, using a spreadsheet, to compare simple totals from my forms to...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 21, 2019 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is diversification the point of factor investing?
Replies: 56
Views: 3075

Re: Is diversification the point of factor investing?

Here's another aspect. This is a transcript of what Eugene Fama said, in a video made by DFA and for a long time available on the DFA website: Interviewer: Some people cite your research showing that value and small firms have higher average returns over time and they assume that you would recommend...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 21, 2019 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is diversification the point of factor investing?
Replies: 56
Views: 3075

Re: Is diversification the point of factor investing?

As a skeptic on factor investing, I have trouble stating the premise in a way that factor advocates accept as accurate. But I'm going to try. In the mindset and terminology of modern portfolio theory and CAPM, it is reasonable to look at return, in relation to an aspect of risk that can be described...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 21, 2019 5:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Apple Air
Replies: 20
Views: 1486

Re: Apple Air

It's a kind of Zen question. "What is the meaning of a meaningless name?" The first Apple products with "Air" in its name were introduced in 1999. They were the AirPorts, WiFi add-in cards and routers, used to add WiFi connectivity to Mac products which, at that time, did not have it built-in. Proba...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 21, 2019 5:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient Markets Indeed
Replies: 48
Views: 3871

Re: Efficient Markets Indeed

There was also the company that changed their name to put "block chain" in their name even though they had nothing to do with block chain. You probably mean the Long Island Iced Tea Corp., that changed its name to Long Blockchain Corp. They claimed they were doing something or other with cryptocurr...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 20, 2019 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fundamental Axioms / Laws / Principles of Investing
Replies: 30
Views: 1651

Re: The Fundamental Axioms / Laws / Principles of Investing

John C. Bogle had a list of six maxims, best understood in connection with longer explanations... they are in Common Sense on Mutual Funds . The explanations below are my own. 1) Invest you must. [I.e. the risk of "not putting your money to work" is larger than the risk of volatility] 2) Time is you...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 20, 2019 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Market Cycle of Emotions
Replies: 11
Views: 847

Re: The Market Cycle of Emotions

As depicted, it's close to a perfect sine wave, and I'd say we are somewhere between 132° and 138°. <---Note: irony.
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient Markets Indeed
Replies: 48
Views: 3871

Re: Efficient Markets Indeed

Investors frequently make stupid mistakes due to ticker-symbol or name confusion. It's not rare. People have bought ZOOM instead of ZM, "Tweeter" instead of "Twitter," "Auris Medical Holding AG" instead of "Auris Health," "Oculus Vision Tech" instead of "Oculus VR," "Raptor Pharmaceutical" instead o...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 20, 2019 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?
Replies: 117
Views: 8491

Re: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?

...This is diametrically opposed to the behavior of long term financial markets which, while allowing for bear markets, go up over time... Except when they go to zero, because once they've fallen to zero, they've fallen and they can't get up. Since 1900, this has happened in 2 out of 23 national st...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Factors That Plague Factor Investing
Replies: 44
Views: 3172

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Factors That Plague Factor Investing

In Stay the Course (2019), pp. 93-4, John C. Bogle notes that In 1989, I gave a speech... promising that the creation of separate growth and value index funds "awaits only the development of soundly-constructed... index. Standard & Poor's Corporation introduced both indexes in 1992. We wasted little...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 218
Views: 18453

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

This fund has still only attracted 5 million dollars. That *seems* low, but I’ll admit that I don’t know what a reasonable expectation would be at this point. Well, it is on the ETF Deathwatch list for March, 2019. It was first listed in January, 2019. ETFs get a free pass on their first six months...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedging against hyperinflation scenario
Replies: 47
Views: 3127

Re: Hedging against hyperinflation scenario

...I'm doubtful that either of those things have ever happened. Can you point to an example of the US forbidding transfers to a country with hyperinflation as a retaliatory measure?... Something that sounds like this is happening right now with Venezuela. But only at a high bank-to-bank level, not ...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?
Replies: 117
Views: 8491

Re: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?

I personally think a 5% failure rate is too high--too high for a planning number; I personally like 3% failure I disagree. You disagree that I personally think 5% is too high? Sorry, I don't like it when other people tell me what my personal risk tolerance should be. It does not bother me that ther...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 18, 2019 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?
Replies: 117
Views: 8491

Re: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?

I agree on the use of annuities. (That is: SPIAs, aka "income annuities." Pure insurance). I just want to make one point. Traditional SWR studies used 30 year time horizons. "Living to age 100" implies a 35-year time horizon. It's not that big a difference. For example, Vanguard Target Retirement In...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 18, 2019 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consensus on I Bonds for 2019?
Replies: 67
Views: 10694

Re: Consensus on I Bonds for 2019?

I've done a reversal on I bonds because I didn't realize, until I read a thread in this forum and checked for myself, that electronic I bonds using a "WITH" registration don't work the way I thought they did. One of the appeals of paper savings bonds is that if they are "co-owned," they truly are ow...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In which companies do you own a single share, or token amount, of stock?
Replies: 80
Views: 5178

Re: In which companies do you own a single share, or token amount, of stock?

1) I bought a single share of Target stock, in a presentation frame, as a gift for a granddaughter years ago, when she was maybe thirteen or so. The share price was about $50, but the sort of quasi-scam web-based company in the business of providing grandparents with single shares of grandkid-friend...
by nisiprius
Thu Apr 18, 2019 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Factors That Plague Factor Investing
Replies: 44
Views: 3172

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Factors That Plague Factor Investing

...Stocks and bonds both have positive average returns, so both can deliver positive returns while making a negative contribution to their correlation... Or as someone said during 2008-2009 in this forum, "Low correlation means that during a crash, you get to watch all your asset classes fall at di...
by nisiprius
Wed Apr 17, 2019 1:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: UC funds approximation of the total stock market
Replies: 8
Views: 738

Re: UC funds approximation of the total stock market

With regard to "UC DOM EQ INDEX Large Cap Blend (tracks the 3000 TF index)," "large cap blend" doesn't mean that it is "a large cap fund" that needs small caps. The "3000" number tells me that it is, almost certainly, a total market fund. Sabtastic indicates that it tracks a "tobacco free" version o...
by nisiprius
Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Factors That Plague Factor Investing
Replies: 44
Views: 3172

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Factors That Plague Factor Investing

In the sense that they all have risk, and fractal-like chaotic ups and downs, perhaps market beta is like other factors. However, there are many ways in which it is qualitatively different from the others. If anyone were to actually say it is "just another factor" (Larry Swedroe does not say that in...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Indexed Annuities
Replies: 22
Views: 1176

Re: Fixed Indexed Annuities

...I don't think even they can understand all the complexity that goes into formulating these monsters... FINRA, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority made these points about complexity in their alert: Equity-Indexed Annuities: A Complex Choice Sales of equity-indexed annuities (EIAs)—also kn...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My life insurance company wants to "help me save money"
Replies: 26
Views: 2250

Re: My life insurance company wants to "help me save money"

Can't you get five-year renewable term any more these days? That's what we used. We expected it to increase in price on every renewal date. And we planned to let it lapse at about age 60, which is what we did. We actually had several policies and we let them lapse in sequence, as our savings increas...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Indexed Annuities
Replies: 22
Views: 1176

Re: Fixed Indexed Annuities

I suggest not arguing with this "person you know." Simply engaging with him on the topic gives him a chance to do all the things salespeople are best at. They can talk you into a situation that amounts to agreeing that you must buy the product unless you can convince him that it is bad! Don't be dis...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Indexed Annuities
Replies: 22
Views: 1176

Re: Fixed Indexed Annuities

These used to be called "equity-indexed annuities." They got a very bad name. The product itself is bad enough. There's a book, The Only Guide to Alternative Investments You'll Ever Need: The Good, the Flawed, the Bad, and the Ugly , Larry Swedroe and Jared Kizer, and the table of contents tells you...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market go up in the long term?
Replies: 62
Views: 4611

Re: Why does the stock market go up in the long term?

I see no reason to disagree with the dividend discount theory of stock prices, which is, as you say, "Stock prices reflect the expected net present value of all future earnings." The thing that you are missing is that corporations do not pay out all of those earnings as dividends--not even so-called...
by nisiprius
Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which combination best approximates total US market?
Replies: 4
Views: 445

Re: Which combination best approximates total US market?

I'm trying to determine my best option for approximating the total US stock market with the available funds in my 403(b). If you could choose would you use: A) 81% Vanguard Institutional Index Fund Institutional Plus Shares (VIIIX) 4% Vanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund Admiral Shares (VIMAX) 15% Vanguard ...
by nisiprius
Mon Apr 15, 2019 8:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3742
Views: 1078226

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Spook: Science Tackles the Afterlife, by Mary Roach. Excellent.
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 14, 2019 8:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can TIAA Traditional be my whole "bond" allocation?
Replies: 25
Views: 2794

Re: Can TIAA Traditional be my whole "bond" allocation?

I just tracked TIAA Traditional as a separate category in my spreadsheet. Years after I started doing this, I found that this is basically what TIAA wealth advisors do, they recognize four categories: stocks, bonds, cash, and "insured." I then used the spreadsheet to strike different totals, and mos...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 14, 2019 8:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: No need to file a tax extension form?
Replies: 27
Views: 1732

Re: No need to file a tax extension form?

The extension doesn't give you any extra time to pay. It's not a free way to defer taxes. What the extension does is let you pay based on a good-faith guesstimate, perhaps with a decent safety margin to make sure the errors are on the side of overpayment. And then it takes all the pressure off to fi...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 14, 2019 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does international small cap matter?
Replies: 14
Views: 1717

Re: Does international small cap matter?

Hungrywave, there are two separate discussions going on here. Let me try to summarize. 1) The difference between two international index funds, such as VFWIX and VGTSX, whose main difference is that one of them lacks small-caps, is tiny. There's every reason to expect the difference between FZILX an...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 14, 2019 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Serious Money" book - Free download
Replies: 17
Views: 2409

Re: "Serious Money" book - Free download

Thanks, Rick. If it was "written incognito," did you use a pseudonym, and, if so, what? I'm curious.
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 14, 2019 11:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If you have plenty of money, why not 100% stocks in retirement?
Replies: 107
Views: 7182

Re: If you have plenty of money, why not 100% stocks in retirement?

The answer to "why not 100% stocks?" does not depend on whether you have "plenty of money." You could just as well say "If you have plenty of money, why not 100% bonds?" If you have plenty of money, then it doesn't matter which you do. The answer simply indicates whether you have decreasing relative...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 14, 2019 10:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone have a child model?
Replies: 42
Views: 4560

Re: Anyone have a child model?

I wouldn't dream of it. I try not to be too judgmental, it's well within the range of things people can choose to do and I don't need to like it. But I'm a little judgmental. I think it is inappropriate for parents to try to make serious money out of their infants or children. And the presence of mo...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 14, 2019 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does international small cap matter?
Replies: 14
Views: 1717

Re: Does international small cap matter?

How much has it mattered in the past? VFWIX, Vanguard FTSE All-World Ex-US, without small-caps, blue. VGTSX, Vanguard Total International Stock index, with small-caps--and a skosh more midcaps than VFWIX--orange. Source https://imgur.com/xuhzPfA.png https://imgur.com/nBE4X8U.png Basically, small-cap...
by nisiprius
Sun Apr 14, 2019 6:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1310-2018
Replies: 56
Views: 6173

Re: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1310-2018

I have no idea what to make of it but that's a very interesting post, Simplegift.
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 13, 2019 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETFs vs. Mutual Funds ("Bogleheads Mentioned in the NYT")
Replies: 59
Views: 8430

ETFs vs. Mutual Funds ("Bogleheads Mentioned in the NYT")

For the record, I've used ETFs myself. I didn't mean to cast aspersions on Bogleheads who use ETFs in reasonable ways--not for short-term speculation. Typically, at brokerage-and-mutual-fund-company X, the only index mutual funds available without a transaction fee are X's own funds. If you want one...
by nisiprius
Sat Apr 13, 2019 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on this Forbes article? "Why Most Index Funds And ETFs Are Not Good Investments"
Replies: 76
Views: 10541

Re: Thoughts on this Forbes article? "Why Most Index Funds And ETFs Are Not Good Investments"

...It's important to remember that media outlets like those have one superseding goal: to sell advertising space... Tangential but related. I once asked someone whether some particularly annoying ads were actually effective at selling product, and, if not, why people ran them. He was someone who ha...
by nisiprius
Fri Apr 12, 2019 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund
Replies: 148
Views: 12758

Re: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund

Whatever you believe is going on in the background, we have not had "prolonged high inflation." We haven't had high inflation since Volcker. There hasn't been a hint of inflation in the last twenty years. There’s an adjective missing in the last quoted sentence, I think. We have inflation of some s...