Search found 138 matches

by Runalong
Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aging Populations and Stock/Bond Market Returns
Replies: 31
Views: 5445

Re: Aging Populations and Stock/Bond Market Returns

Projections about future population growth (or decline) rates are based on a number of assumptions that may prove to be self-correcting. The track record of such projections has not been good in the past. If you extend the chart far enough out you'll find that in a few centuries all the countries in...
by Runalong
Tue Feb 24, 2015 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks
Replies: 104
Views: 15963

Re: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks

RunningRad: I don't suppose that most people on this forum plan on their "forever" being 65 more years, although thanks to some of the holdings in Jazz56's IBB etf, some of us MIGHT still be here even in 2130 (though the USA as we know it might not). By the time I'm 80 I'm sure I will have moved eve...
by Runalong
Tue Feb 24, 2015 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks
Replies: 104
Views: 15963

Re: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks

nisiprius: I did think of one example of high-conviciton stocks that sort of constitutes a test (6+ years, 84 picks): http://www.sabrientsystems.com/performance-bakers-dozen-vs-sp500 I began piggy-backing on their annual recommendations a few years ago, cherry-picking 5-6 a year which have outperfor...
by Runalong
Tue Feb 24, 2015 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks
Replies: 104
Views: 15963

Re: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks

nisiprius: I don't know how to formulate an objective test of high-conviction stocks. That's why I only have two and they make up only about 5% of my portfolio. Out of a universe of thousands of stocks, these are the only two I have an emotional attachment to. I feel better about owning them. I woul...
by Runalong
Tue Feb 24, 2015 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks
Replies: 104
Views: 15963

Re: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks

Over its three-year lifespan (so far), Morningstar's MOAT etf has fallen short of the index (VTI). I wouldn't be surprised to see MOAT outperform in bear markets but I suspect that the wide-moat argument is well-enough known that it has already been priced in. OTOH, AAPL is certainly a wide-moat sto...
by Runalong
Mon Feb 23, 2015 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks
Replies: 104
Views: 15963

Re: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks

TradingPlaces- my exit strategy is hopefully die at a ripe old age and let my family sort it out. Under what circumstances would I exit AAPL or BRK.B before that? I'm not sure, like I said it's only 5% and, truth is, I've already exited 80% of my original AAPL purchase as I was getting close to my g...
by Runalong
Mon Feb 23, 2015 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks
Replies: 104
Views: 15963

Re: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks

GE is actually the company I was thinking about when I wrote this post but I'll probably end up putting the money in VSEQX instead.
by Runalong
Mon Feb 23, 2015 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks
Replies: 104
Views: 15963

Re: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks

happyisland: As I said before, I agree in general with the premises of BH's, but I'm not a purist. If everyone on this forum was a purist there wouldn't be much of anything to talk about, would there? nisiprius: at 5% of my portfolio, AAPL and BRK.B work just fine for me if they greatly outperform, ...
by Runalong
Mon Feb 23, 2015 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks
Replies: 104
Views: 15963

Re: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks

I'm sorry happyisland, I missed it: What is the well-established fact regarding individual investors who allocate 5% of their portfolios to a couple of high-conviction stock picks rather than putting it all in index funds? (P.S.: the internet is lousy at communicating emotion. I'm writing these post...
by Runalong
Mon Feb 23, 2015 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks
Replies: 104
Views: 15963

Re: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks

Should I be exasperated or just "LOL" as the kids say? Is there a way to ask a question on this forum of those participants who perchance allow themselves some little exception or other to Generally Accepted Bogleheads Standards without getting inundated by the Holy Bogle Church's own self-appointed...
by Runalong
Mon Feb 23, 2015 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks
Replies: 104
Views: 15963

Re: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks

I thought about adding: if this doesn't apply you don't need to answer but didn't think it necessary. Silly me. Hopefully I won't get a variation of these same reply from EVERYBODY ON THIS FORUM who has sworn off individual stocks. And yes, I understand your reasons but not all of us on this list ar...
by Runalong
Mon Feb 23, 2015 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy and Hold Forever Stocks
Replies: 104
Views: 15963

Buy and Hold Forever Stocks

Those of you who generally subscribe to Bogle-osophy but also have one or more equity positions that you intend to hold onto "forever": which ones are they? I have two: BRK(b) and AAPL.
by Runalong
Mon Feb 23, 2015 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [What to do at] Market Top
Replies: 60
Views: 8504

Re: [What to do at] Market Top

Well, obviously when the market hits a top you should sell all your equities and hold cash until the market hits a new bottom and then reinvest it all in equities again and so on. You would soon be rich. I don't know why everyone doesn't do it! :wink:
by Runalong
Wed Dec 03, 2014 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Momentum Investors Out There?
Replies: 132
Views: 31507

Re: Any Momentum Investors Out There?

I reluctantly use Momentum. It would be dumb not to, but I'm otherwise more comfortable with a Value approach. So yes, I combine them. I have some momentum stocks that are clearly not value-priced and I have some value stocks that show no momentum but mostly I'm looking for equities that combine ele...
by Runalong
Wed Nov 26, 2014 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why do individual investors buy overpriced stocks
Replies: 5
Views: 1204

Re: why do individual investors buy overpriced stocks

I think this sheds some more light on the topic. (short paraphrase: same reason people buy lottery tickets)

http://www.millennialinvest.com/blog/20 ... c9f5e43cd=
by Runalong
Thu Nov 06, 2014 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2014 not a year for stock pickers
Replies: 24
Views: 4782

Re: 2014 not a year for stock pickers

This stock picker is finding the last 10 weeks to be a pretty challenging time period. Fortunately I am highly diversified although foreign funds are also a drag on my returns this year. The challenge of stock picking is that while there are several quantitative approaches that can work over the lon...
by Runalong
Sat Sep 20, 2014 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24292

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

Mine works for me, but I prefer not to share. Joel Greenblatt's Magic Formula and Piotroski have solid track records or check out Sabrient System's (nfi) annual "Baker's Dozen" just to name three of many. Last five year's performance @ http://bakersdozen.sabrient.com/2014-landing-page (plus 17.5% yt...
by Runalong
Sat Sep 20, 2014 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24292

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

I think I made it clear both times that I was only disagreeing with the subset who said that it's impossible to beat the market. In effect they believe that the market is so efficient that at any given moment every stock is priced correctly relative to its prospects, as opposed to those who believe ...
by Runalong
Sat Sep 20, 2014 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24292

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

I would suggest to those of you who hold to an unfalsifiable theory that you at least understand that yours is a faith commitment, not a scientifically valid one. You've set up quite the strawman in the attempt to appear correct. The problem is that even if you are right, it is meaningless. You hav...
by Runalong
Sat Sep 20, 2014 2:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual Stocks
Replies: 46
Views: 6268

Re: Individual Stocks

I own about 30, about half of my portfolio is in individual stocks. I agree with the BH philosophy except for those who say that it is impossible to beat index funds (I agree that it is rare). Beating the index isn't so much about brains as it is about emotions. You pretty much have to have a heart ...
by Runalong
Sat Sep 20, 2014 2:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24292

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

Personally, I'm interested in one specific aspect: whether or not active can beat passive. From my point of view, everything else in the BH mentality is almost self-evident. On this forum, I've seen two Boglehead approaches: those who believe that no one can beat the index, except by chance or luck;...
by Runalong
Fri Sep 12, 2014 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Mid Caps the NEW Small Caps
Replies: 15
Views: 2151

Re: Are Mid Caps the NEW Small Caps

Mid-caps, like large-caps are going to be efficiently priced. The small and micro-cap advantage is when an equity is too small for the big funds to invest in it (not enough shares available) and there is a greater possibility of inefficiencies that can be capitalized on. Theoretically, a "value" sto...
by Runalong
Thu Aug 28, 2014 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How I beat Indexing... in 1 hour
Replies: 89
Views: 20680

Re: How I beat Indexing... in 1 hour

Sure, I'll play. Here are my picks but my time frame is until the end of 2014 so as to eliminate any hint of luck :wink:

(Price at 4:00PM EST, 8/28):

INTC 34.65
LUV 32.05
PES 15.34
HPQ 38.00
PPC 29.87

For reference: VTI 103.58
by Runalong
Thu Jul 24, 2014 12:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money at 62
Replies: 203
Views: 51047

Re: Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money at

If I may veer off, ever so slightly, on a bit of a rabbit trail here... One of the big problems in retirement planning is the need to effectively fund one's self "forever". What if, thanks to science and good fortune, I live to be 110? If everyone died on their 90th birthday it would be a lot easier...
by Runalong
Sun Jul 06, 2014 12:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?
Replies: 91
Views: 12369

Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Since I haven't made any contributions or withdrawals the computation is pretty easy: 8.05% ytd (net of all expenses). 70% equities (highly diversified- funds & individual stocks: approx 30% of that in foreign equities), 30% bonds and alternatives. For comparison: VTI is up 7.4% ytd, VBR is up 9.5%,...
by Runalong
Fri Jun 20, 2014 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Smart Beta ETFs: Two That Deliver The Goods
Replies: 10
Views: 1282

Re: Smart Beta ETFs: Two That Deliver The Goods

yes, as I noted earlier, RPV underperformed (as did value stocks in general, cf RPG) during the correction but the real problem is that it got off to a terrible start even before September 2008. I didn't own it in it's early days but I'm glad I own it now, it did great last year and it's up 9.23% yt...
by Runalong
Fri Jun 20, 2014 1:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Smart Beta ETFs: Two That Deliver The Goods
Replies: 10
Views: 1282

Re: Smart Beta ETFs: Two That Deliver The Goods

RPG vs RPV vs VNIFX vs VO (Vanguard Mid-Cap)

1 year: 27% - 31% - 20% - 21%
3 year: 17% - 20% - 15% - 13%
5 year: 24% - 28% - 18% - 21%
by Runalong
Thu Jun 19, 2014 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Smart Beta ETFs: Two That Deliver The Goods
Replies: 10
Views: 1282

Re: Smart Beta ETFs: Two That Deliver The Goods

If it's not rocket science, why didn't everyone invest in mid-caps during this period.

And besides: compare Vanguard's mid-cap index, not even close...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=VO&t=5y ... =rpv%2Crpg
by Runalong
Thu Jun 19, 2014 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Smart Beta ETFs: Two That Deliver The Goods
Replies: 10
Views: 1282

Smart Beta ETFs: Two That Deliver The Goods

JP Morgan announced their first entry into the ETF universe and it's a global "smart beta" ETF: JPGE I did a little quick checking on S&P 500 smart beta ETFs and found two (only) that actually seems to be smarter than the average beta so far: What is especially interesting is that the two are RPV (v...
by Runalong
Wed Jun 11, 2014 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The usefulness of experts
Replies: 23
Views: 2139

Re: The usefulness of experts

Interesting article, protagonist, but I think financial pundits and experts are different from most others: 1. By the time they declare their prediction publicly, it's based on data that the big money already knows and has been acting on. 2. Whenever an "expert" who is viewed as credible makes a pre...
by Runalong
Tue Jun 10, 2014 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: investing international, why & how much
Replies: 51
Views: 6331

Re: investing international, why & how much

I know it makes sense, and I do it. But the numbers show that EAFE hasn't done zip for you; it's been all about Emerging. For that reason, I'm overweight EM. That sounds like an example of what Larry recommends NOT doing in this article: "One of the most persistent mistakes is what is referred to a...
by Runalong
Mon Jun 09, 2014 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The usefulness of experts
Replies: 23
Views: 2139

The usefulness of experts

After countless articles about how small caps were getting clobbered this year I'm still waiting to read the follow-up story... VBR (for example) was down all of 6% in the first five weeks of the year, is up 14% since Feb 3. Biotechs also got "clobbered", or so I've read. XBI (for example) started a...
by Runalong
Tue Jun 03, 2014 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quality of small-value stocks
Replies: 31
Views: 2947

Re: Quality of small-value stocks

OP, let me save you some time. You just want a SCV option that backtests well, is formulaic, has a good number of stocks, and tracks it's underlying index sufficiently. Just buy some PXSV. Done and done. I've already completed all the homework for you. Over both a one year and five year time period...
by Runalong
Fri May 23, 2014 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GoPro IPO
Replies: 31
Views: 4731

Re: GoPro IPO

I don't see any moat either. I think they are smart to do an IPO right at the height of their popularity and growth. Their marketing strategy has been brilliant so far. I bet it won't be long before smart phones (with a special bracket and/or waterproof case as needed) can do everything GoPro can do.
by Runalong
Wed May 21, 2014 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Going Offroad ["play money" investing]
Replies: 73
Views: 6249

Re: Going Offroad ["play money" investing]

BFG: I understand your desire. Like MP173, stock picking has worked for me. You want to have some fun and it's no fun if it doesn't work so I assume that even though this is play money, you want to be able to "win". To do so you need a quantitative strategy (low P/E outperforms high P/E, etc), you n...
by Runalong
Tue May 06, 2014 12:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: BRK: What am I missing?
Replies: 40
Views: 5190

Re: BRK: What am I missing?

Y'all have given me enough reasons to decide that 5% is enough to put in any one equity, even BH.
Thanks for the input.
by Runalong
Mon May 05, 2014 9:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: BRK: What am I missing?
Replies: 40
Views: 5190

Re: BRK: What am I missing?

How confident do you believe the market would be in that same implicit floor of 1.2x BV option to purchase if the chief executive officer departed for life on another planet? Do not underestimate the effect of WB's absence. PL sounds like a better bet these days. That's a good point, but, as long a...
by Runalong
Mon May 05, 2014 6:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: BRK: What am I missing?
Replies: 40
Views: 5190

Re: BRK: What am I missing?

A lot of interesting discussion, but no one (until Waba, while I was typing this up!) addressed the point I originally brought up: They have a buyback program based on book value. And the cash to see it through. It seems as though this DOES make BRK (BRK.B, by the way, in my case) less risky than mo...
by Runalong
Mon May 05, 2014 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: BRK: What am I missing?
Replies: 40
Views: 5190

BRK: What am I missing?

I'm bullish on Berkshire. It's my biggest holding in my highly diversified portfolio. I'm thinking about buying more and would like to hear about any flaws in my (simple) reasoning. I want to increase the portion of my portfolio that tilts toward "preservation of capital without excluding the possib...
by Runalong
Wed Apr 30, 2014 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone have over 200 individual positions in their accounts?
Replies: 31
Views: 7826

Re: Anyone have over 200 individual positions in their accou

Dulocracy: I don't do market timing. This is about figuring out when to sell a stock. When I sell it I replace it with another. Each year I gradually decrease my overall allocation to stocks since I've gone from desperation (50 years old with a five figure retirement account) to a place where I'm be...
by Runalong
Wed Apr 30, 2014 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone have over 200 individual positions in their accounts?
Replies: 31
Views: 7826

Re: Anyone have over 200 individual positions in their accou

"Sounds like the market is telling you something." Yes, but I haven't quite figured out what. Perhaps: "Nobody knows nothing." I'll go with, "Never stop learning." Anyway, knowledge is overrated. People study and study and study (equities and markets) and still lose. I believe in the Bogleheads' wa...
by Runalong
Wed Apr 30, 2014 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone have over 200 individual positions in their accounts?
Replies: 31
Views: 7826

Re: Anyone have over 200 individual positions in their accou

"Sounds like the market is telling you something." Yes, but I haven't quite figured out what. Although, going back now and analyzing more closely, I seem to have stemmed the problem somewhat in recent months since I cut back my trading from about 2/week to about 1/week. I currently don't have any bi...
by Runalong
Wed Apr 30, 2014 1:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone have over 200 individual positions in their accounts?
Replies: 31
Views: 7826

Re: Anyone have over 200 individual positions in their accou

I limit myself to 50. Right now: 21 funds and 26 equities. I had been reducing the # of equities but further study has shown me that while my portfolio continues to do quite well, both the stocks I've sold recently and the stocks on my wish-list (meet my criteria but I lack cash to buy them) have be...
by Runalong
Sat Apr 12, 2014 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value vs Growth in one sentence
Replies: 3
Views: 802

Value vs Growth in one sentence

Not really a new insight but somehow this crystallized the thoughts I was having trouble boiling down to their essence. Bruce Greenwald, Columbia Business School, on why value outperforms growth: People “will always overpay to try to get rich quick.” aka: "the lottery preference". You CAN get rich q...
by Runalong
Thu Apr 10, 2014 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can too high a % of market indexing become a liability?
Replies: 9
Views: 1650

Re: Can too high a % of market indexing become a liability?

I've been wondering about this too. Re: equities, we have gone from 17% to 35% passive investing in the last 10 years. Indexing is based on the idea that everyone has the same information so the stock is priced to perfection. But 35% of those buying are not even looking at the stock, their purchases...
by Runalong
Wed Apr 02, 2014 11:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV: has the small or the value kinda fallen out of favor??
Replies: 28
Views: 2981

Re: SCV: has the small or the value kinda fallen out of favo

I remember many saying at the beginning of the year that scv stocks were over-priced and it was time to shift to large value. There is a good case to be made for that and there have been long periods when scv underperformed. However, timing one's allocations (vs formulaic rebalancing) is always a tr...
by Runalong
Tue Mar 25, 2014 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index weighting variations
Replies: 23
Views: 1901

Re: Index weighting variations

Time will tell. Here's a pretty decent argument in favor (re: Schwab's versions):

http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/ ... ?id=640658
by Runalong
Tue Mar 18, 2014 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there another Berkshire out there?
Replies: 20
Views: 3264

Re: Is there another Berkshire out there?

To begin with we probably don't disagree on much of anything here except for a minor quibble or two. But I do think that a basket of conglomerates (BRKB, MKL, LUK, GE, HUWHY, BAM, etc), held "forever" can be a good proxy for a standard index fund- lower fees and generally above-average management.