Search found 138 matches

by Runalong
Tue Mar 18, 2014 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there another Berkshire out there?
Replies: 20
Views: 3263

Re: Is there another Berkshire out there?

Millions of money managers, hedge funds, active mutual funds, etc. out there. Good luck picking the few that are going to outperform after fees over the next couple of decades. Whatever index funds you are investing in have higher fees than what investors in Berkshire are paying (i.e., 0%). Good lu...
by Runalong
Tue Mar 18, 2014 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there another Berkshire out there?
Replies: 20
Views: 3263

Re: Is there another Berkshire out there?

LUK was once brilliant, beating BH for decades but it seems to have lost its mojo the last 5 years or more. Maybe it will bounce back but I feel a lot safer with BH. A lot of people would suggest GE as a somewhat similar investment but for greater diversification I've got a little bit of money in HU...
by Runalong
Tue Mar 18, 2014 1:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in stocks--A surprising Google report ?
Replies: 37
Views: 5105

Re: Investing in stocks--A surprising Google report ?

We also know that people stink at investing, they sell and buy at precisely the wrong times, so even though there has been enormous potential to grow wealth with stocks people in general fail to capitalize and wind up losing money. Logically, the more true this statement is, the easier it should be...
by Runalong
Thu Mar 06, 2014 12:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saying an asset is "undervalued" is pretty profound.
Replies: 32
Views: 2922

Re: Saying an asset is "undervalued" is pretty profound.

Stocks will stop being under- or over- valued when investors stop being emotional about money (greed/fear). I'm a good stock picker not because I know so much (most people on this forum seem to be a lot smarter and better educated about markets than I am) but because I use (unemotional) quantitative...
by Runalong
Thu Mar 06, 2014 12:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Price of Outperformance
Replies: 35
Views: 4811

Re: The Price of Outperformance

If I understand mutual funds correctly, a manager would have to be a genius to even break even. Money flows in when stocks are rising, and the more they rise, the faster it comes in. And the opposite during corrections. So when stocks are expensive, you have too much cash- you either have to buy sto...
by Runalong
Wed Mar 05, 2014 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do investors prefer cash dividends?
Replies: 126
Views: 8988

Re: Why do investors prefer cash dividends?

In order to know whether or not dividends are a good idea, we would have to look at the characteristics of companies that pay dividends vs those that do not. I don't believe we would find that they are exactly the same except that group A pays dividends and group B doesn't. I'm glad I owned AAPL whe...
by Runalong
Tue Mar 04, 2014 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asness & Liew on EMH
Replies: 3
Views: 687

Asness & Liew on EMH

Best thing I've read in quite a while...

http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/Ar ... xYAFNwwnnY
by Runalong
Sun Mar 02, 2014 1:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett's new letter
Replies: 13
Views: 1886

Re: Warren Buffett's new letter

I also own VDC and you're right in that, measured by share price, VDC outperformed BRK-B during the last big downturn (2008-9). Good point.
by Runalong
Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett's new letter
Replies: 13
Views: 1886

Re: Warren Buffett's new letter

My point was that if you are looking for a consistently appreciating asset that doesn't correlate with the S&P, you can't do much better than B/H. I'd like to own a bunch of high quality bonds paying 5% but that isn't an option for me right now. I don't see how bond funds significantly decrease my r...
by Runalong
Sat Mar 01, 2014 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett's new letter
Replies: 13
Views: 1886

Warren Buffett's new letter

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2013ltr.pdf A while back I mentioned that I preferred BRK.B to cash as a defensive play. Looking at page 1, I see that by WB's method of valuation, B/H has outperformed the S&P in years in which the S&P was down, by 275% (non-compounded), or about 25% a year....
by Runalong
Tue Feb 11, 2014 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active fund picking and Alpha (cf VGHCX)
Replies: 2
Views: 477

Active fund picking and Alpha (cf VGHCX)

I'm not taking a position, I'm just intrigued. What do you all think? The performance of VGHCX would seem to offer some anecdotal support.

http://www.morningstar.com/advisor/t/87 ... z2t2euiVSR
by Runalong
Thu Jan 23, 2014 4:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your one big takeaway from the Crash of 2008?
Replies: 379
Views: 67240

Re: What's your one big takeaway from the Crash of 2008?

Investing is all about temperament. I was all out B&H. Went down, down, down. Stopped reading or looking at the market for about 6 months. Didn't do a thing. Lost over 50%. Today I'm way up from where I was in 2008. Part of that is for reasons that totally contradict much of the Bogleheads' philosop...
by Runalong
Thu Jan 16, 2014 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coin Flipping Outdoes Active Fund Managers
Replies: 18
Views: 2219

Re: Coin Flipping Outdoes Active Fund Managers

Mutual fund managers have to deal with cash inflows whenever the market (and/or their particular fund) is doing particularly well and cash outflows when the opposite occurs. They have no choice but to buy when the cash comes in (at high prices) and sell when it goes out (at low prices). And they alw...
by Runalong
Fri Dec 27, 2013 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread
Replies: 57
Views: 6946

Re: 2014 Boglehead Predictions Thread

Sure, why not? International (non-US) dividend funds (all cap sizes, both emerging and developed) will considerably outperform the S&P. Muni bonds will do very well. Telecoms will do quite well, as will biotechnology and financials. TIPS will do pretty well. Stocks will rise about 2% a month for the...
by Runalong
Wed Dec 18, 2013 1:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AAII Stock Superstars Portfolio
Replies: 2
Views: 782

Re: AAII Stock Superstars Portfolio

I belong to AAII, it's cheap ($29) and they have great advice for anyone who likes to dabble in stock picking (AAII is non-profit). I don't subscribe to the Superstars Portfolio ($149) but I expect it to continue outperforming. They choose stocks based on the 60 or so stock screens they run each mon...
by Runalong
Mon Dec 02, 2013 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ Bogle Father/Son article
Replies: 16
Views: 2361

Re: Bogle v Bogle

well, help me out then, i looked back to Nov 28 (the date of the article) and didn't see any subject headings that seemed to fit.
by Runalong
Mon Dec 02, 2013 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ Bogle Father/Son article
Replies: 16
Views: 2361

Bogle v Bogle

[I merged this thread into here. --admin LadyGeek] I suppose Junior's active approach (link below) has been discussed here before but I tend to bop in and out of this forum sporadically so I may have missed it. While I agree that a passive indexing approach is best for the vast majority of investor...
by Runalong
Sat Nov 16, 2013 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Questioning role of Emerging Markets
Replies: 58
Views: 7047

Re: Questioning role of Emerging Markets

Ever since I read about this study (Emerging Market Outperformance: Public‐Traded Affiliates of Multinational Corporations, links below) I've been waiting for an ETF to come out based on the concept. So far (almost 2 years later) not even a rumor. If someone builds it, at a reasonable cost, I will p...
by Runalong
Thu Nov 14, 2013 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO seems cheap right now
Replies: 183
Views: 41979

Re: VWO seems cheap right now

Re: FNDE- It's a new fund, I think the yield just hasn't been determined yet.
by Runalong
Thu Nov 14, 2013 12:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much Cash Should Your Portfolio Have?
Replies: 44
Views: 9411

Re: How Much Cash Should Your Portfolio Have?

I agree that cash is useful for emotional reasons but not for mathematical ones. It may help you sleep better but it will compromise your returns over the long haul. My advice: if you want some cash so you can bottom feed after a correction, buy BRK instead. They're currently holding about $40B (abo...
by Runalong
Thu Nov 14, 2013 12:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO seems cheap right now
Replies: 183
Views: 41979

Re: VWO seems cheap right now

I'm impressed by FNDC and FNDE (I hold FNDE myself).
by Runalong
Thu Nov 14, 2013 12:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CNBC: iBillionaire Index: Investing like a billionaire
Replies: 13
Views: 2074

Re: CNBC: iBillionaire Index: Investing like a billionaire

I was looking at this today. On the website's holdings page they list 30 holdings. Of those paying a dividend of 2% or more, 2 beat the median and 9 lagged. Of those paying less (all of which were less than 1.5%), 13 beat, 2 lagged and 4 approximately matched. Which would (forgive the over-generaliz...
by Runalong
Tue Aug 23, 2011 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum really is bunk?
Replies: 73
Views: 7719

I would guess that momentum investing would create something of a positive feedback loop; momentum attracts investors which increases the stock price which increases and validates momentum. At some point value investors would feel the stock has become overpriced and would sell (or at least stop buyi...
by Runalong
Tue Aug 23, 2011 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum really is bunk?
Replies: 73
Views: 7719

Found a reference to my original question: Belsky & Gilovich: Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes, pp56f They cite a "gargantuan" 1997 study by Odean and Barber that found that investors were more likely to sell stocks that had risen in price than those that had fallen and that stocks sold by i...
by Runalong
Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum really is bunk?
Replies: 73
Views: 7719

Well, Taylor, I read your book so I knew YOU would say that. I assume there is a study or two somewhere refuting momentum as a short-term predictor of stock prices? Anyone have a link? What is interesting is that for the most part books on investor psychology would largely agree with the Boglehead p...
by Runalong
Tue Aug 23, 2011 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum really is bunk?
Replies: 73
Views: 7719

Momentum really is bunk?

OK, call me a heretic but I do own some individual stocks. As I understand Bogle-osophy: any stock's price at any moment reflects everything that is known about it and therefore it is virtually (or totally) impossible to predict if any given stock will outperform or underperform the market as a whol...
by Runalong
Sat Aug 13, 2011 1:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lake Nogebow - where everybody is below average.
Replies: 42
Views: 4861

paddyshack,

well, it's the kind of speculation I'm looking for. :)

thanks
by Runalong
Fri Aug 12, 2011 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lake Nogebow - where everybody is below average.
Replies: 42
Views: 4861

so bearwolf- are you arguing that OVER THE LONG RUN- a) virtually all active traders end up with average results. b) virtually all active traders end up with below average results. or some underperform and some overperform (over the long run)? If you answer (a) or (b), then why isn't the average per...
by Runalong
Fri Aug 12, 2011 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lake Nogebow - where everybody is below average.
Replies: 42
Views: 4861

JDInvestor wrote:I find this article great for thinking about above and below average markt performance:

http://www.ilukacg.com/articles/Tao%20of%20Alpha.pdf
Good stuff. It's a zero-sum game (before expenses). Outperformance = Underperformance and vice versa.
by Runalong
Fri Aug 12, 2011 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lake Nogebow - where everybody is below average.
Replies: 42
Views: 4861

thanks Peter. so maybe virtually all underperformance CAN be traced to expenses. I do still tend to believe that among individual investors the ones who greatly outperform the market are primarily those who didn't diversify and just happened to "win the lottery" by hitching their wagon to the right ...
by Runalong
Fri Aug 12, 2011 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lake Nogebow - where everybody is below average.
Replies: 42
Views: 4861

I'm going to take a stab at answering my own question now that I've thought about it all day. Remember that I'm looking at that portion of performance that is not attributable to costs. Passive indexers do not affect the index other than to dampen its volatility. The index is no higher or lower beca...
by Runalong
Fri Aug 12, 2011 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lake Nogebow - where everybody is below average.
Replies: 42
Views: 4861

spencer99: thank-you, thank-you, thank-you!

at least someone understands my question!
by Runalong
Fri Aug 12, 2011 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lake Nogebow - where everybody is below average.
Replies: 42
Views: 4861

kyleAAA- you posted while i was writing. that's one of the things i'm wondering about. anecdotely it seems like there would be a lot of people losing the game but maybe not? i'm reading books on investor psychology that talk about all the dumb mistakes active traders make and why and they all endors...
by Runalong
Fri Aug 12, 2011 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lake Nogebow - where everybody is below average.
Replies: 42
Views: 4861

pwm's comment, if accurate, is the only one that addresses my issue directly. if all underperformance can be traced to fees and trading expenses, then the mystery is solved. i got the impression though that there was also a lot of underperformance due to poor timing (selling after the mkt has droppe...
by Runalong
Fri Aug 12, 2011 1:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lake Nogebow - where everybody is below average.
Replies: 42
Views: 4861

Lake Nogebow - where everybody is below average.

OK, this is probably a dumb question since it is based on a lot of things I think I remember from all the books and "internets" I've been reading and studying this summer but here goes. If I remember correctly: individual investors generally underperform the market. Likewise the vast majority of act...
by Runalong
Tue Jun 14, 2011 9:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any runners, hikers or backpackers?
Replies: 43
Views: 4412

In it for the long run

I started running 14 years ago (at age 42). In the last decade I've done over 60 ultramarathons. There a lot of good metaphors for investing and for life. Staying the course, etc. I'll be running the Western States 100M again in 11 days.
by Runalong
Mon Jun 13, 2011 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any Studies on Long-term Market Timing?
Replies: 224
Views: 44106

long-term timing and 17-yr cycles?

I'm new here and thought maybe this topic would say something about Buffett's 17-year market cycle theory. It seems to correlate pretty well back to 1929 with the last up cycle ending in 1999 and it makes sense from an investor psychology standpoint (it takes a long time to "forget"). Someone who bo...