## Search found 1556 matches

Wed Aug 21, 2013 6:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Replies: 909
Views: 166289

I mostly drink hefeweisen and Berliner weisse; you can get good hefes (Weihenstephaner, Ayinger, Schneider Weisse, Franziskaner, etc.) for \$2 - \$4 for a half-liter bottle. The 1809 Berliner weisse that I like is between \$7 and \$8 for a half-liter bottle.
Wed Aug 21, 2013 11:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Door to door annoyances--easy way to stop?
Replies: 60
Views: 5728

### Re: Door to door annoyances--easy way to stop?

Years ago a Jehovah's Witness came to our door, and I answered it. He started telling me how the New Testament in the King James Bible was an inaccurate translation of the original Greek (never mind that the original was largely Aramaic), with all sorts of specific examples. I asked him if he were s...
Wed Aug 21, 2013 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Replies: 53
Views: 7040

### Re: Your biggest work victory?

When I was a warhead designer I was working on a project that was far more complex than anything we'd done before......... Now that you told us, I hope you don't have to kill us. :confused No . . . you're all safe. I believe. The projects on which I worked were (almost) exclusively defensive, anti-...
Wed Aug 21, 2013 12:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Let’s call it “expected return”
Replies: 86
Views: 8729

### Re: Let’s call it “expected return”

555 wrote:geometric mean < arithmetic mean
Almost:

geometric mean arithmetic mean
Wed Aug 21, 2013 12:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Let’s call it “expected return”
Replies: 86
Views: 8729

### Re: Let’s call it “expected return”

Well, with indexing, "bankruptcy" would mean the us TSM goes to zero. Or SCV goes to zero, and hits the boundary to produce the skew? I'm sure it doesn't mean that at all. It probably means that if, in retirement, the portfolio owner withdraws money periodically from this portfolio, the money will ...
Tue Aug 20, 2013 1:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Replies: 53
Views: 7040

### Re: Your biggest work victory?

When I was a warhead designer I was working on a project that was far more complex than anything we'd done before; indeed, it was far more complex than anything anyone had done before. We were given three design iterations to achieve the goal, which was typical. The first design was a disaster : the...
Mon Aug 05, 2013 3:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gardening, the new year
Replies: 90
Views: 13007

### Re: Gardening, the new year

We generally grow tomatoes, herbs, and peppers (in Southern California). This year I'm finally – finally! - getting some ghost chilies (after two years). I also have cayennes, serranos, fresnos, poblanos, arboles, kung paos (which I think are a cayenne hybrid), and habaneros. The downside is the pes...
Sun Aug 04, 2013 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Euro currency question
Replies: 13
Views: 1013

### Re: Euro currency question

ourbrooks wrote:It's relative demand, not the state of economies, which determine exchange rates.
Interest rate parity affects changes in exchange rates; arguably, interest rates depend on the states of the economies.
Sat Aug 03, 2013 11:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monte Carlo Simulator for today's low yields?
Replies: 6
Views: 1098

### Re: Monte Carlo Simulator for today's low yields?

I have used the T. Rowe Price Monte Carlo simulator but I believe it uses past data . Are there any good simulators that account for interest rates this low or is that scenario already incorporated into the simulators that are out there? You know that Monte Carlo simulation uses random numbers gene...
Fri Aug 02, 2013 11:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best E-Reader: Kindle, Nook or?
Replies: 46
Views: 6032

### Re: Best E-Reader: Kindle, Nook or?

My wife has a Kindle and loves it.

I hate 'em all. I want a real book.
Fri Aug 02, 2013 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why rebalance into bonds?
Replies: 58
Views: 7716

### Re: Why rebalance into bonds?

It's been said a few times already in this thread. Rebalancing is about maintaining a risk profile. 80% stocks/20% fixed income, 70%/30%, 50%/50%, 30%/70%, whatever helps you sleep at night. If you don't care about maintaining a risk profile, then you don't care. But that is what rebalancing is abo...
Wed Jul 31, 2013 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Losses: Starting Interest Rates Matter
Replies: 99
Views: 9895

### Re: Bond Losses: Starting Interest Rates Matter

My main point was that each rate increase lowers NAV and pushes out any eventual Point of Indifference farther in time. Oh? Let's take the simplest case - a zero coupon bond. Suppose I buy a five year zero with a yield to maturity of 1%. The duration is five years which is the same as the maturity ...
Tue Jul 30, 2013 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Data on stock diversification?
Replies: 15
Views: 1011

### Re: Data on stock diversification?

Essay by William Bernstein: The 15-Stock Diversification Myth . His conclusion: So, yes, Virginia, you can eliminate nonsytematic portfolio risk, as defined by Modern Portfolio Theory, with a relatively few stocks. It’s just that nonsystematic risk is only a small part of the puzzle. Fifteen stocks...
Tue Jul 30, 2013 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Data on stock diversification?
Replies: 15
Views: 1011

### Re: Data on stock diversification?

Essay by William Bernstein: The 15-Stock Diversification Myth . His conclusion: So, yes, Virginia, you can eliminate nonsytematic portfolio risk, as defined by Modern Portfolio Theory, with a relatively few stocks. It’s just that nonsystematic risk is only a small part of the puzzle. Fifteen stocks...
Tue Jul 30, 2013 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why rebalance into bonds?
Replies: 58
Views: 7716

### Re: Why rebalance into bonds?

We’ve just done a study for the NYTimes on rebalancing, so the subject is fresh in my mind. Fact: a 48%S&P 500, 16% small cap, 16% international, and 20% bond index, over the past 20 years, earned a 9.49% annual return without rebalancing and a 9.71% return if rebalanced annually. That’s worth desc...
Tue Jul 30, 2013 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Data on stock diversification?
Replies: 15
Views: 1011

### Re: Data on stock diversification?

The typical number given is 30, but the piece that many investors (and practitioners) omit is that not any old collection of 30 stocks will do; they have to be 30 carefully chosen stocks: chosen specifically to eliminate (i.e., reduce to near nil) nonsystematic (idiosyncratic) risk.
Tue Jul 30, 2013 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why rebalance into bonds?
Replies: 58
Views: 7716

### Re: Why rebalance into bonds?

We’ve just done a study for the NYTimes on rebalancing, so the subject is fresh in my mind. Fact: a 48%S&P 500, 16% small cap, 16% international, and 20% bond index, over the past 20 years, earned a 9.49% annual return without rebalancing and a 9.71% return if rebalanced annually. That’s worth desc...
Tue Jul 30, 2013 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why rebalance into bonds?
Replies: 58
Views: 7716

### Re: Why rebalance into bonds?

Rebalancing moves money from over performing assets to under performing assets that will assumably catch up while the over performers wil take a break or decline for some interval . Why do we assume that? Probably because you would either believe in reversion to the mean or you don't believe one as...
Tue Jul 30, 2013 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why rebalance into bonds?
Replies: 58
Views: 7716

### Re: Why rebalance into bonds?

Rebalancing moves money from over performing assets to under performing assets that will assumably catch up while the over performers wil take a break or decline for some interval . Why do we assume that? Probably because you would either believe in reversion to the mean or you don't believe one as...
Tue Jul 30, 2013 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happens to stock prices if everyone index invests?
Replies: 42
Views: 5646

### Re: What happens to stock prices if everyone index invests?

techcrium wrote:Wow I didn't realize that my thread generated so much hate.
There is no hate here.

Since when did mild (or even major) criticism become hate?

Ridiculous!
Tue Jul 30, 2013 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happens to stock prices if everyone index invests?
Replies: 42
Views: 5646

### Re: What happens to stock prices if everyone index invests?

If everyone indexed, then there would be no individual stocks to index with. Companies wouldn't be able to issue new stock, because if it weren't a part of the index there'd be no one to buy it. Unless someone created the just-issued stock (or, perhaps better, the just-issued security (to cover bon...
Mon Jul 29, 2013 11:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V
Replies: 3372
Views: 1501712

### Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V

Designing Miracles, by Darwin Ortiz.
Mon Jul 29, 2013 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are oil futures doomed to persistent contango?
Replies: 10
Views: 826

### Re: Are oil futures doomed to persistent contango?

Edit: You can extend the logic to entire future curve. When entire future curve is sloping down it is in contango and when the curve slopes upward it is in backwardation. Other way 'round: Contango means that there is an upward-sloping futures price curve (futures prices are higher the farther into...
Mon Jul 29, 2013 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why rebalance into bonds?
Replies: 58
Views: 7716

### Re: Why rebalance into bonds?

Rebalancing moves money from over performing assets to under performing assets that will assumably catch up while the over performers wil take a break or decline for some interval . Why do we assume that? Probably because you would either believe in reversion to the mean or you don't believe one as...
Mon Jul 29, 2013 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why rebalance into bonds?
Replies: 58
Views: 7716

### Re: Why rebalance into bonds?

Rebalancing moves money from over performing assets to under performing assets that will assumably catch up while the over performers wil take a break or decline for some interval . Why do we assume that? Probably because you would either believe in reversion to the mean or you don't believe one as...
Mon Jul 29, 2013 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why rebalance into bonds?
Replies: 58
Views: 7716

### Re: Why rebalance into bonds?

And why does nearly everyone here believe that "rebalancing" means returning to a constant mix? There are other forms of rebalancing. Well, my initial questions was directed at people who choose to maintain a constant percentage stock/bond portfolio and actively re-balance to fit that fixed percent...
Mon Jul 29, 2013 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why rebalance into bonds?
Replies: 58
Views: 7716

### Re: Why rebalance into bonds?

And why does nearly everyone here believe that "rebalancing" means returning to a constant mix?

There are other forms of rebalancing.
Mon Jul 29, 2013 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why rebalance into bonds?
Replies: 58
Views: 7716

### Re: Why rebalance into bonds?

StarbuxInvestor wrote:Rebalancing moves money from over performing assets to under performing assets that will assumably catch up while the over performers wil take a break or decline for some interval.
Why do we assume that?
Sun Jul 28, 2013 5:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mayo Clinic
Replies: 7
Views: 992

### Re: Mayo Clinic

Wish I could help.

All I know about the Mayo Clinic is that last November I had my right ACL replaced by Joseph Mayo, in Placentia, CA. Yes: he's one of those Mayos.

Best of luck to you and your wife; you'll be in our prayers.
Sun Jul 28, 2013 12:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Math degrees
Replies: 70
Views: 7187

### Re: Math degrees

You might investigate the CFA program (Chartered Financial Analyst) a 2 - 4yr math heavy program. Employed by mutual funds, retirement funds, endowments, insurance companies, hedge funds etc. Course heavy in accounting and statistics. Employment opportunities appear good...Gordon Amen: I have a Bac...
Sun Jul 28, 2013 12:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Stumped by a Stump
Replies: 49
Views: 5648

### Re: Stumped by a Stump

Sat Jul 27, 2013 11:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Math degrees
Replies: 70
Views: 7187

### Re: Math degrees

So... what types of jobs are typically available to a new graduate with a math degree? I have a Bachelor's in Math and a Master's in Math (and a Bachelor's in Accounting). My business degree has never gotten me a job anywhere (though it was quite useful when I was studying for the CFA exams). Here'...
Sat Jul 27, 2013 12:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CFA Results
Replies: 30
Views: 4028

### Re: CFA Results

Magician's CFA bogleheads thread from over a year ago, inspired me to start the process: How many CFA charterholders have we here? This is the second time in a week that someone has started a thread (one here, one on a magicians' forum) accusing me of having inspired them. I'm definitely going to h...
Fri Jul 26, 2013 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Many Myths of Warren Buffett
Replies: 29
Views: 6116

### Re: The Many Myths of Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett isn't afraid of the dark; the dark is afraid of Warren Buffett.

Oh, wait . . . that's somebody else.
Thu Jul 25, 2013 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are behavioral funds superior?
Replies: 4
Views: 597

### Re: are behavioral funds superior?

Looking at our wiki - the common behavioral pitfalls are: 2.1 Overconfidence 2.2 Loss aversion 2.3 Herd behavior 2.4 Anchoring 2.5 Confirmation bias 2.6 Gambler's fallacy 2.7 Recency bias 2.8 Regret aversion 2.9 Mental accounting 2.10 Paralysis by analysis I'm guessing that they focus on 2.10: don'...
Thu Jul 25, 2013 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Losses: Starting Interest Rates Matter
Replies: 99
Views: 9895

### Re: Bond Losses: Starting Interest Rates Matter

Is there anything more going on here than merely observing that a (normal, option-free) bond's duration is higher when the YTM is low, and lower when the YTM is high? If you mean the OP's initial conclusion, then it's simpler than that: if you set a fixed target (like zero returns), the high starti...
Wed Jul 24, 2013 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Losses: Starting Interest Rates Matter
Replies: 99
Views: 9895

### Re: Bond Losses: Starting Interest Rates Matter

Is there anything more going on here than merely observing that a (normal, option-free) bond's duration is higher when the YTM is low, and lower when the YTM is high?

That's pretty well-known.
Wed Jul 24, 2013 2:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CFA Results
Replies: 30
Views: 4028

### Re: CFA Results

TheOscarGuy wrote:
magician wrote:
TheOscarGuy wrote:Congratulations!
I have been thinking about giving this exam for a while now. I don't work in finance but just want to read up and see if I can pass level I for the heck of it.
It's a [heck] of an undertaking.
Makes it more worthwhile to attempt I suppose
Good attitude!
Wed Jul 24, 2013 2:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CFA Results
Replies: 30
Views: 4028

### Re: CFA Results

Busting Myths wrote:Just passed Level II. Will be sitting for Level III in June 2014.
Congratulations!
Wed Jul 24, 2013 1:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CFA Results
Replies: 30
Views: 4028

### Re: CFA Results

TheOscarGuy wrote:Congratulations!
I have been thinking about giving this exam for a while now. I don't work in finance but just want to read up and see if I can pass level I for the heck of it.
It's a [heck] of an undertaking.
Wed Jul 24, 2013 10:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CFA Results
Replies: 30
Views: 4028

### Re: CFA Results

How long were you guys involved in the FA field before deciding to take the exams? I have been in the field a little over a year and this is something that really interests me in pursuing. Thanks! I'd worked at PIMCO for about three years, but I didn't decide to take the exams; that was . . . um . ...
Wed Jul 24, 2013 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CFA Results
Replies: 30
Views: 4028

### Re: CFA Results

dodonnell wrote:Just passed Level II. Registered for Level III for June 2014.
... passed Level I this past December 2012.
Congratulations²!
Tue Jul 23, 2013 11:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CFA Results
Replies: 30
Views: 4028

### Re: CFA Results

rmelvey wrote:Anyone else take the CFA? Results came out today. I passed level one
Congratulations!

Are you on AnalystForum? Lots of people there are posting their results today: Levels I and II.
Mon Jul 22, 2013 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New in wiki - Bond Yield, Looking for feedback
Replies: 12
Views: 2477

### Re: New in wiki - Bond Yield, Looking for feedback

Yield-to-worst is described as the smallest yield measure of all the possible yields that can be computed for the issue. Not quite: it's the smallest of yield-to-maturity, yield-to-call (or yield-to-first-call, yield-to-second-call, . . .), yield-to-redemption, and so on, but not yield-to-put. You ...
Mon Jul 22, 2013 12:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Give a Detailed Explanation of Duration Please!
Replies: 20
Views: 1420

### Re: Give a Detailed Explanation of Duration Please!

(Other things can happen with non-conventional bonds. For example, if interest rates fall, the duration of a callable bond will fall because it becomes more likely that the bond will be called.) This is true if interest rates are low enough that the callable bond has negative convexity. When intere...
Sun Jul 21, 2013 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New in wiki - Bond Yield, Looking for feedback
Replies: 12
Views: 2477

### Re: New in wiki - Bond Yield, Looking for feedback

Two comments: When describing how to compute the YTM, I'm not sure that specifying the numerical methods used (binary search, Newton-Raphson) is appropriate; I'd suggest saying merely that the value is computed numerically, rather than analytically. (If you want to include the numerical methods, I s...
Sun Jul 21, 2013 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New in wiki - Bond Yield, Looking for feedback
Replies: 12
Views: 2477

### Re: New in wiki - Bond Yield, Looking for feedback

When I find myself questioning a standard reference text, it's probably a bad sign... :) The first two YTM calculators that come up on google here and here give a YTM for the 15 year zero coupon bond as 8.99%. Interestingly, tweaking a few numbers for Fidelity's calculator here gives 8.81% for a se...
Sun Jul 21, 2013 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New in wiki - Bond Yield, Looking for feedback
Replies: 12
Views: 2477

### Re: New in wiki - Bond Yield, Looking for feedback

The convention in discussing yields on bonds is BEY . If you look at a Treasury yield curve (par curve, spot curve, forward curve), the yields shown are BEYs. When Kai Ryssdal says that the yield on the 10-year T-Note dropped to 2.49%, he's describing the bond's BEY. When you sell a bond, or buy a ...
Sun Jul 21, 2013 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Duration and Changes in Interest Rates
Replies: 2
Views: 464

### Re: Bond Duration and Changes in Interest Rates

The Wiki has an excellent summary on Bond Duration and Convexity. http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Bonds:_Advanced_Topics I'm wondering why a conventional bond with no call features has positive convexity. Is that simply the result of market forces, or is it also inherent in the formula for bond dura...
Sun Jul 21, 2013 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Give a Detailed Explanation of Duration Please!
Replies: 20
Views: 1420