Search found 3722 matches

by Aptenodytes
Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Replies: 27
Views: 5453

Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

I toyed around with a different way to present this information, The main changes are: + It goes back to 1985 + I tried to cover the most-utilized asset categories among Bogleheads (e.g. I added REITs and I dropped international-developed) + As does the Callan table it stacks each asset category in ...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Jan 09, 2017 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Over what time period should stocks NOT lose money
Replies: 50
Views: 5722

Re: Over what time period should stocks NOT lose money

I think the OP's question is a very useful way to frame risk -- it has much more intuitive punch than things like standard deviations and it relates very directly to an aspect of the portfolio that has real decision-relevance. It also lends itself well to visualization. Below is a chart made from th...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Jan 08, 2017 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Monitoring returns
Replies: 1
Views: 410

Re: Monitoring returns

1) to track returns you only need to monitor contributions, withdrawals and balances. No need to track things like commissions, dividends and fees--their impact shows up in the balance. 2) there are several options for how to track your returns. Search the forum for terms like "personal returns" or ...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much inflation do Bogleheads predict?
Replies: 13
Views: 1676

Re: How much inflation do Bogleheads predict?

You can make sensible decisions about managing inflation risk without making a specific quantitative prediction about the inflation rate. You do the same kind of thing when you decide what types of insurance coverage to get on your car, which health plan to select, which washing machine to buy, etc....
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can someone explain Vanguard's higher turnover rates vs Index Funds?
Replies: 22
Views: 3001

Re: Can someone explain Vanguard's higher turnover rates vs Index Funds?

Both funds have the same maturity profiles. My guess is that more investors use the Treasury fund as a temporary parking lot for money moving in and out of equities and that people in the government bond fund are more likely to be sitting tight for the longer term. As far as I can fathom there's mor...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Requirements to change passwords frequently?
Replies: 42
Views: 4018

Re: Requirements to change passwords frequently?

My employer requires it. My impression is that the more a place takes cybersecurity seriously across the board, the more likely they are to require frequent password changes. It makes intuitive sense to me. E.g. sometimes hackers get hold of lists of usernames and passwords. The more often you chang...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?
Replies: 105
Views: 10274

Re: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?

This discussion is timely for me as I am using I-ORP to run some retirement scenarios. This tool requires users to peer into the crystal ball and tell it what inflation will be over the 30 or 40 years of your retirement. Other such tools have a similar annoying requirement. If I knew the answer to ...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dilemma: bonds, cash or 100% stocks for now in present climate?
Replies: 55
Views: 6188

Re: Dilemma: bonds, cash or 100% stocks for now in present climate?

Where to put your bond money can be tricky, but if you overthink it you'll make mistakes. There's no way to offer any suggestions without knowing what you have available to you. Different accounts have different restrictions. In your account, can you buy CDs? Can you buy individual bonds? Do you hav...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Jan 02, 2017 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?
Replies: 105
Views: 10274

Re: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?

I am still trying to understand what personal planning decision is impacted by assuming inflation is 2.9% versus 3.5% (versus whatever). What exactly would one do differently as a result of analysis with different inputs? What's the decision point being addressed? Grogs gave one -- if you have a pe...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1971
Views: 366987

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Up 9.18% in 2016. 2016 returns: +4.67% VTIAX -8.99% VGHCX So if most of your funds were medicocre to down, how do you explain your up 9.18% performance? I gotta get some of that. Well, High-Yield Corporate was up 11.2%, not 4.3, so that would help boost the average. And VFIDX was up 4.0%, not down ...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Jan 02, 2017 2:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?
Replies: 105
Views: 10274

Re: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?

I don't try to forecast inflation. I do all planning (what little I do) in real terms. +1 KlangFool I'm with jebmke and KlangFool on this one. If you project spending and returns in nominal terms and then project inflation separately, you just magnify the error and uncertainty. Far easier to do eve...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Jan 01, 2017 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?
Replies: 105
Views: 10274

Re: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?

I don't try to forecast inflation. I do all planning (what little I do) in real terms. +1 KlangFool I'm with jebmke and KlangFool on this one. If you project spending and returns in nominal terms and then project inflation separately, you just magnify the error and uncertainty. Far easier to do eve...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Dec 31, 2016 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1971
Views: 366987

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

8.9% AA was 50-50 January-October. Since then 30% equities. Weighted average would be 46.7% equities. Equities have been 50% international all year. Modest small-value tilt Jan-Oct; heavy tilt since then. Like most people I'm answering a different question than the one posed in the title. I'm tellin...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Dec 21, 2016 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio
Replies: 45
Views: 7761

Re: Stable Value Funds in Portfolio

What I did was put a new column in the Simba backtesting spreadsheet with historical data on my stable value fund (TIAA-TRAD), and then used the spreadsheet's tool for exploring alternative portfolios. It didn't really change the overall picture very much. But it makes sense to use more accurate dat...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Dec 21, 2016 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help finding the best bond strategy?
Replies: 7
Views: 1508

Re: Help finding the best bond strategy?

I agree with BolderBoy that your low bond allocation means that you have the luxury of paying attention only to volatility and not worrying about return. If you are looking for a long-term strategy, to be used even as your bond holdings increase, then you should be comforted by the fact that long-te...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Employer Requiring Travel to "No Travel" Country
Replies: 48
Views: 8410

Re: Employer Requiring Travel to "No Travel" Country

What is this no travel list you are referring to? I know the state department does travel alerts and warnings but I am unaware of a no travel list: https://travel.state.gov/content/passports/en/alertswarnings.html They tend to be very cautious. I would be willing to visit several of the countries o...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Dec 20, 2016 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I learned something about my TIAA Traditional options
Replies: 11
Views: 1827

Re: I learned something about my TIAA Traditional options

Yes, it's all TIAA Traditional in my RA (100%). My TIAA holdings are TRAD-only as well. I may not need to do much rebalancing over the next few years (I'm down to 30% equities) but if I do find myself rebalancing more than once a year, I'll probably start holding some CREF-STOCK to make it easier t...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Dec 20, 2016 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I learned something about my TIAA Traditional options
Replies: 11
Views: 1827

Re: I learned something about my TIAA Traditional options

Yes, it's all TIAA Traditional in my RA (100%). For new money that is going to GSRA, do they allow you to put it in RA instead? It is allowed for the setup with my employer. I'm not sure - I'll ask HR on Monday and see what they say. In my case the TIAA person I spoke to told me that I did have the...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Dec 20, 2016 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another "OMG why did my portfolio fall" question!
Replies: 30
Views: 5103

Re: Another "OMG why did my portfolio fall" question!

Alas. I have committed the cardinal sin. More of a cardinal virtue, for which hundreds of future readers will owe you thanks. Your query made possible an informative discussion leavened with enough humor to make it a bit memorable, and absent any outright harshing (at least I hope it seems that way...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Dec 19, 2016 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Over the last 40 years, 71% of the stock market's return came from dividends, not capital appreciation,"
Replies: 91
Views: 10099

Re: Over the last 40 years, 71% of the stock market's return came from dividends, not capital appreciation,"

how is that possible if the dividend comes out of the value of the stock? The dividend comes from earnings (or at least revenue) of the company that the board of directors chooses to distribute to shareholders. this is from bogleheads wiki: For example:You own 500 shares at $11 per share at year-en...
by Aptenodytes
Sat Dec 17, 2016 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I learned something about my TIAA Traditional options
Replies: 11
Views: 1827

I learned something about my TIAA Traditional options

I recently discovered that I had more options regarding my TIAA Traditional Annuity (TRAD) than I had formerly thought, and as a result was able to make improvements to my portfolio. So I am passing along the story in case it might help others in similar circumstances. The important thing for me was...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Dec 13, 2016 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Many 3SD Body Shots Can Your Retirement Port Take?
Replies: 14
Views: 1989

Re: How Many 3SD Body Shots Can Your Retirement Port Take?

Your conclusions don't follow from your analysis. You are leaving out how much you need to withdraw and when you need to withdraw it. The lower your withdrawal needs, and the farther off your withdrawal needs, the less problematic back to back losses are. Or to put it another way, the question is no...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Dec 13, 2016 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not own every stock sector & rebalance?
Replies: 30
Views: 3708

Re: Why not own every stock sector & rebalance?

Lackey's thought experiment is interesting but ultimately of entertainment value only. It is like the thing I posted a few weeks ago on how stocks whose names are in all caps outperformed. If 1/n sector fund weights reflect a real thing there are cheaper ways to get the real thing, because we know t...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Dec 12, 2016 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Year-end rebalancing + AA re-check.
Replies: 1
Views: 266

Re: Year-end rebalancing + AA re-check.

You are done. Find something else to spend time on -- holiday shopping, vacation planning, learn to cook a new dish, etc.
by Aptenodytes
Mon Dec 12, 2016 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Comparing Ferri and Malkiel's Bond Portfolios
Replies: 14
Views: 2740

Re: Comparing Ferri and Malkiel's Bond Portfolios

I suggest unbundling some of the issues here. 1) TIPS or no TIPS? That's something that depends heavily on what inflation would do to your personally, and what your full range of adaptive measures is. That is, you could believe Malkiel/Ellis make more sense than Ferri and still own TIPS, or the obve...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Dec 11, 2016 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with picking funds and rebalancing across multiple accounts
Replies: 25
Views: 2357

Re: Help with picking funds and rebalancing across multiple accounts

I'd say you have a 7-step process to follow: 1) Decide how you are going to categorize the TIAA Real Estate fund with respect to the SCV category. How much of the desired 40% SCV tilt are you going to assign to the the 12% stake in TIAA Real Estate? 2) Decide how much of your "bond" holdings you wan...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Dec 11, 2016 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation and long term market declines.
Replies: 19
Views: 2824

Re: Asset Allocation and long term market declines.

If you are comfortable with spreadsheets then the simba backtesting spreadsheet will meet your needs. Too hard for me to paste the link on my tablet, but you can find it by searching on those terms within the bogleheads.org domain [ie through the search box on this web site]. Simba won't go back as...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Dec 11, 2016 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation and long term market declines.
Replies: 19
Views: 2824

Re: Asset Allocation and long term market declines.

If you are comfortable with spreadsheets then the simba backtesting spreadsheet will meet your needs. Too hard for me to paste the link on my tablet, but you can find it by searching on those terms within the bogleheads.org domain [ie through the search box on this web site].
by Aptenodytes
Sat Dec 10, 2016 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Software to save a log of hard disk directories/files?
Replies: 5
Views: 544

Re: Software to save a log of hard disk directories/files?

If you are using Windows you already have what you need. You can pipe a directory to a text file. Google "pipe directory listing. "
by Aptenodytes
Fri Dec 09, 2016 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: General Feedback on Portfolio! 31 year old Male
Replies: 1
Views: 487

Re: General Feedback on Portfolio! 31 year old Male

1) The AA seems reasonable. 2) You don't say what your rebalancing strategy is. You portfolio is off target by enough that I think many of us would have rebalanced by now. But some people set very wide tolerances and have good reasons for doing so -- you may be one of those people. Your internationa...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Dec 07, 2016 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help balancing stock/bonds in portfolio efficiently
Replies: 8
Views: 1221

Re: Help on balance stock/bonds in portfolio efficiently

The company stock holding will probably make a bigger difference to your risk exposure than the shift in AA you are contemplating. But what you are doing makes sense regardless. Someone your age would normally want to keep bonds out of the Roth, so that the Roth will leave you with as much tax-free ...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Dec 02, 2016 8:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: CBP (INS) Global Entry program worth it?
Replies: 65
Views: 5786

Re: CBP (INS) Global Entry program worth it?

All the information to answer the question is in the OP. Convert 45 minute waits into dollars. Only you know your own exchange rate.

I have never regretted the purchase.
by Aptenodytes
Thu Dec 01, 2016 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cash vs Investments in HSA
Replies: 11
Views: 1995

Re: Cash vs Investments in HSA

I think you have to make a decision one way or the other about whether or not to pay health expenses out of pocket to the extent possible. It sounds like you are leaning in that direction but you don't come right out and say it. Let say you take that last step and commit to paying health care out of...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Dec 01, 2016 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The new normal: 2%, 3%?
Replies: 72
Views: 5983

Re: The new normal: 2%, 3%?

Well you have to be specific about assets. I believe the evidence that various analysts have compiled arguing that returns are going to be lower in the coming 30 years than they were in the past 30 years. I don't have confidence in anyone's specific projections about how much lower. But you and I ne...
by Aptenodytes
Thu Dec 01, 2016 12:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 30 Yr Treasury Bonds - Why should't I do this?
Replies: 5
Views: 934

Re: 30 Yr Treasury Bonds - Why should't I do this?

You answered your own question the way I would answer it inflation would erode the value of the income stream but then you try to take it back with what to me seem like a bunch of non-sequitors: nothing is guaranteed, stocks are volatile, you don't need income for the next few years, you always plan...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Nov 30, 2016 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a "standard" Small Cap tilt portfolio
Replies: 46
Views: 10108

Re: What is a "standard" Small Cap tilt portfolio

Livesoft seems to be the only one distinguishing asset allocations from fund allocations. Holding 100% of your equities in the Vanguard small-cap value fund only gets you to 32% of your equities in small-cap value assets. For me, it makes sense to manage your assets in terms of fund allocations, bec...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Nov 30, 2016 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: which factors matter to investors?
Replies: 10
Views: 1522

Re: which factors matter to investors?

I didn't read the article as advocating that investors should design portfolios with respect to all identified factors, but rather that many investors appear to be inferring the presence of a "secret sauce" on the part of active managers when what they really see are known factor effects. To quote t...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Nov 29, 2016 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Chagall Paintings Recently Left to Me By Family Member
Replies: 16
Views: 2120

Re: Chagall Paintings Recently Left to Me By Family Member

When I had to get a rough estimate of artwork value in connection with settling an estate, I used the Web site askart.com. You have to pay to get the data, but I don't recall the fee being unreasonable. What you can discern from Web sites like this is very roughly what price ranges are associated wi...
by Aptenodytes
Wed Nov 23, 2016 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Glide Paths : Help with Theory
Replies: 31
Views: 3063

Re: Glide Paths : Help with Theory & Analysis

There's only one body of research/discussion missing that I can think of as missing, and that's the stuff concerning the "sequence of returns" risk as covered in the work of people like Michael Kitces and Wade Pfau. You say you are focusing just on the accumulation phase, but there's an infinitesima...
by Aptenodytes
Tue Nov 22, 2016 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 335
Views: 65640

Re: Retreat to cash

An all-cash position risks only loss of potential gains above 1%, while protecting against any loss should markets perform below that. Little downside risk. You have a weird definition of "little." In 2013 you would have lost 30%. In 2003 you would have lost 27%. You describe yourself as having no ...
by Aptenodytes
Mon Nov 21, 2016 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Trying to figure out the right blend of fixed-income investments
Replies: 4
Views: 789

Re: Trying to figure out the right blend of fixed-income investments

You could try to come up with a principled target for inflation protected bonds instead of just maxing I bonds. Use TIPS if you need to go higher or don't max out if you don't need to. Your logic about the pimco fund doesn't make sense. If you value diversification there are many better ways to get ...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Investor Questionnaire recommends 100% stocks!
Replies: 56
Views: 6813

Re: Vanguard Investor Questionnaire recommends 100% stocks!

I'm curious if your rebalancing bands are really as narrow as your answer to number 8 suggests. I would recommend 80-90 percent stocks based on your answers. If I were programming the Vanguard robot that's what I'd have it do. I suspect the Vanguard robot has an artificial and illogical need to max ...
by Aptenodytes
Sun Nov 20, 2016 9:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Whole life - 7 "pithy" questions to ask the salesman
Replies: 43
Views: 5972

Re: Whole life - 7 "pithy" questions to ask the salesman

I agree with everyone saying that your strategy will not work.
by Aptenodytes
Sun Nov 20, 2016 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: roth allocation [very long time frame]
Replies: 7
Views: 1193

Re: roth allocation [very long time frame]

You've got everything right except Roth is a dude's name, not an acronym. This is assuming your calculations are all correct and you don't need to spend from your Roth IRA. I plan to spend from mine during the period in between retirement and taking social security, in order to stay out of the 25% t...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Nov 18, 2016 5:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's the best Cashback CC for "general" uses?
Replies: 27
Views: 4779

Re: What's the best Cashback CC for "general" uses?

There are hundreds of thousands of posts about this question, and several good Web sites.

For the card you use by default, before taking into account special bonuses, anything that gets you 2% without an annual fee is good. I use the Fidelity Visa.
by Aptenodytes
Sat Nov 05, 2016 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Higher expected returns = Lower expected losses?
Replies: 25
Views: 2830

Re: Higher expected returns = Lower expected losses?

You still aren't explaining what you mean but you are getting close. Here's my guess what you mean -- is it right? You are interested in the probability distribution of rates of return for some point about 10 years in the future. You want to compare such distributions across different equity asset c...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Nov 04, 2016 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio advice needed
Replies: 17
Views: 2403

Re: Portfolio advice needed

With the 401k would it be advised to not go with the Target date fund? With the expense ratio being low and the solid diversification it seems like less I have to worry about with an actively managed fund. My 401k may be the only place I use a balanced fund and I feel that in my Roth and taxable ac...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Nov 04, 2016 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio advice needed
Replies: 17
Views: 2403

Re: Portfolio advice needed

1) Your emergency fund is very large. Maybe you need it, but maybe you could be investing more of that total. Depends on your needs and risks. Maybe it isn't even an emergency fund, but a "first house downpayment fund" or something like that. 2) You ask about international equities, but you also say...
by Aptenodytes
Fri Nov 04, 2016 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Choosing between bond funds
Replies: 17
Views: 2644

Re: Choosing between bond funds

The choice seems bad to me. I wouldn't commit to anything before finding the answer to Livesoft's question, and probing your ability to do what Nisi suggests -- holding bond funds in a tax-sheltered account outside your 401k. I think you ought to have more control over the duration of your bond hold...