Search found 2426 matches

by Angst
Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Two tranche I bond emergency fund?
Replies: 5
Views: 452

Re: Two tranche I bond emergency fund?

I suggest you invest $25 in your understanding of Treasury Direct by purchasing $25 in I Bonds, now. I agree with JoMoney. I've been buying electronic savings bonds ever since they stopped offering paper (still available w/ tax refunds) and I have no trouble with Treasury Direct, I even like their w...
by Angst
Sun Sep 06, 2020 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Edelman "Telling" Investors to Sell
Replies: 49
Views: 5777

Re: Edelman "Telling" Investors to Sell

I have not looked at Financial Engines for many years, I thought that it was helpful when I used it. Vanguard has offered Financial Engines for many years. Financial Engines was not created by Edelman. Has Financial Engines changed since being acquired and combined with Edelman in 2018? Newswire I ...
by Angst
Sun Sep 06, 2020 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Edelman "Telling" Investors to Sell
Replies: 49
Views: 5777

Re: Edelman "Telling" Investors to Sell

Who is Edelman and who cares? Wealth planner that has a network of CFPs. He's a salesman in the end, but in general, his advice really is not bad. All of the callers to his show and/or voicemails asking him investing questions sound incredibly canned though. It appears to me that "Edelman Financial...
by Angst
Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for great interviews, podcasts, blogs
Replies: 14
Views: 1090

Re: Looking for great interviews, podcasts, blogs

I like Bloomberg's Surveillance podcasts . They don't have a long shelf life - they cover current financial news, events, etc., daily. They're generally fairly intelligent, typically interesting for financial news junkies and occasionally they're absolutely fantastic. I think I prefer them over Mark...
by Angst
Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Advisors Website Fund Comparison Tool
Replies: 1
Views: 287

Vanguard Advisors Website Fund Comparison Tool

I just noticed that Vanguard's fund comparison tool at their advisors website has been updated and it appears to be fairly good and an improvement over the earlier version which I think lacked some of the ease of use and quality of presentation that this new one now has. The old one cluttered up fai...
by Angst
Sun Aug 30, 2020 12:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: New IPOs - Total Market Index Funds
Replies: 3
Views: 336

Re: New IPOs - Total Market Index Funds

VTI tracks a CRSP index so I would presume this calendar holds your answer. http://www.crsp.org/indexes-pages/index-calendars It looks to me that for funds tracking CRSP cap-based equity indexes ( VTI , e.g.), some IPO's can qualify to be added more quickly than just at the quarterly rebalancings: ...
by Angst
Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Changing how the Fed views inflation
Replies: 32
Views: 2228

Re: Changing how the Fed views inflation

I don't understand why the financial media is treating this as a bombshell, or even news. The Fed has been calling 2% a "symmetric" target since at least January of 2017, 3 and a half years ago, and has elaborated on this repeatedly. To wit, here's the executive summary of the speech that Charles E...
by Angst
Sat Aug 22, 2020 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF (BSV)
Replies: 8
Views: 722

Re: Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF (BSV)

I think it's always been spelled that way, and Vanguard has a number of fund and ETF names that don't begin with V. After all the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund is BND, the international bond mrket index fund is BNDX. The Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund is NAESX. And it appears that mutual fun...
by Angst
Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security Jitters Anyone ??
Replies: 87
Views: 6775

Re: Social Security Jitters Anyone ??

A late friend was accurately diagnosed with terminal cancer at age 73. I visited him before things got bad and it transpired that he had never filed for Social Security. :shock: I think sometimes we forget how little attention the average person pays to issues that we debate ad nauseum. Maybe this ...
by Angst
Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do with significant index changes, e.g., S&P 500 adding Tesla
Replies: 200
Views: 17466

Re: What to do with significant index changes, e.g., S&P 500 adding Tesla

...This Bloomberg Businessweek article has some quotes from Vanguard: When Tesla Hits the S&P 500, It’ll Spark the Wildest Passive Trade Ever This is not only a nonevent if you own the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund, but also a nonevent if you own any of these other broad and total market i...
by Angst
Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS vs TIPS ETF and speculation
Replies: 24
Views: 1591

Re: TIPS vs TIPS ETF and speculation

Okay, so I was all set to participate in the 30yr TIPS auction on the 20th, and then I read an article from the Tipswatch guy who states this TIPS auction "isn't attractive for a buy-and-hold-to-maturity investor" and "absolutely, under no circumstances, buy this TIPS in taxable account". He goes o...
by Angst
Mon Aug 17, 2020 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS vs TIPS ETF and speculation
Replies: 24
Views: 1591

Re: TIPS vs TIPS ETF and speculation

Okay, so I was all set to participate in the 30yr TIPS auction on the 20th, and then I read an article from the Tipswatch guy who states this TIPS auction "isn't attractive for a buy-and-hold-to-maturity investor" and "absolutely, under no circumstances, buy this TIPS in taxable account". He goes o...
by Angst
Mon Aug 17, 2020 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If bond/bank/cd rates go full negative, should you just go buy a bunch of stuff?
Replies: 22
Views: 2056

Re: If bond/bank/cd rates go full negative, should you just go buy a bunch of stuff?

Howdy Interesting question. Here is a thought. What are real interest rates at the moment, ie what is the true rate of inflation? I have no idea, and I doubt if the CPI actually reflects it. Are we currently in a deflationary situation? If that is he case, real interest rates may be higher than it ...
by Angst
Mon Aug 17, 2020 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Latest Thoughts from Larry Swedroe
Replies: 35
Views: 5378

Re: Latest Thoughts from Larry Swedroe

... Trees don’t grow to the sky and certainly this applies to these companies. Hate to have a big chunk of my future retirement depend on those companies and bonds yielding nothing. It's the big trees that survive through the disasters that kill off the little ones... Hate to be relying on a tilt t...
by Angst
Mon Aug 17, 2020 9:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond fund options
Replies: 27
Views: 1981

Re: Bond fund options

A couple ideas, all of which might already have been suggested: 1) The forum's Wiki provides info regarding how to campaign at work for a better 401(k) plan 2) If you don't already contribute to a personal IRA, as long as doing so wouldn't sacrifice an available employer 401k match, do it instead of...
by Angst
Fri Aug 14, 2020 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy TIPS Mutual Fund or I-Bonds?
Replies: 28
Views: 2894

Re: Buy TIPS Mutual Fund or I-Bonds?

Thank you #Cruncher for the clarifications above. Clearly, I Bonds are presently a good option for many people to consider. And thank you for the updated table you posted. I had naively assumed you'd already somehow incorporated the math required to account for the I Bond's benefits from its "rate f...
by Angst
Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy TIPS Mutual Fund or I-Bonds?
Replies: 28
Views: 2894

Re: Buy TIPS Mutual Fund or I-Bonds?

The following table shows the breakeven inflation rate. I.e., the inflation rate at which the after tax value of a 0% fixed rate I Bond equals the value of a TIPS in a Roth IRA. [1] For example, with a 10% tax rate annual inflation would need to be 34.2% for a 10-year TIPS yielding -0.99% [2] to gr...
by Angst
Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do with International Bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 2376

Re: What to do with International Bonds?

I still like the idea of holding international bonds so that my bonds are diversified, but would like to exchange VTABX for something else that doesn't have a negative real return. What other international bond funds would you suggest? Well if you are looking for something different, Dodge and Cox ...
by Angst
Sun Aug 09, 2020 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation, TIPS and asset allocation
Replies: 74
Views: 3807

Re: Inflation, TIPS and asset allocation

Your distributions from the iShares TIPS Bond ETF come in the form of nominal (aka "actual") dollars just like IEF (which has an even MORE negative real yield than TIP at the moment). iShares TIPS normally makes distributions on a monthly basis but it has paid $0.000000 for the last three months. I...
by Angst
Sat Aug 08, 2020 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative Interest Rates: What's the Big Deal?
Replies: 69
Views: 5153

Re: Negative Interest Rates: What's the Big Deal?

Rather than Endlessly speculate about this issue Are there any Europeans here? They have been living with negative interest rates for years. How did they react? What actually happened to their bond and bond fund market values? They've posted here in other threads before in response to this same que...
by Angst
Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Purchased a ST Corp Bond ETF in March - Now What?
Replies: 32
Views: 1426

Re: Purchased a ST Corp Bond ETF in March - Now What?

Market timing is about buying or selling a security in order to increase one's gain. I am addressing selling and buying essentially the same maturity at the same time. There is no question about increasing one's gain. It is only concerned with when you recognize the taxes. The best "market timing" ...
by Angst
Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on bonds from Fed decision...
Replies: 111
Views: 7861

Re: Thoughts on bonds from Fed decision...

Earlier this week from Ben Carlson: If the 10 year treasury had a P/E ratio (the inverse of the yield): 1970: 12.8x 1980: 9.3x 1990: 12.2x 2000: 15.0x 2010: 26.8x Now: 192.3x 4:17 PM · Aug 5, 2020· Well... that's different. I never thought of bonds that way. I don't think it changes anything for me...
by Angst
Fri Aug 07, 2020 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money Supply and Velocity
Replies: 12
Views: 991

Re: Money Supply and Velocity

I guess those $600 unemployment supplements have had something to do with the bump in M2, and the economy on its knees d/t Covid might explain the drop in velocity, but I'm not qualified to state this as fact. Still, I felt like responding to a post about M2 in another thread a day or so ago: https...
by Angst
Fri Aug 07, 2020 9:20 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Negative Interest Rates. Load up on Long Term Bonds?
Replies: 47
Views: 4974

Re: Negative Interest Rates. Load up on Long Term Bonds?

Congrats on the good results, so far!
Watch that inflation though, of course:

Image

https://tradingeconomics.com/india/inflation-cpi
by Angst
Thu Aug 06, 2020 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money Supply and Velocity
Replies: 12
Views: 991

Re: Money Supply and Velocity

I guess those $600 unemployment supplements have had something to do with the bump in M2, and the economy on its knees d/t Covid might explain the drop in velocity, but I'm not qualified to state this as fact. Still, I felt like responding to a post about M2 in another thread a day or so ago: https:...
by Angst
Thu Aug 06, 2020 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation - something to worry about?
Replies: 26
Views: 2525

Re: Inflation - something to worry about?

Here is another view of that Minneapolis Fed data. [Snip...] That's really interesting, thank you for the work. It gets me thinking of course: If the Fed is successful in targeting (average) inflation at 2% over time, the future (dotted) slope of the price level should flatten out. Correct? But the...
by Angst
Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Fund vs Gold Fund
Replies: 90
Views: 4410

Re: TIPS Fund vs Gold Fund

There is a 3 month lag incorporated into the indexation of Real Return Bonds (it was longer than that, then the Canadians invented a way around that. Hurray Canada ;-)). TIPS I believe are included. So if your TIPS were 10 years, and mature in July 2020, the inflation adjustment for the TIPS princi...
by Angst
Wed Aug 05, 2020 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Fund vs Gold Fund
Replies: 90
Views: 4410

Re: TIPS Fund vs Gold Fund

TIPS lose inflation protection at high rates of inflation because: - (I think) the CPI adjustment is done with a lag, and I think the investor bears the risk of that lag? So if your inflation rate is say 10% pcm, you could lose 30% of value I believe... that if one is holding TIPS to maturity, and ...
by Angst
Wed Aug 05, 2020 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Fund vs Gold Fund
Replies: 90
Views: 4410

Re: TIPS Fund vs Gold Fund

So, I guess your answer is "no." Exactly what I expected. 8-) The only thing you’ve demonstrated with this comment is that you don’t have a legitimate rebuttal. And thus you’ve resorted to a juvenile response as opposed to reciprocating in good faith as I did to your question. If I don’t have a “ba...
by Angst
Tue Aug 04, 2020 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on bonds from Fed decision...
Replies: 111
Views: 7861

Re: Thoughts on bonds from Fed decision...

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2 That M2 chart is pretty eye opening. It is a big spike in money supply. We did not see that spike post 2008. Whether or not that drives consumer price inflation, who knows. I don't know if it's comparable, but back in 1990 in what was then West Germany, M2 spik...
by Angst
Mon Aug 03, 2020 6:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good idea to hold TIPS now?
Replies: 85
Views: 6141

Re: Good idea to hold TIPS now?

But I'm wondering if anyone up-thread has already brought up the possibility that with the entire real yield curve presently being well into negative territory, insurance companies simply are unable to profitably offer inflation-indexed SPIAs? As always, if it could be done profitably by definition...
by Angst
Mon Aug 03, 2020 5:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good idea to hold TIPS now?
Replies: 85
Views: 6141

Re: Good idea to hold TIPS now?

[Snip...] I understand that, but how big is that critical mass? 1,000? 10,000? The law of large numbers would sure 'kick in' at those levels I am not an actuary, so I'm not sure how big it needs to be. The only answer we have is that the insurers currently don't think it's "big enough". The demand ...
by Angst
Sun Aug 02, 2020 11:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good idea to hold TIPS now?
Replies: 85
Views: 6141

Re: Good idea to hold TIPS now?

Kinda like FIREchief, I have a non-rolling ladder of TIPS for eventually supplementing SS retirement income. I have a few more future 30-year rungs I want covered and so I'll have a decision to make before this month's out. I held my nose back in February and bought part of my 2050 rung while thinki...
by Angst
Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to monitor the Fed's actions & invest to protect against future possible inflation?
Replies: 56
Views: 3884

Re: How to monitor the Fed's actions & invest to protect against future possible inflation?

As usual, nisiprius makes some reasonable observations and suggestions. No particular changes are needed since predictions of inflation have been wildly unreliable. And I'd add that some people are thinking deflation is much more likely in our future than inflation. Clearly, nobody knows for sure. M...
by Angst
Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Analysis please
Replies: 56
Views: 4783

Re: Advisor moved me from all S&P to these...thoughts?

1. Tread carefully 2. Edward Jones? 3. Read the wiki and “getting started” before committing and shifting funds. 4. Why do you need a financial advisor? 5. Search the forum archives for “financial advisor” and read and keep reading the threads. And then read more. 6. You have nothing to lose and ev...
by Angst
Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Int'l High Dividend Yield Index vs Total Int'l Stock Index
Replies: 23
Views: 3352

Re: Vanguard Int'l High Dividend Yield Index vs Total Int'l Stock Index

Hmm....I'm a bit surprised that Int'l High Yield fell further than Total Int'l during the recent decline. Absent other data, I would have thought that a higher dividend yield would have resulted in a lower beta for Int'l High Yield. Thank you arcticpineapplecorp.... Then you might be similarly surp...
by Angst
Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Int'l High Dividend Yield Index vs Total Int'l Stock Index
Replies: 23
Views: 3352

Re: Vanguard Int'l High Dividend Yield Index vs Total Int'l Stock Index

It might be a reasonable proxy for Int'l LCV, which could also help explain it's lagging recovery vs. Total Int'l. It is available as an ETF (VYMI) so one can avoid the MF purchase/redemption fees. And with all the recent fretting over Chinese share dilution, I'd have to think that the Chinese compa...
by Angst
Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds worth it?
Replies: 137
Views: 9118

Re: Bonds worth it?

You only get the 3.5% rate if you hold it the full 20 years. Hold it for 19 years and sell and you get almost no return at all. Hold EE Bonds for 15 years and you'd have to find an investment that would guarantee you 12.25% to make it worth cashing your EE Bond out early, and at 19 years that numbe...
by Angst
Sat Jul 25, 2020 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 0.00% Yield on the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Fund
Replies: 203
Views: 16145

Re: 0.00% Yield on the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Fund

For any decent sized portfolio, the annual purchase limits on savings bonds (I and EE) make them not very useful for the fixed-income portion of a portfolio. Add to that the necessity to have to deal with the many quirks of TreasuryDirect (as well as possibly ditto for you heirs), and I find them n...
by Angst
Fri Jul 24, 2020 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wow! Dare Not to Follow the Crowd
Replies: 69
Views: 11352

Re: Wow! Dare Not to Follow the Crowd

Here's my experience: Upper Lower/Lower middle class family (depending on dad's contract work). I taught karate part-time in high school, and deeply enjoyed the experience. Out of high school, I started off at a state university wanting to be a physics teacher. I was an honor student, accepted at s...
by Angst
Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan, 1989
Replies: 161
Views: 46127

Re: Japan, 1989

In 2017, I published on the Bogleheads blog a study about the Japanese crisis, historical returns and asset allocations, click here: https://www.bogleheads.org/blog/2017/02/06/a-short-study-of-the-recent-japanese-crisis/ If there is enough interest (this means more than one vote!), I could try to d...
by Angst
Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 0.00% Yield on the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Fund
Replies: 203
Views: 16145

Re: 0.00% Yield on the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Fund

Vanguard also lists an estimated YTM for TIPS funds, which they base on the trailing 12 months of inflation, for VTAPX that's 0.1%: https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/portfolio/vtapx As you note, we still don't know how Vanguard applies the SEC formula to a fund that has both TIPS a...
by Angst
Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 0.00% Yield on the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Fund
Replies: 203
Views: 16145

Re: 0.00% Yield on the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Fund

Clearly Vanguard and iShares are not doing the same calculation ... So much for the SEC mandate . Found an explanation: The return on TIPS, however, comes not just from interest income but also from any adjustment in value as inflation rises. The SEC hasn't issued any guidance to fund companies on ...
by Angst
Mon Jul 20, 2020 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 0.00% Yield on the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Fund
Replies: 203
Views: 16145

Re: 0.00% Yield on the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Fund

People look at 0.00% and read this as the 30 day SEC yield for a ST Nominal bond fund. If this were any TIPS fund, it's 30 day SEC yield would surely be negative, but that would not mean it's nominal yield would be negative. THIS fund though is a hybrid, and almost 20% of it is tied up in negative ...
by Angst
Mon Jul 20, 2020 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 0.00% Yield on the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Fund
Replies: 203
Views: 16145

Re: 0.00% Yield on the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Fund

You can't compare the 30 day SEC yield of a TIPS fund with the SEC yield of a nominal treasury fund Why not? If the inflation over the last 30 days was 1% wouldn't the ending value of that fund increase by 1% also. The 30 day yield is backward looking so any increase in value due to inflation would...
by Angst
Sun Jul 19, 2020 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 0.00% Yield on the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Fund
Replies: 203
Views: 16145

Re: 0.00% Yield on the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Fund

Why did you choose the active fund? Why not Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Index Fund (VSBSX)? I notice the active version does include Tips . Could this be an advantage over the index version for short term investing? Insurance against unexpected inflation? The TIPS portion is a discretionary alloca...
by Angst
Sat Jul 18, 2020 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 0.00% Yield on the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Fund
Replies: 203
Views: 16145

Re: 0.00% Yield on the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Fund

The more I look at this yield the more I question it. Over 20% of this fund's market value is actually held in TIPS, and two of those TIPS comprising almost $2B in market value mature next year, in January and April. I think this is distorting the 30 day SEC yield. If this were a TIPS fund it would ...
by Angst
Sat Jul 18, 2020 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 0.00% Yield on the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Fund
Replies: 203
Views: 16145

Re: 0.00% Yield on the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Fund

The Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Fund Investor Shares (VFISX) had a 30-day SEC yield of 0.00% as of 7/16/20. [EDIT] Yep, that would be consistent with the current yield curve , out to 90 days, net of the Investor ER of 0.10% Actually, that still leaves one basis point to be accounted for. I've reco...
by Angst
Sat Jul 18, 2020 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS/LMP Concerns
Replies: 41
Views: 1765

Re: TIPS/LMP Concerns

Thanks Angst. I will be drawing down out of the ETFs To fund my income so that could be an issue. I will have some funds on the Risk Portfolio side so I hope that can see me through a rough patch. Presumably you will be be generating your retirement income in one of the following ways: A) sell a mi...