Search found 2424 matches

by Angst
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yields on TBill went Negative
Replies: 6
Views: 683

Re: Yields on TBill went Negative

A few -.01% 1 mo yields were reported in Treasury's daily t-bill yield data in late 2008 and again in 2011. The rates across the bill curve were reported in same source as a few bps positive each on Friday and hasn't shown a negative yet this year. That wouldn't include however intraday secondary m...
by Angst
Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding Bond ETF Discounts
Replies: 65
Views: 4467

Re: Understanding Bond ETF Discounts

[Snip...] In a nutshell, ETF are pricing bonds correctly. It's the NAV is wrong. So, if you bought Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VBTLX) on March 16 at the NAV price, you overpaid by about 6%. If you bought Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND), you bought at fair market value...
by Angst
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Replies: 95
Views: 8406

Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

But in a PM discussion, siamond and I have come to the conclusion that, with so many panicked folks newly viewing and reading the Forum these days, it would be more constructive for us to focus on the Boglehead philosophy and "stay the course" message now, rather than posting charts that could inad...
by Angst
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS
Replies: 271
Views: 20722

Re: TIPS go Crazy!

I do believe that deflation can take back inflation correction already applied to an i-bond. It just cannot go below the original purchase value. No, no! This is not correct. Actually, the 6 month inflation rate back in May 2009 was negative, but no I-Bonds lost any accrued value (or interest, or w...
by Angst
Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Replies: 95
Views: 8406

Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Hi Todd, regarding your thread/post below, I think the board would be fascinated to see alongside it a similar graphic representation of where we in the US might be today with respect to our own growing cases distribution and plunging S&P. I don't think it would be unreasonable to correlate in time ...
by Angst
Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS
Replies: 271
Views: 20722

Re: TIPS go Crazy!

I posted the following in another thread. Perhaps if people who dislike these miserable bond spreads sent messages to their brokerages...? Well, at least it couldn't hurt. I wish that bond markets would be restructured in a way that the small folk like us could enter limit orders like we can do for ...
by Angst
Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Negative interest and bond funds
Replies: 11
Views: 818

Re: Negative interest and bond funds

I'm having trouble understanding the difficulty! Ok, say Treasury auctions an instrument, $1,000 par w/ 0.125 coupon, and it sells at a huge premium, so its yield to maturity will be negative. A fund buys that bond and as time passes, the value of that bond/fund slowly falls to $1,000. That's it, no...
by Angst
Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Secondary Mkt TIPS: Newbie Question
Replies: 5
Views: 232

Re: Secondary Mkt TIPS: Newbie Question

Do you know of any tools; website calculators or spreadsheets, that one could use to perform those calculations for evaluating TIPS at auction or on the secondary market? There's a wealth of information available at the following website: http://eyebonds.info/tips/index.html Moreover, searching for...
by Angst
Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity ITOT Bid vs Ask Price?
Replies: 3
Views: 303

Re: Fidelity ITOT Bid vs Ask Price?

Or you could place a limit buy order at the mid-point between 52.72 and 53.15, so maybe for 52.93 Now, if you think the market's falling... maybe you'd bid less than 52.93, maybe even less than 52.72 Since you appear to be new to this, start out slow with small amounts. Regarding the premium or disc...
by Angst
Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETFs at Discount to NAV: Anyone Freaking Out?
Replies: 68
Views: 4558

Re: ETFs at Discount to NAV: Anyone Freaking Out?

I wish that bond markets would be restructured in a way that the small folk like us could enter limit orders like we can do for equity and ETF trades. I know there's a fair number of Bogleheads that would happily help bridge those canyon-like spreads we've seen recently in the secondary market for ...
by Angst
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETFs at Discount to NAV: Anyone Freaking Out?
Replies: 68
Views: 4558

Re: ETFs at Discount to NAV: Anyone Freaking Out?

My current understanding of this situation is that stale prices d/t poor liquidity and large spreads are making NAV less (or a lot less) meaningful, perhaps compromising the AP creation/redemption process. My concern (with Vanguard MF/ETF pairs in particular) is that when the ETF is closing at a bi...
by Angst
Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Auction Tomorrow Morning: 3/19/20
Replies: 20
Views: 1919

Re: Treasury Auction Tomorrow Morning: 3/19/20

Anyone care to venture an educated guess on what this might mean for I Bonds in May or beyond? The current variable rate is 0.2% and I believe had been expected to drop to 0.0% prior to current excitement. Well... I'll take a crack at it. If this rate held through April, there's no way the I Bond f...
by Angst
Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Auction Tomorrow Morning: 3/19/20
Replies: 20
Views: 1919

Re: Treasury Auction Tomorrow Morning: 3/19/20

So the results are in - the high yield was 0.680%
Not bad, and it turns out, the indicative yield last night of 0.607 was fairly close.

The 1 and 3 2 Month T-Bills both had high rates of 0.030% and low rates of 0.000%
by Angst
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Auction Tomorrow Morning: 3/19/20
Replies: 20
Views: 1919

Re: Treasury Auction Tomorrow Morning: 3/19/20

I'm also noticing that some TIPS ETFs are trading below NAV value, a bit. Is this fairly normal? Or more evidence of market stress? TIP NAV = $110.85. TIP closing price = $108.81 TIP quoted opening price = $110.21 SCHP NAV = $54.08 SCHP closing price = $53.09 SCHP quoted opening price = $53.50 Ther...
by Angst
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Auction Tomorrow Morning: 3/19/20
Replies: 20
Views: 1919

Re: Treasury Auction Tomorrow Morning: 3/19/20

The Indicative Yield is an estimate based off the most recently issued Treasury security of similar maturity that is currently available among active platform participants. The actual treasury auction results will often vary from the Indicative Yield and you may receive at auction an actual yield t...
by Angst
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETFs at Discount to NAV: Anyone Freaking Out?
Replies: 68
Views: 4558

Re: ETFs at Discount to NAV: Anyone Freaking Out?

My current understanding of this situation is that stale prices d/t poor liquidity and large spreads are making NAV less (or a lot less) meaningful, perhaps compromising the AP creation/redemption process. My concern (with Vanguard MF/ETF pairs in particular) is that when the ETF is closing at a bi...
by Angst
Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Auction Tomorrow Morning: 3/19/20
Replies: 20
Views: 1919

Re: Treasury Auction Tomorrow Morning: 3/19/20

My one question: This will be the first TIPS auction with the Federal Reserve actively stepping in to buy part of the $12 billion offering. According to the Fed's schedule (view it: https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/treasury-securities/trea...
by Angst
Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Auction Tomorrow Morning: 3/19/20
Replies: 20
Views: 1919

Re: Treasury Auctions Tomorrow Morning: 3/19/20

Anyone know if you can buy through TD Ameritrade, and on margin? Yes. https://www.tdameritrade.com/investment-products/bonds-and-cds/new-issues.page Thank you. And once I own it, I can sell it easy enough on the secondary market on TDA? Sorry for the noob questions, first time buying TIPS direct an...
by Angst
Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Auction Tomorrow Morning: 3/19/20
Replies: 20
Views: 1919

Re: Treasury Auctions Tomorrow Morning: 3/19/20

10 year TIPS anyone? Certainly! Several reasons: - I have a 2030 rung of my LMP to fill - Real rates have gone up significantly in the last 9 days - Bid/ask spreads for TIPS in the secondary markets are prohibitively large - Auction indicative yield of 0.607% exceeds my backup plan to fund rung w/ ...
by Angst
Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to park cash if we go to negative interest rates
Replies: 45
Views: 5182

Re: Where to park cash if we go to negative interest rates

It's possible that it's happened before, but I don't think so: the nominal yield on a 1-Month Treasury actually DID go negative for a period of time today before rebounding. https://i.imgur.com/EkkRvfk.png It will be interesting to see what happens in the Treasury auction tomorrow morning of 1 and ...
by Angst
Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the 2020 crash different from 2008, 2001 or 1987?
Replies: 61
Views: 5399

Re: Is the 2020 crash different from 2008, 2001 or 1987?

livesoft wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:01 pm It is different in at least one way: Those other crashes are over and done with.
Big +1 to that.
They're all the same though in that they thrive on fear and only die once the fear is exhausted.
by Angst
Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations
Replies: 61
Views: 5308

Re: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations

In any event, now's not a bad time to be a buyer of TIPS bonds to be held to maturity ;-) - GettingCloser Yes and no. Yes, b/c real rates have risen significantly over the last 9 days and therefor the price of TIPS has dropped. No, b/c the spreads in the secondary markets are huge. There's a liquid...
by Angst
Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Auction Tomorrow Morning: 3/19/20
Replies: 20
Views: 1919

Treasury Auction Tomorrow Morning: 3/19/20

[EDIT] So the results are in: The 10 YR TIPS high yield was 0.680 % The 1 and 2 Month T-Bills both had high rates of 0.030 % and low rates of 0.000 % Is anyone buying? Here's what's being offered ( per Treasury ) with the most recent indicative yields, approx 3:00pm 4:12pm 8:55pm ET tonight: 1 Mont...
by Angst
Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations
Replies: 61
Views: 5308

Re: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations

At what yield/term are fellow TIPS fans tempted to start buying ? For short TIPS, I don't have any hesitation for anything better than -0.25%. Regardless of duration, anyone in the secondary market for TIPS will want to pay close attention to bid/ask spreads which are much worse than for nominal Tr...
by Angst
Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations
Replies: 61
Views: 5308

Re: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations

I've refined, expanded, and updated the breakeven calculation to cover 21 TIPS maturing from Jan 2021 to Feb 2050 using today's (Tuesday 3/17/2020) WSJ TIPS and nominal Treasury quotes. And here's a chart of #Cruncher's excellent work: https://i.imgur.com/UZLEevU.jpg Essentially, the bond market is...
by Angst
Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Replies: 431
Views: 417542

Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

2pedals wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:05 pm The following is what I believe to be nisiprius's original 2011 post with the tinypic images replaced.
[Snip...]

Thank you for all the work resurrecting nisi's pics!
by Angst
Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How does TIPS Secondary Market work?
Replies: 8
Views: 438

Re: How does TIPS Secondary Market work?

Be careful about the Bid/Ask spread when buying TIPS in the secondary market, especially these days . I looked multiple times today, considering buying long TIPS given the recent jump in rates, but the price spread for the 2050 bond was around 7% every time I looked. I also checked other TIPS, gener...
by Angst
Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10yr Treasury: Vanguard ↓22bp to 0.73% but yield curve ↑6bp to 0.94% What???
Replies: 3
Views: 435

Re: 10yr Treasury: Vanguard ↓22bp to 0.73% but yield curve ↑6bp to 0.94% What???

You're one day off in reading the Treasury Yield Curve , Angst. Today (3/16/2020) the 10-year constant maturity rate was 0.73%, down 0.21% points from Friday's (3/13/2020) rate of 0.94%. 0.88% was the 10-year rate on Thursday 3/12/2020. 0.73% agrees with today's WSJ Treasury Quotes closing yield of...
by Angst
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10yr Treasury: Vanguard ↓22bp to 0.73% but yield curve ↑6bp to 0.94% What???
Replies: 3
Views: 435

10yr Treasury: Vanguard ↓22bp to 0.73% but yield curve ↑6bp to 0.94% What???

Can anyone explain this to me? At the top of Vanguard's " Balances & Holdings " page it displays this data: 10-year T-note 0.73% – 0.22 ↓ – 23.45% ↓ But today's nominal Treasury Yield Curve shows the 10yr rate rising 6 BP from 0.88% yesterday to 0.94% today. There is a big difference between rising ...
by Angst
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are VTIP and VGSH no longer postivitely correlated?
Replies: 1
Views: 301

Re: Why are VTIP and VGSH no longer postivitely correlated?

Yes, presumably it's due to a decrease in short-term inflation expectations. Check out this recent thread:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=306517
by Angst
Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Secondary Mkt TIPS: Newbie Question
Replies: 5
Views: 232

Re: Secondary Mkt TIPS: Newbie Question

Today does not appear to be a good time to participate in the secondary market for TIPS, at least not Long Term TIPS.
I just compared 30-yr, Feb 2050: TIPS vs Nominal Treasury Bonds:

bid/ask spread in yield

Nominal: 24 basis points
TIPS: Well over 300 basis points

:shock:
by Angst
Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: it's better to do Roth conversion in a down market ?
Replies: 31
Views: 2824

Re: it's better to do Roth conversion in a down market ?

Short answer is yes. A Roth conversion is a taxable event. In a down market the value of your fund shares is lower than in an up market, which results in you paying less taxes for the Roth conversion. In a down market, the only regret you might have to deal with here is possibly having to sell a gr...
by Angst
Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street Journal article: blood in the streets
Replies: 10
Views: 1581

Re: Wall Street Journal article: blood in the streets

and of course, Nisi's priceless post: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=79939 What a shame that all the graphs that nisi made and posted in this thread (above) were archived at tinypic.com where they seem to expire after time. They're all missing in this thread's OP . :( btw, he...
by Angst
Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds falling?
Replies: 236
Views: 6212

Re: Why are municipal bonds down 5% today?

You might enjoy this book, A Comprehensive Guide to Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) . It is fairly technical, but it should be accessible to the lay person. And it is free. https://smile.amazon.com/Comprehensive-Guide-Exchange-Traded-Funds-ETFs-ebook/dp/B00Y3JNK5G/ref=sr_1_3?keywords=cfa+etf&qid=15842...
by Angst
Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?
Replies: 200
Views: 15385

Re: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?

Clearly you are not yet in an area where this has fully developed. Schools are closing for a month. Some are closed indefinitely. Governments are talking about near lockdown where all non-essential business is closed. Supply chains will be severely disrupted. Grocery stores in our area have already...
by Angst
Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds falling?
Replies: 236
Views: 6212

Re: Why are municipal bonds down 5% today?

alex_686 wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:58 amSorry that I am not giving you a hard answer and advice, but hopefully this illuminates things better.
I appreciate your responses, thank you. Things are interesting these days. :beer
by Angst
Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Behavior of ETF’s in last weeks market panic
Replies: 22
Views: 2142

Re: Behavior of ETF’s in last weeks market panic

OP, You may be interested in this recent thread. Former mutual fund accountant here. Do you have a grudge against your former co-workers? :P Nope. But after 10 years I decided that I wanted different challenges in life. I now a financial analyst who has to think about the yield curve and credit spr...
by Angst
Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?
Replies: 200
Views: 15385

Re: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?

My goodness! Parts of this thread read like a poor re-write of some old Twilight Zone episode. My life is not going to shut down "for a few months" and this is not comparable to 2008. And grocery stores will gladly sell their food and suppliers will gladly supply it. Same thing with pharmacies and g...
by Angst
Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds falling?
Replies: 236
Views: 6212

Re: Why are municipal bonds down 5% today?

Yes, I remember reading here in the past how they dealt with that arbitrage. I can't remember much about it but there was some kind of solution that took care of it, but that idea wasn't what I was trying to address with my questions. (Although since Treasuries continue to be traded in foreign marke...
by Angst
Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds falling?
Replies: 236
Views: 6212

Re: Why are municipal bonds down 5% today?

Yes, thank you alex_686 for all the work posting the above description of the mutual fund NAV calculation process. This really has helped my understanding. Can I pass a couple more things by for your consideration? First, as an example, is the NAV of Vanguard's IT Treasury ETF (VGIT) calculated the ...
by Angst
Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds falling?
Replies: 236
Views: 6212

Re: Why are municipal bonds down 5% today?

Also note that EFTs got hit particularly hard, apparently due to liquidity issues. I think this is my 6th post in 2 days saying this - but as a former mutual fund accountant it us the other way around. With poor liquidity you get stale prices, stale prices means that the pricing models that the acc...
by Angst
Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Markets Truly Efficient?
Replies: 34
Views: 1006

Re: Are Markets Truly Efficient?

The authorized participant (AP) marketplace for the creation/redemption of ETF's - and Treasury's ETF's in particular - has not been particularly efficient recently.
by Angst
Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are BND and VBTLX so divergent?
Replies: 4
Views: 420

Re: Why are BND and VBTLX so divergent?

BND and VBTLX are supposedly different share classes of the same fund. Today, BND went up by 4.22%. But VBTLX went down by 0.53%. For a spread of 4.75%! Can someone please help me understand how this is possible? Looks like they were equilibrating a bit after yesterday's mess when BND closed at a -...
by Angst
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long TIPS yields wrong? Erroneous data wk of 3/2/20 finally corrected
Replies: 73
Views: 4131

Re: Long TIPS yields jump again at close? Not today (FRI 3/6)

It would seem that this is all over, but yes - FRED has yet to incorporate the corrected data. I expect that will come about next week but I have learned a bit more about how the data flows from one source to another that makes me interested enough to continue watching. Here is my current understan...
by Angst
Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term Inflation Protection Funds
Replies: 12
Views: 693

Re: Short Term Inflation Protection Funds

We had a thread asking this question on Monday, inquiring why the TIPS yield curve essentially inverted, with the shorter term yields all rising above the 10-year TIPS yield. Here's an updated chart, with today's TIPS yield curve in green: https://i.imgur.com/D6Gcvab.jpg Data source: U.S. Treasury ...
by Angst
Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Could EE bonds doubling time increase?
Replies: 5
Views: 594

Re: Could EE bonds doubling time increase?

samsoes wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:29 pmmost folks don't hold EE bonds for the full 20 years
Where did you find this information?
by Angst
Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations
Replies: 61
Views: 5308

Re: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations

...with the drop in oil prices, the risk of unexpected inflation is much less in the short term than it is down the road 10 years? I imagine this too, but also because of the various and presumably short-term Corona-related economic issues such as cutbacks in travel, shutdowns in convention busines...
by Angst
Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch
Replies: 163
Views: 29424

Re: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch

EE bonds look like a decent bet to me if the current trends continue, but of course they could also be a bad option in higher than average inflation, so I'm planning on buying half I Bonds and half EE bonds yearly until I hit my target allocations. I've been lucky over the last decade that I've bee...
by Angst
Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch
Replies: 163
Views: 29424

Re: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch

Anyone who's building a small Liability Matching Portfolio (LMP) of TIPS to complement their SS and other "guaranteed" income in retirement, will want to consider using the 0.2% I-Bonds for covering a rung in that LMP. And those 0.5% I-Bonds from 2019 and 2018 were also great TIPS substitutes for ru...
by Angst
Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations
Replies: 61
Views: 5308

Re: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations

Just a follow-up: how about the shorter-term TIPS? I always wonder why they don't show data for those here (and am guessing that's why they're not in your chart)... The chart posted just above captures more of the short-term TIPS yield curve, from today's WSJ web page. Don't know why the Treasury w...