Search found 2424 matches

by Angst
Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I'd like to buy 30-year treasury bonds
Replies: 34
Views: 1881

Re: I'd like to buy 30-year treasury bonds

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/quarterly-refunding/Documents/auctions.pdf I am planning to buy at the May 13 auction. Thank you for this helpful information. I have never bought a bond at auction before. Fred, In addition to getting the Announcement, Auction and Settleme...
by Angst
Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I'd like to buy 30-year treasury bonds
Replies: 34
Views: 1881

Re: I'd like to buy 30-year treasury bonds

A few weeks ago, I bought 5 short term treasuries at Vanguard....just to learn the process. I had to wait until after 8AM, then I logged in and went to Investing, CDs and Bonds. I had enough cash in my settlement account to cover my purchases...but you already know about that. I found what I wanted...
by Angst
Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Munis Increasingly Risky
Replies: 205
Views: 20476

Re: Larry Swedroe: Munis Increasingly Risky

And how do you think LENDX is going to do? Peer-to-Peer lending seems a little worrisome right now. I've chosen not to follow it so I really have no opinion. I've simplified things over time. I'm sticking with stocks and bonds, including SCV, Int'l SC, Treasuries, TIPS and savings bonds and rebalan...
by Angst
Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Munis Increasingly Risky
Replies: 205
Views: 20476

Re: Larry Swedroe: Munis Increasingly Risky

bck63 wrote: Fri Apr 10, 2020 3:11 pm
fredflinstone wrote: Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:55 pm Swedroe has been totally vindicated.
He's why I moved all my fixed income to treasuries.
He's why I bought PCRIX and QSPIX.
Just kidding, I love Larry, but it's ixnay on the IX-plays for me.
by Angst
Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I-Bonds: March 2020 BLS CPI-U report
Replies: 18
Views: 1869

Re: I-Bonds: March 2020 BLS CPI-U report

... from the BLS report this morning the new variable rate will be 1.06% (from an Sep 2019 to March 2020 increase of 0.53%). Yes, the 258.115 March CPI is a 0.53% increase over last September's 256.759. (To see, choose U.S. city average, All items - CUUR0000SA0 from the BLS CPI-U Top Picks page.) H...
by Angst
Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch
Replies: 163
Views: 29421

Re: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch

Thank you @Day9 for the call-out, I appreciate it! I agree that if you have a 20-year time horizon and you can *absolutely* hold for 20 years, EE Bonds are an amazing investment in March 2020. You'll get about 3.5% yield, tax-deferred, when you double your money at exactly 20 years. You don't doubl...
by Angst
Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 I Bonds: what's your plan?
Replies: 55
Views: 7843

Re: 2020 I Bonds: what's your plan?

Tipswatcher has said that the process the Treasury uses to set the fixed rate is undisclosed. His estimate is that it is usually 50bps less than where the 10 year TIPS constant maturity is at the time of May 1 (sort of). At this point, both the 5 year and 10 year TIPS constant maturity rate is well...
by Angst
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch
Replies: 163
Views: 29421

Re: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch

Somewhere between 0.0 and 0.2% - I'll guess 0.1%
by Angst
Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Price of long-term TIPS collapsed in mid-March. Why?
Replies: 10
Views: 951

Re: Price of long-term TIPS collapsed in mid-March. Why?

What accounts for this volatility... We had a few Forum posts about these wild gyrations in TIPS prices at the time. Those who commented felt it was, at first, panic selling of all assets (including safe assets like Treasuries) in a rush to cash, and then, a dramatic rebound due to the Fed announce...
by Angst
Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund
Replies: 114
Views: 36925

Re: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund

Ah, I see. I suppose it's either a typo or an inconsistency in their subset definitions. What else might it be? Could someone have forgotten to add the new Oct 2024 to the 1+ yr total, even though it made it into the 1-5 yr? If Treasury can mis-calculate the TIPS yield curve for almost a week and th...
by Angst
Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund
Replies: 114
Views: 36925

Re: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund

as another source, here are the real yields for some of the indices out of BloombergBarclaysLive as of 4/3: Is this info available at no charge on the internet, Grok? 1+ yr -0.09% (41 bonds) 41? I wonder which of the 42 TIPS maturing April 15, 2021 through February 15, 2050 is omitted and why? 1-5 ...
by Angst
Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch
Replies: 163
Views: 29421

Re: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch

One thing that I have wondered about, and so I thought I would ask here. What is the Treasury Department's rationale for having a $10,000 limit in the first place? As Mel said, perhaps they're targeted for "the small investor". For those of us who do find $10,000 to be a meaningful, significant ann...
by Angst
Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying Individual TIPS, How Do You Do It
Replies: 5
Views: 588

Re: Buying Individual TIPS, How Do You Do It

A TIPS fund has no more risks than any other bond fund. In fact it has one less risk, namely inflation risk. Any bond fund including a TIPS fund is like a rolling ladder of bonds except that you can only buy or sell the ladder as a whole . Thus to provide 15 years of spending with a fund you'd need...
by Angst
Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was 1970s inflation a one-time thing?
Replies: 57
Views: 4359

Re: Was 1970s inflation a one-time thing?

Just to be clear, the broad consensus is that inflation per se is not always or necessarily bad. The central bank's job is to print the right amount of money and use other policies in order to produce the right amount of inflation. For decades now, central banks have acknowledged inflation targets,...
by Angst
Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Replies: 573
Views: 38657

Re: Lets predict the bottom of this dip/recession

It'll be when Warren Buffett starts talking again.
by Angst
Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Will negative yields lead to increased risk-taking?
Replies: 23
Views: 1569

Re: Swedroe: Will negative yields lead to increased risk-taking?

Perhaps negative rates will help push people to think of rates in the terms that matter most: Real return. Today's 10-yr Treasury yield is at 0.62%. "At least that's not negative!" But the 10-yr Treasury real yield today is -0.46%, which suggests expected inflation 10 years out is roughly 1.08% What...
by Angst
Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS
Replies: 116
Views: 10979

Re: TIPS Negative Real Yield - SOLD!

I bought a big chunk of intermediate TIPS funds on 18 March when rates were ~ +0.5% (individual bonds were too tough to buy as were long term etf LTPZ due to lack of liquidity). With the rates now sunk down to ~ -0.5% the value is up ~10%. I'm torn between selling them for a quick profit or treasur...
by Angst
Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS
Replies: 116
Views: 10979

Re: TIPS Negative Real Yield - SOLD!

You must be trading in an alternative TIPS market to the one I see ? They were, briefly positive, but now that they've turned even more negative and the alternatives are offering higher yields, so the argument for selling and buying something else is much stronger that it was in late January. I sol...
by Angst
Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Negative T-bills
Replies: 39
Views: 2889

Re: Negative T-bills

Thanks for the information. Sounds like I should ditch my T-bills for MMA - at least for now. I missed my window for stopping a reinvestment that will be auctioned on Monday (noncompetitive bid). I learned quite a bit on this discussion too - thanks as always to the bogleheads! I did find this on t...
by Angst
Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS
Replies: 271
Views: 20722

Re: TIPS go Crazy!

One additional factor worth considering: In the interim, between the present when inflation is... whatever it is, and when inflation then has fallen to -2%, how much did your cash that you held all that time go up in value? Another factor worth considering: If over the course of an additional 6 mon...
by Angst
Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS
Replies: 271
Views: 20722

Re: TIPS go Crazy!

What's the real yield of a 1% coupon long Treasury if you have -2% deflation? Exactly 1% higher than 0%-yielding cash. That's the problem as I see it. Simple set of examples: One additional factor worth considering: In the interim, between the present when inflation is... whatever it is, and when i...
by Angst
Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Negative T-bills
Replies: 39
Views: 2889

Re: Negative T-bills

And remember that in the 1970s it was common to have money market accounts that paid 6% interest while inflation was 8-10% So rates were effectively negative on cash.... Yeah, exactly. Real rates are an elusive, hidden construct. But put a negative sign in front of people's nose and they're gonna n...
by Angst
Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS
Replies: 271
Views: 20722

Re: TIPS go Crazy!

a) I have no idea if flight to quality will behave the same. It might be interesting to find out. LTT still may be the cleanest dirty sheet in the laundry. b) No, I would not drop them due to a few years of negative yields. Such movements are temporary moments in time. I'm not ditching short TIPS b...
by Angst
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Negative T-bills
Replies: 39
Views: 2889

Re: Negative T-bills

Yes I see this price to yield thing all the time with BIL. The quoted price has a sawtooth pattern that tracks the monthly dividend. The price varies about 15 cents between dividends to reflect the earned dividend value. It also clearly shows the price disruption in the Tbill market that happened i...
by Angst
Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations
Replies: 61
Views: 5308

Re: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations

grok87 wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:43 pm
Angst wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:30 pm As I recall, LTPZ did have a large spread. Then again, many other bond funds did too.
right but it was also trading at a large discount to NAV
Oh yes, indeed. That's right! My mind is so stuck on secondary market TIPS spreads, not funds.
by Angst
Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Negative T-bills
Replies: 39
Views: 2889

Re: Negative T-bills

I am wondering how these low rates are going to filter through ETFs like BIL (and mutual funds like VFISX) . I am interpreting this to mean that the BIL fund will pay about 0.0 % interest. But the fund value will be higher than 100% of NAV. Correct? Please tell me how this will work. I'm certainly ...
by Angst
Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Negative T-bills
Replies: 39
Views: 2889

Re: Negative T-bills

So I do find it hard to imagine that Treasury doesn't already know what it will do about this and has a plan they can quickly implement once the time arrives. Would you agree? Would you care to speculate on what their plan may be? I'm sure the Treasury, who consults with the Fed which has a differe...
by Angst
Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations
Replies: 61
Views: 5308

Re: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations

As I recall, LTPZ did have a large spread. Then again, many other bond funds did too.
by Angst
Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Negative T-bills
Replies: 39
Views: 2889

Re: Negative T-bills

The bids are not for the price the bidder will pay. They're for the yield the bidder will accept. At present it isn't possible to bid for a negative yield on nominal Treasuries, but that's a matter of technology and policy. Both can be changed without an act of Congress. No institutional investors,...
by Angst
Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations
Replies: 61
Views: 5308

Re: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations

since march 9th 30 year tips have been on a wild ride from -0.20% on march 9th to +0.78% on march 19th to -0.11% yesterday evening (march 27th). in price terms, given the real duration of about 25, those 100 bps moves are about 25% price moves, down and up. grok, I really wanted to buy the Feb 2050...
by Angst
Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Negative T-bills
Replies: 39
Views: 2889

Re: Negative T-bills

It's also been my understanding that Treasury has already stated they would not issue TIPS (or bonds or notes either, I would assume) with less than a 0.125% coupon, but they certainly will accept bids that are high enough to make the effective YTM negative. Sounds like a distinction without a diff...
by Angst
Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Negative T-bills
Replies: 39
Views: 2889

Re: Negative T-bills

Unless something is changed, the Treasury will not issue bills at negative yields at auction (at least for non competitive bidders, not sure about competitive). They can only go negative on the secondary market. They still dont make sense for most of us at the moment, but I just wanted to clarify. ...
by Angst
Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Negative T-bills
Replies: 39
Views: 2889

Re: Negative T-bills

Unless something is changed, the Treasury will not issue bills at negative yields at auction (at least for non competitive bidders, not sure about competitive). They can only go negative on the secondary market. They still dont make sense for most of us at the moment, but I just wanted to clarify. ...
by Angst
Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS
Replies: 271
Views: 20722

Re: TIPS go Crazy!

Second, it's solely the spread that matters, not the movement of nominals vis à vis static TIPS as you seem to want to frame it. TIPS rates could drop 1% while nominals stay the same, or nominals could go up 1% while TIPS stay the same, it doesn't matter. More likely, they both move, and it still d...
by Angst
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS
Replies: 271
Views: 20722

Re: TIPS go Crazy!

I don’t have a question. I’m just stating that a change in future expected inflation has a huge effect on nominal bonds and should have little (and theoretically no) effect on bonds indexed to inflation (TIPs). If that’s not the case, then feel free to correct me. First, I don't think it's taken as...
by Angst
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS
Replies: 271
Views: 20722

Re: TIPS are going crazy!

Has the market's expectation of forward inflation been that volatile? I would think the market’s expectation of forward inflation would have no effect on TIPs prices. I'm not so sure. Why would it have an effect? What’s the reason you’re unsure? I would assume that if the market expected forward in...
by Angst
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding Bond ETF Discounts
Replies: 65
Views: 4467

Re: Understanding Bond ETF Discounts

To bend your head a bit, the biggest jump forward in efficiency and liquidity over the past 20 years has been bond ETFs. Anyways, try to stay healthy. If you got more questions I will be around. We certainly have come a long way and it does makes sense to me that ETF's have had a positive effect ov...
by Angst
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS
Replies: 271
Views: 20722

Re: TIPS go Crazy!

I understand chief and don't fault your logic - the big thing is getting a decent rung in the ladder locked in place. I'm just cheap though, I can't bring myself to pay for a spread measured in 100's of basis points. Remember that the spread isn't something you necessarily "pay for," and definitely...
by Angst
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Total Bond Fund Wash Sale Alternatives
Replies: 4
Views: 274

Re: Total Bond Fund Wash Sale Alternatives

Alkali Ike wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:41 pm I must admit that BIV was not even on my radar. Thank you for a great suggestion !! :D
+1 on BIV. It's a better match for your original funds than any of the TLH partners you're considering.
by Angst
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS
Replies: 271
Views: 20722

Re: TIPS go Crazy!

I only focus on the "ask" ytm. I only buy TIPS to hold to maturity (ten year ladder), so the spread doesn't mean much to me. If I can get an acceptable ytm, then I'm fine buying in the secondary market. I understand chief and don't fault your logic - the big thing is getting a decent rung in the la...
by Angst
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding Bond ETF Discounts
Replies: 65
Views: 4467

Re: Understanding Bond ETF Discounts

Thanks alex_686 for your responses to my 4 numbered observations. I think I understand most everything you're bringing up while at the same time it feels like we're looking at things from different perspectives, and it might just be taking things into the weeds unproductively (and unnecessarily) to ...
by Angst
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Treasury Market locked up
Replies: 35
Views: 4284

Re: Treasury Market locked up

I look forward to the day when the bond markets operate more like the equity markets, at least to the extent of having limit up and down pricing. Perhaps there's reason to hope, but I don't really know. Here's a post from another thread that I think is relevant: Thanks Rick for posting the link. I w...
by Angst
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS
Replies: 271
Views: 20722

Re: TIPS go Crazy!

I have routinely been seeing spreads on the price you have to pay of between 2 and 5% Posted spreads should not be nearly that wide when bond markets are open: are you looking during the day, or primary after hours? This is the price bid/ask for the FEB 2050 TIPS on Vanguard brokerage now: 104.914/...
by Angst
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS
Replies: 271
Views: 20722

Re: TIPS go Crazy!

Buying at auction was a gift this time, but how are BH's buying in the secondary market these days?
How do you bridge that gap between your pickup truck and the loading dock?

I have routinely been seeing spreads on the price you have to pay of between 2 and 5%
by Angst
Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS
Replies: 271
Views: 20722

Re: TIPS go Crazy!

Can't help myself, I'm updating the OP's data... TIPS Yields 5YR 7YR 10YR 20YR 30YR 03/09/20 -0.32 -0.39 -0.45 -0.42 -0.20 03/10/20 -0.14 -0.23 -0.24 -0.08 0.06 03/11/20 -0.03 -0.13 -0.14 0.00 0.13 03/12/20 0.03 -0.04 -0.04 0.14 0.30 03/13/20 0.17 0.07 0.04 0.22 0.39 03/16/20 0.19 0.04 0.00 0.17 0.3...
by Angst
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding Bond ETF Discounts
Replies: 65
Views: 4467

Re: Understanding Bond ETF Discounts

2) I imagine Vanguard often has a good handle on the expected dollar size of daily buy and sell orders for VBTLX before market close, perhaps well before close? And therefore is making transactions in the bond market that day to manage any expected net change. 3) As of 2/29, VBTLX held almost $7B i...
by Angst
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding Bond ETF Discounts
Replies: 65
Views: 4467

Re: Understanding Bond ETF Discounts

Thanks for mentioning this, as I think this is a wildly under-appreciated aspect of this situation: stay-the-course VBTLX investors have been subsidizing panic sellers and/or market timers for the past eight days or so. That's a wealth transfer that would absolutely rub me the wrong way, even if on...
by Angst
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding Bond ETF Discounts
Replies: 65
Views: 4467

Re: Understanding Bond ETF Discounts

Bump... Thanks Rick for posting the link. I was pleased with how much of the interview was devoted to a discussion of specific shortcomings in the mechanics of the "bond market" as well as the potential for making improvements. Here are a couple paragraphs of dialog with Reggie Browne that I found e...