Search found 2426 matches

by Angst
Sat Jul 18, 2020 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do with significant index changes, e.g., S&P 500 adding Tesla
Replies: 200
Views: 17466

Re: What to do with significant index changes, e.g., S&P 500 adding Tesla

This is one of the best vids/articles Ive seen on S&P inclusion, goes thru the float, possible secondary offering due to this and impact. https://youtu.be/JN8PNPBkaWc An inaccuracy in the video is the claim that the index providers managing S&P500 funds need to buy all of the shares that they add t...
by Angst
Sat Jul 18, 2020 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS/LMP Concerns
Replies: 41
Views: 1765

Re: TIPS/LMP Concerns

I have established a liability duration matching portfolio (LDI) and allocated TIPS funds (LTPZ and FIPDX) in duration matched amounts to give me the income stream to fund retirement (26 years) (Many thanks to bobk, vineviz, Nisiprius, CUlater, FIREchief, bigskyguy, and others who have educated me ...
by Angst
Sat Jul 18, 2020 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should everyone have TIPS?
Replies: 82
Views: 5054

Re: Should everyone have TIPS?

The only long duration TIPS fund that is broadly available is the PIMCO 15+ years fund LTPZ. It’s also a good fund, though honestly I’d suggest looking into individual TIPS in tax-advantaged accounts or Series I savings bonds with post-tax dollars. hudson, I agree with and encourage the idea of buy...
by Angst
Sat Jul 18, 2020 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should everyone have TIPS?
Replies: 82
Views: 5054

Re: Should everyone have TIPS?

I'm familiar with Vanguard's TIPS products. I know about buying individual TIPS and Ibonds. I recently learned about PIMCO 15+ Year U.S. TIPS Index Exchange-Traded Fund (LTPZ). What other inflation protect products are worth looking at? It sounds to me like you have things covered. Presumably you'r...
by Angst
Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Behavior of TIPS versus Treasuries in March
Replies: 141
Views: 7044

Re: Behavior of TIPS versus Treasuries in March

i have also been pitched this line, that bond ETF prices are more accurate in "these times". The people pitching it to me were ETF salespeople! :) LOL. I don't believe it. That's too bad, but it is unquestionably true. Yes, I'm inclined to accept that the ETF price is still better than "NAV" during...
by Angst
Thu Jul 16, 2020 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Behavior of TIPS versus Treasuries in March
Replies: 141
Views: 7044

Re: Behavior of TIPS versus Treasuries in March

Oh my, well I guess that's conceivable, and even a discontinuation of the dollar for a new currency is conceivable, but all of this could quickly devolve into the philosophy of epistemology, and I don't want to go there, and LadyGeek probably doesn't want us to either. In my world, I consider I Bon...
by Angst
Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Behavior of TIPS versus Treasuries in March
Replies: 141
Views: 7044

Re: Behavior of TIPS versus Treasuries in March

I'm starting to think about my bonds as a safety component but I'm wondering if TIPs should have a large part in the portfolio if this is the expected behavior. If by safe you mean that it is guaranteed you can get all your money back at any arbitrary time, then no investment that is valued by trad...
by Angst
Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Behavior of TIPS versus Treasuries in March
Replies: 141
Views: 7044

Re: Behavior of TIPS versus Treasuries in March

I'm starting to think about my bonds as a safety component but I'm wondering if TIPs should have a large part in the portfolio if this is the expected behavior. If by safe you mean that it is guaranteed you can get all your money back at any arbitrary time, then no investment that is valued by trad...
by Angst
Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Behavior of TIPS versus Treasuries in March
Replies: 141
Views: 7044

Re: Behavior of TIPS versus Treasuries in March

Question...If we had deflation, like Switzerland has (-1.3%) how would that impact the market price of a TIPS fund, given the fact that individual TIPS bonds protect against deflation? I find that the protection against deflation that individual TIPS can afford is highly overblown. If you bought a ...
by Angst
Wed Jul 15, 2020 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Behavior of TIPS versus Treasuries in March
Replies: 141
Views: 7044

Re: Behavior of TIPS versus Treasuries in March

With the sudden appearance of what appears/appeared to be a massive economic slowdown, investors were adjusting their expectations to price in a recession of unknown magnitude and duration. Recessions usually mean either less inflation or outright deflation, so this is a scenario in which you'd exp...
by Angst
Tue Jul 14, 2020 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Almost half of BRK's portfolio in publicly traded companies is AAPL
Replies: 26
Views: 4097

20% of BRK Market Value is AAPL

TropikThunder wrote: Tue Jul 14, 2020 10:26 pm At some point shouldn't this thread title be changed?
I certainly agree.
So, is APPL's position in the hierarchy of equity capitalization in US equity market indexes "discounted" by this amount in BRK? I'm having trouble wrapping my brain around that. I think not, but should it?
by Angst
Tue Jul 14, 2020 9:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tree trimming estimate.
Replies: 39
Views: 2045

Re: Tree trimming estimate.

Can't imagine it taking more than an hour, two tops. I will disagree with your time estimates. You probably forgot the driving time to and from the job site. One still has to pay the hourly wage to workers who are in the truck. I hope you will be able to report back the total time it took on the jo...
by Angst
Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Converting VBTLX to BND, timing issues?
Replies: 19
Views: 1156

Re: Converting VBTLX to BND, timing issues?

Does Vanguard let you buy ETFs with no money in your settlement fund? Yes! I do it all the time. But then the same day that I've bought ETFs, I also enter a trade to transfer dollars from one of my Vanguard MFs to my settlement account. (I believe I could even wait a day to sell the MF to cover the...
by Angst
Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Converting VBTLX to BND, timing issues?
Replies: 19
Views: 1156

Re: Converting VBTLX to BND, timing issues?

This is not correct, you can buy the ETF and sell Vanguard MF the same day to cover it in the same account. What happens if there is a shortfall? The OP stated you'd have to first sell the MF and then wait for the funds to clear to the settlement fund. This, in and of itself, is incorrect - you can...
by Angst
Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Converting VBTLX to BND, timing issues?
Replies: 19
Views: 1156

Re: Converting VBTLX to BND, timing issues?

I want to convert a large position (more than $1M) in VBTLX to the ETF shares (BND) in a Vanguard tIRA account. Vanguard doesn't offer automatic conversions for VBTLX so I have to sell, wait for the sale to settle, then buy BND. Are there any timing issues I should know about? Should I try to accom...
by Angst
Mon Jul 13, 2020 3:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: hyper inflation hedges
Replies: 54
Views: 2903

Re: hyper inflation hedges

If you don't like the risk of the dollar, don't own as many dollar-dominated assets. There are several ways I can think of to accomplish that. You can also borrow dollars, which creates a short position on dollars. The trick is to invest in something that will not greatly reduce your expected retur...
by Angst
Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) ETF
Replies: 78
Views: 6409

Re: U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) ETF

* This is a strange TIPS auction unlike any I've ever seen. (But it still works fine for illustrating the two meanings for "price".) I suspect it took place to meet some technical Treasury requirement. I'd be interested to hear from anyone who knows its purpose. It is for a tiny amount: only $25 mi...
by Angst
Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who is your favorite fiction author and what is your favorite book of theirs?
Replies: 172
Views: 10903

Re: Who is your favorite fiction author and what is your favorite book of theirs?

Sir Walter Scott's "Ivanhoe", or maybe Alexander Dumas's "The Count of Monte Cristo"... But there are so many...
by Angst
Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do with significant index changes, e.g., S&P 500 adding Tesla
Replies: 200
Views: 17466

Re: What to do with significant index changes, e.g., S&P 500 adding Tesla

Perhaps the larger stocks in the various S&P 500 Completion Index funds out there (like VEXAX ) get to look forward to something of a bump when Tesla leaves? :D Tesla represents about 2.5% of the index 1500?!? The S&P 1500 does not "complete" the S&P 500, it includes it, and it also includes the S&...
by Angst
Fri Jul 10, 2020 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do with significant index changes, e.g., S&P 500 adding Tesla
Replies: 200
Views: 17466

Re: What to do with significant index changes, e.g., S&P 500 adding Tesla

Perhaps the larger stocks in the various S&P 500 Completion Index funds out there (like VEXAX) get to look forward to something of a bump when Tesla leaves? :D

Tesla represents about 2.5% of the index
by Angst
Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) ETF
Replies: 78
Views: 6409

Re: U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) ETF

The question then becomes to independently explain either prices or yields without using one to explain the other. Supposing it to actually be so, the FED would be such an independent cause for interest rates and then you turn over the coin and see the prices on the other face. But I really have li...
by Angst
Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) ETF
Replies: 78
Views: 6409

Re: U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) ETF

Hi dbr, Thank you for the very in-depth answer, but, looking back, seems it was a failure on my part not to give more context about what I was asking. I own both 5-yr TIPS bonds, as well as Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund Admiral Shares (VAIPX). When I look at my online account at the ...
by Angst
Wed Jul 08, 2020 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Stone Ridge interval funds, 1) bitcoin futures, 2) for 65-year-old women only (sort of)
Replies: 28
Views: 1922

Re: New Stone Ridge interval funds, 1) bitcoin futures, 2) for 65-year-old women only (sort of)

I hate interval funds, because of the liquidity restrictions. However, the second fund is kind of interesting. Isn’t this basically trying to create a tontine, which would actually be a useful product. If the fees are less than a SPIA, it might be worth investigating. Understanding the disclaimer a...
by Angst
Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) ETF
Replies: 78
Views: 6409

Re: U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) ETF

Thank you for that concise explanation. Just want to make sure I got this...Right now inflation expectations for the next five years is 1.26% (going by the 5-year breakeven). If you have a five-year TIPS bond currently, if expected inflation goes up above 1.26%, your TIPS bond's price will increase...
by Angst
Sun Jul 05, 2020 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reaching for Yield: Is It Really Different This Time?
Replies: 79
Views: 5800

Re: Reaching for Yield: Is It Really Different This Time?

It is definitely true that bond yields are lower than ever. The question is what that means. I don't see Siegel etc as "reaching for yield" so much as saying the risk adjusted expected return for stocks is more compelling when bond rates and expected return are so low. Similar to those who say you ...
by Angst
Sun Jun 28, 2020 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bond duration glide path for retirement investing
Replies: 61
Views: 4826

Re: A bond duration glide path for retirement investing

Someone suggested that it might be helpful to show how an investor might use the duration glide path with a little more specificity, so I constructed this example glide path using an assortment of bond funds and a generic stock allocation. https://i.imgur.com/7M8Fdxf.png Don't fixate on the particu...
by Angst
Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Definition of "Diversifying Assets"?
Replies: 16
Views: 1117

Re: Definition of "Diversifying Assets"?

Yes, comprise (good catch). Yes, I will read further and educate everyone if Swensen does define the term later in the book. That sounds like a good plan, and there are many other useful books recommended in the forum's Wiki for more perspective. Incidentally, the Wiki also has a page on diversific...
by Angst
Tue Jun 02, 2020 3:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Falcon 9 Launch to the International Space Station
Replies: 129
Views: 8796

Re: Falcon 9 Launch to the International Space Station

LadyGeek wrote: Tue Jun 02, 2020 3:39 pm You're welcome. Check your video settings - It's even better in 1080p. They just stated that they'll keep going until 5 PM Eastern (20 minutes from now).

(Thanks to 4nursebee for finding the video.)
Oh yes! That IS better! :)
by Angst
Tue Jun 02, 2020 3:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Falcon 9 Launch to the International Space Station
Replies: 129
Views: 8796

Re: Falcon 9 Launch to the International Space Station

Awesome, thanks! 8-) I missed the actual entrance into the port, but all you have to do is move the YouTube slider to the left and it backs up to the start of the broadcast. I watched it that way. Now watching live. BTW: Love the name of the second droneship (currently deployed to the StarLink miss...
by Angst
Thu May 28, 2020 5:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tips to stick to a weight loss diet?
Replies: 183
Views: 10289

Re: Tips to stick to a weight loss diet?

Wow Trev, that's remarkable and fascinating. Congrats on your success! I imagine it's taken quite a mix of patience and persistence (and intelligence) to accomplish what you've done. That's just great! Do you foresee ever attempting to selectively re-introduce any type of carbohydrate into you diet?
by Angst
Thu May 28, 2020 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The "Best of" for Aldi?
Replies: 135
Views: 11777

Re: The "Best of" for Aldi?

Therein lies the difference for us ; we aren't buying much processed food, it's hard for Aldi to mess up a stalk of broccoli or chicken breast, but the prices beat competitors. We haven't tried their cereal or granola bars. I love Aldi for its value, but one needs to be a careful shopper, at least ...
by Angst
Thu May 28, 2020 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman-Sachs Compares Bitcoin to the Tulip Bubble
Replies: 58
Views: 4001

Re: Goldman-Sachs Compares Bitcoin to the Tulip Bubble

Archive copy if you hit a Bloomberg block... http://archive.is/M7Ang And what I believe is the slideshow / report being talked about: https://resources.goldman.com/content/dam/pwm/direct-links/isg-calls/client_call_materials_27May20.pdf?sa=n&rd=n All discussion about bitcoin aside, I found the GS s...
by Angst
Wed May 27, 2020 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”
Replies: 233
Views: 19651

Re: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”

Having experienced a 7-figure loss in value during the 2008 financial crisis, I think I'm ready to stop playing. My fear relates to high or hyper inflation esp following the financing of the current crisis. I recall in the 70s and 80s we had several years of 10% +/- inflation. Salaries virtually do...
by Angst
Sat May 23, 2020 1:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Personal spending out of control after Covid-19
Replies: 124
Views: 10971

Re: Personal spending out of control after Covid-19

Going to a Crepe Myrtle is an interesting choice as that tree is super super super messy. Sorry, but this doesn't bode well. :shock: Be prepared for plenty of raking and clean-up. The alcohol issue is similar to what I've seen with a number of friends. I wonder if there isn't a forced excess of rou...
by Angst
Sat May 23, 2020 8:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Choice between two Vanguard funds for short term money
Replies: 12
Views: 1287

Re: Choice between two Vanguard funds for short term money

My concern with Vanguard Short-Term Inflation Protected Securities (VTSPX) is duration and possible short term nominal losses. The duration is 2.7 years... Not part of the "Brain Trust" here, but without thinking too hard, 2.7 years sounds to me like it might actually be a reasonable ballpark guess...
by Angst
Tue May 19, 2020 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 9570

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

Emerging definition of markets has nothing to do with economy size. It has to do with ease of capital inflow and outflow, shareholder protections, openness to foreign ownership, market ownership, market entry for investors and market infrastructure such as clearing, settlement, custody, lending, sh...
by Angst
Tue May 19, 2020 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 9570

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

Why China even is classified as ‘Emerging’ it is presumably second economy in the world? Something is shady about all this. Yes indeed, but I think it's you that's in the shade here. 8-) With minimal effort online one can shed some light on the issue by looking for the criteria that the likes of FT...
by Angst
Tue May 19, 2020 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 9570

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

The reason to avoid China's equity markets can be summarized in one word: dilution. The best estimates are that the Chinese equity markets dilute their share pools on the order of about 20% per year, so even if the country is growing its GDP and corporate profits at slightly less than 10% pa, they ...
by Angst
Mon May 18, 2020 9:22 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Factor regression analysis on Vanguard Global Value Factor ETF (vvl.to)
Replies: 10
Views: 975

Re: Factor regression analysis on Vanguard Global Value Factor ETF (vvl.to)

US investors should know that this ETF is from Vanguard Canada. Although it's investment rules and implementation appear to be in keeping with the Vanguard factor ETFs provided in the US, we don't have access to it. I wish we did... https://www.vanguardcanada.ca/advisors/products/en/detail/etf/9795/...
by Angst
Mon May 11, 2020 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reacting to low interest rates
Replies: 80
Views: 6440

Re: Reacting to low interest rates

Should this be more of a "Do I Still Need an Emergency Fund" thread? If so, I think the answer might be "no". For people who have multiple years worth of taxable savings already I generally believe that "Emergency Funds", per se, are unnecessary. Have you already put dollars into I-Bonds? They have ...
by Angst
Thu May 07, 2020 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: June "Bogleheads on Investing" guest will be Dr. Ed Yardeni
Replies: 9
Views: 1096

Re: June "Bogleheads on Investing" guest will be Dr. Ed Yardeni

This sounds great Rick, thank you.

Q1 - Why did Treasury decide to set the floor on coupons at 0.125% (for Treasury bonds and notes) rather than 0.0%, and does he agree with this decision?

Q2 - What are his thoughts in detail on future inflation levels in the US and worldwide?
by Angst
Mon May 04, 2020 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid
Replies: 56
Views: 8296

Re: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid

The above mentioned alternatives (LENDX, SRRIX, AVRPX, QSPRX) have equity like expected returns ... What I want.... is explicit percentages and std deviations of expected returns for those alts. 6% return and standard deviation about 10% I think are reasonable numbers Dave Thank you Dave, this is h...
by Angst
Sun May 03, 2020 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid
Replies: 56
Views: 8296

Re: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid

The above mentioned alternatives (LENDX, SRRIX, AVRPX, QSPRX) have equity like expected returns ... What I want.... is explicit percentages and std deviations of expected returns for those alts. 6% return and standard deviation about 10% I think are reasonable numbers Dave Thank you Dave, this is h...
by Angst
Sat May 02, 2020 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid
Replies: 56
Views: 8296

Re: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid

The above mentioned alternatives (LENDX, SRRIX, AVRPX, QSPRX) have equity like expected returns ... Please... that phrase should be banned from the forum. The only way to achieve "equity like expected returns" is with equity. Otherwise it's just marketing. Do you estimate expected returns for equit...
by Angst
Sat May 02, 2020 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid
Replies: 56
Views: 8296

Re: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid

Random Walker wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 9:50 pmThe above mentioned alternatives (LENDX, SRRIX, AVRPX, QSPRX) have equity like expected returns...
Please... that phrase should be banned from the forum. The only way to achieve "equity like expected returns" is with equity. Otherwise it's just marketing.
by Angst
Sat May 02, 2020 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch
Replies: 163
Views: 29433

Re: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch

Just so you know. If you find yourself approaching the phase-out income limit for using your I Bonds tax-free for qualifying educational expenses, you can always contribute to a 529 College Savings Plan while you're still eligible. The 529 is a qualifying educational expense and can continue to gro...
by Angst
Sat May 02, 2020 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed to Start Managing the Yield Curve?
Replies: 13
Views: 2046

Re: Fed to Start Managing the Yield Curve?

Before the Accord, the New York Fed had run the market for government securities with an iron fist. A government securities dealer who wanted to change the price of a government bond by even a minuscule fractional amount would call Robert G. Rouse (head of the Fed’s New York Trading Desk) for permi...
by Angst
Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed to Start Managing the Yield Curve?
Replies: 13
Views: 2046

Re: Fed to Start Managing the Yield Curve?

From the Fed's point of view, one thing about yield curve control that's different from QE is that the bonds they are buying wouldn't be added to their (already ballooning) balance sheet. Their plan, as I understand it, would be to just let the bonds they buy retire as they mature — so the program ...
by Angst
Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch
Replies: 163
Views: 29433

Re: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch

For further reading: TipsWatch's calculation of the upcoming variable rate Treasury Direct I-bond Rates & Terms And if you really want all the legal mumbo-jumbo, check out Savings Bond Regulations , especially Part 359 Subpart A Thank you for this detailed explanation. Yes, I've updated my own orig...