Search found 4631 matches

by Noobvestor
Sun Mar 04, 2018 11:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 18541

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

People often ask what purpose cash has in a portfolio. Cash serves two purposes; it’s either waiting to be invested or it’s waiting to be spent. Rick Ferri I read this as you saying 'cash is not an investment' - correct? For the record, cash and cash equivalents are composed of investments that mat...
by Noobvestor
Sat Mar 03, 2018 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: IPS – looking for details from Nisiprius, Livesoft and others
Replies: 39
Views: 4588

Re: IPS – looking for details from Nisiprius, Livesoft and others

I confess to having engaged in Simplicity Heresy in that my IPS is probably (IIRC) about 8 pages long. I was greatly influenced by a confluence of writers outside the fields of economics, investing, and personal finance regarding the dangers of confusing outcome with process in decision-making. I w...
by Noobvestor
Sat Mar 03, 2018 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Flagship Select Services
Replies: 17
Views: 2819

Re: Vanguard Flagship Select Services

Thanks everyone. Just hate dealing with the hard sell. They will often ask if you want PAS or a portfolio review. If you say no, the will not push it all. I have had 3 different Flagship Reps over the past 10 years and they have all been very helpful and never sales-y. Same for me. Polite, very fri...
by Noobvestor
Fri Mar 02, 2018 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harvard blows $1Billion picking stocks, averaged 4.4% returns over last decade
Replies: 79
Views: 10526

Re: Harvard blows $1Billion picking stocks, averaged 4.4% returns over last decade

Investing $37.6 billion with a time frame of infinity is different than what individual investors do. With $37.6 billion, you don’t have to buy an index fund, you can run your own index fund. For reference, Schwab’s total market etf SCHB has about $11.6 billion in AUM. That's a very selective pick....
by Noobvestor
Fri Mar 02, 2018 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harvard blows $1Billion picking stocks, averaged 4.4% returns over last decade
Replies: 79
Views: 10526

Re: Harvard blows $1Billion picking stocks, averaged 4.4% returns over last decade

Investing $37.6 billion with a time frame of infinity is different than what individual investors do. With $37.6 billion, you don’t have to buy an index fund, you can run your own index fund. For reference, Schwab’s total market etf SCHB has about $11.6 billion in AUM. That's a very selective pick....
by Noobvestor
Fri Mar 02, 2018 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harvard blows $1Billion picking stocks, averaged 4.4% returns over last decade
Replies: 79
Views: 10526

Re: Harvard blows $1Billion picking stocks, averaged 4.4% returns over last decade

I'm sincerely not trying to be difficult here, and am sure you know a lot more about this than I do, but I'm still trying to understand. In general, endowments have certain funding requirements they need to meet both short- and long-term. That demands a return that takes into account risk b/c one ca...
by Noobvestor
Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harvard blows $1Billion picking stocks, averaged 4.4% returns over last decade
Replies: 79
Views: 10526

Re: Harvard blows $1Billion picking stocks, averaged 4.4% returns over last decade

Why doesn't Havard chose 3 fund folio? Do they think they are smarter than market? Endowments, like pensions have the problem of diversifying risk, while maximizing returns. It's very difficult to take billions of dollars and invest it in index funds without overweighting to stocks, regions, indust...
by Noobvestor
Thu Mar 01, 2018 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Paradigm for Long-term Inflation Risk?
Replies: 29
Views: 1881

Re: Your Paradigm for Long-term Inflation Risk?

Ugh, I should learn to bookmark things better. A while ago (on here, I think) someone posted a good chart showing how different asset classes performed at different inflation rates. Now I can't find it! If anyone knows what I'm talking about, I'd love a link to it. Anyway, I am still accumulating, b...
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 27, 2018 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Correction Protection In Liquid Alts
Replies: 33
Views: 2591

Re: Larry Swedroe: Correction Protection In Liquid Alts

Returns: Jan 29 to Feb 9 2018 P1 = -6.8% P2 = -6.8% Returns: 2017 P1 = 18.7% P2 = 18.7% Robert . Down to a tenth of a percent, no less 8-) Come again? All Robert T's post shows is the returns of "Alternatives **" matching the returns of iShares' 3-7 yr Treasuries. Do you call that "equity like" ret...
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 27, 2018 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Correction Protection In Liquid Alts
Replies: 33
Views: 2591

Re: Larry Swedroe: Correction Protection In Liquid Alts

Robert T wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:34 am
Returns: Jan 29 to Feb 9 2018
  • P1 = -6.8%
    P2 = -6.8%
Returns: 2017
  • P1 = 18.7%
    P2 = 18.7%
Robert
.
Down to a tenth of a percent, no less 8-)
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:43 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Nisiprius at 35,000 posts
Replies: 60
Views: 5166

Re: Nisiprius at 35,000 posts

. . . a "Best of Nisi" thread--a retrospective of his best work. Two words: Hindenburg Omen. :D Ohhh - the Hindenburg Omen thread is hilarious! Nisi at his quintessential "analytical" best :P A day-by-day Nisi evaluation of the pending 2010 market apocalypse. Confirmed Hindenburg Omen on 8/20 - any...
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I Stay or Should I Go?
Replies: 30
Views: 3399

Re: Should I Stay or Should I Go?

To paraphrase a famous song: "If you go, there will be trouble .. and if you stay it will be double." Get out. Now.
by Noobvestor
Sat Feb 24, 2018 10:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: # X Gross = Home price?
Replies: 81
Views: 6078

Re: # X Gross = Home price?

Is there something in CA... For many people it's family or a job that isn't portable. You could argue that it you need to pay 5x your income for a "starter house" , you're getting paid very little, and your job isn't worth keeping. That, or maybe you're just a normal person living in the Bay Area ....
by Noobvestor
Sat Feb 24, 2018 2:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how did you determine your risk tolerance?
Replies: 138
Views: 8305

Re: how did you determine your risk tolerance?

I realized that volatility isn't risk for me and that inflation is a major risk for me. Since I'm very risk adverse, I am 100% equities. I strongly suspect that if inflation is your biggest fear, mixing some TIPS in with your equities would help. In high-inflation environments, equities tend to do ...
by Noobvestor
Fri Feb 23, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About
Replies: 118
Views: 10945

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About

A few open questions for anyone who wants to venture an answer: 1) What would someone do who agreed with Larry's prognosis but didn't want to venture outside of, say, Vanguard funds? 2) I know their histories are limited, but has he or anyone back-tested these funds alone or in combination, in theor...
by Noobvestor
Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 0.46% more after-tax yield enough to justify muni risk?
Replies: 9
Views: 1142

Re: Is 0.46% more after-tax yield enough to justify muni risk?

VBTLX isn't tax efficient and, as others have pointed out, it also carries a mix of risks that are hard to compare directly. I would compare to VSIAX, intermediate-term Treasuries. Indeed, I had the same question recently, and given the state savings of Treasuries versus the federal savings of tax-e...
by Noobvestor
Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices
Replies: 36
Views: 6749

Re: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices

Should I be comparing the APR of a CD to the equivalent average annual returns on the bonds (in this case 2.02% for 1yr)? Use SEC yield for funds. The other numbers are backward looking, like it would be to say "last year I made 2.5% in a 1 year CD at X Bank" -- well, that was then and I need to lo...
by Noobvestor
Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: For munis: state specific or non-state specific funds best?
Replies: 14
Views: 1565

Re: For munis: state specific or non-state specific funds best?

Whenever I've run the numbers on state-specific versus federal muni funds (adjusting for taxes), they have come out around even (and that's being in CA, a high-state-tax state). When comparing muni funds, it's better to compare the taxes assuming the same yield; any yield difference is compensation...
by Noobvestor
Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Still lose with bonds even at duration
Replies: 41
Views: 5096

Re: Still lose with bonds even at duration

So, is my case a good situation to Tax Loss Harvest? Say, I sell these bonds and take a loss of $2,600... I can apply this loss to my ordinary income and get 33% back? So, in this situation I decrease my "losses" from $2,600 to $1,742. Then I can wait 30 days to avoid wash sale rules and pickup VBT...
by Noobvestor
Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Still lose with bonds even at duration
Replies: 41
Views: 5096

Re: Still lose with bonds even at duration

You have just demonstrated why you should not hold taxable bonds in taxable when you're in the 33% tax bracket. http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/tax-analysis.action?t=VBTLX®ion=usa&culture=en_US Paul What's the alternative if you're out of space in tax-deferred? Put everything in munis? T...
by Noobvestor
Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do I unwind this Wealthfront mess?
Replies: 75
Views: 9602

Re: How do I unwind this Wealthfront mess?

A lot of tail-wagging-the-dog advice here. Don't let taxes be the only factor in your decision. Step 0 is to educate yourself on all your holdings to decide which you want to keep. For anything you don't understand or are unwilling to devote the time to, sell ASAP. Or to quickly simplify your portf...
by Noobvestor
Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1434973

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Edited to delete content re:whoops - I read the ticker wrong (thanks aptly-named visualguy for noticing!)
by Noobvestor
Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over
Replies: 81
Views: 12885

Re: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over

Personally I would move away from any "emerging market" funds, not only has it gotten nowhere so long, but I think it will continue to go nowhere because emerging markets are corrupt so you dont ever get accurate anything and all their stocks are corrupt due to false numbers, data, bribary etc... I...
by Noobvestor
Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: For munis: state specific or non-state specific funds best?
Replies: 14
Views: 1565

Re: For munis: state specific or non-state specific funds best?

Whenever I've run the numbers on state-specific versus federal muni funds (adjusting for taxes), they have come out around even (and that's being in CA, a high-state-tax state). I would recommend doing the math on your tax bracket with actual fund yields. When the results are close to the same, I ha...
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 20, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do I unwind this Wealthfront mess?
Replies: 75
Views: 9602

Re: How do I unwind this Wealthfront mess?

Something else to consider: use the Vanguard 'Portfolio Watch' tool set to see what your actual current breakdowns are for stocks/bonds, US/international, etc... it will help you keep track of the big picture as you try to wind down these individual holdings.
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 20, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do I unwind this Wealthfront mess?
Replies: 75
Views: 9602

Re: How do I unwind this Wealthfront mess?

Well ... huh. I didn't know Wealthfront or any of the robos traded individual stocks. Was that your choice? Painful, regardless. Here's what I'd recommend, or do myself, more or less in order: 1) Hold anything with short-term gains long enough for them to become long-term gains 2) Assess your future...
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias
Replies: 113
Views: 8392

Re: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias

So just to clarify along the same lines, those who hold the Vanguard or Fidelity total international fund, are they protected against the USD being weak in the future? If so, then why isn't international investing accepted unanimously on this forum (a lot of folks only like holding the total US sto...
by Noobvestor
Mon Feb 19, 2018 1:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias
Replies: 113
Views: 8392

Re: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias

I don’t own a dozen stocks because rebalancing on my own would be a pain - also I saw a study that showed owning the largest 40 companies provided substantially the same diversification effects as the S&P 500 so I wouldn’t be too opposed to only having 40 companies. Citation please? Quoting Bill Be...
by Noobvestor
Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over
Replies: 81
Views: 12885

Re: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over

As for Emerging markets suffering from corruption, I suspect the market knows that already. Interesting to note the current statistics from Vanguard’s website below. Though emerging markets and the U.S. market currently have almost identical projected earnings growth rates and return-on-equity, the...
by Noobvestor
Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over
Replies: 81
Views: 12885

Re: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over

Personally I would move away from any "emerging market" funds, not only has it gotten nowhere so long, but I think it will continue to go nowhere because emerging markets are corrupt so you dont ever get accurate anything and all their stocks are corrupt due to false numbers, data, bribary etc... I...
by Noobvestor
Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I reduced my exposure to US stocks before the correction.
Replies: 39
Views: 4392

Re: I reduced my exposure to US stocks before the correction.

International/emerging have looked like better deals for years now. At a few points, I thought idly about tilting more in that direction (I'm 50/50 US/international) - it would not have worked out to my advantage. To critics of OP: Bogle has himself tilted his portfolio modestly based on market valu...
by Noobvestor
Sat Feb 17, 2018 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO forecast
Replies: 26
Views: 2913

Re: GMO forecast

Thanks for tracking that, Robert - fascinating stuff! For anyone who couldn't get the link to work ... here's the most recent I could find: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/images/91bcbdf4c8cec3f01a91cfa33cd46ba3a69d238e.png Glad to see my small cash, moderate emerging markets (and 50% overall in...
by Noobvestor
Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Short treasuries or short term bond index fund?
Replies: 13
Views: 1195

Re: Short treasuries or short term bond index fund?

I'm going to try and parse this a bit. Hello all, Hello, and welcome to the forum! Given the fact that the fed is going to raise interest rates through the year, I'm trying to figure out for my short term bond allocation in my portfolio This knowledge is priced into the market. No sense in shortenin...
by Noobvestor
Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Treasury Bond Fund/ETF for Taxable Accounts
Replies: 17
Views: 2526

Re: Best Treasury Bond Fund/ETF for Taxable Accounts

FWIW, I just had to make this decision, and went with VSIGX over VFIUX (I prefer to stick to Vanguard funds, so those were the options). I decided the lower expense ratio, simplicity of indexing, and vague possible benefits of an ETF share class made it a potentially better choice.
by Noobvestor
Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which book for an 18 year old who is asking about investing?
Replies: 45
Views: 3267

Re: Which book for an 18 year old who is asking about investing?

The Coffeehouse Investor: How to Build Wealth, Ignore Wall Street, and Get On with Your Life by Bill Schultheis is a good starting point.

I agree with others that the Boglehead's Guide is great, and there's free stuff online, but a book has a different heft to it somehow.
by Noobvestor
Fri Feb 16, 2018 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I bonds instead of Total bond in a 3-fund portfolio?
Replies: 9
Views: 1668

Re: I bonds instead of Total bond in a 3-fund portfolio?

I think I Bonds are great, and hold I Bonds myself (along with EE, TIPS and Treasuries). I think using them in a 3-fund would be fine. That said, some potential downsides you might consider: 1) If you're picking I Bonds over putting money in tax-advantaged space, you could lose out on tax-advantaged...
by Noobvestor
Thu Feb 15, 2018 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me understand bonds
Replies: 3
Views: 485

Re: Help me understand bonds

There are diminishing returns as you approach 100% stocks - diversification is the only free lunch. Check out this link from Vanguard, and decide if the risk was worth what you got historically for going beyond around 70% or 80% stocks: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/saving-investing/mode...
by Noobvestor
Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Treasury Bond Fund/ETF for Taxable Accounts
Replies: 17
Views: 2526

Re: Best Treasury Bond Fund/ETF for Taxable Accounts

Well this is fascinating. I didn't even realize there were two different intermediate-term Treasury funds at Vanguard! I also concur that the active management of VFIUX could give that fund better returns, but the capital gains that the fund managers create seem to make that fund less suitable for a...
by Noobvestor
Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Deciding Between Treasuries and Munis in Taxable
Replies: 15
Views: 1742

Re: Deciding Between Treasuries and Munis in Taxable

For 10 basis points, take the Treasuries. Municipal bonds are almost always safe, but Treasuries have substantially lower credit risk. That's worth paying a little extra for. If you were really itching to save those 10 bps, you could probably build your own Treasury latter and not have to pay the f...
by Noobvestor
Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Deciding Between Treasuries and Munis in Taxable
Replies: 15
Views: 1742

Re: Deciding Between Treasuries and Munis in Taxable

Thank you all so much for your insights and opinions! So glad (as always) to have folks on this forum to help with things like this. I am still thinking about where to set the spread rule (for munis vs. Treasuries in the future), but definitely by .1%, and maybe as high as .5% makes sense. If you ca...
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Did you learn anything from the market correction?
Replies: 160
Views: 12712

Re: Did you learn anything from the market correction?

I got spooked at the returns of Dec 2017 and Jan 2018, and rebalanced (stocks to bonds) a few times before rebalancing bands were hit. It worked out. Was thinking I should maybe swap back a bit last week, then forgot, but it's fine - I'm still basically right on my target allocation. So I've been wi...
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Deciding Between Treasuries and Munis in Taxable
Replies: 15
Views: 1742

Re: Deciding Between Treasuries and Munis in Taxable

It's a no brainer. Treasuries for the win. The yield is good enough, and I want that "flight to safety" if the stock market really falls. For me, as long as the after-tax yield on Treasuries is within 1% of what I could get from CDs or munis, I always go with the Treasuries. Of course, I followed H...
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Deciding Between Treasuries and Munis in Taxable
Replies: 15
Views: 1742

Deciding Between Treasuries and Munis in Taxable

My IPS calls for 50/50 TIPS/Treasuries on the bond side, but with flexibility for optimizing around taxes.* For various reasons, about half my bond allocation is in taxable. Right now, I have Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax Exempt in taxable and Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities in tax-deferred...
by Noobvestor
Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does one emotionally keep it together during market swings?
Replies: 111
Views: 8976

Re: How does one emotionally keep it together during market swings?

Market is up: 'yay, my equity-heavy portfolio is growing!'

Market is down: 'yay, I can rebalance from bonds, and buy more equities at a discount!'

Basically, cultivate an attitude that sees silver linings in both ups and downs.
by Noobvestor
Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how did you determine your risk tolerance?
Replies: 138
Views: 8305

Re: how did you determine your risk tolerance?

thank you for all the responses so far. And how much do you have in the market, relatively speaking? my checkings account has an average cash balance of $500. everything else is invested. my current portfolio size is 65x my monthly expenses. however, in a worst case scenario where stocks crash 50%,...
by Noobvestor
Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how did you determine your risk tolerance?
Replies: 138
Views: 8305

Re: how did you determine your risk tolerance?

A couple of things to consider and ways of looking at it: This is (so far) a pretty minor correction, and feels like an exciting buying opportunity. But what about a 30% crash? 50%? And how much do you have in the market, relatively speaking? The 08/09 crash didn't bother me because I didn't have a ...
by Noobvestor
Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlation Lessons (and a question)
Replies: 3
Views: 396

Re: Correlation Lessons (and a question)

Some prefer Total Bond for having a bit more yield and diversification, but in flights to safety during equities crashes, Treasuries do tend to perform best, and intermediate is often a favorite (less inflation/rate risk than long bonds). Here's a good thread on that from Robert T: https://www.bogle...
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1434973

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I have a feeling Buffett and Bogle have been right all along. There is no need for international in the portfolio. The total international index is falling more than US market. So what is the point of having international in your portfolio? No benefit in having international when the market is goin...
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1434973

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

First it's great that this thread has been running since 2011... Hope to check back in a year or 10 on it. I'm feeling like current horror sequel is "International Stocks in Freefall Too* I was thinking along the lines of @parsi1 's post, about the arguable value of international. As of late, there...
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing
Replies: 71
Views: 4227

Re: Market Timing

It is generally held that you cannot beat the market by timing it. Based on my studies, this appears to be true. Congrats! Good thing to realize. That being said, Uh oh. it seems to me that market timing (using a double moving average cross-over system) is worthwhile on a risk-adjusted basis. Yawn....