Search found 1973 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jul 22, 2018 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can factor investing kill off the hedge fund?
Replies: 10
Views: 1221

Re: Can factor investing kill off the hedge fund?

Can't get to article, but it's an interesting question. Another interesting question: Can the increasing popularity of factor investing kill off the very premiums it seeks? The value factor for example was first described by Fama and French in 1992, the same year that Vanguard introduced it's Value ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Titans of Junk: Behind the Debt Binge That Now Threatens Markets [Bloomberg article]
Replies: 14
Views: 2415

Re: Titans of Junk: Behind the Debt Binge That Now Threatens Markets [Bloomberg article]

I don't think there will be serious trouble in the corporate bond market until we have a recession. As Buffett has said, when the economic tide goes out, you find out who's not wearing a swimsuit. A lot of high-yield debt has been issued by weaker/more leveraged companies over the past 9 years. If t...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 13, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does tilting towards shorter-term bonds make sense?
Replies: 15
Views: 1882

Re: Does tilting towards shorter-term bonds make sense?

I shortened the average duration of my bond portfolio considerably a bit more than a year ago. At the time both rates and inflation were rising slowly but steadily and expected to continue doing so, a situation that penalizes longer duration. That was anticipated but you're never sure it's going to ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMMXX and inflation/interest rates
Replies: 7
Views: 1115

Re: VMMXX and inflation/interest rates

MMF do a better job of keeping up with inflation/interest rates than do longer term bonds during environments of rising inflation and rising rates. MMF tend not to produce positive real returns during these periods but rather to suffer less in real inflation adjusted terms than do longer term bonds....
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 19625

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

Rick wrote: The risks are 1) rising interest rates compete with stocks 2) robust earnings growth doesn’t continue as forecast 3) the risk of a more subdued forecast for 2020 and beyond. Taking all this into consideration, even though earnings forecasts are higher in the short-run, stock return fore...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 9357

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

SimpleGift wrote: 1) 100% nominal bonds is not a safe portfolio allocation for any long-term investor. Allocating 25%-40% to stocks would likely help preserve real capital values over long holding periods, especially with periodic withdrawals. 2) Allocations to TIPS, short-term bonds and cash would...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 09, 2018 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Your Retirement Portfolio All-Weather?
Replies: 7
Views: 1396

Is Your Retirement Portfolio All-Weather?

Morningstar article by Christine Benz on 5 potential risks to prepare for before they happen. The later stages of a long bull market is likely a good time to take a look at your portfolio to decide whether you and it are prepared for the potential risks the future may hold for us going forward. http...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 09, 2018 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Capping Emergency Fund
Replies: 53
Views: 5085

Re: Capping Emergency Fund

My emergency fund, Vanguard's Prime MMF, covers between 2 and 3 years of my full living expenses, longer than most because I have an equity dominated portfolio (66/34) even though I'm retired. This came in very handy during the market crash of 2007-9, which I survived without selling a single share ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison
Replies: 66
Views: 6030

Re: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison

siamond wrote: My overall feedback to the OP is that, by overly focusing on a few cherry-picked starting points, one can end up with very flawed conclusions about their own strategy for the future. 1+ Excellent point, siamond. Great discussion also. Graphs, like statistics, if tortured sufficiently...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 06, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trend reversals?
Replies: 2
Views: 351

Trend reversals?

This is a piece from Charles Schwab on trends which have been persistent for years and which may have reached the extreme levels that have been historically associated with trend reversal. The trends of growth outperforming value, US outperforming INTL, and SC outperforming LC might reverse going fo...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 06, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr -3 mo. Yield spread now at 0.98%
Replies: 2
Views: 526

Re: 30 yr -3 mo. Yield spread now at 0.98%

There seems to be an immense demand for long term TIPS which is why the yield is so low. Looks like a lot of investors/financial firms are doing long term liability matching portfolio planning in inflation adjusted dollars. Also looks like a lot of investors/firms are not optimistic about long term ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jul 05, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000
Replies: 48
Views: 6944

Re: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000

nedsaid wrote; Mr. Bogle, were he to post under a pseudonym, would likely be hooted out of the forum that bears his name. He is not as doctrinaire as we suppose. He has a flexible mind, thinks aloud, floats ideas, and speaks his mind. I will say that over his lifetime that his underlying philosophy...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 04, 2018 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you tilt toward Small Cap Value, how much do you tilt?
Replies: 38
Views: 2965

Re: If you tilt toward Small Cap Value, how much do you tilt?

US: 75% TSM, 25% SCV (PRFZ) INTL: 25% LCV, 25% LCB, 50% SCV I do not believe that factor approaches in the highly efficient and professionally dominated US LC space are likely to produce higher risk-adjusted returns than VOO or VTI. So I use cap-weighted indexes for LC exposure in the US and to a le...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 04, 2018 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: What to Consider When Picking Multifactor ETFs
Replies: 83
Views: 5744

Re: Morningstar: What to Consider When Picking Multifactor ETFs

The Morningstar article points out the theoretical advantages of a multi-factor approach and mentions its 2 favorite ETFs which combine a good approach with low costs, GSLC and LRGF. According to Morningstar graphs, neither of these ETFs has departed significantly during their approximately 3 year l...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 04, 2018 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Switch to LT bonds in this falling rate environment?
Replies: 44
Views: 3386

Re: Switch to LT bonds in this falling rate environment?

It is currently expected that the FED will hike short term rates 2 more times this year and perhaps 2 - 3 times next year. That means short term rates are very likely to rise in the near term. Long term rates are very hard to predict but the yield curve is expected to flatten further if these expect...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 03, 2018 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Premium Is 5th Biggest In History
Replies: 18
Views: 2285

Re: Small Cap Premium Is 5th Biggest In History

A good reason IMO to own both small and large caps. Alternating periods of outperformance produce diversification benefit with or without increased risk adjusted long term returns.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 03, 2018 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"
Replies: 145
Views: 12773

Re: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"

I do not believe there will be a shortage of buyers for US. government debt anytime in the foreseeable future. A more significant potential problem is rising interest rates which will increase finance costs for our massive levels of debt as that debt is rolled over as lower yielding bonds increasing...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tariffs/Inflation/Rates
Replies: 24
Views: 1896

Re: Tariffs/Inflation/Rates

Tariffs tend to increase inflation (imported goods more expensive) and to decrease GDP growth. That combo, if it gets out of hand, poses a potential risk of stagflation. Both inflation rates and interest rates are currently in a rising cycle although it is not clear when this cycle will end. There a...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jul 01, 2018 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Hedge funds basically scams?
Replies: 36
Views: 3362

Re: Are Hedge funds basically scams?

nisi wrote: "Scam" is a harsh word. Eugene Fama famously said of hedge funds, "If you want to invest in something where they steal your money and don’t tell you what they’re doing, be my guest." Does that equate to "scam?" No. However, the fact that people invest trillions of dollars in hedge funds...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jul 01, 2018 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Advisers Add $$$ Value?
Replies: 71
Views: 6059

Re: Do Advisers Add $$$ Value?

It's hard to paint this picture with a broad brush, stating categorically that all investors should have an advisor or that all investors should not have an advisor. Those whose investment decisions are driven by wide emotional swings and therefore likely to sell at the bottom or buy at the top migh...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 30, 2018 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lessons from Cliff Asness
Replies: 2
Views: 812

Re: Lessons from Cliff Asness

I agree with Mr. Asness. Charles Schwab did a study some years ago trying to define which segment of their clients got the best long term investing results. They were hoping it would shed light on many of the questions we argue about all the time--simple index versus factor, bond versus stock, activ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 30, 2018 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Levering a portfolio to a 60/40 equivalent
Replies: 15
Views: 2083

Re: Levering a portfolio to a 60/40 equivalent

grok87 wrote: You are backtesting against a period starting in the mid 80s when bond yields have massively declined. You should also backtest against a period of rising interest rates like from the 60s through 1981. If stocks and bonds both lose money at the same time then a leveraged portfolio lik...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Toss Your Expectations
Replies: 36
Views: 4896

Re: Larry Swedroe: Toss Your Expectations

It is true that CAPE isn't a reliable predictor of future market returns. There is a wide dispersion of results in long term (10 yr+) results from almost any CAPE level which is not at historical extremes. At historical extremes (43 in 2000, 6.6 in 1982, Japan 95 in 1999) it is highly predictive of ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 27, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Geopolitical events [Impact of recent trade policy decisions on the market]
Replies: 22
Views: 2401

Re: Geopolitical events [Impact of recent trade policy decisions on the market]

SimpleGift wrote: One quick historical observation from the chart upthread: When the last period of protectionism started in the 1930s, world trade (total imports and exports) was only about 20% of global GDP. Today, when world trade is nearly 60% of global GDP, it's likely that increased protectio...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 24, 2018 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Liability Matching Portfolios 20% failure rate?
Replies: 19
Views: 1540

Liability Matching Portfolios 20% failure rate?

According to this article, posted by galeno on the Bogleheads Unite category of Morningstar Forums, the LMP as recommended by Bernstein has about a 20% failure rate over the long haul. Something to think about if you're putting all your eggs in LMP basket. The article is based on a WSJ piece that lo...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 23, 2018 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gulf between MOM research and MOM fund results
Replies: 3
Views: 692

Gulf between MOM research and MOM fund results

The following quote is from Rob Arnott who looked at fund results from 1990 to 2016 of all mutual funds who called themselves momentum funds. Arnott looks at both price momentum, 1st method, and earnings momentum, 2nd method. His results are interesting. Direct quote from article: https://www.adviso...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 23, 2018 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You
Replies: 126
Views: 9768

Re: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You

Robert T wrote: My portfolio has held up fairly well with higher returns over the last 15, 10, 5, and 3 year periods. This is despite views that the small cap premium is dead and the value premium is following suit. I personally believe that Robert T is a highly accomplished factor investor who aft...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 23, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR throws a bit of shade at CAPE
Replies: 19
Views: 2224

Re: AQR throws a bit of shade at CAPE

grok87 wrote: I’d be cautious in accepting aqr’s argument that the small cap premium does not exist. I admit I haven’t read the paper but I also haven’t seen fama French publish a retraction of their 3 factor paper either. Cliff Asness categorically states in the cited article that the small premiu...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 22, 2018 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR throws a bit of shade at CAPE
Replies: 19
Views: 2224

Re: AQR throws a bit of shade at CAPE

Cliff Asness makes another cogent and, for some of us, surprising revelation in the paper quoted above by matjen. The size effect paper is the easier one to discuss in a short blog. There isn’t one. That is, there isn’t a pure size effect (there is a paper). In fact, there never was a size effect. A...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 21, 2018 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Steep rise in "Old Age Dependency Ratio"
Replies: 15
Views: 2149

Re: Steep rise in "Old Age Dependency Ratio"

Great post, thx1138, thanks for posting. A sobering note for those who believe future US and DM equity returns are going to be at long term levels of real return. Demography plus debt does not equal destiny but they certainly influence it.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 21, 2018 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR throws a bit of shade at CAPE
Replies: 19
Views: 2224

Re: AQR throws a bit of shade at CAPE

Unfortunately, being “sure” isn’t a major feature of our business and anyone looking for it is going to have to learn to live with disappointment. 1+ Totally agree with Taylor on how wise and accurate Asness's statement is. In spite of some of the brightest, most knowledgeable experts carefully exa...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor tilts -- only for small caps?
Replies: 7
Views: 827

Re: Factor tilts -- only for small caps?

vineviz wrote; Both value and quality factors definitely show return premia among larger stocks, not just among small stocks. Is that what you're asking? True according to theory based on long term backtesting. It is important however to realize that long term means really long term. Since 2002, mo...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: McKinsey: Rising corporate debt: Peril or promise?
Replies: 6
Views: 863

Re: McKinsey: Rising corporate debt: Peril or promise?

It is not entirely clear whether rising debt will be peril or promise in the long run, but high corporate debt levels do increase risk of default in the rapidly expanded corporate bond markets. In recent years many investors, frustrated by persistently low interest rates, flocked to high yield bonds...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 18, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debt Song Not a Pretty Tune
Replies: 5
Views: 1670

Debt Song Not a Pretty Tune

Article from Liz Sonders at Charles Schwab
https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/ ... retty-tune

I'm sure many will pass this off as inconsequential, but I for one share Liz's long term concerns. Comments?

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 18, 2018 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mean Reversion in Long-Term Stock Returns?
Replies: 25
Views: 2282

Re: Mean Reversion in Long-Term Stock Returns?

CurlyDave wrote: Currently Atlanta FED is forecasting 4.8% for 2Q 2018. https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx New York FED is only forecasting 2.98%. https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast These are 2Q estimates. The FED Open Market Committee estimates for the whole of 20...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect
Replies: 36
Views: 3807

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect

Robert T wrote: 1982-2018: Annualized return 11.8% = Large caps (Largest 30%) 11.6% = Small caps (Smallest 30%) Factor investing theory suggests that over sufficiently long periods of time, factors outperform beta consistently and reliably. Otherwise why hold onto a factor portfolio? The above is 3...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mechanisms for disappearance of factor premia -- how does it work for momentum?
Replies: 14
Views: 922

Re: Mechanisms for disappearance of factor premia -- how does it work for momentum?

As grok87 points out MOM long/short portfolios can be lethal to portfolio value quickly when a bear market suddenly reverses. In 2009, the FF MOM factor lost 82.7% of its value in 12 months. It can take quite a long time to recover when your portfolio is only worth 17.3% of its value 12 months ago. ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 16, 2018 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mean Reversion in Long-Term Stock Returns?
Replies: 25
Views: 2282

Re: Mean Reversion in Long-Term Stock Returns?

CurlyDave wrote: A. US GDP growth rates are increasing -- this means I should push my AA toward higher equity percentages. It also means that the "doom and gloom" about real equity returns over the next decade might be wrong. Actually over the last decade and in fact since 2000, US GDP growth has s...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Best Way to use Factor ETFs
Replies: 1
Views: 404

The Best Way to use Factor ETFs

The following is an interview from Morningstar between Christine Benz and Ben Johnson discussing both single factor ETFs and multi-factor ETFs and comparing those approaches to a broadly based cap weighted index fund like TSM. It seems to me that they lean toward multi-factor rather than single fact...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 15, 2018 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - Newsletters & Research Reports
Replies: 2
Views: 451

Re: Vanguard - Newsletters & Research Reports

I occasionally read their research reports and in general I think they are helpful.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab's market predictions next 10 years
Replies: 20
Views: 2936

Re: Schwab's market predictions next 10 years

From Larry's article, "Assessing Expected Returns" And finally, we’ll look at research by Cliff Asness of AQR Capital. In a November 2012 paper, “An Old Friend: The Stock Market’s Shiller PE,” Asness found that 10-year forward average real returns fall nearly monotonically as starting CAPE 10 P/E r...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AlphaArchitect - Commodities for the Long Run
Replies: 10
Views: 872

Re: AlphaArchitect - Commodities for the Long Run

I do not mean to paint the entire financial industry with one brush although sometimes I slip into that. I believe Cliff Asness for example is honest, highly intelligent, well-meaning and tries his best through solidly grounded high quality research and vast knowledge to deliver his investors with o...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AlphaArchitect - Commodities for the Long Run
Replies: 10
Views: 872

Re: AlphaArchitect - Commodities for the Long Run

matjen wrote: I’m disappointed in you since the underlying paper is written by people affiliated with AQR. If you had bothered to read that of course. You missed a golden opportunity to cast aspersions on their motives as well. I admit I didn't read the article. When I see a suggestion or even a hi...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 11, 2018 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multi-Asset vs. Simple Portfolio, 1970-2017
Replies: 37
Views: 3274

Re: Multi-Asset vs. Simple Portfolio, 1970-2017

aj76er wrote: What were the costs of buying international and small cap stocks over those time periods? And are those being reflected in these types of analyses? Note that cost includes E/R costs, bid-ask spreads, taxes, etc... I don't have data in front of me, but my suspicion is that recency bias...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 11, 2018 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AlphaArchitect - Commodities for the Long Run
Replies: 10
Views: 872

Re: AlphaArchitect - Commodities for the Long Run

How odd that a firm that markets commodity exposure thinks its attractive. Long term returns of commodities cluster around zero real. Increased diversification and lower portfolio volatility come at a price, no free lunch. AlphaArchitect suggests they have the secret sauce for Sharpe ratio success i...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 11, 2018 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multi-Asset vs. Simple Portfolio, 1970-2017
Replies: 37
Views: 3274

Re: Multi-Asset vs. Simple Portfolio, 1970-2017

Random Walker wrote: How do you feel about correlations? I realize correlations change over time, but nonetheless feel that anything less than a correlation of 1 between portfolio components is beneficial. So I tend to err on the side of diversification across factors, styles, asset classes. I beli...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 10, 2018 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multi-Asset vs. Simple Portfolio, 1970-2017
Replies: 37
Views: 3274

Re: Multi-Asset vs. Simple Portfolio, 1970-2017

nisi wrote: I know this is heresy, because if you say "well, the difference between a CAGR of 9.88% and one of 9.45% isn't much," someone is bound to say "it's huge of you compound it out for 30 years." Well, it would be if you knew those numbers were correct in the first place (and wouldn't flip a...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 09, 2018 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMMXX (Vanguard Prime MM) risks
Replies: 71
Views: 10570

Re: VMMXX (Vanguard Prime MM) risks

pascalwager wrote: I don't understand why Vanguard would produce money market funds meant to hold cash that are not riskless and don't understand why anyone would want to place their cash in such funds. I guess Vanguard is simply competing with the banks and Treasury Direct for it's share of our ca...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 08, 2018 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman and Small Cap Value
Replies: 140
Views: 17042

Re: Paul Merriman and Small Cap Value

Just my 2 cents worth. If we're talking about adding risk to an equity portfolio to increase long term expected returns, I personally believe that at the present time both EM and INTL, including small cap exposure in those areas, are good choices, worthy of inclusion in the portfolio. US has bested ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 08, 2018 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factors From Scratch
Replies: 11
Views: 1056

Re: Factors From Scratch

From the conclusion: Of course, the future is far more interesting and important than the past. To what degree can we be confident that these forms of “edge” will persist? It 's impossible to say with certainty. All we can do is go off of the evidence, which in this case provides strong support for ...