Search found 35481 matches

by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 02, 2018 5:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?
Replies: 60
Views: 3973

Re: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?

With yesterday's drop of about 4%, the FTSE MIB is even cheaper now, so that the Italian market has now one of the lowest valuations of the world (as measured by CAPE or other metrics). I am wondering whether it is a bargain, or whether things are likely to still get much worse? Even if Italy were ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 02, 2018 5:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why TIPS only for unexpected inflation?
Replies: 27
Views: 2552

Re: Why tips only for unexpected inflation?

Is the inflation protection any different between the shorter- and longer-term bond funds? Or is the only difference related to interest rates? The majority of inflation protection in a TIPS bond comes through the final (CPI adjusted from $100) maturity amount. Thus (I think) in principle short ter...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?
Replies: 71
Views: 6106

Re: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?

Why is deflation a problem for Japan, they appear to have excellent quality of life Less than 2 weeks off a year and death due to overwork a common syndrome in middle aged men? Homes the size of postage stamps? Xenophobia towards foreign immigrants? Real homelessness (for the first time)? Given the...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's Making the Case for Gold
Replies: 111
Views: 7725

Re: Barron's Making the Case for Gold

Is 10% gold really going to help a mostly stock portfolio when the next disaster hits? I stay away from these little 5-10% bets because they don’t make much difference other than add complexity. As a matter of fact, from 1987 to 2017 it did. https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2017-10-10/is...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's Making the Case for Gold
Replies: 111
Views: 7725

Re: Barron's Making the Case for Gold

There's always a case for gold. In fact, it should form the core of everyone's portfolio as a form of universal money -- just in case. 10% or so core holding in gold should be at the heart of any investor's assets. Why not bitcoin? /sarcasm And there is the bull case. The "craziness" about money ha...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?
Replies: 60
Views: 3973

Re: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?

The crazy irony is that if either the Europeans relented and let Italy run its higher deficit OR Italy managed a swift exit from the Euro (and it would have to be swift) then this could be very good news for the Italian stock market and the Italian economy. It's the uncertainty and the fear of chao...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?
Replies: 60
Views: 3973

Re: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?

The crazy irony is that if either the Europeans relented and let Italy run its higher deficit OR Italy managed a swift exit from the Euro (and it would have to be swift) then this could be very good news for the Italian stock market and the Italian economy. It's the uncertainty and the fear of chao...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why TIPS only for unexpected inflation?
Replies: 27
Views: 2552

Re: Why tips only for unexpected inflation?

So does this mean that if inflation unexpectedly drops, the NAV of tips will go down? Kind of the opposite of nominal bonds, where the NAV will go up if interest rates go down? Or will the NAV go up if inflation drops? During the 2008 recession, when inflation dropped, the NAV of TIPS went down a l...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why TIPS only for unexpected inflation?
Replies: 27
Views: 2552

Re: Why tips only for unexpected inflation?

So does this mean that if inflation unexpectedly drops, the NAV of tips will go down? Kind of the opposite of nominal bonds, where the NAV will go up if interest rates go down? Or will the NAV go up if inflation drops? During the 2008 recession, when inflation dropped, the NAV of TIPS went down a l...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 02, 2018 3:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: General Electric
Replies: 73
Views: 9564

Re: General Electric

Son just got an on campus interview with GE. I warned him....they may not be able to pay you. It's hard to imagine that GE will somehow run out of funds. Unless the pension and environmental liabilities (and legacy financial services liabilities) prove to be so huge that they use Chapter 11 strateg...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 02, 2018 2:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?
Replies: 71
Views: 6106

Re: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?

Our money supply is not a "free market". It is heavily managed, and it's managed with a mandate to maximize employment, stabilize prices , and moderate long-term interest rates . Those are indeed the statutory objectives of the Federal Reserve System, as mandated by Congress which created the Fed. ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 02, 2018 2:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will size and value factor premia still exist in 20-30 years?
Replies: 13
Views: 1139

Re: Will size and value factor premia still exist in 20-30 years?

Jared Kizer wrote, in 2015, in "A Review of Equity Factor Premia": 6. Any transparent strategy, which applies to everything outlined in this piece, is capable of extended periods of underperformance. There is nothing that preordains these strategies to work over any period of any length. Investors ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 01, 2018 10:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pension plan choice of annuity or cash payout
Replies: 27
Views: 2816

Re: Pension plan choice of annuity or cash payout

There has been a lot of discussion here about safe withdrawal rates, there was a Trinity study that set the rate at 4%, as I recall. Good point about low interest rates, Boglehead thinking has been that 3% might be more realistic and sustainable. In essence you can get c. 0.8% on a long TIPS bond? ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 01, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?
Replies: 60
Views: 3973

Re: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?

The crazy irony is that if either the Europeans relented and let Italy run its higher deficit OR Italy managed a swift exit from the Euro (and it would have to be swift) then this could be very good news for the Italian stock market and the Italian economy. It's the uncertainty and the fear of chaos...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 01, 2018 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?
Replies: 60
Views: 3973

Re: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?

There is a weird parallel currency scheme being discussed involving BOTs (mini-Treasury notes, Buoni Ordinari del Tesoro) which are securitized tax credits. The idea is that the government would start paying its domestic bills using these. During the Argentina crisis in 2002 state governments (whic...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 01, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?
Replies: 60
Views: 3973

Re: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?

The economic and financial chaos would be so extreme as to put the whole system under threat. Everyone with an account at an Italian bank would be trying to move their money to a French or German bank which would remain denominated in Euros. Who then bails out the Italian banking system? I think th...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 01, 2018 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: General Electric
Replies: 73
Views: 9564

Re: General Electric

Last week GE disclosed that the vaunted power division's turbines have major flaws. GE's CEO told the division employees via video message to "keep your chin up." Today the CEO was fired. The power sector has been under the gun for a while. Not just GE. Turbine business has been shrinking. They are...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 01, 2018 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?
Replies: 60
Views: 3973

Re: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?

Do I feel the need to rush out and invest in these companies? ENI ENI Energy Do I want a concentrated bet on oil? Is it better than Exxon, BP, or Shell? Or Pemex? Or Petrochina? ENEL ENEL Utilities I don't overweight utilities in the rest of the world, not sure why I want to here... ISP INTESA SANP...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 01, 2018 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?
Replies: 60
Views: 3973

Re: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?

This is an interesting graph on the impact on Italian real wages when switching from the lira to the euro: https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2018/5/25/191022-15272746359373407.png So tying back to the main topic: If Italy were to leave the euro, what does that do to your investment? Thanks, i...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 01, 2018 7:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pension plan choice of annuity or cash payout
Replies: 27
Views: 2816

Re: Pension plan choice of annuity or cash payout

My general advice is to take the annuity over the cash payout. This is general advice but each individual situation needs to be evaluated. For example, if your family tends to die early, I would lean towards the cash. But in most situations, probably 80% of the time, people in this situation should...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 01, 2018 4:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Health insurance in Canada for An American Visitor
Replies: 19
Views: 1277

Re: Health insurance in Canada for An American Visitor

My GF lives in Alberta so she buys insurance before coming to the US. Until she mentioned it, I was even aware that US insurance (especially with a high deductible) might not cover me. RBC insurance wants $75 for 4 days. My Boglehead side says it's not worth the money. But if something should happe...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 01, 2018 4:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.
Replies: 119
Views: 13824

Re: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.

... Hedge fund managers are not short of ego. Success is never the result of "good luck" it is skill. Failure is never the result of personal bad decisions, but of forces outside the control of the executive ... There would seem to be an internal conflict with those two aspects ;) As far as I can t...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 01, 2018 3:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Getting quotes for geothermal
Replies: 33
Views: 2329

Re: Getting quotes for geothermal

Update: The company I felt best about gave me a quote of $135k, less $40.6k (federal tax credit) less $10k (MA Clean Energy Rebate) less $11k (estimated MA DOER credits). We are eligible for $25k MA heat loan (7 years at 0% interest). We are responsible for removing oil, oil tank (above ground), an...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 01, 2018 3:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto-Currency
Replies: 29
Views: 3237

Re: Crypto-Currency

Bull Markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die in euphoria. Of all the folksy wisdom that relates to markets, that quip above has been for me one that's consistent. Whether it was the tech boom of the 90s, the real estate boom of the mid 2000s, or the cryptocur...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 01, 2018 2:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on short term investments in def comp account
Replies: 9
Views: 692

Re: Advice on short term investments in def comp account

I've got ~100K in a deferred comp account that will start paying out soon. I will start receiving taxable income in October, but payouts substantially increase in January 2020 through January 2022, when last payment is scheduled. Since these funds are scheduled to be paid out in next 3+ years, I'd ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 01, 2018 2:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.
Replies: 119
Views: 13824

Re: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.

Don't worry, Eddie the Vampire will continue sucking it dry while whining about how hard it is until it's not even a penny stock. There really should be no 5 year limitation on suing these hedge funds that purposely load companies up with debt to pay themselves with every intention of bankrupting t...
by Valuethinker
Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE-Based Robert Shiller Bought Italy and Spain Indexes in 2015
Replies: 62
Views: 2531

Re: CAPE-Based Robert Shiller Bought Italy and Spain Indexes in 2015

I would quibble with how they are planning to spend the money not the desire to try to do something when the conventional nostrums have failed. However that does not mean the key decision makers in the Eurozone will accept that strategy. And the Italian banking system really does worry me. Without ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE-Based Robert Shiller Bought Italy and Spain Indexes in 2015
Replies: 62
Views: 2531

Re: CAPE-Based Robert Shiller Bought Italy and Spain Indexes in 2015

I doubt he predicted those markets were a better bet over three years. Stock-market returns over one year will be close to random, over three years not much less so. Even over the 10 to 30 year periods that are more appropriate for this kind of prediction, they will be a lot of noise overlaying the...
by Valuethinker
Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE-Based Robert Shiller Bought Italy and Spain Indexes in 2015
Replies: 62
Views: 2531

Re: CAPE-Based Robert Shiller Bought Italy and Spain Indexes in 2015

I don't make investment decisions based on valuations. Too much noise to be useful. To be fair to Shiller, he emphasizes the studies that show valuations to have some preditictive power over the long term. A few years is not long enough to evaluate the accuracy of his country picks. Among other que...
by Valuethinker
Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE-Based Robert Shiller Bought Italy and Spain Indexes in 2015
Replies: 62
Views: 2531

Re: CAPE-Based Robert Shiller Bought Italy and Spain Indexes in 2015

Thank you for posting, very interesting :happy I was precisely wondering about Shiller when I wrote my thread on Italy yesterday. Catch the falling knife. It is very easy to be too early. The low CAPE10 (price/ book effectively) might well be the result of the valuation of financials - the market i...
by Valuethinker
Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto-Currency
Replies: 29
Views: 3237

Re: Crypto-Currency

Not too many crypto threads in a few months LOL. that aspect of BH that tracks the latest investment fad is confusing and depressing BUT I understand from those that follow other investment forums that BH is actually a "dampening down" of that - lots of wise heads and wise words. I think crypto was...
by Valuethinker
Sun Sep 30, 2018 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto-Currency
Replies: 29
Views: 3237

Re: Crypto-Currency

Bull Markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die in euphoria. Of all the folksy wisdom that relates to markets, that quip above has been for me one that's consistent. Whether it was the tech boom of the 90s, the real estate boom of the mid 2000s, or the cryptocur...
by Valuethinker
Sun Sep 30, 2018 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE-Based Robert Shiller Bought Italy and Spain Indexes in 2015
Replies: 62
Views: 2531

Re: CAPE-Based Robert Shiller Bought Italy and Spain Indexes in 2015

Shiller is a Nobel laureate who correctly called the dot bomb and the housing bubble. I bet people made fun of him then, too. IIRC, he called a lot of other market crashes that never materialized as well. The broken clock is right twice a day. I was going to post the exact same thing! Do you recall...
by Valuethinker
Sun Sep 30, 2018 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: "So much for the bond bubble"
Replies: 18
Views: 2776

Re: Rekenthaler: "So much for the bond bubble"

A worst-case scenario for the bond market is not the US in 1994. It is Russia in 1998, Japan in the 1940s, Germany in the 1920s, and many other examples throughout history. The US is approaching WW2 levels of debt-to-GDP with expansionary fiscal policy at the top of the business cycle. The financia...
by Valuethinker
Sun Sep 30, 2018 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE-Based Robert Shiller Bought Italy and Spain Indexes in 2015
Replies: 62
Views: 2531

Re: CAPE-Based Robert Shiller Bought Italy and Spain Indexes in 2015

Shiller is a Nobel laureate who correctly called the dot bomb and the housing bubble. I bet people made fun of him then, too. It is arguable whether he "correctly" called it. Didn't he call it over three years too early? That's a failed trade; anyone who followed that lost money I'm not sure that "...
by Valuethinker
Sun Sep 30, 2018 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE-Based Robert Shiller Bought Italy and Spain Indexes in 2015
Replies: 62
Views: 2531

Re: CAPE-Based Robert Shiller Bought Italy and Spain Indexes in 2015

Shiller is a Nobel laureate who correctly called the dot bomb and the housing bubble. I bet people made fun of him then, too. IIRC, he called a lot of other market crashes that never materialized as well. The broken clock is right twice a day. Which other bubbles do you recall him predicting? He ca...
by Valuethinker
Sat Sep 29, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: PV Solar (Sunpower vs. Panasonic HIT) & To Roof or Not to Re-roof
Replies: 12
Views: 1148

Re: PV Solar (Sunpower vs. Panasonic HIT) & To Roof or Not to Re-roof

Thanks for the reply so far. There is always the thought and option to just replace the east face of my roof upon which PV solar would go. That side is not visible from the street, so it really would not be obvious, especially if I went with another metal shingle such a shake style which is easier ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Sep 29, 2018 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 99% invested in stocks, bond recommendations please?
Replies: 19
Views: 2516

Re: 99% invested in stocks, bond recommendations please?

Second hulburt1 Almost all stocks here too since the 1960’s Prefer ownership investments to loans: Very much depends upon on one’s temperament and ability to live well below one’s means Can you expound on this? Have you been primarily US Stock Market? 80/20 or something like that with 20% Internati...
by Valuethinker
Sat Sep 29, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.
Replies: 119
Views: 13824

Re: Sears, a 125 year old company is now a penny stock.

Keep this in mind whenever anybody starts saying that a portfolio of a few good blue-chip stocks are not risky, if they are stocks in truly great companies, household names, that "aren't going to go away." Because "everybody will always need" refrigerators, sensible clothing, and durable tools. Cha...
by Valuethinker
Sat Sep 29, 2018 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?
Replies: 60
Views: 3973

Re: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?

In the long run, compared to the competition in the developed world, I have a hard time thinking of what Italy's competitive advantage is compared to other rich countries, even in the EU. It's not as productive or rich per capita as the northern European countries, it has negative population growth...
by Valuethinker
Sat Sep 29, 2018 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?
Replies: 60
Views: 3973

Re: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?

With yesterday's drop of about 4%, the FTSE MIB is even cheaper now, so that the Italian market has now one of the lowest valuations of the world (as measured by CAPE or other metrics). I am wondering whether it is a bargain, or whether things are likely to still get much worse? Even if Italy were ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Sep 29, 2018 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?
Replies: 60
Views: 3973

Re: Could things get much worse for the Italian stock market? How?

With yesterday's drop of about 4%, the FTSE MIB is even cheaper now, so that the Italian market has now one of the lowest valuations of the world (as measured by CAPE or other metrics). I am wondering whether it is a bargain, or whether things are likely to still get much worse? Even if Italy were ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Sep 29, 2018 11:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where are the hybrid or fully electric two seater commuting vehicles?
Replies: 44
Views: 1925

Re: Where are the hybrid or fully electric two seater commuting vehicles?

Why is the smallest available electric car a four or five seater when 90% of commuted miles are driven alone? Because people won't buy a tiny car. Ford is giving up on sedans in general, because people want to purchase giant machines. Even small, not tiny, cars fail to sell. Toyota Echo, Chevy Aveo...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is high inflation a good thing while working?
Replies: 40
Views: 2695

Re: Is high inflation a good thing while working?

Remembering the inflation and gas lines of the 70's and listening to my aunt telling me about her 5% mortgage just after I got my 13 7/8% 5 year adjustable mortgage...... I agree with most of what you posted. A couple of points: - in countries with high inflation wages are often reset more often th...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pension vs 401k, help
Replies: 31
Views: 2127

Re: Pension vs 401k, help

My observations and suggestions: (1) Be careful in moving from a state job to corporate life. The mutual-loyalty relationship in corporations between employer and employee that often existed in the past (that your parents probably knew) started dying-off around 25 years ago and is rare today. The s...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Preparing for My First Recession?
Replies: 63
Views: 7251

Re: Preparing for My First Recession?

I am a first-time poster but have lurked here for quite some time. Thought this would be a good place to get advice from folks who may be further along on their financial journey than me. Background: 1. Just turned 30. Recently passed the ~200k mark in investment funds (primarily spread across Roth...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 28, 2018 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Preparing for My First Recession?
Replies: 63
Views: 7251

Re: Preparing for My First Recession?

A bull market is a long period of falling stock prices and general market pessimism. Uhm, isn't that a bear market? And bull markets when stocks are rising? Pretty sure you got these mixed up through your entire post. It is possible. Sometimes I say bonds when I mean stocks. :happy I'll check. ETA,...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 28, 2018 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hyperinflation and holding foreign stocks/bonds
Replies: 28
Views: 2056

Re: Hyperinflation and holding foreign stocks/bonds

Hi, thanks for all the replies - sorry I've only just been able to log in to see them. Is there a specific situation you want to address or is this more of a general question? It's a rather general question - I'm thinking of any inflation that would be sufficient in size to render fixed-income asse...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 28, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hyperinflation and holding foreign stocks/bonds
Replies: 28
Views: 2056

Re: Hyperinflation and holding foreign stocks/bonds

Hi, thanks for all the replies - sorry I've only just been able to log in to see them. Is there a specific situation you want to address or is this more of a general question? It's a rather general question - I'm thinking of any inflation that would be sufficient in size to render fixed-income asse...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 28, 2018 5:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?
Replies: 71
Views: 6106

Re: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?

We could have full employment by paying folks to dig holes and fill them back up, so how and why is the Fed trying to change the employment rate I believe the idea is to use monetary levers to influence those who've saved money to invest it in production requiring labor for things the economy actua...