Search found 36168 matches

by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 27, 2018 4:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worst investing year ever....
Replies: 73
Views: 11298

Re: Worst investing year ever....

I think anyone who went through the Great Depression or 2008 would beg to differ. +1 - 2008-2009 were the worst investing years for me. They were probably the worst investing years for almost everyone since 1973-1974. We are taught to think in real return terms. That thinking was not common in 1973...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 27, 2018 4:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: UK pension considerations for US resident
Replies: 6
Views: 614

Re: UK pension considerations for US resident

She has worked for 25 years in the UK. Has now worked for ~20 years in the US. She will retire in the US. She is 64. What are the considerations for her to claim her well earned UK govt pension @ ~67? We've heard it may affect her US social security? Recommended sites or books which can help? :shar...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 27, 2018 3:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Air heat pump questions (any experts in the community?)
Replies: 24
Views: 1850

Re: Air heat pump questions (any experts in the community?)

The cold weather most certainly has arrived in our neck of the woods. (Southwest Ohio) During the winter we like to keep our house between 68-70 degrees. Currently we have a 3 ton Bryant air heat pump. It is 10 years old and does a great job 9 months out of the year. When the temperature gets below...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 27, 2018 3:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [28 yo French living in Singapore] iShares Bond ETF: Hedged Euro, Hedged USD or Unhedged USD ?
Replies: 43
Views: 2254

Re: [28 yo French living in Singapore] iShares Bond ETF: Hedged Euro, or Hedged USD (accumulating) or USD (distributing)

I think, other than an emergency fund, the idea is to choose the currency that you will retire to and spend in. Unless the currency is particularly unstable such as an emerging market. If you have no idea where you will retire to, probably go unhedged with AGGG? Also the further away you are, the l...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 27, 2018 3:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [28 yo French living in Singapore] iShares Bond ETF: Hedged Euro, Hedged USD or Unhedged USD ?
Replies: 43
Views: 2254

Re: [28 yo French living in Singapore] iShares Bond ETF: AGGG, AGGU or AGGH?

Thanks ValueThinker! Singapore does not tax anything at all: no capital gain, no dividend, no interest. So I guess I'm fine with both accumulating and distributing. In that case, is it totally up to me to choose which method I prefer? Or does one will return a slightly better return than the other?...
by Valuethinker
Tue Nov 27, 2018 3:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worst investing year ever....
Replies: 73
Views: 11298

Re: Worst investing year ever....

Uncorrelated doesn't mean that one will go up if the other goes down, just that there is no relationship. It isn't unusual that both stocks and bonds would be down in the same year. Statistically, one would occasionally expect years similar to this when almost everything seems to move in the same d...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 26, 2018 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Liquid Alt Performance
Replies: 60
Views: 2811

Re: AQR/Liquid Alt Performance

This is a very good post from Cliff Asness: https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/But-What-About-October. Liquid alts were down again in October. Many are disappointed, including me. He makes the point that these liquid alts are market neutral but not a hedge against the market so they correlat...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 26, 2018 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [28 yo French living in Singapore] iShares Bond ETF: Hedged Euro, Hedged USD or Unhedged USD ?
Replies: 43
Views: 2254

Re: [28 yo French living in Singapore] iShares Bond ETF: AGGG, AGGU or AGGH?

Hello Bogleheads! As explained in the subject, I'm a 28 years old French, Single, living and working in Singapore since I'm 24. I have already invested in stocks following all the great advise on the forum/Wiki, but am now looking at investing in one iShares bond ETF over the LSE, but I don't know ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 26, 2018 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you need to invest mostly in stocks to get rich?
Replies: 178
Views: 16996

Re: Do you need to invest mostly in stocks to get rich?

Can anyone point to an investment period for retirement (let's say 40 years) where a lower AA in stocks produced better results (outperformed) than a higher stock AA? Looking back to 1820 over almost 200 years doesn't tell us the distribution. My guess is there are few, if any such periods. Note mo...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 26, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 191
Views: 25173

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Hard to see how one "diversifies" into a money that wasn't really a money. First cash only has present value as option value on falling markets or on current spending. This is also George Soros' criticism of commodity investing - there's no inherent return (we get into the return from contango, tha...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 26, 2018 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you need to invest mostly in stocks to get rich?
Replies: 178
Views: 16996

Re: Do you need to invest mostly in stocks to get rich?

Now we don't know what bonds' performance, interest rates, etc. will be in the future, but the past has very robustly shown that the equity premium is real, consistent, and substantial. Except when they lose 25% in a single day. Or 50% in 12 months. Or 70%+ (real) in 18 months. Or 65% in 20 years. ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 26, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Bond Market vs Intermediate Bonds
Replies: 3
Views: 865

Re: Total Bond Market vs Intermediate Bonds

Although I'm not situated in the USA I was hoping for some advice regarding fixed income allocation. I intend to keep putting money aside while able to safe. Currently I''m 34 years old. I can buy Intermediate Bond ETFs from iShares free of charge through the broker (both US Treasury and EU: German...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 26, 2018 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 191
Views: 25173

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

BTC is theoretically the same way: it is valuable because it is the one that people have heard of and want to 'invest' in. Even as a BTC skeptic, I have to admit that USD isn't all that different in that way: I want USD because that is what everyone I buy stuff from wants. The fact that USD is lega...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 26, 2018 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 191
Views: 25173

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

BTC is theoretically the same way: it is valuable because it is the one that people have heard of and want to 'invest' in. Even as a BTC skeptic, I have to admit that USD isn't all that different in that way: I want USD because that is what everyone I buy stuff from wants. The fact that USD is lega...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 26, 2018 7:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 98829

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

But In fact, international stocks outperform US stocks about half the time. And sometimes dramatically so in relatively short periods. Decency bias has lulled many investors into believing that international stocks usually have lower returns than US stocks, which leads to allocation errors. Ah auto...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 26, 2018 5:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I too risk averse?
Replies: 45
Views: 3361

Re: Am I too risk averse?

OP, you're not "too risk averse". On the contrary, you're taking an insane amount of concentrated risk. A sustained reoccurrence of inflation would totally devastate your portfolio (and your emotions too). Consider that post WW-II, treasury bonds lost some 40% in real value for decades, nearly reco...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 26, 2018 5:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 191
Views: 25173

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

It's an almost perfect bubble, it seems, came, got bubbly, collapsed. No broader effects. Just a transfer of wealth from speculators to insiders. It has broader effects. Nvidia lost half its stock value and the collapse of the cryptocurrency mining chip purchases played a role. This was big for Nvi...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 26, 2018 5:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I too risk averse?
Replies: 45
Views: 3361

Re: Am I too risk averse?

This looks like an allocation fortified against total financial apocalypse like the Great Depression or Japan 1990. If that possibility would make you lose sleep and you deliberately constructed it that way, then it’s fine. If you don’t think that’s plausible and you drifted to conservative investm...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 26, 2018 5:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I too risk averse?
Replies: 45
Views: 3361

Re: Am I too risk averse?

Hi Bogleheads, I’m in my late forties, I have about $3.5M in taxable and my current asset allocation looks like this: 32% Treasury bills 28% Stocks 18% CDs 7% Checking & Savings 5% Money market 5% Municipal bonds 5% TIPS On one hand, I realize it’s a very conservative portfolio, and I definitely do...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 26, 2018 5:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Weight:effect of Individual Stock and EM
Replies: 6
Views: 553

Re: Market Weight:effect of Individual Stock and EM

EM is about 4% of VT. If it tripled in market float, then VT would increase by 8%. When it comes to EM, there’s a huge difference between GDP, market cap and market float. China’s GDP is already #2 in the world. Its market cap is large but currently smaller than Japan’s, because a disproportionate ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 26, 2018 4:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: YTD 15% capital loss. What is next?
Replies: 27
Views: 2506

Re: YTD 15% capital loss. What is next?

Preferred stock is essentially a bond with infinite duration, so they tend to get killed when yields rise. Also they are issued by companies who can't raise enough working capital by selling bonds. They tend not to be the best companies so they tend to get killed when people want to reduce risk. Pr...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 26, 2018 4:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 191
Views: 25173

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

crypto currency is on free fall, this seem to be the hot topic for months here then it stopped. Are the bitcoin supporters buying on the dip? Doubtful. I'm glad to not see those threads here anymore. No one wanted to hear the issues with their poor choices anyway. As far as fads appearing and then ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 26, 2018 3:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 51 years old, looking to retire overseas at 62 [EU citizen working in USA]
Replies: 8
Views: 1005

Re: 51 years old, looking to retire overseas at 62 [EU citizen working in USA]

Thanks for the welcome TravelGeek . I see what you mean, when I hear index fund I think SP500, or Russel 3000, etc.. not an index of the entire market of US stocks, my ignorance. i am very new to all this.. I will be doing some homework and try to consolidate this into a more simplified allocation....
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 26, 2018 3:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Starting a global 2-fund portfolio [Australian based in Europe]
Replies: 16
Views: 851

Re: Starting a global 2-fund portfolio [Australian based in Europe]

I don't think there would be much different between the World ex Australia and the World with Australia indices? IWLD is 2.45% Aus. 59% US. VWRL is 2.2% Aus. 54% US and covers a much wider range of shares through Asia and South America. Generally the strategy is to take the broadest index. There is...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 26, 2018 3:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 191
Views: 25173

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

crypto currency is on free fall, this seem to be the hot topic for months here then it stopped. Are the bitcoin supporters buying on the dip? You also notice the 100% equity (gold etc.) threads have died down last month or two. With a board with such a wide audience you inevitably get trend followi...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 25, 2018 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 98829

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Where do you think China would have ranked on that report 20 years ago? 40? Well, according to the 2001-2002 report , which is as far back as I could find on demand, China was no. 47. Guess who was no. 2 way back then? :D (The US was technically no. 2 in this year's report too, though with a same p...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 25, 2018 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 98829

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

we (American investors) have perceived something about world markets that markets as a whole have not perceived and priced into the stocks of US and foreign listed companies I think that there may be something to this. It's not that American investors know something that the rest of the world doesn...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 25, 2018 1:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Galapagos Islands-Land based day tours worth it?
Replies: 9
Views: 740

Re: Galapagos Islands-Land based day tours worth it?

Has anyone done land based day tours? If so, how was your experience? People who have done both, is the cruise based tour essential? Land based only you would see the Turtle rescue stations and not a lot else. Even 7 days sailing doesn't give you the full set of islands - the Park authority is quit...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 25, 2018 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 98829

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Still the same arguments. Recency bias. Past performance/Investing in the rear view mirror. American superiority. Not trusting the rest of the world. Costs Currency risk America first. Young investors seeing this and trying to devise a plan: This is not pure index investing. You need to literally b...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 25, 2018 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 51 years old, looking to retire overseas at 62 [EU citizen working in USA]
Replies: 8
Views: 1005

Re: 51 years old, looking to retire overseas at 62 [EU citizen working in USA]

Hello I am new to the forum, but have been reading and lurking a few weeks. I am 51 years old, looking to retire overseas at 62, western Europe ( I am an EU citizen, but work in the USA). I am at a crossroads, as far as allocations. I feel I should be more aggressive, but have reservations.. My cur...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 25, 2018 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: US govt agency bonds
Replies: 8
Views: 923

Re: US govt agency bonds

I'm interested in investing in US govt agency bonds e.g. Federal Home Loan Banks, Federal Farm Credit Banks, etc, through my Vanguard account. The listings are somewhat bewildering -- I have a lot to learn. I found one source of info: http://investinginbonds.com/learnmore.asp?catid=9&subcatid=52 I'...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 25, 2018 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too Much Apple [AAPL] Stock
Replies: 63
Views: 7369

Re: Too Much Apple [AAPL] Stock

I'm already overweight with aapl in my portfolio. but when the market opens on monday I'm buying 500 shares. I hope to sell it within a month or two, hopefully in tax year 2019. I think that's a pretty safe play foe hopefully a 5-10% return. of course, its a bit like gambling. and i have been wrong...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 25, 2018 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Starting a global 2-fund portfolio [Australian based in Europe]
Replies: 16
Views: 851

Re: Starting a global 2-fund portfolio [Australian based in Europe]

"In general, your "home" in regards to home country and home currency refers to where you will spend down, not where you currently live." Great advice on how identify and think in terms of a "home" country and currency. Also helpful to be clear that the home currency only needs to be considered for...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 25, 2018 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 98829

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

I held 50% international (EAFE, large value, small company, FTSE all-cap) for 23 years and consider it almost totally useless for any purpose other than reducing portfolio returns. With the same rearview mirror, I look at Total US market the same way. I should have held US Micro Cap or US Small Cap...
by Valuethinker
Sat Nov 24, 2018 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with small, frozen UK Pension pot
Replies: 7
Views: 504

Re: What to do with small, frozen UK Pension pot

Thanks - I've already transferred it over to a SIPP with AJBell Youinvest. I can choose any fund I like with them. e.g. https://www.youinvest.co.uk/market-research/FUND:BZ6VK78 (Vanguard Target Retirement) or LifeStrategy or even my global index fund I mentioned. Just not sure which one to go for. ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Nov 24, 2018 10:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why I plan on buying a life annuity - even if it is a stupid idea
Replies: 117
Views: 10737

Re: Why I plan on buying a life annuity - even if it is a stupid idea

A life annuity that is not indexed for inflation creates a lot of challenges. A 70 year old man buying a nominal life annuity for $500,000 gets $39,120 per year. The real value of the payout will have dwindled down to $21,174 by age 100 if inflation is 2%, or $11,598 if inflation is 4%. Given that ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Nov 24, 2018 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with small, frozen UK Pension pot
Replies: 7
Views: 504

Re: What to do with small, frozen UK Pension pot

Age - 42 Personal Investments: 75: - Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF 25: - iShares Global AAA-AA Govt Bond UCITS ETF Total Balance : $95,000 Property Value: $885,000 Mortgage: $125,000 UK Frozen Pension - $22,540 Israeli Pension - $85,000 Question for you all. I am currently a UK expat, living in...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 23, 2018 5:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is my husband ready to quit tenured professorship to pursue side hustle?
Replies: 97
Views: 10385

Re: Is my husband ready to quit tenured professorship to pursue side hustle?

I chuckled at the thought of a tenured professor having a "side hustle," surely a phrase that is more synonymous with Uber drivers than academics possessing the breadth of knowledge and tenacity needed to author textbooks. It seems like you and your husband can survive without the yearly anticipate...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 23, 2018 5:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is my husband ready to quit tenured professorship to pursue side hustle?
Replies: 97
Views: 10385

Re: Is my husband ready to quit tenured professorship to pursue side hustle?

Why did they make the early retirement offer? Does he feel that they want him to leave for some reason. If that's the case and he refuses, there are ways that they can increase the pressure on him to leave. Fighting to stick it out is not a fun way to end a career. The offer is for all professors o...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 23, 2018 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you need to invest mostly in stocks to get rich?
Replies: 178
Views: 16996

Re: Do you need to invest mostly in stocks to get rich?

Interesting how the "cherry picking" argument always comes up when the data don't cooperate with one's assumptions. Hardly cherry picking to begin at the start of a tremendous bull market in stocks, but find that almost four decades later a much more conservative allocation of 50% bonds had lower c...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 5 Funds
Replies: 19
Views: 1963

Re: 5 Funds

Thoughts on a 5 fund of Total stock Total international Short term corporate REIT small cap value What is missing The equity risk in a corporate bond fund correlates with the equity risk in the rest of the portfolio. Thus, you have reduced diversification over holding a US Treasury bond fund. I wou...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 23, 2018 5:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Alternative/Clean Energy Investing
Replies: 13
Views: 1032

Re: Alternative/Clean Energy Investing

@Valuethinker, the book you refer to is Taming the Sun by Varun Sivaram, which I’m one chapter into, based on, iirc, your recommendation. And, further to my point, before I invested in a needle rather than the Boglehead haystack, I’d have to read much much more. As a retired person, I have more tim...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 23, 2018 4:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Affordable living for retired father in Ontario, Canada making ~1200/mo?
Replies: 11
Views: 1529

Re: Affordable living for retired father in Ontario, Canada making ~1200/mo?

My father who owned various businesses generally invested all his money into those business and didn't set anything aside in terms of savings or investments for retirement. Those business didn't pan out and as you can probably guess, he has no savings and is living on a pension of around $1200 CAD/...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 23, 2018 4:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bull market with low short term confidence
Replies: 8
Views: 1289

Re: A bull market with low short term confidence

Sadly prices have not continued to rise lately. However why should stocks continue to return handsomely in general? Because the underlying companies are earning profits. Apple is making $50 billion+ a quarter. How in the world could a company make that much and its shareholders not eventually profi...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 23, 2018 4:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency and International Investing
Replies: 7
Views: 1005

Re: Currency and International Investing

It can be seen that during relatively weak periods in the United States all foreign currencies tend to appreciate against the U.S. dollar – even those with weaker economies (i.e., with lower output gaps). Have a look and correct my interpretation where wrong please. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/pap...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 23, 2018 3:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can someone explain what's going on [with the stock market]?
Replies: 96
Views: 13093

Re: Can someone explain what's going on [with the stock market]?

2008 was a bad year for stocks and worse for the economy as a whole. As far as stocks are concerned, after the recent sell off we are still over 1000 S&P points above the peak before the 2008 selloff; and no, I can't explain why the stock market is doing so well! The economy angle is an interesting...
by Valuethinker
Thu Nov 22, 2018 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need help with investment plan [Europe]
Replies: 7
Views: 677

Re: Need help with investment plan [Europe]

Thank you for the responses. I needed some time to reflect on the question "have I won the game?". Considering that I can sustain my current lifestyle by spending only 1% of my cash on an annual basis, the answer is yes. There's also still a lot of room to grow my lifestyle, considering my current ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Nov 22, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does a "Larry" portfolio work in the current interest rate environment?
Replies: 23
Views: 2040

Re: Does a "Larry" portfolio work in the current interest rate environment?

I don’t know how to get 8% from anything right now. Everything is really expensive. Less expensive than it was earlier in the year, but still expensive. The only thing you can guarantee 8% with now is to let your SS grow until you're 70 yrs old. And that is not "Portfolio Growth". Because it's (mor...
by Valuethinker
Thu Nov 22, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can someone explain what's going on [with the stock market]?
Replies: 96
Views: 13093

Re: Can someone explain what's going on [with the stock market]?

[Quoted post removed by admin LadyGeek] Don't let idle tweets spoil your understanding of how the Fed works. "the job of the Central Banker is to take the punch bowl away from the party before the party gets going" The Fed is quite predictable - the Taylor Rule. When its measure of spare economic c...
by Valuethinker
Thu Nov 22, 2018 7:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better investments than the stock market?
Replies: 24
Views: 3893

Re: Better investments than the stock market?

It seems that some people believe that owning "politicians" has a great long-term rate of return. But unless you already have a lot of money, and plans to do something shady, you probably can't capitalize on this investment concept. The evidence on US election spending is that it has pretty low ret...