Search found 483 matches

by riverguy
Wed Sep 21, 2011 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ref'ing rental property
Replies: 15
Views: 1657

krantcents wrote:Paying less interest means less of a income tax deduction. In other words more of your income will be subject to taxes. Depending on your tax bracket, it can be meaningful.
Pay the bank a dollar to keep from paying the govt 35 cents. Sounds like a great deal.
by riverguy
Thu Sep 08, 2011 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Predicting the Nov CPI-U rate used by I-Bonds
Replies: 22
Views: 2546

Wait until Oct when the Sept CPI comes out. That is what the variable portion is based on. Then you know what you'll be getting for a whole year.
by riverguy
Thu Sep 01, 2011 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I bonds
Replies: 38
Views: 6198

Why would you buy them now? Wait until the September CPI-U comes out in October and then you know your total 1 year return. It doesn't really make sense to buy right now IMO.
by riverguy
Mon Aug 29, 2011 8:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why do so many in US choose 30 year fixed rate mortgage?
Replies: 55
Views: 8137

bombcar wrote:The real question is why anyone is SELLING 30 year mortgages; uncallable bonds at those rates are unattractive to say the least.
Because they dump the trash into fannie and freddie and actually end up making their money on fees and servicing the loan.
by riverguy
Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many people here believe we going to have a double deep
Replies: 45
Views: 6465

Did we ever really get out of the first one? No. We just tried to paper over it. Too bad it didn't work.
by riverguy
Tue Aug 09, 2011 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did Fed just abolish interest-rate risk for bonds?
Replies: 46
Views: 6397

They can't really control the long end of the curve. The market controls that.
by riverguy
Tue Aug 09, 2011 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why always said, you should max out your your 401k?
Replies: 40
Views: 5938

The main reason that people preach this IMO is that most people think of 401k when you talk about retirement. Its been embedded in their brains for 30 years. Most don't realize there are other ways to save or put down the other ways because "401k IS THE BEST". There's almost a cult following with th...
by riverguy
Sun Aug 07, 2011 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Employment elephant in the room
Replies: 92
Views: 7236

Re: Employment elephant in the room

This chart really shows how much trouble we are in. Maybe I've been on another planet but I didn't appreciate how much worse this recession is compared to others since 1950. The drop of the percentage of people employed from 63% to 58% is nearly twice as much as any of the other recessions since 19...
by riverguy
Sun Jul 31, 2011 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taking bets on equity move on debt deal
Replies: 32
Views: 3436

never understand how its a good thing we're going more into debt. Is a home mortgage a good thing? Is a student loan to finance college a good thing? So long as you can afford the interest. We can't. Sure we can, interest expense as % of gdp is lower than nearly every year since 1980 we have seemin...
by riverguy
Sun Jul 31, 2011 3:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Title Insurance when Refinancing?
Replies: 10
Views: 2049

Majormajor pretty much missed the point of the thread, but he quoted the paragraph you need from that site. You don't need a new owner's policy.
by riverguy
Wed Jul 27, 2011 6:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: We may as well start the thread --Staying the Course
Replies: 64
Views: 6555

Re: Seeds of Destruction

Excellent! Yes, bear markets seed their own demise! The lower things fall the greater the expected returns. :lol: When the discounts start causing historically large expected returns, people realize that this is kind of a hard to lose trade. There are basically two kinds of bear markets. In one typ...
by riverguy
Mon Jul 25, 2011 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Panic Doesn't Work
Replies: 26
Views: 4644

The market bounced because of QE and suspension of mark to market. Who would have guessed we would have hadthose types of government interference in the markets?
by riverguy
Fri Jul 22, 2011 7:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If the US Government defaults... What will happen?
Replies: 26
Views: 2703

We go to a balanced budget and will not default on the debt. There is plenty of revenue to service the debt. The world finally recognizes that the us economy has been supported by unsustainable, reckless govt deficit spending. The US/World fall into the depression that has been a long time coming, b...
by riverguy
Sat Jul 16, 2011 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why will the stock market go up in the future?
Replies: 60
Views: 7940

The stock market and GDP are dependent on the govt deficit spending ~12% of GDP. Is that sustainable? I say no. Couple that with all the boomers that will be drawing on their investments to retire and the younger generation saddled with nondischargable student loan debt, I'd say future performance i...
by riverguy
Sat Jul 16, 2011 12:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Are I bonds good to buy now
Replies: 23
Views: 2824

Why mid October? What is to happen then? You'll know what they'll pay for the whole first year once the Oct CPI numbers come out. The rates are adjusted every six months. Reference: http://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds_iratesandterms.htm Inflation Rate: Announced e...
by riverguy
Thu Jul 14, 2011 10:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ARM math
Replies: 6
Views: 996

New payments are calculated on the balance remaining at the time of adjustment, amortized over the remaining life of the original term.
by riverguy
Thu Jun 30, 2011 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you leave $100 million in a bank savings account?
Replies: 22
Views: 3697

There's a nice scene in the book The Greatest Trade Ever. The book is primarily about John Paulson's hedge fund that made billions betting against subprime loans and the like. Pellegrini is one of the architects of the bet: http://i55.tinypic.com/347gxs6.jpg Yea its not too hard to win when you des...
by riverguy
Wed Jun 01, 2011 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Im not understanding call options
Replies: 22
Views: 2163

You can't expect to buy deep in the money calls and get rich. Look at the delta on the option. It is 0.94. If the stock moves you are pretty much going to move dollar for dollar with the stock. There isn't a premium because the position has essentially no time value because it is so far in the money...
by riverguy
Thu May 19, 2011 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: linkedin ipo
Replies: 65
Views: 5448

Just another scam job by the investment banks. Look how much money the company left on the table. What do you bet they will take the over-allotment?:D

As far as an 8 billion dollar company? Good luck with that. Linkedin will be another fad that comes and goes. Hello 1999. Hello Myspace.
by riverguy
Wed May 18, 2011 8:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Understanding the interest rate for I bonds
Replies: 17
Views: 2155

Re: What Am I Missing ?

There is definitely a risk greater than "not likely" for you to earn 0% on the second 6 months. With the fixed rate at 0, all it takes is the CPI-U in Sept to be the same or equal to what it was in March. Now 2.3% is still ok for a 1 year lockup in the current environment vs similar options, but the...
by riverguy
Mon May 09, 2011 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will bond prices decline when QE2 ends? Not necessarily.
Replies: 42
Views: 5161

And then you ask yourself who is going to buy the new issues of US treasury bonds? The Fed is the market now. If QE stops, the govt is going to have one heck of a time selling close to 2T of debt into the market.
by riverguy
Tue Nov 30, 2010 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GM and total stock market index funds
Replies: 24
Views: 4138

Re: GM and total stock market index funds

Bond investors actually got more than they would have received had the company been liquidated, which was what would have happened if not for the government bailout. I'm not so sure about that. The various assets in liquidation had plenty of value, just not enough to cover the liabilities. In a non...
by riverguy
Sun Oct 31, 2010 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goodwill on a balance sheet = FALSELY categorized as value?
Replies: 43
Views: 6060

Since when did accounting rules matter? Ever looked at a big bank's balance sheet? HELOCs in bubble states held at near par? Ya.

Accounting fraud is part of the "recovery"
by riverguy
Tue Oct 26, 2010 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Best Inflation Hedge is...?
Replies: 72
Views: 11455

TIPS? With a govt who is paying the interest controlling the CPI number? Conflict of interest much? Good luck.
by riverguy
Sun Oct 10, 2010 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Social Security COLA in 2011..2nd year in row..
Replies: 13
Views: 1662

Tell Bernanke to quit jackin around with loose monetary policy then. Assets are deflating while everything you need is increasing due to rampant speculation with as the easy money floating around. Look at some of the food charts....unbelievable.
by riverguy
Fri Oct 01, 2010 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HyperFast trading bad for index funds?
Replies: 50
Views: 4093

What about the folks not getting filled because computers are stepping in front of them? Noone is getting stepped in front of. You can't place subpenny orders. *sigh* You can't place subpenny orders but broker/dealers and dark pools can fill orders with subpenny prices. Subpenny orders would be fin...
by riverguy
Fri Oct 01, 2010 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HyperFast trading bad for index funds?
Replies: 50
Views: 4093

Getting rid of subpennying and making all orders valid for at least 1 second would fix a bunch of problems. You mean the problem of getting retail price improvement and tight spreads? Yes, you can fix those by making the changes you suggest. Oh wait, that would be worse for the average retail inves...
by riverguy
Thu Sep 30, 2010 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case for Gold as a Practical Investment
Replies: 55
Views: 5868

and the outlook for stocks is improving. Which is why they are cutting growth estimates for next year, mutual funds continue to see outflows, insider sales dominate buying, consumer sentiment is down, consumers have no money, some 13% of the country on food stamps etc etc. Stocks are in fantasyland...
by riverguy
Thu Sep 30, 2010 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HyperFast trading bad for index funds?
Replies: 50
Views: 4093

HFT's add liquidity to the market. Uh volume != liquidty. HFTs pull their orders when it benefits themselves. Enter flash crash. I'm not sure where you're getting this information. FINRA disallows orders priced at an less than a penny increment in stock trading >$1. Look up dark pools. Order flow c...
by riverguy
Wed May 26, 2010 7:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying ETFs at a discount to NAV
Replies: 7
Views: 1489

I highly doubt you got a 5% discount to NAV especially in VTI. A difference smaller than that, let alone 5%, would be arb'd away by creation/redemption of a creation unit by the big boys. JMHO
by riverguy
Mon May 24, 2010 10:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need help with an investment plan
Replies: 5
Views: 1236

First of all I appreciate your input/help and taking the time to type all that out. The deal with the 401k is that a lump sum is contributed every year and it can only be put in those target "funds". There is nothing about their holdings online other than the percentages. The rest of the money in th...
by riverguy
Mon May 24, 2010 4:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need help with an investment plan
Replies: 5
Views: 1236

Sorry I wasn't a little clearer on things the first time and sorry for the essay below. I had been saving for a house, but I did some thinking and I have cheap rent right now and no true need for a house. I'm going to wait it out with interest rates on the rise and shadow inventory lurking and see w...
by riverguy
Sun May 23, 2010 10:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need help with an investment plan
Replies: 5
Views: 1236

Need help with an investment plan

I have been sitting in mostly cash since about June last year saving up for a house. I have been a little bearish on the market and am trying to formulate a plan to invest. I currently have: around $85,000 in cash - $12,000 for emergency fund so about $73,000 $2200 in a muni fund 401k: $25k in money...