Search found 3055 matches

by #Cruncher
Tue May 19, 2020 3:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Open Social Security strategy results question
Replies: 59
Views: 4481

Re: Open Social Security strategy results question

Oddly enough, if I enter the max income for a Roth conversion of $103,350 ($78,950+24,400) to max out the 12% bracket, Turbotax comes out with a total tax of $9,092 which would be $6 more than what the top of the 12% bracket should be. Because tax tables go in chunks of $100, so $103,350 is rounded...
by #Cruncher
Tue May 19, 2020 12:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Open Social Security strategy results question
Replies: 59
Views: 4481

Re: Open Social Security strategy results question

… it's often the case that it doesn't matter very much when the lower earner files. It's generally far less impactful of a decision than when the higher earner files. Correct. This is because the smaller payment generally continues only while both members of a couple live, while the larger payment ...
by #Cruncher
Mon May 18, 2020 12:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does Delaying Social Security Deliver an 8% Return?
Replies: 92
Views: 7687

Re: Does Delaying Social Security Deliver an 8% Return?

There are papers on this topic … They wrote that SS benefits were intended to be actuarially neutral for a specified real interest rate and a specified longevity. IIRC, the specified real interest rate was 2%, and the specified longrvity was 82, ... That is roughly the case for someone with a norma...
by #Cruncher
Fri May 15, 2020 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations
Replies: 61
Views: 5308

Re: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations

I've updated the breakeven calculation in this post [*] from Friday 4/17/2020 to Friday 5/15/2020 to cover 21 TIPS maturing from Jan 2021 to Feb 2050 using Friday's WSJ TIPS and nominal Treasury quotes. They range from -0.5% for the Jan 2021 TIPS maturing in about eight months, to +0.9% for the Jan ...
by #Cruncher
Thu May 14, 2020 8:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does Delaying Social Security Deliver an 8% Return?
Replies: 92
Views: 7687

Re: Does Delaying Social Security Deliver an 8% Return?

... Social Security is intended to be "actuarially neutral." I believe that to a rough approximation it is. … So the net present value of future benefits and internal rate of return and so forth are supposed to be about the same. (underline added) The internal rates of return from my previous post ...
by #Cruncher
Thu May 14, 2020 4:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does Delaying Social Security Deliver an 8% Return?
Replies: 92
Views: 7687

Re: Does Delaying Social Security Deliver an 8% Return?

Delaying gives you an 8% increase in payments at the cost of 1 year of income. Delaying one year increases the benefit anywhere from 6.5% to 8.3% depending on the age you delay to and on your Normal Retirement Age (NRA). As shown on this SSA web page , the Normal Retirement Age (aka Full Retirement...
by #Cruncher
Sun May 10, 2020 2:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Treasury Direct IBonds - Base Interest Rate?
Replies: 7
Views: 732

Re: Treasury Direct IBonds - Base Interest Rate?

I'd rather not manually match each of them up to the master list as it's just a stack of busy work. If you're comfortable working with spreadsheets, you can automate the matching up process in either of two ways. Login to your TreasuryDirect account and get a list of your I Bonds. Copy and paste [ ...
by #Cruncher
Fri May 08, 2020 9:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I buy this annuity?
Replies: 18
Views: 1311

Re: Should I buy this annuity?

It's inaccurate to compare the 2.5% [yield on a bond mutual fund] and 7.47% [payout of an annuity]. ... As other have noted, the $37K is probably not tax free. … The return of an annuity (as opposed to its payout ) depends on how long it runs. This one ($37,368 annual payout on $500,000 cost) must ...
by #Cruncher
Wed May 06, 2020 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Trying To Determine Monthly SS Increase After FRA
Replies: 6
Views: 633

Re: Trying To Determine Monthly SS Increase After FRA

Assume ones PIA is 2900.00 a month on December 31 of 2020. The person turned 66 and reached his FRA, on November 30 2020. To avoid confusion for others, antiqueman, PIA (Primary Insurance Amount) is the benefit one would get at FRA (aka NRA, Full or Normal Retirement Age). I assume you're saying it...
by #Cruncher
Tue May 05, 2020 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Check my "roll yield" math please
Replies: 5
Views: 626

Re: Check my "roll yield" math please

Return over two years 1.0384/1.0181= 1.0384 1.0199 My "Roll" yield is the total annualized rate: 1.0384 1.0199 ^(1/2)-1= 0.0099 or .99% Your final result of 0.99% is correct, Doc; but you typed the wrong intermediate result of "1.0384" which I've corrected to "1.0199" above. The "roll yield" can be...
by #Cruncher
Mon May 04, 2020 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Calculation of yield to maturity for TIPS
Replies: 9
Views: 699

Re: Calculation of yield to maturity for TIPS

The ref CPI used for the 4/15/2021 inflation adjustment is the interpolated CPI for 1/15/2021, which requires the Jan and Feb CPI values, ... Some people may be confused by this wording, Kevin. The Reference CPI for 4/15 is interpolated between the Reference CPIs for 4/1 and 5/1. There is no "inter...
by #Cruncher
Sat May 02, 2020 6:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Take Social Security now, at 66, during Corona-virus?
Replies: 61
Views: 5099

Re: Take Social Security now, at 66, during Corona-virus?

Suppose that you would be in the phase-in, and part of $20,000 SS will be taxable if you claim at 66. When you clam at 67, the extra $1600 of income adds $800 to the number used for calculating how much SS is taxable, and thus $340 to your taxable SS. If in the 85% SS taxation phase in, it would ad...
by #Cruncher
Fri May 01, 2020 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch
Replies: 163
Views: 29406

Re: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch

For those interested, here are the composite rates that will take effect from May 2020 to October 2020 [ 1 ] and run for six months for all outstanding I Bonds, including newly issued ones with a 0.00% fixed rate. [ 2 ] They incorporate the new semi-annual inflation rate of 0.53% : Fixed Rate Announ...
by #Cruncher
Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund
Replies: 114
Views: 36925

Re: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund

Edited 5/22/2020 5:55 PM to update daily average yields through today. Not much change over the past week. The 1-5 index dropped to -0.23% , while the 15+ index edged higher to -0.09% . Edited 5/15/2020 4:10 PM to update daily average yields through today. The long (15+) index yields about the same...
by #Cruncher
Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wiki Error Regarding Social Security Taxation??
Replies: 5
Views: 414

Re: Wiki Error Regarding Social Security Taxation??

As Silk McCue says, the Wiki is correct, irishguy. Following is the section that you're referring to. I've italicized what you quoted. But I have also underlined "other income" in the previous line. Just mentally add "of other income" to "For every dollar" in your two quotes and they should be clear...
by #Cruncher
Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pension Annuity Distribution Options advice please
Replies: 16
Views: 948

Re: Pension Annuity Distribution Options advice please

(Here is the table from the original post reformatted to make it easier to read: as of 6/2022 as of 6/2027 as of 6/2032 You Bene You Bene You Bene ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ Single Life Annuity $1,026 $1,327 $1,499 5 Years Certain and Life $1,016 [$1,016] $1,306 [$1,306] $1,459 [$1,4...
by #Cruncher
Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond duration when the yield is negative
Replies: 5
Views: 736

Re: Bond duration when the yield is negative

Does this help? https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=96901 This post in that thread cites a formula on Wikipedia "For a bond with coupon frequency but an integer number of periods". However further down in that article is a formula that works even with an initial fractional interest per...
by #Cruncher
Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Take Social Security now, at 66, during Corona-virus?
Replies: 61
Views: 5099

Re: Take Social Security now, at 66, during Corona-virus?

... SS was designed to be actuarially neutral in 1986 , ... Since 1986: Longevity has increased Interest rates have decreased Expected equity returns have decreased All 3 of these points skew in favor of claiming at a later age. Bottom line is that SS is no longer actuarially neutral. I once saw a ...
by #Cruncher
Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short vs long TIPS inflation protection
Replies: 68
Views: 6361

Re: Short vs long TIPS inflation protection

Note: this post will be of only academic interest, and that to only a few. * For simplicity, I'm ignoring the 6-month coupon interest payments in the cash flows. I'm treating each TIPS as a zero-coupon bond with the entire proceeds coming on the maturity date. I don't think this has a big effect on...
by #Cruncher
Wed Apr 22, 2020 3:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Five Year TIPS auction next week.
Replies: 6
Views: 1115

Re: Five Year TIPS auction next week.

Here's an update of my estimate for the yield at tomorrow's (Thursday 4/23/2020) 5-year TIPS auction . It's not much changed from my post on Friday . I would estimate the auction yield based on the April 2024 maturity adjusted for being one year further out on the yield curve. Applying this method t...
by #Cruncher
Sun Apr 19, 2020 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short vs long TIPS inflation protection
Replies: 68
Views: 6361

Re: Short vs long TIPS inflation protection

... those [TIPS] that mature in the next year should certainly not just be averaged in based on their quoted real YTMs of 4.81%, 2.05%, and 1.53% and percent of assets (4.89%, 5.02%, and 5.91%, respectively). I agree. One way to see this is to compute the "average" YTM in a different way: by calcul...
by #Cruncher
Sun Apr 19, 2020 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Categories
Replies: 15
Views: 870

Re: Tax Categories

According to the 2019 Tax brackets a single making over 39,476 a year is taxed at 22%. I reviewed of my taxes which stated I only paid 7K in taxes which is 9%[.] That is 9% of $75,000, but 13.8% of your taxable income (6925 / 50300 as shown in the first column below). A Roth conversion or any other...
by #Cruncher
Sun Apr 19, 2020 6:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short vs long TIPS inflation protection
Replies: 68
Views: 6361

Re: Short vs long TIPS inflation protection

It seems the holdings in VTIP are at .7% real yield. VTIP follows the index of all TIPS maturing within the next five years. My latest calculation, shown in this post from another thread, using Friday's WSJ TIPS Quotes , shows the 0-5 year index to have an average yield of +0.59% . However, the ave...
by #Cruncher
Sat Apr 18, 2020 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations
Replies: 61
Views: 5308

Re: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations

I've updated the breakeven calculation in this post [*] from Tuesday 3/17/2020 to Friday 4/17/2020 to cover 21 TIPS maturing from Jan 2021 to Feb 2050 using Friday's WSJ TIPS and nominal Treasury quotes. They range from -2.1% for the Jan 2021 TIPS maturing in about nine months, to +0.6% for the Jan ...
by #Cruncher
Fri Apr 17, 2020 4:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Five Year TIPS auction next week.
Replies: 6
Views: 1115

Re: Five Year TIPS auction next week.

here's a link back to auctions in 2011 at negative yield https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2011/R_20110421_1.pdf There have been many 5-year TIPS auctions with negative yields. As shown in the next to rightmost column here , the most recent was held 4/20/2017 with a yi...
by #Cruncher
Fri Apr 17, 2020 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short vs long TIPS inflation protection
Replies: 68
Views: 6361

Re: Short vs long TIPS inflation protection

I'll be having my eye on today's 5 year auction re-open ... Today's 5 Year TIPS auction: Indicative Yield: - 0.351% But today's 5 year auction opening today showed ... I'd hoped the movement in March ... was a new trend and that I'd be buying the 5 year at today's auction. For the record, there is ...
by #Cruncher
Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just how good is I-bonds' nominal guarantee during deflation?
Replies: 30
Views: 3449

Re: Just how good is I-bonds' nominal guarantee during deflation?

Back to the original question -- "just how good?" -- given that deflation doesn't happen often, the deflation bonus from I Bonds only kicks in briefly, and it's very small in size. I'm reopening this old thread because, with the terrible state of the economy, there's more chance of deflation over o...
by #Cruncher
Wed Apr 15, 2020 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cons of i bonds?
Replies: 70
Views: 6484

Re: Cons of i bonds?

... I am surprised no one mentioned what I found to be a major flaw in these - there are potentially 6 month periods (or more) where there will be 0% interest earned. This is not a flaw. It's the way inflation indexing works. If the CPI increases, the composite rate will be greater than the fixed r...
by #Cruncher
Tue Apr 14, 2020 5:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fun with Progressive Taxes--can you check my math?
Replies: 30
Views: 1758

Re: Fun with Progressive Taxes--can you check my math?

The correct formula [for determining how much of SS benefits are taxable] is in Taxation of Social Security benefits on the wiki. This Wiki article is well worth reading. I modified its table of a single tax return for the original poster's case of $25,000 in SS benefits. I also added two columns s...
by #Cruncher
Sun Apr 12, 2020 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS yield higher than treasuries
Replies: 4
Views: 818

Re: TIPS yield higher than treasuries

For 1-5 year TIPS, real YTM was 0.21% as of 4/3/20, according to this post: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=104845&start=100#p5158895 I've just updated that post through Thursday 4/9/2020 (bond markets were closed on Friday 4/10). [Thanks for jogging my memory, jeffyscott !] I...
by #Cruncher
Sat Apr 11, 2020 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's LMP-5: Retiree Portfolio ala David Swensen
Replies: 64
Views: 4050

Re: Grok's LMP-5: Retiree Portfolio ala David Swensen

$10,000 today will buy you, in twenty years, $24,400 @ 1.00% $19,486 @ -0.13% I think you mean $20,000 today will buy you ... A 30-year TIPS ladder set up to provide $1,200/month of real income would cost about $340,000 to fund by my calculation. $340,000 is way understated. That would correspond t...
by #Cruncher
Fri Apr 10, 2020 5:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I-Bonds: March 2020 BLS CPI-U report
Replies: 18
Views: 1869

Re: I-Bonds: March 2020 BLS CPI-U report

... from the BLS report this morning the new variable rate will be 1.06% (from an Sep 2019 to March 2020 increase of 0.53%). Yes, the 258.115 March CPI is a 0.53% increase over last September's 256.759. (To see, choose U.S. city average, All items - CUUR0000SA0 from the BLS CPI-U Top Picks page.) H...
by #Cruncher
Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 I Bonds: what's your plan?
Replies: 55
Views: 7842

Re: 2020 I Bonds: what's your plan?

The CPI for March was released this morning and is slightly down from February due to the economic downturn. CPI is up about 1.005% from 9/30 to 3/30, which would translate to 2.01% variable rate, down negligibly from current variable rate of 2.02%. The CPI increased from 256.759 in September 2019 ...
by #Cruncher
Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A tale of SEC yield
Replies: 64
Views: 4266

Re: A tale of SEC yield

On 3/3/2020, (average NAV of the prior 30 days) $5.96 * (SEC yield) 4.19% = $0.25 income/share. On 4/3/2020, (average NAV of the prior 30 days) $5.30 * (SEC yield) 8.48% 8.46% = $0.45 income/share Your calculation does not reflect the underlined portion of Kevin M 's cogent explanation: ... yield t...
by #Cruncher
Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund
Replies: 114
Views: 36925

Re: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund

Does the April 15, 2021 TIPS fall into their "< 1yr" category as of April 1, 2020? I thought about that. But that issue apparently is included in their "1-5" index of 14 bonds. It would be strange to include it in one index but then exclude it from an encompassing index. Here are the three "Bloombe...
by #Cruncher
Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund
Replies: 114
Views: 36925

Re: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund

as another source, here are the real yields for some of the indices out of BloombergBarclaysLive as of 4/3: Is this info available at no charge on the internet, Grok? 1+ yr -0.09% (41 bonds) 41? I wonder which of the 42 TIPS maturing April 15, 2021 through February 15, 2050 is omitted and why? 1-5 ...
by #Cruncher
Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying Individual TIPS, How Do You Do It
Replies: 5
Views: 588

Re: Buying Individual TIPS, How Do You Do It

… although I'm an experienced investor, I still can't quite understand the nuances of TIPS in a fund and the risks involved. A TIPS fund has no more risks than any other bond fund. In fact it has one less risk, namely inflation risk. Any bond fund including a TIPS fund is like a rolling ladder of b...
by #Cruncher
Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Check my math comparing 1.5% APY to money market 7-day yield?
Replies: 5
Views: 549

Re: Check my math comparing 1.5% APY to money market 7-day yield?

Is this right? https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19FPvZuKYN5jbsb-dnfRHAlTvIUuRVW1AGGNqsKIqtHY/edit?usp=sharing No. Here is a copy of your spreadsheet: Row Col A Col B Col C Col D 2 starting balance 20,000 3 Ally bank 1.50% APY, compounded daily 20,302 =FV(B3/365, 365, 0, D2*-1) 4 Schwab SWVXX ...
by #Cruncher
Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund
Replies: 114
Views: 36925

Re: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund

The TIPS market has been so volatile lately that I'm going to try updating the index weighted average yields to maturity weekly or possibly even daily. Edited 12:15 PM 4/25/2020 to update yields through Friday 4/24/2020. The 1-5 index now yields 0.23% points more than the 1+ index (+0.03% vs -0.20%...
by #Cruncher
Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund
Replies: 114
Views: 36925

Re: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund

I've updated the Yield to Maturity and Duration Calculator with WSJ TIPS Prices 03/31/2020 [*] and the weighting effect of the 10-year auctions in Janaury & March and the 30-year auction in February. As shown in the table below, the weighted average yield of the bonds in the 1+ years broad index (0....
by #Cruncher
Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best Pension Choice from an Actuarial Science Point of View
Replies: 5
Views: 524

Re: Best Pension Choice from an Actuarial Science Point of View

The longer you or your spouse were to live the better it would be to delay four months to August, but the effect is small. For example, the following shows that if either of you lived for only 10 years (to March 2030), delaying to August would have a present value (when discounted at 4%) about $2,00...
by #Cruncher
Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: ? real withdrawals and tips
Replies: 17
Views: 891

Re: ? real withdrawals and tips

In practice there is some finagling to find available TIPS to fill the ladder and finding a way to reinvest interest payments. Indeed some "finagling" is required to fill the 2033-2039 gap when no TIPS currently mature. But it's not necessary to find "a way to reinvest interest payments". They can ...
by #Cruncher
Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60:40 portfolio in down market. Need help with math.
Replies: 8
Views: 1365

Re: 60:40 portfolio in down market. Need help with math.

Stock market starts going down. Every time the AA drifts by 5% ( 55:45 etc) the investor re-balances to the original [60:40 stocks:bonds] AA. However rebalancing stops when stable value fund [i.e., bonds] drops to 2 million ("Reserve amount" "R". (20 % of initial amount (T)) Questions: How low will...
by #Cruncher
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Google market charts internally inconsistent?
Replies: 11
Views: 609

Re: Google market charts internally inconsistent?

At the end of Feb, the chart says that one was $10.38, which is still slightly off from the reported YTD's 8.47% decrease, but only by a bit. If those are both closing values, but the YTD measures from the Jan open to the Feb close, I bet that would do it. The -8.47% "YTD return" seems to be from 1...
by #Cruncher
Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 9 Reasons Not to Tax Loss Harvest (WCI)
Replies: 50
Views: 4406

Re: 9 Reasons Not to Tax Loss Harvest (WCI)

From White Coat Investor 's 9 Reasons NOT to Tax-Loss Harvest referenced in the original post: # 9 You Might Get Burned by Volatility … I decided the easiest thing to do would be to exchange from the 500 Index Fund to the iShares Total Stock Market ETF. Unfortunately, ETFs trade in real-time, not at...
by #Cruncher
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS
Replies: 271
Views: 20722

Re: TIPS go Crazy!

Wow, what a difference 2 days can make. Even just one day! And it can look more dramatic when we look at price rather than yield. While short term TIPS prices didn't rise much today, prices of long term TIPS climbed significantly. For example, the Feb 2050 TIPS auctioned last month jumped 13.2% fro...
by #Cruncher
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone Considering Starting SS Benefits Earlier Than Originally Planned?
Replies: 8
Views: 617

Re: Anyone Considering Starting SS Benefits Earlier Than Originally Planned?

I'm 66, DW is 63, and we're both retired. … My plan had been to delay SS for both of us until 70 … However I'm wondering if it might now make sense to consider DW to start taking SS early ... Since I have the higher SS benefit I would still delay taking my SS until 70 … I of course realize that she...
by #Cruncher
Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How does TIPS Secondary Market work?
Replies: 8
Views: 438

Re: How does TIPS Secondary Market work?

So in theory, if there is deflation, the index ratio can get lower than 1.0589. And if I sell/matures with a lower index ratio, I will not get what I paid for (Estimated Total Cost:$1,041.51 - Accrued Interest:$0.56) back. It depends on how much deflation there is. If slight and you hold until matu...
by #Cruncher
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIP bond fund returns now (2020) and in 2008-09
Replies: 3
Views: 631

Re: TIP bond fund returns now (2020) and in 2008-09

Just as in 2008-09, TIPS funds have done more poorly than nominal treasury funds. There are two possible explanations that I can think of and I'd like to know if either or both explain this: Liquidity - ... Deflation - ... You're leaving out the most significant reason, CULater: lower inflation exp...
by #Cruncher
Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations
Replies: 61
Views: 5308

Re: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations

Breakeven inflation rates [as of Friday 3/13/2020] are quite low now. Here they are for four of the above TIPS versus today's yields of four nominal issues maturing on about the same date ... I've refined, expanded, and updated the breakeven calculation to cover 21 TIPS maturing from Jan 2021 to Fe...