Search found 338 matches

by jack1719
Thu Jun 09, 2011 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some thoughts about Pension and their reliability
Replies: 41
Views: 5769

Looks like from the most recent extensive pension study done in March/April of this year,that between the big stock markets gains of past 2 years(investment gains make up almost 70% of pension funding) and changes to brand new hires,that pension funds are looking a lot rosier now... PDF file of Coba...
by jack1719
Thu Jun 09, 2011 6:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Illinois pension vs. 457b, 403b
Replies: 24
Views: 5270

http://www.ncpers.org/Files/2011_06_ncp ... _study.pdf

Here is PDF file of one of the most recent & extensive Pension studies(done in March & April of 2011) ,it's pretty extensive & through,they did alot of homework.
by jack1719
Thu Jun 09, 2011 6:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seems like Pension funds have almost fully recovered losses
Replies: 27
Views: 4401

http://www.ncpers.org/Files/2011_06_ncp ... _study.pdf

Here is the PDF file of the whole Cobalt Pension study,it's pretty extensive & through,they did alot of homework.
by jack1719
Thu Jun 09, 2011 6:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross: Treasury investors will 'get cooked'
Replies: 35
Views: 4697

Bill Gross: Treasury investors will 'get cooked'

http://money.cnn.com/2011/06/08/markets/bill_gross_pimco_morningstar/index.htm?iid=HP_LN I guess the infection that has hit Europe,(mostly Greece right now)where two year rates have hit around 25% is only a matter of time before it hits USA,it not question of if,but when to him.. He pointed out that...
by jack1719
Wed Jun 08, 2011 7:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Illinois pension vs. 457b, 403b
Replies: 24
Views: 5270

http://capitolfax.com/2011/01/24/fitch-upgrades-illinois-rating/ Illonis was upgraded in Jan 2011 on its debt & pension outlook.. I am sure that 66% personal income tax increase(and 45% corporate increase) that passed helped alot..along with the big stock market gains of past two years,(almost 70% o...
by jack1719
Sun Jun 05, 2011 3:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seems like Pension funds have almost fully recovered losses
Replies: 27
Views: 4401

From study done above..(Pension)--Funds participating in the study reported a 20-year average return of 8.2 percent... That including two pretty bad bear markets over past 20 years(one basically a lost decade)...one of them worst year for equities in over 60 years.. I can see that repeated over next...
by jack1719
Thu Jun 02, 2011 5:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equal weight within portfolio
Replies: 47
Views: 4027

Its all because of risk..You cant put for example Mcd, Exxon or Apple defaulting or going out of business on the same scale as some small cap market company.. small companies just dont have the cash or resources that large caps do..as important as return is,it much easier for a small cap company to ...
by jack1719
Thu Jun 02, 2011 5:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Fed raises rates,gonna be magnetic shifting of poles..
Replies: 11
Views: 2816

To me 100 year corporate bonds just seems crazy..When you start getting these wild exotic products and things come out..Something is way off kilter..Kinda like the housing market in 2004-2005 when you had these crazy exotic kind of mortgages come out.. to me when that happens you have entered some k...
by jack1719
Tue May 31, 2011 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Fed raises rates,gonna be magnetic shifting of poles..
Replies: 11
Views: 2816

This is not about a wall of worry or what next catastrophe might happen,like if Greece defaults and it spreads for example..This is just talking about what happens when things come back to normal values,the fed keeping rates too low too long,we have seen in the past the bubbles it creates,if bubbles...
by jack1719
Mon May 30, 2011 4:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Fed raises rates,gonna be magnetic shifting of poles..
Replies: 11
Views: 2816

When Fed raises rates,gonna be magnetic shifting of poles..

You cant keep rates this low without cause and effect,and some consquences..The old saying everything we do has an equal and opposite reaction.. The longer the fed doesn't raise rates,the more resistence it builds up to it.. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Why-safe-corporate-bonds-apf-1701928262.html?...
by jack1719
Mon May 30, 2011 3:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I Don't Own Foreign Bond Funds
Replies: 85
Views: 11484

Re: Why I Don't Own Foreign Bond Funds

But that would be the same type of mistake that LTCM made. You're not including "Black Swan" events (rare, shocking events). LTCMs models only accounted for normal market events. Prior to 1998, no G8 country had ever defaulted on their debt. So when Russia defaulted, LTCM was blindsided, and their ...
by jack1719
Mon May 30, 2011 2:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Arizona Land Sells for 8% of Price Paid at Peak
Replies: 10
Views: 2347

99% of homeowners/investors who bought land and/or house at the peak (circa 2006) of the market is sorry they did..got burned big time
by jack1719
Sat May 28, 2011 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Precious Metals in Your Portfolio
Replies: 42
Views: 3871

I think it depends on where you are in your investing years..your age etc.. I think when your young,20s,30s even into 40's...equities should be front and center and bonds,gold etc..should be small part of portfolio..once you get within 10 years of retirement,I think the game changes and you switch t...
by jack1719
Sat May 28, 2011 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TPINX
Replies: 5
Views: 1349

Re: Pow wow

1. Is there a reason you need a foreign bonds fund? You can get VBTLX with 5.3% foreign, greater diversity and lower ER. 2. No it is not unethical. If you hire a tutor who gives you some good studying hacks that improve your test scores, it would not be unethical to continue to use those hacks afte...
by jack1719
Wed May 25, 2011 2:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pros and Cons of paying off mortgage..
Replies: 207
Views: 39624

I see your point. You assume that someone will continue saving the equivalent of the mortgage payments on a regular basis (I'd love to know how many people do that when they get a windfall or an inheritance?). Plus when you pay off a mortgage, you do save a bundle on the interest you didn't have to...
by jack1719
Tue May 24, 2011 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pros and Cons of paying off mortgage..
Replies: 207
Views: 39624

Banks are there to make money,they are not around to pay you 10% while you pay them 5%... Most banks now are paying 1% if your lucky,but mortgage rates are around 5%.. It was no different back in 1980,They might have been paying you 8%,but mortgage rates were up above 10%.. 200K in the bank and 200K...
by jack1719
Tue May 24, 2011 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pros and Cons of paying off mortgage..
Replies: 207
Views: 39624

From a sleep well at night/financial flexibility position - having $200k in the bank and $200k balance on your mortgage is always a better position to be in than having $0 in the bank and a paid off mortgage. ----------------------------------------------------- What if this was 1980 and mortgage ra...
by jack1719
Sun May 22, 2011 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Banks say they are not real owners,holders of MBS are..
Replies: 12
Views: 2148

Banks say they are not real owners,holders of MBS are..

Interesting how banks are justifing any obligations to the huge backlog of homes they own.. Banks name may be on property title,but the real owners, the banks say, are the holders of the mortgage-backed securities ----------------------------------- http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110522/ap_on_re_us/us...
by jack1719
Sun May 22, 2011 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Next Major Disaster Developing for Bond Holders&am
Replies: 9
Views: 1931

Well the infection in terms of bonds has not hit the USA yet,it certainly has hit Europe,and it cant seem to rid itself of the infection..Greece etc.. The question is when will what happened to Greece/Europe begin in USA? 5 years? its coming the question is not if but when..Look at rates/bonds in Gr...
by jack1719
Sun May 22, 2011 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Zweig: Own Government Bnds? Here's Why You Should Be Worried
Replies: 51
Views: 7365

It will never be cut for current retirees.....its gonna fall on the under 30 year olds to carry the big weight.. Cuts, no, but they can change the way COLA is calculated and/or how benefits are taxed. IOW, back-door methods to reduce system liabilities. Remember that a current retiree who is now 65...
by jack1719
Sun May 22, 2011 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seems like Pension funds have almost fully recovered losses
Replies: 27
Views: 4401

As they are balanced funds, they should have recovered. From 9/30/07, a quarter that ended very near the market high, Wellington and balanced index are up about 11% and target retirement 2020 and lifestrategy moderate are up 4 or 5%. Even Dodge and Cox balanced, which did particularly poorly in the...
by jack1719
Sat May 21, 2011 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Zweig: Own Government Bnds? Here's Why You Should Be Worried
Replies: 51
Views: 7365

I'm not as worried as some of these professionals. What I see happening in the long-term is the Federal government reneging on their Social Security and Medicare obligations. Future retirees (of which I am one) will get less, perhaps a bit less, in SS and Medicare benefits. Everyone knows (consciou...
by jack1719
Wed May 18, 2011 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: M* says REIT diversification benefit has gone away
Replies: 42
Views: 5576

When you says "diversification" to me I want something that will work when market is in bad tail spin.. 2008 to me seems like ultimate perfect example of what works in terms of diversification in a bad bear market... International equities,REITS,corporate bonds none of them worked or were places peo...
by jack1719
Mon May 16, 2011 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seems like Pension funds have almost fully recovered losses
Replies: 27
Views: 4401

Six states now have better credit rating/profile than Uncle sam...

The states seem to be getting act together...,Uncle sam? well that's another story..
by jack1719
Sat May 14, 2011 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 46% have negative equity in home, Twin Cities, Mn area
Replies: 37
Views: 4519

Its still all about supply and demand in housing,that is one of thy,if not the biggest,and you have so so many homes on the market and foreclosures still in the pipeline and still coming,and what about when banks finally work on the shadow inventory? way way too much on the supply side in housing a...
by jack1719
Sat May 14, 2011 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Illusion of Diversification
Replies: 16
Views: 3145

To me to be trully diversifed,all you have to do is look at 2008 as a prime example... 2008 is about the worst the market will throw at you,if your asking what will protect you in a bad bear market like that.. Corporate bonds,REITS,International equity......nope.... Gold and Treasuries are about the...
by jack1719
Thu May 12, 2011 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 46% have negative equity in home, Twin Cities, Mn area
Replies: 37
Views: 4519

They're raising the rents by 2% on 1- year leases around here. Supply and demand at play again..... Because all those people that get foreclosured on have to live someplace..You have might have a HUGE glut of homes on the market,but all those former homeowners have turned into renters and driven re...
by jack1719
Wed May 11, 2011 2:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 46% have negative equity in home, Twin Cities, Mn area
Replies: 37
Views: 4519

Its still all about supply and demand in housing,that is one of thy,if not the biggest,and you have so so many homes on the market and foreclosures still in the pipeline and still coming,and what about when banks finally work on the shadow inventory? way way too much on the supply side in housing an...
by jack1719
Tue May 10, 2011 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 46% have negative equity in home, Twin Cities, Mn area
Replies: 37
Views: 4519

I dont think there is any more argument,housing is in a "double dip"... This housing downturn I think still has a few years to go,I think it will be a slow downward trend over next few years...housing down -4% rest of this year,proboly about -5% next year(2012) and proboly another -3% in 2013..about...
by jack1719
Sat May 07, 2011 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Silver-Mad Small Investors Fueled an Epic Rise and Fall
Replies: 36
Views: 5957

Heard mentality is all the same......look at the huge housing bubble 5 years ago and all the sheep that went just head first into HUGE mortgages..

Bubbles have been around for centuries.and there will continue to be people fooled and taken by them :)
by jack1719
Fri May 06, 2011 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 668
Views: 155777

How many young people in the mid to late 90's,could sit on there hands and accept 1% and 2% gains for 4 or 5 years,while stocks are posting 20% gains... First off, you are seriously understating the PP performance in the late 90's. From 1995-99, it returned about 9% per year, not far from the histo...
by jack1719
Mon May 02, 2011 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 668
Views: 155777

I like the concept of permenant portfolio..but I think its conservative allocation that is more geared toward someone in retirement or close to retirement(within 10 years of retirement) If you look at PP in the mid to late 90's..when the stock market was booming,you had returns of 1%,2% etc..while t...
by jack1719
Mon May 02, 2011 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seems like Pension funds have almost fully recovered losses
Replies: 27
Views: 4401

http://www.pewcenteronthestates.org/uploadedFiles/Pew_pensions_retiree_benefits.pdf The thing about Pew center data is that its 2 years old(fiscal year 2009-which began for most states in July 2008),it is from the height of the market downturn,it does not show the very strong market gains of the pa...
by jack1719
Mon May 02, 2011 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seems like Pension funds have almost fully recovered losses
Replies: 27
Views: 4401

Re: Seems like Pension funds have almost fully recovered los

I was looking at pre-2008 pension fund levels and comparing to latest Jan 2011 numbers.. Calipers before the 2008 crash had $260 Billion pension fund..it fell down to $160 Billion at the worst of the market crash..as of Jan 1,2011 it had $222 Billion..if you take into account the markets roughly 8%...
by jack1719
Sun May 01, 2011 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seems like Pension funds have almost fully recovered losses
Replies: 27
Views: 4401

the fact that the market is up is obviously helpful but Probably no pension funds are much more than 60% in stocks States may not be making the appropriate annual contribution because of the well-known financial problems at the state level. ----------------------------------------------------------...
by jack1719
Fri Apr 29, 2011 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seems like Pension funds have almost fully recovered losses
Replies: 27
Views: 4401

I will say healthcare obligations is another story,I got nothing good for the shortfall in that from the numbers I ran..
by jack1719
Fri Apr 29, 2011 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seems like Pension funds have almost fully recovered losses
Replies: 27
Views: 4401

The thing is alot of the numbers they site are fiscal year 2009,which began in July 2008..at the very height of the market downturn.. average pension is up 35% from that moment to Jan 1,2011..(market is up another 8% in 2011) This has been an amazing two years for market returns,I really cant expect...
by jack1719
Fri Apr 29, 2011 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seems like Pension funds have almost fully recovered losses
Replies: 27
Views: 4401

The biggest change is the in and out part..it seems alot of states have changed the age to collect from 55 to 62 for brand new workers..hired in the past year or two and for the future unborn workers.... That seems to make the biggest impact in my numbers 15 or 20 years from now on the in and out pa...
by jack1719
Fri Apr 29, 2011 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seems like Pension funds have almost fully recovered losses
Replies: 27
Views: 4401

Federal Reserve data shows that at the end of 2010, state and local pension funds had a total of $2.93 trillion in assets, up 35% from their low point in early 2009, according to a report published this month by the National Association of State Retirement Administrators..
by jack1719
Fri Apr 29, 2011 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seems like Pension funds have almost fully recovered losses
Replies: 27
Views: 4401

Seems like Pension funds have almost fully recovered losses

I was looking at pre-2008 pension fund levels and comparing to latest Jan 2011 numbers.. Calipers before the 2008 crash had $260 Billion pension fund..it fell down to $160 Billion at the worst of the market crash..as of Jan 1,2011 it had $222 Billion..if you take into account the markets roughly 8% ...
by jack1719
Thu Apr 28, 2011 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Fund of the Decade"
Replies: 26
Views: 6162

Mr. Larimore, Thank you for the update and good information. Once again, we are reminded that we should stay the course, diversify, and lower costs. The FAIRX fund's expense ratio is 1.00%, and it is not exactly well-diversified, with over half of its assets held in 8 stocks. Morningstar chart for ...
by jack1719
Tue Apr 26, 2011 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the market going up?
Replies: 126
Views: 14880

I think alot of the reason is the extremely low rates...people have a very hard time accepting less than 1% return on there money,which is what CDs,money markets etc..are paying right now..people figure its worth the risk to buy stocks/equities and have a chance at better returns.. 5% CD rates as op...
by jack1719
Thu Apr 21, 2011 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some thoughts about Pension and their reliability
Replies: 41
Views: 5769

At Wagnerjb's level of seniority and time with employer, I suspect the PBGC guarantees are not enough-- I am not seeking to draw him on that, but he is like an airline pilot-- most of those did not do well out of the PBGC. Yes, I would be well above the PBGC guarantee level. But even if I wasn't, t...
by jack1719
Wed Apr 20, 2011 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some thoughts about Pension and their reliability
Replies: 41
Views: 5769

The thing is with any of the goverment insurance protections(PGBC,FDIC,SIPC is to stay within the protected area and guidelines of each..

500K for SIPC,250K for FDIC and I believe 54K a year for PGBC-which is generally increased yearly based on SS increases..
by jack1719
Wed Apr 20, 2011 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some thoughts about Pension and their reliability
Replies: 41
Views: 5769

http://money.cnn.com/2011/04/20/pf/ponzi_scheme_victims_retirement/index.htm Retired bus drivers lose everything in Ponzi scheme Perfect example of exactly what I was saying last week up above in posts in CNN money today,retired bus drivers toke money out of something with "Goverment insurance prote...
by jack1719
Wed Apr 20, 2011 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retired bus drivers lose everything in Ponzi scheme,question
Replies: 8
Views: 2864

Retired bus drivers lose everything in Ponzi scheme,question

http://money.cnn.com/2011/04/20/pf/ponzi_scheme_victims_retirement/index.htm In the case of Madoff's scheme, victims got compensation from the Securities Investor Protection Corp., an insurance fund financed by brokerage firms that covers up to $500,000 in losses for individual investors. But SIPC f...
by jack1719
Sun Apr 17, 2011 2:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All indivudual stocks have same expected return as the TSM?
Replies: 15
Views: 2239

What is the "expected" return of an individual stock one holds over the long term?Long term as in ones total investing life.. I wonder what most people buying a stock would answer as their expected return over that period?9%?10%? If thats the case,and most people would answer that return,its really ...
by jack1719
Sun Apr 17, 2011 2:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All indivudual stocks have same expected return as the TSM?
Replies: 15
Views: 2239

All indivudual stocks have same expected return as the TSM?

Index Funds Advisors president Mark Hebner......... http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/not-only-peter-lynch-wrong-stocks-general-bad-20110413-050251-817.html He says stock picking, in general, is an all around bad bet. No Risk-Return Premium Investing in individual stocks is much riskier th...
by jack1719
Fri Apr 15, 2011 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lenny Dykstra is back in business!
Replies: 37
Views: 7630

http://www.cnn.com/2011/CRIME/04/15/california.dykstra.fraud/index.html?hpt=T2 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Dykstra, 48, was in jail Friday on an unrelated grand theft auto charge after being arrested Thursday night by Los Angeles Police. The former member of a ...
by jack1719
Tue Apr 12, 2011 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some thoughts about Pension and their reliability
Replies: 41
Views: 5769

I've seen 1 go belly up. Longshoremans union, in BOS. The administrators left the country to elute prosecution. Like anything.......I'd bet there are plenty of these smaller DBs pensions that left its "constituents" screwed. I've a friend that worked 35yrs for GM, he to had DBP promises cut. Anothe...