Search found 320 matches

by bb
Fri Nov 27, 2009 1:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Contribute after-tax dollars to 401k and Traditional IRA?
Replies: 10
Views: 4035

Can't after tax contributions to a 401k make sense
to increase the amount of fixed income that can be held in a
deferred account?

(assumes desired fixed allocation can't
be held in a tax deferred account)
by bb
Sun Nov 08, 2009 11:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: fixing bond allocation when interest rates are low
Replies: 3
Views: 1527

fixing bond allocation when interest rates are low

Is it sensible to fix a significant asset allocation problem (cash to bonds)
in an environment of low interest rates? Even if it is and I still don't want
to over what time frame might provide some protection from losses ?
by bb
Mon Sep 14, 2009 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: psychology, portfolio size, risk
Replies: 51
Views: 6519

I guess the point I was specifically trying to bring up was even if you are a long way from retirement (10-15 yrs) = ability to take risk, feel a need to take risk, and at least in theory have a willingness to take risk for people who have a high savings rate presumably at some point portfolio size ...
by bb
Sat Sep 12, 2009 9:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: psychology, portfolio size, risk
Replies: 51
Views: 6519

It does for some, but others don't seem to recognize the risk. It could be argued that a person in the situation you describe does not really have the financial ability to take that much risk. I am not sure that statement makes sense. If the time horizon is long enough and the belief is that the ma...
by bb
Sat Sep 12, 2009 8:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: psychology, portfolio size, risk
Replies: 51
Views: 6519

psychology, portfolio size, risk

Several threads have addressed risk in terms of need and willingness. This all sounds great in theory. My question deals with the psychology of risk. For example let's say you save $30k/yr, portfolio size grows to $1M, and you are many years from retirement so feel a need and willingness to take ris...
by bb
Mon Jul 27, 2009 8:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hotel Recommendation in D.C.?
Replies: 36
Views: 5057

The first couple times I went to DC I stayed in Rockville, MD. Train station was convenient, lots of restaurants, etc. The last couple of times I stayed in DC around Dupont Circle. The area is nice, lots of people walking around, lots of restaurants and the subway stop was close by. I definitely lik...
by bb
Thu Jul 16, 2009 10:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Going to NYC in October
Replies: 86
Views: 11945

I am going to put a plug in for Carnegie Deli for a corned beef sandwich
or pastrami and the cheese cake. It is expensive, lots of tourist, and sandwiches are so big you have to split one and they charge you to
split but I dare you to find a place with better versions of the aformentioned.
by bb
Sun Jun 14, 2009 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taxable S&P 500 Index linked CD
Replies: 13
Views: 3570

It is being offered by HSBC bank USA. No discussion of insurance. The min return is 0%. The actual return will be: 0% or average of S&P500 index closing price taken 4 times per year every year over the 6 yr term whichever is greater.. For example, to simplify, lets say the start value if 100, ea...
by bb
Sun Jun 14, 2009 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taxable S&P 500 Index linked CD
Replies: 13
Views: 3570

Appreciate comment. Although I am not 100% I did not
see the word annuity anywhere in the document. This
is a taxable CD. I thought annuities were tax deferred.
I admit whether it is or is not an annuity may be
immaterial.
by bb
Sun Jun 14, 2009 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taxable S&P 500 Index linked CD
Replies: 13
Views: 3570

Taxable S&P 500 Index linked CD

Someone I know asked my my opinion of an S&P 500 Index linked CD. Brief overview: taxable, 6 yr term return amt is variable (min 0%, average of 4 quarterly snapshots of index per year over term to determine return). No dividends contribute to return early redemption no guarantee of return of pri...
by bb
Fri Apr 10, 2009 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I respect Warren Buffet but ...
Replies: 13
Views: 3039

I guess the primary question I was getting at does anyone else watch these interviews and wonder why when you presumably have one of the smarter investors around why the interviews seem basically free of content? It's like having the president over for dinner and talking about the weather.
by bb
Thu Apr 09, 2009 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I respect Warren Buffet but ...
Replies: 13
Views: 3039

I respect Warren Buffet but ...

I respect Warren Buffet. He seems like a person with a lot of integrity. That being said in interviews I have seen (CNBC) he basically says don't worry, things will be ok, investing in equities is a good thing, this is the greatest county, sure we are going to have to help out people who made bad de...
by bb
Tue Apr 07, 2009 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 25 Year Stock Recovery Myth: Answering the Wrong Question?
Replies: 6
Views: 1567

At some point presumably your account balance will be large relative
to new contributions. I assume most people would be interested in
knowing how this performs over time.
by bb
Tue Mar 10, 2009 7:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: tactical asset allocation - market timing
Replies: 34
Views: 5677

maxwellthedog - thank you. I think I have been trying to formulate
arguments along these lines. Thanks to others as well.
by bb
Mon Mar 09, 2009 9:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: adrian - question about tolerable loss rule
Replies: 10
Views: 2242

I don't think it is valid to state: "One does not derive an AA from psychological tolerance." That might not be how some people do it. Do you really think people don't think about the possibility of loss when setting the AA? The potential for loss is a significant aspect of risk, and risk ...
by bb
Mon Mar 09, 2009 8:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: adrian - question about tolerable loss rule
Replies: 10
Views: 2242

Not being aware of my bias I have always interpreted the guidelines for tolerable loss to be psychological threshold. I understand there are other reasons why this threshold may be established. (My personal situation is I am in the accumulation stage and I don't have a need to sell but I would like ...
by bb
Mon Mar 09, 2009 7:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: adrian - question about tolerable loss rule
Replies: 10
Views: 2242

adrian - question about tolerable loss rule

Adrian, This is meant to be a serious question. If we really used your rule to figure out our stock allocations now that we have suffered the maximum tolerable loss are we to: sell all equities because our tolerable loss has been met sell all money in equities that we cannot stand another 50% loss o...
by bb
Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: tactical asset allocation - market timing
Replies: 34
Views: 5677

Well I think when I speak about the probability of a x% decline I am indeed referring to std deviation. When I say what is the probability of a x% decline given that we have already experienced an y% decline I assume can be answered by probability. Is another x% decline going to be another outcome o...
by bb
Mon Mar 09, 2009 9:25 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Bad links in Wiki
Replies: 2
Views: 1779

Bad links in Wiki

I recently went to a few of the links under Bogleheads Forum Index -> Reference Library and Wiki -> Table of Contents and under III. Asset Allocation Several of the links did not work for example 1. Bill Schultheis: The 3 Principles of Investing link: here Is this something that is maintained and I ...
by bb
Mon Mar 09, 2009 9:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: tactical asset allocation - market timing
Replies: 34
Views: 5677

Why is it valid to look at past stock market performance to determine volatility (standard deviation) but not valid to look at previous bear markets to place odds on a x% decline given a y% decline. If the stock market is nothing like rolling dice then why do we even talk about measures such as stan...
by bb
Sun Mar 08, 2009 10:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: tactical asset allocation - market timing
Replies: 34
Views: 5677

Granted I am a slow study here. Why can't one use historical bear markets
to state the probability of a 50% decline is less now that we have actually
had a 55% decline.
by bb
Sun Mar 08, 2009 10:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: tactical asset allocation - market timing
Replies: 34
Views: 5677

I assume there are odds of a bear market, odds of a 50% decline and odds of a 75% decline with odds of the 75% decline being less. I am not saying I am correct - just what my intuition is. Given that my intuition is often wrong that is why I am asking. On a similar note everyone here talks about wil...
by bb
Sat Mar 07, 2009 11:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: tactical asset allocation - market timing
Replies: 34
Views: 5677

On the one hand I understand there is a lot of fear in the market and I guess I understand there is increased risk due to the financial meltdown and no one knowing which company is going to fold next. On the other hand we are in the 2'nd worst bear market of all time. Is it not fair to say the risk ...
by bb
Sat Mar 07, 2009 10:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: tactical asset allocation - market timing
Replies: 34
Views: 5677

tactical asset allocation - market timing

Is anyone tempted to overweight stocks based on current valuations?

Are stocks less risky now?

How could it not increase returns by overweight stocks now
and then sell when the market reaches its previous high?

To what extent should market valuations be factored into asset
allocation
by bb
Fri Mar 06, 2009 9:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: opinions on rebalancing strategies
Replies: 7
Views: 1813

presumably I have 15+ yrs to retirement. If the equity market goes no where for a while it will take me several years to get back to my target AA. I guess the real rub here is with the market on its butt I am somewhat motivated to get my AA back in line to take advantage of the "sale" but ...
by bb
Thu Mar 05, 2009 7:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: opinions on rebalancing strategies
Replies: 7
Views: 1813

opinions on rebalancing strategies

Given the sell off in the market my AA is needless to say not what it used to be. I want to fix this but I am a little reluctant to do all at once. What are some various options with some rationale behind them for fixing large disparities in AA along the lines of dollar cost averaging. Over what tim...
by bb
Thu Jan 29, 2009 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Phil on Social Security
Replies: 49
Views: 7264

Well let's see - there is no social security fund and current
payouts come from new money inflows. Nah - nothing
like a ponzi scheme.
by bb
Tue Jan 27, 2009 11:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Warren Buffett Advice
Replies: 4
Views: 1599

They left out the part about Warren Buffet thinking most people
would be better off owning an index fund.
by bb
Wed Jan 21, 2009 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient Portfolio Size to Begin Slice and Dice
Replies: 8
Views: 1925

I don't want to hijack the thread. I think it is at least worth
stating that although there may be a minimum size portfolio
that makes S&D practical there is not universal agreement
on the need to S&D regardless of portfolio size.
by bb
Sun Jan 11, 2009 6:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: fixing asset location problem
Replies: 20
Views: 2728

Can anyone help explain why this is not a market timing issue ?
I don't see what the significance that I still owe tax on tax
deferred money. As the OP I certainly thought it was a
market timing question. Hmm ...

I understand if thread fatigue has set in at this point :|
by bb
Sun Jan 11, 2009 3:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: fixing asset location problem
Replies: 20
Views: 2728

I will freely admit my logic is based on market timing. I've had the wrong asset location situation for a long time. Given that a significant move up in the market is not uncommon after a bear market gives me reluctance to fix the asset location problem now. If the market does not do this in the nex...
by bb
Sun Jan 11, 2009 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: fixing asset location problem
Replies: 20
Views: 2728

My particulars are: 15-20 yrs to retirement New taxable savings outpaces tax deferred by 2:1. I see taxable savings rate at least equaling tax deferred for several years but that could change. Since I have a long time horizon that is why I am thinking it might be best to wait for equities to recover.
by bb
Sun Jan 11, 2009 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: fixing asset location problem
Replies: 20
Views: 2728

Lets say before the market crashed I had 30% in tax deferred and 70% taxable. Tax deferred was 100% equities. Now the market has crashed and tax deferred is down to 20%. In general I am going to want greater than 20% fixed allocation. So if I wait for the market to rebound back to having 30% tax def...
by bb
Sun Jan 11, 2009 10:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: fixing asset location problem
Replies: 20
Views: 2728

fixing asset location problem

I came late to the asset location discussion. As such all of my fixed income is in taxable and tax deferred is 100% equity. At some point I would like to fix this however given the large market drop think it would be better to wait several years for the market to recover so in the long run will be a...
by bb
Sun Dec 21, 2008 10:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to sell a block of stock
Replies: 0
Views: 747

How to sell a block of stock

Just wondered if there are any tips on selling a block of stock. Is there a quantity of stock that a simple market or limit order all done at 1 time would not suffice say for a company in the S&P500? I assume if a stock has a volume of several million trades per day any kind of trading that an i...
by bb
Sat Nov 22, 2008 8:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Larry, et al: Value in Municipals?
Replies: 31
Views: 7226

Larry, Others, I am familiar with the arguments for slice and dice on equities vs just "owning the whole market" via the total stock market index. Is your recommendation for only needing TIPS and munis the equivalent of slice and dice for equities? Why don't you recommend just buying the t...
by bb
Sat Nov 15, 2008 6:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: sell individual stock and buy total stock index
Replies: 5
Views: 2047

I guess I was looking for validation on the particular argument with regards to timing and price corralation. Scenario I: ------------- IBM stock had some particular bad event, price fell, market did not. Scenario II: -------------- IBM stock went down but so did the entire market. Since the situati...
by bb
Sat Nov 15, 2008 2:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: sell individual stock and buy total stock index
Replies: 5
Views: 2047

sell individual stock and buy total stock index

For a long time I have wanted to sell IBM stock but could not seem to forget the 2000 high price so held on. Now the entire market has tanked and of coarse IBM right along with it. I figure it would be ok to sell and buy into total stock at this time. Although I will be selling low I will also be bu...
by bb
Sun Oct 19, 2008 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 17 years of returns: sobering (updated OP)
Replies: 123
Views: 26928

How did you figure out your personal rate of return including distributions
for say the S&P 500 fund? I see historical price data on yahoo but don't
see how given a series of investments at different times to get to a
personal rate of return?
by bb
Wed Oct 15, 2008 7:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New MIT graduates choosing finance careers
Replies: 69
Views: 13055

I have listened to several people bemoan the fact that the best minds are going to finance as opposed to other fields. I have generally had an issue with the line of reasoning - unless the system is rigged value in a free market should be awarded accordingly. Given what has happened to the financial...
by bb
Sun Oct 12, 2008 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: would an efficient market drop 45% ?
Replies: 63
Views: 9608

would an efficient market drop 45% ?

There seems to be something very unsatisfying with the belief that the market is efficient yet in short order is driven up or down 45%. Somehow this does not seem to be a concept that has a lot of utility. If the market is down 45% when I need the money I am in world of hurt. Since most of us are go...
by bb
Thu Jul 17, 2008 10:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best steak marinade
Replies: 52
Views: 11546

No marinade. Salt, pepper. Nice char and then top with melted
garlic butter after it comes off the grill.
by bb
Tue Jul 15, 2008 7:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: totten trust "payable on death" to increase accoun
Replies: 3
Views: 1431

I guess my real question is these accounts seem as easy to setup as a regular account. When I hear the word "trust" I generally think complicated and expensive to set up. So is this form of account ownership as straight foreward as it seems and why do you suppose accounts held this way don...
by bb
Mon Jul 14, 2008 10:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: totten trust "payable on death" to increase accoun
Replies: 3
Views: 1431

totten trust "payable on death" to increase accoun

I read through my credit union's brochure on account insurance and it
said accounts held as a totten trust, or payable on death account is
insured up to $100K per named beneficiery. Any reason these are
a bad idea? Anyone here using this form of account ownership?
by bb
Thu Jul 10, 2008 10:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Property Foreclosures
Replies: 18
Views: 4283

I went to a local foreclosure sale. The house sold in 2001 for about 58K, then a few years later for 84K, then went into foreclosure. The banks bid for the house was something like 58K or 68K. The bank then auctioned the house and got 105K. I am not so sure the person who bought it knew what they we...
by bb
Thu Jul 10, 2008 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge Fund Millions Reduced to Nothing
Replies: 30
Views: 7300

If the total stock market index gets wiped out then the place I am currently employed would not exist and the bank I would have my money in instead of the total stock market index fund would be wiped out. I don't think I want to try to plan a contingency for this scenario.
by bb
Mon Jun 23, 2008 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate (the real real, not a REIT)
Replies: 44
Views: 8301

Woudn't it be fair to say the expected return of real estate
(as an asset class) should be expected to fall somewhere
between the return of bonds and the return of stocks?
by bb
Sat Jun 21, 2008 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 8 Reasons you should not expect an inheritance
Replies: 10
Views: 2934

Did anyone else find it odd to say that health care costs could approach
$1M. If 90-95% of people don't have $1M total in retirement funds it
seems unlikely the average health care tab is going to run $1M. The
majority of the people can't spend money they are never going to have.

Brian
by bb
Thu Jun 12, 2008 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why is it bad if hedge fund managers make a lot of money
Replies: 23
Views: 4478

I understand everyday people can be paying more in fees for a mutual fund that may not do better than an index fund. I have always felt there must be more to it than that when it comes to hedge funds due to the enormous profits being made by the managers and the very narrow slice of the population t...
by bb
Wed Jun 11, 2008 6:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why is it bad if hedge fund managers make a lot of money
Replies: 23
Views: 4478

Why in our current capitalistic system are the largest rewards
going to hedge fund managers if they provide poor value?