Search found 2336 matches

by Marseille07
Sun Feb 28, 2021 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in free fall
Replies: 583
Views: 43654

Re: Bonds in free fall

Sure, though the point is yield curve tends to be upward sloping. Inverted yield curve can happen but hoping for one isn't a good strategy. Why did you bring up CDs, then? There is no Treasury-CD yield curve, and it's entirely possible to have an upward-sloping yield curve with 10-year rates at 0.1...
by Marseille07
Sun Feb 28, 2021 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in free fall
Replies: 583
Views: 43654

Re: Bonds in free fall

Why can’t they go to 0.1% from 0.5% old low? That is a 80% drop I think Market is predicting the rise to continue yield curve per my limited understanding - but not sure how good that prediction is Why would you only demand 0.1% for 10Y when you can borrow short-term for the same rate? Even 5-year ...
by Marseille07
Sun Feb 28, 2021 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in free fall
Replies: 583
Views: 43654

Re: Bonds in free fall

Why would you only demand 0.1% for 10Y when you can borrow short-term for the same rate? Even 5-year CDs are offering 1% today. The customers for 10-year Treasury bonds and 5-year CDs are completely separate groups. If you're in the market for $100 million in safe liquid assets, CDs don't work. Sur...
by Marseille07
Sun Feb 28, 2021 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in free fall
Replies: 583
Views: 43654

Re: Bonds in free fall

Why can’t they go to 0.1% from 0.5% old low? That is a 80% drop I think Market is predicting the rise to continue yield curve per my limited understanding - but not sure how good that prediction is Why would you only demand 0.1% for 10Y when you can borrow short-term for the same rate? Even 5-year ...
by Marseille07
Sun Feb 28, 2021 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in free fall
Replies: 583
Views: 43654

Re: Bonds in free fall

Institutions are probably re-running their portfolio optimizers to see what happens if stock-bond correlation flip positive. They have flipped positive recently Does "recently" mean 40 years ago? I heard that there was a multi-decade uptrend in both stocks and bonds starting in the early ...
by Marseille07
Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: free script execution environment?
Replies: 9
Views: 632

Re: free script execution environment?

AWS for me. I have a small instance and paying $5/mo, not complaining about that.
by Marseille07
Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 8015
Views: 783045

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Here's a fun thought, what could cause HFEA to break in the future? Or, further, when it breaks, will it be obvious in hindsight? For example, during 2007, people were predicting 200$/bl oil, insane gas prices, peak oil talks etc. Well, a little while later oil went negative. What back then was so ...
by Marseille07
Sat Feb 27, 2021 4:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Too High to Buy?
Replies: 51
Views: 5863

Re: Too High to Buy?

Right now, about 63% of my portfolio is in cash or cash-like investments (CD's, money markets) and also Treasuries. 37% is in stocks and mutual funds. Maybe a little too safe for someone 60 years old? The key is to stick with something. If you're doing 100 - age, that's fine. If you feel that's too...
by Marseille07
Sat Feb 27, 2021 3:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: MVNO on Verizon network...moving away from Ting
Replies: 53
Views: 4426

Re: MVNO on Verizon network...moving away from Ting

Just finished swapping the SIM. The website said transferring my number can take a business day but it actually completed within 15 minutes over the weekend.

Calling, texting, data all working just fine. Looking forward to using Ting on Verizon.
by Marseille07
Sat Feb 27, 2021 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: renting without an in-person showing
Replies: 19
Views: 997

Re: renting without an in-person showing

One option could be to put a deposit down remotely, assuming you like what you see virtually, and then see it in person before actually signing the lease. That way, if there are any nasty surprises you can at least back out, even though it might cause a little short term inconvenience. The problem ...
by Marseille07
Sat Feb 27, 2021 1:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: California DMV Registration Removal
Replies: 83
Views: 6179

Re: California DMV Registration Removal

I just received a" notice of intent to suspend "stating I do not have any insurance coverage and my registration will be suspended. After countless hours of getting through with DMV, here is the information I received. 1. Send a copy of your registration from your new State ( for me, It's...
by Marseille07
Sat Feb 27, 2021 1:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: renting without an in-person showing
Replies: 19
Views: 997

Re: renting without an in-person showing

In some cities there are lots and lots of scam listings, I wouldn't trust that the house/apartment was really for rent without a showing. I've moved cross country 3 times and while it's a pain especially during COVID times, flying out for a weekend and cramming in as many viewings as possible is wh...
by Marseille07
Sat Feb 27, 2021 11:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: renting without an in-person showing
Replies: 19
Views: 997

Re: renting without an in-person showing

I don't think I'd do it, and strongly agree with the other person about pet odors/smoking issues. We did a walk-through with one of our sons. There were things we didn't notice even with the walk-through, like sticky stuff in the carpet, oven door which was coming apart, etc. They gave us paperwork...
by Marseille07
Sat Feb 27, 2021 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: renting without an in-person showing
Replies: 19
Views: 997

Re: renting without an in-person showing

I rolled the dice and did this. They had some youtube video of the unit and a 3-D virtual tour thing, that's it. I didn't fly in to take a look around.

So far so good, super quiet as I hoped it would be. I don't like the climate but that's a different issue.
by Marseille07
Sat Feb 27, 2021 12:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: MVNO on Verizon network...moving away from Ting
Replies: 53
Views: 4426

Re: MVNO on Verizon network...moving away from Ting

Going to try the port-out PIN that I think I have. Hopefully it'll work.
by Marseille07
Fri Feb 26, 2021 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22408
Views: 2964905

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Bought it at $86.87, sold it at $91.67. All in all, 5.5% return for 1 day holding ain't bad and better than holding a 5yr treasury to term. :twisted: Yeah, it's trading and no investing, and yeah it's more luck and etc. :beer At least i'm betting on GME. Nicely done :beer I don't understand what's ...
by Marseille07
Fri Feb 26, 2021 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in free fall
Replies: 583
Views: 43654

Re: Bonds in free fall

Tigermoose wrote: Fri Feb 26, 2021 11:07 am Maybe he’s asking when the Fed is going to practice YCC in order to keep rates from going too high out of a concern of causing an economic crash.
Is 1.5% for 10Y too high though? I'd argue 0.5% was too low.
by Marseille07
Fri Feb 26, 2021 1:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 8015
Views: 783045

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

"it's hard not to look for some sort of hedge at the moment." Congrats for your track record. Check out 55% UPRO, 25% TMF, 20% FAS. Underperforms HFEA in dropping rates, outperforms in rising rates. Which one is likeky going forward? Even looking back, better CAGR 2010 to today, deeper dr...
by Marseille07
Fri Feb 26, 2021 1:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22408
Views: 2964905

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

My bad, yes. Bonds will serve as good ballast, but we'll have days like today where the yields rising would nullify the ballast effect and equities & bonds go down at the same time. So far my only defense is to go with STTs or ITTs, still looking for ideas. Here are a few: cash, metals, commodi...
by Marseille07
Fri Feb 26, 2021 12:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22408
Views: 2964905

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

My bad, yes. Bonds will serve as good ballast, but we'll have days like today where the yields rising would nullify the ballast effect and equities & bonds go down at the same time. So far my only defense is to go with STTs or ITTs, still looking for ideas. Here are a few: cash, metals, commodi...
by Marseille07
Fri Feb 26, 2021 12:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22408
Views: 2964905

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Quite true. Inflation is the long-term threat to nominal bonds. But it's undeniable that bonds have had a big tailwind since the early 1980s, and that tailwind is unlikely to keep blowing. Even if it doesn't turn into a headwind, it's going to result in bonds not doing as well as they've done for t...
by Marseille07
Fri Feb 26, 2021 12:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22408
Views: 2964905

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Quite true. Inflation is the long-term threat to nominal bonds. But it's undeniable that bonds have had a big tailwind since the early 1980s, and that tailwind is unlikely to keep blowing. Even if it doesn't turn into a headwind, it's going to result in bonds not doing as well as they've done for t...
by Marseille07
Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22408
Views: 2964905

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

3541.35 would be our correction territory. Still seems far but the midpoint approaching very rapidly at this rate.
by Marseille07
Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: MVNO on Verizon network...moving away from Ting
Replies: 53
Views: 4426

Re: MVNO on Verizon network...moving away from Ting

I ordered a V1 SIM via Ting. They don't seem to charge me anything and I hope I can still back out if I need. Canceling my existing plan seems a bit fuzzy, some say Ting will do that some say don't count on them and do it yourself.
by Marseille07
Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An even better adventure
Replies: 29
Views: 2707

Re: An even better adventure

I looked up TQQQ and found out that it didn't exist in the year 2000. If it was around that year, I wonder how it would had fared. You can simulate leverage on an asset in Portfolio Visualizer by going negative some other asset, it's not quite the same because it doesn't support daily rebalancing, ...
by Marseille07
Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22408
Views: 2964905

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I think my 401K purchase is happening soon, this drop is good for that at least.
by Marseille07
Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22408
Views: 2964905

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

We're still assessing if we're out of a recession or not: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_recession. Things like this take years to finally coming to a consensus.
by Marseille07
Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22408
Views: 2964905

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

You said "time in the market is more important than timing the market," yet you hold cash waiting for lower prices to invest. Don't you see the hypocrisy? Call it whatever you want (DCA, rising glidepath). It doesn't change the fact that you purposely have your money in the market less ti...
by Marseille07
Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An even better adventure
Replies: 29
Views: 2707

Re: An even better adventure

averagedude wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:53 pm I looked up TQQQ and found out that it didn't exist in the year 2000. If it was around that year, I wonder how it would had fared.
-100%.
by Marseille07
Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22408
Views: 2964905

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Time in the market is more important than timing the market. Lol. The varying balance EF, ever-changing IPS and DCA on minus half a percent days is dizzying. This mental accounting makes my head hurt. :oops: A dip today is a better value than a high a few weeks prior. Never mind that it's the name ...
by Marseille07
Thu Feb 25, 2021 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22408
Views: 2964905

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Triple digit golfer wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 8:25 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 8:22 pm SPX futures actually turned green.
Then here comes another red day tomorrow.
Totally possible, since we seem to be yields driven these days.
by Marseille07
Thu Feb 25, 2021 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22408
Views: 2964905

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

SPX futures actually turned green.
by Marseille07
Thu Feb 25, 2021 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22408
Views: 2964905

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

jarjarM wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 7:31 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 7:30 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 7:27 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 7:24 pm Time in the market is more important than timing the market.
Aren't you DCAing?
Ahem, this is called equity rising glidepath + a bond tent, discussed by Kitce.
Got it :wink:
Whoa, his name is actually Kitces. I need to spell correctly.
by Marseille07
Thu Feb 25, 2021 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22408
Views: 2964905

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

jarjarM wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 7:27 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 7:24 pm Time in the market is more important than timing the market.
Aren't you DCAing?
Ahem, this is called equity rising glidepath + a bond tent, discussed by Kitce.
by Marseille07
Thu Feb 25, 2021 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22408
Views: 2964905

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Anyone buy "discounted" stocks today? Tempting to get into AAPL and NIO for long term but who know's how far they'll drop. If this is just a correction fine but if not :shock: 2000 shares of TQQQ, YOLO :P :twisted: Wait I could've sworn someone bought 2000 shares of TQQQ earlier this week...
by Marseille07
Thu Feb 25, 2021 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22408
Views: 2964905

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

jarjarM wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 6:43 pm
invester123 wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 6:22 pm Anyone buy "discounted" stocks today? Tempting to get into AAPL and NIO for long term but who know's how far they'll drop. If this is just a correction fine but if not :shock:
2000 shares of TQQQ, YOLO :P :twisted:
You're crazy man. Do you have an exit plan?
by Marseille07
Thu Feb 25, 2021 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An even better adventure
Replies: 29
Views: 2707

Re: An even better adventure

TQQQ works great on sunny days but hurts bigly on a day like this when it went -10%. It's even more pronounced if we hit something like 2008 or the dot-com bust.
by Marseille07
Thu Feb 25, 2021 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22408
Views: 2964905

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Anyone buy "discounted" stocks today? Tempting to get into AAPL and NIO for long term but who know's how far they'll drop. If this is just a correction fine but if not :shock: Absolutely. This is a buying opportunity imo. If our economy is picking up then we will inflate, the yields will ...
by Marseille07
Thu Feb 25, 2021 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22408
Views: 2964905

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

jason2459 wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 5:48 pm New sig "IPS: 100/0 + EF"

Shouldn't that be 100/0 - EF not plus :twisted:
It's actually not new, I've had it in front of the meme quote.
I'm in the same camp as KlangFool which believes EF is outside of AA, thus 100/0 (AA) + EF.
by Marseille07
Thu Feb 25, 2021 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22408
Views: 2964905

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Yes, though not sure what you're finding funny. With rising yields, all bets are off here. Nothing wrong proceeding with caution imo. You need to read your own signature again... The US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Not sure how you can hold these two views at the same tim...
by Marseille07
Thu Feb 25, 2021 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22408
Views: 2964905

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

This is excellent. We can load up 2% cheaper. Load up with your windfall, I presume? Lol Yes, though not sure what you're finding funny. With rising yields, all bets are off here. Nothing wrong proceeding with caution imo. You need to read your own signature again... The US market always recovers. ...
by Marseille07
Thu Feb 25, 2021 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22408
Views: 2964905

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

What's odd about this is both stocks and bonds are falling. There is no safe haven in LTTs like there was in March during the crash. Perhaps if this continues, it will be time to buy into LTTs again, but for now, I am comfortable that I sold my TLT in May when I did. I find this odd as well. I get ...
by Marseille07
Thu Feb 25, 2021 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22408
Views: 2964905

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

What's odd about this is both stocks and bonds are falling. There is no safe haven in LTTs like there was in March during the crash. Perhaps if this continues, it will be time to buy into LTTs again, but for now, I am comfortable that I sold my TLT in May when I did. I find this odd as well. I get ...
by Marseille07
Thu Feb 25, 2021 5:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Disturbing experience with Ally Bank
Replies: 221
Views: 25435

Re: Disturbing experience with Ally Bank

I was able to pull money from Ally via ACH initiated by Marcus. With that, I deleted the ACH linkage on Ally. Other than the money held up for 5 business days, I think my banking situation is coming to a close. Ally isn't perfect but so far my experience has been good.
by Marseille07
Thu Feb 25, 2021 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22408
Views: 2964905

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Bad day for everything except GME. That should've been part of the everyone's diversification. :twisted: Seriously, I would expect a up day tomorrow with this much down. If the 10 year rate doesn't come down, growth stocks are gonna drop more. what forces would have to happen to drive the 10 year r...
by Marseille07
Thu Feb 25, 2021 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 8015
Views: 783045

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Crushtheturtle wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 3:28 pm What an exciting rebalancing opportunity. Just sell what is doing well and buy what is going down.
Is there anything to rebalance when UPRO down 5% TMF down 5%...?
by Marseille07
Thu Feb 25, 2021 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22408
Views: 2964905

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

HomerJ wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 3:24 pm You need to read your own signature again...
My windfall is currently part of my EF. I know I need some cash to pay taxes soon.
by Marseille07
Thu Feb 25, 2021 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22408
Views: 2964905

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Wanderingwheelz wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 3:10 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 3:09 pm This is excellent. We can load up 2% cheaper.
Load up with your windfall, I presume? Lol
Yes, though not sure what you're finding funny. With rising yields, all bets are off here. Nothing wrong proceeding with caution imo.
by Marseille07
Thu Feb 25, 2021 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22408
Views: 2964905

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

This is excellent. We can load up 2% cheaper.
by Marseille07
Thu Feb 25, 2021 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22408
Views: 2964905

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Nasdaq -3.4%. Unreal.