Search found 84 matches

by texasfight
Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth Factor ETF (opposite of VFVA)
Replies: 3
Views: 498

Growth Factor ETF (opposite of VFVA)

All, Does anyone have any suggestions for a growth factor ETF? I am basically looking for the opposite of VFVA (vanguard value factor ETF - this one has about the highest value loading you can find). I am looking for something to pair with it for rotation trades/overweight/underweight exposure trade...
by texasfight
Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current state of TIPS market
Replies: 41
Views: 2943

Re: Current state of TIPS market

New lows in 5 yr real yields this morning. Mega cap growth soaring.
by texasfight
Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current state of TIPS market
Replies: 41
Views: 2943

Re: Current state of TIPS market

The way TIPS buyers lose is by inflation coming in lower than breakevens currently priced in. Which is what I suspect will happen. This is the primary reasons TIPS have underperformed nominals for 20 years, inflation keeps underperforming. I do own TIPS and have wanted to add to them but negative y...
by texasfight
Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current state of TIPS market
Replies: 41
Views: 2943

Re: Current state of TIPS market

I think everyone would enjoy reading this thread about what effect nominal yields, expected inflation, and liquidity have on TIPS pricing. People are paying up big time right now for inflation protection. https://twitter.com/R_Perli/status/1296067620773470211?s=20 This is a ridiculous assertion by ...
by texasfight
Fri Aug 21, 2020 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3658
Views: 277563

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Small cap value will outperform in the short term due to rising real rates. But it will not recover the growth/value divergence going back to like 2008 like everyone likes to chart. DFA was never capturing some mystical premium, there was simply real economic growth occurring with positive real inte...
by texasfight
Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current state of TIPS market
Replies: 41
Views: 2943

Re: Current state of TIPS market

I think everyone would enjoy reading this thread about what effect nominal yields, expected inflation, and liquidity have on TIPS pricing. People are paying up big time right now for inflation protection. https://twitter.com/R_Perli/status/1296067620773470211?s=20 Why do you think that "people...
by texasfight
Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current state of TIPS market
Replies: 41
Views: 2943

Re: Current state of TIPS market

I think everyone would enjoy reading this thread about what effect nominal yields, expected inflation, and liquidity have on TIPS pricing. People are paying up big time right now for inflation protection. https://twitter.com/R_Perli/status/1296067620773470211?s=20 Why do you think that "people...
by texasfight
Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 12086
Views: 936419

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Those are way too tame. Go big or go home! FNGU is a 3x large-cap growth fund and is up 163% YTD! :D Unfortunately 3x daily leverage is about the only way you lose in this market. Lose? It's up 163% YTD. Haha if you could stomach the drawdown That's the price you have to be willing to pay, isn't it...
by texasfight
Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current state of TIPS market
Replies: 41
Views: 2943

Current state of TIPS market

I think everyone would enjoy reading this thread about what effect nominal yields, expected inflation, and liquidity have on TIPS pricing. People are paying up big time right now for inflation protection.

https://twitter.com/R_Perli/status/1296 ... 70211?s=20
by texasfight
Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 12086
Views: 936419

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Not just mega cap tech. Mega cap growth. QQQ and MGK. Those are way too tame. Go big or go home! FNGU is a 3x large-cap growth fund and is up 163% YTD! :D Unfortunately 3x daily leverage is about the only way you lose in this market. Lose? It's up 163% YTD. Haha if you could stomach the drawdown
by texasfight
Tue Aug 18, 2020 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 12086
Views: 936419

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

willthrill81 wrote: Tue Aug 18, 2020 3:06 pm
texasfight wrote: Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:39 pm Not just mega cap tech.

Mega cap growth. QQQ and MGK.
Those are way too tame. Go big or go home! FNGU is a 3x large-cap growth fund and is up 163% YTD! :D
Unfortunately 3x daily leverage is about the only way you lose in this market.

Nasdaq 100 futures is what I would hold
by texasfight
Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 12086
Views: 936419

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Not just mega cap tech. Mega cap growth. QQQ and MGK. Long duration/convexity of cash flows. Multiple expansion due to lower real yields. I expect Nasdaq 100 to trade over a 100x P/E multiple over the next decade. Basically if a stock/bond portfolio doesn't go up and to the right for new highs every...
by texasfight
Tue Aug 18, 2020 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Great American Bond Bubble" by Jeremy Siegel And Jeremy Schwartz
Replies: 54
Views: 4163

Re: "The Great American Bond Bubble" by Jeremy Siegel And Jeremy Schwartz

Nb. that even if yields keep falling continuously at about the same rate that they have averaged over the last few decades, it's not going to be a miracle for intermediate term bond funds (nb. the average duration of BND/VBTLX is 6.6 years) - the break-even point for a single step change in rates i...
by texasfight
Fri Aug 14, 2020 3:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Zero Dividend Stock Investment
Replies: 11
Views: 989

Re: Zero Dividend Stock Investment

MGK etf - Mega Cap Growth
by texasfight
Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?
Replies: 123
Views: 9350

Re: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?

Some perspectives on the death of US treasuries bonds, and for all those who say rates can't go lower. I think they can and will long term just like the last decade, but that they could still rise in the short term due to improving growth expectations, and stagflation/inflation fears. Maybe a new pe...
by texasfight
Tue Aug 11, 2020 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there an ETF for equities with stable cash flows?
Replies: 23
Views: 1022

Re: Is there an ETF for equities with stable cash flows?

Utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare are known as the "defensives".

Utilities are most like bond proxies, and are actually a decent value right now.
by texasfight
Thu Aug 06, 2020 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else hoarding cash right now?
Replies: 230
Views: 26380

Re: Anyone else hoarding cash right now?

Buy XLF and hedge with LTPZ vs. holding cash.

50-80% upside in XLF 1 year out.

There is a reason Buffett is buying Bank of America. He buys stuff when it is very difficult to lose money in the longer term and when returns are heavily skewed to the positive side.
by texasfight
Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else hoarding cash right now?
Replies: 230
Views: 26380

Re: Anyone else hoarding cash right now?

I hold absolutely zero cash. People who have been risk averse have been slaughtered the past decade vs. asset price inflation. The future is persistent low or negative real real yields. Get ready for 100x P/E multiples on nasdaq 100 ETF's in a matter of years. https://twitter.com/TFMetals/status/129...
by texasfight
Tue Aug 04, 2020 7:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Interest Only Non Recourse Mortgage
Replies: 10
Views: 906

Re: Interest Only Non Recourse Mortgage

So you're telling me it isn't an awesome risk free return :D

Thanks for the answers. I was thinking of a no down payment, interest only loan.
by texasfight
Tue Aug 04, 2020 7:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Interest Only Non Recourse Mortgage
Replies: 10
Views: 906

Interest Only Non Recourse Mortgage

I am curious, Say I could buy a house and rent it to my roomates to make more than the payment, but I was worried about property values in the area dropping and being stuck with it. So what if you got an interest only non recourse loan so you can walk away if the property value were to drop and give...
by texasfight
Sun Aug 02, 2020 6:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any Chase Sapphire Reserve cardholders planning on cancelling?
Replies: 92
Views: 9400

Re: Any Chase Sapphire Reserve cardholders planning on cancelling?

I've been slamming the pay yourself back feature+doordash haha
by texasfight
Sun Aug 02, 2020 10:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Business Brokerage Account
Replies: 3
Views: 304

Business Brokerage Account

I am looking at taking over as the portfolio manager for the family partnership, mainly with regards to cash management. Right now they use frost bank, and upon reviewing they had like 4 million sitting in their checking account. At a bank with significant energy loan exposure. I want to ring their ...
by texasfight
Sun Aug 02, 2020 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Financial Advisors a Complete and Total Waste of Money?
Replies: 153
Views: 9540

Re: Are Financial Advisors a Complete and Total Waste of Money?

For most people, not at all. The average person is their own worst enemy. Unfortunately the truest statement about financial advisors is this -"Once you know enough to be able to pick out a good financial advisor, you don't need one. For most people it is essentially rolling the dice, they had ...
by texasfight
Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would it take to cause a QQQ Collapse?
Replies: 60
Views: 5963

Re: What would it take to cause a QQQ Collapse?

The last decade has been something of a gold rush in bringing the physical world online. New habits have been created: how you shop, how you date, etc. New brands have been created: Uber, Tinder, etc. As with any gold rush, the people selling the tools get rich. Those tools are largely marketing (G...
by texasfight
Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio: Is He Saying Bonds Are Done?
Replies: 68
Views: 7875

Re: Ray Dalio: Is He Saying Bonds Are Done?

The reason stocks are up is because bonds are up. The reason gold is up is because bonds are up. The reason housing is up is because bonds are up. So what you're really saying is the USD is down? Yes. Which is why I hold absolutely zero cash. My portfolio has similarities to the permanent portfolio...
by texasfight
Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would it take to cause a QQQ Collapse?
Replies: 60
Views: 5963

Re: What would it take to cause a QQQ Collapse?

Everyone loves showing the Nasdaq/Russell or Nasdaq/S&P 500 chart to show how it is going to crash. But they are completely overlooking the most important underlying factors. Get ready for it - This time IS different. It has everything to do with falling real interest rates (due to deflationary...
by texasfight
Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio: Is He Saying Bonds Are Done?
Replies: 68
Views: 7875

Re: Ray Dalio: Is He Saying Bonds Are Done?

The reason stocks are up is because bonds are up. The reason gold is up is because bonds are up. The reason housing is up is because bonds are up. So what you're really saying is the USD is down? Yes. Which is why I hold absolutely zero cash. My portfolio has similarities to the permanent portfolio...
by texasfight
Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would it take to cause a QQQ Collapse?
Replies: 60
Views: 5963

Re: What would it take to cause a QQQ Collapse?

Everyone loves showing the Nasdaq/Russell or Nasdaq/S&P 500 chart to show how it is going to crash. But they are completely overlooking the most important underlying factors. Get ready for it - This time IS different. It has everything to do with falling real interest rates (due to deflationary ...
by texasfight
Sat Aug 01, 2020 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio: Is He Saying Bonds Are Done?
Replies: 68
Views: 7875

Re: Ray Dalio: Is He Saying Bonds Are Done?

The reason stocks are up is because bonds are up. The reason gold is up is because bonds are up. The reason housing is up is because bonds are up. IMO bonds are overpriced in the short term, but if they perform badly nominally over say the next 10 years, it is gonna be ugly for a lot of assets. If t...
by texasfight
Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need help with company benefits thru colonial life
Replies: 2
Views: 157

Re: Need help with company benefits thru colonial life

I confirmed that my out of pocket max is 3000, but my deductible is 10k. If someone can explain to me how this is possible that would be great.
by texasfight
Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need help with company benefits thru colonial life
Replies: 2
Views: 157

Need help with company benefits thru colonial life

Age:26 Income: $105k/yr Roth IRA: $30k taxable account/emergency fund: $590k 401k: $0 but about to get one at current company I am considering getting the CFA and switching out of oil and gas but for now I plan on staying at my current employer until this blows over. My large taxable account is due ...
by texasfight
Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying Vanguard funds through Chase
Replies: 12
Views: 1094

Re: Buying Vanguard funds through Chase

arf30 wrote: Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:30 am I think until they support spec ID properly you'd want to avoid them for taxable accounts, unless you want tax headaches down the road.
I had issues initially, but now it is sorted out.
by texasfight
Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying Vanguard funds through Chase
Replies: 12
Views: 1094

Re: Buying Vanguard funds through Chase

I switched to chase you invest from vanguard. Vanguard's tax lot organization when it comes to selling specific lots is a nightmare. I will disagree. Vanguard tax lot organization is quite serviceable and easy to use. But is TDAmeritrade, WellsTrade, and others. I think that many things that people...
by texasfight
Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying Vanguard funds through Chase
Replies: 12
Views: 1094

Re: Buying Vanguard funds through Chase

I switched to chase you invest from vanguard. Vanguard's tax lot organization when it comes to selling specific lots is a nightmare. I actually have been able to buy ETF's with dividends 1 day SOONER in my chase account than in my vanguard account. That shocked me. In addition to direct linkage to m...