Search found 91 matches

by texasfight
Tue Feb 23, 2021 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting fed up with E-trade for taxable brokerage. Where to go?
Replies: 17
Views: 1408

Re: Getting fed up with E-trade for taxable brokerage. Where to go?

I actually have switched to Chase you invest and really like it for a taxable brokerage account Make sure you get it set to specific ID initially (have to send a message requesting it) and you are good to go. Pros vs. vanguard: faster, dividends hit settlement account 1 day faster, I get all the sap...
by texasfight
Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ridiculous insurance premium
Replies: 41
Views: 3764

Re: Ridiculous insurance premium

Just curious for someone self employed let's say, and because the individual plans are garbage and you can't get a PPO.

Could you just get a group of friends w/ families and create a business and start a group plan under it?
by texasfight
Fri Jan 22, 2021 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS and negative real yields
Replies: 33
Views: 2248

Re: TIPS and negative real yields

The market is now pricing in that the massive US gov deficit going towards stimulus checks, business funding, state local aid, etc. which is all monetized via the Fed is going to create inflation. Thus we see rising breakeven inflation (inflation expectations). Nominal yields have also risen, but no...
by texasfight
Thu Jan 21, 2021 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Relationship mortgage discounts for moving a million assets
Replies: 732
Views: 113021

Re: Relationship mortgage discounts for moving a million assets

For those of you who went with Chase CPC and moved investments: 1. I have a portfolio making very few trades each year (mostly buy and hold, trading by myself). But would still appreciate an easy-to-understand platform. How is their platform? How are the fees? 2. Is transferring the porttfolio a sm...
by texasfight
Thu Jan 21, 2021 12:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Relationship mortgage discounts for moving a million assets
Replies: 732
Views: 113021

Re: Relationship mortgage discounts for moving a million assets

For those of you who went with Chase CPC and moved investments: 1. I have a portfolio making very few trades each year (mostly buy and hold, trading by myself). But would still appreciate an easy-to-understand platform. How is their platform? How are the fees? 2. Is transferring the porttfolio a sm...
by texasfight
Wed Jan 20, 2021 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Engagement Ring
Replies: 140
Views: 7805

Re: Engagement Ring

I'm so glad I was poor when I got married. 1/3 carat engagement ring at JC Penny's - $230, which so far has worked out to $7.18/year. +1 For me a wedding ring is like a marriage litmus test. If your spouse has issues because you bought a $500 ring instead of the $50,000 one, is that a sign of issue...
by texasfight
Wed Jan 20, 2021 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 13113
Views: 1012853

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

What does that mean? i was holding off till the 20th to go all in. but instead of going all in, i'm just doing 25% in s&p500. the rest stays in cash. Well you already missed out on a 4% gain in a few weeks. What's your long-term plan? Probably good you didn't go 100% stocks... Jumping from 100%...
by texasfight
Tue Jan 19, 2021 1:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: who do you bank with and why?
Replies: 168
Views: 16213

Re: who do you bank with and why?

-Actually really like youinvest brokerage account - my dividends are ready to invest faster than vanguard, also in vanguard you cannot export cost basis as excel to calculate $ tax cost/total dollar amount easily whereas in Chase I can (huge for my TLH and trading), and it's quick, also get instant...
by texasfight
Tue Jan 19, 2021 11:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: BND or EDV
Replies: 35
Views: 2446

Re: BND or EDV

EDV for equity allocations of 60% or greater backtests best Although I am preparing for us to enter a stagflationary regime in which case I will dramatically reduce my duration/treasury exposure (already have for the most part in march 2020), but started to scale back in recently as a deflation hedge.
by texasfight
Tue Jan 19, 2021 11:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: who do you bank with and why?
Replies: 168
Views: 16213

Re: who do you bank with and why?

Chase -Credit cards bonuses (I massacre them on these) -Ease of website + app -high mobile deposit limits -Actually really like youinvest brokerage account - my dividends are ready to invest faster than vanguard, also in vanguard you cannot export cost basis as excel to calculate $ tax cost/total do...
by texasfight
Tue Jan 19, 2021 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22114
Views: 2945177

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

But we will see a wipeout in Russell 2000. These companies don't have earnings that will keep up with inflation. Small cap value is a slightly different story (lots of regional banks, actual earnings leverage for the recovery, etc. Fair enough, when I refer to Small Caps I was referring to high qua...
by texasfight
Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22114
Views: 2945177

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Small caps are in the largest bubble I have personally ever witnessed. Small Caps tend to do the best in the recovery phase which is right now, in aggregate Small Caps still have a lot of ground to make up since 2018 since they have lagged a lot... and saying that Small Caps is the largest bubble i...
by texasfight
Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Likelihood of 70s style inflation
Replies: 112
Views: 8859

Re: Likelihood of 70s style inflation

Depends on fiscal. If they keep passing fiscal. What does "passing fiscal" mean? Fiscal package = additional unemployment, stimulus checks, PPP funding, state and local funding, etc. First time we are really printing solvency vs. prior Fed policy of focus on reducing risk free rate to pus...
by texasfight
Sun Jan 17, 2021 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Likelihood of 70s style inflation
Replies: 112
Views: 8859

Re: Likelihood of 70s style inflation

Depends on fiscal. If they keep passing fiscal. What does "passing fiscal" mean? Fiscal package = additional unemployment, stimulus checks, PPP funding, state and local funding, etc. First time we are really printing solvency vs. prior Fed policy of focus on reducing risk free rate to pus...
by texasfight
Sun Jan 17, 2021 1:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dimensional Funds
Replies: 9
Views: 870

Re: Dimensional Funds

Value underperformance.

If you want value exposure then they are good.
by texasfight
Sun Jan 17, 2021 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Likelihood of 70s style inflation
Replies: 112
Views: 8859

Re: Likelihood of 70s style inflation

Depends on fiscal. If they keep passing fiscal. Then massive stagflation. If there are hangups, then another deflationary bust until they print solvency again. Rates need to be negative, we have a 12% output gap and 7% unemployment. To get shadow funds rate down to where it needs to be (in 2014 it w...
by texasfight
Sat Jan 16, 2021 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On what are you most bullish?
Replies: 197
Views: 10709

Re: On what are you most bullish?

For now, natural gas producers (EQT, AR) until I see summer and winter 2021 strip improve. BSM for gassy mineral exposure. Midstream for sure. Check out AMLP etf and research from there off HFIR. Along with 30 yr treasuries in the short term while I expect fiscal talks to have hiccups and foreign pu...
by texasfight
Sat Jan 16, 2021 1:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to view Austin-suburb housing market?
Replies: 96
Views: 8106

Re: How to view Austin-suburb housing market?

I would hold off. This is insane times. Everybody getting rich in the stock market (esp the tech crowd moving to Austin). Total FOMO. https://twitter.com/this__is__shiv/status/1350210569958281219?s=20 https://twitter.com/MadThunderdome/status/1349799686752907264?s=20 https://twitter.com/sentimentrad...
by texasfight
Fri Jan 15, 2021 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Favorite Sites for Investment Info, Trends, Research?
Replies: 5
Views: 368

Re: Favorite Sites for Investment News/Trends

Twitter hands down.

I typically go underweight overweight asset classes (duration at different points on curve, sectors, growth vs. value, rising vs. falling real yields, etc. Fundamentally based on risk parity, MPT, etc. Building an efficient portfolio with fat right tails and skinny left.
by texasfight
Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22114
Views: 2945177

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Small Caps are selling off though but I feel it's just some profit taking, Since the peak in August 2018 Small Caps are still underperforming Large Caps despite the meteroric rise in the last couple of months, just goes to show how far Small had fallen relative to Large. Small caps are in the large...
by texasfight
Thu Jan 14, 2021 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bonds are too risky
Replies: 27
Views: 2557

Re: Why bonds are too risky

I remember being told that when I bought EDV with the 30 yr at 3.4%

Only to dump it for a 60% gain 1.5 years later
by texasfight
Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Millennial - invest in bonds at all?
Replies: 105
Views: 8830

Re: Millennial - invest in bonds at all?

I like EDV and ZROZ for diversification.

I also use it for emergency fund (when I am holding minimum duration exposure) now that I have a large enough portfolio.

I actually started scaling back into my long duration positions for the first time this week
by texasfight
Fri Jan 08, 2021 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if the market stops going up?
Replies: 71
Views: 7997

Re: What if the market stops going up?

It can't and won't in nominal terms.
by texasfight
Fri Jan 08, 2021 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble' - GMO
Replies: 205
Views: 23396

Re: 'The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble' - GMO

People on here seem to have no idea what is happening. For the first time ever we are propping up demand via monetized stimulus. This creates inflation while simultaneously crushing productivity. Real GDP growth per capita will probably average 1.25% this full cycle - AFTER we open up. That the best...
by texasfight
Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ETFs would you like to see Vanguard do next?
Replies: 86
Views: 5122

Re: What ETFs would you like to see Vanguard do next?

Leveraged Multi asset (MPT based) with US Stocks (relative value US sectors (vs. real interest rates) with derivatives overlay), gold futures, and Treasury futures with DXY/VIX calls as a liquidity hedge

I'm not holding my breath...
by texasfight
Fri Oct 23, 2020 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Large Value Options
Replies: 16
Views: 1705

Re: Vanguard Large Value Options

VFVA is by far the most valuey. It holds a roughly equal small/mid/large split.

For pure large cap value you can use MGV (mega cap, so you are getting the 148 largest value stocks in market cap weight) or VTV (large cap, you are getting the 333 largest value stocks in market cap weight).
by texasfight
Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3949
Views: 303108

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

To everyone obsessed with tilting. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&...
by texasfight
Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3949
Views: 303108

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

US small cap stocks beat large cap stocks by 5.5% annually in the 1970s and by 5% annually in the 2000s. And then everything changed and the economy has been completely different since with velocity of money collapsing, US household debt to income dropping significantly, savings rate up, and collap...
by texasfight
Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3949
Views: 303108

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

To everyone obsessed with tilting. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&...
by texasfight
Tue Sep 29, 2020 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3949
Views: 303108

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

To everyone obsessed with tilting. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&...
by texasfight
Fri Sep 25, 2020 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New iShares 25+ Year Treasury ETF
Replies: 52
Views: 4951

Re: New iShares 25+ Year Treasury ETF

GOVZ will track the same index as ZROZ but at a much lower expense ratio, which will certainly make things interesting. Also BlackRock typically does a much better job of ensuring that market makers support the iShares ETFs than PIMCO typically does. The average bid/ask spread on ZROZ over the past...
by texasfight
Fri Sep 25, 2020 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New iShares 25+ Year Treasury ETF
Replies: 52
Views: 4951

Re: New iShares 25+ Year Treasury ETF

EDV and ZROZ track slightly different indicies, and ZROZ has done slightly better than EDV since inception: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fund-performance?s=y&symbol=ZROZ&benchmark=EDV GOVZ will track the same index as ZROZ but at a much lower expense ratio, which will certainly make ...
by texasfight
Fri Sep 25, 2020 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3949
Views: 303108

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

To everyone obsessed with tilting. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&...
by texasfight
Fri Sep 25, 2020 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3949
Views: 303108

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

To everyone obsessed with tilting. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&...
by texasfight
Wed Sep 23, 2020 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Never Ever Rebalance Bonds into Stocks?
Replies: 300
Views: 26841

Re: Never Ever Rebalance Bonds into Stocks?

Even harder this time around when the treasury market blew up. I sold stocks to buy more long term treasury ETF's and long term TIPS ETF's cause I figured they would recover faster, and it mathematically did not make sense for them to drop the way they did in term of real yields going into a deflati...
by texasfight
Fri Sep 11, 2020 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3949
Views: 303108

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Thread on value vs. growth. I expect value factor believers will continue to live in denial about the trajectory of the US economy. I do expect a short term period of value outperformance since the divergence is so wide (and real rates rising). If you are gonna stick to value, make sure to have a he...
by texasfight
Thu Sep 03, 2020 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 13113
Views: 1012853

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

The most risk-on asset, regional banks KRE is green today, on a 20% VIX spike and long term treasuries rallying with America's favorite index QQQ down 5.7%. The Fed has created a TBTF casino and you wonder why we can't create economic growth? They should have nipped this options meltup in the butt w...
by texasfight
Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors Were Warned.
Replies: 171
Views: 14690

Re: Investors Were Warned.

Omg. This is exhausting. Is it a bad idea to buy VTSAX? Yes or no? Because the answer is no, you are being cute. That's all. It’s a bad idea to buy ONLY VTSAX. Some people don’t know it’s a bad idea. Some people do it because of peer pressure and convince themselves it’s not a bad idea. Some people...
by texasfight
Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 13113
Views: 1012853

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I agree. A few weeks ago when I was talking about Creative Destruction no one commented on it. But we are watching it in real time. What we are witnessing is the greatest devaluation of labor and revaluation of capital in human history. This is coming from a newly minted 26 yr old millionaire who u...
by texasfight
Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 13113
Views: 1012853

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I believe we really are in a tech revolution. The pandemic has just sped up the process. I agree. A few weeks ago when I was talking about Creative Destruction no one commented on it. But we are watching it in real time. What we are witnessing is the greatest devaluation of labor and revaluation of...
by texasfight
Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 13113
Views: 1012853

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I believe we really are in a tech revolution. The pandemic has just sped up the process. I agree. A few weeks ago when I was talking about Creative Destruction no one commented on it. But we are watching it in real time. What we are witnessing is the greatest devaluation of labor and revaluation of...
by texasfight
Tue Sep 01, 2020 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 13113
Views: 1012853

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I believe we really are in a tech revolution. The pandemic has just sped up the process. I agree. A few weeks ago when I was talking about Creative Destruction no one commented on it. But we are watching it in real time. What we are witnessing is the greatest devaluation of labor and revaluation of...
by texasfight
Tue Sep 01, 2020 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bear Cub Smells Bubble
Replies: 406
Views: 30505

Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Blowout ISM. Fed buying long end today to prevent curve steepening. It is almost like they want to blow an asset bubble. :wink:
by texasfight
Tue Sep 01, 2020 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Easy money baby!
Replies: 59
Views: 7056

Re: Easy money baby!

Honestly go all in. Not in tesla calls or single stocks like apple though. Diversified indices.

This is the greatest devaluation of labor and revaluation of capital in US history, and you don't want to miss out.
by texasfight
Mon Aug 31, 2020 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 13113
Views: 1012853

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

10 real yield new lows, nasdaq all time highs. Remember that these are the same trade.
by texasfight
Sat Aug 29, 2020 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bear Cub Smells Bubble
Replies: 406
Views: 30505

Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

Let me tell you how much Apple is worth with a positive earnings yield at negative 30 yr real yields. Infinity. If a portfolio of US stocks and treasury bonds fails to keep going up and to the right from here on out, the US undergoes a sovereign default. Period. Luke Gromen is a great resource on th...
by texasfight
Fri Aug 28, 2020 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can we talk about the future of oil?
Replies: 72
Views: 5157

Re: Can we talk about the future of oil?

solar on every house rooftop, improved battery storage or pumping of water uphill with excess power, and natural gas peaker plants + hydro for sun don't shine and wind don't blow. This the way.
by texasfight
Fri Aug 28, 2020 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bear Cub Smells Bubble
Replies: 406
Views: 30505

Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

The difference between now and the 2000 tech bubble is all in real yields (there is no alternative now, and at a negative long term real yield a stock like Apple could effectively be worth infinity). Not to mention the fact that the Fed wants to blow an asset bubble right now to avoid a deflationary...