Search found 289 matches

by Third Son
Thu May 14, 2020 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 65534

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Yep, sarcasm is a tricky thing on the internet. I think it get the delivery you were going for now, but more importantly, I agree with the critique of defaulting to a doom and gloom position on a topic as complex as determining the proper present value of the stock market. My own expectation is fur...
by Third Son
Thu May 14, 2020 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 65534

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

With rising unemployment continuing as long as this virus is in control of everything in our lives, yes it's going down more. This is the riskiest markets I've ever seen, and with great reasoning, anyone can understand why. Death is final, and this virus is leaving many lives at the end. Wisdom die...
by Third Son
Thu May 14, 2020 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 65534

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

With rising unemployment continuing as long as this virus is in control of everything in our lives, yes it's going down more. This is the riskiest markets I've ever seen, and with great reasoning, anyone can understand why. Death is final, and this virus is leaving many lives at the end. Wisdom die...
by Third Son
Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation
Replies: 63
Views: 5034

Re: Inflation

I have never found a group of people that worries more about inflation than the Bogleheads. Yeah I share that sentiment. If one has a substantial nest egg in retirement and can control distributions why is this an issue? There seems to be a handful of forum members who have been starting threads ba...
by Third Son
Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds won't get you anywhere!
Replies: 85
Views: 9639

Re: Bonds won't get you anywhere!

If you invest in Bonds, the value of your account does not go down as fast during corrections like it would if you invested in Stocks. On the flip side, when the market increases your account is not going up as fast as an investor with more Equities. Do Bonds really get you anywhere? Are Bonds simp...
by Third Son
Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds are still OK (maybe)
Replies: 15
Views: 1922

Re: Bonds are still OK (maybe)

For example, you are assuming (predicting) that: 1. Stocks will provide some gain. 2. Bonds will provide some "ballast" and/or maybe some income. If you can't assume either of those things then why would you own stocks or bonds? I own stocks and bonds not for those assumptions, but becaus...
by Third Son
Sat Apr 18, 2020 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?
Replies: 386
Views: 33246

Re: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?

Level of uncertainty very high right now. Market seems to rely on hopes of a quick and thorough recovery. Economy is being hit by severe and historically rapid body blows. Some are predicting another GD-like event. FED and Congress working feverishly to combat it. Lots of uncertainty in both econom...
by Third Son
Fri Apr 17, 2020 7:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone preparing to sell all their stock holdings to raise cash?
Replies: 36
Views: 3283

Re: Anyone preparing to sell all their stock holdings to raise cash?

Since the market is getting close again to the highs set early this year do you guys plan to sell into the rally tomorrow and raise cash so during the next downturn we will have more cash to buy stocks? I have the goldilocks amount of cash..... Just right. But then I am retired so I already figured...
by Third Son
Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How many paid for kids' college?
Replies: 282
Views: 14538

Re: How many paid for kids' college?

I was the first one to go to college in my family. I paid for almost all of it since my parents couldn't help much. We paid for our four daughters parochial schooling through high school and helped them through college. I made sure they had some loans so that they had some "skin in the game&quo...
by Third Son
Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio: ‘you’d be pretty crazy to hold bonds’ right now
Replies: 151
Views: 18653

Re: Ray Dalio: ‘you’d be pretty crazy to hold bonds’ right now

If enough people make enough predictions, someone is bound to be right. Ray who? 8-)
by Third Son
Tue Apr 14, 2020 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did any Bogleheads blink?
Replies: 42
Views: 4032

Re: Did any Bogleheads blink?

Was I supposed to do something? I did nothing and am back within 3% of my all-time high.
by Third Son
Tue Apr 14, 2020 5:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Still using total bond market?
Replies: 169
Views: 22945

Re: Still using total bond market?

I think Total Bond is obsolete. I suspect the Boglehead doctine will reflect this soon. This statement lacks value unless there is something to fill up the open ended comment with something substantive. My situation dictates that I have reached the end of my risk taking journey. I could put all of ...
by Third Son
Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When Does a Trust Become Worth It?
Replies: 71
Views: 6551

Re: When Does a Trust Become Worth It?

At 500k, 1MM, 2MM, 5MM? In case I died, I already have beneficiaries in my accounts but as I age, maybe it'd be best structured differently. It would mostly be to keep wealth in the family, give family annual distributions of 3% of account value at year end, only goes to blood descendants and mostl...
by Third Son
Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: FOMO Help - $1M to invest after avoiding all of the downturn
Replies: 58
Views: 6200

Re: FOMO Help - $1M to invest after avoiding all of the downturn

I moved > $1 million out of the market back in February before the peak. I sat watching prices plummet as i expected and then started to leg in rather slowly around 3/16. Then things popped on 3/24 and i slowed down expecting a small pop and then for things to rollover again. Well, as we all know, ...
by Third Son
Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anybody have an IPS that says 'I will sell all equities when X happens'?
Replies: 92
Views: 4199

Re: Does anybody have an IPS that says 'I will sell all equities when X happens'?

dmcmahon wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 10:32 am Meh. I’m flexible. Man plans and God laughs. .
Yeah he is laughing quite a bit these days :|
by Third Son
Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anybody have an IPS that says 'I will sell all equities when X happens'?
Replies: 92
Views: 4199

Re: Does anybody have an IPS that says 'I will sell all equities when X happens'?

Strictly speaking the concept of an IPS is not born out of Bogle principles, but more an industry by-product. The origins of this may have more to do with regulatory compliance as well as legal needs of the business. Investment advisors who work with clients develop a plan then write up everything ...
by Third Son
Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: With the govt forcing interest rates near 0, why bother with bonds anymore?
Replies: 29
Views: 2028

Re: With the govt forcing interest rates near 0, why bother with bonds anymore?

I have a sizeable allocation in FXNAX (Fidelity's bond fund). The interest I receive from this fund gets me to 1/2 of my fixed expenses for the year. That works for me. Please report back to us how much you're getting after a few months. :twisted: This week I received my dividend for Vanguard Total...
by Third Son
Fri Apr 10, 2020 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: With the govt forcing interest rates near 0, why bother with bonds anymore?
Replies: 29
Views: 2028

Re: With the govt forcing interest rates near 0, why bother with bonds anymore?

I have a sizeable allocation in FXNAX (Fidelity's bond fund). The interest I receive from this fund gets me to 1/2 of my fixed expenses for the year. That works for me.
by Third Son
Fri Apr 10, 2020 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Nobody Knows Nothin'"
Replies: 35
Views: 2566

Re: "Nobody Knows Nothin'"

The more one tries to understand the market the less one knows. It is unintuitive.
by Third Son
Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Your AA once you hit 7 figures
Replies: 34
Views: 2697

Re: Your AA once you hit 7 figures

I never really planned in my accumulation phase. I was too busy raising a family of six on one income and they all graduated college before I really started to look at my balances regularly . I was in a targeted 2020 fund for years and I think I was in my early 50s when I began to pay attention. I h...
by Third Son
Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 12032
Views: 931810

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I am now hovering around 1% down on my 401k as of today so I just put in an order to transfer all of my funds into a cash fund and sit on the sidelines. I'm sure I'll miss out on further gains over the coming weeks but I can't handle the anxiety of checking the markets every two minutes. Hang in th...
by Third Son
Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 12032
Views: 931810

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Off to new sustainable highs!! :moneybag 10 million unemployed, nothing open or opening for months, businesses closing! Don't for get to wash your hands for 20 seconds. Life is great! :sharebeer They've figured out how to keep stocks going up without business activity or employees. Humans now econo...
by Third Son
Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 12032
Views: 931810

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Feds are just pumping things up. There will be another HUGE crash. Things are going to get BAD out there. Everyone thinking everything is just fine is in LA LA land. Is everyone going back to work in a couple weeks? Movie Theaters? Bars and restaurants? Planes? Watch people go back to life as usual...
by Third Son
Sun Apr 05, 2020 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Investment Adviser’s Dirty Secret
Replies: 77
Views: 10215

Re: Your Investment Adviser’s Dirty Secret

Sometimes I write stuff I shouldn’t because it makes a few people upset. This might be one of those articles: Your Investment Adviser’s Dirty Secret Rick Ferri The truth is, an advisor can educate clients and put them into diversified portfolios. There is no secret sauce, believe me I have tried to...
by Third Son
Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market is irrational
Replies: 56
Views: 5163

Re: Market is irrational

Blah blah blah... Enough already.... :?
by Third Son
Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Drawdown strategy
Replies: 11
Views: 926

Re: Drawdown strategy

I retired on 29 February 2020. How's that for timing? Moved most of my 401(k) and to and tIRA and Roth in November 2019 and changed asset allocation to 40/60. Two years of cash savings. That should see us through until the end of 2021. IN the meantime I have been investigating setting up an HSA with...
by Third Son
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If I were a retiree right now....
Replies: 83
Views: 11826

Re: If I were a retiree right now....

I would be 50% cash and 50% inflation-protected assets. Cash in case of further asset deflation, the other 50% in case of the opposite scenario, inflation. Why? Bond yields are nothing, if rates further decrease you get nothing, if rates increase your existing bonds will decrease in value. If there...
by Third Son
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What's the downside to this
Replies: 44
Views: 3442

Re: What's the downside to this

dreamrider wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:24 pm ....... I'm betting the stock dividends payment will outweigh the stock price risk.

What's the downside to owning this stock and getting a 10% dividend every year in this scenario?
Betting ain't what we do here....
by Third Son
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Need Explanation: Why Locking in Losses is Bad
Replies: 26
Views: 2086

Re: Need Explanation: Why Locking in Losses is Bad

So is the following true then: Yes, it is POSSIBLE to time the market to your advantage. Hypothetically, it could be much more to your advantage and to your bottom line to time the market during a downturn rather than to just keep buying. Possible in the same sense that's possible to fall out of an...
by Third Son
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Call For Compassion
Replies: 58
Views: 4829

Re: A Call For Compassion

OP, Thanks for the post! I think we are seeing lots of fear and stressors that are affecting us all. I found this recent blog by Michael Kitces of some help.... https://www.kitces.com/blog/advisor-client-self-care-self-compassion-financial-anxiety-traumatic-stress-ptsd/ WoodSpinner Great article......
by Third Son
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Call For Compassion
Replies: 58
Views: 4829

Re: A Call For Compassion

I’ve noticed that many fearful posts are from people who are new to the forum and/or very young. The pushback some are giving after posting is probably just because they are relatively novice investors and coming up with ideas that are new to them, but old and hashed out by the rest of us. The main...
by Third Son
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Call For Compassion
Replies: 58
Views: 4829

Re: A Call For Compassion- better behaviors

I think taking the higher ground is always the best course. That's a great idea...but that's not the rules the worst actors are playing by. When people come here with norms of social discourse that are more typical of /reddit, public shaming actually works better. We've seen what happens when we ta...
by Third Son
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Call For Compassion
Replies: 58
Views: 4829

A Call For Compassion- better behaviors

Thanks for efforts in righting this ship..... Some less panic-adverse members are looking for validation for something that has hit them (in their mind) below their individual tolerance. Be it trollish (intentional or otherwise) I think taking the higher ground is always the best course. I see that ...
by Third Son
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 379
Views: 41162

It's Not Different This Time?-Sure it is...

I believe the underlying strength of American ingenuity will pull us through this. That is not different. I think what is different this time is that the internet has magnified the overall perception that this scenario is playing out like the end of times. During the 1987 drop, I was busy working an...
by Third Son
Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Replies: 256
Views: 22688

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

mathguy3021 wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:42 am I have the right to have a different investment strategy. Don't criticize me for not being a boglehead.
This is bogleheads.org. What did you expect? Just. Do. It.
by Third Son
Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I have seen this coming?
Replies: 107
Views: 7560

Re: Should I have seen this coming?

At this point I wonder what the better strategy is. Follow the news or just ignore everything what's happening out there and invest blindly? Don't invest blindly but realize where you are on the investment timeline and act accordingly. You are young. Hang in there and you will be fine. We should ha...
by Third Son
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I stay or Should I go ? Retirement Now or as once Planned
Replies: 16
Views: 1836

Re: Should I stay or Should I go ? Retirement Now or as once Planned

You have enough for four people to retire comfortably in NC. I would retire tomorrow. Time>money at this point in your life.
by Third Son
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
Replies: 301
Views: 18704

Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

The best strategy is to not time the market and I will preach that until the end of day. But we have a different problem here. The issue here is that we are now in a crisis that the world has never seen before with The Great Shutdown. I'm reading report after report after report, that The Great Shu...
by Third Son
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I won the game but kept playing
Replies: 133
Views: 12238

Re: I won the game but kept playing

There should be a much greater emphasis on an "Exit Strategy" as far as I'm concerned. You read these boards and 99% of strategy is centered around the do's and don'ts of accumulation. An exit strategy needs to be in place for those that have won the game. How do you exit without triggeri...
by Third Son
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reducing spending during downtimes - psychologically
Replies: 6
Views: 588

Re: Reducing spending during downtimes - psychologically

We who have money may all find ourselves called upon to help family and friends in need over the next year. Good people will not feel like spending money on pleasures while others around them are suffering. I am homebound for the foreseeable future with everything closed and concerns about virus tr...
by Third Son
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 288
Views: 23947

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

I started this thread more as a public service for those who have helped me in the past. I view it as more of a public disservice to all those novice investors reading here who are tempted to time the market with funds they won't need for 30+ years. What is clear is there is money to be made by mak...
by Third Son
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 288
Views: 23947

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

I think people need to ask themselves why they are freaked out about a US stock market that is just about where it was in Dec 2018. Why not just take what you had back then “off the table”. THINK about this! We are looking to be in far worse shape over the next year than anything that was remotely ...
by Third Son
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please "unpack" how a bond fund works for fixed income in retirement
Replies: 14
Views: 1009

Please "unpack" how a bond fund works for fixed income in retirement-further thoughts

I have carefully read Rick Van Ness' book again this weekend. Things make more sense to me now. Thanks all for the responses.
by Third Son
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
Replies: 366
Views: 32908

Re: How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?

Double whammy, I retired 1 March, and looked at my accounts this morning for the first time since this started, down 13%. It hurts a lot because it dropped below "my number", but survivable. Thankful I did OMY before making this step, as I was considering retiring last year. After looking...
by Third Son
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 9397

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

Nassim Nicholas Taleb has made the point that by definition, the worst case is always worse than anything that had ever happened before. I have no idea how deep the decline will be. I am perfectly open to the idea that it could be--I say could --be deeper than 2008-2009 and possibly deeper than 192...
by Third Son
Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please "unpack" how a bond fund works for fixed income in retirement
Replies: 14
Views: 1009

Re: Please "unpack" how a bond fund works for fixed income in retirement

Performance is the CAGR or compound annual return for the various years trailing period. See the reference I originally posted. Fund companies by convention and SEC edict uniformly report performance that way. For time period less than a year the result is not annualized, if I am not mistaken. Than...
by Third Son
Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please "unpack" how a bond fund works for fixed income in retirement
Replies: 14
Views: 1009

Re: Please "unpack" how a bond fund works for fixed income in retirement

To get income from a fixed income investment you may be able to withdraw the interest payment and spend it, or you may not if the instrument accumulates the payment and gives it to you when the debt is paid back. The interest collected from the bonds in a bond fund is paid out periodically, but the...
by Third Son
Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please "unpack" how a bond fund works for fixed income in retirement
Replies: 14
Views: 1009

Re: Please "unpack" how a bond fund works for fixed income in retirement

To get income from a fixed income investment you may be able to withdraw the interest payment and spend it, or you may not if the instrument accumulates the payment and gives it to you when the debt is paid back. The interest collected from the bonds in a bond fund is paid out periodically, but the...
by Third Son
Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please "unpack" how a bond fund works for fixed income in retirement
Replies: 14
Views: 1009

Re: Please "unpack" how a bond fund works for fixed income in retirement

To get income from a fixed income investment you may be able to withdraw the interest payment and spend it, or you may not if the instrument accumulates the payment and gives it to you when the debt is paid back. The interest collected from the bonds in a bond fund is paid out periodically, but the...
by Third Son
Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please "unpack" how a bond fund works for fixed income in retirement
Replies: 14
Views: 1009

Re: Please "unpack" how a bond fund works for fixed income in retirement

Would someone be able to do a back of the napkin calculation what the fund will be worth based upon the chart below? I could, but it would be less useful than the napkin it was written on. Just project the recent yield, 1.93%, forward. 1 year: 1,000,000 * 1.0193 = 1,019,300 3 year: 1,000,000 * 1.01...