Search found 289 matches

by Third Son
Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please "unpack" how a bond fund works for fixed income in retirement
Replies: 14
Views: 1009

Re: Please "unpack" how a bond fund works for fixed income in retirement

moneyman11 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:59 am This had the potential to be an interesting thread, but the last two comments are just gonna get it locked.
Why is that?
by Third Son
Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please "unpack" how a bond fund works for fixed income in retirement
Replies: 14
Views: 1009

Please "unpack" how a bond fund works for fixed income in retirement

Good morning, Most BHs believe that bonds are a necessary part of a balanced portfolio. I hear about how they can be regarded as fixed income assets in retirement. How exactly does that work? If the more knowledgeable experts here could unpack the concepts to those of us (like me) who are less than ...
by Third Son
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds don't work in a crisis
Replies: 179
Views: 13363

Re: Bond Funds don't work in a crisis

I agree with and practice the principle of keeping your corporate risk confined to the equity side of the portfolio. My only bond holding is FNBGX which is up 9% YTD. What is that bond fund's duration? I couldn't find it on Fidelity's website. When I'm looking up a ticker I just Google it. Then you...
by Third Son
Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone (now) regret choosing a lump sum vs. annuity option?
Replies: 16
Views: 1351

Re: Anyone (now) regret choosing a lump sum vs. annuity option?

I am awaiting a lump sum payout in the coming weeks. This decision was made after considering that the crossover point of fixed annuity vs payout was 16.6 years. I thought it was a no brainer. The annuity offered had no COLA built into it which made my decision easier. It comforts me to know that I ...
by Third Son
Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds don't work in a crisis
Replies: 179
Views: 13363

Re: Bond Funds don't work in a crisis

I agree with and practice the principle of keeping your corporate risk confined to the equity side of the portfolio. My only bond holding is FNBGX which is up 9% YTD. What is that bond fund's duration? I couldn't find it on Fidelity's website. Under the "composition" tab: Duration - 18.66...
by Third Son
Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds don't work in a crisis
Replies: 179
Views: 13363

Re: Bond Funds don't work in a crisis

Swivelguy wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:25 pm I agree with and practice the principle of keeping your corporate risk confined to the equity side of the portfolio. My only bond holding is FNBGX which is up 9% YTD.
What is that bond fund's duration? I couldn't find it on Fidelity's website.
by Third Son
Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: thank you Bill Bernstein: "If You've Won the Game, Stop Playing"
Replies: 51
Views: 7074

Re: thank you Bill Bernstein: "If You've Won the Game, Stop Playing"

Bill, you saved my bacon, thank you for your wisdom. best, Curious when you and other posters here are thanking Bill Bernstein and others, whether you had completely gotten 100% out of stocks or just significantly reduced your allocation at this point after having enough?" I retired on Februar...
by Third Son
Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many funds do you have in your portfolio?
Replies: 167
Views: 12264

Re: How many funds do you have in your portfolio?

Two... And a small chunk in REITS that I won't touch for a number of years.
by Third Son
Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]
Replies: 434
Views: 284106

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]

ribeyesteaks wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:09 pm How are people feeling now? What if the S&P drops to 1600 or lower?
Still at 40/60 and still retired. I feel fine.
by Third Son
Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not liquidate?
Replies: 48
Views: 4503

Re: Why not liquidate?

Novice10 wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:10 am First time poster
Simple question
If the market for sure is falling for at least a few weeks why not sell now and by 2 to 3 weeks from now go back in, even if the market has not bottomed out you are still ahead?
Then you would be contributing to the market dropping, wouldn't you?
by Third Son
Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?
Replies: 359
Views: 27066

Thoughts from a recent retiree

I retired on the last day of February so I picked a bad time to test my AA and my stamina. Fortunately my AA is pretty decent with 40/60 split and a large lump sum pension coming in a few weeks. I also have 2 years of cash savings to ride out some of this drop. Losing large chunks of value in equiti...
by Third Son
Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who are getting excited with the plummeting market?
Replies: 100
Views: 10222

Re: Who are getting excited with the plummeting market?

For every person who is hoping for a huge correction to the market, is another one who is presently or in the midst of retiring. Just remember that when it becomes your problem you will not be so excited. Posting excitement threads in down markets is bad form. There is at least a half a dozen poster...
by Third Son
Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ok, I'll ask it... temporarily getting out of the market with a small % of portfolio?
Replies: 52
Views: 3211

Re: Ok, I'll ask it... temporarily getting out of the market with a small % of portfolio?

This question indicates you are not comfortable with the stock to bond ratio of your portfolio. If you do anything at all, you could lower the stock to bond ratio AND LEAVE IT THERE. Your stock to bond ratio (your AA) should be something you can be comfortable with during the good times and the bad...
by Third Son
Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity SPAXX Safety
Replies: 9
Views: 1500

Re: Fidelity SPAXX Safety

SPAXX is designed to be your core position within Fidelity. I seriously doubt that it will go below a buck.
by Third Son
Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actual experience vs hypothetical scenarios
Replies: 46
Views: 3478

Re: Actual experience vs hypothetical scenarios

This is my first real volatility experience with significant amounts of investable assets. And I think I've managed to gauge my risk tolerance just right. And interesting too, because it seems like the downturn this time around was very quick by historical standards. In retrospect, I bought too ear...
by Third Son
Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actual experience vs hypothetical scenarios
Replies: 46
Views: 3478

Re: Actual experience vs hypothetical scenarios

I have been investing since 1983 and have seen my share of volatility. I was too busy raising my family to be concerned. I just kept saving and raising my contributions as I went through life. Now in retirement with my allocation at 40/60 I am still a bit uncomfortable but OK. What are my options? T...
by Third Son
Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Replies: 95
Views: 8474

Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

First thing China needs to do is get the wet markets out of their economy.
by Third Son
Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 3402
Views: 571299

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

ruralavalon wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:18 am
Third Son wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 4:54 am Up 0.94%. 42/68%
With a 110% portfolio, should be doing better :wink: .
Nice catch :-)
by Third Son
Sun Mar 08, 2020 6:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Move Ed Jones to Vanguard, best way?
Replies: 10
Views: 921

Re: Move Ed Jones to Vanguard, best way?

Congratulations on making to the move to Vanguard. Have all of your interactions with Vanguard. When the process is done, you can send a brief note to your EJ person saying that you’ve moved your assets, and offering your thanks to that person. (You may not feel that EJ has served you well, but it’...
by Third Son
Sun Mar 08, 2020 4:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 3402
Views: 571299

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Up 0.94%. 42/58%
by Third Son
Sat Mar 07, 2020 7:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If you can afford to increase your 401k contributions now, should you?
Replies: 36
Views: 2478

Re: If you can afford to increase your 401k contributions now, should you?

Seriously thinking about loading up in the next few months and ending my annual allotment earlier in 2020. Anyone else doing this? Market timing? Market timing gets so overused on these forums. Taking advantage of down markets when cash infusion is possible is not market timing. The market is reall...
by Third Son
Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could this selloff be nearly over?
Replies: 68
Views: 5336

Re: Could this selloff be nearly over?

Of course it's possible. The opposite is also possible, along with somewhere in the middle. I could say more but my crystal ball is in the shop. They were supposed to return it to me a year ago, but they're waiting for an OEM part that was delayed due to unforeseen circumstances. PJW I saw your cry...
by Third Son
Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Move from bonds to Money Market,CDs, savings acct, etc.?[UPDATE]
Replies: 98
Views: 9082

Re: Move from bonds to Money Market,CDs, savings acct, etc.?

Thanks for the feedback. A few comments. I understand your concern, and I suppose I share it. However, I'm not ready to act. Since I plan on being an investor in both stocks and bonds for another 30 years or more, the problem is: When would you get back in to bonds? If you can say when you'd get ba...
by Third Son
Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: On not looking at your statements...
Replies: 29
Views: 2110

Re: On not looking at your statements...

I am paperless but look at my balances daily. I don't do anything about it but find it interesting how markets react to the gloom and doom of the day. There is really nothing actionable for me to do so I just watch from the bleachers.
by Third Son
Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 21201
Views: 2876650

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

How is a 10% drawdown on a 25% stock allocation "decimated "? You might want to check your maths. Decimated in terms of total $$s lost "on paper". The bigger issue to me is that I fear we're looking at a potential 50+% drawdown. CV-19 is going to torpedo the economy like nothing...
by Third Son
Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Move from bonds to Money Market,CDs, savings acct, etc.?[UPDATE]
Replies: 98
Views: 9082

Re: Move from bonds to Money Market,CDs, savings acct, etc.?

Rates have been near zero before. What did you do during 2008-2015? I am asking sincerely. I assume that you were working and didn't think about it too much.
by Third Son
Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Murphy's Law Of Retirement
Replies: 83
Views: 18314

Re: Murphy's Law Of Retirement

I really believe that sequence of returns risk is an issue if the retiree adheres to a set amount of spending and is not flexible when the market tanks. Having raised four children on one income has shown me that we can live on a lot less than we "make" in retirement. Having zero debt is a...
by Third Son
Fri Mar 06, 2020 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 21201
Views: 2876650

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Futures are absolutely getting HAMMERED this AM. Down over 800 (!!) just a few minutes ago. Have "recovered" to "only" down 749 :( Man, I picked a really bad time to retire..but at least I don't have to be getting on any airplanes for work travel, so there's that.. I just retire...
by Third Son
Thu Mar 05, 2020 7:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is it Possible to Opt-out of Fidelity Premium Services?
Replies: 37
Views: 4124

Re: Is it Possible to Opt-out of Fidelity Premium Services?

My experience with Fidelity is that they try to gently push their products but cease to do so if you request. Just say no :D. I find their approach very non invasive.
by Third Son
Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 21201
Views: 2876650

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Now would be as good a time as any. Age? Years to retirement? Any fixed income requirements? Fidelity equivalent is FXKAX....but not advising you what to do. Thanks! Low 40s, probably 2-5 years from retirement. Figuring on ~$130,000/year in retirement, should have ~$5.5mil invested Nice...you have ...
by Third Son
Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 21201
Views: 2876650

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

pesos wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:12 pm sitting on a LOT of cash right now and not sure when to get in! :?
just vtsax it all? fidelity equivalent?
Now would be as good a time as any. Age? Years to retirement? Any fixed income requirements?

Fidelity equivalent is FXKAX....but not advising you what to do.
by Third Son
Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lost 23K on Monday
Replies: 97
Views: 9295

Re: Lost 23K on Monday

While rolling over my wife's employer 401k to a traditional rollover IRA, we were in a cash position on Monday when the S&P went up about 5%. We sold at the Friday end of day price and then reinvested into similar assets on Monday end of day. My wife thinks that that we really lost about $23K +...
by Third Son
Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The 100% Stock Portfolio
Replies: 12
Views: 1824

Re: The 100% Stock Portfolio

You still have the luxury of time and can probably weather most storms at your age. As you get older your stamina may weaken.
by Third Son
Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I know I shouldn't sell but...
Replies: 79
Views: 8017

Re: I know I shouldn't sell but...

That’s pretty much all due to the fact that rates have gone down so significantly. There’s not much room for rates to go down from here with the 10 year at about 1%, so you’re locking in virtually no yield and have almost no price appreciation upside from rates going down, but plenty of room for ra...
by Third Son
Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is $1000 worth of 40 shares better than $1000 worth of 10 shares?
Replies: 30
Views: 2091

Re: Is $1000 worth of 40 shares better than $1000 worth of 10 shares?

I was wondering why it's better to "buy when shares are on sale". Then I tried doing some math last night. I wondered if having $1000 (of say Total Market Index) total from 40 shares is any better than $1000 total from 10 shares. I mean I would think that owning 40 share would be better t...
by Third Son
Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money you put in the stock market is NEVER lost?
Replies: 95
Views: 3548

Re: Money you put in the stock market is NEVER lost?

OP, sorry we're all jumping on you... Maybe you're talking shares? If you buy $1000 of VOO at 250 a share, you have 4 shares. If it drops $500 in value, you still have 4 shares (but only worth 125 a share now). If you then invest another $500, you now have 8 shares (worth 125 a share) As you keep b...
by Third Son
Tue Mar 03, 2020 4:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about (temporarily) moving all *retirement* stock to bonds - please help
Replies: 292
Views: 25727

Re: Thinking about (temporarily) moving all *retirement* stock to bonds - please help

This thread needs to be locked for archival purposes. Clearly it has run its course.
by Third Son
Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I know I shouldn't sell but...
Replies: 79
Views: 8017

Re: I know I shouldn't sell but...

A better question is how does anyone get comfortable buying bonds right now? Seems a whole lot scarier than buying equities. BND has a yield around 2% - that is akin to paying 50x earnings for a product that can't grow its earnings. The stock market is trading at 18.9x 2020 earnings assuming no gro...
by Third Son
Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My data doesn't match the consensus. What am I missing?
Replies: 44
Views: 2685

Re: My data doesn't match the consensus. What am I missing?

You are talking about $7K difference in value. What happens when you accumulate substantially more and some down years happen? Who will be more ahead then? You or your adviser? Where is the adviser charge in your data? What funds are represented by the numbers above? Stocks? Mutual funds? What is t...
by Third Son
Tue Mar 03, 2020 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My data doesn't match the consensus. What am I missing?
Replies: 44
Views: 2685

Re: My data doesn't match the consensus. What am I missing?

You are talking about $7K difference in value. What happens when you accumulate substantially more and some down years happen? Who will be more ahead then? You or your adviser? Where is the adviser charge in your data? What funds are represented by the numbers above? Stocks? Mutual funds? What is t...
by Third Son
Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My data doesn't match the consensus. What am I missing?
Replies: 44
Views: 2685

Re: My data doesn't match the consensus. What am I missing?

You are talking about $7K difference in value. What happens when you accumulate substantially more and some down years happen? Who will be more ahead then? You or your adviser? Where is the adviser charge in your data? What funds are represented by the numbers above? Stocks? Mutual funds? What is th...
by Third Son
Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
Replies: 147
Views: 11859

Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

I am sure Schrödinger has something to do with this.
by Third Son
Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I know I shouldn't sell but...
Replies: 79
Views: 8017

Re: I know I shouldn't sell but...

A better question is how does anyone get comfortable buying bonds right now? Seems a whole lot scarier than buying equities. BND has a yield around 2% - that is akin to paying 50x earnings for a product that can't grow its earnings. The stock market is trading at 18.9x 2020 earnings assuming no gro...
by Third Son
Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about (temporarily) moving all *retirement* stock to bonds - please help
Replies: 292
Views: 25727

Re: Thinking about (temporarily) moving all *retirement* stock to bonds - please help

I don't ignore the noise, I welcome it as a "buy" signal (in addition to the monthly/annual contributions already being made) "BE GREEDY WHEN OTHERS ARE FEARFUL ... AND FEARFUL WHEN OTHERS ARE GREEDY" -Mr. Buffet So, did you follow Buffet's advice today and sell stocks to buy bo...
by Third Son
Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I know I shouldn't sell but...
Replies: 79
Views: 8017

Re: I know I shouldn't sell but...

No......
by Third Son
Mon Mar 02, 2020 7:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I know I shouldn't sell but...
Replies: 79
Views: 8017

Re: I know I shouldn't sell but...

A better question is how does anyone get comfortable buying bonds right now? Seems a whole lot scarier than buying equities. BND has a yield around 2% - that is akin to paying 50x earnings for a product that can't grow its earnings. The stock market is trading at 18.9x 2020 earnings assuming no gro...
by Third Son
Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question about bonds AA
Replies: 19
Views: 904

Re: Question about bonds AA

This is a good article to read... ala Rick Ferri. Note chart 2

https://www.etf.com/sections/index-inve ... nopaging=1
by Third Son
Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question about bonds AA
Replies: 19
Views: 904

Re: Question about bonds AA

This is a good article to read... Ala Rick Ferri

https://www.etf.com/sections/index-inve ... nopaging=1