Search found 639 matches

by Stef
Sat Jan 04, 2020 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lump Sum Advice
Replies: 24
Views: 1483

Re: Lump Sum Advice

LookinAround wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:17 am
Japanese Nikkei from bubble to 12/31/2019
Image
Nikkei 225 is a price index, so no dividends included.
by Stef
Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best Large Cap Value Fund/ETF
Replies: 11
Views: 1610

Re: Best Large Cap Value Fund/ETF

Didn't want to make a new thread, so posting in this one. After reading more about factors: https://www.pwlcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/PWL-WP-Felix-Factor-Investing-with-ETFs_08-2019-Final.pdf I checked out some available Value ETFs and their performance difference is so big that it seems...
by Stef
Sat Jan 04, 2020 2:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: First post -- asset allocation with value tilt
Replies: 24
Views: 952

Re: First post -- asset allocation with value tilt

AVDV Japan 28.08% United Kingdom 16.17% Canada 9.44% Australia 7.24% Sweden 5.62% Doesn't this make you uncomfortable? US SCV is great because it's cheap and you can keep the region weights close to market cap. But investing 28% in Japan? Do international SCV even work like intended? Will they capt...
by Stef
Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What financial podcasts do you listen to?
Replies: 46
Views: 4991

Re: What financial podcasts do you listen to?

Ben Felix on Youtube.
by Stef
Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing or Speculation?
Replies: 59
Views: 3812

Re: Investing or Speculation?

Saw some interesting discussions recently with comments from Swedroe saying this is not the case. Sharpe ratio only uses volatility as a measure of risk, and factor approaches have other risks which are not apparent here. He felt that the risk-adjusted return of small-value was the same as the tota...
by Stef
Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"
Replies: 445
Views: 115064

Re: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"

HomerJ wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 2:21 pm
And keeping your expenses low pays off double, because not only are you saving more and more each year, but your "retirement number" of 25x expenses stays low too... and easier to achieve.
Only if you want to live like that once retired. Your expenses might increase substantially when retired.
by Stef
Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now is a good time to start tracking your net worth.
Replies: 123
Views: 11153

Re: Now is a good time to start tracking your net worth.

watchnerd wrote:
Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:53 am
I'm curious why some of you do the extra manual work of making it a spreadsheet.

There are online tools that do all of this automatically, including expense tracking.
1. It's more fun.
2. Customizable.
3. Will work in 30 years no matter what.
by Stef
Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18105
Views: 2556011

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Image
https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary ... ob_Rec.pdf

2nd false positive signal of yield curve inversion in history or the next big crash this year?
by Stef
Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now is a good time to start tracking your net worth.
Replies: 123
Views: 11153

Re: Now is a good time to start tracking your net worth.

I track savings rate, net worth, total yield and XIRR.

Investing is boring, tracking makes it fun.
by Stef
Fri Jan 03, 2020 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18105
Views: 2556011

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

DAX -1.71%, SP500 Future -1.08%.

Everybody is panicking.
by Stef
Fri Jan 03, 2020 3:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Lowers Expense Ratios on 56 Funds
Replies: 73
Views: 7636

Re: Vanguard Lowers Expense Ratios on 56 Funds

Is it really relevant what the ER is when you get below 0.1%?
by Stef
Fri Jan 03, 2020 2:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4122
Views: 344259

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

AHTFY wrote:
Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:12 am
I don't lever up to 3x. I use UPRO to get me up to about 140% when all my trend following indicators are positive.
Do you use SMA200?
by Stef
Thu Jan 02, 2020 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing or Speculation?
Replies: 59
Views: 3812

Re: Investing or Speculation?

I was joking.

I don't know why a SCV tilt would be speculating. There is enough data to support it.
by Stef
Thu Jan 02, 2020 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 4486
Views: 401218

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Another +30% year? :mrgreen:
by Stef
Thu Jan 02, 2020 5:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 900,000 student loan refinancing recomendations
Replies: 71
Views: 8211

Re: 900,000 student loan refinancing recomendations

This sounds so surreal for a European. Here it's basically for free to study whatever you want wherever you want.

Wouldn't it make sense to pay it off as fast as possible? If needed living like a rat for 2-3 years?
by Stef
Thu Jan 02, 2020 5:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller: Homeownership is a bad investment
Replies: 480
Views: 64569

Re: Shiller: Homeownership is a bad investment

Here in Switzerland you get mortgage interest rates of 0.5-1.0%/year. By law you need 20% in own assets to buy it and your mortgage has to go down to 66.6% within 15 years. After that you can do whatever you wanty keep the mortgage till you die or further pay it off (wouldn't make sense in terms of ...
by Stef
Thu Jan 02, 2020 5:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So now stocks only return 3% over time?
Replies: 95
Views: 11417

Re: So now stocks only return 3% over time?

It's not like that.

Arithmetric return: (12+8-2+5+6)/5 = 5.8%/year
Geometric return: (1.12*1.08*0.98*1.05*1.06)^(1/5) = 5.7%/year
by Stef
Thu Jan 02, 2020 5:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"
Replies: 445
Views: 115064

Re: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"

The one place that defied my inclination to keep a low-profile was my local bank. My account was often pressing up against the $250k FDIC limit and seemed to gain the attention of tellers and officers. One teller even passed me a blank deposit slip showing her name and phone number. I knew that sav...
by Stef
Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing or Speculation?
Replies: 59
Views: 3812

Re: Are You Investing or Speculating?

Why stop there? Let’s also declare that betting on which market (domestic, intl. developed, emerging) will outperform is also speculating. Yes. Everyone who isn't buying Vanguard Total World Stock or who doesn't have a 55/45 US/international allocation today is totally speculating aswell. Why not j...
by Stef
Thu Jan 02, 2020 2:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing or Speculation?
Replies: 59
Views: 3812

Re: Are You Investing or Speculating?

More reasons to buy small value.

The evidence is clear.
by Stef
Wed Jan 01, 2020 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Announcement for upcoming 2020 Boglehead Contest]
Replies: 73
Views: 2989

Re: 2020 Boglehead Contest

My guess is 3589.
by Stef
Wed Jan 01, 2020 7:41 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Is Gold really as bad as it made out to be?
Replies: 42
Views: 3285

Re: Is Gold really as bad as it made out to be?

House fire temperature: 600 °C
Gold melting point: 1064 °C

Anyway. Gold is pretty useless. No yield after inflation.
by Stef
Wed Jan 01, 2020 7:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST UPDATE
Replies: 12
Views: 1503

Re: 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST UPDATE

1789 wrote:
Tue Dec 31, 2019 9:40 pm
Definitely. Forum members should do better job in forecasting. :annoyed
Well they did on average?
by Stef
Wed Jan 01, 2020 6:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Before I found Bogleheads.....
Replies: 36
Views: 3438

Re: Before I found Bogleheads.....

6. Didn't know how poor I am.
by Stef
Wed Jan 01, 2020 3:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2019 accomplishments
Replies: 56
Views: 3463

Re: 2019 accomplishments

Got promoted in February after being 1 year in my old position (usually takes 2.5-4 years) Had a very successful year in my new job (#5 of 80 employers in my position) Learned everything what I know today about FIRE, frugal lifestyle and investing We moved to a much cheaper flat, made a budget and ...
by Stef
Tue Dec 31, 2019 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 4486
Views: 401218

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

MotoTrojan wrote:
Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:59 pm
Santa hasn’t come until we see a new all-time high there.
Only more reasons to tilt heavy to SCV :D
by Stef
Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't have faith in small and value premiums
Replies: 409
Views: 14590

Re: I don't have faith in small and value premiums

Well, there has been for the last ten years. But are you suggesting that "US stocks" is a factor? I don't believe that assertion will stand up to the same rigorous examination that small and value have survived, but you're welcome to prove me wrong. You'll have to decide if there is a US premium or...
by Stef
Tue Dec 31, 2019 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 4486
Views: 401218

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Santa went to SCV land :D
by Stef
Tue Dec 31, 2019 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Announcement for upcoming 2020 Boglehead Contest]
Replies: 73
Views: 2989

Re: 2020 Boglehead Contest

Interesting stats.

So the Bogleheads community is slighty closer than the experts?
by Stef
Tue Dec 31, 2019 6:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"
Replies: 445
Views: 115064

Re: "Stealth Wealth: I’m Just an Ordinary Average Guy"

I come out only at night, but still remain in the shadows. My last car was almost 24 years old. I'm in my 70's, but still wear some clothes from high school. When my sneakers are ready for the trash, I just use them for yard work. I dislike redeeming any portfolio assets and consider portfolio grow...
by Stef
Mon Dec 30, 2019 6:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you spend $$ on yourself?
Replies: 108
Views: 12166

Re: How do you spend $$ on yourself?

I stopped buying toys 2-3 years ago. Now trying to live as frugal as possible. But sometimes I think I'm missing out on things...I would love to buy a drone and play with it for example. But as a tech geek I would buy one for 1.5k $ and that money would be much better invested in stocks. Hard to tel...
by Stef
Mon Dec 30, 2019 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 4486
Views: 401218

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

[What happened --admin LadyGeek] with SCV today? Bought VIOV at 137.98 after market opening and now it's at 139.22 :o
by Stef
Mon Dec 30, 2019 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If You Only Invest in an Index, You’ll Never Beat It
Replies: 100
Views: 10250

Re: If You Only Invest in an Index, You’ll Never Beat It

Beat the market risk-adjusted, not absolute.

Pure Alpha isn't 100% stocks, I think it's 60% stocks.
by Stef
Mon Dec 30, 2019 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't have faith in small and value premiums
Replies: 409
Views: 14590

Re: I don't have faith in small and value premiums

I guess if you would be 100% strict about it, you would run out of stocks to invest in.
by Stef
Mon Dec 30, 2019 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If You Only Invest in an Index, You’ll Never Beat It
Replies: 100
Views: 10250

Re: If You Only Invest in an Index, You’ll Never Beat It

What about the investor who started with Ray Dalios fund in 2000? He never see 2 massive crashes in a row, he just saw a steady rising portfolio without any correction. And a massive outperformance by 2008/2009. Lets say we are in year 1997 and holding this fund. I bet majority of investors would ch...
by Stef
Mon Dec 30, 2019 12:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: yet another reason not to get a smart phone
Replies: 192
Views: 15843

Re: yet another reason not to get a smart phone

KyleAAA wrote:
Mon Dec 30, 2019 12:21 pm
Of course it would worry any rational person. They can do a lot more than just make statistics of big numbers. A LOT more. A human eye seeing it is 100% irrelevant.
Why? I'm a very rational person and I don't care.
by Stef
Mon Dec 30, 2019 12:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: yet another reason not to get a smart phone
Replies: 192
Views: 15843

Re: yet another reason not to get a smart phone

They certainly could be. It depends on how the raw data is used. Certainly if they are processing the images to extract, say, license plate numbers or identify individual faces that would count as spying, even if a human ever saw it. Lets say they are doing it right now. Why would that worry you? N...
by Stef
Mon Dec 30, 2019 12:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: yet another reason not to get a smart phone
Replies: 192
Views: 15843

Re: yet another reason not to get a smart phone

How is that not spying? I don’t understand the distinction you are making. Do you contend that spying requires an individual human to read your emails? Well, to make an analogy: is Google spying on us with Google Maps? They have photos on everything of the world, every house, every garden, every car.
by Stef
Mon Dec 30, 2019 11:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: yet another reason not to get a smart phone
Replies: 192
Views: 15843

Re: yet another reason not to get a smart phone

Nobody is spying on anyone. We are talking about billions of people producing massive online tracking everday.

This is so much data that it can only be processed automatically.
by Stef
Mon Dec 30, 2019 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2821
Views: 514321

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Do you post TWRR or MWRR?
by Stef
Mon Dec 30, 2019 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 4486
Views: 401218

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

You mean another 20%+ gain till end of next year? :shock:
by Stef
Mon Dec 30, 2019 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 4486
Views: 401218

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Used the day to invest the rest of my investable cash, now 100% in stocks :D

Buying the dip!
by Stef
Mon Dec 30, 2019 9:09 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Favorite country to live in after FIRE?
Replies: 191
Views: 18459

Re: Favorite country to live in after FIRE?

Italy Beautiful beaches, check. Adriatic side is sandier than Tyrrhenian side. Might have to skip a month or two on the beach, but most of the year it's fabulous, if you like beaches. Head south for warmth, but there will be a few short months that aren't tropically warm. And that's a relief. Good ...
by Stef
Mon Dec 30, 2019 6:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Please review my AA
Replies: 21
Views: 2901

Re: Please review my AA

I don't see anything wrong with this portfolio. US performed way better than expected and you hold 45% in ex-US? Maybe US will underperform for the next 10 years? You might exchange small cap with small cap value. You don't really want small cap growth stocks. They performed terrible in the last 90 ...
by Stef
Mon Dec 30, 2019 6:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any audiophiles on this forum?
Replies: 120
Views: 9231

Re: Any audiophiles on this forum?

I only listen to music on my PC. There I got a pair of Adam A7X with a XTZ 12.17 subwoofer. It wasn't that expensive, maybe 2300$ in total (with the DAC), but the sound is phenomenal.
by Stef
Mon Dec 30, 2019 3:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 4486
Views: 401218

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

MotoTrojan wrote:
Mon Dec 30, 2019 3:21 am
Not seeing that on my end.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ES=F/