Search found 6859 matches

by Call_Me_Op
Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Short-term Treasury bills while we move and re-allocate portfolio
Replies: 16
Views: 1557

Re: Short-term Treasury bills while we move and re-allocate portfolio

Keeping funds that you plan to deploy in the near future in T-bills is a fine idea - there is nothing safer and more liquid. The easiest way to buy them is to open a brokerage account - such as at Fidelity. You can let them mature into a money market account and then use them to buy other investment...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Mar 31, 2018 6:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: In September I will turn 70. A question on rebalancing
Replies: 6
Views: 1073

Re: In September I will turn 70. A question on rebalancing

I would definitely rebalance between equity asset classes. Based upon the stated reason for your equities, I would let them otherwise ride.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Mar 30, 2018 7:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Personal Excess Liability Insurance - Umbrella Insurance
Replies: 55
Views: 4355

Re: Personal Excess Liability Insurance - Umbrella Insurance

To inject a factoid into this discussion, it has been reported (by experienced lawyers, in past threads) that they have never seen a case where the payout went beyond liability limits of insurance policy. I do not know why this would be the case, but this has been said.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Mar 30, 2018 7:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is backtesting worthless? Are there ANY insights you can get from it?
Replies: 69
Views: 5319

Re: Is backtesting worthless? Are there ANY insights you can get from it?

Whenever backtesting is brought up people remind us that the past performance isn't indicative of future results. One needs to be careful in interpreting that statement. Of course it is not useless - but it can be misused. If backtesting is done over a sufficiently long time period - particularly i...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Mar 27, 2018 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard sends out erroneous "not enough money in settlement fund" notice]
Replies: 94
Views: 7086

Re: Concerns with Vanguard

I like "free riding" at Fidelity because as a Boglehead investor I can use any of their no transaction fee index funds, or Blackrocks commission free iShares ETF's, and create Vanguard like products and costs or better. If I do need something Fidelity's customer service is good (meaning they pick u...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Mar 27, 2018 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is anyone buying CDs now instead of I bonds?
Replies: 22
Views: 3734

Re: Is anyone buying CDs now instead of I bonds?

My only concern with IBonds is that (as I understand it) Treasury Direct offers no reimbursement if your bonds are stolen. In contrast, federal law protects bank accounts as long as the fraud is reported within 60 days.
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Mar 26, 2018 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)
Replies: 29
Views: 2603

Re: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)

I am simply pointing-out that based upon long-term historical performance of the US stock market, we have under-performed over the past 20 years. You can place zero weight on that fact - but it is still a fact. I agree it is a fact, and you are correct, I place zero weight on that fact in making in...
by Call_Me_Op
Mon Mar 26, 2018 6:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)
Replies: 29
Views: 2603

Re: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)

I am simply pointing-out that based upon long-term historical performance of the US stock market, we have under-performed over the past 20 years. You can place zero weight on that fact - but it is still a fact. I agree it is a fact, and you are correct, I place zero weight on that fact in making in...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Mar 25, 2018 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the likely future value of $200K in 30 years versus what Fidelity thinks?
Replies: 28
Views: 4003

Re: What is the likely future value of $200K in 30 years versus what Fidelity thinks?

I tried the Planning calculator on Fidelity and for where I'm trending the "substantially below average" return would yield $850K where the average return would yield $2.5M in 30 years. They don't disclose what the annual interest is in these cases (but can figure out). Also, it assumes I contribut...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Mar 25, 2018 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on rising rate 5-year CD
Replies: 6
Views: 622

Re: Thoughts on rising rate 5-year CD

Is this a direct CD or brokered?
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Mar 25, 2018 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sequence of Return Risk for Retirees - Consuello Mack / WealthTrack
Replies: 18
Views: 1993

Re: Sequence of Return Risk for Retirees - Consuello Mack / WealthTrack

The example he used (3 brothers) was based upon a very high withdrawal rate that nobody should use (6%), and 100% equities (no cushion). It was IMO designed for impact, and not realistic. Nevertheless, I enjoy watching her show.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Mar 25, 2018 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)
Replies: 29
Views: 2603

Re: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)

If one were to forget about the CAPE Ratio and most other tools for predicting future equity returns and look at the US stock market performance over the past 20 years compared to the longer-term (say since 1972) they will find that the CAGR from 1972-2018 was 10.4%, but the CAGR from 1998-2018 (la...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Mar 25, 2018 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Issue With Door Knob
Replies: 14
Views: 1314

Re: Issue With Door Knob

When I first read the title of the thread, I thought is was related to OCD.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Mar 25, 2018 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)
Replies: 29
Views: 2603

Re: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)

What's nice about that figure is you can see that we are below the trend line. And you can see that the latest bull market is simply digging us out of a hole produced by the last couple of bear markets. As of Jan 2018 we were (quite a bit) above the historic trend line. The Feb/Mar pullback has sim...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Mar 25, 2018 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)
Replies: 29
Views: 2603

Re: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)

What's nice about that figure is you can see that we are below the trend line. We were below the trendline in 2012 (date of figure). Figure updated would show that we are significantly ABOVE trendline I assume. I make an error in time - how fallible of me. - The Lonely Squire of Gothos (From the or...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Mar 25, 2018 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Protecting principal with no risk: seeking validation Im not crazy or stupid
Replies: 31
Views: 3800

Re: Protecting principal with no risk: seeking validation Im not crazy or stupid

I am also very conservative. But I adjust my equity allocation down to a level where I am comfortable. That has never been at zero, but I don't fault you for doing what you did.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Mar 25, 2018 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)
Replies: 29
Views: 2603

Re: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)

What's nice about that figure is you can see that we are below the trend line. And you can see that the latest bull market is simply digging us out of a hole produced by the last couple of bear markets.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Mar 25, 2018 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invests money, 3 days later the market tanks.
Replies: 58
Views: 7744

Re: Invests money, 3 days later the market tanks.

jackhensy wrote:
Sat Mar 24, 2018 11:13 pm
I invested $6500 on 3-20-18. Then the next day Jerome Powell raises interest rates. The stock market tanks on 3-23-18 and I lose $3,500.
Non-sequitur - your facts are uncoordinated.

-Nomad
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Mar 25, 2018 6:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump Sum in Taxable Account - Invest all at once or dollar cost average?
Replies: 42
Views: 2307

Re: Lump Sum in Taxable Account - Invest all at once or dollar cost average?

Dollar cost averaging never makes sense and is purely an emotional reaction. Since when is emotion unimportant? I think it makes a lot of sense - for that very reason. It is also not correct to say it "never makes sense" financially. It does about 40% of the time. Would you cash out and DCA your $1...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Mar 25, 2018 6:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anxious about age, career, and housing costs
Replies: 60
Views: 5789

Re: Anxious about age, career, and housing costs

A house should not be viewed in terms of its investment potential; it is a lifestyle choice. Having a paid-off house, where you have a great deal of control over your environment and can never be evicted is a great feeling. If (like me) you like to not be bothered when at home and you like to feel s...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Mar 25, 2018 6:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)
Replies: 29
Views: 2603

Argument Supporting Strong Future Equity Returns (?)

If one were to forget about the CAPE Ratio and most other tools for predicting future equity returns and look at the US stock market performance over the past 20 years compared to the longer-term (say since 1972) they will find that the CAGR from 1972-2018 was 10.4%, but the CAGR from 1998-2018 (las...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Mar 24, 2018 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Effect of interest rates on my bond funds
Replies: 46
Views: 4392

Re: Effect of interest rates on my bond funds

However, the coming rate increases are already priced in. If pricing was efficient the yield on the 10 year TRSY would be way over 3%. I don't think the market believes the rate increases will actually happen. That doesn't imply inefficiency. An efficient market is one where information is widely d...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Mar 23, 2018 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m looking for a word...
Replies: 114
Views: 10149

Re: I’m looking for a word...

The word "effect" seems to be the general term.
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Losing friends/family when wealthy
Replies: 118
Views: 11177

Re: Losing friends/family when wealthy

I am in my late 30's and have experiencing some hostility from friends/family due to what I perceive as jealousy. I drive modest vehicles and live in a small home. My job pays well working for the government, but does not appear to have such perception of high status. For most of my adult life, me ...
by Call_Me_Op
Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump Sum in Taxable Account - Invest all at once or dollar cost average?
Replies: 42
Views: 2307

Re: Lump Sum in Taxable Account - Invest all at once or dollar cost average?

MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 5:05 pm
Dollar cost averaging never makes sense and is purely an emotional reaction.
Since when is emotion unimportant? I think it makes a lot of sense - for that very reason. It is also not correct to say it "never makes sense" financially. It does about 40% of the time.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What Budget? Do you keep one?
Replies: 116
Views: 8464

Re: What Budget? Do you keep one?

I loosely track my budget but do not "stick" one religiously. I have noticed that it keeps getting bigger - my personal inflation.
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering a CD ladder
Replies: 45
Views: 7653

Re: Considering a CD ladder

For non-brokered CDs, return of principal prior to maturity typically involves a penalty of some amount of interest. Those conditions are known at purchase time and are not dependent on interest rates. People that want that kind of behavior use CDs. It's a good point that when people refer to "CDs"...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Mar 22, 2018 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering a CD ladder
Replies: 45
Views: 7653

Re: Considering a CD ladder

A CD would not have lost any principle for sure. Bonds do not lose principal either. They lose market value when rates increase - not principal. A rolling CD ladder would also lose market value. There is no difference. Market value is meaningless if you hold to maturity. Its like saying you lose mo...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Mar 22, 2018 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maybe Ramsey is right
Replies: 43
Views: 9874

Re: Maybe Ramsey is right

The sad thing is that a monkey throwing darts, assuming he given free trades, will beat the market 50% of the time over a 15 year period (net of expenses). In fact, I would argue that the monkey is likely to beat the market more than 50% of the time because he will choose small caps in greater propo...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Mar 22, 2018 7:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we missing recession /bear market beginning
Replies: 174
Views: 18861

Re: Are we missing recession /bear market beginning

It seems to me that on most days recently , the stock market is down on some excuse or other . It used to be the other way round till recently . Is this because a bear market / recession has already started ? Any changes to my portfolio I should be making? There is no way of knowing when the next r...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Mar 21, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Federal Reserve hikes interest rate]
Replies: 34
Views: 4354

Re: Fed raises the fed rate, markets do not look efficient

I know why bond funds go down when the Fed raises rates (or other long term rates go up), but I find it odd that on the day the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points BND goes down .25%. If the markets are efficient then these rate increases should already be priced into the fund price. Everyone knows...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Mar 21, 2018 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering a CD ladder
Replies: 45
Views: 7653

Re: Considering a CD ladder

Golfview wrote:
Wed Mar 21, 2018 11:43 am
A CD would not have lost any principle for sure.
Bonds do not lose principal either. They lose market value when rates increase - not principal. A rolling CD ladder would also lose market value. There is no difference.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Mar 21, 2018 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering a CD ladder
Replies: 45
Views: 7653

Re: Considering a CD ladder

Golfview wrote:
Wed Mar 21, 2018 11:07 am
Don't feel bad Vanguard total bond fund is down almost 2%just this year!
A CD ladder with similar duration would be down about as much.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Mar 21, 2018 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering a CD ladder
Replies: 45
Views: 7653

Re: Considering a CD ladder

No, it's fine. You have some minor misconceptions (regarding the differences between bonds and bond funds), but that's OK.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Mar 21, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Treasury Bill Rates
Replies: 32
Views: 3577

Re: Treasury Bill Rates

jpsc wrote:
Tue Mar 20, 2018 7:22 pm
If you plan to invest 10K or less, I would buy I-bonds
These are not interchangeable. You need to wait at least i year to cash Ibonds, or 5 years to do so w/o penalty.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Mar 21, 2018 6:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Personal Excess Liability Insurance - Umbrella Insurance
Replies: 55
Views: 4355

Re: Personal Excess Liability Insurance - Umbrella Insurance

One of my buddies that I estimate his net worth at around 5 million buys 2 million in umbrella protection. He figures that he will get a vigorous enough defense from the insurance company for them to protect the 2 million, that is remaining three will also be safe. There are not three remaining, th...
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Mar 21, 2018 6:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Personal Excess Liability Insurance - Umbrella Insurance
Replies: 55
Views: 4355

Re: Personal Excess Liability Insurance - Umbrella Insurance

AI've also heard that insurance companies make huge profit from these policies because claims are rarely filed or paid. In other words, the probability of being sued at these levels of coverages is very low. So what? Let them make a profit. Is it better to refuse insurance to spite them and then lo...
by Call_Me_Op
Tue Mar 20, 2018 7:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: need $5000.00 , take from U.S. treasury bonds or brokerage account
Replies: 10
Views: 877

Re: need $5000.00 , take from U.S. treasury bonds or brokerage account

The Treasury bonds are EE Series 30 year Treasury Bonds that mature in 2022. The face value of each when purchased was $5000.00. They have grown over twenty something years. I sold only 1 of 6 and it made my federal tax go up is all I am saying. I have an accountant I go to each year for taxes, and...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Mar 18, 2018 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DCA falling bond funds?
Replies: 20
Views: 2584

Re: DCA falling bond funds?

InvestInLife wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:49 am
Does it make sense to DCA my Long-Term Treasury fund (FLBAX) as it falls?
Would you buy an individual 30-year bond paying 3%? If not, you should not be in that fund.
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wrapping my head around bond funds
Replies: 57
Views: 6133

Re: Wrapping my head around bond funds

I continue to be amazed at the confusion people have over bonds and bond funds. A bond is a debt instrument. The bondholder (you) receives a fixed interest payment (paid by the bond issuer) at fixed intervals (usually every 6 months) and return of principal (assuming no default) at bond maturity. A ...
by Call_Me_Op
Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 19162

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

For the record, I have a few months cash in a checking account and emergency cash is in a short-term bond index fund. The emergency money is “waiting to be spent” although it may never be spent. I don’t expect much return if any from this money over taxes and inflation, but that’s not the point. By...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Mar 17, 2018 6:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No risk retirement withdraw strategy - WARM
Replies: 35
Views: 4456

Re: No risk retirement withdraw strategy - WARM

The Wasting Asset Retirement Model (WARM) http://jlcollinsnh.com/2017/09/09/sleeping-soundly-thru-a-market-crash-the-wasting-asset-retirement-model/ In this article, a couple in their 50’s have a 2 million dollars nest egg from which they’re withdrawing $40k a year. So they should be good for 50 ye...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Mar 10, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Protecting large assets from lawsuit
Replies: 30
Views: 3095

Re: Protecting large assets from lawsuit

steve_giblets001 wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 1:06 pm
Yes sorry if that was vague -- a sense of net worth can be found by searching due to prior work with old companies I owned. Seeking personal liability protection, not business.
You should be able to get at least 10 mil. Just call around. The cost apparently goes up a lot after about 5 mil.
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Protecting large assets from lawsuit
Replies: 30
Views: 3095

Re: Protecting large assets from lawsuit

steve_giblets001 wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:21 am
Not a physician, but unfortunately we'd show up in google (company stuff) making us a target.
I assume you are aware that umbrella insurance does not cover business-related lawsuits.
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Mar 10, 2018 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Torn between Vanguard, Fidelity and Schwab
Replies: 182
Views: 25129

Re: Torn between Vanguard, Fidelity and Schwab

Honestly, although I love Vanguard's philosophy, I would strongly consider Fidelity (as long as you are able to recognize and ignore their sales-pitches). They have enough very-low cost vehicles, but the tipping factors are their excellent 24/7 customer service as well as their easy-to-navigate webs...
by Call_Me_Op
Sat Mar 10, 2018 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 19162

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

Differentiating cash from bonds is really splitting hairs. I like 1 year t-bills right now. Over 2% yield and as safe and liquid as you can get. I use these instead of money market funds or short-term bond funds. Yes, but individual T-bills are considered cash. In my view, cash and bonds are one in...
by Call_Me_Op
Thu Mar 08, 2018 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 19162

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

Differentiating cash from bonds is really splitting hairs. I like 1 year t-bills right now. Over 2% yield and as safe and liquid as you can get. I use these instead of money market funds or short-term bond funds.
by Call_Me_Op
Wed Mar 07, 2018 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing bonds
Replies: 7
Views: 962

Re: Rebalancing bonds

I have read a lot of bond shaming lately, due to bonds' questionable performance. My thought is if bonds are low, it is a good time to buy. This makes sense for stocks, but does this thinking apply equally to the bond market? It always makes sense to buy bonds in conformance to your IPS (Investment...