Search found 1781 matches

by patrick
Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.
Replies: 151
Views: 15198

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

If you need a computer which is at least as powerful as a $2000 computer purchased 15 years ago, the price you had to pay 15 years ago was $2000, but now it is under $400. If only the best computers sold today suit you, that means that you are demanding something previously not available in the con...
by patrick
Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.
Replies: 151
Views: 15198

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

One can find more discussion of the chart in this Forbes article from 2017. That article could benefit from some serious proofreading and spell checking. Is that what's happened to Forbes? Anyway, I guess I have a bit of a problem with Hedonic quality adjustments. If the price of a new computer sta...
by patrick
Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 160
Views: 12641

Re: There Is No Gold

FWIW - some common dealers of gold and silver bars have some stock available reasonably close to spot prices. Could you name at least one? The ones I look at (Kitco, usgoldbureau) have very high premiums and limited supply. Kitco itself is selling gold at 2% over the spot price: https://online.kitc...
by patrick
Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Opinion on Cash portion of portfolio
Replies: 11
Views: 1130

Re: Opinion on Cash portion of portfolio

I don't see much reason to invest in ultra short treasuries as they currently yield even less than FDIC insured accounts. Series I savings bonds are probably a better "near cash" asset as they are inflation protected, have higher yields than regular inflation protect bonds, have a 0% semiannual floo...
by patrick
Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 160
Views: 12641

Re: There Is No Gold

FWIW - some common dealers of gold and silver bars have some stock available reasonably close to spot prices. Could you name at least one? The ones I look at (Kitco, usgoldbureau) have very high premiums and limited supply. Kitco itself is selling gold at 2% over the spot price: https://online.kitc...
by patrick
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not go EE bonds (instead of bond funds)?
Replies: 177
Views: 12579

Re: Why not go EE bonds (instead of bond funds)?

Surely, probabilistic and general answers should at least be grounded in possibilities - I hope we can agree on that. So far, I haven't seen anyone present even a possible scenario in which EE Bonds lose to the various things they're being compared to. Here is a simple scenario where EE bonds lose ...
by patrick
Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not go EE bonds (instead of bond funds)?
Replies: 177
Views: 12579

Re: Why not go EE bonds (instead of bond funds)?

We're probably drifting off-topic, but generally speaking the ultimate goal of any saving/investing strategy is to fund future consumption. That future consumption is the liability, right? There can be little doubt that future non-discretionary expenditures can be considered to be real liabilities,...
by patrick
Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Green Dot online savings account is 3% APY - what?
Replies: 10
Views: 1548

Re: Green Dot online savings account is 3% APY - what?

Don't forget the $7.95 monthly fee on this card, which adds up to $95.40 annually. If you kept the full $10,000 in there, your net interest rate after subtracting the fee would be more like 2.05% (and it's worse when you consider that the full 3% is taxable income). I'd suggest looking at https://ww...
by patrick
Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Do So Many Recommend 70% - 100% Stocks?
Replies: 167
Views: 9797

Re: Why Do So Many Recommend 70% - 100% Stocks?

Note also that nominal bonds (such as those in total bond index) can lose purchasing power over 25 year periods. For example (according to the inflation calculator on https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=448.17&year1=198012&year2=195512 and historical returns from http://pages.stern.nyu.edu...
by patrick
Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Do So Many Recommend 70% - 100% Stocks?
Replies: 167
Views: 9797

Re: Why Do So Many Recommend 70% - 100% Stocks?

It looks like the examples you give include the additional contributions as part of the portfolio growth. If you remove them (set cashflows to none on that site) so as to see only the returns of the investments themselves, the annualized returns are 8.74% for stocks and 5.12% for bonds. Bond yields ...
by patrick
Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does anyone invest in international funds?
Replies: 306
Views: 18674

Re: Why does anyone invest in international funds?

I'm a 90% international guy, but not trying to cram that down anyone's throat. I'm just dreaming of the day I can smile with my superior returns and can see the sad faces of the US only crowd who start getting a bad case of FOMO. Superior international returns have happened over the last two weeks....
by patrick
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does anyone invest in international funds?
Replies: 306
Views: 18674

Re: Why does anyone invest in international funds?

International has CRUSHED domestic since March 19, 2020:

+5.33% VTIAX (Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund Admiral)
+1.98% VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral)
by patrick
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation
Replies: 63
Views: 4930

Re: Inflation

The breakeven inflation rate with 10 year TIPS (vs. 10 year Treasuries) is only .97%. So the market must (1) believe that inflation will be very low over the next decade, (2) be placing significant value on TIPS illiquidity premium, or (3) adhere to a combination of #1 and #2. .97% seems like a ver...
by patrick
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Please help me follow my IPS by telling me what my IPS says
Replies: 6
Views: 480

Please help me follow my IPS by telling me what my IPS says

I had first posted my IPS here nearly 10 nearly ago (https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=61915). The portion regarding percentage in stocks is as follows: Portfolio will stay at 84% stocks while under 250K, reduced to 80% when reaching 250K, and another 4% for each further multiple of 2...
by patrick
Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The ideal investment percentage in cryptocurrencies.
Replies: 42
Views: 1953

Re: The ideal investment percentage in cryptocurrencies.

You could start by looking at the market weight. The total market cap of cryptocurrencies (according to https://coinmarketcap.com/) is about 0.225 trillion dollars. The total float adjusted market cap of equities (starting with https://research.ftserussell.com/Analytics/Factsheets/Home/DownloadSingl...
by patrick
Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Move from bonds to Money Market,CDs, savings acct, etc.?[UPDATE]
Replies: 98
Views: 8962

Re: Move from bonds to Money Market,CDs, savings acct, etc.?

Listen, all I claimed is that investors who face inflation risk should take steps to protect against it (or at least plan for a way to manage it) and cash instruments like CDs, money market funds, savings accounts, etc. probably aren't terribly effective at doing this. Long-term nominal bonds proba...
by patrick
Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Move from bonds to Money Market,CDs, savings acct, etc.?[UPDATE]
Replies: 98
Views: 8962

Re: Move from bonds to Money Market,CDs, savings acct, etc.?

For some investors, monthly Social Security payments (which are fully indexed to inflation) or a CPI-linked annuity will cover the vast majority - or even all - of their non-discretionary retirement expenses. These investors might have little need to protect against inflation volatility compared to...
by patrick
Sun Mar 08, 2020 4:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Move from bonds to Money Market,CDs, savings acct, etc.?[UPDATE]
Replies: 98
Views: 8962

Re: Move from bonds to Money Market,CDs, savings acct, etc.?

I never said anything about being “immune to inflation” nor did I recommend assuming “zero inflation”. Neither of those things follow from the observation that different people have different degrees of sensitivity to inflation volatility and/or unexpected inflation. Then what are you saying? When ...
by patrick
Sun Mar 08, 2020 1:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Move from bonds to Money Market,CDs, savings acct, etc.?[UPDATE]
Replies: 98
Views: 8962

Re: Move from bonds to Money Market,CDs, savings acct, etc.?

So, for me, the best strategy is to minimize my interest rate and inflation risks by matching my portfolio's interest rate and inflation durations as closely as I can. If I do that successfully, I'm in the lucky position of not caring what happens to interest rates in the future. That strategy woul...
by patrick
Sun Mar 08, 2020 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Move from bonds to Money Market,CDs, savings acct, etc.?[UPDATE]
Replies: 98
Views: 8962

Re: Move from bonds to Money Market,CDs, savings acct, etc.?

So, for me, the best strategy is to minimize my interest rate and inflation risks by matching my portfolio's interest rate and inflation durations as closely as I can. If I do that successfully, I'm in the lucky position of not caring what happens to interest rates in the future. That strategy woul...
by patrick
Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Move from bonds to Money Market,CDs, savings acct, etc.?[UPDATE]
Replies: 98
Views: 8962

Re: Move from bonds to Money Market,CDs, savings acct, etc.?

There is no particular reason to assume interest rates will stay where they are. They could move in either direction. Absent a special ability to see into the bond market's future, current interest rates are all we know. Focusing solely on current rates is only appropriate if you're matching your a...
by patrick
Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Move from bonds to Money Market,CDs, savings acct, etc.?[UPDATE]
Replies: 98
Views: 8962

Re: Move from bonds to Money Market,CDs, savings acct, etc.?

The 10-year treasury bond is yielding only 0.74% while the best bank accounts are up to around 2%. Even if the banks pass through the 0.5% rate cut tomorrow they'll still be paying much more than bonds. At this point bonds will lose if interest rates simply stay where they are. There's no way of kn...
by patrick
Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Move from bonds to Money Market,CDs, savings acct, etc.?[UPDATE]
Replies: 98
Views: 8962

Re: Move from bonds to Money Market,CDs, savings acct, etc.?

Please keep in mind that everything you know about the futility of being a market timer in stocks applies equally to being a market timer in bonds. People - even otherwise smart people - have been saying there is "little upside left" in bonds for years (possibly decades) and they've continued to be...
by patrick
Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Move from bonds to Money Market,CDs, savings acct, etc.?[UPDATE]
Replies: 98
Views: 8962

Re: Move from bonds to Money Market,CDs, savings acct, etc.?

Rates have been near zero before. What did you do during 2008-2015? I am asking sincerely. I assume that you were working and didn't think about it too much. Bond yields have never been this low before. The 10-year treasury bond now yields 0.74%, well below the previous low of 1.37% on July 5, 2016...
by patrick
Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hottest Bond Market in History Is Starting to Make Some Nervous
Replies: 63
Views: 6984

Re: Hottest Bond Market in History Is Starting to Make Some Nervous

Current interest rates are indeed a problem even without expecting interest rates to rise. If interest rates simply stay right where there are now, future bond returns will be abysmal . That depends what inflation is. If we have deflation, current low nominal yields could look positive in real term...
by patrick
Wed Mar 04, 2020 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hottest Bond Market in History Is Starting to Make Some Nervous
Replies: 63
Views: 6984

Re: Hottest Bond Market in History Is Starting to Make Some Nervous

Current interest rates are indeed a problem even without expecting interest rates to rise. If interest rates simply stay right where there are now, future bond returns will be abysmal. As already mentioned, US Savings bonds are a possible solution for individual investors. Even ignoring the tax adva...
by patrick
Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How quickly did you receive your 2019 tax refund?
Replies: 111
Views: 8679

Re: How quickly did you receive your 2019 tax refund?

February 1: Tax returns filed electronically
February 8: Connecticut refund received in the mail
February 12: Federal refund received by direct deposit
February 24: New York refund received by direct deposit
by patrick
Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Can Low Retirement Savings Be Rationalized?"
Replies: 184
Views: 10265

Re: "Can Low Retirement Savings Be Rationalized?"

The conclusion is not quite so shocking considering that they are talking about people with incomes low enough that Social Security will replace a high percentage. Even so, some things seem off here: First, age at retirement isn't always 67. I would like to have the option to retire earlier than tha...
by patrick
Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Role of money market fund in a portfolio
Replies: 29
Views: 2346

Re: Role of money market fund in a portfolio

Right now you can get 2.1% on a plain bank account which is much higher than money market funds. More shockingly, for the moment the bank account even yields slightly higher than the 2.07% currently on offer from total bond market!
by patrick
Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The few who can use Plan B at all should not invoke it now
Replies: 13
Views: 2190

Re: The few who can use Plan B at all should not invoke it now

This is after a 13% drop, what happens after 30%? 50%? The classic Plan B thread talked about selling when the "portfolio gets to the point we can't afford further losses" rather than based on a percentage drop from the peak. As I pointed out , stock prices today are still where they were a few yea...
by patrick
Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The few who can use Plan B at all should not invoke it now
Replies: 13
Views: 2190

Re: The few who can use Plan B at all should not invoke it now

4. You must be able to forever refrain from going back into stocks (unless you receive additional funds) after invoking Plan B. If stocks go down further, you must not decide that they're finally near the bottom and it's safe to buy back at lower prices. If stocks rebound quickly you must not decid...
by patrick
Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The few who can use Plan B at all should not invoke it now
Replies: 13
Views: 2190

The few who can use Plan B at all should not invoke it now

EDIT: I don't recommend Plan B for anyone. Beyond its flagrant conflicts with Boglehead principles, Plan B applies to few people and doesn't recommend selling now for most of them. My recommendation for the few who do care greatly about staying above a pre-defined minimum and currently have more tha...
by patrick
Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Yield vs. Money Market Yield
Replies: 19
Views: 2100

Re: Bond Yield vs. Money Market Yield

Even more shocking is that you can now get 2.1% on a plain bank account. Not only do bank accounts beat money markets (as they have for a while) but now they are slightly ahead of total bond market too.
by patrick
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who’s Buying Bitcoin?
Replies: 307
Views: 19044

Re: Who’s Buying Bitcoin?

I’m about to pull trigger and buy bitcoin, ethereum, and some Litecoin tomorrow. Who else is investing in these? What % allocation are you going with? If you invest at market weight compared to stocks, the amount would be rather small. According to https://research.ftserussell.com/Analytics/Factshe...
by patrick
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: why are triple leveraged ETFs a bad idea?
Replies: 28
Views: 3197

Re: why are triple leveraged ETFs a bad idea?

4) Direxion says "These leveraged ETFs seek a return that is 300% or -300% of the return of their benchmark index for a single day ." They put the phrase "for a single day" in italics. Which is correct? a) It is technically true, so they have to disclose it. But by simple math, over any number of d...
by patrick
Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does International investment still make sense?
Replies: 312
Views: 15915

Re: Does International investment still make sense?

Some would discount a century of outperformance as statistical noise. Others don't. Indeed. Some people discount the huge outperformance of Australian stocks since 1900 and keep investing in the historically under-performing US stocks. False equivalence again. Australia is a tiny market when compar...
by patrick
Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who’s Buying Bitcoin?
Replies: 307
Views: 19044

Re: Who’s Buying Bitcoin?

Most important aspect: Bitcoin is the first asset in history of mankind that cannot be confiscated. Gold, stocks, real estate, bank accounts can all be frozen and confiscated. But sequence of characters stored in your brain cannot. And if you will mention the 5$ wrench attack then duress phrase or ...
by patrick
Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does International investment still make sense?
Replies: 312
Views: 15915

Re: Does International investment still make sense?

rascott wrote: Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:05 am Some would discount a century of outperformance as statistical noise. Others don't.
Indeed. Some people discount the huge outperformance of Australian stocks since 1900 and keep investing in the historically under-performing US stocks.
by patrick
Thu Nov 28, 2019 12:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 457(b) plan Safety??
Replies: 26
Views: 1695

Re: 457(b) plan Safety??

Since this is a governmental 457(b), the plan itself is safe in the event of employer bankruptcy. Mutual fund (or similar) investments within it are also safe from plan provider/fund company bankruptcy. However, your description above indicates this specific investment is at risk of insurance compan...
by patrick
Tue Nov 19, 2019 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wheres best place park emergency funds these days?
Replies: 47
Views: 6216

Re: Wheres best place park emergency funds these days?

HY checking acct - 3% up to $15K; you can double it to $30K if each spouse has one. VMMXX Years of Roth contributions 18 month 0% interest CC Which bank/financial institution are you using for the checking account? https://www.lmcu.org/personal/banking/checking-accounts/max-checking/ WOW this is th...
by patrick
Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest Rate Risk: Two Views
Replies: 126
Views: 10030

Re: Interest Rate Risk: Two Views

TIPs, not that Attractive What is responsible for the visible lack of interest in TIPs that made its market capitalization such a small fraction? Stocks are the true inflation fighters as opposed to the wanna-be TIPs. When stocks have a yearly return figure of 7% compared to a much lower bond retur...
by patrick
Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stable value funds?
Replies: 11
Views: 1082

Re: Stable value funds?

dalbright wrote: Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:15 am
The current 7 day yield is 1.97%.
That is not good considering you can get 2.55% on a regular savings account.
by patrick
Fri Aug 09, 2019 2:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds or just use Money Market/ Savings??
Replies: 25
Views: 3996

Re: Bonds or just use Money Market/ Savings??

Bond yields are bad but savings/money market yields are even worse.
by patrick
Thu Aug 08, 2019 2:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: thoughts on international funds
Replies: 67
Views: 6249

Re: thoughts on international funds

I think much of the international ballyhoo is because many on this board have lost so much money vs the US over the last decade they are bitter and want to prove they were right from a theoretical standpoint. Those people will never in their lifetimes regain the losses they have incurred by stubbor...
by patrick
Fri Aug 02, 2019 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best place for cash: money market (fido) vs saving account
Replies: 13
Views: 1853

Re: Best place for cash: money market (fido) vs saving account

I like the Orion FCU premium checking account, which pays 4% interest on balances of $30,000 or less. This is subject to a requirement to make 8 debit card purchases (on the MasterCard network aka "as credit") and $500 in ACH deposits per month. If you want more than $30,000 at this rate you can ope...
by patrick
Sat Jun 29, 2019 4:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: high interest savings & checking accounts make sense?
Replies: 20
Views: 2069

Re: high interest savings & checking accounts make sense?

tried to open an account with Orion but was denied because I live in WA state. Bummer, seems like a great deal with minimum hoops to have to jump through. Ideally a place I can store 25-30K and get 4-5% would be ideal. I realize I would have to jump through some hoops, but if they simply are making...
by patrick
Sat Jun 29, 2019 4:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: high interest savings & checking accounts make sense?
Replies: 20
Views: 2069

Re: high interest savings & checking accounts make sense?

Actually from the Premiere website: Have direct deposit of at least $500# Be enrolled in eStatements Use your debit card at least 25 times (ATM transactions don’t count) Those requirements are only for their checking account. Their money market deposit account lets you get high interest without doi...
by patrick
Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: high interest savings & checking accounts make sense?
Replies: 20
Views: 2069

Re: high interest savings & checking accounts make sense?

If your DCU primary savings balance is $1000 or less, you get 6.17% on your entire balance. If your DCU primary savings balance is greater than $1000, you get 6.17% on the first $1000 and 0.25% on the remainder of your balance. For instance, if your total balance is $1025, then $1000 of your money ...
by patrick
Fri Jun 28, 2019 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: high interest savings & checking accounts make sense?
Replies: 20
Views: 2069

Re: high interest savings & checking accounts make sense?

I have this account and I really do get 6.17% on it. It is true, they just use the larger accounts to subsidize the smaller ones. The interest rate is always 6.17% on the first $1000, and 0.25% on anything beyond that. The range simply means that if you have a total balance higher than $1000 the ov...