Search found 1042 matches

by Elysium
Sat Jan 16, 2016 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 282
Views: 53749

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

My EM returns since 2005 for each calendar year is below: 2005 34.7% 2006 32.63% 2007 45.64% 2008 -53.64% 2009 92.28% 2010 33.61% 2011 -25.85% 2012 19.31% 2013 -3.44% 2014 -4.55% 2015 -18.5% 2016 ??? I wish someone told me to sell at end of 07, 10, and 12, and then buy at beginning of 09, 12, and af...
by Elysium
Sat Jan 16, 2016 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 282
Views: 53749

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

I think this thread has too many optimists and/or wishful thinkers. I hope people are writing here in jest, the carnage in emerging markets is nowhere close to being done yet. I generally prefer EM to DM ex-US but would agree with you here. As long as China is 35% of the index we have clearly not s...
by Elysium
Fri Jan 15, 2016 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm sitting here watching FOX Business...14200??
Replies: 92
Views: 10645

Re: I'm sitting here watching FOX Business...14200??

14200 .. is that low or high, I thought I heard DOW 6000 from a well known and well respected fund manager, so if we are not at 6000 then isn't 14200 high ... I have no idea, seems to be lost in time warp.
by Elysium
Wed Jan 13, 2016 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My timing [stinks]!
Replies: 29
Views: 3729

Re: My timing sucks!

What is a large sum to you today will not be in 10 years from now, and 20, and 30, and so on ... Since you said you have 30 more years, this is likely only a very small amout considering where you want to get. One thing about bear markets is that you don't get notice saying when it is getting over, ...
by Elysium
Wed Jan 13, 2016 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How Am I Doing? 18 Years of Data
Replies: 47
Views: 6823

Re: How Am I Doing? 18 Years of Data

I have good records going back up to 15 years since 2001. I have only been investing for retirement since '99. The first few years investments were into fixed income/CD/I-Bonds etc most of which I used to pay for 20% down payment on a house and to purchase a car for cash. My AA during those years we...
by Elysium
Fri Jan 08, 2016 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I stop contributing to 401k
Replies: 16
Views: 2542

Re: Should I stop contributing to 401k

Paying interest on a 30 year mortgage is not an unusual thing to do, almost everyone does it, here you will find exceptions because this is an exceptionally frugal group of people. I believe that if you refinance to 30 year fixed that will make the cash flow better, and all of that interest is not l...
by Elysium
Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: So I have to wait approval to buy "a large amount" of vanguard mutual funds?
Replies: 16
Views: 2128

Re: So I have to wait approval to buy "a large amount" of vanguard mutual funds?

Hopefully this PM is educated enough to realize that I was at a lot more risk in GVAL than I will be in V USUX . :mrgreen: There you go, that is the reason, you said something bad about Vanguard that irked them, so they decided to give you a little lesson :twisted: Seriously, I think it's just a wa...
by Elysium
Fri Jan 08, 2016 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small value underperformance, DFA
Replies: 106
Views: 11631

Re: Small value underperformance, DFA

You either believe in the strategy or not. Looking at past performance, especially over such a short period as 10 years, is not a great idea. Once you decide on a strategy, you should just invest and ignore all such things as past performance. What matters is whether it worked out over your lifetime...
by Elysium
Thu Jan 07, 2016 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: worst first four opening days in HISTORY for S&P 500
Replies: 125
Views: 17039

Re: worst first four opening days in HISTORY for S&P 500

I will wait until 20% down before purchasing, until then will let all new money go into fixed income. Already have some funds from year end lump sum match that went into fixed income. Glad that I decided not to let it go into equities, but wait out. Experience from previous bear markets show that bu...
by Elysium
Thu Jan 07, 2016 7:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: helping a creative child grow
Replies: 40
Views: 2802

Re: helping a creative child grow

Parents can only help so much, but the most important thing is to keep them focused. It's very easy even for very bright kids to go sideways. Sounds like my son, he has IQ in the 140+ range, but he is on par with many other kids in an AA program, and plan to go to a STEM school where he will get opp...
by Elysium
Thu Jan 07, 2016 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6752
Views: 1469160

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

So I broke. I am seeing a lot of things I don't like in the market (not news articles). For the first time in my 12 years of investing as a Boglehead, I switched 90% out of Target Retirement 2045 and went to a Total Bond Index at least for the next 30 days. The 2007-2008 downturn didn't phase me a ...
by Elysium
Wed Jan 06, 2016 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: White House tours. How to book?
Replies: 18
Views: 2895

Re: White House tours. How to book?

It used to be as easy as just show up in front of the gate and stand in the line to get inside, and then do a tour of East wing and Rose gardens. This is all in the good old days before 911. I haven't tried ever since then, although as others have said writing to your representative works. Missing t...
by Elysium
Wed Jan 06, 2016 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO: what a terrible performance!!
Replies: 79
Views: 11642

Re: VWO: what a terrible performance!!

I've been invested in EM since 2005, and when I checked overall performance at end of 2015 I had an annualized return of -0.16% for the entire period, but when I break it down into two halves, the first half had average annualized returns of 19% and the second half had -8% (rounded figures). EM is v...
by Elysium
Mon Jan 04, 2016 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will Value outpeform Growth?
Replies: 62
Views: 7091

Re: When will Value outpeform Growth?

+1 to the post above. Value tilt isn't a bogle head principle. John Bogle has written an entire chapter on value vs. growth mutual funds in the book Commonsense on Mutual Fund Investing, and he goes over various charts and figures to show there isn't much difference in returns over long periods. It ...
by Elysium
Sat Jan 02, 2016 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Minivan or SUV?
Replies: 24
Views: 2917

Re: Minivan or SUV?

If those are your choices then wouldn't make too much of a difference since the Pilot is almost a minivan minus the extra cargo room.
by Elysium
Thu Dec 24, 2015 4:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Orlando or Hilton Head for spring break
Replies: 6
Views: 674

Re: Orlando or Hilton Head for spring break

I have to talk to them and find out which resort, could be Grande Vista in Orlando, these are all the seven properties they have: http://www.marriott.com/hotel-search/orlando.hotels.florida.united-states.marriott-vacation-club-international.travel/ I think in HHI they only have one, the main thing i...
by Elysium
Thu Dec 24, 2015 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Healthcare funds
Replies: 28
Views: 2620

Re: Healthcare funds

Vg Healthcare fund. This is the only sector fund I own. In the book "Commensense on Mutual Fund investing", John Bogle said you may invest in any one sector fund including Healthcare, Energy, REIT, or Technology. If I were to invest in only one sector I decided it will be Healthcare, now if the REIT...
by Elysium
Thu Dec 24, 2015 12:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Orlando or Hilton Head for spring break
Replies: 6
Views: 674

Orlando or Hilton Head for spring break

I have a promotional offer with Marriott vacation club that will expire by the end of March 2016. It is already prepaid $399 for 3 nights at one of their select resort properties. I do not have too much funds dedicated for vacation next year, and I would like to drive down. They have properties in O...
by Elysium
Tue Dec 22, 2015 9:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you spend on groceries?
Replies: 109
Views: 10541

Re: How much do you spend on groceries?

I feel fairly confident in my previous reading and understanding of the topic, I work for a health company that makes a lot of money off numerous marketing gimmicks including the organic label. The real issue is, unless you grow it yourself or at the very least personally know the grower, you have ...
by Elysium
Tue Dec 22, 2015 5:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you spend on groceries?
Replies: 109
Views: 10541

Re: How much do you spend on groceries?

or spend a ton more on what is mostly food marketing gimmicks (organic, Paleo, assuming the produce at Whole Foods is somehow better than at the local market...). I don't think spending more on food has any correlation to eating healthier, but if you do, that's great. I most definitely do, especial...
by Elysium
Tue Dec 22, 2015 4:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Switching jobs for pay rise [and better role] worth it?
Replies: 15
Views: 1719

Re: Switching jobs for pay rise [and better role] worth it?

Yes, going to get the negotiations going after the holidays, preparing ground work now. Idea is to get house in order by mid Jan whether I take new job or continue with current job. I have learned over the years that if you don't complain once in a while about getting challenging roles and pay scal...
by Elysium
Tue Dec 22, 2015 4:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Switching jobs for pay rise [and better role] worth it?
Replies: 15
Views: 1719

Re: Switching jobs for pay rise [and better role] worth it?

Pay isn't everything. Commute, management type, office culture, job satisfaction, etc. also play a role. It sounds to me like you aren't happy now, thus you were looking elsewhere, so do not forget why you started this in the first place and what your mindset was then. Additionally, I would at leas...
by Elysium
Tue Dec 22, 2015 4:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Switching jobs for pay rise [and better role] worth it?
Replies: 15
Views: 1719

Re: Switching jobs for pay rise [and better role] worth it?

Yes, going to get the negotiations going after the holidays, preparing ground work now. Idea is to get house in order by mid Jan whether I take new job or continue with current job. I have learned over the years that if you don't complain once in a while about getting challenging roles and pay scale...
by Elysium
Tue Dec 22, 2015 4:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you spend on groceries?
Replies: 109
Views: 10541

Re: How much do you spend on groceries?

or spend a ton more on what is mostly food marketing gimmicks (organic, Paleo, assuming the produce at Whole Foods is somehow better than at the local market...). Avoiding as many pesticides as I can is not a gimmick, to me anyways. And Whole Foods produce may not be better than your local market b...
by Elysium
Tue Dec 22, 2015 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Vanguard Emerging Market Bond Fund
Replies: 46
Views: 6409

Re: New Vanguard Emerging Market Bond Fund

But are you going to take away significant chunk for it to make a real difference? for instance, say you have 30% invested in large cap US, will you take away 1/3rd of that to put in EM bonds, because if you are not then it isn't likely to make a big impact to overall portfolio returns. The best ar...
by Elysium
Tue Dec 22, 2015 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Vanguard Emerging Market Bond Fund
Replies: 46
Views: 6409

Re: New Vanguard Emerging Market Bond Fund

1. They say it has much better expected risk/return than *US* stocks, though there is no gtee of course that RA is right and even though they aren't the only ones to have this general view the caveat still applies. But there is some genuine element of diversification in a risk like EM local currenc...
by Elysium
Tue Dec 22, 2015 2:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you spend on groceries?
Replies: 109
Views: 10541

Re: How much do you spend on groceries?

I have no idea anymore on exactly how much it costs for our family of four. I know that roughly anywhere from $1600 to $2000 a month including eating out and take outs (actually we don't eat out a lot instead do take outs). The main culprit is Whole Foods who take in a lot of our dough. I don't worr...
by Elysium
Tue Dec 22, 2015 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Vanguard Emerging Market Bond Fund
Replies: 46
Views: 6409

Re: New Vanguard Emerging Market Bond Fund

Now why would a US investor buy an unhedged EM bond fund? I cannot think of one reason to take on currency risk of some of the most unstable regions in the world. You don't get paid enough to do that. I can barely think of reasons to buy fully hedged EM bond funds, but could make a case for it in a...
by Elysium
Tue Dec 22, 2015 1:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Switching jobs for pay rise [and better role] worth it?
Replies: 15
Views: 1719

Re: Switching jobs for pay rise [and better role] worth it?

Are the smaller companies really unstable or risky? If not, then the risk-level of job security is probably not much different. Is there a significant work-life balance difference between your present job and new job? The risk is really a matter of perception, especially in the government contracti...
by Elysium
Tue Dec 22, 2015 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to Launch Active "Core" Total Bond Fund
Replies: 49
Views: 8919

Re: Vanguard to Launch Active "Core" Total Bond Fund

This is not something new, most of the Vanguard bond funds are 'mildly' active, including the TIPS fund that is very popular with BH. The new core bond fund will be more less like TBM, but with some flexibilities in the sense they do not need to take on market weight of one section of bond market li...
by Elysium
Tue Dec 22, 2015 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Vanguard Emerging Market Bond Fund
Replies: 46
Views: 6409

Re: New Vanguard Emerging Market Bond Fund

Now why would a US investor buy an unhedged EM bond fund? I cannot think of one reason to take on currency risk of some of the most unstable regions in the world. You don't get paid enough to do that. I can barely think of reasons to buy fully hedged EM bond funds, but could make a case for it in a ...
by Elysium
Tue Dec 22, 2015 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Part 2 of the perfect storm post, how to increase EXPECTED returns
Replies: 118
Views: 13314

Re: Part 2 of the perfect storm post, how to increase EXPECTED returns

. Thanks Larry, Real / Nominal Expected Returns (%) 4.2 / 6.2 = US equity 7.4 / 9.4 = Intl developed equity 9.4 / 11.4 = EM equity From the above, global equities look okay to me (50:37:13 US:EAFE:EM = 6.1%/8.1% real/nominal return). According to AQR's capital market assumptions earlier in the year...
by Elysium
Tue Dec 22, 2015 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Switching jobs for pay rise [and better role] worth it?
Replies: 15
Views: 1719

Re: Switching jobs for pay rise [and better role] worth it?

I also thought 10% may be only the minimum risk premium, this is why I posted to hear opinions. However, getting very high jumps are not possible in tech industry at my level and age (mid 40's) in the east coast, especially in the government contracting world where there are standard rates for speci...
by Elysium
Mon Dec 21, 2015 9:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Switching jobs for pay rise [and better role] worth it?
Replies: 15
Views: 1719

Switching jobs for pay rise [and better role] worth it?

I currently have two job offers, both with similar job titles to the one I currently have as senior IT consultant with big blue chip firm. Salary offer is around 10% more than what I am earning now, but 401k match is 2% less - for both jobs. Although with current employer the matching contribution i...
by Elysium
Sun Dec 20, 2015 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you use DFA funds, if available?
Replies: 13
Views: 1468

Re: Would you use DFA funds, if available?

I would use the following funds: DFA U.S. Large Cap Value Portfolio--(DFLVX)--ER: 0.27% DFA U.S. Targeted Value Portfolio--(DFFVX)--ER: 0.37% DFA International Value Portfolio--(DFIVX)--ER: 0.43% DFA Int. Small Cap Value Portfolio--(DISVX)--ER: 0.68% DFA Emerging Markets Value Portfolio--(DFEVX)--ER...
by Elysium
Sun Dec 20, 2015 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: where to put cash out refi?
Replies: 68
Views: 4924

Re: where to put cash out refi?

what kind of multi million dollar judgement is OP worried about? Typical scenarios like an auto accident or someone getting injured on the property doesn't run into multi-million dollar judgements unless there is also gross and wilful negligence or fraud involved. A recent example, $18MM suit for a...
by Elysium
Sat Dec 19, 2015 6:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 1099 consulting job
Replies: 7
Views: 957

Re: 1099 consulting job

I have done little bit of 1099 work many years back, and I am considering going solo again recently if the right offer comes through. As others have said, expect at least 50% premium over your current salary. You can use this as a simple rule and not worry too much about 401k match, health care plan...
by Elysium
Sat Dec 19, 2015 6:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bought a 2009 Prius and now....
Replies: 28
Views: 4124

Re: Bought a 2009 Prius and now....

If you are satisfied with the MDX otherwise, I recommend keeping it. In a somewhat similar situation to yours, we bought a 2016 Lexus GX recently. I work from home and have very little commuting on weekdays, but we do a lot of weekend and holiday travel. Similar to you, I do not drive very much M-F....
by Elysium
Fri Dec 18, 2015 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: where to put cash out refi?
Replies: 68
Views: 4924

Re: where to put cash out refi?

The main unanswered question here is exactly what kind of multi million dollar judgement is OP worried about? Typical scenarios like an auto accident or someone getting injured on the property doesn't run into multi-million dollar judgements unless there is also gross and wilful negligence or fraud ...
by Elysium
Thu Dec 17, 2015 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Active funds some/many Bogleheads love
Replies: 47
Views: 4823

Re: Active funds some/many Bogleheads love

BW1985 wrote:Don't these funds contradict the BH philosophy?
But it wouldn't contradict Bogle's philosophy as they were all created during his time :D
by Elysium
Thu Dec 17, 2015 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on 3M (MMM)
Replies: 39
Views: 5736

Re: Thoughts on 3M (MMM)

I have some good memories of working at the HQ there a long time back, nice people overall, very easy to get lost in the campus and plenty of options for food. Would I hold the stock, have no idea, I don't own any.
by Elysium
Thu Dec 17, 2015 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: where to put cash out refi?
Replies: 68
Views: 4924

Re: where to put cash out refi?

1 million worth house isn't very much to put a target on your back, sounds like unnecessary concern. Heck, in my area 1 million worth home is not considered rich at all, this is typical of many high priced locations around the country. Granted many of those homeowners don't own the home outright, bu...
by Elysium
Thu Dec 17, 2015 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: where to put cash out refi?
Replies: 68
Views: 4924

Re: where to put cash out refi?

I know it is well-intended, except where people implied I was doing something sketchy. I appreciate everyone's input but just wanted to know where people thought the investments should go, nothing more. Thanks to all who replied. Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah! I suggest reading up on how Larry...
by Elysium
Thu Dec 17, 2015 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: where to put cash out refi?
Replies: 68
Views: 4924

Re: where to put cash out refi?

This is a primer: http://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/llc-asset-protection-charging-orders.html I'm not withholding anything. Just don't want to lose what I've worked my ass off to get. Not so complicated. Sadly, few have actually even attempted to ANSWER the question. Instead, many decided to b...
by Elysium
Thu Dec 17, 2015 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: where to put cash out refi?
Replies: 68
Views: 4924

Re: where to put cash out refi?

The reason there are skeptical replies is that most older posters here also have significant portfolios but I'm guessing none have done this. And for good reason. I advise investors for a living who's average net worth is 3-5M, maybe not where you are, but high enough. There's zero probability I wo...
by Elysium
Thu Dec 17, 2015 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Active funds some/many Bogleheads love
Replies: 47
Views: 4823

Re: Active funds some/many Bogleheads love

If are going to go into analysis/paralysis mode then it is not worth investing in active managed funds. Once you like a few funds and have confidence investing with them, then do not keep checking performance every now and then and compare with index funds, or do nit picking like comparing how much ...
by Elysium
Wed Dec 16, 2015 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets: Yes or No?
Replies: 78
Views: 18123

Re: Emerging Markets: Yes or No?

I have invested in EM above market weight since 2005. It is about 1/3rd of my foreign allocation. Here is how the break up look like, 1/3rd each in Developed Large (Vg Intl Growth), Developed Small (DFA Intl Small), and 1/3rd in EM Value (DFA). Overall foreign allocation is about 35% of equities. EM...
by Elysium
Mon Dec 14, 2015 9:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Paying Kids For Good Grades -- do you do it?
Replies: 94
Views: 8113

Re: Paying Kids For Good Grades -- do you do it?

I have never heard of such a thing before. In our family kids are always expected to get an A grade, if they are not then that is because either they are being careless in answering or they did not prepare well, both are easily correctable. This is what has happened mostly, and I am only talking abo...
by Elysium
Sun Dec 13, 2015 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Few hours in Paris - what do to?
Replies: 13
Views: 1514

Re: Few hours in Paris - what do to?

Charles de Gaulle Etoile to walk down the Champs Elysees, get a drink at a cafe and watch the bustle
This. Get close as possible to the Arc de troimphe.
by Elysium
Sun Dec 13, 2015 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VGELX - When will it see $140/share again? [Vanguard Energy Fund Admiral Shares]
Replies: 7
Views: 2206

Re: VGELX - When will it see $140/share again?

Energy is a very volatile sector, so investing specifically in that sector invites that sort of risk. If you must invest in Energy sector then there cannot be many better mutual fund options than Vanguard Energy. That said, I invest in Vanguard Healthcare fund, this is my only sector bet. Risk adjus...