Search found 1384 matches

by Elysium
Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: US Large Value or Int'l Small for the long term
Replies: 8
Views: 686

Re: US Large Value or Int'l Small for the long term

I would suggest neither. Just add to your US Total Market and forget it, or you could add more to US Small as well. Either way adding many components is not likely to boost your returns, increase complexity, and make it hard for you to stay the course. The last part is the most important, and one re...
by Elysium
Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 10063

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

I find it very amusing that Larry has no problem implying other posters as "foolish" "uninformed" "clueless" "nonsensical" and other such choice words, even though not directed at them but implied, but took offense at a comment from a quote from Taylor that wasn't directed at him. I know that Larry ...
by Elysium
Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will you backup the truck on stocks
Replies: 102
Views: 9949

Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

I've been backing up the truck a little bit since the last week's decline. So far moved some into US Large and Mid-Caps + Intl and out of Bonds + new funds available. This is only about 1/5th or so of the dry powder available, and then new funds will be coming, so still quite a bit to go if things m...
by Elysium
Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 11416

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

Buy the global haystack and just forget about it, my friends. :beer Can't afford it - I need a decent return on my money, which ex-US hasn't been able to provide over the long run. US bonds have provided similar return without the crazy volatility. I have little hope that most US-only investors wil...
by Elysium
Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 10063

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

This is all sound and fury that signifies nothing. Bogleheads should ignore all market pundits including Larry who needs to fill a column every week or so, it's his job to represent his WM firm with 150+ advisors who all need to be paid. Think about it, they need to promote the idea that they bring ...
by Elysium
Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 11416

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

. 04/1998 to 9/2018 (since inception of DFA Emerging Markets Value) - over the past 20+ years Annualized return/ Sharpe Ratio ..9.7% / 0.47 = DFA US Small Value ..9.2% / 0.49 = DFA International Small Value 10.1% / 0.44 = DFA Emerging Markets Value 10.1% / 0.52 = 50:37:13 DFA US Small Value:DFA Int...
by Elysium
Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Fidelity offer the best index products for a passive investor compared to Vanguard
Replies: 61
Views: 6223

Re: Does Fidelity offer the best index products for a passive investor compared to Vanguard

I would too, except for that bond component. Even Target 2065 (VLXVX) has 10% bonds. Recommending any allocation of bonds to a 20-something with 35-40+ years to retirement is a disservice. I don't agree. Everyone should have some bonds for a well-rounded portfolio. And a 10% allocation bonds is not...
by Elysium
Sun Oct 14, 2018 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does international really buy you diversification?
Replies: 43
Views: 4627

Re: Does international really buy you diversification?

Once you take that out, is there really any benefit is a big question mark. At least with large cap multi-nationals choosing GM, Ford, Apple, Bank of America, Pfizer, and Exxon over Toyota, BMW, Samsung, HSBC, Roche, and Shell seems like an active stock picking play. Looking back 50 years ago I wou...
by Elysium
Sun Oct 14, 2018 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better to invest in taxable and not deferred?
Replies: 31
Views: 3157

Re: Better to invest in taxable and not deferred?

OP here. Glad to see many thoughtful responses. I knew it wouldn't pass the BH stress test, and that's why I posted it since I have never found a solid reason myself. Anytime I ran this calculation in excel over the years, every time tax deferred and Roth has come out ahead. I must clarify one thing...
by Elysium
Sun Oct 14, 2018 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does international really buy you diversification?
Replies: 43
Views: 4627

Re: Does international really buy you diversification?

Part of the slight international outperformance in the lost decade over US was due to weakening dollar against the euro. Since most international holdings were currency unhedged this benefited them to boost the returns. We now have a reversal with USD strengthening against euro and other currencies....
by Elysium
Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Suit for Teenager
Replies: 18
Views: 1243

Re: Suit for Teenager

I bought a set for my son from Brooks Brothers last year. That was for no other reason except I buy my dress shirts from BB and was familiar with shopping there. It cost around $750 for the whole set including a shirt, tie, coat, pants. He has worn it a number of times since then and still fits him ...
by Elysium
Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better to invest in taxable and not deferred?
Replies: 31
Views: 3157

Better to invest in taxable and not deferred?

Conventional wisdom prevailing on BH and elsewhere in financial media is you max out your tax deferred space (401(k), 403(b), TSP, etc) and then fund Roth followed by any excess in taxable accounts. Especially if your investment choices are really good then no reason not to max out tax deferred spac...
by Elysium
Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Fidelity offer the best index products for a passive investor compared to Vanguard
Replies: 61
Views: 6223

Re: Does Fidelity offer the best index products for a passive investor compared to Vanguard

So far I can summarize the four major themes emerge: 1. Fidelity and Vanguard both offer low cost index products and both will do fine if you are a total market investor 2. Vanguard has variety in index products offerings, and if you are a slide & dicer or wish to use some of the factors, then Vang...
by Elysium
Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EMH a tautology?
Replies: 108
Views: 4947

Re: Is EMH a tautology?

The EMH is not an argument from authority. It has its own internal logic. Academics are not stupid. The fact that it has internal consistency does not make it true. The internal consistency may be useful in the academic world; papers can be published and people can get tenure thanks to it; but it d...
by Elysium
Sat Oct 13, 2018 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Fidelity offer the best index products for a passive investor compared to Vanguard
Replies: 61
Views: 6223

Re: Does Fidelity offer the best index products for a passive investor compared to Vanguard

So far I can summarize the four major themes emerge: 1. Fidelity and Vanguard both offer low cost index products and both will do fine if you are a total market investor 2. Vanguard has variety in index products offerings, and if you are a slide & dicer or wish to use some of the factors, then Vangu...
by Elysium
Sat Oct 13, 2018 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Fidelity offer the best index products for a passive investor compared to Vanguard
Replies: 61
Views: 6223

Re: Does Fidelity offer the best index products for a passive investor compared to Vanguard

I do not have a bias against Fidelity. But I am skeptical, why is that a problem. I used to be skeptical about DFA back in the days, but not anymore as evidence has shown they are very efficient at what they do. I do not quite trust AQR yet. It is good to have a fair amount of skepticism until prov...
by Elysium
Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Fidelity offer the best index products for a passive investor compared to Vanguard
Replies: 61
Views: 6223

Re: Does Fidelity offer the best index products for a passive investor compared to Vanguard

Is Fidelity using indexes that are cheaper to licence compared to Vanguard? If so, do they really have innovation and customers best interest in mind in offering the best products or improving existing products as opposed to cheap marketing slogans based on expense ratio alone. Are they cutting cos...
by Elysium
Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Fidelity announces simplified index fund structure]
Replies: 20
Views: 2654

Re: [Fidelity announces simplified index fund structure]

Isn't Russell indexes considered relatively poorly constructured among the peers. I wonder why Fidelity uses this index, possibly cheaper licensing costs for them, which makes up for the lower ER marketing strategy. Once upon a time the Russells were constructed such that changes in the index were ...
by Elysium
Fri Oct 12, 2018 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Fidelity offer the best index products for a passive investor compared to Vanguard
Replies: 61
Views: 6223

Re: Does Fidelity offer the best index products for a passive investor compared to Vanguard

What about differences in index construction, optimizations, block trading strategies, tax efficiency, securities lending, licensing, and above all experience matters, doesn't it? Vanguard has many years of expertise built into passive investing strategies so much that it is their core competency as...
by Elysium
Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Fidelity offer the best index products for a passive investor compared to Vanguard
Replies: 61
Views: 6223

Does Fidelity offer the best index products for a passive investor compared to Vanguard

I had raised this difference in underlying indexes between Fidelity and Vanguard in another thread. I think it merits a broader discussion in a separate thread of it's own. I am not sure if this was addressed before on the forum, if so I request to merge the threads. Anyhow, here are some of main po...
by Elysium
Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Fidelity announces simplified index fund structure]
Replies: 20
Views: 2654

Re: [Fidelity announces simplified index fund structure]

Also, can someone explain why their Large Value index fund is trailing the Vanguard counterpart by such a large margin? CRSP index? Vanguard uses CRSP index and Fidelity uses Russell 1000 value index I figure. So in other words, there is more to returns than fractional differences in ER. If I were ...
by Elysium
Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morse Code Glide Path
Replies: 32
Views: 1835

Re: Morse Code Glide Path

Excellent idea. The merits of this approch isn't disucussed here often although many of us do this or started doing. I started doing this since 2015 or so when I reached critical mass regarding my retirement assets, and nearing retirement. Before that I had a static 80/20 allocation for many years d...
by Elysium
Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will you backup the truck on stocks
Replies: 102
Views: 9949

Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

When it’s time to back up the truck, things will look bad enough that you are not going to want to back up the truck. Best answer in the thread. I don't think there were many "back up the truck" threads on the forum in late 2008 and early 2009. Really? I mean you are saying like this thread here ht...
by Elysium
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will you backup the truck on stocks
Replies: 102
Views: 9949

Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

When it’s time to back up the truck, things will look bad enough that you are not going to want to back up the truck. Best answer in the thread. I don't think there were many "back up the truck" threads on the forum in late 2008 and early 2009. Really? I mean you are saying like this thread here ht...
by Elysium
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When stocks and bonds drop at the same time, what do you do?
Replies: 40
Views: 4604

Re: When stocks and bonds drop at the same time, what do you do?

I am being told AQR has some low or negative correlation fund called QSPIX which doesn't behave the same way as stocks or bonds, but have bond like volatility with stock like returns. That should be going up now.... Oops sorry, just checked, have to take it back: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/...
by Elysium
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will you backup the truck on stocks
Replies: 102
Views: 9949

Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

When it’s time to back up the truck, things will look bad enough that you are not going to want to back up the truck. Best answer in the thread. I don;t think there were many "back up the truck" threads on the forum in late 2008 and early 2009. Most of the trucks got repossessed. +1 I thought they ...
by Elysium
Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will you backup the truck on stocks
Replies: 102
Views: 9949

Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

When it’s time to back up the truck, things will look bad enough that you are not going to want to back up the truck. Best answer in the thread. I don't think there were many "back up the truck" threads on the forum in late 2008 and early 2009. Really? I mean you are saying like this thread here ht...
by Elysium
Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Fidelity announces simplified index fund structure]
Replies: 20
Views: 2654

Re: [Fidelity announces simplified index fund structure]

Thats't great. I'd like to purchase the Fidelity Dividend Appreciation Index fund to replace my Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index fund to take advantage of their lower costs, but I can't find the ticker symbol. Can somone help me point to where this is listed? Also, can someone explain why their ...
by Elysium
Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will you backup the truck on stocks
Replies: 102
Views: 9949

Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Couple of posts asking what are these cash reserves doing and case of opportunity cost. Let me put it this way as I have a different take on this. If my portfolio went up more than I expected in the last few years, which it did, then my need to take risk has reduced, therefore building up new money...
by Elysium
Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter
Replies: 82
Views: 6620

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter

I have about 50% of my equities in international stocks, because I wanted to be as diversified as possible and avoid a japan scenario. Of that, I'm overweight EM by 10%. I've held this asset allocation for about 10 years now, patiently waiting for the high returns that supposedly accompany their hi...
by Elysium
Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter
Replies: 82
Views: 6620

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter

When going through my own historic return analysis of EM, I have noticed something that hasn't been discussed before here or brought up by any of the experts. The money weighted (IRR) returns are much smaller than the time weighted returns. This means if you have been purchasing through regular cont...
by Elysium
Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will you backup the truck on stocks
Replies: 102
Views: 9949

Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

Couple of posts asking what are these cash reserves doing and case of opportunity cost. Let me put it this way as I have a different take on this. If my portfolio went up more than I expected in the last few years, which it did, then my need to take risk has reduced, therefore building up new money ...
by Elysium
Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Foreign bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 810

Re: Foreign bonds

I hold about 5% of my portfolio in Vanguard Total Intl Bond, and my reasons for holding it is not at all related to efficient frontier or anything like that. It's purely out of fear of US treasuries blowing up and I am left with no money other than this 5% in foreign debt issued by several countrie...
by Elysium
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Child is HS senior: Should college fund have any equities?
Replies: 28
Views: 2343

Re: Child is HS senior: Should college fund have any equities?

Today is a reminder of why I went from equities to FDIC in my 529 for my college-aged students. This decline may not be a trend, but I am glad I locked in those gains with no risk of dipping below the requirement to fund all 4 years. It will probably go up, but I won't have regrets that I may have ...
by Elysium
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will you backup the truck on stocks
Replies: 102
Views: 9949

When will you backup the truck on stocks

Today is what I call a real sell off day, but not something that would make me break open the cash reserves and plung in. I have some reserves that I have earmarked for purchasing 5% more equities in case of a serious sell off. This isn't a regular re-balancing to your IPS or sleeping point plan. Th...
by Elysium
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Comparing my performance against S&P 500
Replies: 20
Views: 1346

Re: Comparing my performance against S&P 500

I am a software entrepreneur with a considerable amount of my assets in the stock market. I am wondering if you may know of any good websites where I can track how my individual stock purchase decisions are performing against a benchmark (say S&P 500). As individual investors, we know that each and...
by Elysium
Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Foreign bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 810

Re: Foreign bonds

I hold about 5% of my portfolio in Vanguard Total Intl Bond, and my reasons for holding it is not at all related to efficient frontier or anything like that. It's purely out of fear of US treasuries blowing up and I am left with no money other than this 5% in foreign debt issued by several countries...
by Elysium
Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The benefits of international diversification - NOT: Hulbert
Replies: 80
Views: 5440

Re: Mr. Bogle on "International Investing"

Jack Bogle makes some compelling arguments for NOT investing in ex-US, as a US investor: Here's Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Like Investing In Foreign Markets Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle on Mutual Funds, Common Sense Investing and the Stock Market Jack Bogle on Market Index Funds (2014) Bogle: Why I Don'...
by Elysium
Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter
Replies: 82
Views: 6620

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter

None of this is new. Back in the days of the old Morningstar forums, Larry used to site the same arguments, and at that time nearly no one used to own EM. While Larry has been consistent about why one should own them, I cannot say the same thing about everyone else's interest in this. People sort of...
by Elysium
Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter
Replies: 82
Views: 6620

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter

Only problem is, those forecasts have not materialized into actual results. Valuation can be cheaper and continue to remain cheap, and that is for a reason. Investors are willing to pay a premium for US corporations, many of them are actually more economically sound than some of the entire countrie...
by Elysium
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter
Replies: 82
Views: 6620

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter

All 10y return forecasts I have seen, based on current valuations, have EM returning ~6% real whereas, US is ~1% real. Why in the world would I want to hold 4x more US than EM like I get in the total world stock market. As a result, I am heavily overweight EM(~50%) and heavily underweight US(~15%)....
by Elysium
Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter
Replies: 82
Views: 6620

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter

All 10y return forecasts I have seen, based on current valuations, have EM returning ~6% real whereas, US is ~1% real. Why in the world would I want to hold 4x more US than EM like I get in the total world stock market. As a result, I am heavily overweight EM(~50%) and heavily underweight US(~15%)....
by Elysium
Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about selling VTSMX to buy VIGRX & VISGX
Replies: 14
Views: 1401

Re: Thinking about selling VTSMX to buy VIGRX & VISGX

I'm still new to this. 28 years old. I have around $6,500 in Total Stock Market Index (VTSMX). I am thinking about selling it and buying Growth Index (VIGRX) and Small-Cap Growth Index (VISGX). Thoughts on this? What exactly are your reasons? Based on the selections I’m guessing you are performance...
by Elysium
Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Child is HS senior: Should college fund have any equities?
Replies: 28
Views: 2343

Re: Child is HS senior: Should college fund have any equities?

Here is how I would look at it. We have two examples in the last 20 years of severe drawndowns for equities. 2000-02 and 2008-09. In the first example it took 6 years for US TSM to recover to break even, in other words from 2000-06 you were underwater on your original principal. See here: https://ww...
by Elysium
Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Child is HS senior: Should college fund have any equities?
Replies: 28
Views: 2343

Re: Child is HS senior: Should college fund have any equities?

I would sell equities and move to cash. In fact, I just did last month as posted about it here, and my child is only a sophomore in HS. The question I asked myself is which one I would regret more, giving up potential gains if market keeps going up or losing money saved for college and not having it...
by Elysium
Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sell 5-10% of equities to re-balance into bonds?
Replies: 14
Views: 1099

Re: Sell 5-10% of equities to re-balance into bonds?

In your situation I would sell the equities that gained the most during last 5 years to buy bonds, and get it down to about 80/20 from your current 90+ equity allocation. No one really knows when and if the next decline will happen. There is a lot of talk going on, that means nothing. However, reduc...
by Elysium
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter
Replies: 82
Views: 6620

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter

I have been invested in EM / EMV since 2004 and my opinion after all these years is - 'meh' they're fine but just don't expect higher returns. I've had periods of high returns and then periods of low returns. Nature of EM is high volatility combined with high unpredictability and returns concentrate...
by Elysium
Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sell 5-10% of equities to re-balance into bonds?
Replies: 14
Views: 1099

Re: Sell 5-10% of equities to re-balance into bonds?

There is nothing wrong going from 90/10 into an 80/20 allocation after a significant period of expansion. Just go ahead and do it if that is your sleeping point. Just don't go overboard by selling too much down. There is nothing less aggressive about being 80% in equities, and almost no one except t...