Search found 1233 matches

by Elysium
Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5347

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

It also was a case of privatizing the profits and socializing the risks. This was particularly true of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. So pretty much, for CEOs of certain companies, it was heads I win, tails the taxpayers lose. I own a few financial stocks, the damage from the financial crisis was temp...
by Elysium
Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95304

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

If you can reliably answer both of those questions with any asset class, you should become a very successful investor indeed. My opinion is that return from commodities shouldn't exceed inflation by a lot and their risk is substantially higher than TIPS. In other words they are to be avoided. Possi...
by Elysium
Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bike computer or Apple Watch?
Replies: 49
Views: 3441

Re: Bike computer or Apple Watch?

How quickly this has escalated from replacing an old cyclemeter to $750 pedals that require changing before a ride and charging :-) As long as we are making things way too complicated, there may be a triathlete watch out there that would work for scuba and biking :beer Good luck Texasdiver! While I...
by Elysium
Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wife's Roth @ a Financial Advisor
Replies: 33
Views: 1809

Re: Wife's Roth @ a Financial Advisor

OP, I had a look at the funds and the two American funds have done pretty well over the years compared to the index, and they are relatively less risky as well compared to index, based on drawdowns that were lower. Anyhow, question is are there any ongoing fees or just the initial load which he got ...
by Elysium
Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wife's Roth @ a Financial Advisor
Replies: 33
Views: 1809

Re: Wife's Roth @ a Financial Advisor

OP, I agree with your wife that her account is doing well. 70% of it is invested in two American funds that are growth oriented. I have not tracked them specifically, however, they have a pretty solid track record in general. They may or may not be ahead of the index funds always, but I don't think ...
by Elysium
Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95304

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I guess it depends on which asset class of international we're talking about: http://i65.tinypic.com/5zek44.png Also, I think Commodities have been the real disater! :shock: (all return data is from https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/) Depending on how strongly you believe in mean reversion, it mi...
by Elysium
Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5347

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

Elysium Sorry if I misinterpreted your view but I got that view since you quoted this Elysium » Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:13 pm AlphaLess wrote: ↑Sun Sep 09, 2018 5:38 pm I don't trust Cliff Asness. Another snake oil salesman. So I should have stated AlphaLess is the one with the problem. Again, my apolog...
by Elysium
Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5347

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

Obviously they are not the same situation between lending crisis and the models employed vs. the models employed by AQR. However, the point remains all models have some basic assumptions they take into consideration. What you are suggesting is that AQR is different, and theirs is based on sound the...
by Elysium
Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Simple Factor Investing
Replies: 46
Views: 4526

Re: Larry Swedroe: Simple Factor Investing

The ultimate in simplicity, of course, is a target date fund. DFA's target date funds... I think it is interesting how little factor tilt there is in DFA's target date funds (well, the 2060 fund anyway). Dimensional has 29% in small-caps and mid-caps, only 5% more than Vanguard. And it has no value...
by Elysium
Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5347

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

Obviously they are not the same situation between lending crisis and the models employed vs. the models employed by AQR. However, the point remains all models have some basic assumptions they take into consideration. What you are suggesting is that AQR is different, and theirs is based on sound the...
by Elysium
Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5347

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

re the models and theory. Models are only as good as the theory behind them. If people used models based on garbage theory then the models are wrong. There was literally NO ACADEMIC THEORY behind the crisis or the models, Just some people's opinions. Thus comparing the use of false models based on ...
by Elysium
Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5347

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

With all due respect, mathematical models based on academic research and theories devised by well qualified army of PhDs also gave us the sub-prime lending crisis that led to near financial collapse. This statement is so wrong it shows totally a lack of knowledge of the situation. The collapse lite...
by Elysium
Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5347

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

With all due respect, mathematical models based on academic research and theories devised by well qualified army of PhDs also gave us the sub-prime lending crisis that led to near financial collapse. This statement is so wrong it shows totally a lack of knowledge of the situation. The collapse lite...
by Elysium
Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5347

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

Btw, just want to add that, for all the researcch and models that AQR is employing, there is someone equally smart at the other end following a different strategy. This is all anecdotal, I reccently had a conversation with an investment manager who works for a firm managing about 140 billion in defi...
by Elysium
Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5347

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

Just to correct the misstatements I will not trust investing with someone who is being very opaque about that they do, other than point to erroneos or unsound academic research. AQR is just as transparent as DFA. They are fully transparent providing in depth attribution analysis on regular basis. T...
by Elysium
Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5347

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

I don't trust Cliff Asness. Another snake oil salesman. I don't know any snake oil salesmen, so can't comment if the comparison is true. But, I do know that this guy is a billionaire hedge fund manager who has put his high education status to advance himself and build a fortune for himself. Nothing...
by Elysium
Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A case for holding international bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 1176

Re: A case for holding international bonds

Hi Nisiprius, Yes, I am aware of the research from vanguard, and folowed it when this was all discussed at length here. I am not so much concerned at all about small differences any asset will contribute to reduce portfolio volatility. My only concern that I stated in OP, is default from US bonds wi...
by Elysium
Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Simple Factor Investing
Replies: 46
Views: 4526

Re: Larry Swedroe: Simple Factor Investing

The ultimate in simplicity, of course, is a target date fund. DFA's target date funds have only had inception since since 11/2015, so it's not reasonable to try to compare their performance to e.g. Vanguard's (OK, the 2060 funds have been virtually identical if you want to peek anyway ). However, I...
by Elysium
Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A case for holding international bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 1176

Re: A case for holding international bonds

I don't know how international bonds have done recently, or how Treasuries rates compare to other AAA government bonds, but looking at SEC yield is very misleading for hedged international bonds. It leaves out the hedge return. The SEC yield is calculated in the yield of the local currency, but aft...
by Elysium
Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bike computer or Apple Watch?
Replies: 49
Views: 3441

Re: Bike computer or Apple Watch?

While I agree with Elysium, the fact the OP uses several bikes makes watts metering less practical than cadence. At least with the technology that I am aware of. There are power meters that can be changed quickly between bikes. Pedal based mentioned above is one of them. DCRainmaker (dcrainmaker.co...
by Elysium
Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moved to 100% FDIC Insured Cash today (college money needed in 3 years)
Replies: 26
Views: 2267

Re: Moved to 100% FDIC Insured Cash today (college money needed in 3 years)

Just a quick follow-up. Interesting to hear other perspectives and what others have done. The money I moved will not cover all four years, as I am still making contributions, which I expect to continue for the good part of next 3 to 6 years. This new money I plan to continue to invest in the fund th...
by Elysium
Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A case for holding international bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 1176

A case for holding international bonds

I hold a small percentage of overall portfolio allocation (5%) to high quality international bond fund in Vanguard Total Intl Bond Index Instl shares. This is a total of 5% of overall portfolio and slightly less than 20% of bond allocation. I intend to keep this allocation steady. This fund is USD c...
by Elysium
Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bike computer or Apple Watch?
Replies: 49
Views: 3441

Re: Bike computer or Apple Watch?

While I agree with Elysium, the fact the OP uses several bikes makes watts metering less practical than cadence. At least with the technology that I am aware of. There are power meters that can be changed quickly between bikes. Pedal based mentioned above is one of them. DCRainmaker (dcrainmaker.co...
by Elysium
Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moved to 100% FDIC Insured Cash today (college money needed in 3 years)
Replies: 26
Views: 2267

Re: Moved to 100% FDIC Insured Cash today

Moved college account money needed in another three years into FDIC Insured cash today. Previously was in 60/40 equity/ bond allocation, and about time to reduce all equity and bond risk with money needed in just over a couple of years. Sorry for the attention grabbing title :D with all that discus...
by Elysium
Mon Sep 10, 2018 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moved to 100% FDIC Insured Cash today (college money needed in 3 years)
Replies: 26
Views: 2267

Re: Moved to 100% FDIC Insured Cash today (college money needed in 3 years)

I had moved 529 to 50/50 Equity/FDIC Insured cash for my college bounding child this year. Don't want to risk 20% loss but don't want to miss another 10% gain. Next year I am going to move to all cash. My guiding principle was looking at 2008 losses for various conservative options, and saw that fu...
by Elysium
Mon Sep 10, 2018 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moved to 100% FDIC Insured Cash today (college money needed in 3 years)
Replies: 26
Views: 2267

Re: Moved to 100% FDIC Insured Cash today (college money needed in 3 years)

fabdog wrote:
Mon Sep 10, 2018 5:10 pm
Was the original post a question asking for advice, or just a statement? I read it as a statement, and didn't see advice/guidance requested

Mike
Fixed OP.
by Elysium
Mon Sep 10, 2018 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moved to 100% FDIC Insured Cash today (college money needed in 3 years)
Replies: 26
Views: 2267

Re: Moved to 100% FDIC Insured Cash today

Moved college account money needed in another three years into FDIC Insured cash today. Previously was in 60/40 equity/ bond allocation, and about time to reduce all equity and bond risk with money needed in just over a couple of years. Sorry for the attention grabbing title :D with all that discus...
by Elysium
Mon Sep 10, 2018 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moved to 100% FDIC Insured Cash today (college money needed in 3 years)
Replies: 26
Views: 2267

Moved to 100% FDIC Insured Cash today (college money needed in 3 years)

Moved college account money needed in another three years into FDIC Insured cash today. Previously was in 60/40 equity/ bond allocation, and about time to reduce all equity and bond risk with money needed in just over a couple of years. This money is in 529 plan, so moving to CD and/or other alterna...
by Elysium
Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to Choose Between Jobs - Independent Contractor vs Consulting Firm
Replies: 11
Views: 592

Re: How to Choose Between Jobs - Independent Contractor vs Consulting Firm

Nope. There is none. Benefits that is, working for consulting firm when you are doing the same consulting work on your own. You can in fact do sub-contracting work for them and do the same job, get paid better and have more flexible working relation, don't need to worry about company politics. I hav...
by Elysium
Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bike computer or Apple Watch?
Replies: 49
Views: 3441

Re: Bike computer or Apple Watch?

Cadence is the most important info for non-mountain bike riding IMO. Cadence is what can make a rider efficient. I do not know of anything other than a bike computer that tracks cadence but I am not up on all of the newest toys. In fact, cadence is the only info that I really need during a ride whe...
by Elysium
Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 18799

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

once you go past the usual non-sense that risk==volatility and use the proper time horizon (the next generation, not hers) to think about it. If only it was true that risk is volatility. Fallacy of Time Diversification: https://www.slcg.com/pdf/practicenotes/Time_Diversification_-_September_30_2005...
by Elysium
Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95304

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Coming back to the statement from the original OP, has international investing been a real disaster? If we are so short term focused to look only at last 5 or 10 years, it may appear so. However, if we go back to 15 years then it paints a different picture. US Broad Market has returned around 9.5% f...
by Elysium
Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5347

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

I don't trust Cliff Asness. Another snake oil salesman. I don't know any snake oil salesmen, so can't comment if the comparison is true. But, I do know that this guy is a billionaire hedge fund manager who has put his high education status to advance himself and build a fortune for himself. Nothing...
by Elysium
Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 207784

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I found some interesting quotes attributed to Cliff Asness, the co-founder and CIO of AQR Capital Management who manages QSPIX along with several other funds. Quotes: "The average relative asking for advice, I say 'have you heard of this man Jack Bogle? He's a very nice man,'" I think as a starting ...
by Elysium
Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lower Return Decade Says Jack: Thoughts?
Replies: 81
Views: 6747

Re: Lower Return Decade Says Jack: Thoughts?

If you have enough for your needs, and returns from CD's are good enough to maintain your life style, then there is no need to take equity risk. This is regardless of expected equity returns, which are always risky, and no guarantee what they could be. I think Jack is being more optimistic than some...
by Elysium
Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value of Vanguard's Allocation Chart? Putting the present in a larger context? Or ???
Replies: 12
Views: 1399

Re: How close are your 12 month earnings compared to Vanguard's Allocation Chart?

Is this a serious question? Are you comparing avg annual returns from 1926-2017 with your one year returns.
by Elysium
Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 207784

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I have no problem accepting DFA funds as their own benchmarks, as I understand the methodology behind them. I have owned four DFA funds (SV, LV, Intl Small, and EMV) for more than 10-12 years now through retirement / college plans, and watched their behavior to have enough confidence in their strat...
by Elysium
Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 18799

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

once you go past the usual non-sense that risk==volatility and use the proper time horizon (the next generation, not hers) to think about it. If only it was true that risk is volatility. Fallacy of Time Diversification: https://www.slcg.com/pdf/practicenotes/Time_Diversification_-_September_30_2005...
by Elysium
Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 207784

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Sorry I caused so much drama saying the passive DFA funds serve as their own benchmarks. I have no problem accepting DFA funds as their own benchmarks, as I understand the methodology behind them. I have owned four DFA funds (SV, LV, Intl Small, and EMV) for more than 10-12 years now through retire...
by Elysium
Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 207784

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

All of these theories and models are trying to outsmart the market which is really very efficient. Strategies that involve futures, swaps, and derivatives are potential time bombs that may blow up in the next serious market correction, or it may reward you well when everything else tanks. I wouldn'...
by Elysium
Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 207784

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

All of these theories and models are trying to outsmart the market which is really very efficient. Strategies that involve futures, swaps, and derivatives are potential time bombs that may blow up in the next serious market correction, or it may reward you well when everything else tanks. I wouldn't...
by Elysium
Sat Sep 08, 2018 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 207784

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

larryswedroe wrote:
Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:38 pm
First, yes they are higher costs but only fools consider only costs vs. value added.
You lost me right there, no need to read further.
by Elysium
Sat Sep 08, 2018 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 18799

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

It;s coming.. I can sense it. There are discussions everywhere about FAANG stocks and how sky is the limit for companies like AMZN. Someone was arguing the other day, P/E multiples don't really matter when it comes to companies like AMZN, it's all about growth and there is no limit. It is their reti...
by Elysium
Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 207784

Re: It is dangerous to try and beat the market.

While expensive, this fund is supposed to not correlate much with stock market. Swedroe seemed to like it. You can get into this fund in a Fido IRA for $2500 minimum. otherwise $5 M minimum in taxable account. I am considering allocation of my IRA to this. yesterdaysnews: In 2015, when you wrote yo...
by Elysium
Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 207784

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

The expectation is losses a lot of the time and not tame ones like in intermediate-term bonds because vol is higher. But positive returns are more likely than negative returns in a given year, and the probability gets higher with longer periods. Assuming the underlying strategies are still net posi...
by Elysium
Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Bike Suggestion
Replies: 40
Views: 2990

Re: New Bike Suggestion

If they want to spend the money on something that will make those in their riding group jealous, have at it. Actually, the riding groups that I am with barely pay any attention to the bikes others are riding, and you don't get thumbs up for having the expensive bike, but you do get thumbs up for ri...
by Elysium
Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Bonds to boost returns?
Replies: 61
Views: 6531

Re: 100% Bonds to boost returns?

for example the idea that junk bonds are always mispriced against investors seems fairly popular on this forum I am not sure it is popular on this forum in general. There are many people who are just silent and there seems to be a vocal minoroty that keeps promoting this point, especially made popu...
by Elysium
Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 207784

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

But, then we are told, well CCF, REITS, etc. that we once recommended to serve this purpose are no longer the right answer, but here, try these shiny new things. This is AFTER someone who followed the recommendation suffered through the long period of under performance, but never stuck around long ...
by Elysium
Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 207784

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

As I’ve noted before, I’m a client of his firm. I post his writings only because I think they are so valuable to us amateur individual investors, and they serve as excellent starting points for Boglehead discussions. He takes current academic literature and makes it accessible, understandable, and ...
by Elysium
Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good time to do value investing?
Replies: 37
Views: 2572

Re: Good time to do value investing?

Meanwhile, out there in factorland, there is something of a debate between Cliff Asness (founder of AQR) and Rob Arnott (of Research Associates). I think Arnott is for market timing factors and Asness is agin' it. Or maybe it's the other way around. You can do your own web search for this. There is...