Search found 1782 matches

by firebirdparts
Fri Oct 09, 2020 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe withdrawal rate for someone retiring at 35? Would real estate help or hurt?
Replies: 59
Views: 7491

Re: Safe withdrawal rate for someone retiring at 35? Would real estate help or hurt?

You won't be retired if you buy real estate. To answer the question in the title, it'll help. The harder your work, the more it'll help. But then, you knew that.

The good news is that statistically you'll die young, if you just spend all your time doing what you want starting at age 35.
by firebirdparts
Fri Oct 09, 2020 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9401
Views: 752322

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Independent George wrote: Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:31 pm
I should track it. Is there a good resource that lets me see what the S&P did on specific dates?
I just use plain ol' yahoo finance for daily data, if that's all you want.
by firebirdparts
Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is deflation good or bad for the S&P 500?
Replies: 38
Views: 3899

Re: Is deflation good or bad for the S&P 500?

Deflation is bad, bad, bad, for the companies of the S&P500, and bad for borrowers, which is basically every institution that doesn't operate with an "endowment". I can think of a lot of reasons deflation would be coming, along with some reasons it might not.
by firebirdparts
Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whence inflation?
Replies: 127
Views: 6813

Re: Whence inflation?

It only has to keep moving if banks lend it. If the Fed, for instance, buys bonds with it, then whoever has the money has to either buy something (or give it away) or not. If they put it in any kind of interest bearing account, then presumably the account administrator has to loan it to somebody and...
by firebirdparts
Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When a company pays a dividend, what is the literal reason for the stock price decrease?
Replies: 57
Views: 4623

Re: When a company pays a dividend, what is the literal reason for the stock price decrease?

It’s an arbitrage opportunity. Stock prices are set by people like us. You don’t notice it as much the other 90 days of the quarter, but it should be obvious that it works both ways. It just takes 90 times longer in the other direction.
by firebirdparts
Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9401
Views: 752322

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Portfolio7 wrote: Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:07 pm Funny day. Who'da thunk that EM would be the safe haven??
It was up big before the notice from the potus.
by firebirdparts
Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long after starting investing, did you start to be happy about the power of compounding?
Replies: 186
Views: 20174

Re: How long after starting investing, did you start to be happy about the power of compounding?

thibaulthib wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 5:45 pm Thank you very much guys!

My savings rate is 50-60% per month, and I'm investing US $60K per year. After 3 years I have therefore a bit more than $180k, I cant wait to cross over $250k that I've heard is also one of the milestone.

Do you agree with this ?
I would have said 500.
by firebirdparts
Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain those "Space Force genuine legal $2 bills"
Replies: 25
Views: 3393

Re: Explain those "Space Force genuine legal $2 bills"

Ask your doctor if $2 bills are right for you....
by firebirdparts
Mon Oct 05, 2020 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is now the time to think about active investing??
Replies: 32
Views: 3116

Re: Is now the time to think about active investing??

" providing an opportunity for active managers to pick the innovative winners that will continue to drive market-cap gains.” Does this person have any working brain cells left? So we admit we lied about this opportunity for 500 years, but aha! Now it's suddenly real? Who would believe that? Life pr...
by firebirdparts
Sun Oct 04, 2020 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forever Stamps as an Investment?
Replies: 54
Views: 7391

Re: Forever Stamps as an Investment?

I think this is how Ponzi got his start, although that was much earlier than 2018 when this thread was created.
by firebirdparts
Sun Oct 04, 2020 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dying Broke (On Purpose) Article
Replies: 138
Views: 10914

Re: Dying Broke (On Purpose) Article

I’m not sure why you’d need to read a book or article or blog about that. Some people want to leave a big donation to something and that’s their business. If you’d never given any money away, then yes, you some training. But I think it’s okay to make up your own mind if you’ve a basic bit of experie...
by firebirdparts
Wed Sep 30, 2020 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Protection against Flash Crashes when using Margin
Replies: 35
Views: 2156

Re: Protection against Flash Crashes when using Margin

tmcc wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 10:13 am the easiest way to self-insure is to sell out of the money calls or buy out of the money puts.
That's not the right solution for the problem at hand. When the broker liquidates your shares they would ignore that put.
by firebirdparts
Wed Sep 30, 2020 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6597
Views: 623983

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

what are the downsides of this strategy getting too popular? Here's what I think: To get daily updated triple leverage, you prefer to have contracts with people who will pay you the return of the S&P 500 daily, and that is mostly what the fund holds. I personally would not want to get involved in t...
by firebirdparts
Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:33 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Where did HEDGEFUNDIE go?
Replies: 81
Views: 8331

Re: Where did HEDGEFUNDIE go?

He liked to argue until he didn't. That's kinda what these forums provide. I don't mean BH dot org, I mean all of them.
by firebirdparts
Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9401
Views: 752322

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Yeah, it's not really my full time job to argue on the internet.
by firebirdparts
Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commercial Real Estate Vacancy
Replies: 7
Views: 684

Re: Commercial Real Estate Vacancy

I'm familiar with a freestanding restaurant building in a prominent location, part of a larger commercial/retail strip property, that sat oddly vacant for 15 years because the owners would not lease it to anyone other than a large restaurant chain paying premium rent. Numerous small mom&pop type re...
by firebirdparts
Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do Bogleheads think of what happen to Japan?
Replies: 66
Views: 5580

Re: What do Bogleheads think of what happen to Japan?

I just got through reading Fully Grown by Dietrich Vollrath and it fully met my biases with confirmation. I already thought all the stuff he wrote. He does not at all resort to using Japan as an example, but you can clearly see that Japan is a highly developed economy, extremely so, with a low birth...
by firebirdparts
Sun Sep 27, 2020 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we NOW in a bubble?
Replies: 103
Views: 11097

Re: Are we NOW in a bubble?

This is not exactly like 1999 but certainly there are several worthless companies with high market cap. If you look, you can find stocks like the stocks that collapsed in 1999, but keep in mind none of these clown stocks are included in the 500 right now. Somebody is buying this trash, and frankly I...
by firebirdparts
Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9401
Views: 752322

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Crazy stuff!
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 24, 2020 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 580
Views: 60371

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

Just trying to understand the composition of this fund. I tried reading their fact-sheet, but I couldn't find details on how much leverage this fund takes on. I am assuming the 2.55x leverage number quoted earlier in the thread is correct. Looks like the fund is down 2.26% today (Sept 23). Given th...
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9401
Views: 752322

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

The market put on quite a show. I wouldn't want to sleep through that.
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did your accounts look like in your 30's?
Replies: 89
Views: 7944

Re: What did your accounts look like in your 30's?

Frugalbear wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:14 pm
Also I've only been investing for 6 years and really haven't seen compounding work it's magic.
Username checks out. If you're a bear you won't.
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuing access to workplace retirement space
Replies: 20
Views: 855

Re: Valuing access to workplace retirement space

I tried to duplicate this and I came out pretty close ignoring the taxes paid at the beginning and paying capital gains tax only once. Is that how you did it? In a 401k, I got $40,000 more in 30 years, but $30,000 more in 29 years. Another issue I see everywhere (not here) is converting to present ...
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuing access to workplace retirement space
Replies: 20
Views: 855

Re: Valuing access to workplace retirement space

I tried to duplicate this and I came out pretty close ignoring the taxes paid at the beginning and paying capital gains tax only once. Is that how you did it? In a 401k, I got $40,000 more in 30 years, but $30,000 more in 29 years. Another issue I see everywhere (not here) is converting to present v...
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 24, 2020 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did your accounts look like in your 30's?
Replies: 89
Views: 7944

Re: What did your accounts look like in your 30's?

Great question. I was ahead of the game in my 30's. Some bad things happened that had consequences, but mostly it's been good. - I maxed out my 401k contributions for several years before my 30's: Good - I opened a Roth IRA in about 1999 and invested in individual stocks: Bad - There was absolutely ...
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market Recent Sell Off Mystery
Replies: 67
Views: 6741

Re: Stock Market Recent Sell Off Mystery

Getting back on the subject at hand and away from reading comprehension issues, we are down about 9% on the S&P right this minute. That's where we are. As with all selloffs, we could write the headlines just as well as the people who really write the, but it wouldn't do any good. Stocks are high, bu...
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market Recent Sell Off Mystery
Replies: 67
Views: 6741

Re: Stock Market Recent Sell Off Mystery

How did they get the money out without finding someone to buy their stocks? This is basic stuff. Money cannot move in or out of tradeable securities at all. However, enormous sums of money flow in and out of mutual funds regularly. Simple. When people mis-state this (which wasn't the case here) you...
by firebirdparts
Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 580
Views: 60371

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

It's not as easy to buy as a lot of things, as we've seen in this thread, and that's probably the main issue. I don't have any information about why (for example) Fidelity is trying to restrict it. Why would they do that?
by firebirdparts
Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 580
Views: 60371

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

nehawk87 wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:00 pm Anyone else think it feels odd to invest $100K into PSLDX and then realize you own .01% of the entire fund? Just surprised this fund is still <$1B assets under management.
Considering the past performance I think it's odd.
by firebirdparts
Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone waiting until after the election?
Replies: 309
Views: 20247

Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Imaginary news of the future. It's everywhere. Can't get away from it. Evidently there's no market anymore in the news game for things that actually happened.
by firebirdparts
Mon Sep 21, 2020 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone waiting until after the election?
Replies: 309
Views: 20247

Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

To me, it makes a ton of sense to just look at the historical stock market returns and try to identify USA political events in the past. It's unfruitful. Try it. It seems to me that anybody with a lick of sense would have done this already, because there are always people talking about how politics ...
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inversely Correlated Investments with the Greatest Spread?
Replies: 19
Views: 1066

Re: Inversely Correlated Investments with the Greatest Spread?

It’s trivial to find inversely correlated assets, as fund providers offer plenty, but I think you can’t assemble anything useful out of them.

What you want is Short-term uncorrelated assets that both have high positive returns. That you can work with.
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio issues stark warning about US dollar’s future as global reserve currency
Replies: 42
Views: 3494

Re: Ray Dalio issues stark warning about US dollar’s future as global reserve currency

He keeps talking about this dangerous spiral where the Fed and other central banks have to step in to buy huge chunks of rising US government debt. But how bad would this spiral have to get in order to realistically put the US dollar’s future as a global reserve currency at risk? I’m not qualified ...
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ESG investing making a real impact?
Replies: 9
Views: 575

Re: ESG investing making a real impact?

I think stock “enthusiasts” like TSLA holders are having a much bigger effect. In theory, ESG effects should distort the market. Companies will respond to this, but the truth is that’s really all the CEO does anyway, whether there is ESG demand or not. His main job is to convince investors the stock...
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: any lessons to remember from dot com bubble?
Replies: 22
Views: 2252

Re: any lessons to remember from dot com bubble?

The lessons I learned you already know. You can’t pop the bubble, and you can’t outsmart the market. You have to out-luck it. So you have to invest accordingly. I started with nothing, so for me 100% equities over the last 35 years was fine. I lost half my net worth twice in the space of 10 years, a...
by firebirdparts
Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can VTSAX accidentally sell all its stock holdings?
Replies: 47
Views: 3897

Re: Can VTSAX accidentally sell all its stock holdings?

The story of what happened at Knight Capital Group in 2012 is also interesting. Quoting from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knight_Capital_Group , On August 1, 2012, Knight Capital caused a major stock market disruption leading to a large trading loss for the company. The incident happened after a t...
by firebirdparts
Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You are probably invested in Bitcoin now
Replies: 36
Views: 3071

Re: You are probably invested in Bitcoin now

I am just thinking imagine having to own this and now NKLA. Some guys just can’t get enough of SEC investigators for some reason. I’m sure they dress nicely.
by firebirdparts
Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9401
Views: 752322

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Market seems to like the fed meeting.
by firebirdparts
Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20353
Views: 2781528

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Does anyone know where all the money that's flowing out of the market during this correction is going? Treasuries have been relatively flat, as has gold. Are investors just moving to large cash positions, perhaps to combat uncertainty around the election? Money doesn't flow out of the market when t...
by firebirdparts
Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Call Options a bad idea?
Replies: 21
Views: 1785

Re: Why are Call Options a bad idea?

I think the fundamental answer has been given; they cost extra and they expire. However, deep in the money calls could be used as a stock substitute within reason. They cost more and are not volatile, so as you’d expect, the risk and reward Is more like stock, and it gets more boring as you go deepe...
by firebirdparts
Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You are probably invested in Bitcoin now
Replies: 36
Views: 3071

Re: You are probably invested in Bitcoin now

When you put it that way, this thread starts looking like an argument for actively managed funds.
by firebirdparts
Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Irrational Exuberance- Is completely ignoring all external signals (p/e) and auto-investing monthly ever a bad idea?
Replies: 54
Views: 4021

Re: Irrational Exuberance- Is completely ignoring all external signals (p/e) and auto-investing monthly ever a bad idea?

P/Es are only relevant when adjusted for underlying interest rates. For all we know 30x may well be the "norm" for decades..... if interest rates are going to stay sub-1%. This is super important, but it seems like it’s not a very popular topic of conversation. To the OPs question, I don’t think it...
by firebirdparts
Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Take AAPL out of rollover 401K?
Replies: 2
Views: 386

Re: Take AAPL out of rollover 401K?

It’s never a mistake to get rich. If you’re in the 32% bracket, just do the best you can. As an index investor I feel like I have enough Apple already. I could see selling it in your situation, but buying it again right now would not appeal to me at all.
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to invest in commodity as a buy&hold investor?
Replies: 15
Views: 1112

Re: How to invest in commodity as a buy&hold investor?

I think it's a mistake to lump commodities into a category. Right now, demand for consumable commodities is down , but business is generally coming back around the world. big projects might not be coming back. We don't really need them, and nobody wants to pay a construction company to build somethi...
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 10, 2020 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too much S&P 500 index concentration in FAAMGs?
Replies: 67
Views: 4134

Re: Too much S&P 500 index concentration in FAAMGs?

Blue456 wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:32 pm How is it going to affect buy and hold portfolio?
Well, it's easy to predict the past. It affected the portfolio in the past in that you made lots and lots of money holding this stuff. Lots.
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any option traders?
Replies: 57
Views: 6452

Re: Any option traders?

Do you have any recommendations for resources for learning more about options trading? I’m curious from an educational standpoint but don’t want to put any “play” money on the line until I learn the ropes. Thanks My accounts are with Fidelity. They have periodically a series of webinars about "how ...
by firebirdparts
Thu Sep 10, 2020 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9401
Views: 752322

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Here is how much sense the market makes "Jobless Claims came in higher than consensus" almost everything green today. No kne knows nothing...keep marching Makes perfect sense actually, but we aren't allowed to discuss why . It's never the numbers but what they might lead to that matters imho. Let's...
by firebirdparts
Tue Sep 08, 2020 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: refining definition of a bull and bear market
Replies: 10
Views: 555

Re: refining definition of a bull and bear market

I don't see the utility of recognizing that such a thing occurred. maybe there is one. It seems to me just something for semantic arguments on the internet. If you believe in some sort of mythology where identifying bull or bear markets gives you the ability to time the market, then yeah, I could se...
by firebirdparts
Tue Sep 08, 2020 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Bogleheads cope with FOMO? [Fear Of Missing Out]
Replies: 97
Views: 7908

Re: How do Bogleheads cope with FOMO?

phxjcc wrote: Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:42 pm
newyorker wrote: Mon Sep 07, 2020 12:24 pm I didnt and I got burned with AAPL
You young whippersnapper

Bought 1 month’s salary of DEC options.
“Can’t miss”

Bought at 10
sold at 1/16.
You should have held for the VT100 intro press release.
by firebirdparts
Tue Sep 08, 2020 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Bogleheads cope with FOMO? [Fear Of Missing Out]
Replies: 97
Views: 7908

Re: How do Bogleheads cope with FOMO? [Fear Of Missing Out]

Getting older is probably a good strategy, assuming you can learn from experience. Some can, and then some never learn anything ever. I think I have a personal bent that is less susceptible to begin with. I am not very open to that particular fear. I am very interested in avoiding regret, and if you...