Search found 1785 matches

by firebirdparts
Sun Jul 19, 2020 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dark side of Pretax 401Ks and IRAs
Replies: 90
Views: 8498

Re: Dark side of Pretax 401Ks and IRAs

This reminds me of the user here whose signature says something like "A dollar in Roth is worth more than a dollar in taxable, which is worth more than a dollar in tax-deferred." The statement is true, but it only looks at future tax costs and ignores the tax cost of putting a dollar into each of t...
by firebirdparts
Sun Jul 19, 2020 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 580
Views: 60399

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

GaryA505 wrote: Sun Jul 19, 2020 9:51 pm I have a small Roth that I will be using for the kids college expenses in about 6-10 years. Today I was toying with the idea of using 50/50 mix of PSLDX/CASH in this account. Crazy?
Not crazy. You don’t really need the cash but you be the judge. 10 years is usually considered a “long” time.
by firebirdparts
Sun Jul 19, 2020 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Puts and Mortgage Downpayment - Shoot my idea down
Replies: 51
Views: 2841

Re: Puts and Mortgage Downpayment - Shoot my idea down

People are not stupid, so Insurance will cost you. It is what it is. It’s not a philosophical question.
by firebirdparts
Fri Jul 17, 2020 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 580
Views: 60399

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

If you all are going to have a thread about this you’re going to have to ignore this guy. You don’t have to just to suit me though.
by firebirdparts
Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash Covered Puts instead of High Yield Savings for Cash
Replies: 76
Views: 5342

Re: Cash Covered Puts instead of High Yield Savings for Cash

Leesbro63 wrote: Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:07 am There has to be some big risk here somewhere
The risk is you have to buy VTI. If you are happy to buy VTI, then it's okay. You could always buy the put back and escape, but the basics are just you have to buy it at the price you set.
by firebirdparts
Thu Jul 16, 2020 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do with significant index changes, e.g., S&P 500 adding Tesla
Replies: 200
Views: 17466

Re: How to protect one's investment in an index fund when there's a new stock entering the S&P500

This is plain and simple and I hope you will take 10 seconds to compare the results of TSM and 500 index funds. You can see from this, I hope, that the S&P500 does not suffer much from people (wisely) front running changes to the index.
by firebirdparts
Thu Jul 16, 2020 11:09 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: How to hedge in case of a disaster in your country's economy
Replies: 92
Views: 6326

Re: How to hedge in case of a disaster in your country's economy

Extra info: "Fleeing" is for working people. Rich people flee toward poor countries. how about medical care, security issues, general quality of life? Even worried about the security related to my investments. If the UK becomes an emerging country all those parameters will be affected Luckily I'm A...
by firebirdparts
Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20421
Views: 2784962

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Up in arms about netflix after hours. I have no idea what'll really happen tomorrow, but right now the market has some bad news to overcome.
by firebirdparts
Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:37 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: How to hedge in case of a disaster in your country's economy
Replies: 92
Views: 6326

Re: How to hedge in case of a disaster in your country's economy

steve321 wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:03 pm Apart from having a globally diversified portfolio, ......
Wait, wut?

Extra info: "Fleeing" is for working people. Rich people flee toward poor countries.
by firebirdparts
Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Front Loading Equities
Replies: 15
Views: 665

Re: Front Loading Equities

A) Why aren't people front loading equities? Actually I think most people do, but I admit I did no poll to determine that. If people aren't doing it right now today due to market timing, honestly, I wouldn't blame them. But if you're 27 years old and we lose 50% on equities over the next six months...
by firebirdparts
Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20421
Views: 2784962

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

So SP500 has settled in about 3200 today and we're in the free fall thread? No gratitude.
by firebirdparts
Wed Jul 15, 2020 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9406
Views: 753096

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

3:30.. Time for the daily melt-up
by firebirdparts
Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9406
Views: 753096

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Look at that Russel 2000 today. Bustin' loose.
by firebirdparts
Tue Jul 14, 2020 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the stock market up? [thread multi-merge]
Replies: 521
Views: 21823

Re: Why is the stock market up? [thread multi-merge]

I don't understand why anyone would not have expected a very bumpy reopening. If you just listen to what your friends and family are saying, I would say there is a lot of mass delusion about the disease itself and about consumer spending. It doesn't do much good to talk about it. Everything that co...
by firebirdparts
Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Options Trading Basic Questions
Replies: 5
Views: 475

Re: Options Trading Basic Questions

I agree. It's not 100% clear but I think that's right, a "bullish" call spread. If so, his position originally was he bought the 2500 call and he sold the 2600 call. When you do that, you've already made up your mind to only make $100 by exercising it all. When he closed it all, he just took whateve...
by firebirdparts
Mon Jul 13, 2020 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20421
Views: 2784962

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Blue456 wrote: Sat Jul 11, 2020 10:46 am I like the prayer. As for the bubble, let it burst. We will just get cheaper equities :)
Indeed. Let them come. I have already been left far, far behind by those wiser than me, who bought Tesla for $300 a few short weeks ago.
by firebirdparts
Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6600
Views: 624822

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

With hundreds of pages its kind of hard to tell -- but is there any new consensus on the ideal rebalancing schedule for Hedgefundie's 45/55 TMF/UPRO approach? Is it 10% bands, quarterly, or something else? That is a critically important question, and I don't think there's a consensus. Having just g...
by firebirdparts
Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 580
Views: 60399

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

Would someone please either confirm or correct my understanding of this fund: - if all this borrowing/buying/selling and other activities on the bond side of the fund result in just breaking even, the investor is GUARANTEED the return of S&P500 (minus ER); - if they manage to make a profit, say 3%,...
by firebirdparts
Sat Jul 11, 2020 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 580
Views: 60399

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

Impressive :shock: So where's the trick? Have we just found the golden goose?! :wink: :moneybag It really is pretty dull, as I said above. if you have a raging bull market in both stocks and bonds, then naturally, a leveraged fund of either one is going to look nice. A balanced leveraged fund of bo...
by firebirdparts
Sat Jul 11, 2020 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Were You Around During Dotcom Bubble?
Replies: 182
Views: 11762

Re: Were You Around During Dotcom Bubble?

ICQ and AOL AIM was how people chatted along with other great platforms like Usenet and IRC. Ahh, the good old days. Are you kidding me? AOL hooking up to the internet was one of the worst moments in modern history. Suddenly groups like comp.compilers went from discussions of graph theory to questi...
by firebirdparts
Fri Jul 10, 2020 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 580
Views: 60399

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

Just off the phone with Fidelity re: PSLDX. The broker cited that the $1M threshold exists for IRA and 401k (brokeragelink), but mentioned that there appears to be no fee and no minimum for additional investments. If that's the case, it seems I could open the position @ Ally bank, and then transfer...
by firebirdparts
Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9406
Views: 753096

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Now, that's soaring. TSLA earnings will be 7/22 and I think there is wide speculation that they'll make a profit and be admitted to the S&P 500, causing some significant buying pressure. I am staying out of it personally. The day of reckoning here is only 12 days away, but of course if valuations ar...
by firebirdparts
Fri Jul 10, 2020 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 580
Views: 60399

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

The best/most reasonable approximation I’ve seen for this is: 100% VOO 100% BLV -100% cash Now is 0.59% too much for that? Opinions clearly differ. It's also not clear if this would be seem superior to you personally to something like UPRO/TMF/Cash in thirds. The ER for that is .65 not counting 1/3...
by firebirdparts
Fri Jul 10, 2020 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?
Replies: 161
Views: 8738

Re: Gold?

Bogleheads: A friend sent me this: "Gold is for hoarders who expect to trade glittering bars for stale bread after a financial Armageddon. Or it's for people trying to 'time' gold's movements by purchasing it on an upward bounce, with the hopes of selling before it drops. That's not investing. It's...
by firebirdparts
Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9406
Views: 753096

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

FANGMAN has a market cap equal to the combined GDP of Germany and the UK. Is that a lot? The future earnings of a company (as estimated by the market) vs. the current year's revenue of two countries is a comparison I can't quite wrap my head around. :P If we take the Buffet Indicator to be truth an...
by firebirdparts
Thu Jul 09, 2020 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 580
Views: 60399

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

Just looking at at the blue line in the chart posted in this thread on Page 5, June 13 (9:29am) by ChrisBenn seems to imply that putting a large part of your portfolio in this fund is prohibitive. That looked like a 70% drop to me. That' seems too much for anyone's portfolio. Especially where a Tot...
by firebirdparts
Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 580
Views: 60399

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

Curious, for those of you who have bought PSLDX, about what % of your portfolio does it make up? I personally purchase as much as possible in my IRAs and use total market funds for employer plans I think this was asked earlier if you can find it. For me it’s 25% but I am only 50% stocks. So half th...
by firebirdparts
Wed Jul 08, 2020 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reality check: why would anyone buy a Stone Ridge Longevity fund?
Replies: 30
Views: 2720

Re: Reality check: why would anyone buy a Stone Ridge Longevity fund?

Sounds like a coffee can buried in the yard wouldn't be too terribly inferior to this fund.
by firebirdparts
Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand this on real estate investing
Replies: 35
Views: 3240

Re: Help me understand this on real estate investing

Looking at the title of this thread, just understand he's talking about Real Estate anti-investing. He constantly refinances so that he IS NOT investing in it. Well, he still owns the house, and thus benefits/suffers from any appreciation/loss, so it is an investment. Don't go there. Just don't. Th...
by firebirdparts
Tue Jul 07, 2020 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand this on real estate investing
Replies: 35
Views: 3240

Re: Help me understand this on real estate investing

I have never seen a comprehensive financial analysis of rent vs. buy that resulted in good figures for renting. Buying to become a landlord seems to only double-down on this outcome. Things like: 1. Agent fees 2. Property taxes 3. Maintenance (I've seen estimates ~1% of property value!) Are all kil...
by firebirdparts
Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9406
Views: 753096

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Robot Monster wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:26 am
Okay, fair point, though you have to wonder how people are actually investing vs how they publicly present themselves here. People might not go ahead and admit when they stray from the course.
I think 100% of us are above average.
by firebirdparts
Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds x Alternatives
Replies: 13
Views: 980

Re: Bonds x Alternatives

Well, it's not that easy. Short term bonds don't go down, but they don't go up either. Real estate is pretty well correlated with a crash in the stock market, and "commodities" are also. Most commodities get consumed, so the behavior of something useful like platinum or delicious like pork bellies i...
by firebirdparts
Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand this on real estate investing
Replies: 35
Views: 3240

Re: Help me understand this on real estate investing

Looking at the title of this thread, just understand he's talking about Real Estate anti-investing. He constantly refinances so that he IS NOT investing in it. Hope that makes sense.
by firebirdparts
Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 374
Views: 70297

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

We are either going to climb or fall off of a wall of worry.
by firebirdparts
Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reaching for Yield: Is It Really Different This Time?
Replies: 79
Views: 5800

Re: Reaching for Yield: Is It Really Different This Time?

Isn't this reaching for yield in (a thin) disguise? It's important not to get lost in the platitude slinging. When people say "don't chase yield", in my opinion, that is talking about buying a financial instrument after it goes up, and you think "I want to get in on that, it goes up". So if you loo...
by firebirdparts
Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your contrarian/alternative play?
Replies: 46
Views: 4496

Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Mine is just being 50% stocks instead of 100%. I am doing the pinwheel, so I have quite a dog's breakfast of stuff and not a lot of it is USA glamour.
by firebirdparts
Sun Jul 05, 2020 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4027
Views: 312627

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Alternatively, 50K new cases a day when you're doing 650K tests isn't the same as 40K new cases in a day when you're doing 120K tests. Rational people know this and are pricing the market accordingly. And if the information changes over the next few weeks, the markets will adjust. This is a good ex...
by firebirdparts
Sun Jul 05, 2020 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 370
Views: 26141

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

I did a quick glance through it looking for an answer to a particular question I had in mind, and I didn't find it. He simply asserts--repeatedly--that fiat money has no intrinsic value, but that gold does . To widen that a little, "When societies first invented money they used all sorts of things,...
by firebirdparts
Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 370
Views: 26141

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

aristotelian wrote: Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:27 am Data without theory to me is just as unconvincing as theory without data. I still want a reason why gold should be a profitable investment.
“Profitable” is pretty strong language.
by firebirdparts
Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investment a competition?
Replies: 43
Views: 2459

Re: Is investment a competition?

I have to work, so I guess you could say I am hoping to get to the point where it’s a competition. I don’t think it’s realistic for me. My lifestyle is such that other people gobbling up all the resources will never be a factor. If I was a useless person and living in the Hamptons it well could be. ...
by firebirdparts
Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6600
Views: 624822

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

If all of these is true, then we are basically betting that S&P 500 will not have 3-4+ consecutive days of max circuit breaker declines, am I right? Other way. We are accepting that it does get totally wiped out. A dumb person would argue whether it’s 6 or 3 or 11% rather than zero, but it turns ou...
by firebirdparts
Thu Jul 02, 2020 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: EBITDAC: earnings as if there were no coronavirus. How worried should I be?
Replies: 11
Views: 1002

Re: EBITDAC: earnings as if there were no coronavirus. How worried should I be?

I’d say you can ignore any arguments about the efficient market hypothesis for a while.
by firebirdparts
Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in whiskey
Replies: 18
Views: 903

Re: Investing in whiskey

isn't that true of any investment? What you start saying stuff like this, take that as an indication that you don't understand anything that is going on. if you have money, there are a variety of reasons somebody might want to take your money now and promise to give it back to you later. The key wo...
by firebirdparts
Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world
Replies: 200
Views: 19023

Re: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world

I have theory on Tesla valuation. It is not based on conventional car sales or the battery technology. They are never going to exceed Toyota in sales and the battery tech isn't ground breaking. The bet is instead on a paradigm shift in how cars operate. You may be right, but nobody thinks this shif...
by firebirdparts
Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in whiskey
Replies: 18
Views: 903

Re: Investing in whiskey

If you do, insure it.
by firebirdparts
Thu Jul 02, 2020 3:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4027
Views: 312627

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Cases don't really matter so much as commerce (which is terrible). 100,000 cases a day is still small; at that rate it would take 10 years for it to run through the entire USA population. Epidemics never last that long. I don't really know why that is. I do think some companies are going to grow and...
by firebirdparts
Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to analyze having a paid-off mortgage in retirement?
Replies: 104
Views: 6597

Re: How to analyze having a paid-off mortgage in retirement?

It's pretty common to have a goal of paying off your mortgage by retirement. But why? Obviously it reduces your expenses, but it also reduces the size of your nest egg. It's possible that it's better financially to have the larger nest egg. How would you determine which alternative is better? How w...
by firebirdparts
Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world
Replies: 200
Views: 19023

Re: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world

I have theory on Tesla valuation. It is not based on conventional car sales or the battery technology. They are never going to exceed Toyota in sales and the battery tech isn't ground breaking. The bet is instead on a paradigm shift in how cars operate. You may be right, but nobody thinks this shif...