Search found 1777 matches

by firebirdparts
Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"
Replies: 536
Views: 36226

Re: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"

JustinR wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:02 pm Is it still not clear that receiving a dividend is exactly the same thing as selling shares?

Let me make it clear then in underlined/bolded font:

Receiving a dividend is exactly the same as selling shares.
Repeating things doesn’t make them any smarter or more useful. This is not useful.
by firebirdparts
Thu Aug 08, 2019 5:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth
Replies: 200
Views: 16939

Re: Roth > Taxable > tIRA

I would have lost a lot of money betting on how long this thread would stay active. You guys are arguing with somebody who doesn’t have any interest in the zero tax bracket. He’s not interested. You’re not going to get him interested.
by firebirdparts
Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 442286

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Meaty wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:58 pm What’s the impact to this strategy if T rates go negative?
Oh my.
by firebirdparts
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing for negative interest rates
Replies: 31
Views: 2328

Re: Investing for negative interest rates

Well, you'd want a ton of long bonds. The reason we don't already all have those is that we don't actually have the ability to guarantee a 2% drop in a few months. If it happens, yeah, when it's over you'll wish you had 100% 30 year treasuries, I think. There might be something better, and if there ...
by firebirdparts
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20344
Views: 2779747

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Perhaps the 100% stock investors are learning something about risk. Perhaps. I took a bunch of money out of equities during the Euro insolvency crisis, brilliantly timed. That mistake cost me, I would guess, $1000 for every nickel I've lost in the last week. That's just a guess. The important thing...
by firebirdparts
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Need help understanding Dividend and Capital Gains
Replies: 13
Views: 954

Re: Need help understanding Dividend and Capital Gains

The company pays $X a share. That’s what you would get. The yield is not a fundamental concept. The yield changes every day. The stock price (denominator in the yield calculation) changes moment by moment when the market is open.
by firebirdparts
Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New and Improved CAPE is Higher!
Replies: 33
Views: 3416

Re: New and Improved CAPE is Higher!

I suddenly realized that cyclically adjusted numbers are much less useful than plain ol' numbers.

I do wonder whether the current fad of buybacks will continue. That may be a critical bit of information.
by firebirdparts
Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Increase stocks during bear market?
Replies: 14
Views: 1583

Re: Increase stocks during bear market?

I was 100% equities in 2000 and 2008, all the way down. I do see that having something like a 60/40 allocation would have put me way ahead for a long, long 15 years. That's a long time. However, 100% stocks would have taken the lead and stocks are ahead today. FWIW.
by firebirdparts
Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Increase stocks during bear market?
Replies: 14
Views: 1583

Re: Increase stocks during bear market?

This is just ordinary market timing. It seems like it should work, but believe me, everybody else has certainly thought of it. Maintaining a constant asset allocation is similar, of course. Rebalancing a quality low cost 2 or 3 fund portfolio works pretty darn well. If you backtest, one thing you'll...
by firebirdparts
Tue Aug 06, 2019 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20344
Views: 2779747

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Many, if not most posters, seem upbeat and explaining away this drop in the market today. Is this real? What will it take to make them really worried? Well, the accumulators should only be worried about running out of money to buy index funds with. They may not feel that way, but they should. I've ...
by firebirdparts
Mon Aug 05, 2019 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"
Replies: 536
Views: 36226

Re: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"

I was kinda okay with your first paragraph, until you said "Stock 'crashes' are short and growth cycles are long." This came as a surprise to me (and I suspect others) who were alive from the late 60s to early 80s. The market went pretty much nowhere while inflation was high, for a long time. (Too ...
by firebirdparts
Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"
Replies: 536
Views: 36226

Re: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"

So I hope there is some reasonable agreement that it is possible to hold 100% of a big stock index with a low withdrawal rate close to the dividend rate and yes that will work, and you can see why a person might do that. You can also see why people don't always do it. That is because the crowd is tr...
by firebirdparts
Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So it’s pointless to invest in tech funds because expectations are already factored into price?
Replies: 17
Views: 1619

Re: So it’s pointless to invest in tech funds because expectations are already factored into price?

For a practical perspective I just randomly compared fidelity select cimputers to the 500. It’s a very old fund of this type. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&initialAmount=10000&annualO...
by firebirdparts
Sun Aug 04, 2019 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where do you put your sinking fund?
Replies: 23
Views: 2522

Re: Saving for future expenses

The jargon for that is sinking fund. Investments usually match the time horizon, which these days might mean 0% real return and less. You could debate what parts of the house the emergency fund can be used for. You could also debate how much your taxable portfolio could tolerate a payout given a rea...
by firebirdparts
Sun Aug 04, 2019 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"
Replies: 536
Views: 36226

Re: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"

I'm just curious about the dividend approach, what are the specific pros can cons. You’ll have to define the dividend approach to get meaningful answers. For example, let’s say the dividend approach is a portfolio of 100% SP500 index today with a withdrawal rate of 2%. You can easily see the pros a...
by firebirdparts
Sun Aug 04, 2019 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"
Replies: 536
Views: 36226

Re: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"

That's what I was thinking and told my friend. He said some companies will keep paying the same dividend. He’s right. Companies usually wallow in very bad financial mojo for a while before dividends are cut. Stock price doesn’t harm the company‘s ability to pay the dividend. A recession will affect...
by firebirdparts
Sun Aug 04, 2019 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simple vs Complex Index Portfolio
Replies: 26
Views: 3141

Re: Simple vs Complex Index Portfolio

I don't think there is much advantage. If some sector or factor fund outperforms, when you take into account it was only 10% of your money, the overall effect is small. If you look at grand telltale charts, you'll see that the periods of outperformance are pretty rare. You might catch one. On the fl...
by firebirdparts
Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20344
Views: 2779747

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

With all this uncertainty I might just go on into the office tomorrow and stay on the payroll.
by firebirdparts
Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Averaging. Any practicionors?
Replies: 39
Views: 8406

Re: Value Averaging. Any practicionors?

I'm glad you revived these threads. Bill Bernstein's old posts helped me make sense of it. It seems only to apply here during the accumulation phase. In the preview to "living off your money" there were a couple strategies that are related to the same concepts as VA, but not exactly. That is, target...
by firebirdparts
Sat Aug 03, 2019 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So it’s pointless to invest in tech funds because expectations are already factored into price?
Replies: 17
Views: 1619

Re: So it’s pointless to invest in tech funds because expectations are already factored into price?

Jesteroftheswamp wrote: Sat Aug 03, 2019 5:27 pm How accurate is this?
I think what you’ve done is handily disproved the EMH. My opinion.

What I think is the risks to decumulators are meaningless to accumulators. The average price is not correct for either. Again, my opinion. I’d buy a tech fund.
by firebirdparts
Sat Aug 03, 2019 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The birds and the bees. Why not bequests?
Replies: 9
Views: 2011

Re: The birds and the bees. Why not bequests?

I thought it was your mother and I are rich, you are penniless. It’s much older than tv I’m sure.
by firebirdparts
Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Aggressive loan paydown on sub-2.5% fixed debt?
Replies: 18
Views: 1388

Re: Aggressive loan paydown on sub-2.5% fixed debt?

The important decision is to live simply. What you do with all the excess cash is secondary. That’s what I think. If the debt is motivational, that’s important. If I were you, I would not be able to resist looking at market valuation and leading indicators today and that would convince me the math a...
by firebirdparts
Thu Aug 01, 2019 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20344
Views: 2779747

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

J G Bankerton wrote: Thu Aug 01, 2019 10:48 am Buy the dips when they don't agree with the numbers. :greedy
Missed it by that much
Image
by firebirdparts
Thu Aug 01, 2019 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are You Rich?
Replies: 31
Views: 3676

Re: Are You Rich?

I drove a 40 year old car to work today.
by firebirdparts
Thu Aug 01, 2019 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are You Rich?
Replies: 31
Views: 3676

Re: Are You Rich?

I was surprised at the simplicity of all that, but this caught my eye: More than a third of respondents in the 90th percentile described their income as “average” compared to Americans in general Maybe they just lied. It's pretty impolite to say "yeah, I'm rich". Present company excepted, of course....
by firebirdparts
Thu Aug 01, 2019 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20344
Views: 2779747

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Free falling the other way ( not surprisingly).
by firebirdparts
Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!
Replies: 414
Views: 73291

Re: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!

Of course that is true, and in fact dividend reinvestment is irrelevant. The existing bonds themselves don't change, as you know. If the time value of money affects what you'd pay for the bond today, the price drops or increases to the level of indifference vs. fresh bonds today. If the value today ...
by firebirdparts
Thu Aug 01, 2019 6:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Cleaning up portfolio for a 29 yr old
Replies: 9
Views: 1306

Re: Cleaning up portfolio for a 29 yr old

That's excellent. I don't understand the comment above about "maximizing" taxable. I don't know what that is. When I was your age, I took the view that I should be 100% in stocks. It worked out great for me. My investing years were basically 1990 until now. What you might think about is whether that...
by firebirdparts
Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bonds and a rate cut this week?
Replies: 11
Views: 2004

Re: Muni bonds and a rate cut this week?

As I read this graph, it is showing amounts outstanding. Last full year was 2018 & munis had ~$3675 Billion. Ten years before (using your 10 year example, although I'm not sure that is "standard"), in 2008 munis outstanding amounted to ~31451 Billion...almost a factor of 10. It is a commonly echoes...
by firebirdparts
Tue Jul 30, 2019 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not aim for a HIGH YIELDING portfolio?
Replies: 60
Views: 5659

Re: Why not aim for a HIGH YIELDING portfolio?

I admit some stock pricing is magic, but high dividends are not magic. They're dull. If a company lays the money out there, and nobody wants to pay much to acquire it, there's a very blatant reason that perfectly ordinary people have already figured out. It only takes 1 person to buy a company, but ...
by firebirdparts
Tue Jul 30, 2019 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not aim for a HIGH YIELDING portfolio?
Replies: 60
Views: 5659

Re: Why not aim for a HIGH YIELDING portfolio?

If that was a troll post, it seems to have worked out.
by firebirdparts
Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Setting up a 401K...
Replies: 6
Views: 656

Re: Setting up a 401K...

I have had Fidelity for years and it's been very good. We have access to "brokeragelink" which is a feature allowing me to buy any mutual fund they are willing to sell, which is about 10,000 mutual funds. Inside the actual 401k of course you have to pick a few funds. I am not involved in setting up ...
by firebirdparts
Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not aim for a HIGH YIELDING portfolio?
Replies: 60
Views: 5659

Re: Why not aim for a HIGH YIELDING portfolio?

FrankLUSMC wrote: Tue Jul 30, 2019 9:42 am In a taxable portfolio, my experience has been that buying a high yield security usually give lots of tax loss harvesting opportunity. 8-)
Yes!
by firebirdparts
Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not aim for a HIGH YIELDING portfolio?
Replies: 60
Views: 5659

Re: Why not aim for a HIGH YIELDING portfolio?

I am a little disturbed about the level of discussion about stockholders arbitraging out the price of the stock before and after the ex dividend date. So I will ignore that. It's not an interesting process. The dividend money comes out of the bank. Again, not an interesting process. If a company has...
by firebirdparts
Mon Jul 29, 2019 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Need cash, pause 401k contributions or contribute->401k loan
Replies: 18
Views: 1128

Re: Need cash, pause 401k contributions or contribute->401k loan

To the original question, mathematically it doesn't make much difference. This is like a lot of things in life, the box tops and reward points and all that don't matter a whole lot. Shifting money between pockets, in this case, is going to cost you extra (now) because the current you has to pay inte...
by firebirdparts
Sun Jul 28, 2019 1:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors Are Usually Wrong. A NYT Columnist (Finally) Admits He's One of Them.
Replies: 53
Views: 7495

Re: Investors Are Usually Wrong. A NYT Columnist (Finally) Admits He's One of Them.

embarrassed himself here: The Dalbar results for 2018 are especially painful to contemplate. The inflation rate was 1.93 percent, so investors would have had to earn that just to tread water. Instead, the average stock fund investor lost 9.42 percent, for a gap of more than 11 percentage points. Sou...
by firebirdparts
Thu Jul 25, 2019 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 442286

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Okay so I did an experiment today where I bought more PSLDX at Fido, but I already owned some. If I search for it, I can't pull it up. But by starting with what I already own, and clicking the trade button, it allowed me to buy more. FWIW.
by firebirdparts
Thu Jul 25, 2019 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bucket Approach
Replies: 84
Views: 8932

Re: The Bucket Approach

+1. It confuses the heck out of me. I'm mathematically challenged and it just seems to make things more complicated. I'll be happy to just have an asset allocation I can live with and take out a sustainable percentage for expenses each year. The simpler the better for this simple-minded investor. :...
by firebirdparts
Thu Jul 25, 2019 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bucket Approach
Replies: 84
Views: 8932

Re: The Bucket Approach

It's a good question, and to me, it's sort of appealing. I have this attitude that after some broad basket of equities declined a lot, then I want to be more invested in those cheaper equities. For most of my life, that ideal was 100%, but I am still working. There's a big difference between the acc...
by firebirdparts
Thu Jul 25, 2019 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9396
Views: 751518

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I'll bet that some feel that the current market is a 'melt- up '. The thought crossed my mind. I was in the Fido account yesterday looking at funds, and I thought "I will look for a Fido mid cap index fund" and so when I looked at the assets in this fund over the last few years, I was thinking "wel...
by firebirdparts
Wed Jul 24, 2019 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bucket Approach
Replies: 84
Views: 8932

Re: The Bucket Approach

I thought this was interesting: http://livingoffyourmoney.com/ The free preview is actually pretty adequate in itself. It's surprising, really, just how little difference reasonable and rational technique makes. In the end you still have a SWR of 4%. Spoiler: The "three bucket" strategy turned out h...
by firebirdparts
Wed Jul 24, 2019 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PV - What is "maximize return subject to volatility"?
Replies: 3
Views: 401

Re: PV - What is "maximize return subject to volatility"?

The reason for its ability to maximize return is just ordinary hindsight. I don't know how you apply that to the future.

If you click on the asset allocations tab you can see how it moved the money around.
by firebirdparts
Wed Jul 24, 2019 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth
Replies: 200
Views: 16939

Re: Roth > Taxable > tIRA

grayfox wrote: Wed Jul 24, 2019 6:53 amClearly it is better to have $1,565,000 in a Roth than $2,000,000 in tIRA
You keep using that word, clearly.

Clearly, you're not good at math.
by firebirdparts
Wed Jul 24, 2019 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth
Replies: 200
Views: 16939

Re: Roth > Taxable > tIRA

I don't think it's so clear that you want to pay taxes now vs. later. That's very much an individual thing. Personally, I am doing everything Roth including my 401k, but that's me.
by firebirdparts
Mon Jul 22, 2019 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One bad decision - examples?
Replies: 67
Views: 7689

Re: One bad decision - examples?

My worst decision - though I didn't "lose" money on it - was selling Apple when I did. I bought 100 shares of Apple for ~ $14 a share in c. 2002-2003 (Can't remember the exact date). I subsequently sold it within 12-18 months or so (again, can't remember the exact timing of it all) when it was arou...
by firebirdparts
Sun Jul 21, 2019 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One bad decision - examples?
Replies: 67
Views: 7689

Re: One bad decision - examples?

And sometimes they are just lost opportunity only. If you go to cash at any time you forego the alternative but I’d say it’s december 2008 the lost opportunity is more harmful.
by firebirdparts
Sat Jul 20, 2019 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has DFA failed to innovate and keep up
Replies: 59
Views: 5723

Re: Has DFA failed to innovate and keep up

they've done very poorly since the first of the year. So that's just noise, and it's been bad noise.
by firebirdparts
Sat Jul 20, 2019 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting Worth it?
Replies: 176
Views: 14338

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting Worth it?

Lastly, is TLH worth it? I'm in the 15% capital gains bracket. It's my understanding that TLH defers taxes to the future due to a lower cost basis on the shares sold and then bought. Awesome. It does my heart good to know somebody actually understands it. Would I do it? No. You can. I'm not very op...
by firebirdparts
Sat Jul 20, 2019 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One bad decision - examples?
Replies: 67
Views: 7689

Re: One bad decision - examples?

If you really are going to wipe out something, you need individual stocks to do that. Companies go bankrupt all the time. I could list some examples of bankrupt companies that have huge market caps, but you probably already know who they are. Past examples listed above. They don't have to be publicl...
by firebirdparts
Fri Jul 19, 2019 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Crypto Offline Wallet (from security perspective)
Replies: 3
Views: 908

Re: Best Crypto Offline Wallet (from security perspective)

Pretty sad using the word “political” When you really mean “other people shut up.” You should be ashamed of yourself.