Search found 1766 matches

by firebirdparts
Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6570
Views: 617812

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Are you using the adaptive allocation method ? So overall you get a -5.5% performance if I'm not wrong There are 4 methods in there for adaptive allocation timing models. Risk parity and inverse volatility are the same one in this case, so it's really just 3 in this case. The other two are "minimum...
by firebirdparts
Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is entrepreneurship anti-Boglehead?
Replies: 41
Views: 2537

Re: Is entrepreneurship anti-Boglehead?

Risk aversion is just tied up in personality. A person who wants low-risk investments might also like to have a low-risk career. That's the only connection I can see. We all have idiosycratic risk with respect to our paycheck, but of course that's different from having your net worth be a business. ...
by firebirdparts
Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All Weather leveraged stomps Hedgefundie and other portfolios !
Replies: 129
Views: 9407

Re: All Weather leveraged stomps Hedgefundie and other portfolios !

Given the current realities for bonds, and the availability of all sorts of 3X funds, and would it make sense to : A. Fudge toward higher equities? B Try to simulate this through the 1970's? Even if this does outperform the HF in the 1970's, and I'm sure it would, I really don't like presuming gold ...
by firebirdparts
Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9365
Views: 746727

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

fatcoffeedrinker wrote: Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:51 pm
No, it will be which 3x levered FOREX ETF should I buy. 😄
Which 3X bear funds do I short?
by firebirdparts
Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would it take to cause a QQQ Collapse?
Replies: 60
Views: 5818

Re: What would it take to cause a QQQ Collapse?

Just what the question says. I think we have moved past issues that caused the dotcom bubble (perhaps tech is overvalued overall but not to the same extent) so I am genuinely curious about what you think could happen where investors en mass abandon the sector, and where they would move their money ...
by firebirdparts
Thu Jul 30, 2020 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Downturn Protection and Index Fund Inefficiencies
Replies: 26
Views: 1886

Re: Downturn Protection and Index Fund Inefficiencies

I recently watched a video from morningstar on the role of actively managed funds in our economy. In it, the speaker says... Actively managed funds are here to stay because they still beat index funds in 2 main aspects; downturn protection and exposing inefficiencies in index funds. It's a misconce...
by firebirdparts
Thu Jul 30, 2020 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ridiculously Misleading Headline About the Q2 GDP
Replies: 28
Views: 2292

Re: Ridiculously Misleading Headline About the Q2 GDP

As long as we have an additional global catastrophe each quarter, they should be right on the money.
by firebirdparts
Thu Jul 30, 2020 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All Weather leveraged stomps Hedgefundie and other portfolios !
Replies: 129
Views: 9407

Re: All Weather with utilities vs All Weather Leveraged !

These strategies seem like they were born of backtests, not a fundamental model. I am skeptical they will perform well going forward. Surely you realize that it is easy to get impressive backtests if you have any vague memory of past behavior of asset classes, and are allowed to do an unlimited num...
by firebirdparts
Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9365
Views: 746727

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

lostdog wrote: Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:19 pm Can the bulls win the tug of war before the bell? We will see...
Indeed. That was quite a surge in the morning. I think they just went to get a hot dog for the past hour, but we'll see.
by firebirdparts
Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Disappointed with Fidelity's Online Interface
Replies: 69
Views: 6325

Re: Disappointed with Fidelity's Online Interface

I don't mind it at all. Fidelity, I suppose, doesn't really use it to cater to any specific kind of investors. I started primarily with a 401k, and so my actions in the 401k were boring, and the bar was pretty low. I am satisfied with it.
by firebirdparts
Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9365
Views: 746727

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Taking off now.
by firebirdparts
Wed Jul 29, 2020 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6570
Views: 617812

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

mjuszczak wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:36 pm Is anyone still doing the 55/45 UPRO/TMF method? Just curious.

Yeah. As mentioned, what would you ever need to post about it?
by firebirdparts
Tue Jul 28, 2020 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 370
Views: 26108

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Gold hit $1600 going the other way? I don't think anybody's going to be able to predict that from where we are now.

I do think it's high. I'm glad I am not buying it right now.
by firebirdparts
Tue Jul 28, 2020 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6570
Views: 617812

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Besides TYD and EDV, are there any other alternatives? If yields aren't going below zero, honestly, cash would be an alternative. It's not correlated with UPRO. I am not saying I've given up on TMF, but I will say I don't expect much. I'm like the guy that told Graucho Marx you don't make much mone...
by firebirdparts
Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9365
Views: 746727

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Stock futures, yet again....
Image
by firebirdparts
Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6570
Views: 617812

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I think the longer a thread gets, the higher the percentage of new posts asking what the thread is about. Which in this thread is like 100% now.
by firebirdparts
Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6570
Views: 617812

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

A couple questions after reading through much of this: 1) Things can change and no such thing as a free lunch, etc. etc., but doesn't the Fed saying rates will stay near zero for the next 2+ years remove one of the main risks of this approach? 2) Because of circuit breakers I get that you can't get...
by firebirdparts
Fri Jul 24, 2020 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Arkansas Teachers sues Allianz Global Investors over absolute-return strategies
Replies: 27
Views: 2603

Re: Arkansas Teachers sues Allianz Global Investors over absolute-return strategies

JBTX wrote: Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:47 pm So a fund that significantly beat the market in an up market tanked in a down market. I think they should rename in the Beta fund.
This times 1000. The person you blame is whoever listened to the lawyers who wanted to sue. It's just pure ignorance.
by firebirdparts
Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9365
Views: 746727

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

lostdog wrote: Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:30 am Starting in the red today. No Tesla party....
That would be a good illustration of "priced in", if there was such a thing.
by firebirdparts
Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Benefits of NTSX Exhausted due to Low Treasury Yields?
Replies: 14
Views: 1077

Re: Benefits of NTSX Exhausted due to Low Treasury Yields?

Every time rates drop, I keep wondering if there's any more juice in the orange. I've been wondering that for years now, and so I don't really expect anybody else to be able to somehow answer the question. There's room to run in this stupid planet-of-the-apes timeline that we live in now.
by firebirdparts
Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insiders Who Nailed Market Bottom Are Starting to Sell Stocks
Replies: 33
Views: 5064

Re: Insiders Who Nailed Market Bottom Are Starting to Sell Stocks

Insiders? Isn't insider trading illegal? Company executives have to sell a lot of stock, because they get paid with so much of it. They have specific dates they can do it, and they publicly announce it. The public announcement allows you to determine what you think of what they think, if you're so ...
by firebirdparts
Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9365
Views: 746727

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Stinky wrote: Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:46 pm I just love it that Bogleheads, supposedly the paragons of “buy and hold”, have posted about 75 times on this thread in the last 24 hours.

For a buy and hold crowd, there’s a lot of minute by minute market watching going on. :D
The top.... is in.
by firebirdparts
Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9365
Views: 746727

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I don't get the love for the "guru Joe Schmuckatelli says do this clickbait" articles that get posted here, but as I've said before, if people really did stop that, there wouldn't be any posting. "lint salesman who predicted covid says buy this stock" I think the level of alarm is pretty modest. You...
by firebirdparts
Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9365
Views: 746727

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Saw this on Reddit r/investing, credit goes to user u/xkcd_fan. I thought it's funny and pretty much sums it up. https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/husoq2/nasdaq_hits_all_time_closing_high_sp_500_highest/ Nasdaq hits all time closing high, S&P 500 highest close since February 21st The mark...
by firebirdparts
Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan, 1989
Replies: 161
Views: 46110

Re: Japan, 1989

When this thread was created, they didn’t know that the sp500 was again in that process where you double and double again in the space of a decade. We just have to do the best we can. Japan shows us where you can have a sequence of returns cycle that is really slow. When you look at market cap it lo...
by firebirdparts
Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 370
Views: 26108

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Forester wrote: Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:59 am
Start @1hr23min
Holy cow.
by firebirdparts
Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Convince me not to sell all my US equities to Cash temporarily
Replies: 135
Views: 11418

Re: Convince me not to sell all my US equities to Cash temporarily

If you are 36 and have anything like 500k, then you’re already rich. As you know, if it’s really 6 months, then yes you’ll still be rich. The rest is just details. Know that behavioral issues have happened to other people, and they are trying to help you. That is the big danger here. 6 months go by,...
by firebirdparts
Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dark side of Pretax 401Ks and IRAs
Replies: 90
Views: 8495

Re: Dark side of Pretax 401Ks and IRAs

Is it easier to justify paying taxes now if the money is not needed as much since you are earning wages each year? But in retirement it would seem the tax bill would be harder to pay out of your limited income. I am seeing this currently with my in-laws. It’s the opposite. The first 24000 is free. ...
by firebirdparts
Mon Jul 20, 2020 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dark side of Pretax 401Ks and IRAs
Replies: 90
Views: 8495

Re: Dark side of Pretax 401Ks and IRAs

I just invest in all three and worry about the details later. Backdoor Roth, pretax 401k, mega backdoor Roth 401k, HSA, taxable. Whatever happens in my life and with tax policy, I'll probably be able to work it out. That’s what I think. Variety. I’ll never have a mega Roth but hugeco does let me do...
by firebirdparts
Mon Jul 20, 2020 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dark side of Pretax 401Ks and IRAs
Replies: 90
Views: 8495

Re: Dark side of Pretax 401Ks and IRAs

Is it easier to justify paying taxes now if the money is not needed as much since you are earning wages each year? But in retirement it would seem the tax bill would be harder to pay out of your limited income. I am seeing this currently with my in-laws. It’s the opposite. The first 24000 is free. ...
by firebirdparts
Sun Jul 19, 2020 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dark side of Pretax 401Ks and IRAs
Replies: 90
Views: 8495

Re: Dark side of Pretax 401Ks and IRAs

This reminds me of the user here whose signature says something like "A dollar in Roth is worth more than a dollar in taxable, which is worth more than a dollar in tax-deferred." The statement is true, but it only looks at future tax costs and ignores the tax cost of putting a dollar into each of t...
by firebirdparts
Sun Jul 19, 2020 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 580
Views: 60164

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

GaryA505 wrote: Sun Jul 19, 2020 9:51 pm I have a small Roth that I will be using for the kids college expenses in about 6-10 years. Today I was toying with the idea of using 50/50 mix of PSLDX/CASH in this account. Crazy?
Not crazy. You don’t really need the cash but you be the judge. 10 years is usually considered a “long” time.
by firebirdparts
Sun Jul 19, 2020 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Puts and Mortgage Downpayment - Shoot my idea down
Replies: 51
Views: 2839

Re: Puts and Mortgage Downpayment - Shoot my idea down

People are not stupid, so Insurance will cost you. It is what it is. It’s not a philosophical question.
by firebirdparts
Fri Jul 17, 2020 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 580
Views: 60164

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

If you all are going to have a thread about this you’re going to have to ignore this guy. You don’t have to just to suit me though.
by firebirdparts
Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash Covered Puts instead of High Yield Savings for Cash
Replies: 76
Views: 5333

Re: Cash Covered Puts instead of High Yield Savings for Cash

Leesbro63 wrote: Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:07 am There has to be some big risk here somewhere
The risk is you have to buy VTI. If you are happy to buy VTI, then it's okay. You could always buy the put back and escape, but the basics are just you have to buy it at the price you set.
by firebirdparts
Thu Jul 16, 2020 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do with significant index changes, e.g., S&P 500 adding Tesla
Replies: 200
Views: 17444

Re: How to protect one's investment in an index fund when there's a new stock entering the S&P500

This is plain and simple and I hope you will take 10 seconds to compare the results of TSM and 500 index funds. You can see from this, I hope, that the S&P500 does not suffer much from people (wisely) front running changes to the index.
by firebirdparts
Thu Jul 16, 2020 11:09 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: How to hedge in case of a disaster in your country's economy
Replies: 92
Views: 6320

Re: How to hedge in case of a disaster in your country's economy

Extra info: "Fleeing" is for working people. Rich people flee toward poor countries. how about medical care, security issues, general quality of life? Even worried about the security related to my investments. If the UK becomes an emerging country all those parameters will be affected Luckily I'm A...
by firebirdparts
Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20312
Views: 2776556

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Up in arms about netflix after hours. I have no idea what'll really happen tomorrow, but right now the market has some bad news to overcome.
by firebirdparts
Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:37 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: How to hedge in case of a disaster in your country's economy
Replies: 92
Views: 6320

Re: How to hedge in case of a disaster in your country's economy

steve321 wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:03 pm Apart from having a globally diversified portfolio, ......
Wait, wut?

Extra info: "Fleeing" is for working people. Rich people flee toward poor countries.
by firebirdparts
Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Front Loading Equities
Replies: 15
Views: 663

Re: Front Loading Equities

A) Why aren't people front loading equities? Actually I think most people do, but I admit I did no poll to determine that. If people aren't doing it right now today due to market timing, honestly, I wouldn't blame them. But if you're 27 years old and we lose 50% on equities over the next six months...
by firebirdparts
Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20312
Views: 2776556

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

So SP500 has settled in about 3200 today and we're in the free fall thread? No gratitude.
by firebirdparts
Wed Jul 15, 2020 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9365
Views: 746727

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

3:30.. Time for the daily melt-up
by firebirdparts
Wed Jul 15, 2020 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9365
Views: 746727

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Look at that Russel 2000 today. Bustin' loose.
by firebirdparts
Tue Jul 14, 2020 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the stock market up? [thread multi-merge]
Replies: 521
Views: 21743

Re: Why is the stock market up? [thread multi-merge]

I don't understand why anyone would not have expected a very bumpy reopening. If you just listen to what your friends and family are saying, I would say there is a lot of mass delusion about the disease itself and about consumer spending. It doesn't do much good to talk about it. Everything that co...
by firebirdparts
Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Options Trading Basic Questions
Replies: 5
Views: 474

Re: Options Trading Basic Questions

I agree. It's not 100% clear but I think that's right, a "bullish" call spread. If so, his position originally was he bought the 2500 call and he sold the 2600 call. When you do that, you've already made up your mind to only make $100 by exercising it all. When he closed it all, he just took whateve...
by firebirdparts
Mon Jul 13, 2020 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20312
Views: 2776556

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Blue456 wrote: Sat Jul 11, 2020 10:46 am I like the prayer. As for the bubble, let it burst. We will just get cheaper equities :)
Indeed. Let them come. I have already been left far, far behind by those wiser than me, who bought Tesla for $300 a few short weeks ago.
by firebirdparts
Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6570
Views: 617812

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

With hundreds of pages its kind of hard to tell -- but is there any new consensus on the ideal rebalancing schedule for Hedgefundie's 45/55 TMF/UPRO approach? Is it 10% bands, quarterly, or something else? That is a critically important question, and I don't think there's a consensus. Having just g...